The real mandate. November 8, 2012

Transcription

1 The real mandate November 8, 2012

2 2 Methodology and Overview This presentation is based on a survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Democracy Corps and the Campaign for America s Future. The survey of 1, presidential voters (1000 weighted) nationwide was conducted from November 6-7, 2012 the night of and night after the election. Survey results were weighted to reflect the National Exit Survey. Unless otherwise noted, margin of error= +/-3.1 percentage points at 95% confidence. This presentation is part of a larger set of several unique election night surveys that Democracy Corps has partnered with a range of progressive groups.

3 The election was a battle for the middle class 2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 3

4 4 The pervasive party brand context Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so. President Congress Parties Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Mean: 53.0 Mean: 47.9 Mean: 45.9 Mean: 40.2 Mean: 49.4 Mean: 44.0 Net: +9 Net: +2 Net: -9 Net: -17 Net: +1 Net: Barack Obama Mitt Romney Democrats in Congress Republican Congress Democratic Party Republican Party

5 Election battle for middle class: Obama won it 5 Now I am going to ask you something different. I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Barack Obama or the Mitt Romney would do a better job with this issue Restoring the middle class Obama much better Romney much better Restoring the middle class Obama Romney

6 And big leads on Medicare and Social Security 6 Now I am going to ask you something different. I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Barack Obama or the Mitt Romney would do a better job with this issue Obama much better Romney much better Medicare Social Security Obama Romney Obama Romney

7 7 Most important for future of middle class? Jobs, debt and protecting middle class retirement Both Barack Obama and Mitt Romney said in their campaigns that this election is about the future of the middle class. That was the big choice. Now, that the election is over, which THREE of the following are the most important things for us to focus on? Percent saying most important thing (top 3) Creating jobs and getting the economy going Reducing the federal deficit and lowering debt for future generations Protecting middle class retirement benefits including Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security Investing more in education and training Helping small businesses with access to credit and reduced red tape Reducing the influence of special interest money in politics Implementing the new health care law to reduce health care costs Investing in alternative energy and strengthening infrastructure for extreme weather Increasing the minimum wage and empowering workers to get higher pay and benefits Breaking up the big banks and prosecuting those who caused the financial crisis Investing in rebuilding our roads, transportation, and economic infrastructure

8 8 The Rising American Electorate: jobs and economy and middle class retirement Rising American Electorate Percent saying most important thing (top 3) Creating jobs and getting the economy going Protecting middle class retirement benefits including Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security Reducing the federal deficit and lowering debt for future generations Investing more in education and training Investing in alternative energy and strengthening infrastructure for extreme weather Helping small businesses with access to credit and reduced red tape Increasing the minimum wage and empowering workers to get higher pay and benefits Implementing the new health care law to reduce health care costs Reducing the influence of special interest money in politics Breaking up the big banks and prosecuting those who caused the financial crisis Investing in rebuilding our roads, transportation, and economic infrastructure

9 They voted economy and jobs 2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 9

10 10 Want long-term plans especially plan to invest and rebuild Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so. Mean: 81.9 Net: +72 Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Mean: 80.5 Net: A plan to invest in new industries and rebuild the country and create jobs over the next five years A plan to dramatically reduce the deficit to allow the economy to grow over the next five years

11 #1 reason people voted for Obama brought us through economic crisis Now let me read you a list reasons to support Barack Obama. Which THREE describe the most important reasons why you voted for Barack Obama? Took out Osama bin Laden and ended wars in Iraq and Afghanistan Respect him as a leader Leadership and National Security Passed Affordable Health Care Act for all Will protect Medicare and Social Security from cuts Social Insurance Brought America through the economic crisis and needs more time 33 Rescued U.S. auto industry His jobs plan for American energy, auto efficiency, infrastructure and more teachers Economic Action Will get millionaires to pay higher taxes and pay fair share 19 For Planned Parenthood, preventive health care and pay equity for women Stood up for minorities and equal rights, like the Dream Act Support Women and Minorities

