GDP and private consumption (1) Unemployment rate and inflation (2) -1% -2% Economic forecasts Swiss economy (3) Créa

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1 Meta analysis economy BAK predicts for the year 2017 a GDPgrowth of for Switzerland. For 2018, the Swiss economy should grow by 2,. A strong global environment and the devaluation of the Swiss Franc will primarily boost foreign trade, whereas the excellent atmosphere among companies will attract investments. Despite the good economic outlook, BAK expects a turn in interest rates only starting from The KOF Economic Barometer continued its upward tendency in November It rose by 0,5 points to 110,3 points (after revised 109,8 in October). This is the third consecutive increase of the indicator. The UBS consumption indicator quoted at 1,54 points in October 2017, suggesting that private consumption is growing at a solid pace in the fourth quarter. A weaker Swiss Franc and a drop in unemployment provide support for domestic consumption. The procure.ch/credit Suisse Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose by 3,2 points in November 2017 and closed at 65,1 points, well within the growth zone and at its highest level since July SNB: The conditional inflation forecast of December 2017 for the coming quarters is higher than it was in September. This is mainly due to increased oil prices and the further weakening of the Swiss franc. For 2017, the SNB anticipates an inflation rate of 0, (September: 0,), for 2018 of 0,7% (September: 0,). GDP and private consumption (1) Unemployment rate and inflation (2) private consumption (change p.a.) GDP (real, change p.a.) consumer prices (change p.a.) unemployment rate unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted Source: S. Source: S, FSO. Economic forecasts Swiss economy (3) S GDP, real Private consumption Public consumption Equipment investments Investments in construction Exports Imports Unemployment rate Consumer prices Changes to previous year as a %. Consecutively, the date of the current forecast will be listed directly, the date of the previous forecast in parentheses: S: ( ), KOF: ( ), Créa: (3.2017), CS: ( ), UBS: ( ), BAK: ( ). Arrows: (previous forecast was adjusted upwards), (previous forecast was adjusted downwards), (previous forecast kept). The first forecast of the year will not be listed with an arrow. The arrows with the arithmetic means (columns on the right) show the changes of the means to the previous meta analysis economy. For all sources, please consult the last two pages «Sources and Glossary» and «Impressum». KOF Créa CS UBS BAK Arithmetic means Fahrländer Partner Raumentwicklung Seebahnstrasse 89 Münzrain Zürich 3005 Bern info@fpre.ch bern@fpre.ch «ImmobilienAlmanach Schweiz» On 21 december 2017, the guide for Swiss residential and commercial properties markets for the year 2018 will be published (in German). Order: almanach@fpre.ch Costs: CHF 150 / copy Information:

2 Overview economic indicators GDP forecast Swiss economy GDP, real KOF Créa UBS S CS BAK Ø Créa CS UBS S KOF BAK Ø Evolution of GDP (real) and unemployment rate (4) GDP real unemployment rate growth potential The potential growth lies between 1, and 1,8%, according to calculations by Fahrländer Partner. Since June 2016, the unemployment rate is based on occupation numbers according to the pooling (revised from January 2014). Source: figure 1, page 1, Fahrländer Partner (growth potential). KOF economic barometer (5) The KOF Economic Barometer is a composite leading indicator for the Swiss economy. It comprises 219 variables which are combined based on statistically determined weights. It is one to two quarters ahead of the GDP growth rate of the previous year and thus enables an initial estimate to be made of how the Swiss economy will perform in the next or in the next two quarters. The KOF Economic Barometer continued its upward tendency in November It rose by 0,5 points to 110,3 points (after revised 109,8 in October). This is the third consecutive increase of the indicator. GDP (real, change p. a., r. s) KOF Economic Barometer Source: KOF, S. Private consumption, consumer sentiment and UBS consumption indicator (6) 4 50 The UBS consumption indicator quoted at 1,54 points in October 2017, suggesting that private consumption is growing at a solid pace in the 3 30 fourth quarter. A weaker Swiss Franc and a drop in unemployment provide support for domestic consumption private consumption (in %) UBS consumption indicator Consumer sentiment, EUcompatible (right scale) 50 Source: CIO WM UBS, S.

