CONSENT ITEMS (TO BE ACTED UPON BY A SINGLE MOTION) 1. Approve Community and Senior Services Commission Minutes of September 26, 2017

Transcription

1 Tom Picraux, Chair Ray Blockie, Vice Chair Maureen Heath, Commissioner Lisa Marshik, Commissioner Lydia Norcia, Commissioner Danice Picraux, Commissioner Sawye Raygani, Student Commissioner MEETING CALLED TO ORDER ROLL CALL COMMISSIONER REPORTS TOWN OF LOS GATOS COMMUNITY AND SENIOR SERVICES COMMISSION MEETING October 24, 2017 Town Council Chambers 110 East Main Street LOS GATOS, CA :00 p.m. CONSENT ITEMS (TO BE ACTED UPON BY A SINGLE MOTION) 1. Approve Community and Senior Services Commission Minutes of September 26, 2017 VERBAL COMMUNICATIONS (Members of the public may address the Community and Senior Services Commission on any matter that is not listed on the agenda. Unless additional time is authorized by the Community and Senior Services Commission, remarks shall be limited to three minutes.) OTHER BUSINESS (Up to three minutes may be allotted to each speaker on any of the following items.) 2. Update from LGS Recreation, Janet Sumpter 3. Update on West Valley Senior Transportation Pilot Program a. Tylor Taylor, Saratoga Area Senior Coordinating Council 4. Community and Senior Services Town website update 5. Community Connections Site Visit a. Live Oak Adult Day Services, Lydia Norcia - Attachment 1 6. Age-Friendly Cities initiative follow up to Town Council prioritization a. - transportation b. - infographic c. - emergency preparedness 7. Continuation of discussion of CSSC roles and responsibilities 8. Opportunity to discuss 2017 Accomplishments and 2018 Goals and Objectives 9. Staff Liaison Report a. Joint Venture Silicon Valley report entitled, Preparing for a Silicon Valley Retirement Surge Attachment 2 b. Los Gatos Mayor and Vice Mayor Reception Attachment 3 ADJOURNMENT IN COMPLIANCE WITH THE AMERICANS WITH DISABILITIES ACT, IF YOU NEED SPECIAL ASSISTANCE TO PARTICIPATE IN THIS MEETING, PLEASE CONTACT THE CLERK DEPARTMENT AT (408) NOTIFICATION 48 HOURS BEFORE THE MEETING WILL ENABLE THE TOWN TO MAKE REASONABLE ARRANGEMENTS TO ENSURE ACCESSIBILITY TO THIS MEETING [28 CFR ] Page 1 of 1

2 TOWN OF LOS GATOS Community and Senior Services Commission MEETING DATE: 09/26/2017 ITEM NO: 1 DRAFT MINUTES OF THE COMMUNITY AND SENIOR SERVICES COMMISSION MEETING September 26, 2017 The Community and Senior Services Commission of the Town of Los Gatos conducted a Regular Meeting on Tuesday, September 26, 2017, at 5:00 p.m. MEETING CALLED TO ORDER ROLL CALL Present: Vice Chair Blockie, Commissioner Heath, Commissioner Norcia, Commissioner Marshik, and Youth Commissioner Rugani Absent: Chair T. Picraux, Commissioner D. Picraux Also Present: Arn Andrews, Ryan Baker, Janet Sumpter COMMISSIONER REPORTS Commissioner Heath indicated that she would be attending the Age-friendly Community Conversations Survey meeting on September 27 th. CONSENT ITEMS (TO BE ACTED UPON BY A SINGLE MOTION) 1. Approve Community and Senior Services Commission Minutes of July 25, 2017 MOTION: Motion by Commissioner Norcia to approve the minutes of July 25, Seconded by Commissioner Blockie. VERBAL COMMUNICATIONS (Members of the public may address the Arts and Culture Commission on any matter that is not listed on the agenda. Unless additional time is authorized by the Arts and Cultural Commission, remarks shall be limited to three minutes.) - Janet Sumpter of LGS Rec provided the Commission with the October 2017, 55 Plus Program Newsletter and discussed the upcoming RYDE program. - Representatives of Swenson Builders discussed a proposed Senior Housing Development under consideration. They stated it would be a mix of memory care and assisted living units. 110 E. Main Street Los Gatos, CA

