30 YEAR REPORT Florida & Metro FORECAST JUNE 2017

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1 30 YEAR REPORT Florida & Metro FORECAST JUNE 2017

2 About University of Central Florida (UCF) The University of Central Florida is a public, multi-campus, metropolitan research university, dedicated to serving its surrounding communities with their diverse and expanding populations, technological corridors, and international partners. The mission of the university is to offer highquality undergraduate and graduate education, student development, and continuing education; to conduct research and creative activities; and to provide services that enhance the intellectual, cultural, environmental, and economic development of the metropolitan region, address national and international issues in key areas, establish UCF as a major presence, and contribute to the global community. About the College of Business Administration The College of Business Administration advances the university s mission and goals in providing intellectual leadership through research, teaching, and service. The college is striving to enhance graduate programs, while maintaining the strong undergraduate base. The college delivers research and quality business education programs at the undergraduate, masters, doctoral, and executive levels to citizens of the state of Florida and to select clientele nationally and internationally. We would like to recognize the following organizations for their support of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness:

3 FLORIDA & METRO FORECAST Published quarterly by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, College of Business Administration, University of Central Florida Copyright 2017 Institute for Economic Competitiveness. All rights reserved. Publications of the Institute for Economic Competitiveness are made possible by the following staff: Dr. Sean Snaith, Director Angela Ayala, Administrative Assistant Diana Merchant, Researcher Leigh Durden, Researcher Maegan Alexis Trinidad, Researcher Coulter Small, Researcher Colin Lancaster, Researcher Brandt Dietry, Researcher This forecast was prepared based upon assumptions reflecting the Institute for Economic Competitiveness judgments as of the date it bears. Actual results could vary materially from the forecast. Neither the Institute for Economic Competitiveness nor the University of Central Florida shall be held responsible as a consequence of any such variance. Unless approved by the Institute for Economic Competitiveness, the publication or distribution of this forecast and the preparation, publication or distribution of any excerpts from this forecast are prohibited.

4 TABLE OF CONTENTS Florida Highlights and Summary Florida Forecast Tables Florida Forecast Charts Florida News Summaries Deltona Daytona Beach Ormond Beach Gainesville Jacksonville Lakeland Winter Haven Miami Fort Lauderdale West Palm Beach Naples Immokalee Marco Island Ocala Orlando Kissimmee Sanford Palm Bay Melbourne Titusville Pensacola Ferry Pass Brent Tallahassee Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

5 HIGHLIGHTS OF THE JUNE 2017 FLORIDA FORECAST Florida s economy in 2046: o Payroll Employment: 12,728,122 o Population: 28,971,270 o Real Gross State Product: $1.877 trillion o Nominal Gross State Product: $4.345 trillion o Retail Sales: $1.218 trillion From Florida s economy, as measured by Real Gross State Product, will expand at an average annual rate of 3.1%. Real Gross State Product (RGSP) will expand 3.0% in It will expand 3.7% in 2018 before growth eases to 2.9% in 2019 and then to 2.6% in Average growth during is expected to be on par with our forecasted average for U.S. Real GDP growth over the same period. Payroll job growth in Florida is robust and continues to outpace national job growth. Year-over-year growth should average 3.3% in 2017, 3.3% in 2018, 2.3% in 2019 and 1.7% in Average job growth over the period will be 0.8 percentage points faster than the national economy. Labor force growth in Florida will average 2.0% from Consistently strong payroll job creation has strengthened Florida s labor market. The improved prospect of finding a job will continue to put more Floridians back on the hunt for employment as well as attract out-of-state job seekers. This same labor force growth makes the task of lowering the state s unemployment rate more challenging, but Florida s job creation will overcome this counterweight. The unemployment rate should fall to 3.9% in 2018, 3.7% in 2019 and then to 3.8% in The sectors expected to have the strongest average job growth during are Construction (5.5%), Professional & Business Services (4.9%), Leisure & Hospitality (2.7%), Education & Health Services (2.4%), Financial (2.0%), and Trade, Transportation & Utilities (1.8%). Housing starts will accelerate going forward, but not fast enough to ease the shortage of single-family housing in the short run. Total starts will be 135,598 in 2017, 151,409 in 2018, 157,349 in 2019 and 165,172 in House price appreciation should decelerate over this period as supply catches up with demand. Real personal income growth will average 4.1% during , starting with 4.0% growth in 2017, rising to 5.0% growth in 2018, and decelerating for the next two years. Florida s average growth will exceed the national rate by 1.4 percentage points over that four-year span. Retail sales will grow at an average pace of over 5.0% during , boosted by a stronger national economy, continued strength in Florida s labor market, and rising household wealth. Institute for Economic Competitiveness 5

6 Florida Summary FLORIDA S ECONOMY BY Total Population 23,477,700 26,197,500 28,971,270 Payroll Employment 10,057,385 11,246,867 12,728,122 Gross State Product (trillions of current dollars) Gross State Product (trillions of 2009 dollars) $1.529 $2.531 $4.345 $1.077 $1.408 $1.887 Total Housing Starts 176, , ,573 Real Personal Income (trillions of 2009 dollars) Retail Sales (billions of current dollars) $1.201 $1.580 $2.075 $513 $784 $1,218 FLORIDA S ECONOMY IN 2046 A lot can happen in thirty years. I am reminded of this fact every time I look in a mirror and every year when the Institute for Economic Competitiveness puts out our 2nd quarter Florida & Metro Forecast. It is in this quarter that we do our annual thirty-year outlook for Florida s economy. For those who are old enough to remember, it was 1987 when President Reagan gave his tear down this wall speech in West Berlin. It was also the year of the worst single-day percentage decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 22.6% to close at 1,738 on what became known as Black Monday, October 19th of that year. Real GDP was $8.1 trillion in 1987 and is expected to be near $17.1 trillion in I would have been using a typewriter and gallons of Wite-out to write this in 1987, probably listening to U2 s The Joshua Tree cassette tape on a Sony Walkman. Cell phones were few and far between and were about the size of 12-inch sub from Publix. The movie Dirty Dancing was released and became an unexpected hit and subsequent cult classic. Since 1987 there have been three recessions, two financial bubbles, eight presidential elections, the stock market has hit an all-time high over 21,500, and technological and economic changes have since taken place that would have been unimaginable in So you might ask, why do we put out a 30-year forecast each year? Because nobody puts the IEC in a corner. It is a dirty business, not Dirty Dancing, trying to predict thirty years into the future, but there are 6 Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

7 Florida Summary those who must plan decades ahead. We do it for those involved in transportation planning, education, development, government, utilities, pension planning, business, site selection and anyone else who must make decisions that are based on the long run. These forecasts are meant to provide input into their decision making process. It would be reasonable to expect that we will have three to five recessions over the next thirty years, but unreasonable to try and predict the timing of these downturns. So in the long run forecasts we do not try to incorporate cyclical fluctuations into the projections that follow. Instead we allow the forecasts to converge to trends, trends driven by the underlying fundamentals of economic growth. The result is graphs that are pretty boring as the projections converge to those trends and a predicted path for the economy that will vary significantly from the actual path the economy follows over the next three decades. So put your Walkman on (I m told cassettes are making a comeback) as you peruse the pages that follow. In the meantime, here are few highlights of what Florida s economy will look like by FLORIDA S HOUSING MARKET Low and Falling Inventories Continue to Feed Price Appreciation The May 2017 single-family home report released by Florida Realtors portrays a market for existing housing that remains tight, fueling price appreciation that is closing in on the highs of the housing bubble. The median sales price for single-family homes increased $17,010 in May 2017, year over year, and now stands at $239,000 a year-over-year price appreciation of a robust 7.7%. Price appreciation in the townhome/ condominium market continues as well, with an increase in the median sales price by $13,300 year over year, registering at $178,000 in May of this year. Inventories of single-family homes in May are down from a year ago and are now just 4.0 months, indicating an inventory balance that continues to favor sellers in the single-family market, according to the Florida Realtors report. 1 Inventories of condominiums decreased from 6.1 months supply back in May of 2016 to 6.0 months this May. This indicates that the condo market has moved toward a more balanced market between buyers and sellers but slightly tilted in the buyers favor. Distressed sales of single-family homes in the form of short sales are continuing to plummet year over year (-30.7%), as are foreclosure/reo sales versus May 2016 (-44.5%). Traditional sales are up 14.2% year over year versus May Distressed sales of condos in the form of short sales are still rapidly contracting year over year as well (-44.8%), and foreclosure/reo sales are down sharply as well versus May 2016 (-47.2%). Traditional sales were up 13.7% in May 2017 when compared to May The percentage of closed sales of single-family homes that were cash transactions stood at 26.8% in May For condos, that figure is much higher, as 54.4% of all closings were cash transactions. Both of these markets shares of cash transactions have fallen year over year, which points to a diminishing role of cash investors in Florida s housing market, amid some improvement in mortgage availability year over year. 2 Figure 1 depicts the monthly realtor sales of existing single-family homes as well as the 12-month moving average of these sales. This smoother moving average line levels out the seasonality and other statistical noise in monthly housing market data. Sales have been on a 1 According to the Florida Realtors, the benchmark for a balanced market (favoring neither buyer nor seller) is 5.5 months of inventory. Numbers above that indicate a buyers market, numbers below a sellers market. Other real estate economists suggest a 6 to 9 month inventory as being a balanced market. 2 The Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), put out by the Mortgage Bankers Association, decreased 0.2 percent to in April 2017 from March A decline in the index indicates that lending standards have eased slightly. The index is benchmarked to 100 in March Relative to that month, mortgages in April 2017 were 83.0% more available. In 2006, the value of this same index approached 900. Institute for Economic Competitiveness 7

8 FLORIDA SUMMARY Figure 1. Florida Single-Family, Existing Homes Figure 2. Florida Single-Family, Existing Homes 30,000 $300,000 25,000 Realtor Sales Moving Average $250,000 Median Sales Price Moving Average 20,000 $200,000 15,000 $150,000 10,000 $100,000 5,000 $50,000 0 $0 Source: Florida Realtors Source: Florida Realtors strong upward path and the 12-month moving average and monthly sales have now exceeded their peak value during the housing bubble. Sales growth coming out of the bottom has been on a stronger trend than the pre-bubble housing market, but over the past year, the 12-month moving average flattened out before resuming its climb. This may be a reflection of decreasing affordability in the face of the rapid price appreciation over the past two-plus years and a depleted inventory of houses for sale. The fundamentals of the housing market in Florida continue to strengthen. Economic and job growth in Florida are forecasted to continue to outperform the U.S. labor market and more Baby Boomers continue to reach the end of their working lives. This bodes well for continued population growth via the in-migration of retirees and job seekers to Florida. The population of Florida is also growing naturally, as birth rates exceed death rates. In addition to these sources of domestic population growth, international immigration will also feed into the state s population growth. We expect this upward trend in sales will resume as increases in the supply of new housing in the future will help ameliorate rapid price appreciation given the improving economic and demographic foundations of demand for housing. Figure 2 displays median sales prices for single-family existing homes. Median sales prices continue to climb since bottoming out in The double-digit pace of price increases of 2015 and 2016 have eased in Still, over the past year, the 12-month moving average of median sales prices has risen by nearly $22,000. Low inventories of existing homes for sale and sputtering housing starts growth contribute to an environment where home prices continue to rise at a rapid pace. The shortage in the single-family market will be rectified as the pace of single-family housing starts to ramp up over the next several years. Single-family housing starts in 2020 are expected to increase by 107% from 2014 levels. GROSS STATE PRODUCT Real Gross State Product (RGSP) or real state GDP growth in Florida is expected to grow at an average pace on par with what we are forecasting for U.S. Real GDP growth over the next four years. In 2013, as the state exited the greater recession, Florida s economy accelerated with a growth rate of 1.9% with rising consumer confidence, progress in the housing market recovery, population growth, and healing of the damage in the labor market; building a foundation for even faster economic growth in the state. Growth accelerated to 4.0% in 2015 but eased in 2016 to 2.7% as the national economy only grew 1.6% in that year. Florida is poised for another two-year acceleration in growth before growth eases again in 2019 and Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