3 Forecast adjustment Evolution forecasts GDP Q Q Q Q Q Q Forecasts 2017 Forecasts 2018 Source: cf. figure, page 1. (7) Evolution forecasts private consumption (8) Q Q Q Q Q Q Forecasts 2017 Forecasts 2018 Source: cf. figure, page 1. Evolution forecasts investments in construction Q Q Q Q Q Q Forecasts 2017 Forecasts 2018 (9) Evolution forecasts exports of goods (10) Q Q Q Q Q Q Forecasts 2017 Forecasts 2018 Source: cf. figure, page 1. Source: cf. figure, page 1. Evolution forecasts unemployment rate (11) Evolution forecasts rate of price increase (12) Q Q Q Q Q Q Forecasts 2017 Forecasts 2018 Source: cf. figure, page Q Q Q Q Q Q Forecasts 2017 Forecasts 2018 Source: cf. figure, page 1. Maximum Average The horizontal axe shows the different forecast moments. The red bars show the band width of the forecasts for the year 2017, the blue bars for the year The average is illustrated in black. Minimum

4 Detail indicators consumption S KOF CS UBS BAK Créa Ø CS UBS S Créa KOF BAK Ø Private consumption KOF S UBS BAK CS Créa Ø UBS S BAK KOF CS Créa Ø Public consumption Changes in consumption (13) Private consumption Public consumption Source: table 3, page 1. UBS consumption indicator (14) October 2017 UBS consumption indicator 2nd quarter 2017 Private consumption (in %) The UBS consumption indicator shows ca. three months in advance to the official numbers the evolution of the private consumption in Switzerland. Level of the index private consumption (in %) UBS consumption indicator Source: WMR UBS, S. Consumer sentiment index (15) October 2017 Consumer sentiment Employment stability Consumer sentiment, EUcompatible Expected economic development Note: Since the second quarter 2007, the new EUcompatible index is displayed. Level of the index Employment stability Consumer sentiment, EUcompatible Expected economic development Note: The dashed line shows the corresponding mean. Source: S. Changes turnover in retail business and new registrations of cars (16) rd quarter 2017 New registrations of cars 3rd quarter 2017 Turnover in retail business % New registrations of cars Turnover in retail business Source: FSO.

5 Detail indicators investments Equipment investments 2017 KOF Créa S UBS CS BAK Ø S KOF UBS CS Créa BAK Ø BAK CS S UBS KOF Créa Ø BAK CS S Créa UBS KOF Ø Investments in construction Changes in investments (17) 1 8% 8% 1 1 investments in construction equipment investments Source: figure 3, page 1. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) (18) Production Business backlog PMI November 2017 PMI Production Business backlog The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is based on a monthly survey of Credit Suisse and procure.ch. The PMI shows an immediate picture of business development in industry. Note: If the PMI or one of the subindices reads over (under) the 50.0 pointmark, this indicates an increase (decrease). Source: Credit Suisse, procure.ch. Level of the index Changes in credit volume, inland (19) 3 September 2017 Volume in billion CHF 2 Mortgage claims Claims on clients % Mortgage claims Claims on clients Source: SNB. Changes order inflow and balance of capital goods (20) rd quarter 2017 Total order inflow Investment order inflow Total business backlog Investment business backlog 5. % Investment business backlog Total business backlog Investment order inflow Total order inflow Source: FSO.

6 Detail indicators foreign trade Exports of goods Créa UBS S KOF BAK CS Ø Créa UBS CS S KOF BAK Ø BAK CS Créa UBS S KOF Ø CS UBS S Créa BAK KOF Ø Imports of goods Changes in foreign trade: exports and imports (21) 18% 1 1 9% 9% 1 Exports Imports Source: figure 3, page 1. Changes in exports to Germany, France, Italy, USA: contribution to growth in export volume (22) rd quarter 2017 Total exports Germany France Italy USA 2. % % Germany France Italy USA Total exports Source: Swiss Customs Administration. Real exchange rate indices, exportweighted (23) Euro Zone UK USA Japan Total EUR GBP USD JPY (100) The real external value of the Swiss Franc compared to the currencies of the most important trade partners of Switzerland is measured by the real exportweighted exchange rate index. It is often used as an indicator for the assessment of the price competitiveness of an economy. A fall in the exchange rate index means a depreciation of the Swiss Franc. Source: SNB. Exchange rate EUR/CHF and PurchasingPower Parity (PPP) (24) PPP The concept of purchasingpower parity (PPP) can be used to determinate the fair value of a currency. Purchasingpower parity exists when different currencies have the same purchasingpower due to the exchange rate and therefor the same basket of goods can be purchased with one unit of currency. If the EURCHF PPP is higher than the EURCHF exchange rate, the CHF is overvalued. EURCHF EURCHF PPP Source: UBS CIO, Macrobond.

