Transportation Economics Today and the Broader Small Business Landscape

Transcription

1 Transportation Economics Today and the Broader Small Business Landscape Taking the Risk Out of Small Business Lending TEANA 2017 Annual Meeting PayNet Inc. PayNet and PayNet AbsolutePD are registered trademarks of PayNet, Inc. PayNet AbsolutePD Outlook is a service mark of PayNet, Inc. 1

2 The General State of Play for the US Economy and Transportation Sector Taking the Risk Out of Small Business Lending PayNet Inc. PayNet and PayNet AbsolutePD are registered trademarks of PayNet, Inc. PayNet AbsolutePD Outlook is a service mark of PayNet, Inc. 2

3 Consensus Real GDP Growth Outlook for 2017 Growth by Prediction Month Source: Emerging Markets Economic Data Limited 3

4 US Real GDP Growth Outlook in the Second Quarter Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 4

5 US Real GDP Growth and Transportation Equipment Investment: Source: BEA 5

6 US Real GDP Growth and Transportation Equipment Investment: Source: BEA 6

7 The Small Business Economic Landscape Taking the Risk Out of Small Business Lending PayNet Inc. PayNet and PayNet AbsolutePD are registered trademarks of PayNet, Inc. PayNet AbsolutePD Outlook is a service mark of PayNet, Inc. 7

8 Thomson Reuters/PayNet Small Business Lending Index (3-Mo Rolling) May

9 Thomson Reuters/PayNet SBLI % Change vs. Year Prior (3-Mo Rolling) May 2017 % Change vs. Year Prior 9

10 Thomson Reuters/PayNet Small Business Delinquency Index % May Days Past Due 10

11 SBDI Day % vs. Thomson Reuters/PayNet SBLI Source: PayNet 11

12 Two Major Macroeconomic Trends Begin to Unwind Taking the Risk Out of Small Business Lending PayNet Inc. PayNet and PayNet AbsolutePD are registered trademarks of PayNet, Inc. PayNet AbsolutePD Outlook is a service mark of PayNet, Inc. 12

13 Importance of Declining Commodity Prices and Rising US Dollar: 2017 Food and energy prices have generally stabilized or risen since early 2016, although material volatility also present US dollar, despite definite volatility, has generally been within a small range since early 2016 Source: IMF, Federal Reserve 13

14 Where Is Strength and Weakness in Small Business Originations Today? Taking the Risk Out of Small Business Lending PayNet Inc. PayNet and PayNet AbsolutePD are registered trademarks of PayNet, Inc. PayNet AbsolutePD Outlook is a service mark of PayNet, Inc. 14

15 Industries with Weakest SBLI Growth: December 2016 Agriculture Finance Health Care Mining Transportation 15

16 Industries with Strongest SBLI Growth: May 2017 Food Admin Arts Construction Info 16

17 SBLI 6 Month Annualized Growth Rate by State: May

18 SBLI 6 Month Annualized Growth Rate by State: May

19 Change in SBLI Growth 3 Month Annualized to 6 Month Annualized 19

20 What Is the State of Play of Small Business Defaults Today? Taking the Risk Out of Small Business Lending PayNet Inc. PayNet and PayNet AbsolutePD are registered trademarks of PayNet, Inc. PayNet AbsolutePD Outlook is a service mark of PayNet, Inc. 20

21 Small Business Default Index by Industry: May 2017 Food Entertainment Finance Manufacturing Prof Services Retail OVERALL Admin Construction Health Care Mining Public Admin Transportation Agriculture Education Information Other Real Estate Wholesale 21

22 Small Business Default Index by State: May

23 Annualized Change in SBDFI by State over the Last Six Months 23

24 Difference Between Current SBDFI and Average 24

25 County-Level Borrower Weighted Probability of Default: April

26 One Year Change in County-Level Prob. Of Default: April

27 One Year Change in County-Level Prob. Of Default: April

28 What Is the State of the US Transportation Industry? Taking the Risk Out of Small Business Lending PayNet Inc. PayNet and PayNet AbsolutePD are registered trademarks of PayNet, Inc. PayNet AbsolutePD Outlook is a service mark of PayNet, Inc. 28