3 PAGE 2 OF 3 OTHER BUSINESS (Up to three minutes may be allotted to each speaker on any of the following items.) 2. Update on West Valley Senior Transportation Pilot Program a. Tylor Taylor, Saratoga Area Senior Coordinating Council Tylor Taylor did not attend the meeting. No presentation. 3. Community and Senior Services Town website update a. Discuss and appoint additional member to website working group Youth Commissioner Rugani was assigned to working group with Commissioners Norcia and Marshik 4. Community Connections Site Visit a. West Valley Community Services, Ray Blockie Commissioner Blockie shared he was impressed with the overall quality of the operation. Indicated that the organization was able to show measurable services increases in Los Gatos between 2015 and Discussion of CSSC roles and responsibilities a. CSSC resolution b. Commissioner Handbook excerpts c. General Plan Human Services Element Liaison Andrews walked through the documents and explained there relevance to each other and how/when they intersect with the Town Council Accomplishments and 2018 Goals and Objectives a. Discuss and appoint working group members The Commissioner formed two teams. Team 1 is to focus on Goals and Objectives for Team 1 consists of Commissioners Norcia, Blockie and Heath. Team 2 is to focus on accomplishments for Team 2 consists of Commissioners Picraux, Marshik and Chair Picraux. ADJOURNMENT The meeting adjourned at 6:08pm. C:\Users\lseastrom\Desktop\10.24 CSSC\CSSC Minutes.DRAFT.docx

4 PAGE 3 OF 3 Prepared by: Arn Andrews C:\Users\lseastrom\Desktop\10.24 CSSC\CSSC Minutes.DRAFT.docx

5 Special Report PREPARING FOR A SILICON VALLEY RETIREMENT SURGE October 2017 SILICON VALLEY INSTITUTE for REGIONAL STUDIES This publication is one in a series of research briefs published by the Silicon Valley Institute for Regional Studies. These briefs present data of timely significance for decision-makers in Silicon Valley and the broader Bay Area.

6 Contents Introduction... 3 Summary of Findings... 3 Trends in Labor Force Participation... 4 Likely Retirement Trends to Population Projections to Implications for the Workforce and the Economy Preparing for a Silicon Valley Retirement Surge

7 Introduction Silicon Valley 1 has a rapidly aging population 2 and will soon face a surge in retirements, leaving a large number of job vacancies. This will occur at a time when job growth is expected to continue, albeit at a slower rate than in the booming post-recession recovery period and subsequent high-growth period of , 3 and also a time when the region s birth rate remains relatively low limiting the number of local youth entering the workforce. This report takes an in-depth look at the trends in labor force participation in Silicon Valley, identifies likely trends in the retirement of older workers to 2025, and discusses high-level implications for workforce policy. Summary of Findings Silicon Valley will experience a retirement surge in the coming years, with an estimated 300,000+ new retirees over the decade between 2015 and This surge estimate is based on current labor force participation rates by age category, and the expected changes in Silicon Valley s population share of older (ages 55+) residents. If the trend toward older workers staying in the labor force longer continues, this estimate may be lowered slightly (-6%) but remains significant nonetheless. The surge is expected to taper off as the youngest baby-boomers reach age 65 in The forthcoming retirement surge is expected to change the composition of job openings within the region with respect to skill/wage level and job types. As opposed to newly created jobs, these openings due to retirees vacating their positions will serve as a large source of middle-skill/middle-wage jobs across a wide array of occupational categories that are vital to the region s economy but not necessarily in tech one of our region s fastest growing industries for newly created jobs. The principal data findings are: Labor force participation rates for workers ages 55+ have increased over the past decade, with older workers remaining in the workforce longer. In 2007, 38.5% of residents ages 55+ and older were in the workforce; by 2016, the share had risen to 42.8%. Because labor force participation rates for workers age 55+ decline sharply as the workers age, and because the rates are much lower for older workers than the very high participation rates of workers in the age range, there will inevitably be a surge in Silicon Valley retirements in the coming years. In 2016, 85.4% of residents 1. For the purposes of this report, Silicon Valley is defined as the three-county area including Santa Clara, San Mateo, and San Francisco Counties. 2. Joint Venture Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley Institute for Regional Studies, 2017 Silicon Valley Index ( 3. Joint Venture Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley Institute for Regional Studies, Silicon Valley Employment Trends Through 2016 (www. SiliconValleyIndicators.org). Preparing for a Silicon Valley Retirement Surge 3

