The Fife Labour Market Annual Report 2013

Transcription

1 The Fife Labour Market Annual Report 2013

2 Contents Executive Summary & Introduction Page 3 Part One: Labour Supply Page Population Page Employment Page Claimant Count Page Claimant Count by Area Committee Page Duration of JSA Claims Page Age of JSA Claimants Page More Choices, More Chances Page Total Benefit Claimants Page Employment Support Allowance (ESA) Page Qualifications Page Earnings Page 16 Part Two: Labour Demand Page Total Employment Page Employment by Status Page Employment by Gender Page Public/Private Sector Employment Page 20 Part Three: Future Outlook Page 21 Glossary of Terms Page 23 Contacts & Further Links Page 23 2

3 Executive Summary 2013 marked the first year since 2007 that Scotland experienced economic growth across all four quarters; the economy grew 1.6% across the year. The Fife economy also showed a number of positive signs with respect to the labour market. Fife s population increased to 366,910 in 2013, maintaining the regions position as Scotland s third largest local authority area. Fife s working age population remained below the Scottish average; meaning that Fife has a larger proportion of people aged 65 plus. An ageing population may be costly to the region in terms of health care provision that this cohort typically demands. Fife saw a reduction in the number of people employed in 2013 with the employment rate falling to 69.3%. Fife s employment rate not only remains below Scotland and the UK but the gap has widened. There was a 5.6% reduction in the number of Jobseekers Allowance Claimants, taking Fife s claimant rate to 4.3%; the lowest rate since Twenty of Fife s twenty-three Multi-Member Wards reported a decrease in Jobseekers Allowance Claimant rates. Glenrothes North, Leslie and Markinch ward recorded the highest decrease at 0.7%. Although Fife s long term Jobseekers Allowance Claimant rate remains above the Scottish and UK averages, the gap between Fife, Scotland and the UK is closing. The number of people aged claiming Jobseekers Allowance decreased again in 2013; the second consecutive year Fife has seen a reduction in claimants of this age. This comes after almost 5 years of increasing claimant numbers between 2007 and The Fife Economic Strategy identifies that a highly skilled and educated workforce is essential to future economic growth, business competitiveness and innovation. The evidence within this report shows that a slightly higher percentage of Fife s workforce is educated to degree level in comparison with Scotland and the UK. Fife s residents saw a 0.5% increase in weekly wages between 2012 and However, the pay gap between Fife and Scotland and the UK has widened. On average, Fife s residents in full-time employment earned a gross weekly wage of 599 compared to 600 and 620 per week across Scotland and the UK respectively. The Scottish and Fife economies continue to strengthen with increases in employment and a reduction in benefit claimants beginning to be seen throughout 2014/15. The outlook for the labour market continues to be positive as new opportunities are created and real wages strengthen. The Scottish and Fife economies are forecast to be in their strongest position in recent years throughout 2014/15 and beyond. 3

4 Introduction This report examines the labour market conditions in Fife during It provides data on the demand and supply side of the labour market, a breakdown of the population demographics within Fife and an examination of the area s business structure. The data used in this report are annual rates for 2013, unless otherwise noted. Scottish and UK figures are given for comparison. A glossary of terms is included on page 22 of the publication marked the first year since 2007 that Scotland experienced economic growth across all four quarters. The Scottish economy grew by 1.6% during However, Scotland entered recession over 5 years ago (22 quarters) and the effects of the crisis will continue to have an impact for some time yet. Scotland has also seen an improvement in the labour market across 2013; employment levels rose across the year whilst unemployment and economic inactivity declined. Figure1. Scottish Output, Source: Scottish Government,

