Brief Contents. THE EXTENSIONS Introduction 1 Expectations 283. Policy 433

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1 Brief THE EXTENSIONS Introduction 1 Expectations 283 Chapter 1 A Tour of the World 3 Chapter 14 Financial and Chapter 2 A Tour of the Book 21 Expectations 285 Chapter 15 Expectations, Consumption, and Investment 311 The Short Run 45 Chapter 16 Expectations, Output, and Chapter 3 The Goods Market 47 Policy 331 Chapter 4 Financial Markets I 67 Chapter 5 Goods and Financial Markets; 04.7 Model 89 Chapter 6 Financial Markets II: The Extended Model 111 Markets 349 Chapter 18 The Goods Market in an Open Economy 369 The Medium Run Chapter 19 Output, the Interest Rate, and Chapter 7 The Labor Market Exchange Rate 391 Chapter 8 The Phillips Curve, the Natural Rate Exchange Rate Regimes of Unemployment, and Chapter 9 From the Short to the Medium Run: The Model Chapter 22 Policy 433 Restrained? 435 Fiscal Policy: The Long Run 197 Up 453 Chapter 10 The Facts of Growth Policy: Chapter 11 Saving, Capital p and Output Ep.logue: The Story Chapter 12 Technological Progress and Growth 241 of Macroeconomics 497 Chapter 13 Technological Progress: The Short, the Medium, and the Long Run 263 Blanchard, Olivier Macroeconomics digitalisiert durch: IDS Luzern

2 1 97 * Output and Capital 244 Dynamics of Capital and Chapter 10 The FactS Of Growth Output 246 The Effects of the Saving 10-1 Living 200 Rate 247 Growth in Countries since The Determinants of Technological Progress The Fertility of the Research The Large Increase in the Standard Process 249 The Appropriability of Living since 205 The of Research Results 250 Convergence of Output per Person 206 Management, Innovation, 10-3 A Time and and Imitation 252 Space 207 Technological Progress, across Two 207 and Growth 252 Looking across Revisited Primer 209 Capital Accumulation versus The Aggregate Production Function Technological Progress in 210 Returns to Scale and Returns to Countries since Capital Factors Output per and Accumulation versus Technological Capital per Worker The Sources Progress in China 257 of Growth Appendix: a of Chapter 11 Saving, Capital Accumulation, Technological Progress 261 and Output 217 between Output and Technological Progress: 218 Short, the Medium, and the Long Run 263 The Effects of Capital on Output The Capital Productivity, Output, and Accumulation 219 Output and Unemployment in the Investment 219 Investment Short Run 264 and Capital Accumulation 220 The of Alternative SavingRates 221 Unemployment 267 Dynamics of Capital and Output 221 The Saving and Output 223 The Saving Rate and Consumption 227 Unemployment 268 The Empirical 11-3 of Magnitudes 228 Evidence 269 The Effects of the Saving Rate on Technological Progress, Output 230 The and Inequality 271 Dynamic Effects of an Increase in the Saving Rate 231 The U.S. Saving Increase in Wage Inequality 272 Rate and the Golden 233 Causes of Increased Wage Inequality 274 Inequality and the versus Human Capital 234 Extending the Production Function 234 Human Capital, Physical Capital, and Output 235 Endogenous Growth 236 EXTENSIONS Appendix: The Production Function State Chapter 12 Technological Progress and Chapter 14 Financial Markets and Growth 241 Expectations Technological Progress and the Rate 14-1 Expected Present Discounted Growth 242 Values 286 Technological Progress and Computing Expected Present Discounted the Production Function 242 Values 286 A General 287 viii

3 Chapter Using Present Values: 288 Chapter 16 Expectations, Output, Constant Interest Rates Interest Rates and 288 Constant Interest Expectations and Decisions: Taking Rates and Forever 289 Stock 332 Zero Interest Rates 289 Nominal Expectations, Consumption, and versus Real Interest Rates and Present Investment Decisions 332 Values 289 Expectations and the 14-2 Yields 290 Relation 332 Bond Prices as Present Values 292 Monetary Policy, Expectations, and Arbitrage and Bond Prices 293 Output 335 From Bond Prices to Bond Yields 294 Monetary Policy Revisited 335 Reintroducing Risk Deficit Expectations, and 14-3 The Stock Market and in Stock Prices 298 Future 339 Back to the Current Stock Prices as Present Values 298 Period 339 The Stock Market and Economic Activity 301 A Monetary Expansion and the Stock Market 301 An 347 Increase in Spending and the stock Market 302 Chapter 17 Openness Goods and Financial 14-4 Risk, and Asset Markets 349 Prices Openness in Goods Markets 350 Stock Prices and Risk 304 Asset Exports and Imports 350 The Choice Prices, and between Goods and Foreign Bubbles 304 Goods 352 Nominal Exchange the Expected Present From Nominal to Real,.,., Exchange Rates 354 From Bilateral to Discounted Using Real or Nommal Exchange Rates 357 Interest Rates 310 Openness Financial Markets 358,.. The Balance of Payments 359 The Expectations, Consumption, and Investment 311 Assets 361 Interest Rates and 15-1 Consumption 312 Exchange Rates 363 The Very Foresighted Consumer 312 Conclusions and a Look Ahead 365 An 313 a More Description 314 chapter 18 The Goods Market in an Open Putting Things Together: Current 369 Income, Expectations, and Consumption 317 The IS Relation in the Open 15-2 Investment 318 Economy 370 Investment and Expectations of Goods 370 Profit 318 Depreciation 319 * The of C,/, and G 370. The Present Expected The Determinants of Imports 371 Profits 319 The Investment The Determinants of Exports 371 Decision 320 the Case 320 Current versus logether 371 Expected Profit Output Trade 324 Balance 373 The of Consumption and Increases in or Investment 326 Foreign 374 Appendix: Derivation of the Expected Increases in Domestic Demand 374 Present Value of Profits under Increases in Foreign Demand 376 Expectations 330 Fiscal Policy Revisited 377 ix