8 ages were in the workforce but merely 42.8% of residents ages 55+ worked still a large discrepancy despite the steady increase in participation by older workers. Based on current labor force participation rates, an estimated 300,000+ current Silicon Valley workers will retire between 2015 and If participation rates for workers ages 55+ increase at the same rate as they have since 2007, the number of retirees will be 18,000 (6%) fewer. The retirement wave will continue for a few years after 2025 as the youngest baby boomers will turn 65 in The principal implications for workforce trends and policy are: Many of the retiring workers have substantial education and experience. While tech gets top attention in discussing the Silicon Valley economy, many retirees come from vital non-tech occupations, including teachers, doctors, nurses, public safety workers, construction occupations and local government. 4 Replacing these workers will pose challenges in both the private and public sectors. Most of the forthcoming job openings approximately 75% in the period to 2025 will come from replacing retiring workers or workers who change occupations. Workforce policies need to focus on replacement needs in addition to new jobs and occupations. These replacement openings provide the broadest and deepest source of jobs for new and existing workers looking to move up as these replacement openings will provide the largest source of middle wage opportunities in the coming years. These data do not present a complete picture of workforce trends in Silicon Valley as many workers commute into the region 5 and thus are not included in these datasets. And, with expanded ACE train service from San Joaquin County, new BART stations opening in the East Bay, and the potential high-speed rail service into San Jose, there will be more workers coming into Silicon Valley in the near future. Yet, the aging trends documented in this report affect all of the commute shed regions as well. Trends in Labor Force Participation Workers ages 55+ in Silicon Valley, California, and throughout the United States are staying in the workforce longer. The increase in labor force participation for older workers between 2007 and 2016 was largest in Silicon Valley, where the participation rate rose from 38.5% to 42.8%. Silicon Valley also had the highest participation rate for older workers. 4. California Employment Development Department, Employment Projections for the San Francisco and San Jose metro areas (www. labormarketinfo.edd.ca.gov/data/employment-projections.html). 5. Joint Venture Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley Institute for Regional Studies, 2017 Silicon Valley Index ( 4 Preparing for a Silicon Valley Retirement Surge

9 Figure 1: Labor Force Participation Rate for Silicon Valley Residents Ages 55 or Older, 2007 & 2016 Share of the Population in the Workforce 44% 43% 42% 41% 40% 39% 38% 37% 36% 35% 34% 2007 Silicon Valley % 42.8% 37.3% 39.4% 37.0% 38.9% California United States Data Source: United States Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates However, the participation rate for workers ages 55+ is sharply lower than the participation rate for workers aged In Silicon Valley the participation rate for workers ages 55+ was 42.8% in 2016 half of the 85.4% participation rate for younger workers in the age range. The national and state trends are similar and Silicon Valley has higher participation rates in both age groups. Figure 2: Labor Force Participation Rates for Residents Ages and 55+ in Silicon Valley, California, and the United States, % 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% % 42.8% 80.8% 39.4% 81.6% 38.9% Silicon Valley California United States Data Source: United States Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates Participation rates increased for all older worker age groups between 2007 and But in both of those years, rates for workers ages 65+ declined sharply from participa- Preparing for a Silicon Valley Retirement Surge 5

10 tion in the age range. So, while labor force participation rates for older residents has increased over time, those residents do eventually retire. Figure 3: Labor Force Participation in Silicon Valley for Older Worker Age Groups, 2007 & % 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% % 24.0% 4.5% 70.2% 29.3% 6.0% Data Source: United States Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates Likely Retirement Trends to 2025 If current participation rates continue, the majority of workers who were in the age range in 2015 will remain in the workforce in But, nearly 70,000 of those workers (16%) will retire over the course of that decade ( ). Figure 4: Expected Number of Silicon Valley Workers Who Were Years Old in 2015, 2015 & , , , , , , , ,000 50, , ,594 69, Decrease Data Source: United States Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates 6 Preparing for a Silicon Valley Retirement Surge

11 In comparison to the 16% of workers ages 45-54, a larger share of workers ages will retire by At current participation rates, nearly 170,000 of them (58%) will retire between 2015 and Figure 5: Expected Number of Silicon Valley Workers Who Were Years Old in 2015, 2015 & , , , , , ,000 50, , , , Decrease Data Source: United States Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates Nearly all workers who were in the age range in 2015 will leave the workforce by In this age group, more than 60,000 (79%) are expected to retire by Figure 6: Expected Number of Silicon Valley Workers Who Were Years Old in 2015, 2015 & ,000 80, ,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, ,323 15,950 60, Decrease Data Source: United States Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates The sum of all the retirements from each age sub-group provides an estimate of approximately 300,000 retiring workers by However, if participation rates for older workers increase by the same amount of they did between 2007 and 2016, there will Preparing for a Silicon Valley Retirement Surge 7

