Table. Growth Trends Goals. o Department o Reductions - Capital Finance. n o Demograph Goals. Notes

Transcription

1 Table of Contents Retreat Information - Agenda Directions to Sheriff s Law Enforcement Trainingg Center... 4 Rules of Procedure - Board of Commissioners Rules of Procedure... 5 Growth Trends - Growth Trends in Wake County Presentation Goals Goals Accomplishments Goals Presentation Budget and Finance - Operating Budget Presentation o Department t Reductions Summary o Reductions by Department Capital Finance Presentation o Financial Model Scenarios Upcoming Issues - Future Building Program Presentatio n o WCPSS Student Enrollment Projections Memo o Economic Indicators o Demograph ic Indicators o WCPSS Enrollment Projections and School Crowding Transit Presentation Goals - Draft 2011 Board of Commissioner Goals Notes - Notes

2 Agenda 8:00 am Arrive 8:30 am Convene Meeting Chairman Paul Coble Welcome Sheriff Donnie Harrison Overview of the Retreat David Cooke and Denise Foreman 8:40 am Review Board of Commissioners Rules of Procedure Scott Warren 9:00 am Growth Trends Update Frank Cope 10:00 am Update on Board of Commissioners Goals for 2010 Joe Durham 10:15 am Break 10:30 am Operating Budget Update Johnna Rogers Capital Financing and CIP Update Nicole Kreiser Noon Lunch 1:00 pm Upcoming Issues: Future Building Programs Nicole Kreiser o Wake Tech o Wake County Public Schools Transit David Cooke Multi-Year Planning David Cooke Other 2:00 pm Discussion of Board of Commissioners Goals for 2011 David Cooke 3:15 pm Break 3:30 pm Continue Discussion of Board of Commissioners Goals for :15 pm Retreat Summary and Next Steps Denise Foreman 5:30 pm Adjourn 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 3

3 Directions to the Sheriff s Law Enforcement Training Center Physical Address: Sheriff s Law Enforcement Training Center 2300 Law Enforcement Drive Raleigh, NC From I-40: Take exit 306 towards Clayton/Smithfield Take Highway 70 Business East Turn LEFT onto Auburn-Knightdale Road Cross over East Garner Road Cross over Rock Quarry Road Turn RIGHT onto Battle Bridge Road Turn LEFT onto Law Enforcement Drive Law Enforcement Training Center 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 4

4 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 5

5 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 6

6 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 7

7 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 8

8 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 9

9 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 10

10 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 11

11 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 12

12 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 13

13 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 14

14 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 15

15 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 16

16 Growth Trends in Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat February 4, 2011 Presentation Sequence I. Population II. Housing & Land Development III. Economy IV. Education 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 17 1

17 2010 Population Source: NC Demographics Population Projection Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 18 2

18 Most Populous Counties in North Carolina #1 Largest Population Growth in NC since 2000: 264,593 people* #2 Largest Municipal Population in NC (2009): 677,950 people within city limits* With Total Growth Rates Mecklenburg 28.6% Wake 42.1% #1 Fastest Growing County in US with population more than 500,000** #3 Fastest Growing County in NC since 2000: 42.1%* #1 Highest Net Migration in NC since 2000: 187,690 people* #54 Most Populous County in US: New Residents 29,146 (80/per day) July 2009** Source: *NC Demographics; **US Census Population Estimate 2009 Municipal Population Growth Jurisdiction % Growth Angier 78 Apex 21,233 34, % Cary 97, , % Fuquay Varina 8,198 17, % Garner 18,832 27, % Holly Springs 10,123 21, % Knightdale 6,312 10, % Morrisville 5,568 14, % Raleigh 290, , % Rolesville 990 3, % Wake Forest 13,076 27, % Wendell 4,418 5, % Zebulon 4,096 4, % Unincorporated 169, , % Wake County 633, , % Source: US Census Municipal Population 2000 & Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 19 3

19 Median Age 38 Median Age Wake County North Carolina United States Source: American Community Survey Median Age Data % 8% Population Growth Rate Changes Total Population Growth Rate (%) 7% 6% 5% 4.0% 4% 3% Population 5 19 Population 65+ Live Births 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 4.3% 5.2% 6.1% 5.73% 4.9% 3.5% 6.75% 4.4% 4.8% 5.96% 4.0% 3.4% 2% 1.8% 1% Year 4.0% Births Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 20 4

20 Natural Increase Natural Increase 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 9,114 9,281 9,458 8,860 8,581 8,242 7,564 7,746 7,324 7, people per day 20.1 people per day 20.7 people per day 21.2 people per day 23.0 people per day 23.5 people per day 25.0 people per day 25.4 people per day 25.9 people per day 24.3 people per day Year Source: NC State Center for Health Statistics My Home Counts Wake County Foreign Born Population 1990 Census 16, Census 60, ACS * 111,214 Isabelle Naylor, 6 th grader at Apex Middle School, WCPSS * U. S. Census Bureau American Community Survey 1 Year Estimate 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 21 5

21 2010 Census Data - 9,535,483 NC Residents Next 2010 Census Product Planned Release Feb Mar 2011 Race and Hispanic Origin Housing Units Counts Available for U.S., States, Counties, Cities, Census Tracts and Blocks Source: US Census Burea Population Projections Total Population 1,100,000 1,000, , ,000 NC Demographics Certified Population NC Demographics Population Projection* 700, , ,498702, , ,000 Wake County Total Population Projections 757, , ,401 1,030,015 1,002, , , , , , ,537 1,057, , ,000 Year Source: NC Demographics Certified Population and Population Projection Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 22 6

22 Certificates of Occupancy 16,000 New Single Family and Rental Units Rental Units Single Family Units 14,000 Number of Units 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 1,125 1,923 2,513 5,446 3,145 1,283 1,528 1,665 3,624 11,512 11,833 10,529 9,460 9,236 9,780 8,953 8,878 5,785 2,413 2, Source: Wake County Revenue Department 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 23 7

23 Residential Units Sold $300,000 Residential Sold Average Price Average Price (dollars) $280,000 $260,000 $240,000 $220,000 $200,000 $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 $218,220 $222,016 $206,211 $206,975 $203,335 $193,085 15,454 Units Sold 18,499 Units Sold 14, 874 Units Sold 19,635 Units Sold 18,611 Units Sold 21,467 Units Sold $254,964 $257,558 $267,773 $248,948 $264, ,998 Units Sold 23,040 Units Sold 14,507 Units Sold 11,647 Units Sold 10,045 Units Sold Year Source: Wake County Revenue Department Grand Total Building Permit Summary January to December Total Permits Total Permitted Cost TOTAL PERMITS 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 3,750,000,000 3,250,000,000 2,750,000,000 2,250,000,000 1,750,000,000 1,250,000, ,000,000 TOTAL PERMITTED COST YEAR 250,000, Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 24 8

24 Total New Permits Source: Wake County Revenue Department Annexations Annexations Completed in 2010 by Municipality Jurisdiction Number of Existing Annexations Residential Units Acreage Apex Cary Fuquay-Varina Garner Holly Springs Knightdale Morrisville Raleigh Rolesville Wake Forest Wendell Zebulon Municipal Total Source: Wake County Planning, Development, & Inspections 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 25 9

25 Historical ETJ Expansions ETJ Granted Since 2004 Year Acreage , , , , , ,663 Total 23,668 Source: Wake County Planning 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 26 10

26 Largest Employers Wake County Major Employers # Employees State of North Carolina 24,739 WCPSS 16,755 Rex Healthcare/Hosp. 7,650 NC State University 7,500 WakeMed Health/Hosp. 7,100 GlaxoSmithKline 6,000 SAS Institute Inc 4,149 Wake County Government 3,744 Cisco Systems 3,400 Wake County Major Employers # Employees Progress Energy 3,100 City of Raleigh 3,000 Verizon 3,000 RTI International 2,600 Tri Arc Foods 2,050 Waste Industries USA Inc 2,000 US EPA 2,000 Wal Mart 1,900 Lenovo 1,600 Food Lion 1,600 Source: Wake County Chamber of Commerce Employment Employed Persons * 415, , , , , , , ,294 Wake County Year , , , ,529 Mecklenburg County , , , , , , , ,000 Number of Employed Persons Source: NC Employment Security Commission * As of November Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 27 11

27 Unemployment Percentage (%) 12.0% Unemployment Rates % 11.0% 10.7% 10.0% 10.5% 9.7% 9.0% 8.0% 8.4% 8.2% 7.0% Wake County 6.0% Mecklenburg County 5.0% 5.6% 5.3% NC 4.4% 4.7% U.S. 4.0% 4.0% 4.1% 3.6% 3.4% 3.0% 2.4% 2.0% Year Source: NC Employment Security Commission *As of November 2009 Income & Poverty Area Median Household Income Median Family Income Poverty Rate* United States $50,221 $61, % North Carolina $43,674 $54, % Durham County $48,457 $61, % Johnston County $49,102 $55, % Orange County $50,159 $73, % Wake County $63,609 $82, % * Poverty rate based on families with children under 18 years of age Source: US American Community Survey 2009 Income and poverty data 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 28 12

28 Bankruptcies Wake County Bankruptcy Filings, ,500 4,000 4,036 Number of Filings 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,621 2,255 2,504 2,941 2,963 1,393 1,856 2,170 2,961 2,730 1, Year * Includes Business and Personal Bankruptcy Filings Source: United States Bankruptcy Court, Eastern District of North Carolina Foreclosure Trends Foreclosure Filings Actual Foreclosures ,500 5,584 5,179 2,000 1,686 1,860 1,997 4,745 1,500 1,130 1,247 1,230 4,461 1,000 3,711 3,478 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6, Year Source: NC Administrative Office of the Courts Source: ForeclosureS.com 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 29 13

29 Foreclosures Source: Foreclosures.com 2010 Tax Base Components 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Tax Ratio % 31% 28% 63% 69% 72% Tax Values Residential Value 88.6 Billion Commercial Value 33.8 Billion Total Value Billion Source: Wake County Revenue Department 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 30 14

30 Jurisdictional Tax Base JURISDICTION % COMMERCIAL % RESIDENTIAL Angier 17% 83% Apex 23% 77% Cary 25% 75% Clayton 0 100% Fuquay Varina 32% 68% Garner 40% 60% Holly Springs 20% 80% Knightdale 36% 64% Morrisville 44% 56% Raleigh 31% 69% Rolesville 21% 79% Wake Forest 24% 76% Wendell 25% 75% Zebulon 72% 28% Countywide 28% 72% Source: Wake County Revenue Department Assessed Values $140,000 $120,000 Wake County Assessed Values 2011/12 Projection $119.1B $100,000 Millions $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0 ** Revaluation Year Source: Wake County Revenue Department 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 31 15

31 Assessed Value Growth 8.0% Assessed Value Percent Growth (Adjusted for Revaluation) 7.0% 7.1% 6.9% 6.0% 5.0% 6.1% 6.4% 6.6% 6.5% 4.9% 5.6% 4.9% 5.4% 6.3% 4.0% 3.9% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.2% ** Revaluation Year Source: Wake County Revenue Department Actual Property Tax Revenue $700 Actual Property Tax Revenue 2011/12 $632,638,000 $600 $500 Millions $400 $300 $200 $100 $ Source: Wake County Revenue Department 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 32 16

32 Property Tax Revenue Change in Property Tax Revenue (% Change) 25.0% 20.0% 22.6% 15.0% 10.0% 12.4% 12.0% 10.1% 12.6% 10.5% 5.0% 0.0% 5.7% 6.2% 6.4% Tax Rate Increase 5.4% 4.6% Tax Rate Increase 4.0% 4.8% Tax Rate Increase % 0.6% Source: Wake County Revenue Department 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 33 17

33 2009 Educational Attainment Wake County Residents 25 Years and Over 48% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 2009 Student Enrollment Increase Net Student Increase Student Increase with Growth Rates 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, % 4, % 5, % 6, % 7, % 5, % 3, % 1, % 3,690 0 School Year Source: Wake County Budget Office & Wake County Schools November Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 34 18

34 WCPSS Projections 20 th Day Student Enrollment 143,289 ( ) Enrollment Projections 180,000 Enrollment Projections Actual Enrollment 143, , , , ,000 80,000 60, ,000 Source: Wake County Budget Office & Wake County Schools November 2010 Updated Enrollment Projections: Enrollment Projections: CIP 2006, Fall 2009, and January , , , , , , , , , , CIP 2006 Enrollment Projections Fall 2009 Enrollment Projections Jan 2011 Enrollment Projections 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 35 19

35 WCPSS Diversity School Year School Year Asian 6.0% Others 5.0% Others 5.0% Asian 6.1% Hispanic 14.6% Hispanic 11.8% Black 24.8% White 49.6% Black 25.9% White 51.1% Source: Wake County Public School System Wake Tech Enrollment Total Wake Tech Enrollment Degree/For Credit: 22,817 Continuing Education: 40,340 Source: Wake Technical Community College 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 36 20

36 2010 Board of Commissioners Goals Accomplishments I. The Economy and Jobs 1. Develop and approve a budget for fiscal year that maintains the property tax rate at 53.4 cents. A balanced budget of $951 million was adopted for FY2011 without requiring an increase to the County s property tax rate. 2. Continue to work with Wake Technical Community College, the Wake Economic Development Program and existing businesses to attract new jobs, to retain jobs and to provide training to individuals in transition. These efforts are on going with the Wake Economic Development Program. Despite the economic downturn, Wake County announced 47 new and expanding companies, resulting in 2,883 new jobs and $335 million in new investment in The Wake County Economic Development team worked on 79 new projects, participated in 28 client company visits, and interacted with 753 existing industries. Wake County Economic Development worked to establish the foundations for talent recruitment and talent retention efforts in After a strategic review of current efforts, a consultant was selected that will work in 2011 to design and implement a talent blueprint and marketing plan for Edge 4 in Wake County. Wake Tech served more than 63,000 students in Wake County and held the largest graduating class in the history of the College. The College continues to focus on its priorities: 1. Promote economic growth and development in Wake County through education partnerships with business and industry; 2. Maximize the use of existing facilities and develop additional facilities to serve Wake County s growing population; 3. Locate new facilities more convenient to the population base; and 4. Ensure that Wake County citizens have the knowledge and skills required to compete and be successful in the global economy. To address continued enrollment growth, the Board of Commissioners provided funds to Wake Tech in its FY 2011 CIP to update Wake Tech's 2006 Master Plan. Wake Tech provided County staff their updated master plan in December County staff and Wake Tech are meeting to discuss the scope of the 2010 master plan, which calls for $338 million for new facilities and parking needs Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 37

