March 27, Ontario Financing Authority. Ontario Financing Authority.

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1 March 27, 2012 Ontario Financing Authority Ontario Financing Authority

2 Canada Overview Lowest government net debt-to-gdp ratio of any G7 country, and expected to remain so Ranked as having soundest banking system for four consecutive years Solid housing market, supported by conservative mortgage market and long-term economic fundamentals Economy expected to grow faster than most other G7 nations in 2012 and

3 Ontario Overview Located in prime area with close ties to many major U.S. cities Population of 13.4 million and GDP of $638 billion in 2011, both roughly 40 per cent of Canada Government policy focused on long-term growth and innovation through investment and tax reform 2

4 Ontario s Diverse Economy Structure of the Ontario Economy, 2011 (per cent share of Ontario GDP) Finance, Insurance and Real Estate 1 24% Auto 3% Primary and Utilities 4% Construction 5% Manufacturing (less Auto) 12% Canada s business and financial services and manufacturing centre About half of Canada s high-tech employment Other 19% Wholesale, Retail and Transportation and Warehousing 16% One of the largest concentrations of bio-technology firms in North America Government, Health and Education 18% Services (76% of GDP) Goods (24% of GDP) Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding 1 Includes estimate of imputed rental income on owner occupied dwellings Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance. 3

5 Relatively Low Net Debt-to-GDP Ratio Net Debt-to-GDP (per cent) Canada Ontario U.K. U.S. Germany France Japan Italy Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (September 2011) and Ontario Ministry of Finance. 4

6 Conservative Mortgage and Housing Market Mortgage Carrying Cost as a Share of Disposable Income per Household (per cent) With interest rates expected to remain near record lows into 2013, debt servicing costs remain affordable Resilient and affordable mortgage market attributed to strong economic fundamentals Lower defaults and arrears reflect Canadian credit culture and more rigorous underwriting standards In Canada, all high-ratio residential mortgages issued by regulated financial institutions must be insured Note: Carrying cost is based on the average five-year mortgage rate, a 25-year amortization and a 20 per cent down payment. Sources: Statistics Canada, Canadian Real Estate Association and Ontario Ministry of Finance. 5

7 Relatively Strong Job Recovery in Ontario Employment (Per Cent Change from Peak) Ontario -1 U.K U.S Sources: Statistics Canada, U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics and U.K. Office for National Statistics. 6

8 Forecast for Sustained and Better Balanced Growth Average Annual Per Cent Change Average Annual Contribution to Real GDP Growth (Percentage Points) p Ontario GDP Consumption Government Housing Plant & Equipment Net Trade -1.5 p = Ontario Ministry of Finance planning projection. Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance. 7

9 Ontario Exports Shifting to New Markets Per Cent Change, 2005 to Services (17) (16) Goods Goods and Services to Other Provinces Goods and Services to Other Countries Goods to the Rest of the World 54 (28) Goods to the U.S. Source: Statistics Canada. 8

10 Strengthening U.S. Recovery U.S. Real GDP U.S. Light Motor Vehicle Sales Growth (per cent) Millions of Units p 2013p 2014p 2015p p2013p2014p2015p p = projection. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and Blue Chip Economic Indicators (March 2012). 9

11 Ontario Economic Outlook for Continued Growth Ontario Economic Outlook (per cent) Real GDP Growth (3.2) e Nominal GDP Growth (0.9) e Employment Growth (2.5) Unemployment Rate CPI Inflation Actual Ontario Ministry of Finance planning projection e = estimate. Sources: Statistics Canada and Ontario Ministry of Finance. 10

12 Relatively Strong Economic Growth Outlook G7 Economic Growth, 2012 G7 Economic Growth, 2013 Average Real GDP Growth (per cent) Average Real GDP Growth (per cent) Sources: Consensus Economics (March 2012), Blue Chip Economic Indicators (March 2012), and Ontario Ministry of Finance Survey of Forecasts (March 2012) 11

