INTERNATIONAL AAONE. European Department. From Crisis to Convergence. Charting a Course for Portugal. dited by Dm/fry Gers/ienson,

Transcription

1 INTERNATIONAL AAONE European Department From Crisis to Convergence Charting a Course for Portugal dited by Dm/fry Gers/ienson, 'bert Joeger, and Sub/r Lall

2 Contents ACRONYMS FOREWORD ix x 1. PREFACE Current Account Balance and NIIP Swan Diagrams Restoring Internal Balance Portugal's Path of Successful Reforms 5 REFERENCES 5 2. RESTORING INTERNAL BALANCE: CREATING JOBS FOR LOWER-SKILLED WORKERS Labor Slack and Migration Labor Skills in a Production Function Managerial Skills: Cross-Country Evidence Labor Market in Portugal, Attachment to Labor Market in Portugal, 2008 vs Skills Indicators Slack Indicators Swan Diagram Swan Diagram Swan Diagram Domestic Demand, National Disposable Income, and Unemployment Rate in Portugal Okun Relationship in Portugal, Age Pyramids, Labor Absorption Scenarios, Real GDP on Portugal Labor Productivity in Portugal Skill Mix in Portugal Skill Premium in Portugal Projected Real GDP Growth in Portugal Projected Unemployment Rate in Portugal, Skill Mismatch in Portugal 19 v

3 2.19. Portugal: At Risk of Poverty Rate (After Social Transfer) by Employment Status Portugal: At risk of Poverty Rate (After Social Transfer) by Household OECD Countries: Trust between Social Partners and Labor Market Flexibility, Social Trust 24 TABLE 2.1. Labor Market Slack Rate, I. Data_ 26 REFERENCES MAINTAINING EXTERNAL BALANCE: STRUCTURAL REFORMS TO BOOST COMPETITIVENESS 31 S 3.1. EU Member States: Changes in Gross Exports and Current Account Balances External Positions EU Member States: Domestic Value-Added Exports and Structural Indicators Latest Structural Indicators Illustrative Example: Why Gross Exports Could Be Misleading DVA Exports and Structural Indicators Robustness Check: Subsample Periods _ Robustness Check: Other Factors Gross Exports and Structural Indicators 38 I. Data 41 REFERENCES DEALING WITH PUBLIC DEBT OVERHANG: FISCAL ADJUSTMENT AND CHALLENGES AHEAD 43 BOX 4.1. Determinants of Portuguese Interest Rate Fiscal Balance Overall Fiscal Balance General Government Revenue Public Wages and Pension Expenditure 53 vi

4 4.5. General Government Employees: Average Monthly earnings Projected Old Dependency Ratios Implicit Tax Rates Tax Subsidy of R&D Expenditures, Public Investment and Capital Stock Maintenance Spending Education Indicators Evolution of Student Population in Portugal, Number of Student General Government Spending by Economic and Functional Classification Primary Spending in Portugal and the Euro Area by Level of Government General Government Employment (ESA 2010) 53 REFERENCES DEALING WITH PRIVATE DEBT OVERHANG: CORPORATE DEBT RESTRUCTURING Corporate Debt: Data and Statistical Issues The Legal and Institutional Framework How Can Tax Policy Contribute to Corporate Deleveraging? Action Plan for Corporate Debt Restructuring Portugal: NFC Debt NCF Debt to GDP, 1014:Q Portugal: Nonperforming Loans to NFCs Portugal: Key Indicators of Corporate Indebtedness, :Ql 72 I. Data 80 REFERENCES GENERATING SUSTAINABLE GROWTH: INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE Portugal: Real GDP and Unemployment Rate Portugal: Productivity and Capital Stock Tradable and Nontradable Sectors 85 REFERENCES 86 väj

5 7. GENERATING SUSTAINABLE GROWTH: A FIRM-LEVEL PERSPECTIVE ON STRUCTURAL REFORMS The Export Surge: Who Did It? Reducing Port User Cost: An Implementation Game in Progress Fiscal Devalvation A Structural Reform Too Far? Nonfinancial Firms Extensive Margin of Exports, Size Distribution of Nonfinancial Firms, Performance Indicators for Manufacturing Firms, _ Structural Reform Actions by Phases Firm Survey Perceived Impact of Structural Reforms Firm Survey Perceived Urgency of More Reforms Overview of Structural Reforms 103 I. Survey Questions 105 REFERENCES 108 viii