Florida & Metro Forecast

Transcription

1 Florida & Metro Forecast Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida Published July 2012

2 About University of Central Florida (UCF) About the College of Business Administration

3 Institute for Economic Competitiveness College of Business Administration University of Central Florida Florida Forecast July 2012 Report Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright 2012 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved. Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Elaine Vogt, Administrative Assistant Alexandra Betrone-Harpst, Researcher Sangitha Palaniappa, Researcher Ashley Miller, Researcher Casey Moore, Researcher Nicholas Simons, Researcher This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitiveness judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.

4 TABLE OF CONTENTS Florida Highlights and Summary Florida Forecast Tables Florida Forecast Charts Table of contents Florida News Summaries...37 Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach Gainesville Jacksonville Lakeland Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach Naples-Marco Island Ocala Orlando-Kissimmee Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent Tallahassee Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater

5 FLORIDA HIGHLIGHTS Highlights of the July 2012 Florida FORECAST Summertime and nothin is easy. At least as far as Florida s economic recovery goes. Job creation in Florida is darkened by the same 50 Shades of Gray that are casting a pall over the national labor market. Payroll job growth year-over-year is expected to average 1.1% in 2012, 1.9% in 2013, 1.8% in 2014 and 2.4% in It will be the 4th quarter of 2016 before payrolls recover to their pre-recession levels. Unemployment will remain obstinately high; it will finally fall below 8% in the fourth quarter of Unemployment rates, while high, will continue a long, slow, decline. The emphasis is still on slow as labor force growth will put a floor beneath the unemployment rate. It will be 2016 Q2 before we see unemployment fall below 7%. The sectors expected to have the strongest average growth rates during are Construction (6.4%); Professional and Business Services (4.1 %); Trade, Transportation & Utilities (3.1 %); Manufacturing (2.0%) and Information (1.8 %). Florida s housing construction sector bottomed out in 2009 and wallowed in that trough for two years. Housing starts will continue their climb this year and begin a slow acceleration in the next. Total starts at an annual rate will be thousand in the 4th quarter of At no point during the 30-year forecast horizon will housing starts climb to more than 74% of the peak levels of starts during the housing boom. The new post housing bubble peak occurs in Real Gross State Product (RGSP) will expand by 1.9% in 2012, and growth will accelerate to 2.6% in 2013, 2.9% in 2014, and 3.8% in Real personal income growth turned positive in 2010 after two years of contraction. From , real personal income growth will average 3.2%, and will peak at 3.8% in Florida s population growth will continue its gradual recovery in 2012 to 1.2% and accelerate over the next several years. By 2015 the growth rate should hit 1.7% as repairs of the damage from the housing and financial crises progress and the Baby Boomer retiree flow are jump-started retail sales should finish much stronger for the year growing 5.7% but ease into 2013 as consumers are still nursing their housing wounds. Retail sales will grow at an average pace of 4.1% during Institute for Economic Competitiveness 5

6 Florida Summary Outlook for Florida Summertime and Nothin is Easy The nation is now in the fourth year of the recovery that followed the Great Recession. Florida is two and a half years into its recovery that began in Being in recovery beats being in recession, but the nature of the recovery nationally and in Florida leaves much to be desired. In the July issue of the U.S. Forecast we discussed the Fifty Shades of Gray underneath which the U.S. economic recovery is unfolding. The gray is both a play on the novel title and metaphor alluding to the clouds of economic policy and other uncertainty that are weighing down on the national economy. Despite being the Sunshine state, this same pall of gray weighs on the recovery in Florida as well. The story of this business cycle in Florida is wellknown and often repeated, but can never be overstated. The once in a lifetime housing boom that fueled the state s economic growth was so pronounced that when it went bust, the fallout was so severe and the damage so profound that we knew recovery was going to be, even under the best of circumstances, daunting. Unfortunately, this recovery is not taking place under the best of circumstances. In fact, our own national economic policies have either failed us or have made the walls of this deep hole that we find ourselves in more slippery and difficult to get a solid foothold, preventing the economy from gaining traction. Sorry, I don t mean to be such a summer bummer. There are, however, continuing signs that we are making some progress in the economic recovery. The unemployment rate has declined from its peak, jobs are being created, albeit sporadically and sparsely, sales tax revenues have been surprisingly to the upside, and there are signs of life in a housing market that has been flat lined for too long. The further you look beyond the summer and into the forecast horizon, the brighter the outlook becomes. Payroll job growth more than doubles from 2011 to Real Gross State Product growth nearly triples over the same time period. Population growth rates increase by nearly 50% from 2011 to 2015 and the housing market makes like Lazarus as housing starts increase by over 350%. Look way out to the end of the 30 year horizon of this month s annual forecast at Florida in 2042 and what you ll see is Florida transformed into a powerful economy. GSP is expected to be nearly $3.4 trillion, or 4.39 times the size of the economy in If the economy were that big today, Florida would be the world s 5th largest economy, behind Germany and ahead of France, Brazil, the UK, and Italy. Payroll jobs in 2042 are expected to number 11.4 million, or 4.2 million more jobs than in The structure of the economy is expected to change as well. The employment shares of Leisure and Hospitality, Government, and Retail Trade all decline by 2.5% or more. The share of Professional and Business Services grows by nearly 12%. Florida s population in 2042 is expected to be 30.6 million. That s 10.7 more Floridians than in I sure hope the jet pack has made it on the scene by then, or I-4 and I-95 will be the 10th layer of Dante s Inferno. Looking ahead to the future of Florida s economy helps disperse the gray that currently hovers over the economy and reveals a sunnier economic future. However, for the approximately 1.58 million Floridians who are unemployed, underemployed, discouraged workers or marginally attached to the labor force it s, in the lyrics of Bananarama, just another cruel, cruel summer. Gross State Product Real Gross State Product (GSP) in Florida, the statelevel analogue to Real GDP, exited from recession and entered a recovery in Growth was modest that year at1.4% and remained modest for 2011, with full year growth coming in at just 1.3%. 6 Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

7 Florida Summary In 2012, we expect the economy to continue to grow at an improved but still subpar rate of 1.9%. The burden of lost housing wealth that Florida s consumers have to overcome is considerably higher than consumers in most states around the nation. Other burdens include persistently higher levels of unemployment and underemployment rates, and insufficient job creation to date. However, as 2012 gives way to 2013 and beyond, the economy will begin to grow more rapidly. Real GDP growth in 2013 is expected to come in at 2.6% after which growth will accelerate to 2.9% in 2014 and 3.8% in Nominal Gross State Product is expected to reach nearly $915.8 billion in 2015, as Florida continues to progress toward becoming a trillion-dollar economy. The state will likely cross that threshold five years from now in Florida s economy is one of the largest in the world and is expected to grow even larger in the years ahead as noted above. Personal Income, Retail Sales, and Auto Sales Personal income growth year-over-year decelerated in the second half of 2011 and into the first half of 2012 in Florida. It increased nearly 5.5% in the 1 st quarter of 2011 and 5.0% in the 2 nd quarter. The deceleration continued in the 2 nd half of the year with growth of 4.4% and 4.1% in the 3 rd and 4 th quarters respectively. In the first half of 2012 growth appears to have stabilized at 3.2%. Looking forward, we expect that growth will accelerate and average 4.4% in the final half of 2012, for a full year average growth rate of 3.8%. In 2013 personal income growth will continue to accelerate and grow at 4.4%, then 5.0% in 2014 and 5.7% in Personal income growth in Florida lagged behind that of the nation as a whole during In 2012, the positions were reversed and Florida outpaces the nation with personal income growth that is an average of 0.6% higher than the nation through Personal income will reach nearly $907 billion in a year that will boast the highest growth since Real disposable income growth, which also has been suppressed by the besieged economy, increased to just 1.4% in 2010, but this was the first growth since The growth rate eased in 2011 to 1.0%, but should see acceleration from here. In 2012, growth should come in at 1.9%, rise to 2.5% in 2013, 2.9% in 2014 and 3.7% in The stock market and bond market have made a strong recovery from the lows of the financial crisis, recovering aggregate financial wealth lost during the financial crisis. Sentiment has turned more bullish the past several years, but the stock market is still not fully back at the pre-recession, pre-crisis highs. The housing market nationally and in Florida has had no such run of luck, and housing prices still seem to be struggling to find a firm and solid bottom. Consumers have little choice when it comes to trying to rebuild their depleted home equity wealth other than to save more of their income and to try to put back together shattered nest eggs. This negative wealth effect will continue to dampen consumer spending in Florida and the U.S. Florida s persistently high unemployment and underemployment will continue to weigh on consumer spending in Florida as well. As the labor market shifts into a mode where private sector job creation shows greater momentum, it will further help lift consumer confidence and spending. A consumer with a job is a consumer who is willing to spend more freely. New hiring and job security for the currently employed, however, will help to unleash even more of the pentup consumer spending that was postponed during the several years of layoffs and other cost cutting measures by businesses. High and volatile oil and gasoline prices impacted Florida s consumers and economy in 2011, and they continue to do so. Gasoline prices pulled back from the $4.00 a gallon mark, a level that, in the spring, many analysts believed would be penetrated this summer. But the decline in prices was partially reversed as soon as fear of military action in the Persian Gulf began once again to mount. Rising gasoline prices impact consumers like a tax that pulls money from their wallet (and thus other sectors of the economy), and into their Institute for Economic Competitiveness 7

