Elgin Settlement Economic Overview

Transcription

1 Strategic planning and research Economic information December 2007 Elgin Settlement Economic Overview Summary Between 2001 and 2006, the population of Elgin declined by 2.6%, which was in contrast with the Highlands and Islands as a whole, where the population increased by 1.8%. In 2006, Elgin had a proportionately younger population compared with that of the Highlands and Islands as a whole. 33.3% of the population in Elgin was aged between 20 and 44 compared with 29.9% in the whole of the Highlands and Islands. Elgin had a proportion lower of business units employing 1-4 employees than the Highlands and Islands region, but a greater proportion of units employing staff in the 5-10, and 25 or more employees categories. In October 2007, the unemployment rate in Elgin was 1.6%. This was the same as the rate for the Highlands and Islands. Elgin town centre Elgin settlement profile - Strategic planning and research Economic information December 2007

2 Introduction This profile provides a brief overview of key economic information for the settlement of Elgin. It provides information on recent trends in population, employment and unemployment in the area. For the purposes of this profile, the definition of Elgin settlement has been based on the aggregation of several Scottish data zones that cover the area. Data zones are the smallest geographic area at which information from the above datasets is available. A map illustrating the area covered by this definition is provided in Figure 1 below. The geographic area selected may appear relatively broad; however, it has been designed to take account of both recent and planned developments in the surrounding area. Further, as the definition is dictated by the boundaries of data zones, in some cases larger data zones situated on the outskirts of an area have been selected in order to ensure that specific locations (e.g. housing, an industrial estate or business park) are included in the analysis. Comparative figures provided throughout the profile for the Highlands and Islands are based on data zones, with the exception of unemployment rates, where a travel-to-work area definition has been used. Figure 1: Map of Elgin settlement Elgin settlement profile - Strategic planning and research Economic information December 2007 Page 2 of 6

3 Population Table 1 shows the change in the population of Elgin between 2001 and 2006 and compares this with the change experienced at the Highlands and Islands and Scottish levels over the same period. Table 1: Population change Area Change % Change Elgin 23,434 22, Highlands and Islands 433, ,096 7, Scotland 5,064,200 5,116,900 52, Source: GROS Small Area Population Estimates 2001, 2006 In 2006, the population of Elgin was estimated to be approximately 22,800. Between 2001 and 2006, the population of Elgin declined by 2.6%, which was in contrast to trends at the Highlands and Islands and Scottish levels, where the population increased by 1.8% and 1% respectively. Annual population estimates suggest that the population of Elgin has fluctuated over this period, with the decreases considerably greater than any increases, resulting in an overall net loss between 2001 and The distribution of Elgin s population by age in 2006 is shown in Figure 2, along with comparative data for the Highlands and Islands and Scotland as a whole. Figure 2: Distribution of population by age 2006 Source: GROS Small Area Population Estimates 2006 Elgin has a proportionately younger population compared with that of the Highlands and Islands as a whole (particularly in the 20 to 44 age category), and as illustrated in Figure 2, its distribution is similar to that at the Scottish level. In 2006, 33.3% of the population in Elgin was aged between 20 and 44 compared with 29.9% across the Highlands and Islands. Elgin had a lower share of its population aged 45 to 64 (25.9%) compared with the average for the Highlands and Islands (28.9%). Elgin settlement profile - Strategic planning and research Economic information December 2007 Page 3 of 6

4 The population in each age band for Elgin in 2001 and 2006 is shown in Table 2; it also provides information on the change in population for each age band over the period for Elgin, the Highlands and Islands and Scotland. Table 2: Change in population age structure Highlands and Elgin Age Islands Scotland Group Change % Change % Change % Change ,477 1, ,243 4, ,406 7, ,565 5, ,308 3, Total 23,434 22, Source: GROS Small Area Population Estimates 2001, 2006 The most significant change between 2001 and 2006 was that the number of people aged four or under in Elgin fell by over 200, a decline of 15%. The decreases experienced at the Highlands and Islands and Scottish levels in this age band were lower, at 6.9% and 2.8% respectively. There was also a substantial fall in the number of people aged in Elgin between 2001 and 2006 (over 800 persons) however this represented only a 2.6 drop. These changes are likely to reflect movements in military personnel and support staff (and their families) to and from the two RAF bases located in the surrounding area. In contrast, significant increases where recorded in the number of people aged 45 to 64 and 65 to 84 over the period. It is evident from the above that the overall decline in the population of Elgin over the period was entirely attributable to a fall in the number of people in the younger age groups (i.e. aged 44 or under). The decrease in the number of people aged 44 or under in Elgin between 2001 and 2006 (down 8.1%) was greater than the decreases experienced for this age group at the Highlands and Islands (down 4.1%) and Scottish (down 2.6%) levels. However, over the same period, the number of people aged 45 or over increased at a slower rate in Elgin (up 5.8%) compared with the averages for the Highlands and Islands (up 9.1%) and Scotland as a whole (up 6.5%). Employment According to the ABI, there were approximately 14,600 employees in employment in Elgin in Information on the distribution of employees in employment in Elgin by broad sector in 2005, as well as comparative data for the Highlands and Islands and Scotland as a whole, is shown in Table 3. Table 3: Distribution of employees in employment by broad sector 2005 Highlands and Elgin Sector Islands Scotland (%) (%) (%) Primary Manufacturing Construction Services Total Source: Annual Business Inquiry (NOMIS) Notes: The ABI provides data on employees in employment only; it therefore does not include the self-employed. Data from the ABI are based on a sample survey and may therefore be subject to inaccuracies at small area level. Columns may not sum to one hundred due to rounding. In 2005, the distribution of employees in employment by broad sector in Elgin was generally similar to that of both the Highlands and Islands and Scotland as a whole. Elgin settlement profile - Strategic planning and research Economic information December 2007 Page 4 of 6

