No. of overseas travelers set to rise for first time in three years Weak overall consumption makes people cautious about travel expenditure

Transcription

1 Corporate Communication Division, JTB Corp Higashi Shinagawa, Shinagawa-ku, Tokyo JAPAN. Tel: , Fax: December 5, 2016 (Translation of Japanese Release No. 172) Travel Trends for Year-end/New-Year 2016/2017 (Dec Jan ) No. of overseas travelers set to rise for first time in three years Weak overall consumption makes people cautious about travel expenditure Total no. of domestic travelers: million (-2.2% y-o-y) Total no. of overseas travelers: million (+3.3% y-o-y) 12/ /1 2 3 M T W T NH S S M T W T F S NH NH T Survey period (departure basis) JTB Corp. has just published a survey of forecast travel trends involving at least one overnight stay for the year-end/new-year season from the national holiday (NH) on December 23, 2016 through to January 3, 2017 on a departure basis. The survey was based on airline reservations, industry trends, bookings with JTB and a questionnaire completed by 1,200 respondents. The results of this, the 48 th such survey since the first in 1969, are as follows. Table 1: Estimates for Year-end/New-Year 2016/2017 Travel Trends Change Increase/ Change 2016/2017 season 2015/2016 season year-on-year decrease year-on-year (estimated figures) (actual figures) year-on-year Total no. of travelers million -2.1% million million +0.2% Domestic million -2.2% million million +0.3% Overseas million +3.3% +22, million -4.7% Average expenditure on domestic travel Average expenditure on overseas travel 30,900 JPY 207,000 JPY -9.6% -3,300 JPY -4.7% -10,000 JPY ,200 JPY 217,000 JPY Total expenditure 1,039.1 billion JPY -10.4% billion JPY 1,160.3 billion JPY +5.3% +7.0% Domestic billion JPY -11.6% billion JPY 1,024.6 billion JPY +7.2% Overseas billion JPY -1.5% -2 billion JPY billion JPY -6.8% Average length 3.6 days -0.2 days 0.2 days 3.8 days ±0 Notes on the table: 1. Numbers of travelers are cumulative totals; average expenditures are per person. 2. Numbers of domestic travelers are those making overnight stays (only for tourism and trips to the family home). 3. Numbers of overseas travelers are for all those departing Japan (including business travel). 4. Domestic travel average expenditures comprise all costs incurred during travel, including transport, accommodation, meals and souvenirs. 5. Overseas travel average expenditures include fuel surcharges, accommodation, transport and meals at the destination. -2.3%

2 Socioeconomic Environment 1. Socio economic environment and underlying consumption trends In terms of the current situation for the Japanese economy, although share prices temporarily dropped directly after the result of the U.S. presidential election, they have since continued to rebound and remain on an upward trajectory. Similarly, on the foreign exchange markets the appreciation of the yen against the dollar has been halted by moves to buy dollars and sell yen. However, concerns about the future remain and the overall economic situation remains unclear (Fig. 1, Fig. 2). According to the Bank of Japan s October Short-term Economy Survey, business sentiment among major manufacturing companies remained flat and although overall business sentiment had improved one point since the previous survey, the outlook for the future among all industries had deteriorated by three points. Furthermore, according to the Household Budget Survey for October, which was announced by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications in November, the expenditure for two-or-more person households in real terms in October was down by 0.4% from the same month of the previous year to JPY281,961, prompting the ministry to note weak movement in consumption in its overall assessment. According to forecasts compiled by five private sector think tanks, the winter bonus for this year is expected to outperform the previous year s bonus for the first time in two years, rising year-on-year by 0.3% to JPY371,000 per person. However, the degree of increase has been blunted somewhat and there is a good degree of variation among different industries. Figure 1: Trends in the Nikkei Stock Average Figure 2: Trends in Foreign Exchange Rates (USD, EUR) -2-