12 be 18,000 (6%) fewer workers retiring. Unless the increase in participation among older workers, particularly those ages 65+, is very large, it will not significantly reduce the retirement wave. Figure 7: Estimate of Silicon Valley Retirees by 2025, if Participation Rates Remain Constant and if Rates Increase 350, , , , , ,000 50, , ,981 If Participation Rates Remain Constant If Participation Rates Increase Data Source: United States Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates The decline in participation as older workers age is likely to be somewhat larger than the projections provided in this report, since some older workers in 2015 will leave the area or die by 2025 and are thus not counted. And while Silicon Valley does attract migrants from other areas and abroad, very few are ages 55+ so they are not much of an offset to the retirement projections. Additionally, this analysis of retirement trends is only a partial analysis of workforce trends and issues in Silicon Valley. The 2017 Silicon Valley Index 6 identifies more than 200,000 commuters into the Valley from Alameda County alone in And looking to the future, ongoing transportation investments like the expanded Altamont Corridor Express (ACE) service, the new BART stations opening in Fremont and south, and the possibility of high speed rail service from the San Joaquin Valley into San Jose all have the possibility of expanding where the Valley gets its workers. The commute shed regions do, however, face the same demographic trends as Silicon Valley with an aging population and workforce. Population Projections to 2030 Between 2007 and 2016 there was a larger share of working age population growth in the 55+ age group, but the gap between that growth and growth of the age group was not large. 6. Joint Venture Silicon Valley, Silicon Valley Institute for Regional Studies, 2017 Silicon Valley Index ( 8 Preparing for a Silicon Valley Retirement Surge

13 However, in the heart of the baby-boomer retirement (from 2015 until 2025), more than 80% of the working age population growth will be accounted for by residents ages 55 and older. And this same disproportionate share will continue between 2025 and Figure 8: Working Age Population Growth Estimates ( ) and Projections ( & ) in Silicon Valley, by Age Group 350, , , , , , , , ,420 54, ,254 39, , Data Source: California Department of Finance According to the California Department of Finance population projections, the number of residents under age 16 is expected to decrease until 2025 and again to Declining birth rates mean that the workforce pipeline will be not be filled with a surge in the number of younger residents entering the labor force. Figure 9: Silicon Valley Population Growth Projections for & , by Age Group 350, , , , , ,000 50, , , ,254 39, ,608-12,867-10, Data Source: California Department of Finance Preparing for a Silicon Valley Retirement Surge 9

14 Implications for the Workforce and the Economy The following is intended to stimulate discussion and not offered as definitive or detailed responses to the workforce trends presented in this report. Most job openings to 2025 will be to replace retiring workers or workers who change occupations. The Silicon Valley projections from the state Employment Development Department indicate that nearly two thirds of job openings between 2014 and 2024 were replacements. Since those projections were released, nearly 50% of the projected job growth has already occurred, so the share of job openings from replacement needs will be even higher than predicted in the remaining period to While job growth is expected to be concentrated in tech, health care and social assistance, and the leisure and hospitality sector, including restaurants, job openings are spread across the occupational spectrum with many job openings in sectors where job levels are expected to be flat or even declining. Replacement job openings are the opportunity side of the retirement wave in the sense that they provide a target for helping people move up while at the same time helping private- and public-sector employers fill critical positions. The challenge is that many retiring workers such as teachers, nurses, doctors, public safety employees, construction workers, and others have skills and experience that cannot be easily matched by workers just entering the workforce. In the past, the Silicon Valley workforce has been aided by migrants from abroad and from other parts of the country. High housing prices and a less welcoming immigration policy, at least currently, make this solution harder in the years to come. Population and job growth is slowing here and across the state and nation as boomers age, birth rates fall, and immigration has stopped increasing. While this may make it easier for Silicon Valley to address housing and transportation challenges, success here is not easily accomplished without skilled workers to fill the jobs left vacant by retiring baby-boomers. 10 Preparing for a Silicon Valley Retirement Surge

15 Preparing for a Silicon Valley Retirement Surge 11

16 This report was prepared by Stephen Levy, Senior Economist for the Silicon Valley Institute for Regional Studies and Director, Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy, in partnership with Rachel Massaro at the Silicon Valley Institute for Regional Studies. Jill Jennings created the report s layout and design; Duffy Jennings served as copy editor. Silicon Valley Institute for Regional Studies The Silicon Valley Institute for Regional Studies provides research and analysis on a host of issues facing Silicon Valley s economy and society. The Institute is housed within Joint Venture Silicon Valley. Joint Venture Silicon Valley Established in 1993, Joint Venture Silicon Valley brings together established and emerging leaders from business, government, academia, labor and the broader community to spotlight issues, launch projects, and work toward innovative solutions. For more information, visit SILICON VALLEY INSTITUTE for REGIONAL STUDIES 100 West San Fernando Street Suite 310 San Jose, California P: (408) F: (408) institute@jointventure.org

17 THE TOWN OF LOS GATOS INVITES YOU TO A RECEPTION TO HONOR THE SELECTION OF THE LOS GATOS MAYOR AND VICE MAYOR IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING A BRIEF COUNCIL MEETING TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 21, :00 P.M. TOWN COUNCIL CHAMBERS 110 E. MAIN STREET