Making the Case for Shared Prosperity: Using the New Poverty, Income, and Health Insurance Data

Transcription

1 Making the Case for Shared Prosperity: Using the New Poverty, Income, and Health Insurance Data September 6, 2012 With many thanks to the Annie E. Casey Foundation, George Gund Foundation, ELCA World Hunger Grants, and anonymous donors for their generous support 1

2 Ellen Teller Director of Government Affairs, Food Research and Action Center Moderator Arloc Sherman Senior Researcher, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities 2

3 Deborah Weinstein, Executive Director, Coalition on Human Needs Making the Case for Shared Prosperity: Using the New Poverty, Income, and Health Insurance Data September 6,

4 With many thanks to the Annie E. Casey Foundation, George Gund Foundation, ELCA World Hunger Grants, and anonymous donors for their generous support Ellen Teller Director of Government Affairs, Food Research and Action Center Moderator 4

5 Arloc Sherman Senior Researcher, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Deborah Weinstein, Executive Director, Coalition on Human Needs 5

6 The 2011 Poverty and Health Insurance Numbers What to Watch For on September 12 Arloc Sherman What to Watch For Nationally If poverty up why? If uninsured down why? Importance of effective government 6

7 /7/2012 Poverty May Well Have Gone Up Not because of private-sector jobs (up 1.7%) To a considerable degree, a decline in: -- Unemployment Insurance (UI) (-$36b) -- Government jobs (down 386,000) Unemployment Insurance Kept 3.2 Million People Above the Official Poverty Line in ,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,

8 /7/2012 Unemployment Insurance Payments Fell by $36 Billion in 2011 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 billion (in 2011 dollars) Change in Nonfarm Employment By Sector, 2010 to ,000,000 +1,870,000 1,500,000 1,000, , , ,000-55, , ,000 Private All Gov t Federal State Local 8

9 If 2011 Poverty Rate Is Up, It Will Have Risen in 9 of the Last 11 Years Rise was Statistically Significant in 8 of the Last 11 Years (vs 1 Significant Decline)

10 /7/2012 The Superficial Story: Highest Poverty Rate Since 1960s? The Superficial Story: Highest Poverty Rate Since 1960s? Official (cash) 10 5 Plus noncash benefits 0 10

11 What Government Does Matters for Poverty Census will likely release data on impact of selected safety net programs in 2011 UI, Social Security (counted in official poverty measure) SNAP, EITC (non-cash, not counted) 11

12 What Government Does Matters for Health Insurance Health reform (Affordable Care Act of 2009) added coverage under age 26 for plan years on or after Sep 23, Medicaid and CHIP cover children Health Insurance Data Until Now Have Mostly Told a Story of Steady Losses Change in Percent Insured, by Type of Insurance, Total Employer-based Government-provided 12

13 Success for Government Insurance for Children Change in Percent of Children Insured, by Type of Insurance, Total Employer-based Government-provided What Government Does Matters For poverty UI benefits SNAP, EITC only counted in alternative measures Public-sector jobs For health insurance Health reform law young adults Medicaid, CHIP children 13

14 For More Using the New Poverty, Income, and Health Insurance Data 14

15 Two Surveys Current Population Survey: Wednesday, September 12 Data: for the nation, regions, states (limited) Sample size: 100,000 per year Years in use: 50 + Best use: national data: poverty, income, health insurance; state data for historical trends American Community Survey: Thursday, September 20 Data: for nation, states, localities, counties, congressional districts Sample size: 3,000,000 per year Years in use: 11; has expanded over this period. Best use: state, local data. (1 year estimates down to pop. of 65,000; 3 yr. estimates down to 20,000) Current Population Survey Release Sept. 12, 10 a.m. Day of release, you ll find the data at v The Census Bureau s Press Briefing: By phone: Toll free number: Passcode: CENSUS Note: Stay on the line until operator asks for the passcode. Do not key in passcode. Online access information: Please login early, as some setup is required. URL: m/nc/join/ Conference number: PW Audience passcode: CENSUS 15