5 Part One: Labour Supply Labour supply refers to the stock of people available to the labour market. The key labour market variables on the supply-side are: the employment rate; economic activity rate; claimant count (the number of people claiming Jobseekers Allowance); and claimants of other low income benefits (Incapacity Benefit & Severe Disablement Allowance, and Income Support). 1.1 Population The population of Fife has increased based on the mid-year estimate from which indicates it has risen slightly by 690 to 366,910 an increase of 0.2%. Fife accounts for 6.9% of Scotland s population. Fife remains the 3rd largest Local Authority by population in Scotland. Table1. Total Population. Fife, Scotland, Mid-Year Estimates 2013 Total Males Females Fife 366, , % 188, % Scotland 5,327,700 2,586, % 2,741, % Source: National Records of Scotland, 2014 Around 11.6% of Fife s population are aged The working age population (16-64) makes up 63.7% of the population which is below the Scottish average of 65.1%. Table 2. Population by Age. Fife, Scotland, Mid-Year Estimates 2013 Aged Aged Fife 42,528 (11.6%) 233,701 (63.7%) Scotland 624,867 (11.7%) 3,469,159 (65.1%) Source: National Records of Scotland, 2014 Fife s female life expectancy at birth (81.2 years) is greater than male life expectancy (77.0 years), and both are greater than the Scottish average. Projections are that by 2037 the population of Fife will be 397,989, based on the 2012 mid-year estimates. This represents an increase of 8.7% from The population of Scotland is expected to increase by 8.8% over the same time period. From there was a net inflow of 304 people into Fife, meaning that more people entered Fife (10,459) than left (10,155) across this period. 5

6 1.2 Employment In 2013 there were 161,600 people working in Fife. This is 5.9% fewer than in Tables 3, 4 and 5 below give the overall figures for Fife with the Scottish and UK percentages shown for comparison. Table 3. Total Employment, 2013 Fife Scotland UK ALL PERSONS Total % % % Economic activity rate - aged , Employment rate - aged , Aged who are employees 148, Aged who are self employed 12, Source: Annual Population Survey, NOMIS, 2014 Fife s male and female employment rates in 2013 were below that of Scotland and the UK, as seen in Tables 4 and 5 respectively. The tables also show that the level of self-employment for both males and females in Fife is below that of Scotland and the UK. Table 4. Male Employment, 2013 Fife Scotland UK MALES Total % % % Economic activity rate - aged , Employment rate - aged , Aged who are employees 74, Aged who are self employed 7, Source: Annual Population Survey, NOMIS, 2014 Table 5. Female Employment, 2013 Fife Scotland UK FEMALES Total % % % Economic activity rate - aged , Employment rate - aged , Aged who are employees 74, Aged who are self employed 4, Source: Annual Population Survey, NOMIS, 2014 The change in employment rates since 2007 can be seen in Figure 2. Having almost equalled the Scottish employment rate in 2011, the gap has widened as Fife dropped below Scottish and UK rates by 1.7% and 2.0% respectively in

7 Figure 2. Scottish, Fife & UK Employment Rate, Claimant Count Source: ONS, NOMIS, Annual Population Survey Fife had the 10th highest rate of Jobseekers Allowance Claimants (JSA) of the 32 Scottish local authorities in 2013, with an annual average of 4.3%. The highest rate at 6.1% was North Ayrshire with the lowest being Aberdeenshire at 1.0%. Fife has consistently reported JSA rates above the Scottish and UK levels, as can be seen in Table 6. Table 6: Annual Average JSA Claimant Rates. Fife, Scotland & UK, Absolute change Fife Scotland UK Source: ONS, DWP Claimant Count, NOMIS, 2014 After four years of increasing JSA claimants since 2007, Fife has now seen a decrease from The 2013 rate has equalled the 2009 rate at 4.3% but has yet to return to the 2007 rate of 2.8%. Figure 3 shows that the number of JSA claimants in Fife decreased by 5.6% (595 people) between 2012 and This is the largest decrease since 2006 and 2007 (16.4% or 1,277 people). 7