8 Florida Summary tanks. They can also suppress consumer confidence, another channel through which high gasoline prices can reduce consumer spending. Despite this energy wildcard, retail sales in Florida will grow at 5.67% in Once the labor market has fully cleared the starting gate, it s still admittedly long path to recovery, retail spending will continue to grow. We expect retail sales to expand an average of 4.5% in The average growth rate of retail sales will be nearly 5.4% during the time frames. Although retail sales growth is not expected to reach the levels experienced during the height of the housing and economic boom, it should continue to help to partially alleviate the budget woes in Tallahassee in 2012 and As the economy continues to grow, consumers pentup demand and replacement needs for automobiles and light trucks continues to be released was the start of a six year period of growth in the number of new passenger car and truck registrations in Florida. Growth will be robust during , averaging nearly 11%. In 2015, registrations will reach 1.34 million, representing a 192% increase from the 2009 nadir, but still not reaching the peak level of registrations during the height of the housing boom. Employment Overall payroll employment in the state grew 1.1% for This was the first year of growth after three long years of payroll contraction. Payroll job growth appears to have taken root in 2011 and growth has continued into These roots are not yet deep enough to inspire that Florida s jobs tree is sturdy. Job growth has been tepid and wobbly in the first half of 2012 but it should gain some momentum in the second half. In 2013 job growth versus a year ago is expected to come in at 1.9%. This year will also mark the first time since 2006 that job growth in Florida exceeds the national rate of job growth. Payroll job growth will hover around this rate in 2014 but will accelerate to 2.4% in The beleaguered Construction sector still has the rest of this year with year over year job losses before it too joins in the labor market s recovery, the final private sector to do so. This sector has been shedding jobs profusely after peaking during the housing boom 384 thousand jobs to date -and it will be six straight years of job losses before the job recovery in the construction sector gets underway. Job growth will return to the Construction sector in the 1 st quarter of Job growth rates are expected to surge from -2.9% in 2012 to 3.7% in 2013, 10.4% in 2014, and to an eye-popping 14.3% in These yearly growth rates yield an average growth rate of 6.1% over These growth rates at first glance appear to be quite large but are being calculated from a dramatically lower base of employment in the sector. By the end of 2015, employment in this sector should be back at levels previously reached in It will be 2031 before employment in the Construction sector returns to its pre-recession, pre-housing crisis peak levels. After the Construction sector s phoenix display, the Professional and Business Services sector will be the state s fastest growing sector through Job growth in this sector is expected to lead the state averaging 4.1% during Job gains have been heaviest in the employment services segment as businesses take this intermediate step to hiring their own employees. By the fourth quarter of 2012 job growth in the sector will be 2.2%. For the full year, 2012 will see job growth at 2.0% and it will accelerate and reach 4.4% in 2013, 4.1% in 2014, and 5.8% in This sector will recover quickly and will get back to pre-recession peak levels of employment before the end of the 3 rd quarter of The Information sector shed jobs through most of 2011 Employment stabilized, but growth has stagnated in 2012 thus far, though it is expected to expand in the 2 nd half of Structural changes in this industry since the bursting of the dot com bubble, fueled by technological evolution in the publishing, news, and telecommunications, have resulted in a long downward trend in the sector. Job growth should return to the Information sector year over year in 2012 and this may mark the beginning of a reversal of that downward trend. Job growth 8 Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

9 Florida Summary will be quite modest in 2012 at 0.6% as the recovery cautiously emerges and averages 1.8% in Not earth shattering growth, but far better than the average growth rate of -4.5% of the preceding 4 years. The sector that generated jobs throughout the recession and that is expected to continue to expand through the end of 2015 is the Health and Education sector. During , employment in this sector is expected to expand at an average rate of 1.7%. Budget woes will likely constrain employment levels on the education side of the sector as schools face significant revenue constraints due to the housing sector s slow convalescence. Healthcare reform continues to be a source of uncertainty but with an aging population and expanded insurance coverage, demand for health services will fuel job growth. Manufacturing employment expanded weakly in Florida in 2011 at 0.8%. Globalization and productivity gains in manufacturing have reduced employment in this sector for the better part of a decade. The sector is emerging from this period of globalization as competitive as it has been in many years, but the longer run trends will continue to put pressure on the sector. We are expecting to see job growth of 1.3% in this sector for the full year in 2012, followed by stronger years of job growth in 2013 and 2014, when manufacturing employment will expand at a rate of 2.4% and 2.8%. For the first time in over two decades, and likely the last time for a decade or more, manufacturing is expected to gain jobs in five consecutive years, as 2015 job growth is expected to be 1.6%. Unemployment Unemployment rates nationally and in Florida remain at persistently high levels, despite the fact that the national recession came to an end in June of 2009 and in Florida it ended in Real Gross State Product has been growing since the 1 st quarter of 2010, but the pace of that growth has been weak and is likely to persist through Average real GSP growth from 2010 through 2012 is expected to be just 1.5%. This level of growth does not rapidly bring down unemployment and it pales in comparison to the rate of growth in the previous recovery. Despite the slow economic recovery, the unemployment rate has been in decline since 2010 Q4, but the magnitude of these declines has been exaggerated by a shrinking labor force, as has been the case with the national rate of unemployment. As that trend reverses itself and discouraged workers reenter the labor force, the task of bringing down the unemployment rate will become an increasingly difficult and protracted proposition. Unemployment, which stood at 8.6% in the 2 nd quarter of 2012, will remain above 8% through the 4 th quarter of Unemployment will continue its slow decline and it will continue to fall through the end of By the end of 2015, unemployment will still be uncomfortably high at 7.4%. Payroll job growth, as it gains momentum beginning in 2013, will trigger the reentry of discouraged workers who had previously abandoned the job search. This source of growth in the labor force, which has not yet fully materialized as Florida s labor force has only recently shown weak growth in 2012, will make the reduction in the unemployment rate a more challenging and prolonged process. These levels of unemployment, although on a downward trend, are still quite high. In fact, we do not expect to see unemployment in Florida fall below 6.0% again until The problem of underemployment and marginally attached workers those who are neither working nor looking for work, but indicate that they want and are available for a job, and have looked for work sometime in the past twelve months and those who have given up searching for a job entirely, is a substantial one, When adding these workers to the top level unemployment figure, this broader measure of unemployment, known as U-6, paints an even grimmer picture of labor markets, and is currently 17.0% through the 2 nd quarter of 2012 in Florida, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Institute for Economic Competitiveness 9

10 July 2012 Florida FORECAST Tables

11 Florida Summary Tables Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) Personal Income (Bil. 2005$) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) Disp. Income (Bil. 2005$) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch) GSP (Bil. 2005$) (%Ch) Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%) Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't State & Local Gov't Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch) Net Migration (thous) (%Ch) Housing Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous) Consumer Prices (%Ch) Institute for Economic Competitiveness 11

12 Florida Summary Tables Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) Personal Income (Bil. 2005$) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) Disp. Income (Bil. 2005$) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch) GSP (Bil. 2005$) (%Ch) Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%) Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't State & Local Gov't Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch) Net Migration (thous) (%Ch) Housing Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous) Consumer Prices (%Ch) Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

13 Florida Summary Tables Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) Personal Income (Bil. 2005$) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) Disp. Income (Bil. 2005$) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch) GSP (Bil. 2005$) (%Ch) Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%) Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't State & Local Gov't Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch) Net Migration (thous) (%Ch) Housing Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous) Consumer Prices (%Ch) Institute for Economic Competitiveness 13

14 Florida Summary Tables Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) Personal Income (Bil. 2005$) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) Disp. Income (Bil. 2005$) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch) GSP (Bil. 2005$) (%Ch) Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%) Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't State & Local Gov't Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch) Net Migration (thous) (%Ch) Housing Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous) Consumer Prices (%Ch) Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

15 Florida Summary Tables Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida* 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) Personal Income (Bil. 2005$) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) Disp. Income (Bil. 2005$) Florida(%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch) GSP (Bil. 2005$) (%Ch) Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%) Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't State & Local Gov't Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch) Net Migration (thous) (%Ch) Housing Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous) Consumer Prices (%Ch) *Quarterly at an annual rate Institute for Economic Competitiveness 15

16 Florida Summary Tables Table 3. Employment Quarterly* 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm Manufacturing Durable Goods Wood Products Computer & Electronics Transportation Equipment Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining Construction Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Information Prof. & Bus. Services Admin. & Support Prof. Sci & Tech Mgmt. of Co Financial Activities Real Estate & Rent Fin. & Insurance Edu. & Health Service Education Services Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government Federal Gov't State & Local Gov't *Quarterly at an annual rate 16 Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

17 Florida Summary Tables Table 4. Employment Annual Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm Manufacturing Durable Goods Wood Products Computer & Electronics Transportation Equipment Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining Construction Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Information Prof. & Bus. Services Admin. & Support Prof. Sci & Tech Mgmt. of Co Financial Activities Real Estate & Rent Fin. & Insurance Edu. & Health Service Education Services Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government Federal Gov't State & Local Gov't Institute for Economic Competitiveness 17

18 Florida Summary Tables Table 4. Employment Annual Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm Manufacturing Durable Goods Wood Products Computer & Electronics Transportation Equipment Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining Construction Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Information Prof. & Bus. Services Admin. & Support Prof. Sci & Tech Mgmt. of Co Financial Activities Real Estate & Rent Fin. & Insurance Edu. & Health Service Education Services Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government Federal Gov't State & Local Gov't Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

19 Florida Summary Tables Table 4. Employment Annual Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm Manufacturing Durable Goods Wood Products Computer & Electronics Transportation Equipment Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining Construction Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Information Prof. & Bus. Services Admin. & Support Prof. Sci & Tech Mgmt. of Co Financial Activities Real Estate & Rent Fin. & Insurance Edu. & Health Service Education Services Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government Federal Gov't State & Local Gov't Institute for Economic Competitiveness 19

20 Florida Summary Tables Table 4. Employment Annual Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm Manufacturing Durable Goods Wood Products Computer & Electronics Transportation Equipment Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining Construction Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Information Prof. & Bus. Services Admin. & Support Prof. Sci & Tech Mgmt. of Co Financial Activities Real Estate & Rent Fin. & Insurance Edu. & Health Service Education Services Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government Federal Gov't State & Local Gov't Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

21 Florida Summary Tables Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly* 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 Billions Current Dollars Personal Income Wages & Salaries Other Labor Income Nonfarm Farm Property Income Transfer Payments Social Insurance Billions 2005 $ Personal Income Wages & Salaries Other Labor Income Nonfarm Farm Property Income Transfer Payments Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations Retail Sales (Billions $) Real Retail Sales (Billions 2005$) *Quarterly at an annual rate Institute for Economic Competitiveness 21

22 Florida Summary Tables Table 6. Personal Income-Annual Billions Current Dollars Personal Income Wages & Salaries Other Labor Income Nonfarm Farm Property Income Transfer Payments Social Insurance Billions 2005 $ Personal Income Wages & Salaries Other Labor Income Nonfarm Farm Property Income Transfer Payments Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations Retail Sales (Billions $) Real Retail Sales (Billions 2005$) Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

23 Florida Summary Tables Table 6. Personal Income-Annual Billions Current Dollars Personal Income Wages & Salaries Other Labor Income Nonfarm Farm Property Income Transfer Payments Social Insurance Billions 2005 $ Personal Income Wages & Salaries Other Labor Income Nonfarm Farm Property Income Transfer Payments Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations Retail Sales (Billions $) Real Retail Sales (Billions 2005$) Institute for Economic Competitiveness 23

24 Florida Summary Tables Table 6. Personal Income-Annual Billions Current Dollars Personal Income Wages & Salaries Other Labor Income Nonfarm Farm Property Income Transfer Payments Social Insurance Billions 2005 $ Personal Income Wages & Salaries Other Labor Income Nonfarm Farm Property Income Transfer Payments Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations Retail Sales (Billions $) Real Retail Sales (Billions 2005$) Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

25 Florida Summary Tables Table 6. Personal Income-Annual Billions Current Dollars Personal Income Wages & Salaries Other Labor Income Nonfarm Farm Property Income Transfer Payments Social Insurance Billions 2005 $ Personal Income Wages & Salaries Other Labor Income Nonfarm Farm Property Income Transfer Payments Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations Retail Sales (Billions $) Real Retail Sales (Billions 2005$) Institute for Economic Competitiveness 25

26 July 2012 Florida FORECAST CHARTS

27 Florida Charts 12.0% Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate (percent) 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate Florida Construction Employment (Thousands) Institute for Economic Competitiveness 27

