CIO WM Research. Swiss Chartset Last update: 8 January 2014

Transcription

1 CIO WM Research Swiss Chartset Last update: 8 January 2014

2 Contents Section 1 Economy 2 Section 2 Prices, Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, Monetary Indicators 27 Section 3 Switzerland in international comparison 46 This report has been prepared by UBS AG. Past performance is no indication of future performance. The market prices provided are closing prices on the respective principal exchange. This applies to all performance charts and tables in this publication. 1

3 Section 1 Economy

4 KOF economic barometer and GDP y/y-change in % Source: Reuters EcoWin, KOF, UBS 3

5 Quarterly GDP growth contributions percentage points Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS 4

6 Annual GDP growth contributions percentage points Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS 5

7 UBS Consumption Indicator and private consumption y/y-change in % index Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS 6

8 Equipment investment y/y-change in % in % Source: Reuters EcoWin, KOF, UBS 7

9 Construction investment in bn CHF, with 2005 prices, seasonally adjusted as % of GDP Construction Investment (lhs) Share of GDP (rhs) Source: Reuters EcoWin, KOF, UBS 8

10 Current account as % of GDP Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS 9

11 Foreign trade (goods) in bn CHF per month in bn CHF per month exports (lhs) imports (lhs) net exports (rhs) -4.0 Source: SNB, UBS 10

12 Net exports (goods) in CHF bn/month (billions) Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS 11

13 Swiss exports versus world trade 75 bn CHF (with prices of 2000), seasonally adjusted Index, 2005=100 Switzerland, Exports (total) World trade Source: seco, Reuters EcoWin, UBS 12

14 Goods exports and their growth by destination Germany EU excl. Ger BRIC Asia excl. JpChnInd Nafta Others Okt Apr Okt Apr Okt Apr Okt Apr Germany EU excl. Ger BRIC NAFTA Rest Total growth Asia excl. JpChnInd Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS 13

15 Goods exports a comparison 140 moving average/12 months; Nov. 2009= Jan Apr Jul Okt Jan Apr Jul Okt Jan Apr Jul Okt Jan Apr Jul Okt Germany Switzerland Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS 14

16 Goods exports by industry sector Moving average over 12 months, in percent of GDP Pharma Other services Machinery Other goods Watches Transit trade Tourism Financial services Chemical industry (excl. pharma) Precision instruments Metal-working industry Electronics Food Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS 15

17 Goods exports by industry sector Moving average over 12 months, Index 1997 = Moving average over 12 months, Index 1997 = 100 Transit trade (right scale) Pharma Food Watches Precision instruments Other services Other goods Tourism Electronics Metal-working industry Chemical industry excl. Pharma Machinery Financial services Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS 16

18 Goods exports and hotel stay overs in million stay overs/month, 12-month moving average Goods exports Stay overs Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS 17

19 Hotel stay overs Total 2012 and change since 2008 China incl. Hongkong 2% Japan 1% Other Asia 4% Others 8% NAFTA 5% Switzerland 45% Other EU 21% Germany 13% Source: FSO, UBS 18

20 Labor market in % Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS 19

21 Employment trend Change since last year -5'000-3'000-1'000 1'000 3'000 5'000 7'000 9'000 11'000 13'000 15'000 Others Services for companies Health and social services Construction Public sector Wholesale Logistics Tourism Retail sales Banking and insurance Machinery, electro and metals -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% relative change (lower scale) absolute change (upper scale) Source: FSO, UBS

22 Employment trend Change since ' ' ' ' '000 50' '000 Jul 09 Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Others Services for companies Health and social services Construction Public sector Wholesale Logistics Tourism Retail sales Banking and insurance Machinery, electro and metals Total Source: FSO, UBS

23 Change of permanent resident population June 2007: removal of quotas in 1, Birth surplus Net migration Total Source: FSO, UBS 22

24 Immigration Gross immigration, per month (thousand) Gross immigration, cumulative (thousand) 90 Net immigration, cumulative (thousand) Immigration Trend Quelle: FOM, UBS 23

25 Structure of the Swiss economy Full-time equivalent employees by industry 2012 Others 26% Construction (including real estate, architetural and engineering office) 12% Retail sales 7% Electro 4% Health & social services 12% Metals 3% Tourism 5 % Machinery 2% Logistics 5% Wholesale 6% Public sector 4% Services for companies 8% Banking and insurance 6% Source: Job Statistics FSO, UBS 24

26 Long-term sector positioning (2012) Source: BAK Basel, KOF, FSO, UBS 25

27 UBS forecasts Switzerland % change yoy in real terms Forecasts UBS Level* F 2014F 2015F Gross domestic product Private consumption Government spending Capital spending Construction Equipment Exports Imports Inflation Unemployment rate *Year 2012 (in CHF bn at current prices) F: Forecasts UBS Source: seco, UBS 26

28 Section 2 Prices, Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, Monetary Indicators

29 Inflation annual rates in % Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS 28

30 Inflation by origin annual rates in % Domestic inflation Imported inflation Total inflation Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS 29

31 Inflation by goods category Contribution to inflation in November % 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% -0.3% -0.4% -0.5% -0.6% Other goods and services Restaurants and hotels Education Recreation and culture Housing and energy Alcoholic beverages and tobacco Food Clothing and footwear Household furniture Health Transport Communications Yearly consumer price increase Source: FSO, UBS 30

32 SNB's monetary policy Forecasts in % M Libor Target range Target Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS 31

33 Interest rates Forecasts Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS 32

34 Interest rates Swap 2Y Swap 3Y Swap 5Y Forecasts Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS 33

35 Monetary aggregates: M in CHF (billions) Sight deposits of domestic banks Banknotes in circulation M0 Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS 34

36 Monetary aggregates: M1-M3 in bn CHF Source: SNB, UBS 35

37 Mortgage claims against private households Source: Reuters EcoWin, SNB, UBS 36

38 Property price indices (nominal) Q1970= Owner-occupied apartments Single-family houses Rented apartments (rental prices) Office space (rental prices) Industrial space (rental prices) Source: Wüest & Partner, UBS 37

39 Property price indices (real) Q1970=100, deflator=cpi Owner-occupied apartments Single-family houses Office space (rental prices) Industrial space (rental prices) Rental appartements (rental prices) Source: Wüest & Partner, UBS 38

40 Property price indices (real) Q2000=100, deflator=cpi Owner-occupied apartments Single-family houses Source: Wüest & Partner, UBS 39

41 SNB balance sheet (in bn CHF) Assets Liabilities Source: SNB, UBS 40

42 EURCHF and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) EURCHF EURCHF PPP Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS 41

43 USDCHF and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) USDCHF USDCHF PPP Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS 42

44 Real exchange rate of the Swiss franc and deviations from the trend GDP-weighted (lhs) Trend (lhs) Deviation from trend (rhs) Export-weighted (lhs) Trend (lhs) Deviation from trend (rhs) Source: Reuters EcoWin, SNB, UBS 43

45 Real exchange rate of the Swiss franc Index Export-weighted GDP-weighted Source: Reuters EcoWin, SNB, UBS 44

46 Real exchange rate of the Swiss franc since 2009 Real exchange rates 130 Drivers of real exchange rate = Change since GDP-weighted Export-weighted USA Russia UK India Brazil China Korea Eurozone Japan Mexico The real export-weighted exchange rate of the Swiss franc is calculated as the Paasche-Index on the basis of 33 countries and constant export weights as of Source: Reuters EcoWin, SNB, UBS 45

47 Section 3 Switzerland in international comparison

48 World trade and industrial production World trade (1991=100) Industrial production (1991=100) advanced emerging total advanced emerging total Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS

49 Global economic growth since 2000 thousand bn USD (at constant 2011 exchange rates) Forecasts BRIC NAFTA EU Japan Middle East Other Asia Others Source: Reuters EcoWin, IMF, UBS 48

50 Real GDP Level, 1Q2005=100 Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS 49

51 Growth differential Switzerland - Eurozone Forecasts percentage points Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS 50

52 Unemployment rate in % Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS 51

53 Unit labor costs Index, 2000= Switzerland Greece Italy Netherlands UK Spain France Austria Germany Source: Reuters EcoWin, Eurostat, UBS 52

54 Business climate Normalized Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS 53

55 Consumer sentiment Normalized Switzerland (seco) USA (Conference Board) Eurozone (European Commission) Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS 54

56 Inflation rates annual rates in % Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS 55

57 Monetary policy target rates Forecasts in % Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS 56

58 Monetary base as % of GDP Switzerland Euro Zone UK US Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS 57

59 Cumulative current account balances since 1980 (in % of global GDP) Source: Reuters EcoWin, IMF, UBS 58

60 Openness of economies (measured by foreign trade) Switzerland and next three larger/smaller OECD-countries 59

61 Net external assets in % of GDP Trillions USD (2) (4) Source: IMF, UBS 60

62 10Y government bond yields Forecasts in % Switzerland USA Germany Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS 61

63 Real interest rates in % Switzerland Euro zone Inflation CHF 3M Libor CHF real interest rate Inflation EUR 3M Libor EUR real interest rate USA GB in % in % Source: Reuters EcoWin, UBS 62

64 Government debt as % of GDP Source: Reuters EcoWin, OECD, UBS 63

65 Contact Information Dr. Caesar Lack UBS CIO WM Research Economist, Director Swiss Economic Research Pelikanstrasse 19, P.O. Box CH-8098 Zurich Tel: Bernd Aumann UBS CIO WM Research Economist, Swiss Economic Research Pelikanstrasse 19, P.O. Box CH-8098 Zurich Tel: Sibille Duss UBS CIO WM Research Economist, Swiss Economic Research Pelikanstrasse 19, P.O. Box CH-8098 Zurich Tel:

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