37 2010 Board of Commissioners Goals Accomplishments 3. Evaluate the County s Economic Development policies with regard to promoting the creation and expansion of small businesses. Staff worked with the Greater Raleigh Chamber of Commerce on a review of services to small businesses and on active recruitment of businesses. Additionally, Wake County Economic Development developed a Small Business Resource Guide to assist entrepreneurs with information needed to start a new business in Wake County. The Guide identifies and directs users to resources to assist with business plan development, workforce training, business incubators, financing advisors and resources, licensing requirements and many other important aspects of starting a new business. II. Transit 4. Work with Triangle Transit to develop a Transit plan that is financially sound and will be supported by Interlocal Agreements with each municipality. The County Manager and Triangle Transit Director met with the Boards of each municipality in Wake County to discuss the approach to developing a sustainable transit plan. Additionally, municipal managers meet monthly to discuss progress in transit planning. The Transit Plan that will take shape in 2011 will be comprised of two components: Bus Plan and Rail Plan. Bus Plan The Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organization, Triangle Transit, Capital Area Transit / City of Raleigh, Town of Cary, Wake County, North Carolina State Wolfline, and municipalities in Wake County are working collaboratively to prepare a Capital Area Bus Transit Development Plan that identifies short and long range improvements to the region s bus services. Rail Plan Triangle Transit, in collaboration with Wake County, local municipalities, regional planning organizations, state and federal agencies and the public has initiated the Alternatives Analysis process which studies the regional rail investment opportunities within the area s rail corridors. 5. Work with Triangle Transit, the municipalities, and the business community to consider a ½ cent sales tax referendum schedule no sooner than the Fall of The Regional Transportation Alliance (RTA) has been working closely with the business community throughout the region by providing information on the planning efforts for the Wake County Transit Plan. The RTA has also conducted several focus groups and polling studies to gather information on public sentiment for a ½ cent sales tax. Wake County has initiated the Interlocal Agreement by presenting to all 12 municipal boards and councils in Wake County. Subsequent meetings and presentations are planned for Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 38

38 2010 Board of Commissioners Goals Accomplishments Various groups in the region address transportation issues of which Wake County participates: Triangle Mobility Action Partnership (Tri Map): The Regional Transportation Alliance facilitates an ongoing forum to help increase understanding and build consensus among elected officials, transportation partners and the regional business community regarding key mobility challenges. Land Use/Community Infrastructure/Development (LUCID): Organized by Triangle Transit and TJCOG, the goal of LUCID is to sustain and provide guidance about the connection between transit infrastructure investments and land use planning activities. Intergovernmental Meeting: Triangle Transit hosts a bimonthly meeting of elected officials and local government managers from Wake, Durham, and Orange Counties. Discussion is focused on the regional and County transit plans. III. Highlighting the County s Role in Environmental Stewardship and Green Initiatives 6. Work with the Sustainability Task Force as they focus on: a. Water Resources Conservation and Management b. Solid Waste Reduction and Management c. Energy Conservation and Management The Commissioners appointed the Task Force in December 2009, and the first meeting of the Task Force was conducted on January 21, The Task Force has met every month during the past year, with the exception of August 2010 (summer break) and December 2010 (inclement weather). The Task Force has received presentations from subject matter experts on water, energy, and waste, and is currently working to develop recommendations. The current plan is for the Task Force to complete their work in May 2011 and for the report (Environmental Stewardship Agenda) to be submitted to the Board of Commissioners in June Implement an agreement to sell the landfill gas at the South Wake Landfill. In December 2010, the Board of Commissioners authorized staff to enter into final negotiations with Ingenco to serve as the Project Developer for a landfill gas beneficial reuse project at the South Wake Landfill. The beneficial reuse project will be to generate electricity for sale to Progress Energy. Contract negotiations should be completed February 2011, and Commercial Operations for the landfill gas beneficial reuse project is estimated to be August Work with the City of Raleigh, Durham County and the City of Durham on a coordinated response to the Falls Lake Rules and participate in the rule making process. During fiscal year 2010, Wake County staff worked with staff from other jurisdictions in the Falls Lake watershed to review and discuss the requirements and alternatives for the Falls Lake Rules. The result of that effort was a document titled Consensus Principles to Guide Falls Lake Nutrient Management Strategy (Consensus Principles). The Wake County Board of Commissioners adopted the Consensus Principles on March 1, The governing boards of the following 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 39

39 2010 Board of Commissioners Goals Accomplishments jurisdictions also adopted the Consensus Principles: Granville County, Person County, Orange County, Durham County, the City of Durham, and the City of Raleigh. The Falls Lake Rules were adopted by the Environmental Management Commission on November 18, 2010, and the effective date of the Falls Lake Rules was January 15, The objective for the Falls Lake Rules is to reduce nutrient (phosphorus and nitrogen) loadings to Falls Lake to reduce chlorophyll a concentrations in an attempt to reduce the potential for nuisance algae blooms. As the rules have just been adopted, staff is working to identify the resource requirements necessary to implement the Falls Lake Rules, and those will be presented to the Board of Commissioners through the annual budget preparation process. IV. Continuing Goals from Prior Years 9. Improve the Mental Health System in Wake County with the opening of the continuum of care facilities and securing partners to operate some or all of the facilities in the most costeffective manner. The Board approved a plan to add staffing to continue County operated outpatient crisis services and inpatient substance abuse treatment services while seeking private partners to operate the 32 new beds. The WakeBrook Campus is opened for business as of January The ground floor of the twostory Crisis Stabilization Center which includes Crisis and Assessment Services (CAS) and the Wake Transition Team, is now operational for consumers. As always, Crisis and Assessment Services is open 24 hours a day, seven days a week, 365 days a year, for consumers with behavioral health crisis needs. The Wake Transition Team is seeing clients by appointment. Inpatient substance abuse services will move to The Recovery Center, a 16 bed voluntary substance abuse inpatient rehabilitation facility in March. After consulting with the Division of Health Services Regulation, the Wake County LME determined that separate vendors would be necessary for the two 16 bed crisis/detox units in order to meet licensure and regulatory requirements. The Wake LME issued a Request for Proposals (RFP) and received bids from two prospective vendors. The review panel, which includes County staff, Consumer and Family Advisory Committee and Human Services Board representation, is conducting site visits and interviews with respondents and plans to make a recommendation for vendor selection within the next month. It is anticipated that one vendor will begin operation in July, followed by opening of the second unit in January, Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 40

40 2010 Board of Commissioners Goals Accomplishments 10. Human Capital: a. Implement plans to deliver Human Services that will enable citizens to achieve and/or maintain middle class status, ultimately reducing dependence on government support. b. Work with the Human Services Board to identify departmental priorities for resource allocation and budget recommendations. Wake County Human Services is engaged in a new approach to providing human services that involves transforming the social safety net to a path to self sufficiency. This year successful community partnerships and full engagement throughout the agency has resulted in new venues for clients to pursue a path toward upward mobility. Human Capital Development Service Models: Primary Leadership and Implementation Within WCHS a. Within Child Welfare, Workfirst & JobLink, staff initiated an Employment Pipeline for families receiving treatment services from Child Welfare. Through this effort, Wake County is participating in a pilot with the Center for the Study of Social Policy who is seeking to create more effective strategies to support the economic success of families engaged in the Child Welfare system. New communication systems have been developed for staff who received training in January, The project is now enrolling families from the North Central Zone. b. Within Economic Services, new marketing strategies, educational sessions, self service tool kits, and life planning seminars invite consumers on a daily basis to think differently, reclaim their dreams and take responsibility for transforming their lives. These strategies were put in place in December of c. The Regional Centers led the development of a human capital registry through the implementation of a pilot tracking system, called elogic. To date, more than 300 individuals have been assessed and 125 have received some follow up services. In addition, the Eastern Regional Center is providing group coaching utilizing community volunteers who provide the coaching resource for Middle Class Express (MCE) participants from the Eastern Region. d. Within Public Health and at both the Milbrook and Sunnybrook Centers, staff are partnering in the development of Human Capital Wellness Clubs that will introduce families to life planning and eight track educational opportunities. This effort, called Club CHOICE: Choosing Healthy Options in a Challenging Economy, will engage youth through partnerships with 4 H and several faith partners and adults through club membership beginning in February and March of Human Capital Development Models in the Community: Partnered Leadership & Implementation a. The Children Youth and Families division in partnership with the Wake County Public School System created FASST: Families and Students Succeeding Together, a new model to deliver comprehensive human capital development and literacy for youth and families 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 41

41 2010 Board of Commissioners Goals Accomplishments at East Milbrook Middle School, Poe Elementary, and Creech Road Elementary. To date, more than 90 individuals have completed personalized family resource guides and written life goals; youth have written and presented their own literary works. Programming began in October and will continue through April, b. In February 2011, Wake County Human Services will begin a new partnership with Step Up Ministries to enhance human capital development opportunities for the alumni from their JOBS and Life Skills Programs. Initially, life coaches from Cooperative Extension and the Human Services Academy will work directly with consumers and then will provide training for Step Up staff and community volunteers. Step Up is also partnering with Wake County 4 H Youth Development to create a complimentary youth development approach for children whose parents are involved in their HCD efforts. c. Within Child Welfare, WCHS continues to engage foster youth graduating from high school as Fostering Bright Future Scholars. If selected, these young people receive life coaching from 4 H staff, financial support and mentoring from Bright Futures Board members, tutoring and academic support from Wake Tech and financial literacy training from Triangle Family Services. d. Two new large collaborations have begun within the County to address human capital development for youth and young adults. i. The Partnership for Excellence in Youth Development engaged more than 40 vital community partners across sectors in the development of a strategic plan, were invited by the John Rex Endowment to apply for infrastructure and submitted a proposal to support new systems for referral, engagement, capacity building and results measurement across the County. Funding decisions will be made public in April, ii. Under the joint leadership of North Carolina State University and Wake Tech, the Raleigh College and Community Collaborative received a $100,000 planning grant and an invitation to submit to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation a $1.5 million dollar proposal to double the number of low income individuals, 16 26, living in Raleigh who successfully complete a post secondary credential and obtain employment. The Implementation Proposal is due April 16, Preliminary Results: The second benchmark report providing baseline and outcome data about participants engaged in the MCE prototype was developed and shared with the Board, County leadership, and partners and staff supporting the effort. Results indicated that 78% of active MCE participants engaged 90 days or more either maintained or experienced progress on the employment continuum. In addition, the HCD Cabinet implemented tremendous process improvements to address coaching capacity, develop new venues, communication tools, and the need for registry tracking participant progress across multiple projects for five years. Lastly, the agency s internal capacity for staff development and educational capacity for consumers is being leveraged, 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 42

42 2010 Board of Commissioners Goals Accomplishments enhanced and delivered through the Human Services Academy (HSA) which has now delivered more than 6794 units of training. These new Human Capital building tools were developed utilizing existing resources within Human Services and partnerships with community organizations 11. Education: Work with the Wake County Public Schools and Wake Technical Community College to develop operating budget strategies that do not require increasing the property tax rate, yet reflects education as a priority in Wake County. Both the Wake County Public School System and Wake Technical Community College remained important priorities for County funding in FY2011. Wake County Public School System budget request was fully funded. On going operations at Wake Tech were funded at prior year levels. No increase to the County s property tax was needed to fund either system. 12. Continue to maintain the County s AAA credit rating with all three rating agencies. The County issued bonds a total of four times in Of the four sales, three included the issuance of taxable bonds provided by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) which will save the County $18.6 million in debt service costs as compared to the cost of debt had the County only issued tax exempt general obligation bonds. The bonds issued by the County are detailed below: In March, the County issued $125.8 million in fixed rate general obligation bonds. Of that amount, the County issued $ million of taxable Recovery Zone Economic Development Bonds (RZEDBs), which permitted the County to issue taxable bonds of which the federal government provided interest subsidy totaling 45 percent of the interest costs. With the interest subsidy provided by the federal government, the County saved approximately $9.2 million over the payback period compared to the debt service cost had the County not took advantage of the ARRA authorized RZEDBs. The March issue supported $100 million of WCPSS projects, including the construction of Walnut Creek Elementary opening in 2011 and the renovation of Wilburn Elementary. The $25.8 million provided funds to Wake Technical Community College for several projects including the construction of Building E on the North Campus and the Phase II renovation of the Public Safety Center. In April, the County successfully refunded $412.9 million of general obligation bonds comprised of maturities from the 2003A Public Improvement, 2003B Criminal Justice, 2004 Public Improvement, 2005 School, 2007 Public Improvement, and 2009A Public Improvement Bonds. The savings had a net present value of $18.76 million or 4.54 percent of the $412.9 million principal refunded and will be recognized over 16 years Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 43

43 2010 Board of Commissioners Goals Accomplishments In May, the County issued $34.9 million of Qualified School Construction Bonds (QSCBs). Qualified School Construction Bonds (QSCBs) are taxable bonds for which the federal government reimburses the County 100 percent of the interest cost. By issuing QSCBs as compared to tax exempt general obligation bonds, the County saved over $16 million in debt service costs over the life of the issue. The proceeds of the sale are being used towards the construction of Rolesville Middle School. Finally, Wake County competitively bid and sold $36.0 million in fixed rate general obligation bonds in July to support Wake Technical Community College building projects. Of the $36 million, the County used a mixed structure allowing the County to award $ million in tax exempt public improvement bonds, $9.475 million of taxable Recovery Zone Economic Development bonds (45% interest subsidy), and $7.580 million in taxable Build America bonds (35% interest subsidy). The County saved $3.38 million over the life of the bonds by using a mixed structure of tax exempt general obligation bonds and taxable Recovery Zone Economic Development Bonds and Build America Bonds. For all bond issuances, prior to the sale, Fitch, Moody s and Standard and Poor s each confirmed the County s triple A bond rating which allows the County to receive lower interest rates on debt issued for capital expenditures. Rating agency reports issued by Fitch, Moody s, and Standard and Poor s indicated the rating agencies based their decisions on factors including the County s excellent financial management, diverse economic base and sound financial position. Wake County has received the highest possible rating from Moody s since 1973; Standard & Poor s, 1983; and Fitch, Enhanced Delivery of Systems for Fire/Rescue and EMS: Initiate discussions with contracted service providers to identify consolidation opportunities in fire/rescue services and EMS delivery and identify other strategies that will yield more effective and efficient fire/rescue and emergency medical services. The Department of Emergency Medical Services is completing a year long review of our system design, with particular attention to the financial aspects associated with the design. The goal of the review is to ensure our current delivery model is the most economically responsible model for service delivery. Our work began with the Public Safety Committee meeting in June of Based upon requests made by members of the Committee, the budget manual for all EMS agencies has been modified to ensure all expenses are being appropriately captured and reported. All agency chiefs have approved the new budget book and submitted budgets based thereupon. We also have clarified the Medicare rules governing revenue and have written legal opinions to guide the County regarding any modifications to revenue distribution that appear necessary. Finally, as directed by the Public Safety Committee, we are now examining multiple models of service delivery to determine the most cost effective model. We will present these models to the Public Safety Committee during February Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 44

