NOVA and A Hot, Slowing and Changing Economy: Implications for Workforce Planning

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Shauna Fleming
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1 NOVA and A Hot, Slowing and Changing Economy: Implications for Workforce Planning Stephen Levy Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy NOVA Retreat Jan 25, 2017

2 A Strong Economy on Traditional Economic Indicators Above average job growth Below average unemployment and poverty rates and workers coming back into the workforce Above average median wages, minimum wage thresholds and household income But economic distress for many caused by very high housing costs in relation to wages and income

3 Dec Job Growth Rate 4.0% 3.5% 3.4% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 1.5% 2.0% 2.4% 1.9% 0.0% U.S. California Bay Area SF metro SJ metro

4 Unemployment and Poverty Rates 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 14.7% 15.3% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 4.5% 5.0% 2.7% 3.3% 8.2% 8.5% 0.0% UE Rate Dec 16 Poverty Rate 2015 U.S. California SM County SC County

5 120.0 Year over Year Job Growth is Slowing (Thousands) Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16

6 The Replacement Job Opening Surge: Reality and Opportunity Slowing job growth combined with growing baby boomer retirements is transforming the job opening mix This differs occupation by occupation but is particularly strong in office, sales and production jobs Much/most of our work is preparing workers to take or move up into these job openings, not new niche industries if we are thinking about numbers not press releases

7 Job Openings in San Jose Metro EDD CCSCE Thousands per Year New Jobs Replacement Needs

8 A Dual Workforce Mandate and Dual Labor Market Realities Learn about and meet the needs of employers Help individuals who are disadvantaged by education, disability, language or other reasons We have fewer at risk residents than other areas by a large margin but also more workers at risk of job churn, again by a large margin with job openings amidst layoffs

9 Strategies are Proposed to Meet the Dual Mandate Strategy 1: Improve career pathways from low and moderate wage work to middle wage jobs. Prepare residents for success. Strategy 2: Grow the economy in the Bay Area. Strategy 3:: Upgrade working conditions and the safety net, particularly for workers in existing low-wage and moderate-wage jobs.

10 Three Challenging Trends Roughly a third of jobs are in low wage occupations and the number in these occupations is projected to increase Median wages in low and middle wage occupations have grown slowly and below the rate of inflation And many workers will retire, which both amplifies the hiring challenge for employers AND creates targets of opportunity for workers

11 Job Trends in San Jose Metro Area High Wage Middle Wage Low Wage

12 Training is Only Part of Developing Career Pathways Creating career pathways has many dimensions. It can start BEFORE the first job and CONTINUE as workers face transitions in their work life. Experience and learning the what employers expect is necessary in addition to training. Linked Learning programs in high school and paid internships are ways young people can improve their chances for good jobs. Broadening apprenticeships to new industries would be helpful

13 Housing, Transportation, Language and Attitude are Workforce Issues We have talked about language and attitude before We know that housing costs are THE major cause of economic distress but housing costs push workers farther from jobs Commute time, costs and options are barriers for workers and employers Should we consider these as part of our mission? I invite Rosanne to talk about SM transportation funding measures

14 Many Workers Will Remain in Low Wage Jobs: Possible Responses The state and nation will need to discuss the role of support and safety net programs (food stamps, health care, child care) to reduce poverty for low wage workers. Will unions or some other collective voice for low wage workers be part of the solution? There is a philosophical question as to whether we feel it is wrong for people who work full time to live in poverty.

15 Federal, State and Local Roles Income support and safety net policies Medicaid/MediCal, unemployment insurance, CalWORKs, subsidized child care, earned-income tax credit, food stamps, housing, Social Security Investment education, workforce, transportation Immigration reform Minimum wage Housing Environmental review process - CEQA

16 And An Old but New Concern What to do about the growing number of people who work outside of the older traditional work arrangements

A Good Year for Silicon Valley Workers (If You Do Not Look at Housing Costs) Challenges Ahead

A Good Year for Silicon Valley Workers (If You Do Not Look at Housing Costs) Challenges Ahead Stephen Levy Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy NOVA Retreat January 23, 2019 Some Good