9 FLORIDA SUMMARY The improvement of the fundamentals of the state s economy helped accelerate growth in 2015 when RGSP expanded at 4.0%, the fastest growth rate in the recovery to date before decelerating in 2016 along with the national economy. In 2017 through 2018, however, growth will accelerate again as the Trump administration s economic policy helps to boost Florida s economy. Growth in that two-year stretch is expected to be 3.0% and 3.7%. During , Florida s RGSP is expected to grow an average of 3.1% annually. In 2019 and 2020, however, growth has been revised down as anticipated increases in interest rates work their way through the economy. This average growth of 3.1% during 2017 through 2020 is a faster pace of the average growth compared to the prior four years (when growth averaged 2.9%). This projected average rate of growth for Florida s economy is on par with the average of our forecasted real GDP growth for the U.S. economy over the same time frame (3.1%). Housing prices have made substantial progress from the bottom of the housing crisis. During the crisis, median existing home prices fell to a low of $122,200 but now stand at $239,000. This ongoing price appreciation continues to repair the damage done to household balance sheets in Florida, but even with rapid price appreciation, it will still take a year or two to recover all the wealth lost in the housing market collapse. Housing prices plummeted from the medianprice high of $257,800 in June of Nominal Gross State Product (NGSP) continues on track toward the $1 trillion mark and will be more than $977 billion in In 2018, Florida will finally break that $1 trillion mark with an NGSP of $1.035 trillion, then continue to climb to $1.088 trillion in 2019, before hitting $1.141 trillion in PERSONAL INCOME, RETAIL SALES, AND AUTO SALES In 2015, real personal income growth in Florida hit 5.2% after growing 5.1% in the prior year. These two strong years of growth followed a contraction of 0.6% in Growth will ease in 2016, as personal income growth comes in at 3.8%. From that point, personal income growth will tick up to 4.0% in 2017, before accelerating again to 5.0% in 2018 and easing back to 4.3% in 2019, then contracting to 3.2% in Florida is expected to outpace the nation in real personal income growth, averaging 0.4 percentage points higher than the national average growth for 2017 through Real personal income growth during will average 4.1% in Florida. Nominal personal income will exceed $1.013 trillion in 2020, marking an increase in personal income in excess of $319 billion from its nadir in In 2017, real disposable income growth will average 3.7%, down from the previous year s 4.1% growth rate. Average growth in Florida during will remain a healthy 4.1%, with U.S. real disposable income growth expected to average 3.7% during the same time frame. Financial markets have been in a bull market since the low point of the financial crisis thanks in large part to the Federal Reserve Bank s zero interest rate policy bolstered by three massive rounds of quantitative easing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to the 6,600 level in March of 2009 but then surged to an excess of 18,000 in 2015, where it has been hovering after hitting a high of 18,668. In 2016 financial markets got off to a rough start but recovered by spring. The stock market once again spent much of the time after this recovery at or near the 18,000-point mark until the 2016 presidential election. Since Donald Trump was elected president, the stock market has set multiple record highs, with the Dow touching 21,535 at its peak to date. Whether this rally was driven by expectations of a stronger economy under the Trump administration or other factors could be debated. There is no debating that the stock market has continued to set and break through record highs since the election. For those households holding stocks and bonds directly or through retirement accounts, this bullrun has created trillions of dollars of wealth. The Fed embarked on its third interest rate hike in March of this year and did so again at their June FOMC meeting. Interest rate hikes, which are likely to Institute for Economic Competitiveness 9

10 Florida Summary come at this more rapid pace going forward, will weigh on future gains in the stock market. However, faster economic growth will likely outweigh the economic drag of higher interest rates. Home equity in Florida has not recovered as rapidly, nor as completely, as financial asset wealth, but housing prices have been climbing over the past four years. An acceleration in the rate of price appreciation in 2015 to a double-digit pace, which has eased in 2017, is creating significant gains in home equity wealth for Floridians; however, for many households in Florida, the effects of the lost home equity wealth will continue to weigh upon consumer spending through the end of 2017 and into Financial asset wealth and home equity wealth should continue to grow, boosting consumer confidence and spending and financing the retirement of even more Baby Boomers to Florida. With Florida s strong labor market recovery sustaining its momentum, wage and salary growth that is finally materializing, and more home equity being recovered, retail spending will remain strong through 2020, with growth averaging 5.0% during Consumers began to purchase light vehicles at a faster pace after the recession ended, releasing several years of pent-up demand, and continued to do so through 2016, though the pace has slowed considerably. However, sustained growth at a lower rate will be enabled by the availability of financing, in some cases interest-free, for the purchase of automobiles and light trucks, faster economic growth, and continued improvement Florida s labor market. Vehicle registration growth in Florida exhibited that pent-up demand, growing robustly during when registrations grew at a year-over-year average rate in excess of 11.4%. The now-vented pent-up demand will be replaced by new demand fueled by faster economic growth in Florida during Over this period, vehicle registration growth in Florida is expected to average a more modest 2.6%, with growth being at its peak during this time in 2017 at nearly 4.25% before dipping in 2018 to 3.54%, to 1.3% in 2019 and holding at that rate in In 2020, Florida s new passenger car and truck registrations will reach more than million, rising from the 2019 projection of million. Motor vehicle sales have been the strongest component of consumer spending over the past several years. This growth decelerated in 2016, but the pro-growth policy of the new presidential administration will keep this sector moving forward, albeit in a lower gear. This will extend the streak of rising registrations to eleven years, carrying it through to the end of our current forecast horizon. EMPLOYMENT The pace of Florida s labor market recovery continues to exceed the recovery of the national job market. Our outlook for Florida is that this will continue to be the case through at least 2020, but this outpacing will narrow since higher levels of job growth are expected nationally. Payroll job growth was robust in 2015 at 3.6%. Most of that momentum carried over into 2016, though the pace has eased slightly. Growth decelerated slightly last year to 3.5%, before it is expected to ease to 3.3% in 2017, 3.3% in 2018, 2.3% in 2019 and 1.7% in Although job growth is expected to decelerate through our short-run forecast horizon, Florida will continue to outpace national job growth over the entire forecast horizon ( ) by an average of 0.8 percentage points. The Construction sector was shattered by the bursting of the housing bubble, with total job losses at just under 347,000. It is expected to be the fastest sector for job growth among all industrial sectors in Florida s economy through the end of our 2020 forecast horizon. While the rate of growth in the Construction sector remains strong, supported by anticipated infrastructure spending by the Trump administration, the pace of forecasted growth will ease somewhat going forward as higher interest rates driven by Fed tightening will create a bit of a headwind for the housing sector. Construction job growth is expected to decelerate slightly over the upcoming year but will remain strong, as housing starts continue to grow in an environment that still features significant price appreciation for 10 Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

11 Florida Summary existing single-family homes. Despite the episodic slowing in new home construction growth, growth rates in housing starts over the forecast horizon will support construction job growth of 7.6% in 2017, before decelerating to 6.7% in 2018, easing to 4.6% in 2019 and further to 3.1% in Average annual job growth during will be 5.5%. Employment will average 585,647 in 2020 a level that is 96,478 fewer jobs than the 2006 peak employment in the Construction sector. In Florida, the average salary for construction jobs is $51,408. The Professional and Business Services sector will be the second fastest growing sector in the state on average through Job growth in this sector is expected to be strong, averaging 4.9% during Job growth in this sector over the past three years averaged 4.8%, but growth will be slightly faster over the next four years. Job growth will ease in 2017 to 4.8% after growing 7.8% in 2016, before accelerating back to 7.8% in Growth in this sector will ease to 4.5% in 2019 before easing further to 2.4% in The Professional and Business Services sector is comprised primarily of white-collar service providing businesses. The sector includes accounting firms, financial management companies, advertising agencies, computer systems design firms, law firms, architectural and engineering companies, and temporary employment agencies. Average salaries for this sector in Florida are near $62, The Professional and Business Services sector in Florida recovered very quickly from the Greater Recession and was the first to recover all its payroll jobs lost during the recession and will continue to perform strongly through The Information sector in Florida added jobs for the first time in eight years in 2013 with job growth of 0.4%. Growth then accelerated to 1.5% in 2014 before the sector began to lose momentum once again in The Information sector is a mix of hightech sectors such as computer programming and 3 According to the most recent Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages: data-center/statistical-programs/quarterly-census-ofemployment-and-wages software development, both sources of growth, but the sector is weighed down by legacy media outlets including newspapers and magazines, which continue to struggle with structural changes in the gathering and dissemination of information and who pays for it. Sources of growth within this sector in Florida, such as software development, data processing and hosting, wireless telecommunications, and content creation, are beginning to offset the ongoing loss of jobs in traditional media and publishing. Even so, the pace of job growth when it returns will remain muted. Growth finally turned positive in 2013 and growth will stay in this territory through Job growth is expected to be 0.7% in 2017, 1.8% in 2018, 1.1% in 2019 before easing to 0.4% in The projected growth path implies an average growth rate of 1.0% during The Education and Health Services sector in Florida grew consistently even during the worst of the recession. Demand from the state s larger share of the population of older residents, who have a higher demand for health services, have supported this growth. The future replacement of the Affordable Care Act is still being hashed out in Congress. This creates a cloud of uncertainty over the health sector but despite this uncertainty job growth will continue, though at a diminished rate. During , employment in this sector is expected to continue to expand at an average rate of 2.4%. In Florida, average salaries in this sector stand at $49,760. Manufacturing employment expanded in Florida at an average rate of 3.6% in 2016, which was the best growth rate in more than 16 years; 2017 should see an easing but still respectable growth. The economic environment for the manufacturing sector is becoming more unfriendly as global economic environments remain tenuous, trade agreements are in flux and the U.S. dollar continues to be strong. The weakening of economic growth abroad, including a slowdown in China, persistent weak growth in Europe, Brexit and its aftermath, and the incipient recovery from a historic recession in Brazil, have all fed into the current global economic environment. The Institute for Economic Competitiveness 11

