Beyond Recession: California s Long-Term Economic Prospects. Jed Kolko

Transcription

1 Beyond Recession: California s Long-Term Economic Prospects Jed Kolko

2 Outline Long-term economic strengths Challenges and imbalances Policy looking forward 2

3 The Good News About California s Economy Job growth tracks the U.S. High unemployment is due to faster growing labor force High costs of doing business are offset by higher productivity Businesses are not fleeing the state Business climate measures are misleading 3

4 California Job Growth Tracks U.S. 10% 8% 6% Annual employment growth, December to December California U.S. 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% 4

5 Unemployment Highest on Record Monthly unemployment rate, to April Unemployment rate (%) California U.S

6 Growing Labor Force Explains High Unemployment Even when California booms, unemployment above national average State s labor force grows faster than U.S. Good place to live Hopeful about finding work Expect California unemployment to stay above U.S. even after recession ends 6

7 Relocation Contributes Little to Job Gains or Losses Net annual loss: 11,000 jobs out of 18,000,000 (.06%) Out-of-state moves account for 1.6% of job loss Higher-pay industries lose more jobs from relocation But overall effect on composition of jobs is small Most relocation is short-distance: toward cheaper land and within local labor market 7

8 California s Business Climate Rankings Are Low Poor rankings on many business climate indexes Average rank: 38 th Unfavorable scores for: Top marginal personal and corporate income tax rate Personal income tax progressivity Liability system burden Minimum wage Workers compensation costs 8

9 But Business Climate Rankings Are Too Narrow Focus on taxes, regulations, and other costs Exclude productivity advantages of being here Availability of skilled workers Venture capital and innovation culture Large local market Natural amenities: climate and topography Compared with U.S., average California worker: Earns 12% more Produces 13% more 9

10 Outline Long-term economic strengths Challenges and imbalances Policy looking forward 10

11 Red Flags for California s Economy Expensive real estate: now and probably forever Regional economic disparities Continued industrial shifts 11

12 California House Prices Still Way Above U.S. $ $ $ Estimated median home price (FHFA price index; 2006 ACS median home value) California U.S. 2.9x $ $ x $ $0 12

13 Inland Workforce Grows Fastest Counties projected to grow fastest are all inland Coastal regulation and cheaper inland real estate drives growth eastward Projected growth of working-age population,

14 Services Grow While Manufacturing Shrinks EDD employment growth projections, , private sector only Professional Services Educational Services Administrative Services Health Care Accommodation and Food Service Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Wholesale Trade Information Retail Trade Other Services Construction Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Finance and Insurance Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Manufacturing -1.0% 6.9% 8.7% 24.4% 23.0% 19.3% 18.2% 15.3% 14.3% 13.9% 12.7% 12.6% 12.5% 28.8% 28.4% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 20% 24% 28% 32% 14

15 Outline Long-term economic strengths Challenges and imbalances Policy looking forward 15

16 Focus on the Right Economic Measures Growth in employment or gross state product (GSP) gives the best broad view Unemployment tells us how households are faring Business relocation is a misleading measure 16

17 Consider All Sides of the Business Climate Take into account all costs and benefits of doing business in California Economic policy should balance reducing the costs and enhancing the benefits 17

18 Review Harmful Housing Policies Expensive real estate is a major cost for businesses and workers To some extent, high costs arise from topography and natural features Regulations aggravate high coastal prices and push construction inland 18

19 Notes on the use of these slides These slides were created to accompany a presentation. They do not include full documentation of sources, data samples, methods, and interpretations. To avoid misinterpretations, please contact: Jed Kolko: , kolko@ppic.org Thank you for your interest in this work. June

20 Beyond Recession: California s Long-Term Economic Prospects Jed Kolko