8 Figure 3: Annual Percentage Change in Fife JSA Claimants from 2000 Source: ONS, DWP Claimant Count, Nomis, 2014 The distribution of JSA claimants is not at a consistent rate throughout Fife. Map 1 below gives an indication of the concentration levels in each of Fife s 23 multi-member wards. The highest annual average rate for 2013 was the Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages Ward at 8.1%, almost double the Fife average, the lowest rate was the St Andrews Ward at 0.9%. Map 1: Claimant Count by Multi-Member Ward, 2013 Source: ONS, DWP Claimant Count, Nomis, 2014 Only one multi-member ward reported a rise in JSA rates over the year (Kirkcaldy East) with 20 reporting a decrease and two reporting no annual change as shown in Map 2 below. These rate decreases ranged between 0.1% and 0.7% with the highest decrease in the Glenrothes North, Leslie and Markinch ward. 8

9 Map 2: Rate of Claimant Count Change, by Multi-Member Ward, Claimant Count by Area Committee Source: ONS, DWP Claimant Count, Nomis, 2014 Fife Council has seven Area Committees. Figure 4 shows that every Area Committee geography experienced a decrease in JSA claimant numbers from 2012 to However, the number of JSA claimants is still largely above the 2007 count. Fife s annual average claimant count reduced by 5.6% from Three of the Area Committees reported a higher than average reduction; North East Fife (8.3%); South West Fife (11.5%); and Glenrothes (12.8%). The remaining Area Committees recorded annual reductions but were lower than the Fife average reduction. The lowest reduction was in the Kirkcaldy area with 0.3% fewer JSA claimants in 2013 as in Figure 4: Annual Average Claimant Count in Fife Area Committees, Source: ONS, DWP Claimant Count, Nomis,

10 Figure 5a: Working Age Population as a % of Fife Total in Fife Area Committees Figure 5b: Average Monthly Claimant Count in Fife Area Committees, 2013 Source: Population projections, KnowFife Dataset, 2014 Source: ONS, DWP Claimant Count, Nomis, 2014 Whilst North East Fife accounts for 20% (one fifth) of Fife s working age population, the area only accounted for 9% of Fife s average JSA claimants throughout Kirkcaldy accounts for 22% of Fife s JSA claimants on average despite being home to only 16% of Fife s working age population. 1.5 Duration of JSA Claims Table 7: Duration of JSA Claims, 2013 Short Term % <6 mths Medium Term % >6 mths < 12 mths Long Term % >12 mths + Fife Scotland UK Source: ONS, DWP Claimant Count, Nomis, 2014 Fife s rate of long-term claimants (more than 12 months) remains above the Scottish and UK averages. The gap between Fife, Scotland and the UK s claimant count rate, claiming over six months has narrowed slightly between 2012 and 2013 with Fife s rate 0.2% above Scotland and 0.3% above the UK as opposed to 0.3% and 0.4% in 2012 respectively. The gap between Fife and Scotland s claimant count rate, for those claiming over twelve months has reduced between 2012 and This was due to Fife s rate remaining steady whilst Scotland s rate increased by 0.1%. 10

11 Figure 5: Rate of Fife Claimants, Claiming over 6 months, Source: ONS, DWP Claimant Count, Nomis, 2014 Figure 6: Rate of Fife Claimants, Claiming over 12 months, Source: ONS, DWP Claimant Count, Nomis, Age of JSA Claimants Fife has seen a 70.6% (1,386) increase in the total number of year olds claiming JSA between 2007 and Between 2011 and 2013 the total number of 16-24s claiming JSA in Fife decreased by 14.0% (470) whilst the rate decreased by 1.1%. Scotland also saw a 19.0% decrease in the number of year old claimants between 2011 and 2013, whilst the UK saw a 17.2% fall. 11