4 18-4 Depreciation, the Trade Balance, and 20-4 Choosing between Exchange Rate Output Regimes 422 Depreciation and the Trade Balance: Common Currency Areas 423 The Marshall-Lerner Condition 380 Hard Pegs, Currency Boards, and The Effects of a Real Depreciation 380 Dollarization 425 Exchange Rate and Fiscal Appendix Deriving the IS relation under Policies 381 Fixed Exchange Rates 431 Looking Dynamics: J-Curve 384 Appendix 2: The Exchange Rate and Saving, Investment, and the Current Domestic and Foreign Real Interest Account Balance 386 Rates 431 Appendix: of the Condition 390 to 433 Chapter 19 Output, the Interest Rate, and the 21 Should Policy Makers Be Exchange Rate 391 Restrained? 435 Chapter Goods 21-1 Uncertainty and Policy 436 Market 392 How Do in Financial Actually 436 Should Uncertainty Lead Policy Makers to Markets 393 Do Less? 438 Uncertainty and Domestic Bonds versus Foreign Restraints on Policy Makers 438 Bonds 393 Putting Goods and Financial Markets Expectations and Policy Hostage Takings and Negotiations 440 Together 397 Inflation and Unemployment 19-4 The Effects of Policy in an Open Revisited 440 Establishing Economy 399 Credibility 441 Time Consistency The Effects of Monetary Policy in an and Restraints on Policy Makers 443 Open Economy 399 The of 21-3 Politics and Policy 443 Fiscal Policy in an Open Economy 399 between Policy Makers and 19-5 Fixed Exchange Rates 403 Voters 443 Games between Policy Pegs, Crawling Pegs, Bands, the EMS, Euro 403 Monetary Restraints 448 Policy when the Exchange Rate Chapter 22 Fiscal Policy: A Summing Up 453 Fixed 404 Fiscal Policy when the Exchange Rate Fixed Appendix: Fixed Exchange Rates, Interest Government Budget Constraint: Rates, and Capital 409 Debt, Spending, and Taxes Exchange Rate Regimes 20-1 The Medium Run 412 Debt 455 Current versus Future The Relation under Fixed Exchange Taxes 457 The Evolution of the Rates 413 Equilibrium in the Short Debt-to-GDP Ratio 459 and the Medium Run The Case 22-3 Ricardian Equivalence, Cyclical for and against a Devaluation Adjusted Deficits, and War 20-2 Exchange Rate Crises under Fixed Finance 462 Exchange Rates 416 Ricardian Equivalence 462 Deficits, 20-3 Exchange Rate Movements under Output and the Flexible Exchange Rates 419 Adjusted Deficit 463 Exchange Rates and the Current Deficits 464 Account 420 Exchange Rates The Dangers of High Debt 466 and Current and Future Interest High Debt, Default Risk, and Vicious Rates 421 Exchange Rate 466 Debt Default Finance 468

5 Chapter Monetary Policy: A Summing 24-3 The Rational Expectations Up 477 Critique What We Have Learned 478 The Three Implications of Rational 23-2 Expectations 502 Integration of Rational Expectations 503 Targeting in Money Targeting 479 Inflation Targeting 481 The Interest Rate the 2009 Crisis New Economics and Real 23-3 The Optimal Inflation Rate 483 Business Theory 505 Economics 505 New The 483 The Growth Theory 506 Benefits of Inflation 486 The Integration 507 Optimal Inflation Rate: The State of the Debate First Lessons for Macroeconomics after the 508 Monetary Policy 488 Appendix 1 An to National 23-5 Monetary Policy and Financial Income and ProdUCt Stability 490 AccountS Provision and Lender of Appendix 2 A Math Refresher A-7 Last Resort Appendix 3 Epilogue: The Story of Macroeconomics Keynes and the Great Depression Synthesis 498 Progress on All Fronts 499 Keynesians versus 500 Glossary CreditS An Introduction to Econometrics xi