28 Florida Charts 6% Florida Consumer Price Index (% change year ago) 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% FL CPI Florida Education & Health Services Employment (Thousands) Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

29 Florida Charts Florida Financial Activities Employment (Thousands) Florida Federal Government Employment (Thousands) Institute for Economic Competitiveness 29

30 Florida Charts Florida Financial Activities Employment (Thousands) % Florida Gross State Product (percent ch. year ago) 11% 7% 2% -2% -6% FL Gross State Product Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

31 Florida Charts Florida Housing Starts (Thousands) Total Private Housing Starts Florida Leisure & Hospitality Employment (Thousands) Institute for Economic Competitiveness 31

32 Florida Charts Florida Manufacturing Employment (Thousands) % New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations (percent ch. year ago) 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

33 Florida Charts 9% Florida Personal Income (percent ch. year ago) 4% -1% -5% -10% Florida Professional & Business Services Employment (Thousands) Institute for Economic Competitiveness 33

34 Florida Charts 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% Florida Real Gross State Product (percent ch. year ago) -8% Florida State & Local Government Employment (Thousands) Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

35 Florida Charts Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment (Thousands) % 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% Florida Unemployment Rate (percent) 0.0% Unemployment Rate Florida Population (Thousands) Institute for Economic Competitiveness 35

36 Florida News Summaries Board votes to increase Florida universities tuition Florida s Board of Governors voted to allows state universities to increase tuition, making the determinations on a school by school basis. Tuition for students will rise between nine and fifteen percent in the fall depending on the university. Six of eleven increase requests by schools were granted in full, while the rest of the requests were reduced by one to three percentage points. Governor Rick Scott spoke out against the tuition hikes, citing a 71% increase in tuition over the past four years. The universities won increases in the end, however, based on the argument that it was necessary to partly offset the $300 million budget cut that Scott and the State Legislature ordered for the State University System. Source: CBS Miami, June 21, 2012 Delayed payments can take a big toll on small businesses Small businesses are being hit in this economy by larger firms delaying payments on invoices, sometimes leading to the small firms being unable to pay their bills. According to financial analytics firm Sageworks, businesses this year are waiting an average of 29.2 days for payments after they issue an invoice, up 27 percent from the average of 22.8 days just three years ago. The National Federation of Independent Business found in a survey last year that 64 percent of 850 small businesses polled reported waited at least 60 days to have some invoices paid. About 20 percent said the delinquencies were getting worse. Source: Tampa Bay Times, June 17, 2012 Silver Airways offers new flights connecting Tampa and Jacksonville Beginning August 13th, Fort Lauderdale-based Silver Airways will offer daily 65-minute flights linking Tampa and Jacksonville. The flights will depart three times a day on weekdays and twice a day on weekends. Fares will starts at $39 each way. Source: Tampa Bay Times, May 30, 2012 In Florida s tough economy, worker discrimination complaints abound In 2011, Floridians filed 8,088 private sector complaints of workplace discrimination, harassment, and retaliation with the U.S. Equal Opportunity Employment Commission, being second in the nation for the third year in a row. States such as California and New York have fewer EEOC complaints filed because they have more extensive laws regarding workplace protection than Florida. Phyllis Towzey, a St. Petersburg labor and employment attorney, attributes the uptick in claims to be simply economics, citing the fact that many companies are being forced by the economy to lay off workers, who subsequently look for the reason as to why they were let go. Source: Tampa Bay Times, May 27, 2012 Florida grabs a chunk of foreclosure settlement money for state budget $33.4 million of the money Florida will receive in a multibillion mortgage settlement will go towards boosting the state s budget. Florida is receiving $8.4 billion in total, with $334 million in cash payments. The 10% being directed toward the general budget is done in the form of a civil penalty. States that are receiving funds are using it for a variety of purposes, such as sending the money directly to victims of mortgage fraud, incentivizing business ventures, and plugging budget gaps. Attorney General Pam Bondi, who negotiated the settlement on behalf of Florida, is receiving public comments on where the rest of the $300 million cash payment should go. Source: Tampa Bay Times, May 28, 2012 Florida credit unions surpass $45 billion in assets In the second quarter of 2012, Florida credit unions added 48,000 new members. Florida credit unions have now made two records with 4.65 million members statewide and $45.3 billion in assets. The League of Southeastern Credit Unions attributes the growth in Florida, as well as neighbor Alabama, to consumer backlash against banking fees. Source: Tampa Bay Times, June 7, 2012 Citizens Insurance rattled by continuing rate increase complaints State insurance regulators have a number of options to depopulate state-backed Citizens Insurance and increase rates to make them more actuarially sound and in line with private insurers as members of a company committee formulate 2013 premiums. To cover potential losses, new coastal businesses would have to see their policy premiums rise by 41.7%, and non-coastal premiums in force at the end of 2010 would have to rise by 24%. Obstacles include statutes dictating policy increases of no more than 10% each year and opposition arguing that the higher rates would cripple the building industry. Source: NorthEscambia.com, May 18, Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

37 Florida FORECAST July 2012 metros

38 Deltona Daytona Beach Ormond Beach Profiles The Deltona Daytona Ormond Beach MSA is comprised only of Volusia County. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500. Quick Facts: Population estimate of 494,593 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). A civilian labor force of 246,763 in April of 2012 (Florida Regional Economic Database). An unemployment rate of 8.6% not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 21,312 unemployed people (Florida Regional Economic Database). Top Area Employers: Volusia County Schools 8,080 Florida Hospital (All Divisions) 4,248 Halifax Medical Center 3,957 Volusia County Government 3,280 Publix 2,486 State of Florida 2,361 Daytona State College 1,797 U.S. Government 1,422 Embry Riddle Aeronautical University 1,176 Source: Volusia County Department of Economic Development and Enterprise Florida Outlook Summaries The Deltona Daytona Ormond Beach Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators measured in this forecast. Personal income is expected to average 4.6 percent growth, while the per capita income level will be Average annual wage will be the second lowest level of the studied areas at Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.8 percent. Population growth will be second lowest among the studied metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) at 1.0 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 13, (Mill). The employment growth rate is expected to average 1.3 percent each year. Unemployment will average 9.0 percent, the third highest of the twelve MSAs. The Deltona MSA will experience the most growth in the Construction and Mining sector, with an average growth rate of 6.2 percent annually. The Professional and Business Services sector will see the second highest growth in the Deltona MSA at 3.2 percent annually. The Information sector follows with an annual growth rate of 2.3 percent. The only sector that will experience a decline is the Federal Government sector, at -4.7 percent. Metro News Summaries Cuts, fewer teachers force Volusia, Flagler schools to adapt Local schools have lost hundreds of teachers over the past five years. Volusia and Flagler counties have reduced their ranks by more than 800 full-time instructional staff members which include teachers, counselors and media specialists since fall Many teachers have been forced to switch to multi-grade instruction, where they must create multiple curriculums and teach them to more students. There are also fewer students in Volusia, which has seen enrollment drop by more than 4,000 students since Flagler, though, lost more than 100 teachers but gained nearly Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

39 Deltona Daytona Beach Ormond Beach students, according to Florida Department of Education data, which includes traditional and charter public schools. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, April 27, 2012 Deltona officials deny plan to annex Osteen Since being founded in 1995, Deltona has annexed 45 other towns, causing its population to grow from about 56,000 to more than 80,000 Deltona officials have explained that state law prevents cities from annexing any lands except those in which a contiguous landowner asks to join. Despite that, Osteen residents remain skeptical of Deltona, and say they fear new taxes, a changing character in their community, and the crime that comes with big cities. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, April 30, 2012 New Smyrna OKs expansion of downtown arts district The Planning and Zoning Board on Monday unanimously recommended establishing a new district designed to encourage more arts-related businesses downtown. Under the arts overlay district, businesses such as bakeries, cafes, coffee shops, art galleries, restaurants, theaters and other stores and services associated with the visual, cultural, literary, decorative or culinary arts could receive certain exemptions or incentives. Home-based businesses allowed in the arts overlay would be permitted to put up signs, which cannot exceed 10 square feet or be lit. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, May 8, 2012 Halifax to tear down Atlantic Medical Center Halifax Health plans to demolish the old Atlantic Medical Center, an empty complex that is costing the hospital system $230,000 per year to maintain. Bill Griffin, director of system research and planning for Halifax Health, said the cost of renovating the 1970s-era Atlantic Medical Center far outweighed the cost of demolition. The complex has been empty for the past eight months, he said. Making the land development-ready, including reducing the potential environmental impacts, is expected to cost about $2.1 million. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, May 8, 2012 Institute for Economic Competitiveness 39

40 Deltona Daytona Beach Ormond Beach Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government % 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate (percent) Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment (Thousands) Deltona Payroll Employment Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $) Real Gross Metro Product Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income (percent change year ago) 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% Real Personal Income 40 Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

41 Deltona Daytona Beach Ormond Beach Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL July 2012 Forecast 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 41

42 Deltona Daytona Beach Ormond Beach Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

43 Deltona Daytona Beach Ormond Beach Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 43

44 Deltona Daytona Beach Ormond Beach Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

45 Deltona Daytona Beach Ormond Beach Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 45

46 Gainesville Profiles The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist Counties and is located in the centralnorth portion of the state. This Metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida s official natural history museum. Quick Facts: Metro population estimate of 266,369 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). Alachua County population estimate of 247,418 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). Gilchrist County population estimate of 17,004 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). A civilian labor force of 137,753 in April 2012 for the Metro area (Florida Department of Economic Opportunity). An unemployment rate of 6.3% not seasonally adjusted for the entire Metro. This amounts to 8,691 unemployed people (Florida Department of Economic Opportunity). Top Area Employers: University of Florida 14,723 employees Shands HealthCare 12,588 employees Malcom Randall VA Medical Center 4,317 employees Alachua County School Board 4,299 employees City of Gainesville 2,200 employees Publix Super Markets, Inc. 2,056 employees North Florida Regional Medical Center 1,700 employees Nationwide Insurance 1,300 employees Alachua County Government 1,120 employees Santa Fe Community College employees Source: City of Gainesville, 2011 Outlook Summaries The Gainesville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA is expected to show relatively low growth in most of the economic indicators measured in this forecast. Personal income growth will see a 3.8 percent growth, the lowest of the MSAs studied. Per capita income level is expected to average Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.9 percent, while the average annual wage level will be at Population growth will average the lowest of the studied areas at 1.0 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be the second lowest of the studied MSAs at a level of 8, (Mill). Gainesville will see an employment growth rate of 0.7 percent annually. The Gainesville MSA will maintain the lowest unemployment rate of the twelve studied, at 6.4 percent. The fastest growing sector in the area will be the Construction and Mining sector, with an average growth rate of 5.1 percent annually. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector with an average annual growth rate of 3.7 percent. State and Local Government, and Federal Government sectors will experience a decline, with annual growth rates of -0.2 and -3.3 respectively. Metro News Summaries Mayor Lowe talks up Gainesville in Washington, D.C. On April 18, there was a roundtable discussion which was named, Perspectives from the Entrepreneurial Ecosystem: Creating Jobs and Growing Businesses through Entrepreneurship. Lowe s role was informing the group on how local governments can foster growth for entrepreneurs. He shared how UF was part of a joint effort with Innovation Hub and Innovation Square. His ideas may later be included in later legislation. Source: Gainesville.com, April 18, Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

