Raising the Minimum Wage in California. Ken Jacobs UC Berkeley Center for Labor Research and Education Policy Insights 2016 March 9, 2016

Transcription

1 Raising the Minimum Wage in California Ken Jacobs UC Berkeley Center for Labor Research and Education Policy Insights 2016 March 9, 2016

2 Real wages have fallen for the bottom half of the workforce 40% 35% 30% Change in real wages % 31.0% 20% 19.3% 17.5% 15% 10% 5% 0% 0.1% 1.5% 5.2% 0.3% 7.0% 7.1% 10.4% -5% -10% -15% -7.4% -5.5% 10th -10.8% -2.5% 20th -9.5% 30th -5.6% 40th -3.7% 50th 60th 70th California 80th U.S. 90th

3 SCOTT OLSON/GETTY IMAGES

4 Number of states with minimum wages higher than federal level 10 5 Number of cities/counties with minimum wages higher than federal level 0

5 CA Local Minimum Wage Laws Final Minimum Wage Date of Final Minimum Wage Projected 2021 Minimum Wage Berkeley $ /1/16 $14.04 El Cerrito $ /1/2019 $15.70 Emeryville (over 55 employees) $ /1/15 Emeryville (55 or fewer employees) $ /1/18 $16.55 Los Angeles (26 or more employees) $ /1/20 Los Angeles (25 or fewer employees) $ /1/21 $15.00 Mountain View $ /1/18 $16.06 Oakland $ /1/15 $14.04 Palo Alto $ /1/2016 $12.32 Richmond $ /1/18 $13.92 Sacramento $ /1/2020 $12.79 San Francisco $ /1/18 $16.06 San Jose $ /11/13 $12.00 Santa Clara $ /1/2016 $12.32 Santa Monica (26 or more employees) $ /1/20 Santa Monica (25 or fewer employees) $ /1/21 $15.00 Sunnyvale $ /1/15 $11.81

6 Estimated Impacts of CA Minimum Wage Increase to $15 in 2021 (Preliminary Estimates) Total Number of Workers 5,849,000 Percent of Workforce 34.4% Average Annual Earnings Increase $4,700 Average Percent Annual Earnings Increase 32.3%

7 96 percent of workers receiving increases are 20 or older 100% Estimated Age of Workers Affected by A $15 Minimum Wage In California 15% 10% 75% 35% 26% % 24% 22% 37% % 2% 4% % of all Workers % of Workers Getting Raises Source: Authors analysis of ACS, OES, and QCEW data. Preliminary Estimates.

8 48% of Workers Who Would Benefit Have College Experience or a Degree Estimated Educational Attainment of Workers Affected by A $15 Minimum Wage In California 100% 75% 50% 34% 8% 20% 14% 7% 28% 27% Bachelor's Degree or Higher Associate's Degree Some College 0% 14% % of all Workers % of Workers Getting Raises High School or GED Source: Authors analysis of ACS, OES, and QCEW data. Preliminary Estimates.

9 Most Affected Employees Work Full-Time Full-Time and Part-Time Status of Workers Affected by a $15 Minimum Wage in California 100% 75% 32% 50% 68% Part-Time (Fewer than 35 Hours per Week) Full-Time (35 or More Hours per Week) 0% % of All Workers Getting Raises Source: Authors analysis of ACS, OES, and QCEW data.

10 Workers in Low Income Households Would Benefit most from Increase Estimated Family Income as Share of Poverty Level for Workers Affected by A $15 Minimum Wage In California 100% 75% 54% 77% 50% 16% 9% 16% 8% 7% 0% 14% % of All Workers % of All Workers Getting Source: Authors analysis of ACS, OES, and QCEW data. Raises More than 200% of Poverty Level 150% to 200% of Poverty Level 100% to 150% of Poverty Level Less than 100% of Poverty Level

11 Half of Affected Workers Do Not Have Health Insurance Provided by their Employer 100% 30.6% 75% 50.3% 50% 69.4% No Yes 49.7% 0% % of All Workers % of All Workers Getting Raises Source: Authors analysis of ACS, OES, and QCEW data. Preliminary Estimates. Estimates.

12 Workers in Food Services, Retail Trade are Most Affected Retail Trade Food Services Manufacturing Health Services Administrative and Waste Management Services Educational Services Other Services (except Public Administration) Construction Arts, Entertainment, Recreation, and Accommodation Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, Hunting, and Mining Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, and Rental and Leasing Transporatation, Warehousing, and Utilities Social Assistance Wholesale Trade Professional, Scientific, and Management Public Administration Information % of All Workers Getting Raises % of All Workers Preliminary Estimates.

13 Workers Phased minimum wage increase Automation & productivity growth Higher wages for low-paid workers, net of automation, productivity Higher payroll costs less savings of turnover, automation, productivity Higher income after taxes and reduced public benefits Higher prices for affected industries Higher consumer demand & more jobs Reduced consumer demand & fewer jobs Net effect on jobs Businesses

14 Budgetary Impacts Costs Increased wages: IHSS DDS Civil Service Savings and New Revenue Medi-Cal Savings CalWORKs Savings Increased Sales Taxes

15 Resources Website: Facebook: UC Berkeley Labor Center