13 Strong Government Fiscal Position Net Debt-to-GDP G7 Countries, 2011 Projected Deficit-to-GDP G7 Countries, 2012 (per cent) (per cent) Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (September 2011) and Ontario Ministry of Finance. Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (September 2011), Ontario Ministry of Finance, Department of Finance Canada. 12

14 Ontario s Plan to Balance the Budget Fiscal Balance ($ Billions) Medium-Term Outlook Extended Outlook (19.3) Actual (14.0) Interim (15.3) (15.2) Plan (13.3) (10.7) (7.8) (4.2) (19.7) (17.3) (15.9) -25 (24.7) Performance 1 Fiscal Forecast Represents current forecast for to For and , actual results are presented. 2 Forecast for to based on the 2010 Budget. Projection for from the 2009 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review. Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance. 13

15 Medium-Term Fiscal Plan and Outlook Interim Plan Outlook ($ Billions) Total Revenue Expense Programs Interest on Debt Total Expense Reserve Surplus / (Deficit) (15.3) (15.2) (13.3) (10.7) Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding 14

16 Revenue and Expense Outlook Total revenue in is estimated to be $109.3 billion, or $20 million below the 2011 Budget forecast. Total revenue is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.5 per cent over the to period. Total expense in is projected to be $353 million lower than the 2011 Budget forecast as a result of strong expenditure management and lower interest on debt expense. Total expense is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 1.5 per cent over the to period. Between and , program spending growth will be held to an average of 0.9 per cent - in line with the recommendation of the Commission on the Reform of Ontario s Public Services. 15

17 Medium-Term Borrowing Outlook Current Outlook Medium-Term Outlook ($ Billions) Deficit Investment in Capital Assets Non-Cash Adjustments (3.8) (4.0) (3.6) Net Loans/Investments Debt Maturities Debt Redemptions Total Funding Requirement Canada Pension Plan Borrowing (0.8) Decrease/(Increase) in Short-Term Borrowing (3.0) (3.0) Increase/(Decrease) in Cash and Cash Equivalents (0.0) (0.7) (0.7) Debt Buy-Backs (1.2) (2.0) Total Long-Term Public Borrowing Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding 16

18 Domestic and International Borrowing Plan to borrow at least 70 per cent in the domestic market in (borrowed 81 per cent in ) In line with historical average of issuing approximately 75 per cent in that market, but represents a considerable decline in the reliance on foreign markets during the financial crisis. ($ Billions) Canadian dollar Foreign currencies Projected Total Source: Ontario Financing Authority. Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding 17

19 Canadian Market Issuance Domestic Market Issuance $28.3 billion Syndicated Bonds $24.7B (87%) Floating Rate Notes $3.1B (11%) Ontario Savings Bonds $0.6B (2%) Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding Source: Ontario Financing Authority. Ontario is a benchmark borrower in the Canadian bond market, issuing syndicated bonds, floating rate notes, real return bonds, medium-term notes, auctions and Ontario Savings Bonds to retail investors. Well-defined yield curve maintained through regular issuance of 5-year, 10-year and 30-year issues, which are re-opened to achieve benchmark size Large and diverse domestic underwriting syndicate makes active markets in Ontario bonds Ontario bonds have accounted for about 58 per cent of Canadian provincial bond trading in Source: IIROC. 1 Nine months ending September 30, 2011 Outstanding Benchmark Size: Canada vs. Ontario (as at March 26, 2012) Ontario Canada 5 yr (old) 3.2% September 8, 2016 $1.0B 2.0% June 1, 2016 $9.9B 5 yr (new) 1.90% September 8, 2017 $3.25B 4.0% June 1, 2017 $10.3B 10 yr (old) 4.0% June 2, 2021 $9.0B 3.25% June 1, 2021 $11.5B 10 yr (new) 3.15% June 2, 2022 $4.5B 2.75% June 1, 2022 $7.5B Long (old) 4.65% June 2, 2041 $11.65B 4.0% June 1, 2041 $15.8B Long (new) 3.5% June 2, 2043 $2.1B 3.5% December 1, B Source: Bloomberg. 18