3 2. Environment surrounding the year-end/new-year season and desire for travel among consumers Assuming that people finish work on December 28 (Wed), this year s year-end/new-year season will last from December 29 (Thu) to January 3 (Tue). Furthermore, many elementary schools have their graduation ceremonies on December 22 (Thu), making it likely that many people will use the three-day weekend from December 23 (Fri, national holiday) to December 25 (Sun, Christmas Day) to take their holiday prior to the end of the year. According to the results of the questionnaire implemented on year-end/new-year travel trends by JTB each year, this year 49.4% of respondents indicated that per person travel expenditure would be less than 20,000 yen, a 6.3 point increase on the previous year (Fig. 3). In the same questionnaire, in response to a question on the difference between year-end/new-year season last year and this year, 11.6% of respondents indicated that due to how the calendar falls this year they would be less likely to be able to take a holiday this year, with 9.7% indicating that they would be more likely to be able to take a longer holiday this year. In terms of the duration of their holiday, 5.2% of respondents indicated that they will travel a longer distance than last year and 1.9% indicated that they will travel a shorter distance than last year, with 3.2% indicating that they will travel for a longer duration this year and 9.7% indicating that they will travel for the same duration as last year. With regard to income, 9.0% of respondents noted that income has increased since last year, with 11.0% noting that it had decreased (Table 2). In terms of reasons for not traveling, although comparisons with the previous year are not possible due to changes in the questions asked, over half of all respondents indicated that they would prefer to relax at with the family at home (Fig. 4). Figure 3: Year-end/New-Year Travel Expenditure Per Person (single response) Table 2: Differences Between Year-end/New-Year Season Last Year and This Year (multiple answers) % Less likely to be able to take a holiday this year 11.6 More likely to be able to take a longer holiday this year 9.7 Will travel a longer distance than last year 5.2 Will travel a shorter distance than last year 1.9 Will travel for the same duration as last year 9.7 Will travel for a longer duration than last year 3.2 Will travel for a shorter duration than last year 1.3 Income has decreased since last year 11.0 Income has increased since last year 9.0 Bonus likely to drop compared to last year 5.2 Bonus likely to increase compared to last year 3.9 No particular differences

4 Figure 4: Reasons for Not Travelling at the Year-end/New-Year Season (multiple answers) Anticipated Trends in Year-end/New-Year Travel Number of overseas travelers set to increase to million (+3.3% y-o-y). Average expenditure on overseas travel is projected to be JPY207,000 (-4.7% y-o-y), with peak dates for departure on December 29 (Thu) and 30 (Fri), with many people returning to Japan before the end of the year During 2016 the number of Japanese traveling overseas has increased, with a cumulative total of 14,176,600 people making overseas trips between January and October, an annual increase of 4.8% (figures according to announcement by Japan National Tourism Organization (JNTO) in November). The background to this increase is the elimination of fuel surcharges on flights from April onwards and the fact that during 2016 the yen strengthened against other currencies compared to These developments can be cited as having made the environment more amenable to overseas travel (Figure 5, Table 3). Although the calendar dates for this year s year-end/new-year holiday period are short, desire for overseas travel remains high and it is projected that the number of overseas travelers during the year-end/new-year season will follow the 2016 trend and increase. Given that people cannot take a long holiday, it is thought that many will select short and medium-haul destinations and also select departure dates when fares are cheaply priced. Accordingly, average expenditure on overseas travel is projected to decrease 4.7% year-on-year to JPY207,000. Figure 5: Year-on-Year Comparisons of No. of Departing Japanese Overseas Travelers Source: Compiled by JTB Tourism Research & Consulting Co., based on data issued by the Japan National Tourism Organization -4-