44 2010 Board of Commissioners Goals Accomplishments The Department of EMS continues to look for opportunities for consolidation and improved efficiencies of service delivery. Changes have occurred in service delivery in three areas of the County over the past year. First, the responsibilities of EMS in the Garner area underwent a transition from Garner EMS and Rescue to the Wake County EMS Division. This has been a successful transition with no interruptions in service. Wake EMS units are co located with the Garner Fire Department in mutually beneficial manner that also greatly lowers costs for EMS deployment in the region. Second, the provision of EMS in the Town of Holly Springs was transferred from Holly Springs Fire Department to the Wake EMS Division. As with the Garner area, there has been no interruption in service and the EMS unit is co located with the Holly Springs Fire Department to create the most efficient deployment model possible. Finally, with the retirement of long time Apex EMS Chief Nicky Winstead, the responsibilities of EMS delivery in the Apex area were assumed by the Apex Fire Department, now the Apex Fire and EMS Department. With this assumption, the Town of Apex has assumed financial responsibility for the provision of EMS. There is an excellent working relationship between the Wake County Department of EMS and the Apex Fire and EMS Department. Construction of the new Fire/EMS station in the southeastern area of Wake County is complete. The new station is a partnership between Wake County, the Town of Garner, the Garner Volunteer Fire Department and Wake County Emergency Medical Services. The new fire station allowed the Board of Commissioners to approve expanded boundaries for the Garner Suburban Fire Insurance District. Department of Fire and Emergency Management staff continued discussions with the City of Raleigh and Town of Cary Fire Departments to evaluate the feasibility of replacing fire protection service from four County funded fire stations with fire protection service from the municipal fire departments. The discussions are part of the Department s work to evaluate the Fire Commission s criteria for replacing fire protection service in unincorporated areas of the County. The four fire stations under consideration are Bay Leaf Fire Station #3, Falls Fire Station, Wake New Hope Fire Station #1, and Western Wake Fire Station #1. The Fire Commission adopted a plan to allocate six (6) new firefighter positions approved in the Fire Protection Service Tax District s FY 11 budget. The plan allocated the positions based on a needs assessment conducted by the Fire Commission's Staffing Committee. The plan distributed the new positions to three fire departments: Three (3) FTE's to Wake New Hope Fire Department, three (3) FTE's to Bay Leaf Fire Department and three (3) FTE's to Fairview Fire Department Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 45

45 2010 Board of Commissioners Goals Accomplishments 14. Urban County Leadership: Continue to take a leadership role among the largest urbanizing counties to discuss common issues and to promote a common legislative agenda. In 2010, develop a State Budget Strategy working with the North Carolina Association of County Commissioners and the NC League of Municipalities in order to prevent the State from shifting responsibilities to local governments during the short legislative session. Wake County developed a short session legislative agenda in April The agenda included a top priority goal to preserve and protect local and state shared revenues. Wake County worked closely with the North Carolina Association of County Commissioners, the North Carolina League of Municipalities, the Big Ten Cities and Counties in North Carolina and Wake County municipalities to minimize the impact of state budget decisions on Wake County. In August 2010, Commissioner Bryan was sworn in as the President of the North Carolina Association of County Commissioners. Other Commissioners and staff continue to support NCACC and NACO through involvement on Committees and in advisory capacities. In September and December, the Board of Commissioners approved statewide legislative goals for In January 2011, the Board finalized their agenda and combined local and statewide goals with a continued goal to protect local revenues and prevent the shift of state responsibilities to local governments. 15. Develop a three year plan to facilitate policy deliberations for the multiple and competing priorities. Staff has worked on a number of projects and initiatives including: Wake County Transit Plan Updated Wake Technical Community College Master Plan Completing the existing Capital Plan for the Wake County Public School System and discussions about future capital needs Mental Health Continuum of Care Hammond Road Detention Center Expansion New Justice Center Neuse River Trail Partnership A Three Year Plan has not been formulated due to the complexity and variability of the first three items above. Once details and schedules of those items are formulated, a Three Year Plan for policy deliberations will be completed Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 46

46 2010 Board of Commissioner Goals Accomplishments Three Focus Areas for 2010 The Economy and Jobs Transit Environmental Stewardship 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 47 1

47 Continued Goals from Prior Years Mental Health Building Human Capital Education Priorities AAA Credit Rating Fire/EMS Service Enhancements Urban County Leadership Three Year Plan The Economy and Jobs 1. Develop and approve a budget for FY2011 which maintains the property tax rate at 53.4 cents. Adopted balanced budget of $951 million while maintaining perperty tax rate at 53.4 cents 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 48 2

48 The Economy and Jobs 2. Work with Wake Tech, Wake Economic Development Program and existing businesses to attract new jobs, retain jobs and provide training to individuals in transition. Wake Economic Development 2010 accomplishments: Announced 47 new and expanding companies, 2,883 new jobs and $335 million in investment Wake Tech served over 70,000 students and despite budget reduction, continued focuse on priorities of: Promote economic growth and development Maximize use of existing facilities and develop new facilities Locate new facilities near population base Ensure Wake citizens have knowledge and skills required to compete and be successful in global economy The Economy and Jobs 3. Evaluate County s Economic Development policies to promote creation and expansion of small businesses. Partnered with Raleigh Chamber of Commerce Review of services to small business Active recruitment of businesses Developed Small Business Resource Guide 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 49 3

49 Transit 4. Work with Triangle Transit to develop transit plan that is financially sound and will be supported by ILA with each municipality. Met with each municipal Board in Wake County to discuss transit planning approach Met monthly with Wake County municipal managers to discuss transit planning progress Transit Plan initiated will include: Bus Plan to identify short and long range improvements needed to region s bus service Rail Plan to study regional rail initiatives Transit 5. Work with Triangle Transit, Wake municipalities and business community to consider ½ cent sales tax referendum no sooner than Fall Worked closely with Triangle Transit, CAMPO, municipalities and business community towards consideration of sales tax referendum Draft ILA developed Finalization of Transit Plan expected Spring/Summer 2011 No referendum expected in Fall Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 50 4

50 Environmental Stewardship 6. Work with Sustainability Task Force: a. Water Resources Conservation and Management b. Solid Waste Reduction and Management c. Energy Conservation and Management Task Force began work January 2010 Received presentations from subject matter experts on water, energy and waste Developing recommendations completion expected May/June 2011 Environmental Stewardship 7. Implement Agreement to sell landfill gas at South Wake Landfill. Negotiating agreement with Ingenco Beneficial reuse project will generate electricity for sale to Progress Energy Completion of project negotiations expected Feb 2011 Operations expected to begin August Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 51 5

51 Environmental Stewardship 8. Work with City of Raleigh, Durham County and City of Durham on coordinated response to Falls Lake Rules and participate in rulemaking process. March 2010 Board approved Consensus Principles November 2010 Environmental Management Commission adopted Falls Lake Rules January 2011 Effective date of Rules Continuing Goal: Mental Health 9. Improve mental health system in Wake County with opening of Continuum of Care facilities and secure partners to operate some or all of the facility in most cost effective manner. WakeBrook Campus construction completed Dec 2010 Crisis and Assessment Service and Wake Transition Team now operational in new facility Competitive bidding process will begin in 2011 Crisis/detox units will be served by private vendor beginning in July 2011 and January Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 52 6

52 Continuing Goal: Human Capital 10.a. Implement plans to deliver Human Services that will enable citizens to achieve and/or maintain middle class status, ultimately reducing dependence on government support. Developed models within WCHS Ex: Employment Pipeline initiated for families receiving services from Child Welfare; and Regional Centers led human capital registry Developed models partnering with Community Ex: WCPSS partnership for Families and Students Succeeding Together; and Partnership for Excellence in Youth Development Continuing Goal: Human Capital 10.b. Work with Human Services Board to identify departmental priorities for resource allocation and budget recommendations. Developed new Human Capital building tools utilizing existing resources within Human Services and partnerships with community organizations 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 53 7

53 Continuing Goal: Education 11.Work with WCPSS and Wake Tech to develop operating budget strategies that do not require increasing property tax rate, yet reflect education as top priority. No increase to County s property tax was needed to fund either system. More info coming from Nicole Continuing Goal: AAA Bond Rating 12.Continue to maintain the County s AAA credit rating with all three rating agencies. AAA rating affirmed by all three rating agencies More info coming from Nicole 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 54 8

54 Continuing Goal: Fire/Rescue and EMS 13. Enhance delivery of systems for Fire/Rescue and EMS: Initiate discussions with contracted service providers to identify consolidation opportunities and identify other strategies that will yield more effective and efficient services. EMS completing review of system design Service delivery models to be presented to Public Safety Committee Feb 2011 Completed consolidations with Garner and Holly Springs EMS Garner Fire/EMS station complete Continued discussions with Raleigh and Cary to replace fire protection service in unincorporated areas of County 6 new firefighter positions approved in Fire Protection Service Tax District s FY11 budget Continuing Goal: Urban County Leadership 14.Continue to take leadership role among largest urbanizing counties to discuss common issues and promote common legislative agenda. Develop a State Budget Strategy working with NCACC and NCLM to prevent the State from shifting responsibilities during the short legislative session. Partnered with NCACC, NCLM, and Big 10 leadership to minimize impact of State FY11 budget decisions Support Commissioner Bryan as President of NCACC Developed 2011 Long Session Legislative Goals 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 55 9

55 Continuing Goal: Three-Year Plan 15.Develop a three year plan to facilitate policy deliberations for the multiple and competing priorities. Worked on key projects and initiatives: Transit Plan Wake Tech Master Plan WCPSS Capital Needs Three Year Plan not yet developed due to complexity of projects and initiatives 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 56 10

56 OPERATING BUDGET OVERIVEW Board of Commissioners Retreat February 4, Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 57

57 Topics for Discussion A quick reminder of FY 2010 results Update of FY 2011 budget estimates Expectations for FY 2012 Future activities 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 58

58 Looking Back $984.4 Budget Changes Since FY 2009 (in millions) $971.2 $953.6 $947.1 $951.2? FY 2009 Adopted July 2008 FY 2009 Amended February 2009 FY 2010 Adopted July 2009 FY 2010 Amended April 2010 FY 2011 Adopted July 2010 FY 2011 Amended January 2011 FY 2012 Adopted July Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 59

59 FY 2010 RESULTS 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 60

60 FY 2010 Results County General Fund Original Final Budget Budget Actual Variance Revenues and Transfers In $ 953,600,000 $ 944,473,711 $ 927,453,576 $ 17,020,135 Expenditures and transfers out (953,600,000) (947,238,627) (931,288,065) (15,950,562) Fund Balance Appropriated (2,764,916) ** Actual Revenues less than Expenditures (3,834,489) Fund balance at the beginnning of the year 156,084,815 Fund balance at the end of the year $152,250,326 ** Budgeted use of fund balance represents encumbrances carried forward from FY Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 61

61 FY 2010 Results WCPSS General Fund FY 2010 WCPSS Fund 2 (Local) Budgeted Actual Variance Revenues: County (1) $ 311,373,608 $ 311,373,607 $ (1) Other 9,010,686 6,873,402 (2,137,284) Total $ 320,384,294 $ 318,247,009 $ (2,137,285) Expenditures $ 329,629,982 $ 305,393,717 (2) $ 24,236,265 Increase in (Use of) Fund $ (9,245,688) $ 12,853,292 $ 22,098,980 (1) The FY 2010 County appropriation totaled $313,503,224 of which $311,373,608 was for current expense and $2,129,616 was for capital outlay which is reported as part of WCPSS capital outlay fund. (2) Actual Expenditures were less than County funding 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 62

62 FY 2011 BUDGET ESTIMATES 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 63

63 FY 2011 General Fund Revenues FY11 Adopted Budget FY11 Amended FY11 Revenue EOY Projection FY11 Projection less Amended Taxes Property Taxes 632,638, ,638, ,624,300 (13,700) Sales Tax 113,634, ,634, ,000,000 (5,634,000) Lease/Rental Vehicle Tax 2,500,000 2,500,000 2,500,000 - Payment in Lieu of Taxes 1,230,421 1,230,421 1,230,421 - Real Property Transfer Tax 5,300,000 5,300,000 4,500,000 (800,000) Taxes Total 755,302, ,302, ,854,721 (6,447,700) Federal 15,161,217 15,452,717 14,601,719 (850,998) State 105,878, ,876, ,765,780 (1,110,648) Local 7,105,500 7,105,500 7,094,340 (11,160) Charges For Services 61,123,578 61,123,578 60,230,587 (892,991) Licenses & Permits 2,959,464 2,959,464 3,015,797 56,333 Interest Income 58,954 58,954 52,265 (6,689) Miscellaneous 318, , , ,263 Other Financing Sources 2,000,000 3,321,298 3,321,298 (0) Transfers 1,312,000 1,312,000 1,349,000 37,000 TOTAL 951,220, ,830, ,726,104 (9,104,590) 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 64

64 FY 2011 Revenues Property taxes are on track to meet budget Sales taxes will likely fall short of budget but will be higher than FY 2010 Monitoring funding changes from the State and will reduce expenditures to offset any revenue losses Will manage expenditures to ensure that amount of fund balance used does not exceed amount budgeted of $3 million 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 65

65 FY 2011 Expenditures Hiring freeze will continue approximately $3 million in anticipated savings Will require a hold back of $6 million in nonsalary expenditures No formal mid year reductions Departments have been asked to spend conservatively Based on past expenditure history, think this is achievable 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 66

66 OUTLOOK FOR FY Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 67

67 FY 2012 General Fund Revenues FY 2011 Adopted Budget FY 2011 Amended Budget FY 2011 Estimate FY 2012 Budget (base) Variance: FY12 - FY11 Estimate Taxes Property Taxes 632,638, ,638, ,624, ,332,000 3,707,700 Sales Tax 113,634, ,634, ,000, ,634,000 3,634,000 Lease/Rental Vehicle Tax 2,500,000 2,500,000 2,500,000 2,500,000 - Payment in Lieu of Taxes 1,230,421 1,230,421 1,230,421 1,230,421 - Real Property Transfer Tax 5,300,000 5,300,000 4,500,000 4,500,000 - Subtotal 755,302, ,302, ,854, ,196,421 7,341,700 Federal 15,161,217 15,452,717 14,601,719 15,366, ,773 State 105,878, ,876, ,765, ,129,882 (5,635,898) Local 7,105,500 7,105,500 7,094,340 4,093,100 (3,001,240) Charges For Services 61,123,578 61,123,578 60,230,587 60,276,162 45,575 Licenses & Permits 2,959,464 2,959,464 3,015,797 3,047,164 31,367 Interest Income 58,954 58,954 52,265 58,754 6,489 Miscellaneous 318, , , ,834 (44,763) Other Financing Sources 2,000,000 3,321,298 3,321,298 - (3,321,298) Transfers 1,312,000 1,312,000 1,349,000 1,383,000 34,000 TOTAL 951,220, ,830, ,726, ,946,809 (3,779,295) 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 68

68 Property Tax Projections Valuation Tax Rate Tax Levy Valuation Tax Rate Tax Levy Valuation Tax Rate Tax Levy Valuation Change over FY11 Budget Real Property 103,093,250, ,517, ,067,246, ,379, ,875,000, ,692, % Personal Property 6,125,000, ,707,500 6,530,240, ,121,023 6,150,000, ,921, % Subtotal 109,218,250, ,225, ,597,486, ,500, ,025,000, ,613, % Public Service 3,050,000, ,287,000 2,837,941, ,154,600 2,875,000, ,352, % Prior Vehicle 2,590,000, ,100,000 2,570,000, ,928,400 2,650,000, ,271, % Vehicle Value 4,300,000, ,200,000 4,405,000, ,675,700 4,505,000, ,196, % Subtotal Vehicles 6,890,000,000 37,300,000 6,975,000,000 37,604,100 7,155,000,000 38,467,700 TOTAL 119,158,250, ,812, ,410,427, ,258, ,055,000, ,433, % Valuation per Budget 119,158,250, ,410,427, ,055,000,000 Late List Late List 1,000,000 Late List 1,262,180 Late List 1,000,000 Rebates Base Rebates (5,500,000) Base Rebates (6,365,000) Base Rebates (4,750,000) Other Impacts (A) (700,000) Other Impacts (35,000) Other Impacts (35,000) ADJUSTED LEVY 631,612, ,120, ,648,700 Collection Rate Collection Rate 98.50% Collection Rate 98.50% Collection Rate 98.50% TAX AT COLLECTION RATE 622,138, ,624, ,083,970 Delinquencies/Adjustments 10,499,731 9,000,118 8,248,031 TOTAL 632,638, ,624, ,332, Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 69