12 Figure 7: Year Olds Claiming JSA, Source: ONS, DWP Claimant Count, Nomis, More Choices, More Chances (MCMC) Fife has historically had a higher rate of its year old population not in education, employment or training (NEET) than the Scottish average. Having increased to 10.6% in 2012, Fife s NEET rate decreased 1.0% to 9.6% in This is the lowest rate of known NEET since 2007 s 9.3%. Figure 8: Rate of Known NEET, Source: School Leavers Destinations Publication, Department for Work and Pensions, Total Benefit Claimants In 2013 the annual average number of total DWP Benefit Claimants in Fife was 37,300. This equates to 15.9% of the working age population, a 0.7 percentage point reduction from Fife, Scotland and the UK all reported reductions in total benefit claimants from As shown in Table 8 below, the number of BWP Benefit Claimants was 2.6% higher in 2013 than in

13 Table 8: Total Number of DWP Claimants, Fife Scotland UK , ,973 5,474, , ,580 5,729, , ,070 5,748, , ,985 5,757, , ,868 5,830, , ,828 5,220, , ,650 5,190,133 Absolute change since , ,997 % change since % 1.8% 5.5% Source: ONS, DWP Benefits, Nomis, 2014 The level of claimants varies throughout Fife. Map 3 below shows that Central Fife, in particular Buckhaven, Methil and Wemyss Villages Multi-Member Ward and The Lochs Multi-Member Ward, has the highest numbers of DWP benefit claimants. Map 3: Total Department for Work and Pensions Benefits Rate, by Multi-Member Ward, 2013 Source: ONS, DWP Benefits, Nomis, 2014 Map 4 below confirms that each multi-member ward recorded either no change or a reduction in benefit claimants between 2012 and However, Kirkcaldy East was the only ward to record an increase in claimants of 0.4%. 13

14 Map 4: Rate of Total Benefit Claimants, Change by Multi-Member Ward, Source: ONS, DWP Benefits, Nomis, Employment Support Allowance (ESA) Employment Support Allowance (ESA) was introduced in 2009 as a replacement for Incapacity Benefit (IB). The total number of ESA claimants has yet to reach its expected final level, as claimants are still transferring from IB to ESA. It is expected that ESA numbers will continue to rise, purely due to changes in welfare conditionality over the next year at least. The total number of ESA claimants in Fife in 2013 was 12,515. All new ESA claimants must undergo a Work Capability Assessment to determine their level of work readiness. ESA customers are split into three groups: Those undergoing assessment (Assessment Group); those classified as fit to work (Work Related Activity Group) and those deemed not fit for work (Support Group). The number in each of the phases is shown in Table 9 below. Table 9: Employment Support Allowance in TOTAL Assessment phase % Work related % % Support Group activity group ,515 2, , , ,950 3, , , ,710 2, , ,363 2, Source: Department for Work & Pensions 14

15 Figure 9: All ESA Claimants by UK Parliamentary Constituency, % of Fife total, 2013 Source: ONS, DWP benefits, Qualifications A highly skilled and educated workforce is essential for future economic growth, business competitiveness and innovation. Figure 10 indicates that Fife has a higher percentage of its economically active population who are educated to NVQ4 or above (Degree level) (44.0%) compared to Scotland (43.9%) and the UK (39.4%). Economically active refers to someone who is either in employment or actively seeking employment. The percentage of Fife s economically active population with no qualifications (2.9%) is significantly lower than the rest of Scotland (6.6%) or the UK (6.1%). Figure 10: Average Level of Qualification of Economically Active Population, 2013 Source: ONS. Annual Population Survey 15

16 1.11 Earnings Table 12 below shows that the average earnings in Fife in 2013 were lower than those for both Scotland and the UK. Table 12: Earnings (Resident-Based) Gross Pay per week 2013 Total Full Time ( per week) Male Full Time ( per week) Female Full Time ( per week) Fife Scotland UK Source: Annual Survey Hours & Earnings. Resident analysis Between 2012 and 2013 the gross weekly wage in Fife increased by 0.5%. Since 2007 Fife has seen an increase in its weekly wage of 12.2%. As Figure 11 below indicates the gap between Fife and the Scottish and UK averages has increased since Figure 11: Weekly Wages, Fife, Scotland & UK, Source: Annual Survey Hours & Earnings. Resident analysis. 16