47 Gainesville Poppell continues to innovate Ed Poppell has a distinguished history in Gainesville. He has developed University of Florida East Campus, and continues to enhance Gainesville. His current project is developing an area of Innovation Square to appeal to a software development company. The company requested a space for 400 employees. He has already created Innovation Hub, which is a business incubator. He has more plans for the area, including a technology center (now under construction), a dorm, restaurant, retail space, and more office/ lab space. Source: Gainesville.com, April 29, 2012 Alachua Co. crime dropped in 2011, but crime rate went up The figure of Alachua County serious violent and property crimes decreased by 2.4 percent from 2010 to 2011, however the crime rate increased by 0.9 percent. According to 2010 s numbers, Alachua County had the 12th highest crime rate in the state, but that rate went from 4,210.5 crimes per 100,000 residents in 2010 to 4,249.7 last year as the population dropped from 255,692 in 2010 to 247,337 in Violent crimes were down 3.7%. Source: Gainesville.com, April 30, 2012 Further water restriction coming for Suwannee district Severe droughts and human consumption has depleted much of the fresh water sources in Gainesville. The Santa Fe River and Poe Springs are virtually stagnant. One of the restrictions is the reduction of lawn irrigation from twice a week to once a week. The restrictions are mandatory. There will also be restrictions on farmers and commercial properties. These are some of the toughest restrictions to date. The water management district wants everyone from large-scale farmers to homeowners to revisit how they use water. Source: Gainesville.com, May 29, 2012 UF president to retire by end of 2013, search to start next month President Bernie Machen told the UF Board of Trustees that he would like to retire by the end of The exact end date depends on his successor. The search for a new president is likely to take six months to a year. Machen will have been at UF for nearly a decade. His contract, which was extended last year, allows him to remain at UF. The contract establishes a post-presidency role for him, if he cares to stay. Source: Gainesville.com, June 8, 2012 Lane Ranger: No money available to widen CR 234 A recent citizen wrote in to inform the local government about the condition of County Road 234. He said that the road gets a lot of traffic, many of which are in violation of a weight limit. He said the road is dangerously narrow, especially for school busses. The mile portion of the road is listed as 99th on projects needed funding if voters agree on a sales tax for road maintenance. It would cost $3M to repair. Source: Gainesville.com, June 10, 2012 Institute for Economic Competitiveness 47

48 Gainesville Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government % 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate (percent) 0.0% FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $) Real Gross Metro Product Gainesville Payroll Employment (Thousands) 15.0% Gainesville Real Personal Income (percent change year ago) % % % % Gainesville Payroll Employment -10.0% Real Personal Income 48 Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

49 Gainesville Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL July 2012 Forecast 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 49

50 Gainesville Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

51 Gainesville Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 51

52 Gainesville Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

53 Gainesville Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 53

54 Jacksonville Profiles The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport. Quick Facts: Metro population estimate of 1,360,251 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). Baker County population estimate of 27,154 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). Clay County population estimate of 192,370 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). Duval County population estimate of 870,709 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). Nassau County population estimate of 74,195 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). St. Johns County population estimate of 195,823 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). A civilian labor force of 690,295 in April of 2012 for the Metro area (Florida Regional Economic Database). An unemployment rate of 7.9% not seasonally adjusted for the entire Metro in April of This amounts to 54,534 unemployed people (Florida Regional Economic Database). Top Area Employers: Naval Air Station Jacksonville 25,240 Duval County Public Schools 14,480 Naval Station Mayport 12,670 City of Jacksonville 8,820 Baptist Health Systems 8,270 Bank of America Merrill Lynch 6,400 Blue Cross & Blue Shield of Florida 6,000 Citibank (Citi-cards) 5,000 Mayo Clinic 4,970 United Parcel Service 4,100 Source: Duval County Public Schools - City of Jacksonville and Chamber of Commerce Records Outlook Summaries The Jacksonville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see strong growth in most of the economic indicators, relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income will see an average growth rate of 5.0 percent, the third highest of the twelve MSAs. The per capita income level will also be the third highest at Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.9 percent, while average annual wage is expected to be at a level of Population growth will be moderate at an average annual rate of 1.5 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 58, (Mill). Employment growth is expected to be 2.0 percent annually. Unemployment will average 7.8 percent in the MSA. The fastest growing sector in the Jacksonville MSA will be Construction and Mining, which will see an average annual growth rate of 6.1 percent. Following that sector is the Professional and Business Services sector, with an annual growth rate of 4.0 percent, and then the Trade, Transportation, and Utilities sector with a 2.2 percent growth rate. The State and Local Government and the Federal Government sectors will experience a decline of -0.1 and -1.9 percent, respectively. Metro News Summaries Outsourcing Company Alorica to lay off 289 in Palatka Alorica, a customer management and outsourcing company, is closing its Palataka facility and laying off all 289 employees. A company spokeswoman described the layoffs as a result of their clients changing business requirements. The Chino, California based company s 40 domestic near shore and offshore management centers, include seven others in Florida. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, April 30, Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

55 Jacksonville EverBank files IPO Jacksonville-based EverBank Financial Corp, the largest bank in the state, became a publicly traded company on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol EVER. The initial public offering included 19.2 million shares at $10 per share. EverBank directors and executive officers will retain 41.06% of the bank s common shares. The bank remains one of the strongest in NE Florida, and expects a net income between $10 million and $13 million for Q1 2012, compared to $9.4 million Q Total assets are expected to increase from $11.8 billion Q to $13.8 billion Q Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, May 2, 2012 Mile Point heads to Congress The Mile Point project will head to Congress after securing all necessary signatures on the Army Corps of Engineers Chief of Engineers Report. The project plans to alleviate crosscurrents from the Mile Point shore, which currently poses as an obstacle to port growth by preventing large ships from docking nearly 2/3 of days. The project is currently in the design phase, and is expected to be completed by April Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, May 3, 2012 The new $16.7 million primary care center is to be built near the intersection of Interstate 294 East Beltway and Gate Parkway, and will open in Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, May 25, 2012 Disney to use Jacksonville Port to ship to Orlando Parks On June 19, Walt Disney Parks and Resorts began using Jacksonville s port to ship merchandise to its Central Florida Theme Parks. The port will handle 75% of the merchandise, which had previously been routed through Savannah, Georgia. The Disney goods will represent less than 1% of Jacksonville business, but Governor Scott believes it demonstrates Florida s ports can handle a larger share of cargo bound for Florida-based businesses. Source: The Florida Times Union, June 19, 2012 Mayo Clinic investing $100M to accommodate growth Mayo Clinic Florida plans to invest nearly $100 million to add on to the existing hospital and develop a new primary care center. An $80 million hospital expansion will add two floors and 90 beds, allowing the nearly 100% occupied building to grow for the next five years. Institute for Economic Competitiveness 55

56 Jacksonville Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% Total Nonagricultural Employment Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate (percent) Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government 2.0% FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $) Real Gross Metro Product Jacksonville Payroll Employment (Thousands) 10.0% Jacksonville Real Personal Income (percent change year ago) % % % Jacksonville Payroll Employment -10.0% Real Personal Income 56 Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

57 Jacksonville Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL July 2012 Forecast 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 57

58 Jacksonville Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

59 Jacksonville Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 59

60 Jacksonville Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

61 Jacksonville Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 61

62 Lakeland Profiles The Lakeland MSA is comprised only of Polk County. It is located in the western-center of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus. It is home to a few attractions such as Fantasy of Flight and Legoland Florida. Also, the Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Indians conduct spring training in Lakeland and Winter Haven, respectively. Quick Facts: Population estimate of 609,492 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). A civilian labor force of 270,500 in April of 2012 (Florida Regional Economic Database). An unemployment rate of 9.1% not seasonally adjusted in April of This amounts to 24,616 unemployed people (Florida Regional Economic Database). Top Area Employers: Publix Super Markets, Inc. 6,644 Lakeland Regional Medical Center 4,540 City of Lakeland 2,600 GEICO 2,005 Watson Clinic 1,600 GC Services 1,000 Rooms To Go 900 Watkins Motor Lines 848 Summit Consulting 654 Saddle Creek Corporation 625 Source: Lakeland Economic Development Council Outlook Summaries The Lakeland Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show relatively low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 4.7 percent annually, while the per capita income level will be at 29.9, the lowest of the twelve MSAs. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.7 percent, and the average annual wage level is expected to be at 43.0, the third lowest of the studied areas. Population growth is expected to average 1.5 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 17, (Mill). Employment growth is expected to be 1.4 percent annually. The unemployment rate for the metro will average 9.3 percent, the second highest of the twelve forecasted MSAs. The Construction and Mining sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 5.7 percent average annual growth. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector averaging a growth rate of 3.5 percent a year. State and Local Government, Financial, and Federal Government sectors will experience a decline, with an annual growth rate of -0.2 percent, -0.8 percent, and -4.0 percent respectively. Metro News Summaries Winter Haven commissioner proposes expedited permits for smaller developments In an effort to increase economic development incentives, Winter Haven officials proposed shortening the process of receiving city permits for future small developments. The plan cuts the review and approval process from 15 days to 10, according to Community and Economic Development Director David Dickey. The city hopes to include state permitting industries in the expedited process. The process will only be extended to the industries identified in a report by Angelou Economics as Winter Haven s sweet spot. 62 Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

63 Lakeland These are medical services, software, and information technologies, logistics and distribution, tourism, agribusiness, and business and professional services. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, April 23, 2012 Publix slips in Fortune 500 ranking World Fuel Services Corp. beat out Publix Super Markets Inc. for the designation as top Fortune 500 Company in Florida. Lakeland-based Publix ranks 106 overall on the list with $27.2 billion in revenue. The firm is privately owned by thousands of employee shareholders. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, May 7, 2012 Sykes Enterprises CEO: 600 jobs coming to Lakeland Sykes Enterprises announced plans to add a new customer service call center that will add 600 new jobs to Lakeland. The 92,000-square-foot facility will be located at the former FedEx National LTL facility, and will begin operations in the third quarter. The firm chose Lakeland for the expansion because of its sizable untapped labor pool for customer service work. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, May 30, 2012 None of the city s seven commissioners have voiced support for selling the utility, but all support a move to let voters make a decision on a charter change. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, June 23, 2012 USF preparing phase-out of Lakeland operation USF Lakeland campus is in the final stages of switching to the new 12th state University, Florida Polytechnic University. The change will affect 62 faculty members and 80 employees of the Lakeland campus. Most were offered one-year positions in similar role at the joint-use campus USF shares with Polk State College. USF Lakeland will turn its budget over to FPU and transfer property and equipment. Source: The Lakeland Ledger, June 28, 2012 Businessmen, officials to meet on potential sale of Lakeland Electric Steve Scruggs, executive director of the Lakeland Economic Development Council, and Steve Barnett, vice chairman of Publix Super Markets Inc., have scheduled a second-round of private meetings with city commissioners and the mayor. Scruggs and Barnett want to reduce the 66% of voter approval required by the city s charter to sell a public utility. This comes after large electric companies TECO and FLP have inquired about the potential sale of Lakeland Electric. Institute for Economic Competitiveness 63