69 Starting Point for FY 2012 Budget: FY 2010 Non-Salary Actuals General Fund actual expenditures have been less than the amended budgets by significant amounts and we have continued operations FY 2012 s starting base was lower than the FY 2011 budget resulting in a lower percentage requested for reduction options to close the budget gap (in 000's) Amended Budget Actual Budget less Actual Amended Budget Actual Budget less Actual Amended Budget Actual Budget less Actual Revenues Total Expenditures 935, ,488 17, , ,162 29, , ,758 19,481 Non-Salary Total 717, ,815 18, , ,824 15, , ,495 13,237 Salary / Benefits Total 218, ,730-1, , , , , Expenditures Total NET EXPENDITURE 935, ,545 17, , ,108 16, , ,257 12,982 - (57) 57 - (12,946) 12,946 - (6,499) 6, Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 70

70 FY 2012 Base Revenue / Expenditure Gap Revenues 940,946,809 Department Expenditures 400,141,672 Surplus (Gap) 540,805,137 WCPSS 313,503,224 Wake Tech 15,991,050 Transfers 207,591,000 Subtotal 537,085,274 Surplus (Gap) 3,719, Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 71

71 FY 2012 Choices and Tradeoffs Base Revenue Projection 940,946,809 Base Expenditures 937,226,946 Surplus (Gap) 3,719,863 Known Increases (amounts still preliminary) Retirement 856,400 New Jail Operations - Partial Year 5,000,000 Open the Second Floor of Wake Brook 1,600,000 Subtotal Known Increases 7,456,400 Surplus (Gap) (3,736,537) Other Initiatives Health Insurance Increase 800,000 2% Pay Increase 4,000,000 Subtotal Other Initiatives 4,800,000 Surplus (Gap) (8,536,537) 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 72

72 FY 2012 Department Budget Balancing Options DEPARTMENT BASE REVENUE ENHANCEMENTS NET REDUCTIONS TOTAL REDUCTIONS REDUCTION AS A % OF THE TARGET BASE FTEs REDUCED Board Of Commissioners 452,616-5,319 5, % - Board Of Elections 2,457, , , % - CCBI 4,189, , , % (2.0) Community Services 25,312, , , % - County Attorney 1,415, % - County Manager 1,426,772-43,976 43, % (1.0) EMS 19,401,569 1, , , % (12.0) Environmental Services 7,803, , , , % - Facilities Design & Construction 1,124,426-33,733 33, % - Finance 2,877,633 77,800 20,000 97, % - Fire/Emergency Management 1,891,172-55,353 55, % (1.0) GSA 25,165,433-1,004,276 1,004, % - Human Resources 1,893,098-66,624 66, % (1.0) Human Services County Funding 70,034, ,633 3,004,093 3,432, % (19.1) All Other Funding 142,580,095 Total 212,614,188 Information Services 11,827, , , % (1.0) Medical Examiner 204, % - Non-Departmental 11,350, , , % - Public Safety Communications 1,094,353-9,100 9, % - Register of Deeds 2,577,666-61,914 61, % (1.0) Revenue 5,028, , , , % - Sheriff 60,033,253-1,810,742 1,810, % (39.0) TOTAL 400,141,672 1,054,301 8,329,035 9,383, % (77.1) County Funds Only 3.6% 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 73

73 Position History (all funds) FY 2009 Adopted FY 2010 Adopted FY 2011 Adopted Variance FY09 FY11 General Government Board of Commissioners County Manager (3.000) County Attorney Board of Elections (0.850) Budget and Management Services (9.000) Facilities Design and Construction (1.500) Finance (0.250) Human Resources Information Services (6.000) Register of Deeds (4.000) Revenue (1.000) Soil and Water Conservation District (2.000) Community Services (30.000) Environmental Services (8.000) General Services Administration (2.000) Human Services 1, , , (93.518) Emergency Medical Services Fire and Emergency Management (4.500) City County Bureau of Identification (2.000) Sheriff (6.000) Capital Area Workforce Development TOTAL 3, , , ( ) 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 74

74 FUTURE ACTIVITIES 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 75

75 The Process through June Date March 14 February April May 16 June 6 June 13 June 20 Milestone Department budget meetings with Manager's Office begin; aim to complete by April 15 Board of Commissioners budget updates at Work Sessions Recommended Budget presented to Board of Commissioners Public Hearings on Recommended Budget Board of Commissioners Work Session on Recommended Budget Board of Commissioners consideration of the FY 2012 operating and FY CIP budgets 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 76

76 DEPARTMENT SUBMITTED REDUCTION OPTIONS - SUMMARY DEPARTMENT BASE REVENUE ENHANCEMENTS NET REDUCTIONS TOTAL REDUCTIONS REDUCTION AS A % OF THE TARGET BASE FTEs REDUCED Board Of Commissioners 452,616-5,319 5, % - Board Of Elections 2,457, , , % - CCBI 4,189, , , % (2.0) Community Services 25,312, , , % - County Attorney 1,415, % - County Manager 1,426,772-43,976 43, % (1.0) EMS 19,401,569 1, , , % (12.0) Environmental Services 7,803, , , , % - Facilities Design & Construction 1,124,426-33,733 33, % - Finance 2,877,633 77,800 20,000 97, % - Fire/Emergency Management 1,891,172-55,353 55, % (1.0) GSA 25,165,433-1,004,276 1,004, % - Human Resources 1,893,098-66,624 66, % (1.0) Human Services County Funding 70,034, ,633 3,004,093 3,432, % (19.1) All Other Funding 142,580,095 Total 212,614,188 Information Services 11,827, , , % (1.0) Medical Examiner 204, % - Non-Departmental 11,350, , , % - Public Safety Communications 1,094,353-9,100 9, % - Register of Deeds 2,577,666-61,914 61, % (1.0) Revenue 5,028, , , , % - Sheriff 60,033,253-1,810,742 1,810, % (39.0) TOTAL 400,141,672 1,054,301 8,329,035 9,383, % (77.1) County Funds Only 3.6% 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 77

77 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 78

78 DEPARTMENT SUBMITTED REDUCTION OPTIONS BY DEPARTMENT Department Budget Request Code Budget Request Name Impact Code Brief Description Reduction Priority FTEs Expenditures Revenues 10 - Board Of Commissioners 10 - Board Of Commissioners 10 - Board Of Commissioners 10 - Board Of Commissioners Board Of Commissioners 5770 Eliminating cellular communication device Significant 5777 Reducing printing costs Significant Eliminate cellular communication device for County clerk Reducing printing costs for BOC agenda packets , Reducing postage costs Moderate Reducing postage costs Reducing food, memberships/subscription costs Minimum Reducing food, memberships and subscription costs for BOC 4-1,919-5, County Manager County Manager County Manager County Manager 6119 County Manager Volunteer Awards Base Reduction County Manager's Base Line Item Reductions PAO's Line Item Adjustments and Video Restructure Reclass Down Vacant Administrative Coordinator II Position Minimal Minimal Minimal Minimal Provide for reception for volunteer award winners -- not all volunteers. Reduce line amounts to contribute toward 3% target for closing the gap. Reduce line amounts to contribute toward 3% target for closing the gap and convert a position to a contract. Reclass down the vacant Administrative Services Coordinator position. 1-3, , , , , Facilities Design & Construction 20 - Facilities Design & Construction 20 - Facilities Design & Construction 20 - Facilities Design & Construction 20 - Facilities Design & Construction 5966 Reduce Supplies Minimal Reduce Computer and Office Supplies 1-1, Reduce Training Minimal Reduce Training for Department Staff 2-1, Facilities Design & Construction Reduce Mileage Reimbursement 5969 Reduce memberships Minimal 5958 FY2012 Reduction Minimal Minimal Reduce daily mileage reimbursement for staff Reduce professional memberships for department staff This reduction is to defer hiring Project Manager (Engineer) for six months of FY ,000-33, Finance Department 5821 Finance Department Financial Services - Internal Audit Moderate Vacant Internal Audit position being downgraded to Senior Accountant classification , , Human Resources 6135 Human Resources Administration - Staff Reorganization Moderate Reduction will reorganize existing Human Resources staff and eliminate one full-time HR Training Manager position ,624 Human Resources , Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 79

79 DEPARTMENT SUBMITTED REDUCTION OPTIONS BY DEPARTMENT Department Budget Request Code Budget Request Name Impact Code Brief Description Reduction Priority FTEs Expenditures Revenues 26 - Information Services Information Services Information Services 5749 Information Services Information Services - Reduce License Maintenance Minimal Information Services - Reduce Training Budget Information Services - Reduce Staffing Moderate Significant Reduction in IS department license and maintenance budget to meet 3% reduction goal Reduction in IS department training budget to meet 3% reduction goal Reduction in IS department staffing budget to meet 3% reduction goal 1-226, , , , Register Of Deeds 5757 Reduce Office Supplies Moderate Reduce office supplies budget 1-31, Register Of Deeds 5632 Eliminate One Filled Register Significant of Deeds Position Eliminate one filled Register of Deeds position ,600 Register Of Deeds , Revenue Department 5631 Revenue Department Revenue Division - Auditing Services Minimum Discontinue the use of contracted agencies for auditing services that discover unreported taxable property. Reduction may lead to less property tax revenue if the discovery rate decreases , , Non-departmental Non-departmental 6002 Non-departmental - Chamber of Commerce and Edge 3 Program Non-departmental - Consulting Services Minimum Minimum Staff proposes a reduction of 3%. If reduced, the total amount will apply to the Edge 3 program only. Staff proposes a reduction of $50,000 (33%) for consulting services. 4-10, , Non-departmental 6008 Non-departmental - Criminal Justice Programs Moderate Staff proposes a reduction of 3%. Programs include pretrial electronic monitoring, the day reporting center, ReEntry programs, and the "Free the People" program. 6-40, Non-departmental Non-departmental 6005 Non-departmental - Wake Soil & Water Conservation District Non-departmental - Women's Commission Significant Minimum Reductions to various district operating costs including: vehicle, supplies, cellular communications, conferences, and memberships. Staff recommends a reduction of 3% for the Women's Commission. 5-12, Non-departmental 6000 Public Agencies - County funding to Not-for-profits agencies Minimum Staff proposes a reduction of 3% for not-forprofit agencies that receive public tax support. Agencies include: The Healing Place, Marbles Kids Museum, United Arts Council, and others. 3-65,647 Non-departmental -192, Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 80

80 DEPARTMENT SUBMITTED REDUCTION OPTIONS BY DEPARTMENT Department Budget Request Code Budget Request Name Impact Code Brief Description Reduction Priority FTEs Expenditures Revenues 40 - Community Services 6107 Community Services Libraries - Reduce the Library Book Budget Significant Reduce the Library Book Budget 1-759, , Environmental Services 6151 Environmental Services - Air Quality Minimal This is a tax payer funded subsidy for County employees to encourage the use of public transportation versus personal vehicles to travel to work. Staff recommendation is to eliminate this program. 1-22, Environmental Services 6152 Environmental Services - Water Quality Minimal Staff recommendation is to eliminate property tax funding for this program so that the full cost of the program can be allocated to water utility customers that benefit directly from the data collection and analysis resulting from this program. 2-14, Environmental Services 6240 Environmental Services - Water Quality Minimal The Upper Neuse River Basin Association is evaluating reorganization opportunities to serve as central forum for implementing the Falls Lake Rule requirements. Staff recommendation is to eliminate funding for the UNRBA for FY2012 & re-evaluate in FY , Environmental Services 42 - Environmental Services Environmental Services - Onsite & Technical Assistance Environmental Services - Onsite & Technical Assistance Minimal Significant County staff member retired and department will eliminate this position (salary, benefits, vehicle, cell phone). County staff member retired and department will eliminate this position (salary, benefits, vehicle, cell phone). 4-5, , Environmental Services 6154 Environmental Services - Animal Shelter Significant Web, television, radio promotions and marketing have proven effective for increasing the number of visitors to the Animal Center. Staff recommendation is to reduce funding for advertising and preserve funding available for direct animal care and welfare. 6-15,417 Environmental Services -133, General Services Administration 44 - General Services Administration GSA Dept.- Alcohol Treatment Center Reductions Annualized GSA Department- Cost Savings & Reductions Minimum Annualized reductions for repairs, maintenance, janitorial services, utilities and security for ATC 1-172,673 Minimum Department Cost Savings & Reductions 2-454, Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 81

81 DEPARTMENT SUBMITTED REDUCTION OPTIONS BY DEPARTMENT Department Budget Request Code Budget Request Name Impact Code Brief Description Reduction Priority FTEs Expenditures Revenues 44 - General Services Administration 6090 General Services Administration GSA Department - Facility Management Cost Reductions Moderate GSA Department - Facility Management Cost Reductions 3-377,461-1,004, Human Services Human Services Human Services Human Services Human Services Human Services Human Services Human Services Human Services Human Services Human Services 6198 Admin & OperationCounty Match to Office of Juvenile Justice Admin & OperationFed HOME Investment Prtnrshps Grant Match Admin & OperationHousing & Support Srvs Contracts Behavioral HealthClose Inner City Mental Health Clinic Moderate Minimum Elimination of County match to Office of Juvenile Justice for state allocation. Eliminate the Federal HOME Investment Partnerships Grant Matching Funds , ,000 Moderate Reduction in funding for Housing contracts ,156 Significant Child WelfareFoster Care Supplement Client Assistance Moderate Child Youth & FamilyEast Wake Youth Initiative Contract Children Youth & FamilyChild Daycare Eliminate 6 FTEs Children Youth & FamilyFuquay Youth Initiative Contract Children Youth & FamilyReady to Learn Centers Program Children Youth & FamilySafeChild & Motheread Contracts Children Youth & FamilyUrban Ministries of WC Contract Significant Moderate Significant Significant Significant Significant Close Inner City Mental Health Clinic and eliminate 2.30FTEs. Reduce Foster Care Supplement client assistance funds The contract with the Poe Center for Health Education to support special programming, a collaborative effort with the Zebulon Community Center, will be eliminated effective July 1, 2011 Eliminate (6) vacant FTEs in Child Daycare Administration The contract with the Fuquay Youth Initiative to support middle school afterschool programming in collaboration with the Fuquay United Methodist Church and FYI Board will be eliminated effective July 1, 2011 Eliminate the Ready to Learn Center Program to include 8.50 FTEs and associated operating costs Eliminate contract with Safe Child and with MotherRead who provide parent education and support services to families referred from Child Welfare. Eliminate contract with Urban Ministries to operate the Open Door Clinic , , , , , , , , Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 82

