3/22/2013. Seriously Important Federal Budget Choices What s Next?

Transcription

1 Seriously Important Federal Budget Choices What s Next? March 22,

2 Many Thanks to the generous supporters who make webinars like this possible: The Community Action Partnership, the Annie E. Casey Foundation, the George Gund Foundation, anonymous donors, and the members of the Coalition on Human Needs 2

3 Ellen Teller Director of Government Affairs Food Research and Action Center Moderator 3

4 Ellen Nissenbaum Senior Vice President for Government Affairs Center on Budget and Policy Priorities 4

5 Deborah Weinstein Executive Director, Coalition on Human Needs 5

6 Center on Budget and Policy Priorities FISCAL OUTLOOK: BEYOND THE BUDGET RESOLUTION FOR COALITION ON HUMAN NEEDS Ellen Nissenbaum, SVP, Gov t Affairs nissenbaum@cbpp.org March 22, 2013 cbpp.org 6

7 Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Deficit Reduction Achieved So Far $2.75 trillion in deficit reduction enacted since 2010 (not including sequestration cuts) for the years $1.6 trillion in spending largely from discretionary $0.7 trillion in revenues $0.45 trillion in interest $1.5 trillion more deficit reduction would stabilize the debt over coming decade ($1.3 trillion in policy changes, and $0.2 trillion in interest) cbpp.org 7

8 Center on Budget and Policy Priorities 70% of Recent Policy Savings to Reduce Deficits Have Come From Program Cuts Note: Calculations exclude war savings. Source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities based on data from Congressional Budget Office and FY 2014 House Budget Resolution and Committee markup. cbpp.org 8

9 Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Discretionary Programs Will Be Cut Even Deeper Under Sequestration Note: Calculations exclude war savings. Source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities based on data from Congressional Budget Office and FY 2014 House Budget Resolution and Committee markup. cbpp.org 9

10 Center on Budget and Policy Priorities cbpp.org 10

11 Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Core Principles for Sequestration Alternatives Given the December deal, any alternative must produce at least half the savings from revenues. NDD should be spared from any further cuts. If that s not possible, then most of any further discretionary spending cuts must come from defense. Low-income entitlement savings cannot be part of any alternative (spared under current law). Flexibility in implementing the sequester is NOT an acceptable replacement for a balanced alternative. Note: Calculations exclude war savings. Source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities based on data from Congressional Budget Office and FY 2014 House Budget Resolution and Committee markup. cbpp.org 11

12 Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Low-Income Entitlement Spending Outside Health Set to Fall After 2013 Note: Calculations exclude war savings. Source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities based on data from Congressional Budget Office and FY 2014 House Budget Resolution and Committee markup. cbpp.org 12

13 Center on Budget and Policy Priorities 66 Percent of Cuts in Ryan Plan Come From Programs for People With Low or Moderate Incomes Note: Calculations exclude war savings. Source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities based on data from Congressional Budget Office and FY 2014 House Budget Resolution and Committee markup. cbpp.org 13

14 Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Ryan Budget Imposes Large Cut in Non- Defense Discretionary Funding Note: Calculations exclude war savings. Source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities based on data from Congressional Budget Office and FY 2014 House Budget Resolution and Committee markup. cbpp.org 14

15 Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Ryan Budget Plan Would Slash Federal Medicaid and CHIP Funding by Nearly One-Third by 2023* Note: Calculations exclude war savings. Source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities based on data from Congressional Budget Office and FY 2014 House Budget Resolution and Committee markup. cbpp.org 15

16 Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Tax Policy Center Estimates Ryan s Specified Ryan Tax Cuts* Would Cost $5.7 Trillion Hole Note: Calculations exclude war savings. Source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities based on data from Congressional Budget Office and FY 2014 House Budget Resolution and Committee markup. cbpp.org 16

17 Center on Budget and Policy Priorities 17 Murray Budget Reduces the deficit by $1.85 trillion: 50/50 Replaces all nine years of the sequester. Reduces Medicare by $265b (no beneficiary cuts). No cost shifts or harmful changes in Medicare. Reduces discretionary spending, both defense and domestic, below the Budget Control Act caps for the next decade. Adheres to the Bowles-Simpson goal of ensuring deficit reduction does not increase poverty. Note: Calculations exclude war savings. Source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities based on data from Congressional Budget Office and FY 2014 House Budget Resolution and Committee markup. cbpp.org 17

18 Center on Budget and Policy Priorities WHAT S NEXT? Budget conference agreement or not. Obama budget April 8 th? Charm Offensive -- Negotiations? Debt Ceiling Note: Calculations exclude war savings. Source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities based on data from Congressional Budget Office and FY 2014 House Budget Resolution and Committee markup. cbpp.org 18

19 Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Major Threats to Core Low-Income Programs NDD - ¼ funds programs like WIC, Headstart, Section 8 and other domestic investments - ¼ funds important state and local programs and services Refundable tax credits -the ARRA improvements (EITC, CTC, AOTC) expire in 5 years: they should be made permanent in tax reform -threats to the structure of the credits (the refundable portion; other harmful potential changes) Medicaid - cost-shifts to states, which will undermine the implementation of ACA s Medicaid expansion; - the per capita cap SNAP Note: Calculations exclude war savings. Source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities based on data from Congressional Budget Office and FY 2014 House Budget Resolution and Committee markup. cbpp.org 19