64 Lakeland Lakeland MSA Industry Location Quotients 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate (percent) 2.0% FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $) Real Gross Metro Product Lakeland Payroll Employment (Thousands) Lakeland Payroll Employment 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Lakeland Real Personal Income (percent change year ago) -6.0% Real Personal Income 64 Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

65 Lakeland Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland, FL July 2012 Forecast 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 65

66 Lakeland Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

67 Lakeland Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 67

68 Lakeland Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

69 Lakeland Annual Outlook for Lakeland, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 69

70 Miami Fort Lauderdale Pompano Beach Profiles The Miami Fort Lauderdale Pompano Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, this area is home to many sports teams, such as the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins and the Florida Panthers. Other major businesses also reside in this Metro, including the Miami Seaquarium, the University of Miami, and Florida International University. QUICK FACTS: Metro area population estimate of 5,670,125 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,554,766 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). Broward County population estimate of 1,780,172 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,335,187 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). A civilian labor force of 2,881,418 as of April 2012 for the entire Metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database). An unemployment rate of 8.3% as of April 2012, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 237,916 unemployed people for the entire Metro area (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: Miami-Dade County Public School 48,571 Miami-Dade County 29,000 Federal Government 19,500 Florida State Government 17,100 University of Miami 16,000 Baptist Health South Florida 13,376 Jackson Health System 12,571 Publix Super Markets 10,800 American Airlines 9,000 Florida International University 8,000 Miami-Dade College 6,200 Source: The Beacon Council Outlook Summaries The Miami Fort Lauderdale Pompano Beach Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) area is expected to show strong growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow 4.6 percent annually, and the per capita income level, at 39, is the second highest in the areas studied. Average annual wage growth will be at 2.8 percent. The average annual wage level is expected to be 53.9, the highest of the studied MSAs. Miami is expected to average a population growth of 1.4 percent each year. The area has the highest Gross Metro Product at a level of 254, (Mill). Employment is expected to grow at an average rate of 1.8 percent each year, while unemployment is expected to be 8.2 percent. Miami s fastest growing sector is expected to be the Construction and Mining sector at 6.4 percent annually, followed by the Professional and Business Services sector at 4.0 percent each year and Education and Health Services sector at 1.9 percent. State and Local Government and the Federal Government sectors are expected to decline with annual growth rate of -0.3 percent and -2.3 percent. Metro News Summaries Used cooking oil turns to biodiesel in South Florida The largest biodiesel plant for the tri-county area is being built now and costs approximately $4 million. Suppliers of cooking oil, such as restaurants at the Miami International airport will give the biodiesel plant the used cooking oil in order to convert it to biodiesel. Greenwave biodiesel of Fort Lauderdale already supplies South Florida with 3.6 million gallons per year. The biodiesel from these plants will supply fuel for trucks and buses in the tri-county area. Source: Sun-Sentinel, April 8, Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

71 Miami Fort Lauderdale Pompano Beach Bayview Center for mental health warns of 58 Pembroke Pines layoffs The Bayview Center is a company that provides mental health care as well as substance abuse help. The center filed various notices to the state of Florida in order to warn about 58 layoffs at the center. The company also filed three Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification notices. The layoffs and changes are most likely due to the fact that the Bayview Center lost its contract with South Florida Behavioral Network. The South Florida Behavioral Network has a large contract with the Florida Department of Children and Families in the Miami-Dade County. Source: South Florida Business Journal, June 1, 2012 Boynton Beach police need $10 million radio system upgrade The city of Boynton Beach is trying to decide if they should keep their police forces or shut them down because of high costs and instead contract officers from the Palm-Beach County Sheriff s office. Some from the city agree that the most economical choice is to shut down the Boynton Beach police and contract officers. The Palm- Beach County Sheriff s office already has the radio system upgrade that the Boynton Beach police are in need of now. The city is not sure how they would pay for the $10 million radio system upgrade for the police force. Some of the money will come from grants, but the rest may come from tax hikes for the Boynton Beach citizens. Source: Sun-Sentinel, June 1, 2012 FAU plans to close down Fort Lauderdale Campus Florida Atlantic University, a public university, will see a $26.7 million budget cut for the academic year mainly due to Florida legislature cuts. The downtown Fort Lauderdale campus has about 547 students that would move to either the Boca or Davie campus if this budget proposal goes through. The closure would be enacted by June FAU believes this cut could save the school approximately $1.9 million. Some degree programs at FAU may also be eliminated including German and Human Resources. Source: South Florida Business Journal, April 24, 2012 Mortgage Firm to bring 150 jobs to Boca Digital Risk is a company that decides banks risk on mortgage loan refinancing. The company has 1,400 employees across the nation. The company is opening an office in Boca Raton that will hire 150 people in the first three months. Digital Risk says that they chose Boca Raton as the site for the office because the Workforce Alliance, the county employment office in Boca, proved that there is a sufficient amount of qualified workers and mortgage processers in the area. Source: Sun-Sentinel, June 6, 2012 FEC, Port Everglades, PortMiami making big upgrades The Florida East Coast Railway line used to transport freight from Hialeah to PortMiami until Hurricane Wilma damaged a section in The FEC hopes to recreate the connection and include an upgrade as well. They would like to make a loading area for freighters that would allow them to transfer freight directly onto the rail. PortMiami is developing a strategy to attract ships from the Panama Canal reconstruction that will be complete in The reconstruction of the damaged section is a part of PortMiami s plan. Source: South Florida Business Journal, May 25, 2012 Institute for Economic Competitiveness 71

72 Miami Fort Lauderdale Pompano Beach Miami - Fort Lauderdale - Pompano Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government % 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% FL Unemployment Rate Miami Unemployment Rate Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate (percent) Miami Payroll Employment (Thousands) Miami Payroll Employment Miami Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $) Real Gross Metro Product 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% Miami Real Personal Income (percent change year ago) -10.0% Real Personal Income 72 Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

73 Miami Fort Lauderdale Pompano Beach Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL July 2012 Forecast 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 73

74 Miami Fort Lauderdale Pompano Beach Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

75 Miami Fort Lauderdale Pompano Beach Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 75

76 Miami Fort Lauderdale Pompano Beach Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

77 Miami Fort Lauderdale Pompano Beach Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach (MD), FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 77

78 Naples Marco Island Profiles The Naples Marco Island MSA is comprised of Collier County only. Located on the southwest coast of Florida it is notable for numerous recreation and leisure activities. This region is sometimes referred to as the Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida. It is the largest county in Florida, geographically. Quick Facts: Population estimate of 328,134 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). A civilian labor force of 151,357 in April 2012 (U.S. Census Bureau). An unemployment rate of 7.4% not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 11,255 unemployed people (U.S. Census Bureau). Top Area Employers: Naples Community Hospital 4,000 The Ritz-Carlton, Naples 1,100 Gargiulo, Inc. 1,100 Arthrex, Inc 1,056 Collier County Sheriff s Office 1,029 Hometown Inspection Svc. 900 Publix 800 Marriott 700 Naples Grande Beach Resort 760 Downing Frye Realty 550 Golf Bay Group Co. 500 Source: Collier Business & Economic Development Outlook Summaries The Naples Marco Island is expected to show strong growth in the economic indicators. The metro area will show the highest personal income growth among the studied metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) at 5.8 percent. Per capita income level, which is expected to be 55.1, is also the highest of the MSAs. Average annual wage will be at a level of The average annual wage is expected to grow at a rate of 3.0 percent, the highest of the twelve MSAs. Population growth will average 2.2 percent, the highest in the studied areas and the Gross Metro Product level will be 13, (Mill). Employment growth is expected to average 2.9 percent each year, the highest of the MSAs. The metro will see an unemployment rate of 8.7 percent. The Professional and Business Services sector represents Naples fastest growing sector, growing at a rate of 5.6 percent each year. The Construction and Mining sector follows with a growth rate of 4.8 percent. The Federal Government sector is the only sector expected to decline at -1.3 percent annually. Metro News Summaries Lighthouse Project: Our Future, Our Choices: Development, nature and wildlife co-exist in the future Ave Maria is predicted to have 20,000 residents in This community will be bordering a preserve with bears and cougars. Officials are trying their hardest to ensure preservation and redevelopments go hand in hand. Collier County is predicted to have 400,000 residents in about 10 years. Many of the eastern Collier areas such as Ave Maria, Big Cypress, and Orangetree will develop grocery stores, pharmacies and retail centers to increase the quality of life in Collier County. Source: Naples News, April 29, Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

79 Naples Marco Island Collier tourism bucket list ads will target Florida s east coast Advertisements featuring champagne buckets and sand pails splash Florida s billboards. Sponsored by the county s four percent tax charged by hotels and other vacation rental agencies, the billboards were meant to target both adults and traveling families. They also advertise fiscal-friendly vacations during the slower summer months. Paradise Advertising and Marketing Inc. created the billboards and other advertising devices with a budget of $475,000. Online advertisements will appear on tripadvisor.com, orbitz.com, and weather.com. Source: Naples News, May 7, 2012 Commissioners to look again at Marco beach renourishment Commissioners voted unanimously to take up Collier County Commissioner Tom Henning on his suggestion to revisit Marco Island beach renourishment. The $3 million project was said to be put to better use on mainland beaches which suffer from worse erosion. There is a $31M price tag for supplementing sand and controlling erosion on mainland beaches. The county projects it will have only $16.5 million and seeks to cut costs and acquire government funds to bridge the gap. Source: Naples News, May 8, 2012 Just last year, Collier schools cut $15M and 65 positions. The recommended budget cuts include reducing each schools budget; reducing central office budgets; reorganizing technology department; decreasing central office positions and many more. Source: Naples News, May 8, 2012 Collier commissioner wants Immokalee voters to decide fate of master plan Commissioner Jim Coletta cancelled a public hearing to decide on the Immokalee Area master plan. He thinks that the amendment would be better off if it is on the August primary ballot. This would allow Immokalee voters to approve or deny the plan. The Immokalee community Redevelopment Agency decided to hold a special public meeting on June 18. After this, the Commissioner petitioned to get the amendment on the ballot. The plan sets the stage for action: changing land use and building codes; applying for funding; setting design standards; improving housing; and attracting new business. Source: Immokalee Today and Naples News, June 11, 2012 Collier Schools to present budget, job cuts at regular meeting today The Collier School district will recognize $16.5 million in budget reductions, including eliminating 100 positions. The superintendent said that the employees in the instructional positions will be offered another job in their certification area. Institute for Economic Competitiveness 79