7 AI OW UR NW AR GR LU SZ GL TG SG ZG BE SO FR BL SH CH AG VS TI ZH BS VD JU GE NE Detail indicators job market S KOF Créa CS UBS BAK Ø Créa KOF CS S UBS BAK Ø Unemployment rate Unemployment rate (25) Growth of employment Unemployment rate Note: Since June 2016, the unemployment rate is based on occupation numbers according to the pooling (revised from January 2014). Source: figure 3, page 1. Changes in unemployment rate (26) unemployment rate unemployment rate 2024 unemployment rate 60+ Registered unemployed November 2017 Number Δ* Rate TOTAL 137'317 8% 3. Secondary sector 31' % 3. Engineering 1' % 2. Chemistry, petroleum refining 1' % Third sector 97' Banking and insurance sector 6' % 2.8% * Changes to same month previous year Note: Since June 2016, the unemployment rate is based on occupation numbers according to the pooling (revised from January 2014). Source: S. Change job vacancies (27) TOTAL Third sector Banking and insurance sector Second sector Mechanical engineering Index of job vacancies TOTAL Second sector Mechanical engineering Third sector Banking and insurance sector Source: FSO. 3rd quater % 28% 2 9% Cantonal unemployment rates (28.a) Shorttime work (28.b) 6'000 5'000 4'000 3'000 2'000 1'000 0 November 2017 Source: S. Canceled working hours (in 1'000)

8 Detail indicators price increase and interests 2017 KOF S CS UBS BAK Créa Ø S KOF CS UBS BAK Créa Ø 2018 Rate of price increase Rate of price increase (29) Inflation forecast SNB Forecast December 2017 Libor 0.7 Forecast September 2017 Libor % 0. SNB: The conditional inflation forecast of December 2017 for the coming quarters is higher than it was in September. This is mainly due to increased oil prices and the further weakening of the Swiss franc. For 2017, the SNB anticipates an inflation rate of 0, (September: 0,), for 2018 of 0,7% (September: +0,) inflation Target range price stability (SNB) 3 month libor Source: figure 3, page 1, SNB. Changes in producer and import prices (30) 8% 1 1 November 2017 change to previous month change p.a. Consumer prices Producer prices Import prices % % Consumer prices Producer prices Import prices Source: FSO. Interests and monetary aggregates (31) November month Libor Confederation bonds (10 years) % October Saving growth month Libor Confederation bonds (10 years) Saving growth Monet. aggreg. M2 (in bn. CHF, r.s.) Source: FSO. Yields on Confederation bonds (32) normal band duration in years Expected interest rate Seco KOF Créa Interest rate 3monthLibor Yields on Confederat. bonds (10 years) % 0.7% % 0.7% Normal band: longterm expectations of growth (ca. 1.) plus longterm expectations of price increase (ca. 1. ) four weeks ago one year ago Source: SNB, Fahrländer Partner (normal band).

9 International indicators Economic forecasts global economy (33) GDP, real Rate of price increase Unemployment rate EU COM OECD DIW EU COM EU COM CH GER GB JAP USA EU27 Eurozone OECD Changes to the previous year as a %. Consecutively, the date of the current forecast will be listed directly, the date of the previous forecast in parentheses: European Commission (EU KOM): (1.2017), OECD: (.2017), DIW: ( ). Arrows: (previous forecast was adjusted upwards), (previous forecast was adjusted downwards), (previous forecast kept). The first forecast of the year will not be listed with an arrow. OECD DIW OECD DIW International GDP (34) International unemployment rates (35) 1 1 8% 8% USA Euro Zone Germany Switzerland USA Euro Zone Germany Switzerland International expectations inflation (36) USA Euro Zone Germany Switzerland Source: OECD.

10 Special topic: Energy industry in Switzerland (1) Development workplaces and fulltime equivalents energy sector (37) Development fulltime equivalents (38) 120 Workplaces absolut in % 2. Sector in % Switzerland total '008 1' Fulltime equivalent absolut in % 2. Sector in % Switzerland total ' ' ' Energy sector Secondary sector Switzerland (total) Note: Indexed base 2005 = 100. Source: FSO, Fahrländer Partner. Source: FSO, Modeling Fahrländer Partner. Final energy consumption in terajoule (TJ) and in % of GDP (39) Development of energy prices for consumers (40) 1'000' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' ' Energy consumption in TJ (left scale) % GDP (right scale) Heating oil Gasoline Electricity Gas Note: final energy expenses in % of nominal GDP. Note: development of energy prices for consumers (real); indexed 2005 = 100. Source: FSO, SFOE. Source: SFOE, Modeling Fahrländer Partner. Final energy consumption by energy carriers in TJ (41) 2006: 875'330 TJ : 854'300 TJ Petroleum fuels Fuels Electricity Gas Wood and charcoal District heating Coal and coke / industrial waste Other renewable energies Source: FSO, SFOE. Energy foreign trade in TJ and in % consumption (42) Crude oil, petroleum products Electricity Imports Exports Balance Imports Exports Balance TJ % TJ % TJ TJ % TJ % TJ ø ' ' '443 ø ' ' '534 ø ' ' '308 ø '958 98% 212' ' '646 97% 20' ' ' '736 59% 14'122 Gas Other energy carriers Imports Exports Balance Imports Exports Balance TJ % TJ % TJ TJ % TJ % TJ ø ' % 115'990 ø '366 18% 493 6'872 ø ' '902 ø ' ' ' % 125' ' '368 Note: Other carriers (wood and charcoal / coal) Source: FSO, SFOE, Modeling Fahrländer Partner.