17 Part Two: Labour Demand 2.1 Total Employment In 2013, 161,600 people (69.3% of the working age population) were in employment in Fife. The number of employed people decreased by 1,100 (0.7%) since Figure 12 below shows the changes in the employment rate from 2007 for Fife, Scotland and the UK. In 2013 Fife s rate was below that of Scotland and the UK. Figure 12 illustrates the change in employment rate from 2007 for Fife, Scotland and the UK. A return to pre-recession employment levels has yet to be seen. Figure 12: Employment rate. Fife, Scotland & UK, Source: ONS, Nomis, Annual Population Survey Figure 13 gives an indication as to the change in employment numbers within the individual sectors between 2007 and The biggest percentage increase was in the Agriculture and fishing industry (22.2%); however, this is one of the smallest industries in Fife in terms of number of people employed. In numerical terms, Distribution, hotels and restaurants showed the largest increase in employment increasing by 1,900 people since The biggest fall in employment numbers was in the Manufacturing sector which reported a 33.9% fall since 2007 (8,500 people). 17

18 Figure 13: Changes in Employment by Industry, Source: Annual Population Survey, Nomis 2.2 Employment by Status The total number of people working full-time in Fife shows an increase from 2012 to 2013, with a rise of 0.2%. The full-time employment rate has risen slightly above to the pre-recession levels experienced in 2006 by 0.5 percentage points. At the same time, the number of people working parttime has decreased by 1.8% (700 people) between 2011 and A decline in the number of people working full-time and part-time between 2007 and 2013 has been recorded with a drop of 6,300 and 3,700 respectively. Figures 14 and 15 below show the changes in the number of both full-time and part-time workers from Figure 14: Change in Full-time Employment, Source: Annual Population Survey, Nomis 18

19 Figure 15: Change in Part-time Employment, Source: Annual Population Survey, Nomis 2.3 Employment by Gender Figures 16 and 17 indicate the percentage of male and female employment in each industrial sector. The difference between the genders is clearly shown when comparing the two charts. Male employment is widely distributed across all sectors. Fife has a higher percentage of males in Manufacturing, Construction and the Public Sector than Scotland but is lower in Banking and Finance roles and Hotels and Restaurant roles than Scotland. Female employment, as shown in Figure 16, was concentrated mainly within the public sector, as is female employment across Scotland. Fife has a higher percentage of females employed in the service industries than Scotland within hotels and restaurant roles for example. Figure 16: Male Employment by Industry, Fife & Scotland 2013 Source: ONS, Annual Population Survey, Nomis

20 Comparing the two charts also shows that the percentage level of female employment within the Public Admin, Education and Health sector has remained at more than double that of male employment for both Fife and Scotland. More than three times as many males are employed within Fife s manufacturing sector than Females. However, the difference has dropped from 14,500 more males in 2009 to 9,000 in 2013, suggesting that the gender gap is closing within this sector. Figure 17: Female Employment by Industry, Fife & Scotland, 2013 Source: ONS, Annual Population Survey, Nomis 2.4 Public/Private Sector Employment The public sector workforce in Fife made up 28.6% of total employment. Fife continues to report a higher proportion of its workforce being employed in the public sector than Scotland (26.7%). However, the gap between Fife and Scotland has closed by 1.7 percentage points between 2012 and Figure 18: Public/Private Employment, Fife & Scotland, Source: ONS, Annual population survey, NOMIS 20