80 Naples Marco Island Naples - Marco Island MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government % 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% FL Unemployment Rate Naples Unemployment Rate Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate (percent) Naples Payroll Employment (Thousands) Naples Payroll Employment Naples Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $) Real Gross Metro Product 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% Naples Real Personal Income (percent change year ago) -20.0% Real Personal Income 80 Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

81 Naples Marco Island Quarterly Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL July 2012 Forecast 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 81

82 Naples Marco Island Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

83 Naples Marco Island Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 83

84 Naples Marco Island Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

85 Naples Marco Island Annual Outlook for Naples-Marco Island, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 85

86 Ocala Profiles Comprised of Marion County only, the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area and is in the center of the state. The second largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area. Quick Facts: Population estimate of 331,298 as of 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau). A civilian labor force of 131,340 in December of 2006 (Florida Department of Economic Opportunity). An unemployment rate of 9.7% not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 118,600 unemployed people (Florida Department of Economic Opportunity). Top Area Employers: Marion County School Board 6,071 State of Florida (all departments) 2,600 Munroe Regional Medical Center 2,648 Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. 2,370 Ocala Regional Medical Center & West Marion Community Hospital 1,725 Publix Super Markets, Inc. 1,488 Marion County Board of County Commissioners 1,462 Emergency One, Inc. 1,274 AT&T 1,000 City of Ocala 994 Source: Ocala/Marion Economic Development Council Outlook Summaries The Ocala Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show varying strengths and weaknesses in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 5.3 percent annually, the second highest of the twelve metros. Per capita income level is the second lowest of the twelve metros at Relative to other metro areas, Ocala will have the lowest average annual wage level at Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.0 percent, the second highest of the MSAs. The metro has an expected annual population growth of 1.7 percent. The Gross Metro Product is expected to be 6, (Mill), the lowest in the studied areas. Employment growth is expected to average a rate of 2.1 percent annually. The unemployment rate is estimated to be 10.3 percent, the highest of the researched areas. The Construction and Mining sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in Ocala, averaging an annual growth rate of 6.2 percent. The Professional and Business Services sector follows with a growth rate of 4.7 percent. The third ranked is the Information sector at 2.7 percent. The Federal Government sector is the only sector expected to experience negative growth, with an average annual rate of growth at -1.5 percent. Metro News Summaries EDC looks to pull plug on firm s incentive package The Ocala-Marion County Economic Development Corp., or EDC, has asked the County Commission to withdraw an incentive package for Integrated Manufacturing, a Colorado-based company that once sought financial aid in return for bringing almost 200 new jobs to the community. The agency petitioned the County Commission to disengage from Integrated Manufacturing because the firm had been unresponsive to the EDC s requests for more detailed information about its operations. The company intends to proceed with plans to establish operations in Ocala, said CEO Nolin Williams. Source: Ocala.com, April 16, Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

87 Ocala $2M in grants now in place, but food company still not signed In January, the County Commission awarded CitraPac, maker of a snack called Fruit Pearls pellets of oranges and tangerines created by freezing fresh citrus in liquid nitrogen a $755,000 incentive package. Two-thirds of the money is intended to assist in rent and utilities for the firm, with the rest slated to partially match a $1.02 million state grant for a total of $1.275 million that would constitute a rebate for any income, sales or property taxes related to the relocation. Yet Enterprise Florida, the state s economic development agency charged with vetting the proposal, was still awaiting more information from CitraPac. Specifically, financial data and the name of the mystery company that was backing CitraPac. Source: Ocala.com, April 20, 2012 This year s operating budget is about $303 million, with 85 percent going to salaries and benefits of the district s nearly 6,000 employees, including about 3,000 teachers. The district s operating budget has declined by $50 million, or 17 percent, since The budget was cut $24 million in alone $5 million more than expected. Source: Ocala.com, April 19, 2012 School Board suspends impact fee for another year For the second straight year, the Marion County School Board has decided to suspend the collection of school impact fees, money that s levied on new residential construction to help the school district pay for growth. The district s student population has remained nearly stagnant recently in the wake of the economic downturn that began in late As a result, new single-family, multi-family and mobile home construction has also slowed. The board will revisit the impact fee again in spring 2013 for the year. Source: Ocala.com, April 19, 2012 State budget bolsters Marion schools by $8.4M Despite the increase, the district will only break about even because it will lose $8.3 million in federal jobs bill money that expires this year. And that does not include the increase in expenses of doing business. Institute for Economic Competitiveness 87

88 Ocala Ocala MSA Industry Location Quotients 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate (percent) FL Unemployment Rate Ocala Unemployment Rate Ocala Payroll Employment (Thousands) Ocala Payroll Employment % 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% Ocala Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $) Real Gross Metro Product Ocala Real Personal Income (percent change year ago) Real Personal Income 88 Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

89 Ocala Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL July 2012 Forecast 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 89

90 Ocala Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

91 Ocala Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 91

92 Ocala Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

93 Ocala Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 93

94 Orlando Kissimmee Profiles The Orlando Kissimmee MSA is comprised of Lake, Orange, Osceola and Seminole Counties. Located in the southern center of the state, this area is home to numerous tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World, Universal Studios and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando Magic and the Predators arena football team. Orlando hosts many conventions utilizing some of the biggest hotels in the country and America s second largest convention center. The University of Central Florida, the nation s second largest university, and many other places of higher education also reside in the MSA. QUICK FACTS: MSA population estimate of 2,171,360 for 2011 (US Census Bureau). Lake County population estimate of 296,681 for 2011 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Orange County population estimate of 1,021,183,903 for 2011 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Osceola County population estimate of 275,010 for 2011 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Seminole County population estimate of 429,169 for 2011 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). A civilian labor force for the MSA of 1,109,000 in April 2012 (Florida Regional Economic Database). An unemployment rate of 8.9%, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to about 98,701 unemployed people in the Orlando MSA (Florida Regional Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: Walt Disney Co. 62,000 Orange County Public Schools 20,949 Advent Health System (Florida Hospital) 16,771 Universal Orlando Resort 16,000 Orlando Health 13,666 UPS 12,680 University of Central Florida 10,386 Lockheed Martin Corp. 9,000 Orange County Government 7,654 SeaWorld Parks & Entertainment 7,000 Outlook Summaries The Orlando Kissimmee area is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to grow at a rate of 5.0 percent annually. The per capita income level is expected to be Average annual wage growth will be 2.5 percent, the lowest of the studied MSAs. The average annual wage will be at a level of The Orlando MSA will see population growth of 1.9 percent, the second highest of the studied Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). Gross Metro Product is expected to average at 103, (Mill). Employment growth is forecasted to average 1.9 percent annually. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 7.9 percent. In the Orlando area, the fastest growing sector is expected to be the Construction and Mining sector with an average annual growth rate of 6.4 percent. This will be followed by the Professional and Business sector, with an average annual growth rate of 3.0 percent. The only sector that will experience negative growth is the Federal Government sector, with an average annual rate of growth of 1.3 percent. Metro News Summaries Four Orlando hotel projects on tap this year More than 1,350 jobs will be created in 2012 because of four different Central Florida hotel projects. One of these hotels is Walt Disney World s new Art of Animation. It will include 1,984 rooms and add 750 jobs during the next six months, as well as 800 temporary construction jobs. The rest of the jobs will come from the 300- room Embassy Suites in Osceola County, a Drury Inn & Suites on Sand Lake Road, and a Ramada Inn on I-drive. Source: Orlando Business Journal, April 1, 2011 Rollins planning $87.8 in capital projects Rollins College plans to renovate its century-old campus over the next ten years. It will spend 11.8 on the next two years on four projects. Source: Orlando Business Journal, Book of Lists Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

95 Orlando Kissimmee It will create 118 temporary jobs. All of these projects are funded in full by private donations, bonds, and capital reserves. One of the projects consists of replacing a 30- bed dorm without central air-conditioning with a new 70-bed residence hall which should be completed by September Rollins plans on renovating the library as well as adding to the landscape. The College will expand the campus center by renovating kitchens and furniture, as well as fixtures and equipment. It may include a 8,400 sq. ft. addition. This expansion/refurbishment will cost $4 million. Source: Orlando Business Journal, April 1, 2012 Orlando Health breaks ground on $297 million patient tower, renovation project In December 2011, Orlando Health made a New Year s resolution to create a 10-story, 345,000-square-foot tower that will hold 190 beds. The campus is just south of downtown. Its estimated completion date is The $297M redesign will include a new entry plaza, patient drop off/pick up center, a two-story lobby, and educational/conference space. It will also be enlarging the emergency center, trauma center, cardiovascular and surgical services, critical care, pharmacy, and laboratory. Source: Orlando Business Journal, April 26, 2012 Orlando ranked No. 4 among best airports Travel+Leisure magazine just published its inaugural Best and Worst Airports list. 22 major airports in the US were ranked using seven classifications which included flight delays, design, amenities, food and drink, check-in and security, service, and transportation and location. OIA was ranked first when it came for kids zones and luggage trolleys. It was ranked second for shopping and third for Wi-Fi. The airport did not rank so highly in other traits, including check-in and security as well as location. Source: Orlando Business Journal, April 27, 2012 Orange County Convention Center ranked top center in U.S. Business Review USA ranked the OCCC as the best convention center, attributing its success to excellent guest experience. The center offers three dine-in restaurants, eight food courts, and remote access for guests to check into their flights. It also was cited for its economic impact. The OCCC is responsible for saving taxes for surrounding households every year. OCCC, the second largest convention center, attracts more than 200 events and 1.2 million attendees. It is estimated that it contributes $1.9 billion to the area s economy. Source: Orlando Business Journal, May 7, 2012 Board of Governors approve increase in capital improvement fee at UCF UCF sought state permission to fund the renovation of its library. They asked to increase the student activity fee by $2 per credit hour. On June 21, the Florida Board of Governors approved the increase. It is the first time the fee has increased since 1989 and could yield about $25 million in 2013, and $19 million annually after that. UCF will expand the library in three phases. The first phase is to build 9,000-sq-ft addition that would house the Automatic Retrieval Center. The second phase will include more workspace and seating. The third will add onto the 2010 Knowledge Commons project. Source: Orlando Business Journal, June 8, 2012 Institute for Economic Competitiveness 95

96 Orlando Kissimmee Orlando - Kissimmee MSA Industry Location Quotients 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Providing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate (percent) 2.0% FL Unemployment Rate Orlando Unemployment Rate Orlando Payroll Employment (Thousands) % Orlando Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $) Real Gross Metro Product Orlando Real Personal Income (percent change year ago) Orlando Payroll Employment 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% Real Personal Income 96 Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

97 Orlando Kissimmee Quarterly Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL July 2012 Forecast 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 97