20 Ontario International Borrowing In , the Province borrowed $6.5 billion in international markets. Australian dollars $0.2B (4%) Norwegian kroner $0.1B (1%) U.S. dollars $6.2B (95%) Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding Source: Ontario Financing Authority. 19

21 U.S. Dollar Market Since 1991, core market with issues annually Increased benchmark size starting in U.S. dollar investors diversified both geographically and by type USD 1 by Geography USD 1 by Investor Type United States 44% Canada 24% Asset Managers 29% Central Banks/ Sovereign Wealth Funds 23% Other 4% Middle East 5% Europe 5% Asia 18% 1 Ontario U.S. dollar-denominated bonds issued in as at March 27, Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding Other 7% Insurance Companies / Pension Funds 20% Banks / Trust Companies 21% Source: Ontario Financing Authority. 20

22 U.S. Dollar Market U.S. dollar Issuance Size Coupon Maturity USD 3.5 billion 1.375% January 27, 2014 USD 1.25 billion 3.15% December 15, 2017 USD 1.25 billion 1.875% September 15, 2015 USD 2.5 billion 2.70% June 16, 2015 USD 0.5 billion(frn) 3-month U.S. LIBOR +16 basis points May 7, 2013 USD 2.0 billion 4.40% April 14, U.S. dollar Issuance Size Coupon Maturity USD 3.0 billion 2.3% May 10, 2016 USD 1.0 billion 3.0% July 16, 2018 USD 2.0 billion 1.6% September 21, 2016 Ontario has been expanding its U.S. dollar global investor base which has allowed it to increase its benchmark issue size while still offering attractive spreads and the potential of positive spread performance. Issues have tended to be oversubscribed, with some deals having more than 100 investors. Source: Ontario Financing Authority, March 27,

23 Spread to ASW (bps) U.S. Dollar Performance Asset Swap Spread: 5-Year U.S. Dollar 7/22/11 8/22/11 9/22/11 10/22/11 11/22/11 12/22/11 1/22/12 2/22/12 3/22/ ONT /10/16 EIB 2 1/4 03/15/16 KfW /16/16 Source: Bloomberg Analytics, March 22,

24 Euro Market Provides good opportunity to expand investor base and diversify across Europe euro 1 by Geography Asia 12% Other 2% euro 1 by Investor Type Asset Managers/ Fund Managers 35% Banks 46% Europe 86% Central Banks/Official Institutions 6% Insurance Companies/ Pension Funds 13% Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding 1 Ontario euro-denominated bonds issued in fiscal Source: Ontario Financing Authority. 23

25 Total Debt Composition C$257.5 Billion (as at March 31, 2012) International bonds Canadian dollars U.S. dollars Euros Japanese yen New Zealand dollars Norwegian kroner Swiss francs U.K. pounds sterling Australian dollars South African rand Hong Kong dollars Domestic Bonds $160.7B (62%) International Bonds $65.3B (25%) Treasury Bills and U.S. Commercial Paper $16.5B (6%) Domestic bonds Syndicated bonds Medium-term notes Floating rate notes Ontario Savings Bonds Bond auctions Real return bonds Non-Public Debt $15.0B (6%) Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding Source: Ontario Financing Authority. 24

26 Risk Management Foreign exchange exposure of 1.0 per cent of outstanding debt as at February 29, Policy limit is 5.0 per cent of debt Floating rate exposure of 9.6 per cent as at February 29, 2012 (i.e., net floating rate exposure plus debt maturing within one year). Policy limit is 35.0 per cent of debt Monitor and manage debt maturity profile to limit refinancing risk Strict credit limits for financial and investment counterparties Developing collateralized swap agreements for swap counterparties Ontario treasury bills and U.S. commercial paper are very well received in the money markets and provide additional borrowing capacity if required. Note: Excludes Ontario Electricity Financial Corporation debt 25