5 Table 3: Tokyo Foreign Exchange JPY Market/TTS rate, according to the Bank of Mitsubishi-Tokyo UFJ as of November 25 Each Year (Unit: JPY) 100 KRW 1 HKD 1 TWD 1 CNY 1 USD 1 EUR (Mon) Nov (Tue) Nov. 25, (Wed) Nov. 25, (Thu) Nov. 25, Looking at the booking status of JTB overseas package tours (LOOK JTB), the projected peak dates for departure are set to be December 29 (Thu) and 30 (Fri). There will also be many people departing for destinations in Asia and Hawaii on December 23 (Fri, national holiday), and many travelers are likely to depart and return before the end of the year. Popular destinations include Hawaii, with a new route on Hawaiian Airlines linking Haneda Airport with Kona on Hawaii Island set to start on December 21, as well as short-haul Asian destinations such as Korea and Taiwan. Singapore, which this year marked the 50 th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations with Japan, is also a popular destination. Travel to Europe is likely to recover somewhat compared to the situation last year, with Spain proving popular following the resumption of direct flights between Japan and Spain on October 19 after a hiatus of 18 years. Northern Europe is also popular as a destination where travelers can enjoy unique seasonal attractions such as Santa Claus and the aurora borealis. Furthermore, on November 4 Air New Zealand launched a seasonal route linking Kansai International Airport with Auckland, which will operate until March 26, New Zealand has welcomed increasing numbers of Japanese travelers in recent years and this trend looks set to continue. 2. Number of domestic travelers set to decrease to 29.3 million (-2.2% y-o-y). Average expenditure on domestic travel is projected to be JPY30,900 (-9.6% y-o-y) with a peak departure date of Dec 31 (Sat) and also many travelers using the three-day weekend from December 23 (Fri, National Holiday) to make short trips In terms of the number of Japanese people engaging in domestic travel, according to the Statistical Survey of Overnight Travel conducted by the Japan Tourism Agency, the total number of overnight stays by Japanese guests for the January to September period of 2016 stood at 95.6% of the total for the previous year. On a month-by-month basis figures 97.9% for August, 92.7% for September and 99.7% for October indicating a year-on-year decline in domestic travel. Furthermore, in the Household Budget Survey implemented by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, the survey item covering accommodation expenses recorded a year-on-year change of 101.3% in August, but this slipped back to 92.8% in September and 81.9% in October. According to questionnaire results concerning means of transportation, 66.9% of respondents indicated that they would use a family car, a 2.1 point decrease over the previous year, due to a rise in the price of gasoline (Figure 6). However, the number of respondents indicating that they would use long-distance buses rose 3.7 points year on year to stand at 8.1% and the number of respondents indicating an intention to use low-cost carriers (LCC) rose 0.8 points to stand at 1.4% (Table 6). With regard to means of accommodation, the questionnaire showed that more people plan to use minshuku, pensions and publicly-run facilities (a 1.7 point increase). This would indicate a sense of caution with regard to travel expenditure and accordingly the average expenditure on domestic travel is projected to decrease 9.6% year-on-year to JPY30,

6 In terms of departure date, the majority of respondents (21.6%) indicated that they plan to depart on December 31 (Sat) (Table 11). However, looking at the booking status of JTB domestic package tours (ACE JTB), many bookings have also been made for December 23 (Fri, national holiday) and 24 (Sat) over the course of the three-day Christmas weekend for nearby destinations such as Tokyo Disney Resort, Izu and Hakone. This is the first year-end/new-year season since the opening of the Hokkaido Shinkansen in March this year and southern Hokkaido around Hakodate is also a popular destination. With regard to travel companions, most people will be traveling as a family, although the proportion of respondents indicating that they will be traveling with children (through junior high school) has decreased year-on-year (down 4.6 points). Conversely, the proportion of respondents indicating that they would be traveling with other family members (mother and daughter, three generations, etc.) rose year-on-year (up 4.2 points). There has been a sharp decrease in the number of people indicating that they will be using their spouse s family home as a means of accommodation during the year-end/new-year season (down 4.6 points year-on-year) (Table 5, Table 7). Figure 6: Trends in Retail Price of Regular Gasoline Source: Compiled by JTB Tourism Research & Consulting Co., based on data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry s Petroleum Products Price Survey. Survey Methodology Survey locations: 200 locations throughout Japan; stratified comparative distribution Survey period: November 2 14, 2016 Respondents: Males and females between the ages of 15 and 79 Sample size: 1,200 individuals (six at each of the 200 locations) Content: Travel plans involving at least one night away from home departing between December 23, 2016 and January 3, Method: Individual surveys conducted by specialist staff using a questionnaire (100% response) on personal visits. Contact for Press Inquiries: Corporate Communication Division, JTB Corp., Tel:

7 Table 4: Estimates of Overseas Travelers at the Year-end/New-Year Season (December 23, 2106 through January 3, 2017) (Unit: 000s) -7-

8 Results of the Survey (Tables 5 to 12) Table 5: Means of Accommodation (single answers, excluding overseas travel) Table 6: Means of Transportation (multiple answers, excluding overseas travel) % Y-o-y change % Y-o-y change Ryokan, hotel, minshuku, pension Car Hotel JR Shinkansen Ryokan JR / private railway lines Minshuku, pension, publicly-run facility, etc Airplane Family home Standard airlines Husband or wife s family home Low-cost carriers (LCC Live away due to work and returning home for New Year Long-distance bus Single and returning to parental home Charter bus Friend or acquaintance s home Ferry / ship Other Table 7 Travel Companions (single answers) Table 8: Travel Destination (single answers, excluding overseas travel) % Y-o-y change % Y-o-y change Family Hokkaido Children (through junior high school) Tohoku Married couple only Kanto Others (mother & daughter, three generations, etc.) Koshinetsu Family, friends and acquaintances Tokai Friends and acquaintances Hokuriku Group (fellow workers, etc.) Kinki Alone Chugoku Shikoku Kyushu Okinawa Table 9: Reasons for Travel (multiple answers) Table 10: Length of Trip (single answers, excluding overseas travel) % Y-o-y change % Y-o-y change Because I do every year days 1 night To spend time at the family home days 2 night To spend time with family and friends days 3 nights To relax at a resort or hot springs, etc days 4 nights It s the only time we can travel together days 5 nights To enjoy nature and scenery days 6 nights To enjoy the New Year mood days 7 nights To eat good food nights or more It s no fun just staying at home Have fun at a theme park, etc

9 Table 11: Day of Departure (on furthest trip) (single answers, excluding overseas travel) % Y-o-y change 12/22 (Thu) or earlier /23 (NH) /24 (Sat) /25 (Sun) /26 (Mon) /27 (Tue) /28 (Wed) /29 (Thu) /30 (Fri) /31 (Sat) / 1 (NH) / 2 (NH) / 3 (Tue) Table 12: Reasons for Not Traveling (multiple answers) % Y-o-y change Prefer to relax with the family It s too crowded Travel is expensive Can t take time off work, etc Our relatives live close by Don't particularly want to Family budget limitations Companions holiday dates, etc. clashed Domestic situation prevents leaving home I have other things to do than travel On health grounds Family budget is tighter than last year 4.4 New Concerns over future livelihood Lower bonus The dates don't fall very well this year 0.5 ±0.0 Personally affected or family affected by earthquake 0.2 New Note: In the above Tables 5 to 12, the lack of replies from some respondents or rounding down to the nearest decimal means that the total may not add up to 100%, even in the case of single response questions

10 Table 13: Trends in Published Numbers for Year-End/New-Year Travel (Dec. 23-Jan. 3 period) *First survey was conducted in Average expenditure (per Total Travelers (Ten thousand) Duration person, JPY) expenditure Total Domestic Overseas Domestic Overseas (100 million JPY) (Days) % of previous year % of previous year % of previous year % of previous year % of previous year % of previous year Change from previous year 2000/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2017 2, , , ,284 12, , , , ,927 12, , , , ,170 11, , , , ,940 11, , , , ,923 11, , , , ,449 11, , , , ,510 11, ±0.0 2, , , ,700 11, , , , ,400 11, , , , ,400 10, , , , ,100 10, , , , ,800 10, , , , ,000 10, , , ,000 11, ±0.0 3, , , ,000 11, ±0.0 3, , , ,000 11, ±0.0 2,994,6 2, , ,000 10,