12 Populist mood 2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 12

13 13 Voters not warm to Wall Street, richest 1 percent Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so. Mean: 42.4 Net: -12 Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Mean: 42.5 Net: The richest 1 percent Wall Street

14 Voted against Romney because out-of-touch and for the rich above all Let me read you a list of doubts about Mitt Romney. Regardless of how you voted, which THREE describe the most important reasons NOT to vote for Mitt Romney? His statement that he doesn't care about the "47 percent" With the rich and out of touch with average people Wants more tax cuts for the wealthy Closed companies and shipped jobs abroad when CEO of Bain Capital For the Bush trickle down policies that caused the economic crash Would repeal Obamacare Plan to change Medicare and raise costs for seniors Changed positions so often we don't know what he believes Stands for Tea Party Republicans who produce gridlock in Washington Being against Planned Parenthood and preventive health services for women Would increase military spending and let generals decide whether to keep troops in Afghanistan For rich and out of touch Threats to Social Insurance Leadership Qualities Women Foreign Policy 14

15 And for white non-college? Bain and not for average folks, but Planned Parenthood matters too Let me read you a list of doubts about Mitt Romney. Regardless of how you voted, which THREE describe the most important reasons NOT to vote for Mitt Romney? His statement that he doesn't care about the "47 percent" With the rich and out of touch with average people Wants more tax cuts for the wealthy Closed companies and shipped jobs abroad when CEO of Bain Capital For the Bush trickle down policies that caused the economic crash Would repeal Obamacare Plan to change Medicare and raise costs for seniors Changed positions so often we don't know what he believes Stands for Tea Party Republicans who produce gridlock in Washington Being against Planned Parenthood and preventive health services for women Would increase military spending and let generals decide whether to keep troops in Afghanistan White non-college For rich and out of touch Threats to Social Insurance Leadership Qualities Women Foreign Policy 15

16 And for RAE? Think Planned Parenthood, 47 percent and Medicare Let me read you a list of doubts about Mitt Romney. Regardless of how you voted, which THREE describe the most important reasons NOT to vote for Mitt Romney? His statement that he doesn't care about the "47 percent" With the rich and out of touch with average people Wants more tax cuts for the wealthy Closed companies and shipped jobs abroad when CEO of Bain Capital For the Bush trickle down policies that caused the economic crash Would repeal Obamacare Plan to change Medicare and raise costs for seniors Changed positions so often we don't know what he believes Stands for Tea Party Republicans who produce gridlock in Washington Being against Planned Parenthood and preventive health services for women Would increase military spending and let generals decide whether to keep troops in Afghanistan Rising American Electorate For rich and out of touch Threats to Social Insurance Leadership Qualities Women Foreign Policy 16

17 Defeating austerity and entitlement cuts 2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 17

18 The structure of the argument The choice The personal cost Short-sighted and long-term Reform and cuts Populist plan 18

19 19 The choice: by more than 2 to 1, voters want to grow the economy over reducing deficits After the election, the president and the new leaders of the Congress are going to discuss what to do about the economy and budget. I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. For each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. The biggest priority after the election is for leaders to work to grow the economy. Strongly The biggest priority after the election is for leaders to work on a plan to reduce our deficits. Strongly Grow the economy Reduce deficits

20 20 Among progressive base, margin even greater After the election, the president and the new leaders of the Congress are going to discuss what to do about the economy and budget. I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. For each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. The biggest priority after the election is for leaders to work to grow the economy. 65 Rising American Electorate Strongly +38 The biggest priority after the election is for leaders to work on a plan to reduce our deficits. Strongly Grow the economy Reduce deficits