27 Credit Ratings Credit Rating Agency Current Ratings (Long-Term / Short-Term) S&P AA - / A-1+ Moody s Aa1 (N) / P-1 DBRS AA (low) / R-1 (mid) Ontario s debt has a zero risk-weighting in Canada, U.S., Australia, Singapore, U.K., France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, Belgium, Norway, Finland, Denmark and Ireland. 26

28 Summary Backed by Ontario s diverse economy, Ontario bonds offer an attractive combination of safety, liquidity and yield. Ontario s flexible fiscal policy and extensive taxation powers allow for greater financial autonomy than many other sub-national issuers. Relative to its international peers, Ontario s economic performance and potential for growth remains positive. Further information is available on the Ontario Financing Authority website: 27

29 APPENDIX 28

30 Outlook for External Factors World Real GDP Growth (per cent) U.S. Real GDP Growth (per cent) Canada Real GDP Growth (per cent) West Texas Intermediate ($US/bbl.) Canadian Dollar (Cents U.S.) Three-Month Treasury Bill Rate 1 (per cent) 10-Year Government Bond Rate 1 (per cent) (0.7) e (3.5) (2.8) Actual Ontario Ministry of Finance planning projection based on external sources. e = estimate. 1 Government of Canada interest rates. Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook (September 2011 and January 2012), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Blue Chip Economic Indicators (March 2012), Statistics Canada, Consensus Economics (January 2012), New York Mercantile Exchange, Bank of Canada, Ontario Ministry of Finance Survey of Forecasts (March 2012) and Ontario Ministry of Finance. 29

31 Share in Total Revenue Sub-Central Governments Play Significant Role in Public Finance Sub-Central Governments Share in General Government Revenues and Expenditures* 60 Canada Switzerland 50 Japan Germany U.S.A. Spain Denmark 40 Austria Finland Sweden 30 Greece Portugal Luxembourg France Ireland Italy Poland Norway U.K. Belgium Netherlands Share in Total Expenditure *OECD National Accounts and U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (data based on 2006 or latest year available; revenue excludes transfers received from other levels of government; and expenditure excludes transfers paid to other levels of government) Source: Blöchliger, H. et al. (2010), Sub-central Governments and the Economic Crisis: Impact and Policy Responses, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No

32 Federal vs. Provincial Division of Powers Expenditure responsibilities of federal and provincial governments are described in the Constitution Act, 1867 Provincial government responsible for: hospitals, health care, education (including universities and colleges), highways, social programs and municipal governments Provinces retain discretion over expense decisions and are free to modify their expenses to meet policy objectives Provinces have ability to borrow, but do not control monetary policy Provincial governments do not require a vote or supermajority, as in some American states, to raise revenues or cut expenses Unfettered access to a broad range of tax bases and the ability to alter expenditure programs provide Ontario, and all Canadian provinces, with a high degree of fiscal policy flexibility that is more akin to that of sovereign governments than to many of their international sub-sovereign peers. Moody s Investors Services 31

33 Federal Transfers to the Provinces Federal transfers to the provinces support provincial program spending All provinces receive health and social transfers from the federal government; some provinces receive equalization payments Provinces have considerable flexibility in how transfer payments are used, in contrast to U.S. states which receive conditional transfers Transfer Canada Health Transfer Used for.. Supporting health care spending in Provinces and territories Canada Social Transfer Supporting postsecondary education and social programs Equalization Addressing fiscal disparities among Provinces 32

34 Equalization Equalization is the federal government s transfer program for addressing fiscal disparities among provinces. Ontario will receive an Equalization payment of almost $3.3 billion in This is up from the $2.2-billion payment in Ontario s entitlement is $249 per capita compared to an average per capita entitlement of $1,605 among other receiving provinces. 33