11 Special topic: Energy industry in Switzerland (2) Distribution of final consumption by consumer groups (43) 2006: 888'660 TJ 2016: 854'300 TJ 3 29% 3 28% % 18% Households Industry Services Transport Statistical difference (agriculture included) Source: SFOE. Energy consumption per person in kilowatt hour (kwh) (44) 34'000 32'000 30'000 28'000 26'000 24'000 22'000 20' Energy consumption per person in kilowatt hour (kwh) Source: FSO, Modeling Fahrländer Partner. Distribution of household final consumption (45) 2006: 259'860 TJ 7% 2016: 240'710 TJ 1 48% 8% % Petroleum products Electricity Gas Wood energy District heating Other renewable energies Source: SFOE.

12 Sources und Glossary Nb. of fig. Note Indicator Source Data as of 1 Real change as a % compared to previous year S 3rd quarter Level as a % Unemployment rate S November 2017 Changes compared to previous year. Consumer prices FSO November Changes compared to previous year. Forecasts S KOF Créa Credit Suisse UBS BAK Real change as a % compared to previous year S 2016 (at previous year prices). Forecasts figure 3 5 KOF Economic Barometer KOF November 2017 GDP S 3rd quarter Private consumption S 3rd quarter 2017 UBS consumption indicator UBS October 2017 Consumer confidence S 4th quarter S KOF Créa Credit Suisse UBS BAK Real change as a % compared to previous year S 2016 (at previous year prices). Forecasts figure 3 14 UBS consumption indicator UBS October 2017 Private consumption S 3rd quarter Consumer confidence S 4th quarter Quarterly date, changes as a % compared to previous year. New registrations of cars FSO 3rd quarter 2017 Sales in retail business, adjusted, real. Retail trade turnover FSO 3rd quarter Real change as a % compared to previous year S 2016 (at previous year prices). Forecasts figure 3 18 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) procure.ch, CS November Outstanding credit (gross receivable), SNB September 2017 Change as a % compared to previous year (nominal values). 20 Real change as a % compared to previous year FSO 3rd quarter 2017 (at prices of previous year), except construction business. 21 Real change as a % compared to previous year S 2016 (at previous year prices). Forecasts figure 3 22 Shares of exports to Germany, France, Italy and the USA FCA 3rd quarter 2017 to the relative growth of export volume in percentage points. Administration Relative changes in growth of total exports as a % compared to the previous year (nominal values). 23 SNB November UBS, Macrobond Unemployment rate as a percentage. Employment growth Unemployment rate S November 2017 (fulltime equivalent) in the second and third sector as Employment growth S 2016 percentage change compared to the previous year. Forecasts figure 3 26 Changes compared to previous year. S November Changes compared to previous year. FSO JOBSTAT 3rd quater a Unemployment rate S November b Shorttime Work S September Consumer price index (changes as a % compared to previous year). Inflation FSO November monthLibor as a % 3monthLibor SNB November 2017 Forecasts figure 3 30 Changes compared to previous year. FSO November Interests SNB November 2017 Monetary base SNB October 2017 Saving growth SNB October SNB November 2017 Normal band Fahrländer Partner Changes compared to previous year. Forecasts EU Commission OECD DIW 34 Real change as a % compared to previous year OECD (at previous year prices) OECD 3738 Special topic FSO Special topic FSO, SFOE Special topic SFOE Special topic FSO, SFOE Special topic SFOE Special topic FSO Special topic SFOE

13 Impressum Disclaimer Impressum Fahrländer Partner Raumentwicklung elaborates the meta analysis economy with highest care. Despite this, it is not possible to guarantee the accuracy, correctness, timeliness and completeness of all the information. Also check original sources. The meta analysis economy is compiled based on the newest available data. Authors: Mattia FareiCampagna, Dominik Matter, Benito Rutishauser and Jaron Schlesinger. The overview of the monitor regulation can be accessed or subscribed: Sponsoring Contact The meta analysis economy is a free service offered by Fahrländer Partner Raumentwicklung. We offer you the possibility to appear as a sponsor in this publication. Please contact us. Fahrländer Partner Raumentwicklung Seebahnstrasse 89 Münzrain Zürich 3005 Bern info@metaanalysen.ch info@metaanalysen.ch