98 Orlando Kissimmee Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

99 Orlando Kissimmee Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 99

100 Orlando Kissimmee Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

101 Orlando Kissimmee Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 101

102 Palm Bay Melbourne Titusville Profiles The Palm Bay Melbourne Titusville MSA is comprised of Brevard County only. Typically known as Florida s Space Coast, this area is home to the Kennedy Space Center. Located in the central part of Florida s east coast, the region is home to Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, Patrick Air Force Base and government contractors such as Harris Corporation. Like much of Florida, this area is growing fast; Port Canaveral is now a leading cruise ship port. Quick Facts: Population estimate of 543,573 as of July 1, 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau). A civilian labor force of 267,597 in December of 2011 (Florida Regional Economic Database). An unemployment rate of 11.1% not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 29,662 unemployed people (Florida Regional Economic Database). Top Area Employers: Brevard County School Board- 9,140 Health First Employees - 6,350 Harris Corporation Employees - 6,130 United Space Alliance, LLC Employees 3,830 Brevard County Board of County Comm. 2,390 Department of Defense Health Management Associates 2,220 NASA 2,210 Brevard Community College 1,580 Rockwell Collins, Inc. Employees - 1,500 DRS INC 1,440 Northrup Grumman 1,400 Florida Institute of Technology 1,190 Source: Brevard Economic Development Council, 2011 Outlook Summaries The Palm Bay Melbourne Titusville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 4.6 percent each year. Per capita income levels should average Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.0 percent, the second highest of the studied MSAs. Average annual wage levels should be at 52.1, also the second highest of the studied MSAs. Population growth is expected to be an average of 1.1 percent, and the Gross Metro Product level is expected to be 17, (Mill). Employment growth is forecasted to average 1.8 percent each year. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 9.0 percent. Construction and Mining is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 5.7 percent growth annually. The Professional and Business Services sector will see the second highest annual growth rate at 2.8 percent, followed closely by the Information sector at 2.7 percent. Only the Federal Government sector will experience negative growth, at an average of -3.3 percent annually. Metro News Summaries Retinkered Runaway grabs rave reviews Negotiations with new artists are already afoot for next year s Runaway Country music festival, which may expand its footprint in Wickham Park, executive producer Gary McCann said. This year s festival attracted over 30,000 country music fans to see headlining bands such as Alan Jackson, Big & Rich, Kellie Pickler, Brantley Gilbert, Chris Young and Lo Cash Cowboys. Greg Minor, Brevard County south area parks director, said the Wickham Park rental fee increased from $27,500 last year to $32,500 this year. He said he was very satisfied with the event s logistics, and the park will reopen to the public the following Tuesday morning. Source: Florida Today, May 7, Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

103 Palm Bay Melbourne Titusville Port steers toward speeding up work to upgrade channel Members of the Canaveral Port Authority unanimously approved funding for key environmental testing and engineering work that could help move the project s timeline up by a decade. Authority Chief Executive Officer Stan Payne said the unanimous decision to commit more than $1.4 million for preliminary work could allow the main deepening and widening project to begin as early as July 2013 with an October 2014 completion. The deepening and widening work itself will cost $30 million to $40 million, which port officials hope will be paid for with a combination of federal, state and port dollars. The project will need final approval from a special Army Corps of Engineers Civil Works Review Board. Source: Florida Today, April 18, 2012 Adam Lowenstein: An investment in Brevard, wrapped in optimism DeBartolo Development and another Tampa outfit, Elco Landmark Residential, recently bought the former Sunbreeze Apartments on Woodwind Trail, off Lake Washington Road. The 208-unit complex in the growing community of Melbourne, according to the release announcing the acquisition has been renamed Landmark at Waverly Place, and will receive more than $1 million in improvements during the next 18 months. The complex, built in 1988, is already leased at 96 percent, so the new owners don t necessarily have much to gain by touting Brevard. Yet they did, voicing confidence in the region despite its economic travails of the last few years. Source: Florida Today, May 5, 2012 United Space Alliance plans to lay off of 148 at KSC United Space Alliance plans to lay off 148 workers at Kennedy Space Center in September, according to a notice filed last week with the state Department of Economic Opportunity. The notice said employees working in administrative and support, waste management and remediation services would be affected. The last shuttle mission ended July 21, About 8,000 space industry workers have lost their jobs as the 30-year-old shuttle program came to an end. The latest layoff will take place on Sept. 28 Source: Florida Today, July 31, 2012 Brevard in hunt for new energy jobs The U.S. Department of Energy plans to establish a Battery and Electrochemical Storage Technology Hub somewhere in the United States. The University of Central Florida in Orlando and the Florida Solar Energy Center in Cocoa, with help from the Economic Development Commission of Florida s Space Coast and others, want to bring it to an unused building in Palm Bay. The project, which would start with $20 million in federal funding for the first year and could receive another $100 million over the ensuing four years, is meant to create a centralized location to research and develop new technologies for storing energy. Source: Florida Today, July 31, 2012 Institute for Economic Competitiveness 103

104 Palm Bay Melbourne Titusville Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government % 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% FL Unemployment Rate Palm Bay Unemployment Rate Florida & Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Unemployment Rate (percent) Palm Bay Payroll Employment (Thousands) Palm Bay Payroll Employment Palm Bay Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $) Real Gross Metro Product 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Palm Bay Real Personal Income (percent change year ago) -6.0% Real Personal Income 104 Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

105 Palm Bay Melbourne Titusville Quarterly Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL July 2012 Forecast 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 105

106 Palm Bay Melbourne Titusville Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

107 Palm Bay Melbourne Titusville Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 107

108 Palm Bay Melbourne Titusville Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

109 Palm Bay Melbourne Titusville Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 109

110 Pensacola Ferry Pass Brent Profiles The Pensacola Ferry Pass Brent MSA is comprised of Escambia County and Santa Rosa County. Located in the northwest corner of Florida bordering Alabama, the region is home to the Pensacola Naval Air Station, Blue Angels, and the National Museum of Naval Aviation. This area has been referred to as the Cradle of Naval Aviation. QUICK FACTS: Metro population estimate of 453,218 as of July 1, (U.S. Census Bureau). Escambia County population estimate of 299,114 as of July 1, (U.S. Census Bureau). Santa Rosa County population estimate of 151,372 as of July 1, (U.S. Census Bureau). A civilian labor force of 206,530 as of April (Florida Research and Economic Information Database Application). An unemployment rate of 7.9% as of April This amounts to 16,239 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Information Database Application). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: Local Government 13,857 employees Federal Government 7,162 employees Escambia County School District 5,376 employees State Government 5,253 employees Sacred Heart Health System 5,000 employees Baptist Health Care 3,163 employees Santa Rosa County School District 2,600 employees Lakeview Center 2,000 employees Ascend Performance Materials 1,400 employees Gulf Power Company 1,365 employees Sources: Escambia County School District, Pensacola Chamber of Commerce Outlook Summaries The Pensacola Ferry Pass Brent Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see low levels of growth in the economic indicators, relative to the twelve other areas studied. Personal income growth is expected to average 3.9 percent each year. The per capita income level is expected to be The average annual wage growth rate should be at 2.6 percent. The average annual wage level is expected to be Population growth will be at a rate of 1.2 percent. The Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 13, (Mill). Employment growth is expected to average 0.7 percent each year, the second lowest of the studied MSAs. The unemployment rate will average 7.8 percent. Construction and Mining will be the fastest growing sector in Pensacola, with 5.6 percent average annual growth. The Professional and Business Services sector follows with a growth rate of 2.9 percent. Other Services, the Financial sector, the State and Local Government and Federal Government sectors are all expected to decrease with an average annual growth rate of -0.1 percent, -0.2 percent, -0.5 percent, and -3.3 percent respectively. Metro News Summaries UWF pushes heritage tourism project to add $1 billion to local economy Matt Altier, the University of West Florida s vice president for administration services and CEO of the new nonprofit business arm, Business Enterprises, Inc., is pushing for a $50 million plan to expand cultural tourism in downtown Pensacola. Altier s plan includes cobblestone or brick roads in the Historic District, new hotels and bed & breakfasts, a trolley system, and a ferry service. He predicts that this will attract one million tourists annually, create 10,000 jobs, and add $1 billion to the local economy. The vice president assures local businesses that the university s projects will not take away from their profits, but add to them. 110 Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

111 Pensacola Ferry Pass Brent The project could potentially use funds from the RESTORE Act, which would provide billions of dollars to areas along the Gulf affected by the BP oil spill, but the bill is currently held up in Congress. Source: Pensacola News-Journal, June 10, 2012 Groundbreaking begins Pensacola s first natural gas station On May 31st, Pensacola Mayor Ashton Hayward, along with Energy Services of Pensacola (ESP) and Emerald Coast Utilities Authority (ECUA), broke ground on ESP s first compressed natural gas fueling station. Pensacola and ECUA currently have a partnership to transition their fleets to using compressed natural gas, which will cost less for vehicles to fuel and maintain. This is the first of at least three fueling stations to be constructed by ESP. Source: Pensacola News-Journal, May 31, 2012 Santa Rosa Commission wants more reform at TEAM Santa Rosa County Commissioners believe more work needs to be done on proposed changes to the Santa Rosa Economic Alliance, formerly known as the TEAM Santa Rosa Economic Development Council. The alliance, while private, currently receives up to 90% of its budget from the county, and so commissioners believe greater oversight is needed into how taxpayer money is spent. Commissioners, the alliance, and the Economic Development Transition Committee are trying to find a balance between oversight of how the alliance decides its day-to-day actions and giving it enough freedom to encourage businesses to participate and become part of the alliance. Source: Pensacola News-Journal, June 26, 2012 Pensacola Beach emerging strong despite past setbacks Despite the occurrence of hurricanes, the housing bust, high gas prices, and the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, Pensacola Beach still enjoys relative success. According to Rod Lewis, director of the University of West Florida Haas Center for Business and Economic Development, there has been a 10 percent expansion in the economic impact of the beach on the region in the past decade. A study by Lewis for the Santa Rosa Island Authority also found that the impact of beach tourism and construction translates to 2,900 jobs, a labor income of $77 million, and $261 million rough visitor spending and nonresidential construction costs. Source: Pensacola News-Journal, June 29, 2012 Institute for Economic Competitiveness 111

112 Pensacola Ferry Pass Brent Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation,Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government % 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% FL Unemployment Rate Pensacola Unemployment Rate Florida & Pensacola Unemployment Rate (percent) Pensacola Payroll Employment (Thousands) Pensacola Payroll Employment Pensacola Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $) Real Gross Metro Product 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% Pensacola Real Personal Income (percent change year ago) -4.0% Real Personal Income 112 Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

113 Pensacola Ferry Pass Brent Quarterly Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL July 2012 Forecast 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 113