35 Distribution of Taxation Powers Federal government has unrestricted power to levy taxes Provincial governments are limited to taxation within their provincial boundaries (i.e., income, sales, property and commodity taxes) Provinces have the authority to set their own tax policies. Under tax collection agreements with the Federal government, the federal government administers and collects Ontario s personal income (since 1962), corporate income (since 2009) and sales taxes (effective 2010) Common revenue sources Federal Personal income taxes Corporate income taxes Sales taxes Payroll taxes Unique provincial revenue sources Ontario Resource royalties within provincial jurisdiction Gaming, liquor profits Property taxes Unique federal revenue sources Customs import duties Taxes on non-residents Source: Department of Finance Canada 34

36 Ontario compared to U.S. States Credit Ratings Financing Federal Support Public Pensions ONTARIO Ontario is a strong investment grade credit and has a stable ratings outlook. Moody s credit rating relies on joint default analysis which builds in the strong likelihood of federal support. Despite higher debt levels, Ontario credit ratings are stronger than a number of U.S. states Well developed access to international capital markets. Sophisticated debt management practices fixed and floating rate debt, public and private placement. All bonds issued by the Province are General Obligation Bonds Strong federal partner. Federal transfers include health, social and equalization. Transfers account for about 20 per cent of Provincial revenues, and Province has considerable flexibility in how funds are used. Federal transfers more secure - multi-year formula agreements. Canada s Pension Plan is fully funded with total assets of $148 billion at the end of , increasing $20 billion last year. Joint trusteeship for Ontario Teachers Pension Plan and Ontario Public Service Union. Sole sponsor of the Public Service Pension Plans. Ontario's pension plans have net assets of $5.4 billion on a Public Sector Accounting Board accounting basis. On a valuation basis, they have a small unfunded liability with special payments being made over 15 years to fund the shortfall. U.S. STATES Pressure on U.S. rating could negatively affect states. State and local credit ratings under pressure. Moody s - downgrade to upgrade ratio - highest in 3 years. Material differences in fiscal make-up are an important reason why the two are not considered peers by credit rating agencies. Bonds are often tied to certain revenue streams. Issuing General Obligation Bonds may require voter approval or legislative backing. Federal support could be jeopardized by cutbacks which increases uncertainty. U.S. states receive conditional transfers. No federal program aimed explicitly at reducing the disparities in state fiscal capacity. U.S. Social Security Trust Fund has a large unfunded liability. Large unfunded pension liability and growing postemployment liability. Aggressive discount rate assumptions. Governments are raiding pension funds to meet budget pressures. 35

37 Ontario compared to U.S. States Cont d Spending Revenue Balanced Budget ONTARIO Constitutional authority over health and education spending which accounts for close to two-thirds of total program spending. Federal government provides support for health and social spending Ontario s taxation powers is akin to sovereign nations. Unfettered access to broad range of tax base including: personal and corporate income tax, sales, payroll and property taxes. Simple majority of legislature required to raise taxes which gives the province a high degree of fiscal policy flexibility Financial Transparency and Accountability Act requires the government to develop a recovery plan for achieving a balanced budget. Can use fiscal policy as shock absorber in times of economic weakness. Planning assumptions are conservative, prudence and contingency built in. Plan to return to balance by U.S. STATES Health care and education funded by private sector and various levels of government. Dedicated tax structure funds education Limitations under state constitutions to levy and collect taxes vary widely. Voter approval required to raise taxes. Some states require super majority in legislature or even a referendum to raise taxes which severely limits flexibility. Revenue sources include: personal and corporate income tax. Most states collect sales tax and some states collect property taxes. All U.S. states, except Vermont, are prevented from planning for operating deficits, with fiscal restraints generally embedded in state constitutions or other legislation. Fiscal tightening has put strain on weak economy and reduced liquidity. Planning assumptions can be aggressive. Many states have relied on special balances/reserves to meet budget requirements and funds getting depleted. 36