16 Census.gov new design Click on People People menu: 16

17 Click on Income, Poverty and Health Insurance Coverage in the U.S., 2011 (on 9/12) go to Tables and Figures select Table 4 Includes gender, race, age, nativity, region, work experience, disability, family type Preliminary 2011 Poverty Thresholds People in Household Poverty Threshold 2 (average) $14,667 2, householder under 65 $15,139 2, householder over 65 $13,610 3 $17,922 4 $23,018 5 $27,274 6 $30,841 17

18 Detailed Poverty Tables POV46 Poverty Status by State Select below poverty threshold, extreme poverty, near poverty POV01. Age and Sex of All People, Family Members and Unrelated Individuals Iterated by Income-to-Poverty Ratio and Race Below 100 percent of poverty Below 50 percent of poverty Below 75 percent of poverty Below 125 percent of poverty Below 130 percent of poverty Below 135 percent of poverty Below 150 percent of poverty Below 175 percent of poverty Below 185 percent of poverty Below 200 percent of poverty Below 250 percent of poverty Below 300 percent of poverty Below 400 percent of poverty Below 500 percent of poverty Below 600 percent of poverty 18

19 Number and Percent Poor, U.S. State poverty: Select POV46, weighted person count. You can choose up to 200% FPL, age ranges, families, women-headed families. 19

20 Census Bureau expected to show estimates of anti-poverty effectiveness of UI, Social Security, EITC, SNAP Numbers of people kept out of poverty in 2010: Using official measure: Social Security: 20.3 million UI: 3.2 million Using alternate measure: EITC: 5.4 million SNAP: 3.9 million So far What you can say: Number and percentage poor in 2011, U.S. and state. U.S.: breakdowns by race, other demographics; comparison to Anti-poverty effect of UI, SNAP, low-income tax credits What you can t say, yet: Longer than 1 year time comparisons. Any state comparisons over time. State breakdowns by race and most demographics. 20

21 Help is on the way Center on Budget and Policy Priorities will supply state tables with comparisons over time, showing statistical significance. American Community Survey on Sept. 20 has lots of state breakdowns. Health Insurance Go to People health insurance, tables and figures Table 8: Uninsured by family status, race/hispanic origin, age, nativity, region, household income, work, disability 21

22 One-year trends in public or private insurance, or no insurance Uninsured by State time comparisons 22

23 American Community Survey Release date: Sept. 20 Data about poverty, employment, health insurance, income, education, housing, disability, use of public benefits Data available down to very small communities, CD s, counties; race/hispanic origin breakdowns. BUT website re-design is confusing. To Find ACS Data: Click on Data at Census.gov homepage Select American Factfinder Click on Topics (at left), select Product Types 23

24 Click on Data, then American Factfinder ACS Profile Tables Quite Helpful: 24

25 Economic Data Profile: ACS 1-year estimates - Then select Geographies (on left) - Select Geographic Type: state pick Connecticut - Add to selections; - Click on Selected Economic Conditions, 1 yr estimates Economic profiles show employment, type of work, commute, earnings, income, public benefits, health insurance, poverty 25

26 Want to compare over time? Use a Comparison Profile New data likely to go back to 2007 Want to compare across states? In American Factfinder: (clear all your other selections) Click on Topics (on left): select Ranking Tables then close that box Click on Topics again select People, then select Poverty You ll see a list of tables select R1704, 2011 ACS 1-year estimates (until 9/20, most recent is 2010) 26

27 Rankings among states and U.S. for child poverty How can the new data make the case for avoiding the Fiscal Cliff? 27

28 If Poverty rises, nationally or in your state: Points to Make: Damaging to cut vital programs like education, child care, Head Start, WIC, job training, other investments that lead to job creation. (As in automatic cuts and Ryan budget.) Revenues, Pentagon savings needed! Urgent to continue UI, SNAP, low-income tax credits, which lift millions out of poverty. Poverty levels off: Don t upset fragile progress by increasing taxes on low-income working families (Ryan budget proposals to cut EITC, Child Tax Credit). Extreme poverty rises: Especially important to protect SNAP, housing and homelessness programs. More uninsured people: Private sector is failing at providing health insurance; we need Affordable Care Act/Obamacare. If More lack private insurance, but growth in Medicaid, CHIP, Medicare: More Points: Evidence that public insurance is working should not be cut. Fewer uninsured; more people with private insurance as well as more in Medicaid, Medicare: Data shows unemployment insurance and SNAP and have lifted millions out of poverty: People with low education are disproportionately poor and unemployed; huge numbers of households pay high rents: Affordable Care Act s expansion of coverage of young adults and other ACA expansions have turned around years of increases in uninsured people. Don t let federal UI expire! Don t cut SNAP or turn it into a block grant, as proposed in Ryan budget. We need to invest in education and affordable housing. We can t make the investments we need without asking the top 2% to pay their fair share in taxes. 28