114 Pensacola Ferry Pass Brent Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

115 Pensacola Ferry Pass Brent Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 115

116 Pensacola Ferry Pass Brent Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

117 Pensacola Ferry Pass Brent Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 117

118 Tallahassee Profiles The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla Counties. It is located between Pensacola and Jacksonville. Tallahassee is the capital city of Florida and houses Florida State University and Florida A&M University. Quick Facts: Metro population estimate of 369,758 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). Gadsden County population estimate of 46,151 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). Jefferson County population estimate of 14,658 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). Leon County population estimate of 277,971 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). Wakulla County population estimate of 30,978 as of July 1, 2011 (U.S. Census Bureau). A civilian labor force of 189,722 in April 2012 (Florida Research and Economic Database). An unemployment rate of 6.7% as of April 2012, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 12,720 unemployed people for the entire region (Florida Research and Economic Database). Top Area Employers: State Government (all departments) 30,918 Florida State University 6,450 Leon County Schools 4,444 Tallahassee Memorial Healthcare 3,130 City of Tallahassee 2,708 Publix Super Markets 2,084 Leon County 1,918 Florida A&M University 1,888 Wal-Mart Stores Inc. 1,300 Capital Regional Medical Center 890 Outlook Summaries The Tallahassee Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show minimal growth in the economic indicators relative to other metro areas forecasted in the state. The area should see personal income growth averaging 4.1 percent each year. Per capita income levels should average Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.0 percent. The average annual wage level will be Population growth will be at 1.2 percent, and the Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 13, (Mill). Employment growth is expected to be 1.1 percent each year. The unemployment rate will average 6.5 percent, one of the lowest of the twelve MSAs. Construction and Mining will be the fastest growing sector in Tallahassee, averaging 6.4 percent annually. The Professional and Business Services sector follows with a growth rate of 4.3 percent. The State and Local Government and Federal Government sectors are expected to decline with average annual growth rates of -0.4 percent and -2.3 percent respectively. Metro News Summaries Tallahassee ranked No. 1 for retirement Tallahassee was number one on a list of 20 most appealing communities to live in for retirement. Climate, cost of living, and access to healthcare were among the many sectors taken into consideration in the study. The mid-size of Tallahassee was a definite advantage for the community rather than large urban cities like Pittsburg. The study shows the college towns are actually preferred by retirees because they offer educational attractions as well as cultural activities. Source: FSU News, April 17, 2012 Source: Tallahassee Economic Development Council 118 Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

119 Tallahassee Work begins on Miccosukee/Fleischmann Road Intersection Project The city of Tallahassee is beginning the Road Intersection Project in order to help traffic concerns as well as beautify the area. The first phase of the project is the construction of a stormwater drainage pond. The second phase will be to construct a roundabout at the Miccosukee/Fleischmann Road intersection. Lastly, the city would like to plant about 700 trees and add a sidewalk to make the area safer to walk around. Source: TalGov, May 1, 2012 First quarter brings loss for Capital City Bank Group Capital City Bank Group Inc., a Tallahassee based company, had a net loss of $1.2 million in the first quarter of In the first quarter of last year the company had a net gain of $1.3 million. The higher income taxes, higher noninterest expenses, and lower operating revenues were among the reasons for the loss in the first quarter. Kim Davis, Capital City s chief financial officer, said that real estate is still weak and the extremely low interest rates are continuing to hurt the bank. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, May 2, 2012 The owners of the Growing Room in Tallahassee found that many day care centers in Tallahassee had waiting lists; therefore it was necessary to open a new center. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, May 4, 2012 FAMU seeking more funds to fight hazing Florida A&M University wants to spend an extra million dollars next year in order to fight hazing at the university. This is due to the recent death of Drum Major Robert Champion. Some of the funds will go to hiring new staff including an anti-hazing assistant to the president and a compliance officer for the marching bands. FAMU also wants $800,000 for a re-branding campaign for the university s image. The university believes that enrollment in the upcoming Fall semester could drop by 18% which would mean a loss of $2.5 million in revenue. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, June 6, 2012 Growing Room adds third child-care center in Tallahassee The Growing Room, a child day care center, has opened its third location in Tallahassee in the Metropolitan Corporate Center. The location of the day care center is to provide convenience for the workers at the center. The center would like to bring education to young children in the day care center. Institute for Economic Competitiveness 119

120 Tallahassee Tallahassee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government % 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% FL Unemployment Rate Tallahassee Unemployment Rate Florida & Tallahassee Unemployment Rate (percent) Tallahassee Payroll Employment (Thousands) Tallahassee Payroll Employment Tallahassee Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $) Real Gross Metro Product 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Tallahassee Real Personal Income (percent change year ago) -6.0% Real Personal Income 120 Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

121 Tallahassee Quarterly Outlook for Tallahassee, FL July 2012 Forecast 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 121

122 Tallahassee Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

123 Tallahassee Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 123

124 Tallahassee Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

125 Tallahassee Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 125

126 Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater Profiles The Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater MSA is comprised of Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas counties. Located centrally on the west coast of Florida, this region includes Tarpon Springs, Sponge Docks, Ybor City, Bush Gardens, the University of South Florida and the University of Tampa. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Tampa Bay Rays call this region home. Quick Facts: MSA population estimate of 2,824,724 as of July 1, (U.S. Census Bureau) Hernando County population estimate of 173,094 as of July 1, (U.S. Census Bureau) Hillsborough County population estimate of 1,267,775 as of July 1, (U.S. Census Bureau) Pasco County population estimate of 466,475 as of July 1, (U.S. Census Bureau) Pinellas County population estimate of 917,398 as of July 1, (U.S. Census Bureau) A civilian labor force of 1,294,005 as of April (Florida Research and Economic Information Database Application) An unemployment rate of 8.5% as of April This amounts to 110,492 unemployed people throughout the entire region. (Florida Research and Economic Information Database Application) Top Area Employers: Hillsborough County School board 29,603 employees MacDill Air Force Base 15,485 employees Pinellas County School District 13,905 employees Hillsborough County Government 9,328 employees Pasco County School District 9,289 employees Verizon Communications, Inc. 9,065 employees University of South Florida 8,353 employees Tampa International Airport 8,060 employees Tampa General Hospital 6,900 employees Publix Food Centers 5,823 employees Outlook Summaries The Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to be 4.5 percent on average each year, and the per capita income level will average 34.9 annually. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 2.8 percent. The average annual wage level will be Population growth will average 1.3 percent, and Tampa is forecasted to have the second highest Gross Metro Product in the studied areas, averaging a level of 110, (Mill). Employment growth is expected to be 1.9 percent annually. The unemployment rate is expected to average 8.1 percent. The fastest growing sector in the Tampa area will be Construction and Mining, growing 5.0 percent each year. The Professional and Business Services sector follows with an average annual growth rate of 4.1 percent. The Federal Government sector will be the only sector that will experience a decline with an annual growth rate of -2.3 percent. Metro News Summaries $100M Quality Distribution deal signals energy biz expansion Tampa logistics firm Quality Distribution is acquiring assets of two companies, Wylie Bice Trucking LLC and RM Resources LLC, for $79.3 million combined, with an additional $19 million paid if certain future criteria are met. The companies acquired provide transportation services for oil and gas industries in oil-rich shales, broadening Quality Distribution s reach. Quality Distribution provides numerous transportation services for companies across North America in chemical and oil industries through its subsidiaries. Source: Tampa Bay Business Journal, May 8, 2012 Sources: Pasco County School District, Pinellas County School District, 2011 Comprehensive Annual Financial Report: Tampa Port Authority 126 Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

127 Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater Tampa Electric rolls out new program for weatherizing low income homes Tampa Electric, a subsidiary of TECO Energy, is weatherizing the homes of low-income owners in Sulphur Springs and Tampa Heights at no charge to the consumers. The weatherization program is expected to save residents approximately $100 per year, the savings of which benefits all customers by reducing the need for fee increases for new power plants. Progress Energy and other utilities across the state offer similar services, including free energy efficiency assessments for customers. Those who do not qualify for the program can expect to pay $700 for professional weatherization, or less if they do it themselves. Source: Tampa Bay Times, June 20, 2012 LumaStream lighting company announces plan to bring manufacturing jobs to St. Petersburg LumaStream, a lighting company which engineers products in Canada and manufactures them in Taiwan, announced a plan to bring those jobs to St. Petersburg, which they expect will create 1,000 jobs over the next five years. LumaStream will directly hire about 200 corporate employees and engineers, with expected salaries between $50k and $150k. The rest of the jobs will come from outsourcing the manufacturing jobs to local contractors. The lighting company is making the move to better oversee operations and because local officials were able to provide incentives for LumaStream to relocate its jobs. Several other companies, such as Ditek Corp., Genicon, and JS Karaoke have moved oversees jobs back to Florida for similar reasons. Source: Tampa Bay Times, June 15, 2012 USF on budget, PECO: Trying to avoid catastrophe Continuous budget cuts by the state and draining of funds for construction have left the University of South Florida in dire budgetary situations. USF Chief Operating Officer John Long said the school is trying to avoid catastrophe. The USF Board of Trustees voted to approve an operating budget that is $40 million less than last year. In addition, they are losing $30 million as the USF campus at Lakeland breaks off to form the 12th state university, Florida Polytechnic. State university budgets have been cut by close to 50% over the past few years, causing the budget woes. In addition, the fund known as PECO Public Education Capital Outlay has shrunk because the utility tax that pays for it has lost revenue due to people abandoning use of land lines and becoming more energy efficient. Source: Tampa Bay Times, May 24, 2012 Institute for Economic Competitiveness 127

128 Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade and Transportation Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government % 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% FL Unemployment Rate Tampa Unemployment Rate Florida & Tampa Unemployment Rate (percent) Tampa Payroll Employment (Thousands) Tampa Payroll Employment Tampa Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $) Real Gross Metro Product 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Tampa Real Personal Income (percent change year ago) -6.0% Real Personal Income 128 Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

129 Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater Quarterly Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL July 2012 Forecast 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Percent Change, Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 129

130 Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

131 Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 131

132 Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast - July 2012

133 Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL July Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (05$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths.) Real Per Capita Income (05$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Gross Metro Product (05$ Mil) Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 133

134 In App eciation The UCF College of Business Administration would like to thank Alan C. Charron, 84, for his generous gift to the Institute for Economic Competitiveness. His support enables the Institute to publish this forecast and will help fund future activities and research. Charron graduated in 1984 with a degree in finance. He is president of Real Property Specialists, Inc., located in Orlando, Florida. Founded in 1992, Real Property Specialists, Inc., is a fullservice brokerage company that has built a reputation of providing highly personalized service while being responsive and flexible to its clients' individual needs. They offer a range of commercial real estate services in the Central Florida area including brokerage, appraisal, development, property management and tenant representation. Real Property Specialists, Inc., has set a new standard of excellence in client service by providing these key advantages over the competition: Responsiveness. You work directly with a decision maker who has the flexibility to immediately attend to your needs. Consistency. We are a unified firm employing teammembers who are committed to the success of our clients. We pride ourselves on our ability to maintain a dedicated, professional staff that is able to build long-term, comfortable and prosperous relationships with our clients. Accountability. At Real Property Specialists, our client is the real "Boss." We are accountable to no one other than the client. No company policy interferes with our ability to serve the individual needs of each client. Experience. The staff at Real Property Specialists is highly qualified, with most associates having more than a decade of experience in the industry. Our personal portfolio of shopping centers gives us first-hand knowledge of what is important when leasing, managing or selling a property. Appraisers Brokers Consultants 6700 Conroy-Windermere Road, Suite 230 Orlando, FL

135 We would like to recognize the following organizations for their support of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness: Sean M. Snaith, Ph.D.