21 21 Focusing first on personal costs of cuts: statements at parity After the election, the president and the new leaders of the Congress are going to discuss what to do about the economy and budget. I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. For each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. Our first priority should be putting people back to work. In a weak economy, laying off teachers, closing schools and firehouses, cutting health care for parents and grandparents makes it harder to reduce the deficit. Severe cuts will drive us back into a recession as Britain and Spain have learned. Strongly Our first priority should be cutting spending and deficits. The deficit weighs down our economy, undermines business confidence and to meet our obligations. If we keep running up deficits, we risk our credit rating like Greece and go deeper in debt to China. Strongly Back to work Cut spending

22 22 Short-sighted and long-term: progressive argument warning against slashing spending draws even After the election, the president and the new leaders of the Congress are going to discuss what to do about the economy and budget. I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. For each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. Slashing spending now is short-sighted. It will cost millions of jobs, force cuts in schools, child nutrition and Medicare and Social Security benefits. Our children will find jobs harder to find, and will lose skills vital to compete in global economy. And more people out of work will make it harder to reduce the deficit. Strongly Spending and adding to the deficit is shortsighted. Eventually, our credit rating will fall, interest rates will go up, and our economy will slow. Our children will be left with a higher debt burden, deeper in debt to foreign creditors, and more difficult for future generations to compete in the global economy. Strongly Slashing spending is short-sighted Adding to deficit is short-sighted

23 23 Reform and targeted cuts, then investment: dominates After the election, the president and the new leaders of the Congress are going to discuss what to do about the economy and budget. I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. For each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. It is important to cut seriously wasteful spending and abolish special interest tax breaks and subsidies so that we can invest in infrastructure and technology and make sure we can support education, Medicare and Social Security, which are key to the middle class. It is important to cut spending seriously, and that will require across-the-board reductions in the size of government and the programs it supports. Our current path is unsustainable and we need broad cuts-- including education, Medicare, and Social Security Strongly +43 Strongly Reform and invest Across-the-board cuts

24 24 Populist plan, while protecting retirement: dominant in context of entitlements After the election, the president and the new leaders of the Congress are going to discuss what to do about the economy and budget. I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. For each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. The wealthiest have used tax breaks and loopholes to pay lower tax rates than middle class families. Any new plan to address the deficit should start by closing corporate loopholes and raising taxes for those at the top. A deficit plan should not include cuts in Medicare or Social Security. Strongly Everybody has to be willing to pay in order to get a long-term deficit reduction plan that will help America take off again. That means closing tax loopholes to raise more revenue, but also getting entitlement spending under control, including reducing the growth of Social Security and Medicare. Strongly Populist Everyone should pay

25 Even without entitlements, can win austerity argument to invest Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements about the health care reform law. After I read them, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. We should avoid immediate drastic cuts in spending, and instead, we need serious investments that create jobs and make us more prosperous in the long term that will reduce our debt, too. The only way to restore prosperity and market confidence is to dramatically reduce government spending and our long-term deficits. Serious investments strongly +9 Reduce spending/deficits strongly Serious investments Reduce spending/deficits *Note: From Democracy Corps National Post Election Survey with the Economy Media Project, November 6-7,

26 Mandate is opposite of Simpson-Bowles 2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 26

27 Key elements of S-B deemed unacceptable to voters It is possible that President Obama and Republican leaders will reach a deal for 4 trillion dollars in deficit reduction over the next 10 years. Let me ask you about some things that might be in this deal. After you hear each one, please tell me whether it is acceptable or unacceptable to you as part of an overall package of deficit reduction. Acceptable Total Unacceptable Net Capping Medicare payments, forcing seniors to pay more Requiring deep cuts in domestic programs without protecting programs for infants, poor children, schools and college aid Cutting discretionary spending, like education, child nutrition, worker training, and disease control Not raising taxes on the rich Lowering top tax rates for the rich and corporations Continuing to tax investors' income at lower rates than workers pay Reducing Social Security benefits over time by having them rise more slowly than the cost of living