29 How to Use On day of Census release, issue a statement. Tie key findings to key messages. Write comment about coverage online in your newspaper; submit letter to the editor. Send copy of whatever you write to your Rep and Senators. Blog posts, Twitter, Facebook As an individual, attend candidates forums and ask questions using the data. What we ll provide On September 12 or before: Highlights of key findings State tables (thanks, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities!) Updated message points; LTE points After September 20 release (ACS): Highlights of key findings Links to key state data Poverty by congressional district (thanks, Half in Ten!) More LTE points 29

30 Strengthening America s Values and Economy (SAVE) For All Principles: Protect low-income and vulnerable people Promote job creation to strengthen the economy Increase revenues from fair sources Seek responsible savings from the Pentagon and other areas Letters to Congress: at Joint Letter from Groups Need thousands of groups from every state religious, service provider, labor, community, business Deadline: September 19 Individual s Anyone can send to their Rep. and Senators click and send our text or substitute your own. 30

31 PLEASE SIGN THE SAVE FOR ALL LETTER ( GET ON THE CHN LIST: ( TAKE ACTION! Thanks! Using the New Poverty, Income, and Health Insurance Data 31

32 Two Surveys Current Population Survey: Wednesday, September 12 Data: for the nation, regions, states (limited) Sample size: 100,000 per year Years in use: 50 + Best use: national data: poverty, income, health insurance; state data for historical trends American Community Survey: Thursday, September 20 Data: for nation, states, localities, counties, congressional districts Sample size: 3,000,000 per year Years in use: 11; has expanded over this period. Best use: state, local data. (1 year estimates down to pop. of 65,000; 3 yr. estimates down to 20,000) Current Population Survey Release Sept. 12, 10 a.m. Day of release, you ll find the data at v The Census Bureau s Press Briefing: By phone: Toll free number: Passcode: CENSUS Note: Stay on the line until operator asks for the passcode. Do not key in passcode. Online access information: Please login early, as some setup is required. URL: m/nc/join/ Conference number: PW Audience passcode: CENSUS 32

33 Census.gov new design Click on People People menu: 33

34 Click on Income, Poverty and Health Insurance Coverage in the U.S., 2011 (on 9/12) go to Tables and Figures select Table 4 Includes gender, race, age, nativity, region, work experience, disability, family type Preliminary 2011 Poverty Thresholds People in Household Poverty Threshold 2 (average) $14,667 2, householder under 65 $15,139 2, householder over 65 $13,610 3 $17,922 4 $23,018 5 $27,274 6 $30,841 34

35 Detailed Poverty Tables POV46 Poverty Status by State Select below poverty threshold, extreme poverty, near poverty POV01. Age and Sex of All People, Family Members and Unrelated Individuals Iterated by Income-to-Poverty Ratio and Race Below 100 percent of poverty Below 50 percent of poverty Below 75 percent of poverty Below 125 percent of poverty Below 130 percent of poverty Below 135 percent of poverty Below 150 percent of poverty Below 175 percent of poverty Below 185 percent of poverty Below 200 percent of poverty Below 250 percent of poverty Below 300 percent of poverty Below 400 percent of poverty Below 500 percent of poverty Below 600 percent of poverty 35

36 Number and Percent Poor, U.S. State poverty: Select POV46, weighted person count. You can choose up to 200% FPL, age ranges, families, women-headed families. 36

37 Census Bureau expected to show estimates of anti-poverty effectiveness of UI, Social Security, EITC, SNAP Numbers of people kept out of poverty in 2010: Using official measure: Social Security: 20.3 million UI: 3.2 million Using alternate measure: EITC: 5.4 million SNAP: 3.9 million So far What you can say: Number and percentage poor in 2011, U.S. and state. U.S.: breakdowns by race, other demographics; comparison to Anti-poverty effect of UI, SNAP, low-income tax credits What you can t say, yet: Longer than 1 year time comparisons. Any state comparisons over time. State breakdowns by race and most demographics. 37

38 Help is on the way Center on Budget and Policy Priorities will supply state tables with comparisons over time, showing statistical significance. American Community Survey on Sept. 20 has lots of state breakdowns. Health Insurance Go to People health insurance, tables and figures Table 8: Uninsured by family status, race/hispanic origin, age, nativity, region, household income, work, disability 38

39 One-year trends in public or private insurance, or no insurance Uninsured by State time comparisons 39

40 American Community Survey Release date: Sept. 20 Data about poverty, employment, health insurance, income, education, housing, disability, use of public benefits Data available down to very small communities, CD s, counties; race/hispanic origin breakdowns. BUT website re-design is confusing. To Find ACS Data: Click on Data at Census.gov homepage Select American Factfinder Click on Topics (at left), select Product Types 40

41 Click on Data, then American Factfinder ACS Profile Tables Quite Helpful: 41

42 Economic Data Profile: ACS 1-year estimates - Then select Geographies (on left) - Select Geographic Type: state pick Connecticut - Add to selections; - Click on Selected Economic Conditions, 1 yr estimates Economic profiles show employment, type of work, commute, earnings, income, public benefits, health insurance, poverty 42

43 Want to compare over time? Use a Comparison Profile New data likely to go back to 2007 Want to compare across states? In American Factfinder: (clear all your other selections) Click on Topics (on left): select Ranking Tables then close that box Click on Topics again select People, then select Poverty You ll see a list of tables select R1704, 2011 ACS 1-year estimates (until 9/20, most recent is 2010) 43

44 Rankings among states and U.S. for child poverty How can the new data make the case for avoiding the Fiscal Cliff? 44

45 If Poverty rises, nationally or in your state: Points to Make: Damaging to cut vital programs like education, child care, Head Start, WIC, job training, other investments that lead to job creation. (As in automatic cuts and Ryan budget.) Revenues, Pentagon savings needed! Urgent to continue UI, SNAP, low-income tax credits, which lift millions out of poverty. Poverty levels off: Don t upset fragile progress by increasing taxes on low-income working families (Ryan budget proposals to cut EITC, Child Tax Credit). Extreme poverty rises: Especially important to protect SNAP, housing and homelessness programs. More uninsured people: Private sector is failing at providing health insurance; we need Affordable Care Act/Obamacare. If More lack private insurance, but growth in Medicaid, CHIP, Medicare: More Points: Evidence that public insurance is working should not be cut. Fewer uninsured; more people with private insurance as well as more in Medicaid, Medicare: Data shows unemployment insurance and SNAP and have lifted millions out of poverty: People with low education are disproportionately poor and unemployed; huge numbers of households pay high rents: Affordable Care Act s expansion of coverage of young adults and other ACA expansions have turned around years of increases in uninsured people. Don t let federal UI expire! Don t cut SNAP or turn it into a block grant, as proposed in Ryan budget. We need to invest in education and affordable housing. We can t make the investments we need without asking the top 2% to pay their fair share in taxes. 45

46 How to Use On day of Census release, issue a statement. Tie key findings to key messages. Write comment about coverage online in your newspaper; submit letter to the editor. Send copy of whatever you write to your Rep and Senators. Blog posts, Twitter, Facebook As an individual, attend candidates forums and ask questions using the data. What we ll provide On September 12 or before: Highlights of key findings State tables (thanks, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities!) Updated message points; LTE points After September 20 release (ACS): Highlights of key findings Links to key state data Poverty by congressional district (thanks, Half in Ten!) More LTE points 46

47 Strengthening America s Values and Economy (SAVE) For All Principles: Protect low-income and vulnerable people Promote job creation to strengthen the economy Increase revenues from fair sources Seek responsible savings from the Pentagon and other areas Letters to Congress: at Joint Letter from Groups Need thousands of groups from every state religious, service provider, labor, community, business Deadline: September 19 Individual s Anyone can send to their Rep. and Senators click and send our text or substitute your own. 47

48 PLEASE SIGN THE SAVE FOR ALL LETTER ( GET ON THE CHN LIST: ( TAKE ACTION! Thanks! 48