5 Looking specifically at the service sector in more detail indicates that 38% of all employees in Elgin worked in the public administration, education and health sector. This compares with 34% for the Highlands and Islands and 30% for Scotland as a whole. It also had a higher share of employees in the distribution, hotels and restaurants sector (29%) compared with the averages for the Highlands and Islands (26%) and Scotland as a whole (22%). Data units The ABI also provides information on the number of data units located in an area. Although data units do not readily correspond to the commonly used terms firms, companies or businesses by which employers are sometimes identified, they do help to provide a broad indication of the number of workplaces (excluding the self-employed) operating in an area that employ staff. The latest ABI indicates that there were approximately 900 units employing staff in Elgin in Figure 3 shows data units broken down by business size for Elgin, the Highlands and Islands and Scotland in Figure 3: Distribution of business units by company sizeband 2005 Source: ABI 2005 In 2005, 52% of all units in Elgin employed between one and four employees; a further 20% of units employed between five and ten employees, whilst 16% employed between 11 and 24 employees. Compared with the Highlands and Islands and Scotland as a whole, Elgin had a considerably lower proportion of total units employing 1-4 employees, but a greater proportion of units employing staff in the 5-10, and 25 or more employees categories. Unemployment In October 2007, there were 231 JSA claimants in Elgin. At this time, the unemployment rate in Elgin was 1.6%. This was the same as the rate for the Highlands and Islands as a whole, and below the rate for Scotland (2.1%). Figure 4 illustrates trends in the unemployment rates for Elgin, the Highlands and Islands and Scotland over the period October 2005 to October Elgin settlement profile - Strategic planning and research Economic information December 2007 Page 5 of 6

6 Figure 4: Unemployment rates October 2005-October 2007 Source: ONS JSA Claimant Count Notes: Official unemployment rates are not available for areas aggregated from data zones. Proportions for Elgin are therefore estimates and are calculated using the mid-2001 resident working age population (males aged and females aged 16-59). Proportions for the Highlands and Islands are based on official unemployment rates for TTWAs and are calculated using the mid-2001 resident working age population. For Scotland, proportions for dates from 2006 onwards are calculated using the 2005 resident working age population. Figure 4 shows that between October 2005 and October 2007, the unemployment rate in Elgin was generally below that of the Highlands and Islands as a whole and considerably lower than the unemployment rate for Scotland. Overall, the unemployment rate in Elgin has dropped slightly in the two year period, falling from 1.7% in October 2005 to 1.6% in October A summary of the changes in long-term unemployment over the period October 2005 to October 2007 is presented in Table 4. Table 4: Long-term unemployment October 2005-October 2007 Highlands and Elgin Scotland Islands Date No Unemployed % of Total % of Total % of Total Long Term Unemployed Unemployed Unemployed October October October Source: ONS JSA Claimant Count Notes: Data relating to the duration of the unemployed are only available rounded to the nearest five. Further, at the local level, small changes in the number of long-term unemployed can have a significant impact on percentage change trends. Figures at the small area level should therefore be treated with a degree of caution In October 2007, there were approximately 55 claimants unemployed long term (that is, unemployed for six months or more) in Elgin, accounting for 23.8% of all unemployed in the area at that time. This was considerably lower than the proportion of long-term unemployed in both the Highlands and Islands (29.4%) and Scotland as a whole (30.3%). There has been a slight rise in the proportion of long-term unemployment in Elgin over the period between October 2005 and October The actual number of people in this cohort has risen slightly over the period, but based on small absolute numbers. This contrasts to the trends at the Highlands and Islands and Scottish levels, where the proportion of long-term unemployed decreased slightly over the same period. Scherie Nicol Economist scherie.nicol@hient.co.uk Tel: (01463) Further economic information and other settlement profiles can be accessed on the HIE Website: Elgin settlement profile - Strategic planning and research Economic information December 2007 Page 6 of 6