28 Wide agreement on taxing the rich and shutting down tax havens abroad; majority says not taxing rich is very unacceptable It is possible that President Obama and Republican leaders will reach a deal for 4 trillion dollars in deficit reduction over the next 10 years. Let me ask you about some things that might be in this deal. After you hear each one, please tell me whether it is acceptable or unacceptable to you as part of an overall package of deficit reduction. Acceptable Total Unacceptable Net Creating a higher tax rate on those earning over one million dollars a year Raising taxes on the richest 2 percent, while keeping taxes low for middle class and working people Shutting down tax havens abroad by putting a minimum tax on corporate profits reported overseas Not raising taxes on the rich

29 Voters want to protect Social Security and Medicare It is possible that President Obama and Republican leaders will reach a deal for 4 trillion dollars in deficit reduction over the next 10 years. Let me ask you about some things that might be in this deal. After you hear each one, please tell me whether it is acceptable or unacceptable to you as part of an overall package of deficit reduction. Acceptable Total Unacceptable Net Save Medicare costs by negotiating lower drug prices from drug companies Capping Medicare payments, forcing seniors to pay more Reducing Social Security benefits over time by having them rise more slowly than the cost of living

30 Cuts to military and subsidies for Big Oil acceptable but not those that affect the middle class and working people It is possible that President Obama and Republican leaders will reach a deal for 4 trillion dollars in deficit reduction over the next 10 years. Let me ask you about some things that might be in this deal. After you hear each one, please tell me whether it is acceptable or unacceptable to you as part of an overall package of deficit reduction. Acceptable Total Unacceptable Net Cut military spending by ending the war in Afghanistan Cut subsidies to oil companies, agribusiness, and multinational corporations Cutting discretionary spending, like education, child nutrition, worker training, and disease control

31 31 Voters bottom line: protect Medicare and Social Security not part of deficit solution Now I'm going to read you a pair of statements about the health care reform law. After I read them, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. The federal deficit is a big national problem but we should not make major spending cuts in Social Security and Medicare. Don't cut much more The exploding federal deficit is such a national crisis that we have to cut spending broadly, including possible future cuts to Social Security and Medicare spending Must cut much more Don't cut Medicare/Social Security Must cut Medicare/Social Security

32 Mandate from election: jobs and protecting Medicare much more than deficits Now I'm going to read you some pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. Given where our economy is, we should invest now in infrastructure, education and technology, and re-hiring teachers and firefighters to get people back to work to make our country stronger in the long-term. Given where our economy is, we should cut government spending and reduce the federal deficit that weighs down our economy and give confidence to businesses to invest and create jobs. Given where our economy is, we should do everything we can to help the middle class, and that means protecting Medicare and Social Security. Given where our economy is, we should cut government spending and reduce the federal deficit that weighs down our economy and give confidence to businesses to invest and create jobs. +9 Strongly Strongly Invest now Cut spending/deficit Help middle class Cut spending/deficit *Note: From Democracy Corps National Post Election Survey with the Economy Media Project, November 6-7,

33 Obama needs a jobs agenda 2012 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 33

34 Romney vote from jobs and economic plans, as well as cutting spending Now let me read you a list reasons to support Mitt Romney. Which THREE describe the most important reasons why you voted for Mitt Romney? Successful businessman who knows how to manage and create jobs Plan to expand offshore oil drilling, coal, and natural gas on federal lands Plan to cut taxes across the board Economic plans Will protect small businesses from taxes and regulation 23 Compassionate and religious man Worked with both Democrats and Republicans Leadership qualities Will tackle reform of Medicare and Social Security 11 Plan to cut spending and reduce national debt Ending culture of dependency by cutting food stamps and welfare Government and spending Will repeal Obamacare 33 I don't want four more years of Barack Obama

35 Only 44 % of Election Day voters chose Obama on creating jobs 35 Now I am going to ask you something different. I am going to read a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Barack Obama or the Mitt Romney would do a better job with this issue. Obama much better Romney much better Obama Romney Obama Romney Creating jobs The economy

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