29 Important Macro Trends for the Transportation Industry Source: BEA, EIA 29

30 Transportation Industry SBLI Growth Rate: May

31 Change in SBLI Growth 3 Mo Ann. to 6 Mo Ann. (Transportation) 31

32 Small Business Default Index by State (Transportation): May

33 Annualized Change in SBDFI over the Last Six Mos (Transportation) 33

34 County-Level Probability of Default (Freight Transpo.): April

35 One Year Chg in Cty-Level Prob. Of Dft (Freight Transpo.): April

36 One Year Chg in Cty-Level Prob. Of Dft (Freight Transpo.): April

37 County-Level Probability of Default (Transpo. Support): April

38 One Year Chg in Cty-Level Prob. Of Dft (Transpo. Support): April

39 One Year Chg in Cty-Level Prob. Of Dft (Transpo. Support): April

40 What Is the State of the US Manufacturing Industry? Taking the Risk Out of Small Business Lending PayNet Inc. PayNet and PayNet AbsolutePD are registered trademarks of PayNet, Inc. PayNet AbsolutePD Outlook is a service mark of PayNet, Inc. 40

41 Manufacturing Industrial Production: Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 41

42 Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Rate: Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 42

43 SBLI 6 Mo Annualized Growth Rate by State (Manufacturing): Jan

44 Change in SBLI Growth 3 Mo Ann. to 6 Mo Ann. (Manufacturing) 44

45 Small Business Default Index by State (Manufacturing): May

46 Annualized Change in SBDFI over the Last Six Mos (Manufacturing) 46

47 County-Level Probability of Default (Manufacturing): April

48 One Year Chg in Cty-Level Prob. Of Dft (Manufacturing): April

49 One Year Chg in Cty-Level Prob. Of Dft (Manufacturing): April

50 Motor Vehicle and Aerospace Industrial Production: Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 50

51 Motor Vehicle Production by Vehicle Type: Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 51

52 Share of Motor Vehicle Production by Vehicle Type: Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 52

53 Motor Vehicle and Aerospace Capacity Utilization Rate: Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 53

54 County-Level Probability of Default (Motor Veh. Parts Mfg): April

55 One Year Chg in Cty-Level Prob. Of Dft (Mot. Veh. Parts Mfg.): April 17 55

56 One Year Chg in Cty-Level Prob. Of Dft (Mot. Veh. Parts Mfg.): April 16 56

57 County-Level Probability of Default (Aerospace Parts Mfg.): April

58 One Year Chg in Cty-Lev Prob. Of Dft (Aerospace Parts Mfg.): April 17 58

59 One Year Chg in Cty-Lev Prob. Of Dft (Aerospace Parts Mfg.): April 16 59

60 What Is the State of the US Health Care Industry? Taking the Risk Out of Small Business Lending PayNet Inc. PayNet and PayNet AbsolutePD are registered trademarks of PayNet, Inc. PayNet AbsolutePD Outlook is a service mark of PayNet, Inc. 60

61 SBLI 6 Mo Annualized Growth Rate by State (Health Care): May

62 Change in SBLI Growth 3 Mo Ann. to 6 Mo Ann. (Health Care) 62

63 Small Business Default Index by State (Health Care): May

64 Annualized Change in SBDFI over the Last Six Mos (Health Care) 64

65 County-Level Probability of Default (Health Care): April

66 One Year Chg in Cty-Level Prob. Of Dft (Health Care): April

67 One Year Chg in Cty-Level Prob. Of Dft (Health Care): April

68 Where Are Sources of Greatest Trade Risks? Taking the Risk Out of Small Business Lending PayNet Inc. PayNet and PayNet AbsolutePD are registered trademarks of PayNet, Inc. PayNet AbsolutePD Outlook is a service mark of PayNet, Inc. 68

69 Largest Imports to US by Product in 2016 Source: US Census Bureau 69

70 Largest Exports from US by Product in 2016 Source: US Census Bureau 70

71 Biggest Importers to US by Country in 2016 Source: US Census Bureau 71

72 Biggest Receivers of Exports from US by Country in 2016 Source: US Census Bureau 72

73 Countries with Largest Trade Deficits with US in 2016 Source: US Census Bureau 73

74 Summary US economic growth likely to finish 2017 in the 2.0%-2.5% range Recent indicators for small business statistics indicate they can contribute to economic growth given healthy financial conditions, but willingness is still a question Some default rate normalization to be expected as economic recovery moves into its ninth year The worst appears to be over with the transportation sector, although financial risk still remains elevated in some subsectors of the industry Trade risks appear to be wide ranging, but difficult to say which sectors will be targeted next given multitude of variables involved 74