38 Composition of Revenue Plan Revenue $112.2 Billion Highly diversified revenue sources Personal Income Tax $25.8B 23% Federal Payments $21.8B 19% Growth of 2.7 per cent projected for Income from Govt. Enterprises $4.1B 4% Other Non- Tax Revenue $7.6B 7% Corporations Tax $10.8B 10% Sales Tax $21.1B 19% Other Taxes $21.1B 19% Federal payments account for 19 per cent of total revenue Corporate taxes represent 10 per cent of revenue Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding Source: Ministry of Finance. 37

39 Composition of Total Expense Plan Total Expense $126.4 Billion Health Sector $48.4B 38% Education Sector $23.9B 19% Health and education remain the largest expenses Justice Sector $4.0B 3% Postsecondary and Training Sector $7.5B 6% Interest on Debt $10.6B 8% Children's and Social Services Sector $14.1B 11% Other Programs $17.9B 14% Government is taking action to manage growth in expense to overcome the fiscal challenge facing the Province Excludes Teachers Pension Plan Note: Numbers may not add due to rounding Source: Ministry of Finance. 38

40 Ontario Asset Swap Levels U.S. dollar Benchmark Bond Spread to LIBOR (bps) Spread to TSY (bps) ONT 4.1 per cent June ONT 4.5 per cent Feb ONT 2.7 per cent June ONT per cent Sept ONT 4.75 per cent Jan ONT 1.6 per cent Sept ONT 4.95 per cent Nov ONT 3.15 per cent Dec ONT 4.0 per cent Oct ONT 4.4 per cent April ONT 4.1 per cent June Source: Dealer daily run, March 23,

41 Canada s Sound Pension System Canada has a well diversified, public and private pension system. The proportion of Canada s retirement incomes coming from private pensions and other financial assets is one of the highest among OECD countries. Canada is ranked highest for all G7 nations and 5th overall in the latest Mercer Global Pension Index. The Canada Pension Plan is fully funded with total assets of $152.8 billion as at December 31,

42 Mercer Global Pension Index Canada ranks fifth among countries surveyed in the 2011 Mercer Global Pension Index Study. Overall Rankings Source: Australian Centre for Financial Studies (2011), Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index. 41

43 Public Expenditure on Old-Age benefits Per Cent of GDP Source: Pensions at a Glance 2011: Retirement-Income Systems in Organization for Economic Cooperation & Development (OECD)Countries (2011). 42

44 Old-Age Income Poverty Rates In An Ageing Society Per cent of population over 65 years old with incomes below half of the population median New Zealand CANADA Germany France U.K. OECD Japan U.S. Australia Ireland Source: Organization for Economic Co-operation & Development (OECD ) (2011), Pensions at a Glance: Retirement-Income Systems in OECD Countries. 43

45 Sustaining Population Growth through Migration Percentage change in population 1997 to 2009 and contribution of net migration 25 Net migration Natural increase Source: Organization for Economic Co-operation & Development (OECD ). (2011). Factbook 2011: Economic, Environmental and Social Statistics 44

46 Legal Notice This presentation was compiled by the Ontario Financing Authority. This information is intended for general information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of offers to purchase securities. It has not been approved by any securities regulatory authority and it is not sufficient for the purpose of deciding to purchase securities. It may have errors or omissions resulting from electronic conversion, downloading or unauthorized modifications. Statements in this presentation may be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of Such forward-looking statements involve uncertainties, risks, and other factors which could cause the state of Ontario s economy to differ materially from the forecasts and economic outlook contained expressly or implicitly in such statements. The Province of Ontario undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements to reflect new information, future events or otherwise, except as may be required under applicable laws and regulations. While the information in this presentation, when posted or released, was believed to be reliable as of its date, NO WARRANTY IS MADE AS TO THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF THIS DOCUMENT OR THE INFORMATION IT CONTAINS.