20 Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Offers From Both GOP and White House Proposed Higher Revenues Than the American Tax Relief Act Note: Calculations exclude war savings. Source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities based on data from Congressional Budget Office and FY 2014 House Budget Resolution and Committee markup. cbpp.org 20

21 Center on Budget and Policy Priorities Core Principles for Deficit Reduction Any further budget/deficit deals should reflect that about 70% of the deficit reduction to date has come from spending cuts. Accordingly, any further deficit reduction including cancellation of sequestration must include significant new revenues Don t increase poverty or income inequality No further cuts in non-defense discretionary funding Don t shift costs to states, especially in Medicaid Note: Calculations exclude war savings. Source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities based on data from Congressional Budget Office and FY 2014 House Budget Resolution and Committee markup. cbpp.org 21

22 Q and A 22

23 Silence isn t golden. Deborah Weinstein Coalition on Human Needs 23

24 Sequestration Unemployment Insurance for long-term jobless: 10.7%cut in benefits if cut starts April 1. (or 12.8%if cut starts April 28). Head Start: 36 children dropped from Franklin and Columbus, Indiana, by lottery, out of 160 children served. Housing Vouchers: 70vouchers dropped in Columbia, Missouri, increasing waiting period to over 3 years. 47fewer families with vouchers in Chillicothe, Ohio. 700 fewer in Cook County, Illinois. 24

25 More examples 5,700 work-study students in California and 15,000 Supplemental Ed. Oppty Grant recipients in California will see $16.7m cut. 40positions cut so far in Window Rock Unified School District, Arizona; recommending another 65 positions cut and 3 schools closed. 1,600fewer women will get breast and cervical cancer screenings in New York. 200 fewer youth in Philadelphia, PA Job Corps. 25

26 Cuts won t stop in FY 2013 By FY 2021, 19% cut (adjusted for inflation) Another $55 billion each year from domestic programs But not as bad as the Ryan House budget. Dooh Nibor 26

27 POLL QUESTION What or who is DoohNibor? House Budget Chair Ryan s senior budget staffer Latin for unfairness to the poor Something to do with Sherwood Forest 27

28 What you get when you cut $5.7 trillion in taxes overwhelmingly favoring the rich, paid for by raising everybody else s taxes. AND slash $5 trillion in services, 2/3 of which help low/moderate income people. Slashes Medicaid/CHIP by $756b Slashes SNAP by $134b Slashes domestic approps $700b below sequestration 28

29 Can anything stop this? 29

30 A very different approach Murray Senate Budget Committee Budget Total Deficit Reduction = $4.25 trillion over 10 yrs. Revenues: $975b Spending + Interest savings: $975b $240b from Pentagon $275b health care $118b domestic disc. $242b interest savings 30

31 And really visionary Congressional Progressive Caucus: Creates 7m jobs in 1 year Reduces deficit by $4.4 trillion over 10 years Increased funding of domestic priorities Reduced Pentagon spending More revenues 31

32 Be Heard! 32

33 The public is with us 80% disapprove of cutting Medicaid 83% disapprove of cutting K-12 education 59% say we still need to do more to make sure the wealthy pay their fair share 66% say the richest 2% should pay more Hart Poll, after fiscal cliff deal in January Progressive Caucus way of replacing sequestration (all closing tax loopholes) most popular, when unidentified even 47% of Republicans liked it best Business Insider poll, February

34 But politicians don t care, unless WV MI 160 events March 20 MT 34

35 Allowing cuts to continue must be seen to cost too much Human cost Political cost 35

36 You can be part of press-worthy events Bring together service providers workers unemployed people faith leaders people who use (or are going without) services Local officials Business people 36

37 Messages Needed Impact of sequestration cuts Education Head Start Senior meals Housing Unemployment Insurance It s all about choices: No to Ryan budget! Yes to fair revenues Yesto Pentagon and other responsible savings 37

38 Lots of Ways Gather outside office of Rep. who voted for Ryan budget (or Senator) Hold an event at a threatened service site Hold an event outside a business getting big tax breaks Hold a vigil with faith leaders Attend a Rep s forum Hold a sarcastic bake sale 38

39 Sarcastic Bake Sale Upside-Down Priorities Cake Budget Crunch Numbers Fudge No-Meal Oatmeal Cookies Flaky Policy Pie Let Them Eat Cake Infrastructure Crumbles 39

40 Post-Recession Rebound 93% How much economic growth captured by the richest 1% in

41 We really need your help Sign up at For more info, contact Angie at Thanks! 41

42 Q and A 42

43 SURVEY Would you be willing to help work on a press event? Yes No Would you attend an event near you? Yes No Will you help find out about sequestration cuts in your state/community? Yes No Will you contact your Rep. and/or Senators to oppose cuts and support good bills? Yes No Did you find this webinar to be Very useful Pretty useful Not what I needed Did you have trouble connecting to the webinar? Yes No 43