82 DEPARTMENT SUBMITTED REDUCTION OPTIONS BY DEPARTMENT Department Budget Request Code Budget Request Name Impact Code Brief Description Reduction Priority FTEs Expenditures Revenues 46 - Human Services 6212 Children Youth & FamilyWIC Operating Costs Moderate Reduce County funds supporting Women, Infants and Children (WIC)programs 8-63, Human Services Human Services 6227 Health ClinicsEliminate Two Positions Local Managing EntityLME Medicaid Contract Providers Moderate Minimum Eliminate two vacant positions (1.30FTE) in Health Clinics Division All targeted case management provider agencies are required to be directly enrolled to provide Medicaid reimbursable Targeted Case Management for Individuals with Developmental Disabilities , ,497,000-4,497, Human Services Human Services Human Services Human Services Human Services Human Services 6191 Human Services Public HealthEliminate 1 position Public HealthMedical and Operating Supplies Social ServicesCounty General Assistance Social ServicesEnergy Program Reduce Temporary Salaries Social ServicesProFamilia Operating Costs Social ServicesTANF Working For Kids Operating Costs Moderate Eliminate 1 FTE in Public Health ,864 Minimum Reduce Public Health operating expenses 5-626,757 Minimum Minimum Minimum Minimum The Crisis Intervention/Emergency programs have narrowed the scope of services offered. It no longer supports several non-mandated services such as rent, water, gas other than heating, casket and prescription assistance, thus reducing the need for the assistance. The State funds for the Energy Assistance are used to offset the regular employees administrative cost and the management of the Low Income Energy Assistance. Eliminate Operating Costs related to the ProFamilia Program Eliminate operating costs related to the TANF Working For Kids program , , , , ,501,093-4,497, City-County Bureau of Identification 49 - City-County Bureau of Identification City-County Bureau of Identification Investigations - Agent Reduction Investigations - Agent Reduction Significant Significant Eliminate one Crime Scene Agent position which equates 6.3% of Crime Scene staff(reduction one of two). Eliminate one Crime Scene Agent position which equates 6.3% of Crime Scene staff (reduction two of two) , , , Sheriff 5950 Law Enforcement - School Resource Officers Significant This reduction request is to eliminate 25 Deputy Sheriff positions in the School Resource Officer program ,398, , Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 83

83 DEPARTMENT SUBMITTED REDUCTION OPTIONS BY DEPARTMENT Department Budget Request Code Budget Request Name Impact Code Brief Description Reduction Priority FTEs Expenditures Revenues 50 - Sheriff 5952 Law Enforcement - STOP Team Significant 50 - Sheriff 5951 Detention - ICE Program Significant Sheriff This reduction requests eliminates 3 positions on the STOP Team. This reduction request is to eliminate 11 positions in the ICE program , , , ,074, , Fire-Emergency Management 6054 Fire-Emergency Management Fire Administration & Emergency Management - Reduce Staffing Significant Reduce one full-time Deputy Fire Marshal position in Fire Services and elimination of parttime salaries for Emergency Management programs ,887-17, ,887-17, Emergency Medical Services 5998 EMS - Wake County EMS Division Moderate Reduction of ambulance service by 12-hours through the conversion of an ambulance staffed on a 24-hour basis to 12-hours only , Emergency Medical Services 6011 EMS - Wake County EMS Division Significant Reduction of ambulance service by 12-hours through the conversion of an ambulance staffed on a 24-hour basis to 12-hours only , Emergency Medical Services 6019 EMS - Wake County EMS Division Significant Reduction of ambulance service by 12-hours through the elimination of the second half-of a 24-hr unit already converted to 12-hours , Emergency Medical Services 6109 EMS - Wake County EMS Division Significant Reduction of ambulance service by 12-hours through the conversion of an ambulance staffed on a 24-hour basis to 12-hours only ,240 Emergency Medical Services , Emergency Communications Emergency Communications 6138 Emergency Communications - Eliminate Reverse 911 Data Update Minimum Reduction in Communications Budget in an effort to meet 3% reduction goal 1-9,100-9,100 Grand Total ,107,083-4,778,048 Net Reductions -8,329, Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 84

84 Board of Commissioners Retreat 2011 Capital Finance & CIP Update 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 85

85 Presentation Overview Update and Review of County s Long Term Capital Financing Plan Review of November 2010 Scenarios Presented to BOC & Actions Taken Since November Review of Assumptions in Financial Model Review of Various Scenarios Brief Discussion of County s CIP Future Building Programs 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 86

86 Capital and Debt Management Policies Seven year capital plan developed within context of debt policies and targets necessary to maintain AAA bond rating: Plan funded through dedicated revenue sources Target 80% Debt Funding; 20% cash 19% Minimum Fund Balance in the Debt Service Fund Debt repayment schedule that meets standards for AAA rated counties 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 87

87 Since November 2010 (Capital Finance Update at Board Work Session) Received responses to Liquidity RFP; BOC entered into agreement for liquidity and remarketing for $200 million variable rate bonds with Wells Fargo Continued to Review General Obligation Bond Scenarios Variable Rate Debt Cost of Borrowing Remains Consistently under 1% (interest and fees) 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 88

88 BASELINE MODEL 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 89

89 November 2010 Scenario 1 Presented to BOC Lower Property Tax Growth Lower Sales Tax Growth Lower Interest Assumption for 2011 GO Sale based on market conditions Lowered interest rate from 5% to 4% Lower Variable Rate Assumption Changed variable rate yield from 2.6% (before fees) to an average of 1% (before fees) for With fees average is 1.57% Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 90

90 November 2010 Scenario 1 Presented to BOC Bond Sale Assumptions Bond Issues Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Total Libraries $ 2,000,000 $ 6,100,000 $ 8,800,000 $ 11,000,000 $ 16,800,000 $ 44,700,000 Open Space $ 16,000,000 $ 15,000,000 $ $ $ $ 31,000,000 Comm College $ $ $ $ $ $ Schools - G.O. $ 125,000,000 $ 78,590,000 $ $ $ $ 203,590,000 Total $ 143,000,000 $ 99,690,000 $ 8,800,000 $ 11,000,000 $ 16,800,000 $ 279,290,000 Fund Balance Low of 28.4% in Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 91

91 Capital Plan Assumptions Nov 2010 GROWTH RATES: Total Property Tax Rate Property Tax Rate for Capital Property Tax Valuation Growth Actual 0.25% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% Sales tax annual growth rate Actual 0.00% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% Investment rate 1.00% 1.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% Tax-exempt variable interest rate 1.00% 0.30% 0.30% 0.75% 1.55% 2.05% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70% in Bond Variable Rate Fees Fees 0.70% 0.70% 0.70% 0.70% 0.70% 0.60% 0.60% 0.60% 0.60% 0.60% Total All-In Variable Rate Costs 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.45% 2.25% 2.75% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 92

92 FEBRUARY 2011 BASELINE: Updated for New Liquidity and Remarketing and Current Market Conditions 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 93

93 February 2011 Baseline: Reflects $200 million Liquidity and Remarketing Agreement with Wells Fargo Variable Rate Assumption Lowered in February 2011 Baseline to Reflect New Agreement Investment Rate Lowered from 3% to 2% in Years with Lower Variable Rate Assumption Increase growth in property tax revenue for FY 12 (increased to 0.75% growth vs 0% growth as stated in November Scenario 1) 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 94

94 February 2011 Baseline Update Model for Current Market Updated for Current Market Since November, the yield on AAA GO bonds has steadily increased. Yield on "AAA" GO Bond /2/2009 2/2/2009 3/2/2009 4/2/2009 5/2/2009 6/2/2009 7/2/2009 8/2/2009 9/2/ /2/ /2/ /2/2009 1/2/2010 2/2/2010 3/2/2010 4/2/2010 5/2/2010 6/2/2010 7/2/2010 8/2/2010 9/2/ /2/ /2/ /2/2010 1/2/ Year Maturity 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 95

95 February 2011 Baseline: Current Market Change from 4% assumption at November work session to 5% in February Baseline Property Tax Change from 0% growth for FY12 from November work session to 0.75% growth for FY 12 in February Baseline No change in Bond Sales and Sales Tax assumptions 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 96

96 November 2010 Baseline Compared to February 2011 Baseline Debt Service Fund Fund Balance (in 000s) BEFORE 11/10 152, , , ,180 90,171 83,170 65,918 63,717 70,847 91, ,641 AFTER 02/2011 Baseline 152, , , ,098 86,518 79,129 62,148 60,355 68,036 88, ,383 CHANGE - - (2,058) (3,083) (3,654) (4,041) (3,770) (3,362) (2,812) (2,112) (1,258) Fund Balance as a Percent of Next Year Debt Service (in 000s) BEFORE 11/ % 68.3% 58.5% 47.7% 39.7% 34.4% 28.4% 28.4% 32.4% 45.7% 80.2% AFTER 02/2011 Baseline 74.7% 68.0% 57.5% 46.2% 37.9% 32.6% 26.6% 26.8% 31.0% 44.5% 79.1% CHANGE 0.0% -0.3% -1.1% -1.5% -1.8% -1.8% -1.7% -1.6% -1.4% -1.2% -1.1% 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 97

97 RECOMMENDED GO SALES 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 98

98 February 2011: Revised Bond Sale Scenario Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Total Libraries $ $ 6,100,000 $ 10,800,000 $ 11,000,000 $ 16,800,000 $ 44,700,000 Open Space $ 10,000,000 $ 11,000,000 $ 10,000,000 $ $ $ 31,000,000 Comm College $ $ $ $ $ $ Schools - G.O. $ 106,800,000 $ 96,790,000 $ $ $ $ 203,590,000 Total $ 116,800,000 $ 113,890,000 $ 20,800,000 $ 11,000,000 $ 16,800,000 $ 279,290,000 Decreases WCPSS from $125 million to $106.8 million. $10 million for Open Space (Neuse River Trail Only). Defers Libraries Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 99

99 WCPSS Request (January 4, 2011) Board of Education Approved Spending Request Major Projects Note Rolesville High School $ 63.9 $ Other Projects 2012 includes funds from Life Cycle Replcements sale of admin. Buildings Land includes funds from 9.2 sale of admin. buildings Start Up Design Equipment Replacement 0.8 Environmental and ADA 2.7 Mobile Modular 4.4 Program Management, Assessments, Permits Contingency & Reserve $ $ Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 100

100 Open Space $10 million for Neuse River Trail 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 101

101 February 2011 Baseline Compared to February 2011 New GO Sale Scenarios Fund Balance (in 000s) BEFORE 02/2011 Baseline 152, , , ,209 85,206 77,375 59,911 57,606 64,744 85, ,908 AFTER 02/2011 Rec. Sales 152, , , ,139 90,692 83,406 66,566 64,912 72,729 93, ,339 CHANGE - (93) 3,122 4,930 5,485 6,031 6,655 7,306 7,984 8,693 9,432 Fund Balance as a Percent of Next Year Debt Service (in 000s) BEFORE 02/2011 Baseline 74.7% 68.0% 57.3% 45.8% 37.4% 31.9% 25.7% 25.5% 29.5% 42.6% 76.5% AFTER 02/2011 Rec. Sales 74.7% 68.8% 58.9% 48.0% 39.8% 34.3% 28.5% 28.8% 33.1% 46.9% 81.9% CHANGE 0.0% 0.8% 1.6% 2.1% 2.4% 2.5% 2.9% 3.2% 3.6% 4.3% 5.4% 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 102

102 Recommended Next Steps February 21, 2011: Request BOC to adopt issue resolution for March 2011 GO Sale for $106.8 million WCPSS and $10 million Open Space bonds March 15, 2011: Sell bonds for WCPSS and Open Space Spring 2011: Continue Discussions about Future Building Programs and Impact on Financial Model June 2011: Adopt FY CIP Fall 2011: Review $124 million variable rate debt with liquidity expiring Spring 2012 Winter 2012: Evaluate ability to sell remaining bonds for schools, libraries, and open space. Spring 2012: Sell remaining WCPSS GO bonds, Open Space bonds, and potential library bonds 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 103

103 SUMMARY OF MODEL SCENARIOS (BOC Retreat February 4, 2011) 1. November 2010 Scenario 1: Updated for Lower Tax Growth, November Market, Lower Variable Rate Assumption, and Revision to Libraries and Open Space Sales 2. February 2011 Baseline: Updated for $200 million variable rate liquidity and remarketing approved by BOC 1/18/11, Investment Rate, Current Market Conditions, and Revised Property Tax Projection for FY12 3. February 2011 Recommended Sales: February 2011 Baseline with revised sales for WCPSS, Libraries, and Open Space 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 105

104 SUMMARY OF MODEL SCENARIOS 1. November 2010 Scenario 1 Scenario Description: Reflects $4 million "second time" capital funds redirected to operating budget Variable Rate Assumption Lowered through 2015 Updated for FY 2010 Actual Results Modified Libraries and Open Space Sales Shows Wake Tech Sale as Actual 45%, Estimate of FY 2011 Sale Lowered to 4% Property and Sales Tax Growth Lowered Assumptions Property Tax Growth Actual 0.25% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.5% 3.5% Sales Tax Growth Actual 0.0% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% Variable Rate Interest (w/o fees) Actual 0.3% 0.3% 0.8% 1.6% 2.1% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% Bond Issues Mar 09 Mar 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Total Libraries 2,000,000 6,100,000 8,800,000 11,000,000 16,800,000 44,700,000 Open Space 16,000,000 15,000,000 31,000,000 Comm College 35,000,000 25,800,000 36,000,000 96,800,000 Schools - G.O. 100,000, ,000, ,000,000 78,590, ,590,000 Schools - QSCBs 34,910,000 34,910,000 Take out BAN 300,000, ,000,000 Total 435,000, ,710,000 36,000, ,000,000 99,690,000 8,800,000 11,000,000 16,800, ,000,000 Criminal Justice Debt Issues Jul 09 Jan Apr Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr 15 Total Hammond Road LOBs 154,620, ,620,000 Justice Center 160,000, ,000,000 Total 154,620, ,000, ,620,000 Capital Projects UNCOMMITTED FUNDS Balance in Reserve for Future Projects 4,835,057 8,404,057 3,887,057 9,458,057 22,460,057 26,768,057 39,539,057 52,307,057 Percent Debt Funded Total Target: 75% to 85% debt over the 7 year capital plan County, WCPSS, WTCC 58.4% 82% 79% 35% 24% 37% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Target: Percentage does not fall below 19% in any year Debt Service Fund Balance Percentage 74.7% 68.3% 58.5% 47.7% 39.7% 34.4% 28.4% 28.4% 32.4% 45.7% 80.2% 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 106

105 1. November 2010 Scenario 1 AD VALOREM TAXES Assumptions: Tax rate (cents) Tax Base Valuation 118,845, ,158, ,158, ,349, ,756, ,439, ,232, ,790, ,508, ,391, ,445, ,675, ,089, ,692, ,491, ,493, ,706, ,135, ,790, ,678, ,806,989 Annual growth rate Actual Actual 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% Levy after collection rate 619, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,402 1,031,405 1,067,633 1,105,130 Revenue per penny 11,607 11,641 11,668 11,785 12,022 12,385 12,759 13,208 13,672 14,153 14,651 15,166 15,700 16,252 16,823 17,414 18,026 18,659 19,315 19,993 20,695 Capital tax rate Ad valorem tax - capital program 182, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,158 Percent change - ad valorem tax 1.8% 0.3% 0.2% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% Ad valorem tax allocation: Debt Service Fund 129, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,128 School Capital Projects Fund 15,000 7, Transfer to Wake Tech 10,690 5, County j Capital Projects y Fund 26,000 27,315 27,756 28,732 29,242 30,690 31,869 32,988 34,147 35,347 36,558 34,528 35,741 36,995 38,294 39,638 41,030 41,030 41,030 41,030 41,030 Projects (4,000) (4,000) - (1) (1) (5,000) (5,000) (5,000) Total $177,564 $179,464 $183,886 $185,736 $189,473 $195,190 $201,078 $208,154 $215,477 $223,057 $230,902 $239,022 $247,426 $256,124 $265,127 $274,444 $284,088 $294,069 $304,400 $315,092 $326,158 Assumptions: Sales tax annual growth rate From AActual 0.00% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% Investment rate From A 1.00% 1.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% Tax-exempt variable interest rate (w/ fees) From A 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.45% 2.25% 2.75% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% DEBT SERVICE REVENUES Ad valorem tax From A 129, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,128 Sales Tax: Article 40 & 42 26,721 26,721 26,988 27,393 27,941 28,639 29,355 30,089 30,842 31,613 32,403 33,213 34,043 34,894 35,767 36,661 37,577 38,517 39,480 40,467 41,478 Transfer from Major Facilities Fund Transfer from Fire Tax (self -financing) Transfer in from Fire Tax (bank debt) Lottery Proceeds 12,819 16,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 School Construction Premium (BAN or Bond) 10,277 10,140 Detention Center Savings 10,549 WCPSS RZEDBs federal subsidy Wake Tech financing 45% Wake Tech financing 35% QSCB Subsidy 1,877 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 Interest income - WCPSS, WTCC, County bond proceeds 1,036 1, Interest income - LOBs proceeds 1,687 1,332 (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) Interest income - General Fund 3,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 Interest income - County Capital Projects (Cash) Plus interest income - Debt Service Fund 8,508 1,523 4,627 4,157 3,305 2,705 2,495 1,978 1,912 2,125 2,732 4,159 6,743 9,815 13,496 17,821 22,731 29,748 38,408 47,751 57,775 Total Debt Service Revenues 200, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,904 DEBT SERVICE EXPENDITURES Fixed Rate Debt Service (DS) 172, , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,745 99,549 49,551 27,611 26,537 25,172 17,785 Variable Rate Debt Service 1,004 3,240 3,249 4,698 7,290 8,910 20,666 25,279 68,542 77,534 58,333 20,767 24,184 23,491 22,798 22,105 16, Total G.O. Debt Service 173, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,654 65,991 27,611 26,537 25,172 17,785 Transfer to Justice Center Capital 10,549 May 10 Refunding Savings 3,517 (3,518) (2,041) (2,042) (2,042) (2,040) (2,038) (2,038) (2,040) (2,040) (2,043) (2,041) (2,042) (2,038) (2,042) Debt service - Justice Center - 6,648 6,723 12,678 12,529 12,350 12,172 11,993 11,780 11,902 11,309 11,011 10,713 10,415 10,118 9,820 9,522 9,224 8,927 8,629 8,333 Debt service - Jail 5,767 7,336 13,521 13,270 13,014 12,763 12,484 12,218 11,944 11,638 11,336 11,028 10,722 10,426 10,131 9,852 9,543 9,234 8,925 8,615 8,345 Five County Stadium financing agreement Fire truck debt service QSCBs ($34,910,000) - Principal Only QSCBs Interest Subsidized QZAB debt service Bond fees (included in DS beg 2012) Contract Services Salary, Benefits and Admin Support Total Debt Service Expenditures 199, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,865 86,549 49,564 44,707 42,734 34,781 Revenues in excess (less than) expenditures 1,494 1,983 (15,698) (28,371) (20,009) (7,001) (17,252) (2,201) 7,130 20,216 47,578 86, , , , , , , , , ,124 Adjust to actual Fund Balance - beginning of year 150, , , , ,180 90,171 83,170 65,918 63,717 70,847 91, , , , , , , ,613 1,280,251 1,591,715 1,925,828 Fund Balance - end of year 152, , , ,180 90,171 83,170 65,918 63,717 70,847 91, , , , , , , ,613 1,280,251 1,591,715 1,925,828 2,289,952 Ending balance as % of next year's G.O. DS 74.7% 68.3% 58.5% 47.7% 39.7% 34.4% 28.4% 28.4% 32.4% 45.7% 80.2% 134.4% 206.7% 301.8% 416.7% 878.7% % % % % #DIV/0! 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 107

106 SUMMARY OF MODEL SCENARIOS 2. February 2011 Baseline: November Scenario 1 Updated for Approved $200 million liquidity and remarketing, investment rate, current market, updated FY12 property tax Scenario Description: Reflects $4 million "second time" capital funds redirected to operating budget Variable Rate Assumption Reflects New Liquidity and Remarketing Fees Updated for FY 2010 Actual Results Investment Rate Lowered to 2% for FY 12 FY15. Shows Wake Tech Sale as Actual 45%, Interest Rate Estimate for FY 2011 Sale Increased to 5% Property and Sales Tax Growth Lowered Updated FY12 Property Tax Base to $120 billion, a 0.75% increase over budget Assumptions Property Tax Growth Actual 0.250% 0.750% 1.000% 2.000% 3.000% 3.000% 3.500% 3.500% Sales Tax Growth Actual 0.000% 1.000% 1.500% 2.000% 2.500% 2.500% 2.500% 2.500% Variable Rate Interest (w/o fees) Actual 0.300% 0.300% 0.750% 1.550% 2.050% 2.700% 2.700% 2.700% Bond Issues Mar 09 Mar 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Total Libraries 2,000,000 6,100,000 8,800,000 11,000,000 16,800,000 44,700,000 Open Space 16,000,000 15,000,000 31,000,000 Comm College 35,000,000 25,800,000 36,000,000 96,800,000 Schools - G.O. 100,000, ,000, ,000,000 78,590, ,590,000 Schools - QSCBs 34,910,000 34,910,000 Take out BAN 300,000, ,000,000 Total 435,000, ,710,000 36,000, ,000,000 99,690,000 8,800,000 11,000,000 16,800, ,000,000 Criminal Justice Debt Issues Jul 09 Jan Apr Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr 15 Total Hammond Road LOBs 154,620, ,620,000 Justice Center 160,000, ,000,000 Total 154,620, ,000, ,620,000 Capital Projects UNCOMMITTED FUNDS Balance in Reserve for Future Projects 4,835,057 8,404,057 3,887,057 9,458,057 22,460,057 26,768,057 39,539,057 52,307,057 Percent Debt Funded Total Target: 75% to 85% debt over the 7 year capital plan County, WCPSS, WTCC 58% 82% 72% 40% 25% 37% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Target: Percentage does not fall below 19% in any year Debt Service Fund Balance Percentage 74.7% 68.0% 57.5% 46.2% 37.9% 32.6% 26.6% 26.8% 31.0% 44.5% 79.1% 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 108

107 2. February 2011 Baseline: November Scenario 1 with Updated Liquidity, Investment Rate, Current Market, and FY 12 Property Tax AD VALOREM TAXES Assumptions: Tax rate (cents) Tax Base Valuation $118,845,629 $119,158,250 $120,055,000 $121,255,550 $123,680,661 $127,391,082 $131,212,814 $135,805,262 $140,558,446 $145,477,991 $150,569,720 $155,839,661 $161,294,049 $166,939,342 $172,782,218 $178,829,596 $185,088,632 $191,566,734 $198,271,569 $205,211,074 $212,393,461 Annual growth rate Actual Actual 0.75% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% Levy after collection rate 619, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,854 1,003,928 1,039,195 1,075,696 1,113,475 Revenue per penny 11,607 11,641 11,762 11,875 12,113 12,479 12,855 13,308 13,776 14,260 14,762 15,281 15,818 16,374 16,950 17,546 18,162 18,800 19,461 20,144 20,852 Capital tax rate Ad valorem tax - capital program 182, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,621 Percent change - ad valorem tax 1.75% 0.29% 1.04% 0.96% 2.01% 3.02% 3.02% 3.52% 3.52% 3.52% 3.52% 3.52% 3.52% 3.52% 3.51% 3.51% 3.51% 3.51% 3.51% 3.51% 3.51% Ad valorem tax allocation: Debt Service Fund 129, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,591 School Capital Projects Fund 15,000 7, Transfer to Wake Tech 10,690 5, County j Capital Projects y Fund 26,000 27,315 27,756 28,732 29,242 25,690 26,869 27,988 34,147 35,347 36,558 34,528 35,741 36,995 38,294 39,638 41,030 41,030 41,030 41,030 41,030 Projects (4,000) (4,000) - (1) (1) Total $177,564 $179,464 $185,367 $187,142 $190,907 $196,667 $202,599 $209,729 $217,107 $224,744 $232,648 $240,829 $249,296 $258,060 $267,130 $276,518 $286,234 $296,290 $306,699 $317,471 $328,621 Assumptions: Sales tax annual growth rate From AActual 0.00% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% Investment rate From A 1.00% 1.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% Tax-exempt variable interest rate (w/ fees) From A 1.00% 1.00% 0.87% 1.30% 2.10% 2.65% 3.25% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% DEBT SERVICE REVENUES Ad valorem tax From A 129, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,591 Sales Tax: Article 40 & 42 26,721 26,721 26,988 27,393 27,941 28,639 29,355 30,089 30,842 31,613 32,403 33,213 34,043 34,894 35,767 36,661 37,577 38,517 39,480 40,467 41,478 Transfer from Major Facilities Fund Transfer from Fire Tax (self -financincg) Transfer in from Fire Tax (bank debt) Lottery Proceeds 12,819 16,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 School Construction Premium (BAN or Bond) 10,277 10,140 Detention Center Savings 10,549 WCPSS RZEDBs federal subsidy Wake Tech financing 45% Wake Tech financing 35% QSCB Subsidy 1,877 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 Interest income - WCPSS, WTCC, County bond proceeds 1,036 1, Interest income - LOBs proceeds 1, (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) Interest income - General Fund 3,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 Interest income - County Capital Projects (Cash) Plus interest income - Debt Service Fund 8,508 1,523 3,085 2,730 2,142 1,730 2,374 1,864 1,811 2,041 2,669 4,121 6,735 9,843 13,565 17,936 22,899 29,974 38,698 48,113 58,214 Total Debt Service Revenues 200, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,806 DEBT SERVICE EXPENDITURES Fixed Rate Debt Service (DS) 172, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,000 49,928 27,912 26,763 25,323 17,860 Variable Rate Debt Service 1,004 3,240 2,827 4,212 6,804 8,586 20,666 25,279 68,542 77,534 58,333 20,767 24,184 23,491 22,798 22,105 16, Total G.O. Debt Service 173, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,106 66,367 27,912 26,763 25,323 17,860 Transfer to Justice Center Capital 10,549 May 10 Refunding Savings 3,517 (3,518) (2,041) (2,042) (2,042) (2,040) (2,038) (2,038) (2,040) (2,040) (2,043) (2,041) (2,042) (2,038) (2,042) Debt service - Justice Center - 6,648 6,723 12,678 12,529 12,350 12,172 11,993 11,780 11,902 11,309 11,011 10,713 10,415 10,118 9,820 9,522 9,224 8,927 8,629 8,333 Debt service - Jail 5,767 7,336 13,521 13,270 13,014 12,763 12,484 12,218 11,944 11,638 11,336 11,028 10,722 10,426 10,131 9,852 9,543 9,234 8,925 8,615 8,345 Five County Stadium financing agreement Fire truck debt service QSCBs ($34,910,000) - Principal Only 2,054 2,012 1,971 1,930 1,889 1,848 1,807 1,766 1,725 1,684 1,643 1,602 1,561 1,520 1,479 1,437 1,396 QSCBs Interest Subsidized 1,877 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 QZAB debt service Bond fees (included in DS beg 2012) Contract Services Salary, Benefits and Admin Support Total Debt Service Expenditures 199, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,317 86,926 49,865 44,933 42,885 34,856 Revenues in excess (less than) expenditures 1,494 1,983 (17,757) (29,395) (20,580) (7,389) (16,981) (1,793) 7,681 20,915 48,432 87, , , , , , , , , ,950 Adjust to actual Fund Balance - beginning of year 150, , , , ,098 86,518 79,129 62,148 60,355 68,036 88, , , , , , , ,140 1,289,924 1,603,752 1,940,455 Fund Balance - end of year 152, , , ,098 86,518 79,129 62,148 60,355 68,036 88, , , , , , , ,140 1,289,924 1,603,752 1,940,455 2,307,405 Ending balance as % of next year's G.O. DS 74.7% 68.0% 57.5% 46.2% 37.9% 32.6% 26.6% 26.8% 31.0% 44.5% 79.1% 133.7% 206.5% 302.3% 418.1% 881.3% % % % % #DIV/0! 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 109

108 SUMMARY OF MODEL SCENARIOS 3. February Recommended Sale: $106.8 for WCPSS and $10 million for Open Space Scenario Description: Reflects $4 million "second time" capital funds redirected to operating budget Variable Rate Assumption Reflects New Liquidity and Remarketing Fees Updated for FY 2010 Actual Results Investment Rate Lowered to 2% for FY 12 FY15. Shows Wake Tech Sale as Actual 45%, Interest Rate Estimate for FY 2011 Sale Increased to 5% Property and Sales Tax Growth Lowered Updated FY12 Property Tax Base to $120 billion, a.75% increase over budget Only sell $106.8 M for WCPSS and $10 million for Open Space in FY11 Assumptions Property Tax Growth Actual 0.250% 0.750% 1.000% 2.000% 3.000% 3.000% 3.500% 3.500% Sales Tax Growth Actual 0.000% 1.000% 1.500% 2.000% 2.500% 2.500% 2.500% 2.500% Variable Rate Interest (w/o fees) Actual 0.300% 0.300% 0.750% 1.550% 2.050% 2.700% 2.700% 2.700% Bond Issues Mar 09 Mar 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Total Libraries 6,100,000 10,800,000 11,000,000 16,800,000 44,700,000 Open Space 10,000,000 11,000,000 10,000,000 31,000,000 Comm College 35,000,000 25,800,000 36,000,000 96,800,000 Schools - G.O. 100,000, ,000, ,800,000 96,790, ,590,000 Schools - QSCBs 34,910,000 34,910,000 Take out BAN 300,000, ,000,000 Total 435,000, ,710,000 36,000, ,800, ,890,000 20,800,000 11,000,000 16,800, ,000,000 Criminal Justice Debt Issues Jul 09 Jan Apr Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr 15 Total Hammond Road LOBs 154,620, ,620,000 Justice Center 160,000, ,000,000 Total 154,620, ,000, ,620,000 Capital Projects UNCOMMITTED FUNDS Balance in Reserve for Future Projects 4,835,057 8,404,057 3,887,057 9,458,057 22,460,057 26,768,057 39,539,057 52,307,057 Percent Debt Funded Total Target: 75% to 85% debt over the 7 year capital plan County, WCPSS, WTCC 58% 82% 72% 40% 25% 37% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Target: Percentage does not fall below 19% in any year Debt Service Fund Balance Percentage 74.7% 68.8% 58.9% 48.0% 39.8% 34.3% 28.5% 28.8% 33.1% 46.9% 81.9% 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 110

109 3. February Recommended Sale: $106.8 M for WCPSS and $10 M for Open Space AD VALOREM TAXES Assumptions: Tax rate (cents) Tax Base Valuation $118,845,629 $119,158,250 $120,055,000 $121,255,550 $123,680,661 $127,391,082 $131,212,814 $135,805,262 $140,558,446 $145,477,991 $150,569,720 $155,839,661 $161,294,049 $166,939,342 $172,782,218 $178,829,596 $185,088,632 $191,566,734 $198,271,569 $205,211,074 $212,393,461 Annual growth rate Actual Actual 0.75% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% Levy after collection rate 619, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,854 1,003,928 1,039,195 1,075,696 1,113,475 Revenue per penny 11,607 11,641 11,762 11,875 12,113 12,479 12,855 13,308 13,776 14,260 14,762 15,281 15,818 16,374 16,950 17,546 18,162 18,800 19,461 20,144 20,852 Capital tax rate Ad valorem tax - capital program 182, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,621 Percent change - ad valorem tax 1.75% 0.29% 1.04% 0.96% 2.01% 3.02% 3.02% 3.52% 3.52% 3.52% 3.52% 3.52% 3.52% 3.52% 3.51% 3.51% 3.51% 3.51% 3.51% 3.51% 3.51% Ad valorem tax allocation: Debt Service Fund 129, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,591 School Capital Projects Fund 15,000 7, Transfer to Wake Tech 10,690 5, County j Capital Projects y Fund 26,000 27,315 27,756 28,732 29,242 25,690 26,869 27,988 34,147 35,347 36,558 34,528 35,741 36,995 38,294 39,638 41,030 41,030 41,030 41,030 41,030 Projects (4,000) (4,000) - (1) (1) Total $177,564 $179,464 $185,367 $187,142 $190,907 $196,667 $202,599 $209,729 $217,107 $224,744 $232,648 $240,829 $249,296 $258,060 $267,130 $276,518 $286,234 $296,290 $306,699 $317,471 $328,621 Assumptions: Sales tax annual growth rate From AActual 0.00% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% Investment rate From A 1.00% 1.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% Tax-exempt variable interest rate (w/ fees) From A 1.00% 1.00% 0.87% 1.30% 2.10% 2.65% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% DEBT SERVICE REVENUES Ad valorem tax From A 129, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,591 Sales Tax: Article 40 & 42 26,721 26,721 26,988 27,393 27,941 28,639 29,355 30,089 30,842 31,613 32,403 33,213 34,043 34,894 35,767 36,661 37,577 38,517 39,480 40,467 41,478 Transfer from Major Facilities Fund Transfer from Fire Tax (self -financincg) Transfer in from Fire Tax (bank debt) Lottery Proceeds 12,819 16,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 School Construction Premium (BAN or Bond) 10,277 10,140 Detention Center Savings 10,549 WCPSS RZEDBs federal subsidy Wake Tech financing 45% Wake Tech financing 35% QSCB Subsidy 1,877 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 Interest income - WCPSS, WTCC, County bond proceeds 943 1, Interest income - LOBs proceeds 1, (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) (0) Interest income - General Fund 3,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 4,000 Interest income - County Capital Projects (Cash) Plus interest income - Debt Service Fund 8,508 1,523 3,083 2,783 2,223 1,814 2,502 1,997 1,947 2,182 2,813 4,270 6,888 9,999 13,725 18,100 23,066 30,144 38,871 48,289 58,393 Total Debt Service Revenues 200, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,986 DEBT SERVICE EXPENDITURES Fixed Rate Debt Service (DS) 172, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,050 49,984 27,975 26,833 25,400 17,943 Variable Rate Debt Service 1,004 3,240 2,827 4,212 6,804 8,586 20,666 25,279 68,542 77,534 58,333 20,767 24,184 23,491 22,798 22,105 16, Total G.O. Debt Service 173, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,155 66,423 27,975 26,833 25,400 17,943 Transfer to Justice Center Capital 10,549 May 10 Refunding Savings 3,517 (3,518) (2,041) (2,042) (2,042) (2,040) (2,038) (2,038) (2,040) (2,040) (2,043) (2,041) (2,042) (2,038) (2,042) Debt service - Justice Center - 6,648 6,723 12,678 12,529 12,350 12,172 11,993 11,780 11,902 11,309 11,011 10,713 10,415 10,118 9,820 9,522 9,224 8,927 8,629 8,333 Debt service - Jail 5,767 7,336 13,521 13,270 13,014 12,763 12,484 12,218 11,944 11,638 11,336 11,028 10,722 10,426 10,131 9,852 9,543 9,234 8,925 8,615 8,345 Five County Stadium financing agreement Fire truck debt service QSCBs ($34,910,000) - Principal Only 2,054 2,012 1,971 1,930 1,889 1,848 1,807 1,766 1,725 1,684 1,643 1,602 1,561 1,520 1,479 1,437 1,396 QSCBs Interest Subsidized 1,877 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 1,780 QZAB debt service Bond fees (included in DS beg 2012) 4,318 3,444 Contract Services Salary, Benefits and Admin Support Total Debt Service Expenditures 199, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,366 86,982 49,928 45,003 42,962 34,939 Revenues in excess (less than) expenditures 1,494 1,891 (15,024) (27,994) (20,447) (7,285) (16,840) (1,655) 7,817 21,049 48,562 87, , , , , , , , , ,046 Adjust to actual Fund Balance - beginning of year 150, , , , ,139 90,692 83,406 66,566 64,912 72,729 93, , , , , , ,861 1,004,811 1,295,702 1,609,634 1,946,436 Fund Balance - end of year 152, , , ,139 90,692 83,406 66,566 64,912 72,729 93, , , , , , ,861 1,004,811 1,295,702 1,609,634 1,946,436 2,313,482 Ending balance as % of next year's G.O. DS 74.7% 68.8% 58.9% 48.0% 39.8% 34.3% 28.5% 28.8% 33.1% 46.9% 81.9% 136.7% 209.7% 305.8% 421.8% 887.2% % % % % #DIV/0! 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 111

110 Board of Commissioners Retreat 2011 Future Building Programs Presentation Overview Review of Prior Referenda Identify Future Building Programs Currently Not Included in County s Long Term Capital Financing Model Wake Tech WCPSS Review Estimated Capacity for New Capital Financing Identify Impacts Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 113 1

111 Wake County Prior Bond Referenda Past Bond Referenda November 7, 2000 Schools $500 million Criminal Justice (Hammond Road) $20 million Open Space $15 million October 7, 2003 Schools $450 million Libraries $35 million November 2, 2004 Community College $40 million Open Space $26 million November 7, 2006 Schools $970 million October 9, 2007 Community College $92 million Libraries $45 million Open Space $50 million Assumptions for Building Programs Would Adhere to Capital and Debt Management Policies Plan funded through dedicated revenue sources Target 80% Debt Funding; 20% cash 19% Minimum Fund Balance in the Debt Service Fund Debt repayment schedule that meets standards for AAA rated counties Scenarios assume debt financing would be general obligation bonds (requires approval of voters through referendum) 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 114 2

112 Tax Rate Projections for Approved Capital Projects (In Cents) Total $1.056 Billion CIP 2006 ($970 Million in Bonds) Capital and Debt Service Operating Total $210 Million Capital Plans ($187 Million in Bonds) Capital and Debt Service (Libraries, Open Space and Wake Tech) Libraries - Operating Wake Tech - Operating Total County Buildings - Operating Criminal Justice - Operating Total Capital and Debt Service Total Operating Impacts Total Cells shaded green were not implemented Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 115

113 WAKE TECH FUTURE BUILDING PROGRAM Review of Current Building Program Wake Tech 2006 Master Plan Identified projects totaling approximately $236 million Wake Tech prioritized projects and requested a $115 million building program. In October 2007, Wake County Voters approved general obligation bond funding of $92 million, in support of $115 million funding for Wake Tech 2007 Building Program July 2010: Final bonds approved as part of 2007 building program sold; all cash has been appropriated. Final projects (North Campus Building E, Health Sciences Phase II) under construction Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 116 1

114 Wake Tech Master Plan Update In 2010, Wake Tech expressed a need to revisit the 2006 Master Plan due to near completion of 2006 Master Plan projects and increased student enrollment due in part to the downturn in the economy. As part of the FY 2011 Adopted CIP, funding was approved to update the 2006 Wake Tech Master Plan. Wake Tech Master Plan Update County staff received the update late December College wide enrollment has grown approximately 5% since Estimated enrollment, 68,666. This is an increase of 11,626 over the school year (headcount) Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 117 2

115 Master Plan Facts Projects included in the Master Plan update total $338 million. Projects are not prioritized. Master Plan Includes: Main Campus: 4 new buildings, 1 renovation, and parking improvements North Campus: 5 new buildings (3 classroom, 2 regional plants), programming renovations at Buildings A and B, athletic fields, and onsite and public infrastructure Public Safety Center: Final Phase of Renovation for Instructional Space Health Sciences: Renovation of Allied Health Building RTP Campus: First classroom building (Phase I) Wake Tech Next Steps County staff will meet with Wake Tech to review and analyze Wake Tech Master Plan projects Wake Tech will prioritize projects (projects not prioritized in Master Plan Update) Wake Tech will refine list of projects to request funding Wake Tech will identify operating budget impacts Wake Tech will present list of projects to consider for potential referendum 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 118 3

116 WCPSS FUTURE BUILDING PROGRAM WCPSS Request (January 4, 2011) Board of Education Approved Spending Request Includes only one major project remaining as part of CIP will include Board of Education prioritized projects funded out of CIP 2006 Savings/Reserve Major Projects Note Rolesville High School $ 63.9 $ Other Projects Life Cycle Replcements includes funds from 21.1 sale of admin. Buildings Land includes funds from 9.2 sale of admin. buildings Start Up Design Equipment Replacement 0.8 Environmental and ADA 2.7 Mobile Modular 4.4 Program Management, Assessments, Permits Contingency & Reserve $ $ Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 119 4

117 Updated Enrollment Projections: Enrollment Projections Lowered with Continued Delay in Economic Recovery Enrollment Projections: CIP 2006, Fall 2009, and January , , , , , , , , , , CIP 2006 Enrollment Projections Fall 2009 Enrollment Projections Jan 2011 Enrollment Projections WCPSS Future Building Program WCPSS indicates that with no change in status quo, 25 new schools are needed by Year Round Elementary 4 Year Round Middle 5 High School 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 120 5

118 WCPSS Next Steps Discuss Building Program Assumptions Determine Estimated Costs of New Schools and Renovations Work with WCPSS and Board of Education to Model Financial Scenarios Identify Tax Impacts of Potential Building Programs FUTURE CAPITAL FINANCING 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 121 6

119 New Capacity Assumptions Assume Starting Point is February 2011 Planned General Obligation Bond Sale Capital Plan Assumptions GROWTH RATES: Total Property Tax Rate Property Tax Rate for Capital Property Tax Valuation Growth 0.25% 0.75% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% 3.50% Sales tax annual growth rate 0.00% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% Investment rate 1.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00% Tax-exempt variable interest rate 0.30% 0.30% 0.75% 1.55% 2.05% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70% 2.70% Variable Rate Fees 0.70% 0.57% 0.55% 0.55% 0.60% 0.60% 0.60% 0.60% 0.60% 0.60% 0.60% Total All-In Variable Rate Costs 1.00% 0.87% 1.30% 2.10% 2.65% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 3.30% 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 122

120 Current Capacity for New Debt 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 123

121 Current Capacity for New Debt There is capacity to issue some GO debt in the short term, and additional capacity to issue GO debt in the later years in the financial model. Approximately $42 million can be issued in FY 12 without a tax increase. Approximately $585 million can be issued between FY 17 and FY 20. There is also $20 million to $40 million in cash funding available to leverage towards projects. Amount may need to be used towards County CIP Projects not currently funded in the FY CIP. Capacity Provided by 1.0 Cent Increase in Property Tax 1.0 cent tax increase provides the ability to create $125 million in additional capital capacity in the short term $100 million in new GO Bonds (80%) $50 million in FY13 and FY 14 $25 million in new cash financing (20%) $12.5 million in FY13 and FY 14 In FY 2017, the 1.0 cent tax increase provides an additional $70 million in available capacity Fund Balance Percentage Low = 19.1% in Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 124 1

122 Wake Tech Scenarios: Sales Tax instead of Property Tax ¼ Cent Authorized by General Assembly Estimated income: $25 million per year Assume funding available for FY 2013, second quarter Provides approximately $250 million in capacity $100 million in GO debt in FY 13 and FY 14 $25 million of cash funding in FY 13, and FY 14 Fund Balance Low of 19.4% in Additional capacity to issue debt in later years of the model. QUESTIONS? 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 125 2

123 Memorandum TO: FROM: Anthony Tata, Superintendent David Cooke, County Manager Laura Evans, Senior Director for WCPSS Growth and Planning Nicole Kreiser, Debt and Capital Director DATE: February 2, 2011 SUBJECT: Enrollment Projections for WCPSS Operating and Capital Expenditures Staff from Wake County Budget and Management Services, the Wake County Planning Department, and WCPSS Growth and Planning have met to review the most recent building program student enrollment projections and to develop the student enrollment projection to guide allotments and the development of WCPSS operating budget for the school years. The result of the staff work follows. Overview The joint staff continues to support the use of two distinct approaches for projecting student enrollment. The student enrollment projections for the WCPSS operating budget continue to be generated once a year in advance of the preparation of WCPSS operating budget and use the same percentage growth from year to year. Student enrollment projections for capital purposes have a multi-year impact; thus, it continues to be necessary to generate a different set of student enrollment projections for capital purposes that takes into consideration varying rates of growth over time. This memorandum contains these two different projections. Methodology Much of the work this fall by the joint staffs was to evaluate the prior year s operating and capital projections. The County has used a model created by the DeJong consulting firm since the school years. For the past two years, the operating budget projections have been within 0.3% margin of error in projecting a system wide total. However, the projections have been less accurate across grade levels. Elementary students were over projected while middle and high school students were under projected. In reviewing the various enrollment projections generated over the past few years, staff reviewed the grade level projections performed by the Operations and Research Education Laboratory (OR/Ed) at NC State, used to prepare target rings for future school sites. Their projections for grade level enrollment, based upon actual geo-coded WCPSS student data, provided a better grade level projection than the grade level projection generated by the DeJong model. Their grade level projections were generated from the joint staff system wide projection provided to OR/Ed by WCPSS. For the operating and capital projections, it was decided that the current projection model would continue to generate the system wide student enrollment number, but that OR/Ed would generate grade level projections built upon geo-coded student data provided by WCPSS Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 126

124 Economic Climate Since fall of 2008, the County has continued to assess economic indicators such as unemployment, sales tax revenue growth, building permits, as well as student enrollment indicators such as market share. At the time of this memo, unemployment in Wake County still continues to remain high at 7.5 percent. Sales tax revenues have stabilized and appear to no longer be declining, but growth is expected to be modest after two years of declining revenue. While building permits for the County have begun to increase, actual value added to the property tax base continues to be approximately half of the total permitted cost. In comparison, during times of significant growth, actual value added to the property tax base equaled exceeded permitted value. Please refer to the attachments for various charts regarding the County s economic indicators. Population Changes In November 2010, the state demographer lowered the official population growth projections for Wake County. Moreover, the County is experiencing the second year of declining live births. This suggests that the rapid population growth projected several years ago has slowed. While Wake County is growing, the rate of population growth will not be as high as previously projected. Finally, a review of market share indicates that WCPSS market share continues to remain fairly constant, but there has been a slight increase in percentage of the school aged population being homeschooled and enrolled in private school. Please refer to the attachments for various charts regarding overall population projections and market share. Projections For operating purposes, staff believes that student enrollment will grow at a similar rate as in the past two prior years, after adjusting for the impact related to the change in kindergarten enrollment eligibility which lowered kindergarten enrollment for the school years and then caused a high annual growth percentage for the school years with the return of a full year of kindergarten students. To smooth out the artificially low growth in the school years, and the return of a full year of kindergarten students in the school years, staff applied a three-year average to project student enrollment growth for the school years. The growth percentages are lower in the out years due to the reduced number of live births in 2009, 2010, and 2011 (projected) Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 127

125 Table 1: Student Enrollment Projection for Operating Purposes School Year -1% Mid-Point 1% 143,289 Growth 2.6% (Note 1) , , , % , , , % , , , % , , , % , , , % , , , % , , , % , , , % , , , % , , , % Note 1: Kindergarten enrollment growth was artificially high in 2010 due to the prior year including only 46 weeks of kindergartners based on the change in the age cutoff for kindergarten enrollment. Staff continues to believe that during times of high economic growth with high levels of inmigration, WCPSS experiences large increases in student enrollment. Conversely, during times of slow economic growth and low in-migration, WCPSS student enrollment grows at a much more moderate rate. The rate of growth for the County follows this same trend. Student enrollment projections have been revised to reflect a more moderate economic recovery. The capital projections reflect a slower rate of growth. While the projection continues to mirror the same economic trends experienced during the growth period, the percent growth has been lowered to reflect a larger scale of actual WCPSS enrollment and to reflect lower live births which will result in lower kindergarten enrollment in the future. This methodology continues to result in slower growth in student enrollment in years where the economy may grow at a slower rate, and faster growth in student enrollment in years where the economy is rebounding or has recovered. Table 2: Student Projection for Building Program School Year -1% Mid-Point 1% 143,289 Growth 2.6% (Note 1) , , , % , , , % , , , % , , , % , , , % , , , % , , , % , , , % , , , % , , , % 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 128

126 With the adjustment of the building program projection to a more moderate economic recovery, the projection for the building program is less than what was presented in November 2009 and considerably less than the projections used to develop the CIP 2006 building program. Table 3: Comparison of Projections 205, , , , , , , , , ,000 Enrollment Projections: CIP 2006, Fall 2009, and January 2011 CIP 2006 Enrollment Projections Fall 2009 Enrollment Projections Jan 2011 Enrollment Projections Staff will review student enrollment data based off of the 20 th day enrollment for the school years. That data may be used to develop building program scenarios for a future building program. For the time being, assuming 100% utilization, no change in the number of mobiles and modulars, and the continued construction of all new elementary and middle schools that will operate on a multi-track year round calendar, WCPSS predicts that 25 schools will be needed by Attached are the charts that detail current capacity and the predicted number of new schools by elementary, middle, and high. Conclusion By generating two projections based upon two different models, we hope to avoid overprojecting student enrollment that is part of the operating budget, and to issue a projection for the building program that takes into consideration potential changes in the economy, and anticipates facilities early enough to provide adequate classroom space to serve a growing enrollment. If you have any questions about the methodology or would like additional information on the projections, we welcome an opportunity to review the attached materials in greater detail Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 129

127 Attachments Related to Economic Indicators 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 130

128 12.0% Unemployment 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% United States North Carolina Wake County 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 131

129 6% Actual Property Tax Growth and Sets of Projections Property tax projections were lowered each year to adjust for a slower economic recovery. 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% FY 07 FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 18 FY19 FY 20 Actual Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jan Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 132

130 Sales Tax Comparisons: Actual Growth and BMS Projections FY 2007 FY 2016 Sales tax projections were lowered each year to adjust for a slower economic recovery. 15% 10% 5% 0% FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY % 10% 15% 20% Actual Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jan Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 133

131 Grand Total Building Permit Summary January to December Total Permits Total Permitted Cost 20,000 18,000 3,750,000,000 TOTAL PERMITS 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 3,250,000,000 2,750,000,000 2,250,000,000 1,750,000,000 TOTAL PERMITTED COST 6,000 1,250,000,000 4,000 2, ,000, ,000,000 YEAR 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 134

132 Attachments Related to Population, Live Births, and Market Share 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 1 of 5 Page 135

133 1,250,000 County Population Estimates (State Demographer) 1,200,000 1,150,000 1,100,000 1,050,000 1,000, , , April 2009 Estimate September 2010 Estimate Page 2 of Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 136

134 14,000 Wake County Live Births 13,500 13,000 12,500 12,000 11, est. Page 3 of Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 137

135 14,000 Live Births and Kindergarten Enrollment 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Kindergarten enrollment was actually less than the number of live births in the County from five years prior for and This is an anomally as typically enrollment tends to equal live births or is higher than the number of live births during times of high economic growth and inmigration. This data led County staff to lower the number of projected kindergarten students from earlier building program projections Live Births (from 5 years earlier) Kindergarten Enrollment Page 4 of Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 138

136 Distribution of Wake County Student Population in Public and Non-Public Systems: 2000/ /10 Market Share FY Academic Year Private Schools Home WCPSS K-12 Home WCPSS Total Charter Schools Schools 20th Day 1 Private Schools Charter Schools Totals Schools 20th Day (Rounded) ,006 3,131 2,334 97, , % 2.8% 2.0% 84.8% 100% ,615 4,490 2, , , % 3.7% 2.4% 83.5% 100% ,267 5,042 3, , , % 4.0% 2.8% 82.7% 100% ,951 5,374 3, , , % 4.1% 3.0% 83.0% 100% ,375 5,801 4, , , % 4.2% 3.3% 82.8% 100% ,525 6,361 4, , , % 4.4% 3.4% 82.9% 100% ,021 6,516 4, , , % 4.2% 3.3% 83.4% 100% ,696 7,059 5, , , % 4.4% 3.3% 83.2% 100% ,123 7,571 4, , , % 4.6% 3.0% 83.3% 100% ,689 7,890 5, , , % 4.7% 3.1% 82.9% 100% To be Released To be Released 5, ,289 1 NC Department of Public Instruction 1st month membership last day reports for Wake County Public School System: 20th day. Note: Private and Home schools data compiled from the North Carolina Division of Non-Public Education website. Data released Spring of current school year. Charter schools data from WCPSS October billing of charter school students. Home and Private Schools data collection may not reflect 20th day enrollment. Page 5 of Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 139

137 Wake County Public School System Board of Education Enrollment Projections and Impact on School Crowding February 1, Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 140

138 Membership Projections February 1, Elementary Jan '11 70,482 72,278 74,281 76,534 79,493 Middle Jan '11 33,886 35,347 36,612 37,802 38,078 High Jan '11 42,289 43,763 45,413 47,259 49,162 Total 146, , , , , Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 141

139 100,000 Membership Projections February 1, 2011 Projected Membership 95,000 90,000 85,000 80,000 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 E: Jan '11 M: Jan '11 H: Jan '11 30, School Year Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 142

140 Membership Projections ,000 95,000 90,000 85,000 Projected Membership 80,000 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 E: Jan '11 M: Jan '11 H: Jan '11 E: Sept '10 M: Sept '10 H: Sept' 10 E: DPI '10 M: DPI '10 H: DPI '10 40,000 35,000 30, School Year Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 143

141 ELEMENTARY: Membership vs. Seats 100,000 98,000 96,000 94,000 92,000 90,000 88,000 Membership 86,000 84,000 82,000 80,000 Membership Capacity 78,000 76,000 74,000 72,000 70,000 68, School Year Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 144

142 Elementary Cumulative Seat Availability/Deficit 7,500 5,000 2, (2,500) (5,000) (7,500) Seats Gained 100% Seats Available/ Deficit at 100% (10,000) (12,500) 12,900 (15,000) (17,500) 15, Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 145

143 Elementary Cumulative Seat Availability/Deficit 15,500 7,500 5,000 2, (2,500) (5,000) (7,500) Seats Gained 100% Seats Available/ Deficit at 100% (10,000) (12,500) 12,900 (15,000) (17,500) 15, New Schools Needed Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 146

144 Middle: Membership vs. Seats 58,000 56,000 54,000 52,000 50,000 48,000 46,000 Membership 44,000 42,000 40,000 38,000 Membership Capacity 36,000 34,000 32,000 30,000 28,000 26, School Year Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 147

145 Middle Cumulative Seat Availability/Deficit 5,000 2,500 0 (2,500) ,300 Seats Gained 100% Seats Available/ Deficit at 100% (5,000) 4,900 (7,500) (10,000) (12,500) Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 148

146 Middle Cumulative Seat Availability/Deficit 5,000 2,500 0 (2,500) (5,000) ,300 4,900 Seats Gained 100% Seats Available/ Deficit at 100% (7,500) (10,000) (12,500) New YR School Needed Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 149

147 High: Membership vs. Seats 66,000 64,000 62,000 60,000 58,000 56,000 Membership 54,000 52,000 50,000 48,000 Membership Capacity 46,000 44,000 42,000 40,000 38,000 36,000 34, School Year Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 150

148 High Cumulative Seat Availability/Deficit 5,000 2, (2,500) (5,000) Seats Gained 100% Seats Available/ Deficit at 100% (7,500) 8,700 (10,000) 10,100 (12,500) Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 151

149 High Cumulative Seat Availability/Deficit 5,000 2, (2,500) (5,000) Seats Gained 100% Seats Available/ Deficit at 100% (7,500) 8,700 (10,000) 10,100 (12,500) New Schools 13 Needed 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 152

150 Cautions! This is a county wide picture Does not reflect regional excess or deficit; Assumes every seat in use 100% utilization; Assumes all present temporary classrooms remain in use; Rate of economic recovery impacts rate of enrollment growth Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 153

151 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 154

152 Transit Update Board of Commissioners Retreat February 4, 2011 Transit Update What We Said We Would Do Last Year Work with all municipalities Prepare detailed plan Interlocal agreement with each municipality 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 155 1

153 Transit Update Interlocal Agreement Municipalities agree to: Approve the Transit Plan Governance (How transit decisions are made) Support the ½ cent sales tax referendum Support the vehicle registration fee(s) Support transit oriented development Performance and financial metrics Identify a plan review process 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 156 2

154 Major Milestones Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 157

155 Transit Update Where We Are We have met with all municipalities at least once The Bus Plan is nearing completion Cost estimates and route performance expectations will be available in March The Rail Plan is nearing completion Cost estimates and performance expectations for the rail segments in Wake County will be available in March Obtaining municipal input on the interlocal agreement Transit Update Amended Schedule Task / Milestone Bus Plan Project / Costs / Priorities March 2011 Rail Plan Project / Costs / Priorities March 2011 Draft Composite Wake County Transit Plan May 2011 Completion Date Municipalities Consider/Approve Transit Plan September October 2011 CAMPO Considers/Approves Transit Plan August 2011 Wake BOC Considers/Approves Transit Plan October December 2011 Board of Commissioners Set the Referendum October December 2011 Referendum May 2012 / November 2012 / May Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 158 1

156 2011 Board of Commissioners Goals (DRAFT) The Year 2011 begins on a cautiously optimistic note for Wake County. The County is still growing, albeit slowly. Data on building permits, sales tax, and jobs are at levels higher than the previous year. On one hand, the County appearss to have weathered the worst economy in a generation. The County has survived and perhaps even succeeded by adhering to previous Commissioners goals and by: Reducing the expenditures of County government and maintaining the tax rate at 53.4 cents; Focusing on basic services and priorities through targeted reductions in the FY 2011 Budget; and, Maintaining a long term perspective by continuing priority capital projects and other community wide initiatives. On the other hand, the near term outlook is minimal revenue growth for the County, mixed with risk exposure to the State of North Carolina s budget challenges. For the County to continue to survive and succeed in 2011, the County should maintain and pursue goals and strategies similar to those of At the same time, new discussions and policy issues have become part of the conversation in Some of these issues ( like Transit) have been around for a long time but key legislative actions have occurred that will require county government involvement and response Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 159

157 Board of Commissioners Goals (DRAFT) I. The Economy and Jobs and Investment 1. Develop and approve a budget for fiscal year that maintains the property tax rate at 53.4 cents. 2. Continue to work with Wake Technical Community College, the Wake Economic Development Program and existing businesses to attract new jobs, to retain jobs, and to provide training to individuals in transition. 3. Evaluate regulations, fees and/or practices which, if amended, may encourage business investment/re investment (without sacrificing other public policy objectives.) II. Education Capital and Infrastructure 4. Work with Wake Technical Community College to develop a capital program for which will be supported by thee citizens and voters of Wake County. 5. Work with the Wake County Public School System on a capital program for 2012 to 2017 which will be supported by the citizens and voters of Wake County. III. Transit 6. Work with Triangle Transit, the municipalities, and the business community on a Transit Plan which includes both bus and rail and determinee support of the municipalities and the business community for a ½ sales tax referendum scheduled no sooner than the Spring of IV. Continuing Goals from Prior Years 7. Complete the work of the Sustainability recommendations for implementation. Task Force and evaluate 8. Improve the Mental Health System in Wake County with the opening of the Continuum of Care facilities and securingg partners to operate some or all of the facilities in the most cost efficient manner Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 160

158 9. Human Capital: a. Implement plans to deliver Humann Services that will enable citizens to achieve and/or maintain middle class status, ultimately reducing dependence on government support. b. Work with the Human Services Boardd to identify departmental priorities for resource allocation and budget recommendations. 10. Education: Work with Wake County Public Schools and Wake Technical Community College to develop operatingg budget strategies that do not require increasing the property tax rate, yet reflects education as a priority in Wake County. 11. Continue to maintain the County s AA AA credit rating with agencies. all three rating 12. Effective and efficient delivery of Fire/Rescue and EMS: Continue discussions with contracted service providers to identify consolidation opportunities in fire/rescue services and EMS delivery andd identify other strategies that will yield more effective and efficient fire/rescue and emergency medical services. 13. Urban County Leadership: Continue to take a leadership role among the largest urbanizing counties to discuss and promote common issues in the State Legislature Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 161

159 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 162

160 Notes 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 163

161 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 164

162 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 165

163 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 166

164 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 167

165 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 168

166 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 169

167 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 170

168 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 171

169 2011 Wake County Board of Commissioners Retreat Page 172