12 Florida Summary Trump Administration s efforts to retain and bring back manufacturing jobs via trade policy may or may not have a significant impact on this sector. These efforts could yield a positive outcome in the end, but in the meantime create a higher level of uncertainty regarding the outlook for the sector. These developments will eventually weigh on the rate of job growth in the manufacturing sector, but in Florida in 2017, job growth will average 2.7%. We are looking at job growth of 1.2% in manufacturing for 2018, followed by a slight acceleration to 1.3% in 2019 with a further slowing of growth in 2020 when manufacturing employment will expand at an average rate of 1.1%. Average job growth during with thus come in at 1.6%. The State and Local Government sector in Florida are enjoying improved revenue flows, though not back to the windfall levels of the housing bubble. As housing prices continue to climb; property tax revenue is rising as well. Despite this improvement, revenues for local governments are still below their peaks in the housing boom, even in the fastest growing housing markets around the state. Government budget shortfalls led to job losses in this sector that persisted for six years, from 2009 through Despite growing tax revenues, the specter of that prolonged budgetary crisis has kept spending growth modest and employment growth subdued. As Florida s population and economy continue to grow, the demand for state and local government services will grow as well. To meet this demand, growth in state and local government employment will be necessary, but will not rise to the levels seen during the housing boom. Average job growth in State and Local Government during will be 1.2%, with annual growth rising to 1.6% in 2019 before easing to 1.1% in The 2019 growth rate is the expected to be the fastest since before the recession. On the other hand, the outlook for Federal Government employment growth in Florida will begin to worsen over the near term forecast horizon. Average job growth in the Federal Government sector in Florida will average -0.3% with growth turning negative in 2017 and remaining in negative territory until the temporary hiring surge during the census year in Any long-term solution to our federal deficit and debt problems will involve additional revenue, but ultimately cuts in discretionary federal spending will be needed as entitlement programs continue to swell, consuming an increasing piece of the federal revenue pie. The proposed fiscal policies of the Trump administration large infrastructure spending coupled with tax cuts will exacerbate the national debt situation over the next four years. As the Federal Reserve begins to move more quickly with interest rate hikes, the burden of servicing a national debt that is currently more than $19.95 trillion and poised to go higher will require a larger share of federal tax revenue. The pain of running four years of trillion-dollar deficits has been dampened by historically low-interest rates on Treasury Bonds, but that pain is going to intensify as Treasury rates climb along with the Fed s increases in the federal fund s rate, higher rates of inflation and a Trump administration reflates annual budget deficits. UNEMPLOYMENT The unemployment rate in Florida has plunged from its recession-driven peak level of 11.2% in January 2010 and stands at 4.3% as of May After five years well above the national rate of unemployment, Florida s May 2017 unemployment rate is at par with the national unemployment rate. Florida s labor force participation rate in May 2017 stood at 60.1%, which is up from 59.0% one year earlier. The national labor force participation rate stood at 62.7% in May 2017, which is down 0.1 points from May This is the lowest level for the national labor force participation rate since February of 1978 and is down 3.3 percentage points from the start of the recession. The labor force participation rate is calculated as the percentage of the population aged 16 and older who are counted as participating in the labor force. The number of retirees in that population, who are obviously older 12 Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

13 FLORIDA SUMMARY than sixteen, but who no longer are active in the labor force, push down the overall labor force participation rate. The relatively higher share of the population in Florida who are in retirement explains why the state s labor force participation rate is lower than the national rate and the continued migration of retirees to the Sunshine State should weigh on the participation rate. In May 2016, Florida s population over the age of sixteen grew by 310,000 year over year, while its labor force grew by 367,000. We are forecasting solid economic growth in Florida over the next several years as well as continued growth in payroll jobs. This faster economic and job growth will generate a more rapidly growing labor force, making additional progress in reducing the unemployment rate increasingly challenging. After 2016 s growth of 2.1%, we expect the labor force to continue to grow near this level during at an average rate of 2.0%, despite the downward pressure from retiree migration. Going forward, job seekers will be encouraged by the robust payroll job growth in the state and become motivated to enter or reenter Florida s labor force. This will result in slower declines in the unemployment rate, but this will not stop the downward trend in unemployment rates over the forecast horizon. Nationally, and in Florida, the level of workers who are working part-time but not by choice, and workers marginally attached to the labor force defined as workers who are neither working nor currently looking for work, but indicate that they want and are available for a job, and have looked for work in the past 12 months remain elevated. When adding these workers and discouraged workers defined as workers who are currently not working and did not look for a job in the four weeks preceding the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly survey of households to the headline unemployment figure, U-3, we get the broadest measure of unemployment estimated by the BLS, known as U-6. Looking at U-6, we see a labor market that is still deeply scarred, as U-6 in Florida averaged 10.3% during the 2nd quarter 2016 through the 1st quarter of 2017, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Meanwhile, the national rate of U-6 averaged 9.5% over that same time period. U-6 unemployment in Florida is well down from its average readings of 12.8% in 2014, 14.3% in 2013, 16% in 2012, 17.6% in 2011, and down 9.0 percentage points from its peak average rate of 19.3% in 2010 (the nation s U-6 averaged 16.7% in 2010). The employer mandates of the Affordable Care Act likely caused the levels of underemployment to grow. Employer and worker responses to the full/part-time distinction and the disincentives to full-time work resulting from the law will be removed by the current proposal to repeal the law. This would have a downward effect on the levels of U-6 nationally and in Florida. Specifically, analysis of how U-6 behaves relative to the headline unemployment rate (U-3) will continue to provide important information necessary to fully understand the full impact of that healthcare law on the labor market. The gap between these two measures of unemployment remains historically large. The spread between U-6 and U-3 at the national level is hovering at 5.2 percentage points, while that gap is 6.0 percentage points in Florida. Institute for Economic Competitiveness 13

14 Florida Tables Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) Personal Income (Bil. 2009$) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) Disp. Income (Bil. 2009$) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch) GSP (Bil. 2009$) (%Ch) Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%) Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't State & Local Gov't Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch) Net Migration (thous) (%Ch) Housing Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous) Consumer Prices (%Ch) Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

15 Florida Tables Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) Personal Income (Bil. 2009$) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) Disp. Income (Bil. 2009$) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch) GSP (Bil. 2009$) (%Ch) Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%) Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't State & Local Gov't Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch) Net Migration (thous) (%Ch) Housing Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous) Consumer Prices (%Ch) Institute for Economic Competitiveness 15

16 Florida Tables Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) Personal Income (Bil. 2009$) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) Disp. Income (Bil. 2009$) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch) GSP (Bil. 2009$) (%Ch) Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%) Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't State & Local Gov't Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch) Net Migration (thous) (%Ch) Housing Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous) Consumer Prices (%Ch) Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

17 Florida Tables Table 1. Annual Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) Personal Income (Bil. 2009$) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) Disp. Income (Bil. 2009$) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch) GSP (Bil. 2009$) (%Ch) Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%) Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't State & Local Gov't Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch) Net Migration (thous) (%Ch) Housing Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous) Consumer Prices (%Ch) Institute for Economic Competitiveness 17

18 Florida Tables Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the University of Central Florida Forecast for Florida* 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 Personal Income and GSP Personal Income (Bil. $) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) Personal Income (Bil. 2009$) Florida (%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) Disp. Income (Bil. 2009$) Florida(%Ch) U.S.(%Ch) GSP (Bil. $) (%Ch) GSP (Bil. 2009$) (%Ch) Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey % Change) Employment Labor Force FL Unemployment Rate (%) U.S. Unemployment Rate (%) Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey % Change) Total Nonfarm U.S Florida Mining Construction Manufacturing Nondurable Goods Durable Goods Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Financial Activities Prof. and Business Services Edu & Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Information Federal Gov't State & Local Gov't Population and Migration Population (thous) (%Ch) Net Migration (thous) (%Ch) Housing Housing Starts Tot. Private (thous) Housing Starts Single Family (thous) Housing Starts Multi-Family (thous) Consumer Prices (%Ch) *Quarterly at an annual rate 18 Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

19 Florida Tables Table 3. Employment Quarterly* 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm Manufacturing Durable Goods Wood Products Computer & Electronics Transportation Equipment Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining Construction Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Information Prof. & Bus. Services Admin. & Support Prof. Sci & Tech Mgmt. of Co Financial Activities Real Estate & Rent Fin. & Insurance Edu. & Health Service Education Services Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government Federal Gov't State & Local Gov't *Quarterly at an annual rate Institute for Economic Competitiveness 19

20 Florida Tables Table 4. Employment Annual Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm Manufacturing Durable Goods Wood Products Computer & Electronics Transportation Equipment Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining Construction Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Information Prof. & Bus. Services Admin. & Support Prof. Sci & Tech Mgmt. of Co Financial Activities Real Estate & Rent Fin. & Insurance Edu. & Health Service Education Services Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government Federal Gov't State & Local Gov't Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

21 Florida Tables Table 4. Employment Annual Total Nonfarm Manufacturing Durable Goods Wood Products Computer & Electronics Transportation Equipment Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining Construction Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Information Prof. & Bus. Services Admin. & Support Prof. Sci & Tech Mgmt. of Co Financial Activities Real Estate & Rent Fin. & Insurance Edu. & Health Service Education Services Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government Federal Gov't State & Local Gov't Institute for Economic Competitiveness 21

22 Florida Tables Table 4. Employment Annual Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm Manufacturing Durable Goods Wood Products Computer & Electronics Transportation Equipment Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining Construction Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Information Prof. & Bus. Services Admin. & Support Prof. Sci & Tech Mgmt. of Co Financial Activities Real Estate & Rent Fin. & Insurance Edu. & Health Service Education Services Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government Federal Gov't State & Local Gov't Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

23 Florida Tables Table 4. Employment Annual Florida Payroll Employment (Thousands) Total Nonfarm Manufacturing Durable Goods Wood Products Computer & Electronics Transportation Equipment Nondurables Foods Non-Manufacturing Mining Construction Trans. Warehs. & Utility Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Information Prof. & Bus. Services Admin. & Support Prof. Sci & Tech Mgmt. of Co Financial Activities Real Estate & Rent Fin. & Insurance Edu. & Health Service Education Services Health Services Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government Federal Gov't State & Local Gov't Institute for Economic Competitiveness 23

24 Florida Tables Table 5. Personal Income-Quarterly* 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 Billions Current Dollars Personal Income Wages & Salaries Other Labor Income Nonfarm Farm Property Income Transfer Payments Social Insurance Billions 2009 $ Personal Income Wages & Salaries Other Labor Income Nonfarm Farm Property Income Transfer Payments Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations Retail Sales (Billions $) Real Retail Sales (Billions 2009$) *Quarterly at an annual rate 24 Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

25 Florida Tables Table 6. Personal Income-Annual Billions Current Dollars Personal Income Wages & Salaries Other Labor Income Nonfarm Farm Property Income Transfer Payments Social Insurance Billions 2009 $ Personal Income Wages & Salaries Other Labor Income Nonfarm Farm Property Income Transfer Payments Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations Retail Sales (Billions $) Real Retail Sales (Billions 2009$) Institute for Economic Competitiveness 25

26 Florida Tables Table 6. Personal Income-Annual Billions Current Dollars Personal Income Wages & Salaries Other Labor Income Nonfarm Farm Property Income Transfer Payments Social Insurance Billions 2009 $ Personal Income Wages & Salaries Other Labor Income Nonfarm Farm Property Income Transfer Payments Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations Retail Sales (Billions $) Real Retail Sales (Billions 2009$) Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

27 Florida Tables Table 6. Personal Income-Annual Billions Current Dollars Personal Income Wages & Salaries Other Labor Income Nonfarm Farm Property Income Transfer Payments Social Insurance Billions 2009 $ Personal Income Wages & Salaries Other Labor Income Nonfarm Farm Property Income Transfer Payments Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations Retail Sales (Billions $) Real Retail Sales (Billions 2009$) Institute for Economic Competitiveness 27

28 Florida Tables Table 6. Personal Income-Annual Billions Current Dollars Personal Income Wages & Salaries Other Labor Income Nonfarm Farm Property Income Transfer Payments Social Insurance Billions 2009 $ Personal Income Wages & Salaries Other Labor Income Nonfarm Farm Property Income Transfer Payments Social Insurance New Passenger Car & Truck Registrations Retail Sales (Billions $) Real Retail Sales (Billions 2009$) Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

29 Florida Charts 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% Florida & U.S. Unemployment Rate (%) 2.0% FL Unemployment Rate U.S. Unemployment Rate Florida Construction Employment (Thousands) Institute for Economic Competitiveness 29

30 Florida Charts 6% Florida Consumer Price Index (% change year ago) 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% FL CPI Florida Education & Health Services Employment (Thousands) Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

31 Florida Charts Florida Federal Government Employment (Thousands) Florida Financial Activities Employment (Thousands) Institute for Economic Competitiveness 31

32 Florida Charts Florida Information Employment (Thousands) % Florida Gross State Product (percent ch. year ago) 11% 7% 2% -2% -6% FL Gross State Product Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

33 Florida Charts Florida Housing Starts (Thousands) Total Private Housing Starts Florida Leisure & Hospitality Employment (Thousands) Institute for Economic Competitiveness 33

34 Florida Charts Florida Manufacturing Employment (Thousands) % 20% 10% 0% New Passenger Car & Light Truck Registrations (percent ch. year ago) -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

35 Florida Charts 9% Florida Personal Income (percent ch. year ago) 4% -1% -5% -10% Florida Professional & Business Services Employment (Thousands) Institute for Economic Competitiveness 35

36 Florida Charts 10% Florida Real Gross State Product (percent ch. year ago) 5% 0% -5% -10% Florida State & Local Government Employment (Thousands) Florida Trade, Transportation & Utilities Employment (Thousands) Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

37 Florida Charts 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% Florida Unemployment Rate (percent) 0.0% Unemployment Rate Florida Population (Thousands) Florida Employment (Thousands) Wage & Salary Employment Institute for Economic Competitiveness 37

38 Florida News Summaries Infighting threatens sale of Florida marijuana dispensary Aphria, a Canadian publicly traded cannabis conglomerate, and South Florida s Delavaco Group announced a planned acquisition of Chestnut Hill Tree Farm. Aphria s deal to buy Florida cannabis cultivation and distribution license, one of seven in the state, has been valued at $177 million. An agreement was reached by Aphria, Delavaco, and Chestnut Hill Tree Hill Farm to turn over CHT Medical s operations in exchange for $60 million; the deal was later postponed due to infighting. Source: Miami Herald, April 27, 2017 AAA: Florida gas prices reach 20-month high but headed lower The average per-gallon price of unleaded gas in Florida was $2.46 in the month of April. Gas prices are expected to drop following the drop in crude oil below $50 a barrel. The drop in oil prices comes amid pessimism that OPEC will extend its November agreement to support higher prices and production cuts. Source: Sun Sentinel, April 24, 2017 Florida jobless rate drops to 4.5 percent as expanding companies scramble to find more workers Florida s unemployment rate fell from 4.8 percent in March to 4.5 percent in April, the lowest rate since November of Florida s unemployment rate is slightly higher than the national unemployment rate, which comes in at 4.4 percent. The Tampa area leads Florida in job openings, adding 2,300 jobs since March 2017 and 33,400 since April of Source: Tampa Bay Times, May 17, 2017 Florida ranks fourth in drawing private equity dollars In 2016, $41.8 billion in funds were invested into 219 Florida-based companies, supporting 33,733 jobs. Florida ranked fourth in the nation for the number of companies receiving investment, following California, Texas, and New York. Nationally, there was more than $644 billion invested in U.S. companies in 2016, with 60 percent of that capital going to information technology and business services. Source: Miami Herald, June 1, 2017 Wal-Mart bolsters area footprint with two new warehouses, 2,000 jobs Wal-Mart said it will hire about 450 workers for the new 650,000-square-foot, $145 million Cocoa distribution center. Wal-Mart received about $12.5 million in economic incentives from Polk County for warehouse facilities in Cocoa and Davenport. Also, Wal-Mart received another $850,000 in target industry tax credits from the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity. Source: Orlando Sentinel, May 23, Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

39 Deltona Daytona Beach Ormond Beach PROFILES The Deltona Daytona Ormond Beach MSA is comprised of Volusia and Flagler Counties. It is located on the east coast of Florida and is notable for special events that occur throughout the year such as Bike Week. It is home to NASCAR headquarters and the Daytona International Speedway which hosts popular races such as the Daytona 500. QUICK FACTS: Volusia County population estimate of 500,800 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Flagler County population estimate of 99,956 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Civilian labor force of 297,359 in May 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database). An unemployment rate of 4.3% as of May 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 12,649 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: Volusia County Schools 7,503 Halifax Health 4,709 Florida Hospital Volusia-Flagler Market 3,256 County of Volusia 3,341 Daytona State College 1,568 Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University 1,423 Florida Health Care Plans, Inc. 916 Frontier Communications 800 Department of Transportation 700 Bert Fish Medical Center 700 Source: Volusia County Department of Economic Development and Enterprise Florida OUTLOOK SUMMARIES The Deltona Daytona Ormond Beach Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators measured in this forecast relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income is expected to average 5.3 percent growth, while the real per capita income level will average $37,300. The average annual wage will be the second lowest of the studied areas at $45,600. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 4.2 percent. Population growth will average 1.6 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at an average level of 16, million dollars. The employment growth rate is expected to average 2.1 percent each year. Unemployment will average 4.3 percent. The Deltona MSA will experience the most growth in the Construction and Mining sector, with an average growth rate of 5.8 percent annually. The Professional and Business sector will see the second highest average growth in the Deltona MSA at 3.9 percent annually. The Education and Health Services and Financial sectors follow with an average annual growth rate of 2.4 percent and 1.7 percent, respectively. No sector is expected to experience a decline. METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Daytona properties with unpaid fines could face foreclosure Daytona has plans to crack down on unpaid code violation fine payments that go back as far as 1997, totaling $4.46 million across 395 cases. A large portion of those who owe fines must pay ten thousand or more. If fines continue to be left unpaid, properties may be foreclosed. Daytona Beach has also ramped up code enforcement efforts in other areas such as proper rental property licensing and rundown buildings. City Commissioner Aaron Delgado said, People will see that we re serious, and hopefully they ll pay their fines and make repairs. We won t tolerate people who just let liens back up and do nothing. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, May 14, 2017 Institute for Economic Competitiveness 39

40 Deltona Daytona Beach Ormond Beach International Speedway Corp. reports rise in revenues, earnings International Speedway Corp. saw a total of $147.9 million in revenues in the first quarter of 2017, which is an increase of $5.3 million compared to the first quarter of The first quarter of 2017 also resulted in $21.3 million in net income, which is an increase of $1.5 million compared to quarter one of This increase can be attributed to increased sales in food and beverage, merchandise, and tickets, along with sponsorships and broadcasting revenue. Ticket sales have decreased compared to the same time one year ago by approximately $520,000. International Speedway Corp CFO Greg Motto believes attendance was influenced by unfavorable weather at support events leading up to the Daytona 500. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, April 4, 2017 March unemployment rate falls in Volusia, Flagler The unemployment rate in Volusia County stood at 4.5% in March of 2017, falling from 5% at the same time last year. Excluding agriculture, a total of 7,772 jobs were added to the area in the last year. In Flagler County, the unemployment rate was 4.8% in March of 2017, compared to 5.5% in March of Excluding agriculture, a total of 1,469 jobs were added to the area in the last year. While the leisure and hospitality and information industries lost jobs, other industries gained jobs especially in trade, transportation and utilities and education and health services. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, April 21, 2017 Property values on the rise in Volusia, Flagler Property values in Volusia and Flagler Counties are forecasted to see a great increase, especially in Volusia. An 8.1% increase in property value is expected to occur in Volusia County during 2017, a $3.8 million increase in value. In Flagler County, values are expected to increase by 4.9%. Larry Bartlett, a property appraiser in Volusia, stated, I think we re back from where we were in residential prices. Actually, we re sort of going beyond where the typical 4.65-percent annual raise would take us Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, June 3, 2017 Volusia hotel occupancy rises in April Hotel occupancy rose by approximately 9% compared to April of last year in Volusia County. In addition to the occupancy rate, average daily hotel room rates and revenue earned per room has also improved in April compared to the same time last year. The average room rate increased by 6% and revenue per room increased by 15%. Evelyn Fine, president of Mid-Florida Marketing & Research, said, We had a terrific month. With Easter coming in April, we knew it would affect both months, March and April We did extremely well on family spring vacations in April. Source: Daytona Beach News Journal, May 24, Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

41 Deltona Daytona Beach Ormond Beach Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government % 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% Florida & Deltona-Daytona Beach Unemployment Rate (percent) 2.0% FL Unemployment Rate Deltona Unemployment Rate Deltona-Daytona Beach Payroll Employment (Thousands) Deltona Payroll Employment Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $) Real Gross Metro Product 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% Deltona-Daytona Beach Real Personal Income (percent change year ago) -10.0% Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness 41

42 Deltona Daytona Beach Ormond Beach Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

43 Deltona Daytona Beach Ormond Beach Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 43

44 Deltona Daytona Beach Ormond Beach Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

45 Deltona Daytona Beach Ormond Beach Annual Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 45

46 Deltona Daytona Beach Ormond Beach Quarterly Outlook for Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL June Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

47 Gainesville PROFILES The Gainesville MSA is comprised of Alachua and Gilchrist Counties and is located in the centralnorth portion of the state. This Metro is home to the University of Florida and the Florida Museum of Natural History, Florida s official natural history museum. QUICK FACTS: Metro population estimate of 270,382 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Alachua County population estimate of 253,451 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Gilchrist County population estimate of 16,931 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Civilian labor force of 142,605 in May 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database). An unemployment rate of 3.4% as of May 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 4,916 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: University of Florida 27,870 UFHealth 12,000 Alachua County School Board 4,200 Veterans Affairs Medical Center 3,500 City of Gainesville 2,270 Publix Supermarkets 2,160 North Florida Regional Medical Center 2,100 Gator Dining Services 1,200 Nationwide Insurance Company 950 Wal-Mart Stores 910 Source: Gainsville Area Chamber of Commerce OUTLOOK SUMMARIES The Gainesville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show mixed levels of growth in most of the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income growth will see an average of 5.7 percent growth, the fifth lowest of the studied MSAs. Real per capita income level is expected to average $40,600. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 4.6 percent, the highest of the studied MSAs, while the average annual wage level will be at $52,500. Population growth will be the lowest of the studied areas at 0.8 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be the second lowest of the studied MSAs at an average level of 11, million dollars. Gainesville will see an average employment growth rate of 1.7 percent annually, the third lowest growth of the MSAs. The Gainesville MSA will, however, maintain the lowest average unemployment rate of the MSAs studied, at 3.3 percent. The fastest growing sector in the area will be the Construction and Mining sector, with an average growth rate of 4.9 percent annually. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector with an average annual growth rate of 4.0 percent. The Federal Government sector will experience a decline, with average annual growth rate of -1.4 percent. METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Local artisan-aimed app debuts May 1 After the launch of a new online platform, local Gainesville artisans will have a place to showcase their talents and connect to the public. Talents range from baking to painting and will help connect people who are interested in what is being offered. This new platform will make it easier for unique artisans, like custom furniture designers, to sell their products and services. The site will help connect users to artisans websites and is focused on bringing the people to the artisan in the easiest way possible. All of the different groups involved in this new online platform have the same end goal: empowering local makers. Source: Gainesville Sun, April 23, 2017 Institute for Economic Competitiveness 47

48 Gainesville Eateries slated for Celebration Pointe, The Park Avenue Several new restaurants will be open in the fall for the grand opening of Celebration Pointe s first phase. One is Rascal Flatts Bar & Grill, which will serve food picked out by the band and will be a venue for live music. This music-stars chain will be alongside others including Jimmy Buffet s Margaritaville and Toby Keith s I Love This Bar. Miller s Ale House, a Reggae Shack Café, and Kilwins Quality Confections will join the shops at Celebration Point. The shops on Park Avenue will soon be home to Taco Del Mar, Bangkok Square, Dunkin Donuts, and Baskin Robbins. A Bahama Breeze Island Grille is also set to open a Gainesville location in late July. Source: Gainesville Sun, June 1, 2017 New subdivisions crowd southwest Alachua County The outskirts of Gainesville are rapidly growing and developers are planning on several more neighborhoods west of the city. The housing market in this area is extremely hot, and residential development will continue to boom in the future. Suggestions have been made to push the urban s city boundary father west than it currently is. This would significantly help with schools, who are anticipated to reach maximum capacity shortly, roadways which are already experiencing major traffic backups, and other infrastructure that will soon be brought up. Source: Gainesville Sun, May 7, 2017 The camp was intended for residents in Palm Beach County who would take buses to Micanopy and explore a completely different part of Florida. The majority of campers recently had been coming from nearby cities in North Florida instead of Palm Beach. The camp is comprised of an Olympic size pool, canoeing, and a ropes course and will hopefully continue to operate as a camp or recreational facility under new owners. Source: Gainesville Sun, May 30, 2017 Full-fledged Whole Foods coming to Gainesville Whole Foods, the Austin, Texas based organic grocery store, recently changed track from its initial plans of building a smaller store aimed at young adult shoppers to a full size store at 3490 SW Archer Road in Gainesville. Whole Foods will now take up 40,000 square feet of the 88,813 total square-foot building. Gainesville will become one of the first 13 cities to open a Whole Foods targeted to draw in a younger, hurried shopper with lower prices and a quicker shopping experience. Whole Foods will be in the Butler Town Center s commercial center along with a Regal Cinema and P.F. Chang s restaurant. With more than 465 stores and 91,000 employees in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, Whole Foods is the largest and one of the best known organic and natural food supermarkets. Source: Gainesville Sun, April 21, 2017 Micanopy s YMCA Camp McConnell up for auction Since 1968, YMCA of the Palm Beaches has owned and operated YMCA Camp McConnell in Micanopy. The 211-acre property will soon be up for auction, since camper registration has dwindled over the years. 48 Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

49 Gainesville Gainesville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government % 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% Florida & Gainesville Unemployment Rate (percent) 2.0% FL Unemployment Rate Gainesville Unemployment Rate Gainesville Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $) Real Gross Metro Product Gainesville Payroll Employment (Thousands) 15.0% Gainesville Real Personal Income (percent change year ago) % % % Gainesville Payroll Employment -5.0% Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness 49

50 Gainesville Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

51 Gainesville Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 51

52 Gainesville Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

53 Gainesville Annual Outlook for Gainesville, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 53

54 Gainesville Quarterly Outlook for Gainesville, FL June Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

55 Jacksonville PROFILES The Jacksonville MSA is comprised of Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau and St. Johns counties. It is located on the northeast coast of Florida and is home to several major U.S. military bases, such as the Jacksonville Naval Air Station, as well as shipyards, the University of North Florida, and the Jacksonville International Airport. QUICK FACTS: Metro population estimate of 1,394,624 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Baker County population estimate of 27,013 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Clay County population estimate of 196,399 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Duval County population estimate of 885,855 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Nassau County population estimate of 75,710 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). St. Johns County population estimate of 209,647 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Civilian labor force of 759,551 in May 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database). An unemployment rate of 3.8% as of May 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 28,871 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: Naval Air Station Jacksonville 25,240 Duval County Public Schools 14,480 Naval Station Mayport 9,000 City of Jacksonville 8,820 Baptist Health Systems 8,270 Bank of America Merrill Lynch 8,000 Florida Blue 6,500 Mayo Clinic 4,970 Citi 4,200 JP Morgan Chase 4,200 Source: City of Jacksonville Office of Economic Development OUTLOOK SUMMARIES The Jacksonville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see moderate growth in most of the economic indicators, relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income will see an average growth rate of 5.9 percent. The real per capita income level is expected to average $44,200, the third highest of the twelve studied MSAs. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.8 percent, the second lowest of the studied MSAs, while the average annual wage level is expected to be $57,500. Population growth will be moderate at an average annual rate of 1.5 percent. Gross Metro Product will be at a level of 69, million dollars. Employment growth is expected to average 2.5 percent annually. Unemployment will average 3.6 percent in the MSA. The fastest growing sector in the Jacksonville MSA will be Construction and Mining, which will see an average annual growth rate of 5.0 percent. Following that sector is the Professional and Business Services sector, with an average annual growth rate of 4.9 percent, and then the Leisure and Education and Health Services sectors, with an average growth rate of 2.8 and 2.5 percent, respectively. The Federal Government sector is expected to decline, with average annual growth rate of -1.0 percent. METRO NEWS SUMMARIES More Jacksonville kids to access city-funded camps this summer One million dollars in additional funding will be used for summer camp programs in Jacksonville. Mayor Lenny Curry made this announcement to help alleviate concerns about there being not enough city-funded camps for children. Jacksonville Children s Commission wanted to improve the quality of the programs and rebid camp contracts; this would result in fewer locations and fewer kids that could be serviced. Now with the additional money, about 1,700 more kids and 24 more camp locations will be funded. Source: Florida Times Union, June 2, 2017 Institute for Economic Competitiveness 55

56 Jacksonville Banking, finance seeks to add 50 jobs to the Southbank An Australian based international finance and banking company opened its first office in Jacksonville last year. The company, Macquarie, is hoping to add 50 new jobs if it receives up to $50,000 in city incentives. The office in Riverplace Tower on the Southbank could soon have a human resources and business services group, where the 50 new jobs would be placed, with an average salary of $56,160. The proposal includes a tax refund of $5,000 per employee; the city would be responsible for $50,000, and the rest would come from the state. The proposal has already been approved by the mayor s Budget Review Committee and will go to the City Council next. Source: Florida Times Union, May 8, 2017 Senior living center planned for Tamaya A new development at Beach and Kernan Boulevards in Jacksonville has a huge price tag of $40 million. The facility will be called Grand Living at Tamaya and will be a new senior living center. The facility will consist of 165 units of independent, memory, and assisted living care. It will have five dining areas (including casual and formal, along with a bistro), a fitness center with personal trainers, grand lounge, and a 150-seat performance theater. Construction is expected to start in October and is estimated to take about 16 months. Source: Florida Times Union, June 2, 2017 A meeting between Jacksonville officials and the company s officials consisted of discussing incentives, an overview of transportation, and state and local options. They also toured Imeson International Industrial Park, one of the largest industrial parks in Jacksonville, and possibly a potential finalist for the facility. If the unnamed company does pick Jacksonville as the site for its facility, they intend to hire at least 800 employees. Source: Jacksonville Business Journal, April 21, 2017 Owners of The Roost to open another new restaurant this summer in Jacksonville The Local, a 70-seat restaurant, will be opening mid-to-late June at 4578 San Jose Blvd. in Jacksonville. The idea is to bring a big city café to Jacksonville using fresh ingredients and serving standard items with unique twists. It will be open seven days a week from 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. and will serve breakfast, lunch, dinner, coffee, fresh-squeezed juice, craft beer, and smoothies. An exclusive espresso-based coffee has been created and will only be served at The Local. The seating will consist of inside seats, individual tables, a farm table, couches, two bar areas, and an outdoor patio with a fenced in grassy area for children to run around outside. Source: Florida Times Union, May 5, 2017 Jacksonville in running for another major distribution facility A 1.3 million square-foot facility is up for grabs and Jacksonville could potentially be the home. Two out of the four potential sites are located in Jacksonville are in the running for an unnamed company s distribution center. 56 Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

57 Jacksonville Jacksonville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government % 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% Florida & Jacksonville Unemployment Rate (percent) 2.0% FL Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Unemployment Rate Jacksonville Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $) Real Gross Metro Product Jacksonville Payroll Employment (Thousands) 10.0% Jacksonville Real Personal Income (percent change year ago) % % % Jacksonville Payroll Employment -10.0% Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness 57

58 Jacksonville Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

59 Jacksonville Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 59

60 Jacksonville Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

61 Jacksonville Annual Outlook for Jacksonville, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 61

62 Jacksonville Quarterly Outlook for Jacksonville, FL June Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

63 Lakeland Winter Haven PROFILES The Lakeland Winter Haven MSA is comprised only of Polk County. It is located in the westerncenter of the state and is heavily agriculturally based, especially in citrus. Lakeland is the home to Legoland Florida and is also the location of Publix Supermarket headquarters. Each year the Detroit Tigers host spring training at Joker Marchant Stadium. Lakeland is also home to Florida Polytechnic University, the newest member of the State University System. QUICK FACTS: Population estimate of 623,009 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Civilian labor force of 294,486 in May 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database). An unemployment rate of 4.4% as of May 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 12,935 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: Publix Super Markets, Inc. 6,644 Lakeland Regional Medical Center 4,540 City of Lakeland 2,600 GEICO 2,300 Watson Clinic 1,600 GC Services 1,000 Rooms To Go 900 Saddle Creek Logistics 625 Stryker Sustainability Solutions 600 Source: Lakeland Economic Development Council OUTLOOK SUMMARIES The Lakeland Winter Haven Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low levels of growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow moderately at 5.4 percent annually, while the real per capita income level will average $32,800, the lowest of the twelve MSAs. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.8 percent, and the average annual wage level is expected to be at $49,400. Population growth is expected to average 1.5 percent annually. Gross Metro Product will be at an average level of 19, million dollars. Employment growth is expected to average 2.0 percent annually. The unemployment rate for the metro will average 4.3 percent, the second highest of the twelve forecasted MSAs. The Construction and Mining sector is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 4.1 percent annual growth. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector averaging 4.0 percent annual growth, and the Federal Government and State and Local Government sectors averaging 1.6 and 1.5 percent, respectively. No sector will experience a decline. METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Department of Environmental Protection warning letter: BS Ranch may have committed 27 violations Mary Yeargan, district director of Florida Department of Environmental Protection, wrote a letter to BS Ranch, informing that BS Ranch may have a total of 27 violations committed through the operation of their business. The violations cover being unsuccessful in treating and managing human waste, providing up-to-date operation plans, as well as addressing offsite odors promptly. BS Ranch has faced multiple citations for odor complaints, though they have recently dwindled. Brandy Stanton, president of BS Ranch, is working with the DEP to resolve this matter. Source: The Ledger, May 14, 2017 Institute for Economic Competitiveness 63

64 Lakeland Winter Haven Legoland Florida opens Beach Retreat extendedstay bungalows in Winter Haven While Legoland had previously only run Legoland Hotel, a newer accommodation option called Beach Retreat opened in April, which was a few weeks ahead of schedule, and the project remained on budget. Beach Retreat hosts a total of 83 bungalows with cheaper prices when compared to the Legoland Hotel and will vary by the season. A total of 250 employees will be hired for the beach-themed accommodation. Legoland General Manager Adrian Jones stated, I think the strategy is pretty clear that themed accommodations, which we re very, very good at, really does fuel growth in the park and also in the immediate area because it s all about keeping people longer. Source: The Ledger, April 7, 2017 New home construction in Polk continues at a blistering pace Current single-family home construction has set a pace projecting over 4,000 permits in 2017 in Polk County. This past year, Polk County issued 3,282 permits for single-family homes. A total of 987 permits have been issued for single-family homes in the first quarter of 2017, which is a 39% increase year over year. In March of 2017, 39.6% more single-family permits were issued compared to March of Nationally, 13.5% more single-family permits were issued in March of 2017 compared to the same time last year. Source: The Ledger, April 23, 2017 Plans submitted for downtown Winter Haven s 1st hotel Though the brand name has not yet been released, Winter Haven will be welcoming its first downtown hotel. The new hotel is part of Winter Haven s plans to attract events and visitors to the downtown area. In addition to the hotel, the city has also obtained Nora Mayo Hall for event space and in 2019, a field house is planned to open for sporting and business events. Katie Worthington, CEO of the Greater Winter Haven Chamber of Commerce, commented on the planned hotel, stating, Once you get into the economic analysis and the need for space, it s not a stretch at all to put it downtown. I think one area where you ll see this shine is with corporate travel. Source: The Ledger, May 7, 2017 Wildwood Antique Mall in North Lakeland sells old merchandise but is not old-fashioned Wildwood Antique Mall, owned by Manny Pesco, has been in operation since 2011 and is one of four Wildwood Mall locations that, when combined, made $4 million in gross sales last year. Wildwood rents out space to antique vendors for $2.35 per square foot for regular space and for $2.55 per square foot for electric-supplied space. Wildwood offers a total of 300 rental spaces, with 280 currently rented out. While most of its customers are 50 years of age or older, millennials make up a growing share of the market. Source: The Ledger, May 14, Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

65 Lakeland Winter Haven Lakeland Winter Haven MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government % 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% FL Unemployment Rate Lakeland Unemployment Rate Florida & Lakeland Unemployment Rate (percent) Lakeland Payroll Employment (Thousands) Lakeland Payroll Employment Lakeland Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $) Real Gross Metro Product 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Lakeland Real Personal Income (percent change year ago) -6.0% Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness 65

66 Lakeland Winter Haven Annual Outlook for Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

67 Lakeland Winter Haven Annual Outlook for Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 67

68 Lakeland Winter Haven Annual Outlook for Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

69 Lakeland Winter Haven Annual Outlook for Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 69

70 Lakeland Winter Haven Quarterly Outlook for Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL June Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

71 Miami Fort Lauderdale West Palm Beach PROFILES The Miami Fort Lauderdale West Palm Beach MSA is comprised of Miami-Dade County, Broward County, and Palm Beach County. Located on the southeast coast of Florida, Miami is home to the Port of Miami: the largest cruise ship port in the world and one of nation s busiest cargo ports. Miami is also home to many sports teams including the Miami Dolphins, the Miami Heat, the Florida Marlins and the Florida Panthers, as well as many institutions of higher education including the University of Miami and Florida International University. QUICK FACTS: Metro area population estimate of 5,828,191 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Miami-Dade County population estimate of 2,617,176 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Broward County population estimate of 1,838,844 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Palm Beach County population estimate of 1,372,171 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Civilian labor force of 3,150,611 in May 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database). An unemployment rate of 4.2% as of May 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 132,803 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: Miami-Dade County Public School 48,571 Miami-Dade County 29,000 Federal Government 19,500 Florida State Government 17,100 University of Miami 16,000 Baptist Health South Florida 13,376 Jackson Health System 12,571 Publix Super Markets 10,800 American Airlines 9,000 Florida International University 8,000 Miami-Dade College 6,200 Source: The Beacon Council OUTLOOK SUMMARIES The Miami Fort Lauderdale West Palm Beach Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) area is expected to show mixed levels of growth in the economic indicators. Personal income is expected to grow an average of 5.4 percent annually. The average real per capita income level of $50,000 is the second highest in the areas studied. Average annual wage growth will be 3.6 percent, the lowest of the MSAs; however, the average annual wage level is expected to be $60,700, the highest of the studied areas. Miami is expected to average a population growth of 1.1 percent each year. The area has the highest Gross Metro Product of the MSAs studied at an average level of 309, million dollars. Employment is expected to grow at an average rate of 2.1 percent each year, while unemployment is expected to be at an average rate of 3.8 percent. Miami s fastest growing sectors are expected to be the Construction and Mining sector and the Professional and Business Services sector at an average rate of 5.9 and 4.2 percent annually, respectively. The Federal Government sector will experience a decline, with average annual growth rate of -0.2 percent. METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Palm Beach County companies game changers in orthopedics and cancer, economic development agency says Paley Institute in West Palm Beach and Sensus Healthcare in Boca Raton are touted as game changers in the healthcare industry and have been credited with bringing medical tourism to Palm Beach County. The Paley Institute performs 1,500 surgeries per year and serves patients coming from all 50 states and 90 different countries. Patients that come to the Paley Institute have booked 5,000 nights in Palm Beach County hotels, as well as brought business to the county s restaurants and pharmacies. Source: Sun Sentinel, April 19, 2017 Institute for Economic Competitiveness 71

72 Miami Fort Lauderdale West Palm Beach South Florida business owners have been growing revenue and hiring, survey shows 70 percent of business owners in Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Counties reported higher revenues over the past sixth months. 57 percent of business owners reported that they hired additional full-time employees percent of South Florida participants in the Entrepreneur s Organization survey were willing to launch a business in today s economic environment. Source: Miami Herald, April 11, 2017 Real estate buyers from China, elsewhere in Asia increasingly eye Miami Chinese buyers have increased their investment in Florida real estate by one percent from 2015 to 2016 and rank in the top tier of foreign purchasers in South Florida. Greg Owens, from Miami International Airport, affirmed that MIA is eager to finalize a new route agreement to allow for direct flights between Miami and the Chinese mainland. Japan has also taken interest in South Florida by making a $220 million purchase of the iconic Miami Tower, one of the largest investments deals for Miami this year. Source: Miami Herald, May 14, 2017 Broward County poised for biggest new hotel boom in years Around a dozen hotels are projected to open in Broward County and will boost room inventory to over 35,000. Early numbers released by the bureau show Broward had million domestic visitors in 2016, up from 4 percent in Currency and economic woes in source markets, like Canada and Brazil, as well as non-traditional accommodation alternatives, such as Airbnb and HomeAway, have hurt traditional hotel occupancy. Source: Sun Sentinel, May 12, 2017 In South Florida, hardest-hit markets now enjoy the biggest gains in home values Margate, Oakland Park, and Lake Worth are three of seven cities in Broward and Palm Beach Counties where median home values have doubled since In Oakland Park, the median value in April was $189,600, 107 percent higher than in April Due to the lack of available land in South Florida, the cost of dirt has soared, driving the values of existing homes higher as well as pricing teachers, police officers, and other middle-class workers out of the market. Source: Sun Sentinel, June 4, Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

73 Miami Fort Lauderdale West Palm Beach Miami - Fort Lauderdale - West Palm Beach MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government % 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% Florida & Miami Unemployment Rate (percent) 2.0% FL Unemployment Rate Miami Unemployment Rate Miami Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $) Real Gross Metro Product Miami Payroll Employment (Thousands) 10.0% Miami Real Personal Income (percent change year ago) % 0.0% -5.0% % Miami Payroll Employment -15.0% Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness 73

74 Miami Fort Lauderdale West Palm Beach Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

75 Miami Fort Lauderdale West Palm Beach Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 75

76 Miami Fort Lauderdale West Palm Beach Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

77 Miami Fort Lauderdale West Palm Beach Annual Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 77

78 Miami Fort Lauderdale West Palm Beach Quarterly Outlook for Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL June Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

79 Naples Immokalee Marco Island PROFILES The Naples Immokalee Marco Island MSA is comprised of Collier County only. Located on the southwest coast of Florida it is notable for numerous recreation and leisure activities. This region is sometimes referred to as the Crown Jewel of Southwest Florida. QUICK FACTS: Population estimate of 339,642 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). A civilian labor force of 169,698 in May 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database). An unemployment rate of 3.7% as of May 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 6,319 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: Naples Community Hospital 4,000 The Ritz-Carlton, Naples 1,110 Gargiulo, Inc. 1,110 Arthrex, Inc 1,056 Collier County Sheriff s Office 1,029 Hometown Inspection Svc. 900 Publix 800 Marriott 700 Naples Grande Beach Resort 700 Downing Frye Realty 550 Source: Collier Business & Economic Development OUTLOOK SUMMARIES The Naples Immokalee Marco Island Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show high levels of growth in the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. The metro area shows the second highest personal income growth among the studied MSAs at an average of 6.6 percent. The real per capita income level is expected to average $77,300, the highest of the MSAs. Average annual wage will be at a level of $57,700. The average annual wage is expected to grow at the second highest rate of the MSAs studied at 4.4 percent. Population growth will average 2.3 percent, the highest in the studied areas, and the Gross Metro Product will average 18, million dollars. Employment growth is expected to average 2.9 percent each year, the second highest of the MSAs. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 4.0 percent. The Construction and Mining sector represents Naples fastest growing sector, growing at an average rate of 6.5 percent each year. The Professional and Business Services sector will follow with an average growth rate of 4.5 percent. None of the sectors are expected to decline. METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Sales momentum at Seaglass continues as construction progresses Sales are booming at the 26-floor, 120-unit Seaglass high-rise tower. The building is 60% sold, with more than $125 million contracts having been processed. Seaglass is being built by Ronto Group. Seaglass residents have access to the Bonita Bay Club, which provides multiple amenities inlcuding a 60,000-square-foot Lifestyle Center, five gold courses, tennis facilities, full-service marina, and a private beach park. With a good location and great amenities, luxury homebuyers will continue to be attracted to Seaglass high-rise tower. Source: Naples Daily News, June 3, 2017 Institute for Economic Competitiveness 79

80 Naples Immokalee Marco Island Wawa announces Naples hiring push Wawa, a chain of convenience stores with gas stations, is slated to open its first store in Naples in August of Wawa has plans to open 25 to 30 new stores each year across Florida for several coming years, and each store will have 50 new employees. Wawa offers competitive pay, and full-time and part-time employees are eligible for health benefits and have opportunity to earn Wawa company stock. Source: Naples Daily News, May 31, 2017 Lee Health celebrates readiness to build medical village in Estero Lee Health conducted a ground-raising ceremony for a $140 million health and wellness village. The site is 30 acres, and it will have a variety of medical clinics, such as an outpatient surgery center and a wellness center. Lee Health originally wanted to include a hospital; however, a legal battle has prevented that for now. Jim Nathan, who is the outgoing president and CEO of Lee Health, has said, This is a journey of not just years but decades. We saw some time ago a term I began to use that south Lee County, from a health perspective, was emerging as an outpost, not an in-post. Source: Naples Daily News, May 18, 2017 Florida economy we create a heck of a lot of jobs. For every $10 million invested we create 6,000 jobs over 20 years. The program extends credit more freely, but the interest rates are also higher. Furthermore, the payments are added onto a homeowners property tax bill and can lead to liens and foreclosure. Source: Naples Herald, April 17, 2017 Naples City Council Rejects Density Regulations for Workforce Housing Naples City Council moved away from a proposal to relax density regulations, as to allow construction of workforce housing in the city s development district. Workforce housing is designed to be affordable for individuals and families who would usually be unable to afford to live in the area in which they work. This legislation would have affected the area between U.S. 41 and Goodlette-Frank Road. Those opposing the bill argue that relaxing the density regulation would cause Naples to lose its small town feel and that it would reduce quality of life. However, those for the bill argued that it harms essential service personnel. Source: Naples Herald, April 07, 2017 Collier County Reconsidering PACE Loans for Homeowners Collier County Commissioners are relooking at a state program for financing storm-resistant or energy-efficient improvements. Jay Neal, who is the President of Florida Association for Insurance Reform (FAIR), argued that the bill can reduce insurance premiums and utility bills while creating jobs: All these dollars we spend on insurance go offshore. By diverting those funds back into the 80 Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

81 Naples Immokalee Marco Island Naples - Immokalee - Marco Island MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government % 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% FL Unemployment Rate Naples Unemployment Rate Florida & Naples Unemployment Rate (percent) Naples Payroll Employment (Thousands) Naples Payroll Employment Naples Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $) Real Gross Metro Product 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% Naples Real Personal Income (percent change year ago) -20.0% Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness 81

82 Naples Immokalee Marco Island Annual Outlook for Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

83 Naples Immokalee Marco Island Annual Outlook for Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 83

84 Naples Immokalee Marco Island Annual Outlook for Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

85 Naples Immokalee Marco Island Annual Outlook for Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 85

86 Naples Immokalee Marco Island Quarterly Outlook for Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island, FL June Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

87 Ocala PROFILES Comprised of Marion County only, the Ocala MSA is located northwest of the Orlando area and is in the center of the state. The second largest national forest in Florida, the Ocala National Forest, and Silver Springs are two main outdoor attractions in the area. QUICK FACTS: Population estimate of 337,362 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Civilian labor force of 135,858 in May 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database). An unemployment rate of 4.7% as of May 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 6,393 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: Marion County School Board 6,071 Munroe Regional Medical Center 2,648 State of Florida (all departments) 2,600 Wal-Mart 2,370 Ocala Regional Health System 2,020 Publix Super Markets, Inc. 1,488 Marion County Board of County Commissioners 1,462 AT&T 1,000 City of Ocala 994 Lockheed Martin Employees 981 Source: Ocala/Marion County Chamber & Economic Partnership OUTLOOK SUMMARIES The Ocala Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show moderate levels of growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 6.4 percent annually. Real per capita income level is the second lowest of the twelve metros at an average of $34,200. Relative to other metro areas, Ocala will have the lowest average annual wage level at $45,200. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 4.0 percent. The metro has an expected annual average population growth of 1.4 percent. The Gross Metro Product is expected to average 7, million dollars, which is the lowest of the studied areas. Employment growth is expected to average a rate of 2.7 percent annually, the third highest of the studied MSAs. The unemployment rate is estimated to average 4.6 percent, the highest of the researched areas. The Construction and Mining and the Professional and Business Services sectors are expected to be the fastest growing in Ocala, averaging an annual growth rate of 6.1 and 5.7 percent, respectively. This is followed by the Health and Education Services sector with 3.2 percent average annual growth. No sector will experience a decline. METRO NEWS SUMMARIES New store in SW Ocala is Earth Fare s 40th Earth Fare is a grocery chain that emphasizes organic and clean foods. The new store located in Southwest Ocala is 28,000 square feet. The store employs approximately 100 workers, about 80 of whom are part-time. Frank Scorpiniti, president/ceo of Earth Fare, wanted to build the store after he found that a number of Ocala residents were driving up to the Gainesville store. Source: Ocala Star Banner, April 21, 2017 Institute for Economic Competitiveness 87

88 Ocala New snack food company seeks economic incentives Mestizo Foods LLC wants to invest millions into the renovation of the old Golden Flake factory; however, the company also wants $15,000 from the city and county to help receive $120,000 from the state. Later, the company wants to receive $250,000 from the city and county over five years. The company plans to invest $7.3 million on the renovation of the Golden Flake factory, which has been closed since an October fire. Furthermore, the company promises to spend at least $11.6 million on new equipment and to hire at least 50 new full-time employees with an average annual wage of $40,518. Source: Ocala Star Banner, June 01, 2017 County approves medical marijuana ordinance Marion County will allow up to five dispensaries. This number was chosen based on the population of the county. The permits are on a first-come, first-served basis. Commissioner David Moore wanted to let the market decide the number of dispensaries, but Commissioner Michelle Stone and Kathy Bryant wanted to limit the number of dispensaries, as it is an industry that is new to the market. Commission Chairman Carl Zalak said the county should come back in a year to revisit the ordinance and see how things are going. Source: Ocala Star Banner, May 16, 2017 Danny Gawekwad, who owns multiple hotels in Marion County, is chairman of the TDC. He met with officials at the Lakeland Center and learned that the facility has not made money in 35 years. He said, If this can be self-sustaining, great, but if it s not, it will be a headache. Source: Ocala Star Banner, May 11, 2017 HITS plans $1 million in improvements before 2018 Horse Shows in the Sun is a 10 week-long event that has an estimated annual $94 million economic impact locally. Before the 2018 event, HITS plans to invest more than $1 million to construct two commercial barns that will contain 48 stalls. Louisa Barton, who is the director of equine engagement for the Ocala/Marion County Chamber & Economic Partnership, said that there s always room for improvement, and that the CEP is extremely grateful that HITS chose Marion County as its winter home. Source: Ocala Star Banner, April 13, 2017 Tourist council takes next step toward civic center The Tourist Development Council (TDC) is looking to hire a consultant to study the feasibility of building a convention center (special events center or civic center) in Marion County. The study would determine location, cost, and other components. County Commission Chairman Carl Zalak said that a $25 million facility could be financed by bonds that would be paid off using tax revenue over 10 years. 88 Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

89 Ocala Ocala MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government % 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% FL Unemployment Rate Ocala Unemployment Rate Florida & Ocala Unemployment Rate (percent) Ocala Payroll Employment (Thousands) Ocala Payroll Employment Ocala Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $) Real Gross Metro Product Ocala Real Personal Income (percent change year ago) 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness 89

90 Ocala Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

91 Ocala Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 91

92 Ocala Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

93 Ocala Annual Outlook for Ocala, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 93

94 Ocala Quarterly Outlook for Ocala, FL June Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

95 Orlando Kissimmee Sanford PROFILES The Orlando Kissimmee Sanford MSA is comprised of Lake, Orange, Osceola and Seminole Counties. Located in the southern center of the state, this area is home to numerous tourist attractions such as Walt Disney World, Universal Studios and Sea World. It is also home to the Orlando Magic and the Orlando City Soccer Club. Orlando hosts many conventions utilizing some of the biggest hotels in the country and America s second largest convention center. The University of Central Florida, the nation s second largest university, and many other places of higher education also reside in the MSA. QUICK FACTS: MSA population estimate of 2,267,846 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Lake County population estimate of 308,034 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Orange County population estimate of 1,224,267 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Osceola County population estimate of 298,504 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Seminole County population estimate of 436,041 as of July 1, 2013 (Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission). Civilian labor force of 1,301,264 in May 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database). An unemployment rate of 3.6% as of May 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 47,012 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: Walt Disney World Resort 69,000 Orange County Public Schools 22,000 Florida Hospital (Adventist Health) 17,600 Universal Orlando (Comcast) 17,300 Orlando Health 14,310 University of Central Florida 11,078 Seminole County Public Schools 7,786 Orange County Government 7,553 Darden Restaurants Inc. 7,600 Osceola County Public Schools 6,560 SeaWorld Parks & Entertainment 6,032 Lockheed Martin Corporation 5,774 Source: Metro Orlando Economic Development Commission 2013 OUTLOOK SUMMARIES The Orlando Kissimmee Sanford Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show mixed growth in most of the economic indicators. Personal income growth is expected to average 6.7 percent annually, the highest of the twelve Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). The real per capita income level is expected to average $39,300. Average annual wage growth will be 3.8 percent, the third lowest of the studied areas. The average annual wage will be at a level of $54,200. The Orlando MSA will see an average population growth of 1.9 percent, the second highest of the studied MSAs. Gross Metro Product is expected to average at 131, million dollars, the third highest of the studied MSAs. Employment growth is forecasted to average 3.2 percent annually, the highest of the MSAs. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 3.4 percent, the second lowest of the MSAs. In the Orlando area, the fastest growing sector is expected to be the Construction and Mining sector with an average annual growth rate of 7.1 percent. This will be followed by the Professional and Business Services sector, with an average annual growth rate of 5.4 percent, and the Leisure sector at 3.8 percent. None of the sectors are expected to decline. METRO NEWS SUMMARIES New $65M-plus Lake Mary luxury apartments to go vertical this summer As Lake Mary s Midtown district has begun to develop, construction on a Drake at Midtown, a $65 million-plus upscale, five-story, 263-unit apartment community, is set to begin vertical construction in June. The complex is part of Griffin Farms at Midtown, Unicorp National Development Inc. s $200 million mixed-use development. The project, which is estimated to be complete in June 2018, boasts many amenities, including two clubhouses, a 2,180-square-foot pool with spa, bocce ball court, and a fire pit. Source: Orlando Business Journal, April 10, 2017 Institute for Economic Competitiveness 95

96 Orlando Kissimmee Sanford Two local Lockheed Martin divisions land contracts totaling $48.8M Lockheed Martin s Missiles & Fire Control division entered a $31.1 million contract to provide production, systems engineering, and tooling and test equipment support for the U.S. Air Force s Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile. Lockheed s Rotary & Mission Systems division was awarded a $17.7 million contract from the U.S.Navy for production of seven electronic Consolidated Automated Support Systems (ecass). The work on the Air Force contract will all be performed in Orlando and is scheduled for completion on August 31, 2019, while the Navy s contract has a November 2019 completion date. The company already has over 7,000 employees in Orlando, and they are opening up more positions to keep up with the increasing demand from new contracts. Source: Orlando Business Journal, April 28, 2017 Central Florida Expressway Authority s largest plan ever to create 11,000-plus jobs The Central Florida Expressway Authority has adopted a $1.6 billion work plan to be executed over the course of five years. The plan includes provisions for the widening of 40 miles of existing expressways, 60 miles of resurfacing, a new toll system, and new safety initiatives. Larger investments planned include completing CFX s sections of Wekiva Parkway for its scheduled full opening in spring 2018 and setting aside $230 million for the state to use to fund the I-4 Ultimate State Road 408/I-4 Interchange project. These projects are believed to create over 11,000 jobs over the course of five years, contribute $1 billion in GDP for the local economy, and save 32 hours traveling on the expressways each year. Source: Orlando Business Journal, May 12, 2017 Wal-Mart to create hundreds of jobs in Florida with nine new stores Wal-Mart has recently announced that they plan to invest $450 million in Florida, with a substantial portion going towards Central Florida, to create 800 jobs by remodeling 40 existing stores and opening nine new ones. One of the new locations will open in Orlando in fiscal 2017, and construction on a new distribution center for perishable goods in Cocoa is planned to begin later this year as well. These developments have come after Wal-Mart hired over 3,000 employees in Florida by opening more than 20 new stores and remodeling 30 stores throughout the state last year. Source: Orlando Business Journal, May 25, 2017 Tourist tax revenue up 15.8% in April Orange County s tourist tax revenue increased to $24.3 million in April, which is up 15.8% for the same period last year. As for resort tax revenue, the county has collected $155.4 million year to date, which is up 5.5% for this time a year ago. This money is used to promote tourism in Orange County by helping fund projects to attract visitors and upgrade existing tourism facilities. Source: Orlando Business Journal, June 2, Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

97 Orlando Kissimmee Sanford Orlando - Kissimmee - Sanford MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government % 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% FL Unemployment Rate Orlando Unemployment Rate Florida & Orlando Unemployment Rate (percent) Orlando Payroll Employment (Thousands) Orlando Payroll Employment Orlando Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $) Real Gross Metro Product 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Orlando Real Personal Income (percent change year ago) -6.0% Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness 97

98 Orlando Kissimmee Sanford Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

99 Orlando Kissimmee Sanford Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 99

100 Orlando Kissimmee Sanford Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

101 Orlando Kissimmee Sanford Annual Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 101

102 Orlando Kissimmee Sanford Quarterly Outlook for Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL June Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

103 Palm Bay Melbourne Titusville PROFILES The Palm Bay Melbourne Titusville MSA is comprised of Brevard County only. Typically known as Florida s Space Coast, this area is home to the Kennedy Space Center. Located in the central part of Florida s east coast, the region is home to Cape Canaveral Air Force Base, Patrick Air Force Base and government contractors such as Harris Corporation. Like much of Florida, this area is growing fast; Port Canaveral is now a leading cruise ship port. QUICK FACTS: Population estimate of 550,823 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Civilian labor force of 268,804 in May 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database). An unemployment rate of 4.1% as of May 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 11,076 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: Brevard County School Board 9,520 Health First, Inc. 7,800 Harris Corporation 5,890 Brevard County Government 2,380 Department of Defense 2,170 NASA 2,067 Eastern Florida State College 1,590 Rockwell Collins Inc. 1,410 Florida Institute Of Technology 1,280 Northrop Grumman Corporation 1,345 Brevard County Sheriff Office 1,175 Parrish Medical Center 1,075 Wuesthoff Medical Center 1,055 Source: Brevard Economic Development Council, 2011 OUTLOOK SUMMARIES The Palm Bay Melbourne Titusville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income growth is expected to average 5.8 percent each year. Real per capita income levels should average $40,500. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 4.2 percent. Average annual wage levels should be at $56,400. Population growth is expected to be an average of 1.3 percent, and the Gross Metro Product level is expected to average 20, million dollars. Employment growth is forecasted to average 2.2 percent each year. The metro will see an average unemployment rate of 3.9 percent. Construction and Mining is expected to be the fastest growing sector in the area, averaging 5.8 percent growth annually. The Professional and Business Services sector will see the second highest average annual growth rate at 3.9 percent, followed by the Leisure and Education and Health Services sectors, both averaging at 2.3 percent. The Federal Government sector will experience a decline with average annual growth rates of METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Brevard property values rise in robust market Recently released data from the office of Brevard County, Property Appraiser Dan Blickley shows that property values sustained a strong increase through General fund taxable value of property in Brevard stood at $34.29 billion at the end of 2016, an increase of 7.5 percent from $31.91 billion at the start of the year. This bodes well for the county s budget, as revenues from property taxes this year will increase. The county will also see new tax revenues from a healthy number of ongoing construction projects. Source: Florida Today, June 3, 2017 Institute for Economic Competitiveness 103

104 Palm Bay Melbourne Titusville Port Canaveral commissioners proceed with plan to repair cargo piers Port Canaveral commissioners voted unanimously to seek bids for design work on a project to repair the port s North Cargo Piers 1 and 2. The project is expected to cost around $2.5 million and take six to eight months. It will also create about 50 temporary construction jobs. Morton Salt and Seaport Canaveral, the tenants of the two piers, are working with the port to ensure that cargo operations are virtually uninterrupted while the repairs take place. Source: Florida Today, May 26, 2017 Port land deal with Wal-Mart clears way for 450-employee distribution center Wal-Mart has bought a 271-acre site previously owned by Port Canaveral and has committed to building a distribution center and refrigerated warehouse complex on the land. The port sold the land for $5.75 million after buying it for only $1.95 million in In 2016, Wal-Mart was considering buying just 130 acres, but eventually bought all 271. The presence of the distribution center should increase cargo business for the port, as well as create jobs in the region and pave the way for more development in the surrounding communities. Source: Florida Today, May 26, 2017 The budget-slashing has largely been a result of negative news surrounding Visit Florida, which orchestrated a controversial $1 million deal with Miami rapper Pitbull. Source: Florida Today, May 19, 2017 Winners and losers in Brevard s new budget The release of Brevard County s budget plan for 2017 revealed significant budget cuts for many organizations. Officials cited money needed for roads as a main reason for the cutbacks. Among the biggest losers are Brevard Cultural Alliance, which lost $20,000, and emergency financial services, which saw a budget cut of a whopping $168,000. Economic development agencies avoided cuts in the county despite vicious cutbacks at the state level. Several other proposed cuts were not approved, and some were disappointed that the budget was not reduced more. Source: Florida Today, April 29, 2017 Space Florida avoids budget cuts Space Florida, which is tasked with growing aerospace business in the state, received the same funding ($19.5 million) that it did last fiscal year in this year s state budget. The agency s board of directors is relieved to have avoided the legislature s attack on economic development agencies, as the legislature cut Enterprise Florida and Visit Florida s budgets by $7.5 million and $25 million, respectively. 104 Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

105 Palm Bay Melbourne Titusville Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government % 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% FL Unemployment Rate Palm Bay Unemployment Rate Florida & Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville Unemployment Rate (percent) Palm Bay Payroll Employment (Thousands) Palm Bay Payroll Employment Palm Bay Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $) Real Gross Metro Product 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Palm Bay Real Personal Income (percent change year ago) -6.0% Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness 105

106 Palm Bay Melbourne Titusville Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

107 Palm Bay Melbourne Titusville Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 107

108 Palm Bay Melbourne Titusville Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

109 Palm Bay Melbourne Titusville Annual Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 109

110 Palm Bay Melbourne Titusville Quarterly Outlook for Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL June Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

111 Pensacola Ferry Pass Brent PROFILES The Pensacola Ferry Pass Brent MSA is comprised of Escambia County and Santa Rosa County. Located in the northwest corner of Florida bordering Alabama, the region is home to the Pensacola Naval Air Station, Blue Angels, and the National Museum of Naval Aviation. This area has been referred to as the Cradle of Naval Aviation. QUICK FACTS: Metro population estimate of 466,913 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Escambia County population estimate of 305,817 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Santa Rosa County population estimate of 161,096 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). A civilian labor force of 221,477 in May 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database). An unemployment rate of 3.9% as of May 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 8,533 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: Local Government 13,857 Federal Government 7,162 State Government 5,253 Sacred Heart Health System 5,000 Baptist Health Care 3,163 Lakeview 2,000 Ascend Performance Materials 1,400 Gulf Power Company 1,365 West Florida Regional Medical Center 1,300 University of West Florida 1,231 Navy Federal Credit Union 1,200 Sources: Pensacola Chamber of Commerce, Agency for Workforece Innovation, Company web sites, Reference USA OUTLOOK SUMMARIES The Pensacola Ferry Pass Brent Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to see low levels of growth in the economic indicators relative to the twelve other areas studied. Personal income growth is expected to average 5.7 percent each year, the lowest of the twelve studied MSAs. The real per capita income level is expected to average $38,500. The average annual wage growth rate should be 3.9 percent, while the average annual wage level is expected to be $50,300. Population growth will be at an average rate of 0.8 percent, the lowest of the studied MSAs. The Gross Metro Product is expected to average 15, million dollars. Employment growth is expected to average 1.4 percent each year, the lowest of the MSAs. The unemployment rate will average 3.6 percent. The Construction and Mining sector will be the fastest growing sector in Pensacola, with a 4.9 percent average annual growth rate. The Professional and Business Services sector will follow with an average growth rate of 3.1 percent. The Information and Federal Government sectors are expected to experience negative growth with average annual growth rates of -1.6 and -1.8 percent, respectively. METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Economist: High-skilled labor needed for port Rick Harper, a local economist, stated that Port of Pensacola Warehouse 4 would see high returns on investment if the newly purposed area could be filled with high paying jobs requiring greater skills. The mayor of Pensacola, Ashton Hayward, is looking to turn the currently city-owned, general storage warehouse into a marine research center for the Institute for Human & Machine Cognition and maybe University of West Florida. Rick Harper has suggested various way for the nonprofit facility to garner greater economic activity, including possibly working with the military and bringing in private firms on site as well. Source: Pensacola News Journal, May 26, 2017 Institute for Economic Competitiveness 111

112 Pensacola Ferry Pass Brent Passengers on the rise at Pensacola International Airport Overall, Pensacola International Airport saw a total of 805,045 departing passengers in 2016, which is about 6% higher than the number of departures in Though, current airport traffic still falls flat compared to the months before the Great Recession. In the first quarter of 2017, departures were 4.7% greater than the first quarter of New direct flights will be available throughout the season of summer, such as Kansas City to Pensacola, through Southwest Airlines. Source: Pensacola News Journal, May 9, 2017 Pensacola tech training startup Invictus to launch in September What once started as a plan to train her family in technology, Vickie Patterson now plans to open a tech training startup in the Pensacola area in late September of this year. While Patterson is still in the process of researching the market, she plans to offer courses for those from all levels of technological skills. The business is set to open in the soon-to-berelocated Cowork Annex in downtown. Vickie Patterson has substantial experience in the technology industry, having worked for IBM since Source: Pensacola News Journal, May 15, 2017 Gulf Power plans to use the increased funds on improving infrastructure in order to better serve its customers. Source: Pensacola News Journal, April 4, 2017 Santa Rosa needs 1,500 new homes a year to keep up with demand The Home Builders Association of West Florida completed a housing study led by local economist Rick Harper indicating that in order to match population growth in Santa Rosa County, 1,500 homes will need to be built every year for the next eight years. From this needed construction, the study estimates that 5,327 jobs will be created with a total of $288 million in income. When presenting the study s finding, