Issues for Non Contributory Benefits (Social Pensions)

Transcription

1 Issues for Non Contributory Benefits (Social Pensions)

2 1. Aging Context Need to increasing labor force (productivity), but labor market policies got less attention Increase female participation (all regions). Europe (From Red to Grey) LAC: Wage and employment flexibility. Eastern: (Re)training older workers. Policies for the informal sector (microfinance?) Labor regulations (formal sector). Lifelong learning programs for 50-, 60-y.o.

3 2. LAC older worker employment patterns (Most) People do not retire in LAC. Older people continue working after retirement age, and labor incomes are key determinant of poverty among the elderly (Mex, Col. vs Bra); type of employment (and occupation) matters; other unaccounted factors are triggered in old age: health status, family demands, mobility.

4 2. Older worker employment patterns LAC labor markets show higher informality and self-employment Proportion of population Non participants Formal workers Self-employment / Informal Age 50 R Retirement Age Age 70

5 3. Evidence on labor markets for older workers: Mexico, Brazil Describe labor market outcomes: Participation and type of employment Hours worked Productivity (wages) Non market use of labor Evidence Brazil, Mexico, Colombia Distinct institutional responses: pensions, health insurance (SUS, and recently Seguro Popular, Col). Distinct impacts: poverty among the elderly in Mexico, Colombia, higher than average (reverse in Brazil)

6 3. Evidence from Mexico and Brazil Increasing labor participation after age 50 Mexico Brazil percent of population working Source: ENIGH. Author's estimation. Source: PNAD. Author's estimation.

7 3. Evidence Participation levels reflect coverage of pensions. - By age 60, two thirds are informal of self-employed. Mexico Formal Informal Brazil Self-employed Source: ENIGH Source: ENIGH 2008.

8 3. Evidence Poorer older workers are self-employed or informal Mexico: Employment during Aging Transition, by Income Level (percent of population by labor status) Non participant Formal workers Informal Self-employed Unpaid worker Brazil: Employment during Aging Transition, by Income Level (percent of population by labor status) Formal workers Informal Self-employed Unemployed 100% 80% Poorest 40 percent 100% 80% Poorest 40 percent 60% 60% 40% 40% 20% 20% 0% % % Richest 40 percent 100% Richest 40 percent 80% 80% 60% 60% 40% 40% 20% 20% 0% Source: ENIGH % Source: PNAD 2008.

9 4. Policy coordination issues Strategic objective is yet to be defined: (a) Income protection (poverty) vs (b) Employment / participation

10 Proportion of population 4. Policy coordination issues Under employment objective three policy areas: (i) social security; (ii) regulation; (iii) training Age 50 R Retirement Age Age 70

11 4. Policy Issues A. Addressing labor market regulations to expand flexible arrangements to remain employed. Adjusting hours and wages but remaining employed may entice workers for longer working life. Mainly affecting formal sector workers, but may affect likelihood to be formal as well. Needs assessment of LM regulation for this specific age group. Social pensions may affect likelihood to be formal, need to balance different objectives

12 4. Policy Issues B. Strengthening skills through training to maintain productivity and remain employed. Rationale for training may be weakened among older workers: - LAC still has high demand for physically demanding jobs (esp. rural), and education of the elderly (60+) is distant from that of younger cohorts. - Short horizon for returns from training. - Customized programs: take up among 50+ is low, needs to reckon preferences and constraints. Treat early on (OJT): unemployment duration is short.

13 4. Policy Issues C. Addressing social security incentives to extend working life or reduce informality. Contributory pension reform directions are clear, but face political obstacles. Significant impact of social pensions on participation, labor supply and formality (Mex, Bra, SAR, US, UK). Social pensions, however, have significant poverty reduction effects. Need to explicitly balance two objectives aimed at protecting consumption at old age: income transfers and employment protection.

14 Country Program Institution Argentina Bolivia Brazil PNC Asistenciales por Vejez Renta Dignidad (former Bono Solidaridad) Benefício de Prestação Continuada ( BPC) ANSES Eligibility (target pop) Retirement age, no pensions, and in poverty Amount (monthly) Number of beneficiaries US$ ,900 Cost (% of GDP) AP 60+, universal US$ , % MPS 65+ with inc. per capita < 0.25 MW US$342 Brazil Rural Pension MPS 65+, agriculture US$ ,000 Chile Chile Costa Rica Ecuador El Salvador Pension Basica Solidaria (PBS) Aporte Previsional Solidario (APS) Regimen No Contributivo (RNC) Pensión Asistencial Pensión Básica Universal 65+, in 60% lower income distribution 65+, in 60% lower income distn. $ , % $ *Contrib. 370,000 CCSS 65+, poor US$135 53,492 FISDL Mexico 70 y más SEDESOL 65+ without social security 70+ in municipalities with severe extreme poverty Universal, 70+ in <30,000 locations US$35 502,828 US$50 19,534 US$38.5 2'000, % (2010) Mexico Oportunidades Adulto Mayor Oportunidades 70+, in Oportunidades households US$ ,000 Mexico Pension Alimentaria DF Gob. DF 70+ universal US$ ,000 Paraguay Pension Alimentaria DPNC (MOH) 65+, poor meanstested 0.25*Minimum wage Peru Gratitud MIMDES 75+, poverty targeted, no pensions US$ % Trinidad and Senior Citizen Pension Tobago MPSD 65+, income tested US$ , % Uruguay Benef. No Contributivo BPS 70+, means-test US$240 31,577

15 4. Policy issues: Health & Income Health policies (insurance coverage and quality) affects participation (small effects in Mexico, seemingly larger in Colombia). Family arrangements and other income transfers (CCT) may also impact older worker behavior. Income (social pensions and CCT) policies need to align incentives to improve wellbeing (and employment). Brazil (70 percent of CCT eligible households have a member of 65+). Colombia: 40 percent of elerly in poorest households are FA eligible Assuming clarity on policy objectives (income protection vs. employment), policy articulation is the challenge ahead.