Service Sector in Indonesia. Kiki Verico, Ph.D.

Transcription

1 Disclaimer: Not For Quotation unless found in published working paper, journal, and other media forms Service Sector in Indonesia Kiki Verico, Ph.D. LPEM FEB UI, Kampus UI Salemba, Jakarta - Indonesia

2 Contents 1. RI s Service Sector 2. Global Outreaching 3. Marketing (Non Traditional Market) 4. Human Capital (Government & Market) 5. Conclusion: New Paradigm of Manufacture & Service This presentation discusses about Service Sector in Indonesia

3 Indonesia s GDP per Capita Estimation (2030) Year (?) Log 2 Log 3 Log 4 log log log (6,7,8) % = Economic growth (%) Population growth (1.1%) Depreciation rate (0.8%) Economic growth (%) = (6,7,8) % + Population growth (1.1%) + Depreciation rate (0.8%) Source: Author & the LPEM s Team Calculation for the LPDP, 2017

4 2015 Low income <= 1,025 Lower middle income 1,026-4,035 Upper middle income 4,036-12,475 High income > 12,475 Undervalue Rupiah Overvalue Rupiah Undervalue Rupiah Source: Author s figure based on ADB Statistic, 2017

5 Source: NPI Report BI, 2017

6 Source: NPI Report BI, 2017

7 Year Employer without Worker Employer with Unpaid Worker Employer with Paid Worker Worker both in Private & Government Freelance in Agriculture Freelance in Non- Agriculture Source: Calculated based on BPS data -RI, 2017 Family Worker/Unpaid One % 22% 3% 29% 4% 3% 19% 100% 32% 68% % 24% 3% 27% 5% 4% 18% 100% 30% 70% % 24% 3% 26% 5% 4% 20% 100% 29% 71% % 23% 3% 27% 5% 4% 18% 100% 30% 70% % 22% 3% 28% 6% 5% 18% 100% 31% 69% % 21% 3% 28% 6% 5% 17% 100% 31% 69% % 21% 3% 28% 6% 4% 17% 100% 31% 69% % 21% 3% 27% 6% 5% 17% 100% 30% 70% % 21% 3% 28% 6% 5% 17% 100% 31% 69% % 20% 3% 30% 5% 5% 17% 100% 33% 67% % 18% 3% 34% 5% 5% 16% 100% 38% 62% % 17% 4% 36% 5% 6% 16% 100% 40% 60% % 17% 3% 36% 5% 5% 16% 100% 40% 60% % 17% 4% 37% 4% 6% 15% 100% 41% 59% % 16% 4% 39% 4% 6% 14% 100% 42% 58% % 16% 4% 39% 5% 6% 14% 100% 42% 58% Year Agriculture Mining & Oil Gas Manufacturing Utilities Construction Domestic Trade, Hotel & Restaurants Transportation & Communication Real Estate, Financial Service and Private Sector Services Total Formal Public Service and Other Services % 1.0% 12.2% 0.2% 4.6% 20.3% 5.9% 1.4% 12.5% 100% % 1.1% 12.4% 0.2% 4.5% 21.4% 5.8% 1.5% 13.3% 100% % 1.2% 12.8% 0.2% 4.7% 21.8% 5.7% 1.6% 15.3% 100% % 1.3% 13.6% 0.3% 5.5% 23.0% 5.5% 2.1% 16.9% 100% % 1.6% 14.1% 0.3% 6.0% 23.8% 5.1% 2.8% 17.2% 100% % 1.5% 14.7% 0.3% 6.8% 24.8% 5.2% 3.0% 17.4% 100% % 1.6% 15.1% 0.3% 7.1% 25.3% 5.2% 3.1% 18.1% 100% % 1.4% 16.1% 0.3% 7.6% 26.1% 5.1% 3.6% 19.0% 100% % 1.3% 15.7% 0.4% 7.6% 27.9% 5.1% 3.4% 19.4% 100% Non Formal Total

8 Growth Primary 1% 3% 3% 2% Manufacture 5% 4% 5% 4% Utilities 7% 9% 5% 5% Construction 6% 8% 6% 5% Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles Accommodation and food service activities Transportation and storage Information and communication Financial and insurance activities 5% 7% 4% 4% 5% 6% 6% 5% 8% 6% 7% 8% 17% 24% 11% 9% 6% 6% 8% 9% Real estate activities 8% 8% 6% 4% Inflation Primary 7% 18% 3% 3% Manufacture 8% 7% 10% 11% Utilities 22% 18% 12% 9% Construction 12% 13% 14% 16% Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles Accommodation and food service activities 7% 5% 6% 8% 15% 16% 6% 7% Transportation and storage 9% 10% 13% 11% Information and communication Financial and insurance activities 13% 14% 5% 4% 4% 4% 6% 6% Real estate activities 11% 11% 10% 9% Professional, scientific, and technical activities & Administrative Support 7% 9% 8% 7% Professional, scientific, and technical activities & Administrative Support 6% 7% 8% 9% Public Administration, Defense, Social Security 1% 5% 3% 3% Public Administration, Defense, Social Security 14% 12% 17% 16% Education & Health 7% 7% 8% 5% Arts, entertainment, and recreation, HH activities, Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies & Others 7% 8% 7% 8% National Growth 4.5% 5.8% 5.4% 5.0% Source: Author calculation, ADB Statistic, 2017 Education & Health 17% 16% 15% 14% Arts, entertainment, and recreation, HH activities, Activities of extraterritorial organizations and bodies & Others 7% 8% 9% 8% National Inflation 8.6% 12.3% 4.5% 2%

9 Global Production Network Global Service Network Global Value Chain

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11 Source: Verico, MPRA, 2017

12 (%) Note: Culinary, Investment Income, Remittance, Export by one smart strategy Fashion Kuliner Kriya Film Musik Apl&Game Source: Baseline Survey of Creative Economy Roadmap on 6 Provinces 6 Sub-Sector for BEK RI, LPEM FEB UI 2016

13 Intra- and inter-regional merchandise trade, WTO: Powerhouse Source: WTO

14 Future Networks

15 Countertrade Forms Forms: Counter Purchase (Obligation to Buy) 50%, Buy Back/Compensation (Investment Creation to Trade Diversion) 15%, Production Sharing (% Natural Resources), Industrial Offsets (Local Content & Export Oriented) 25%, Switches (Second asks Third which buy Second s Products to accept the First s product which has surplus over the Second) 5% & Barter (5%) (Bussard, 1984) Double Coincidence of Wants (Jevons, 1893) generates low probability Barter 1: Pepsi & Vodka and now Pepsi is the well known soft drink in Commonwealth of Independent States (Winters & Hume, 1990) Barter 2: Indonesia exchanged 2 CN-235 with 110 thousand tons of Thai s glutinous rice (April 1996) imitated Indira Gandhi who exchanged Damri to RI s rice in late 1980 s for tariff & reserve benefits

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17 Source: LPEM Survey, 2016

18 Source: LPEM FEB UI, 2016

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20 Human Capital in Market

21 VA Level Change Remain Industry Change Industry VA Level Remain

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