21 Part Three: Future Outlook The University of Glasgow s Training and Employment Research Unit (TERU) conducted workforce modelling research on behalf of the Fife Economy Partnership and Opportunities Fife Partnership. Its purpose was to analyse Fife s business base, the current and future labour supply and project where skills gaps might occur. This research was to enable a strategic long-term approach to employer led skills development in Fife. Some of the key findings included ensuring that college provision responds to future trends with regards to the ICT sector; and attracting more enrolments onto Fife College catering, food, leisure services and tourism courses. The findings have been used in the development of a Tourism Academy and will also feed into the Fife STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) Strategy and action plan. Fife Council also uses economic forecasts to understand future trends in sectors and employment. Economic forecasters, Experian, forecast that the number of people in employment in Fife will rise by 12.5% (15,400 jobs) between 2013 and This compares with a 7.2% increase across Scotland during the same time period. As shown from figure 19 below, the highest increase in Fife s employment numbers will be within the Accommodation, food services and recreation sector (Tourism) with an increase of 4,100 people (34.2%) employed within this sector. Other significant increases forecast include a 57.5% rise in the number of people employed within the Construction sector, this equates to approximately 3,200 people. The largest reduction in employment is forecast in the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing sector with an 82.1% (or a 900 jobs) reduction by Reductions are also forecast in the Extraction & Mining; and Manufacturing sectors. Scottish Manufacturing is expected to reduce at a greater rate than Fife at 15.2% compared to Fife s 11.5% forecasted decline. Figure 19: Forecast Changes in Employment by Sector, Fife & Scotland, Source: Experian Experian s economic forecasts also show that the number of people classed as self-employed is expected to rise by 31.8% (4,500 people) between 2013 and This is higher than the Scottish forecast of a 24.9% increase. 21

22 At a sector level, the percentage changes are different from the employment forecasts above. The largest percentage increase in self-employment within Fife is forecast in the Finance & Insurance sector. However, in numbers terms this is only an increase of 235 people. The percentage of people classed as self-employed within the Professional & Other Private Services; and the Public Services sectors are expected to increase by 47.6% and 54.0% respectively. This translates into increases of 1,450 and 1,300 people respectively between 2013 and Fife s largest sector currently for selfemployment is the Professional & Other Private Services sector and this is predicted to remain the largest by 2031 with over 4,500 Fifers forecast to be classed as self-employed within this sector. Fife s Information & Communication sector is forecast to grow self-employment by 40.8% whilst Scotland is predicted to grow by 57.6%. Figure 20: Forecasted Changes in Self-Employment by Sector, Fife & Scotland, Source: Experian Scotland recorded its fastest year of economic growth in 2013 since 2008/09. Firms and sectors will continue to adjust to changing market conditions and a challenging external environment in the near term however, particularly in Europe and emerging markets. The outlook for the labour market continues to be positive as new opportunities are created, and real wages strengthen. Along with forecast acceleration in growth, the Scottish and Fife economies look set to be in their strongest positions in recent years. 22

23 Glossary of Terms used in this Report JSA - Jobseekers Allowance The definition of the JSA Claimant count defines jobseekers as: available for, capable and actively seeking work; aged 18 or over but below State Pension age there are some exceptions for 16 and 17 year olds; working less than 16 hours per week on average; not be in full-time education Economic Activity Rate - the size of the population that comprises all persons who supply labour for the production of economic goods and services, as a proportion of the total Population. Employment rate - is persons in employment, as a percentage of the population of working age (16-64 years). Contacts and Further Links For further detailed analysis of the Fife economy please go to our main economy page on Please visit the websites listed below for information about specific aspects of Fife s businesses. Fife Economy Partnership Invest in Fife Fife Tourism Partnership Opportunities Fife Partnership Further Information on the Labour Market in Fife can be obtained from:- Mark Hynds Economic Research and Information Officer Economy, Planning & Employability Services Fife Council Tel: ext Mark.Hynds@fife.gov.uk Fife Council, having made reasonable enquiries, believes that the information contained within this publication was accurate at March Fife Council is acting as a distributor of content (not publisher) supplied by third parties. Opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not represent the opinions of Fife Council. Fife Council cannot and does not warrant the veracity of the information and excludes any liability for any party s reliance on the information contained herein. Fife Council is not responsible for the content of external internet sites. 23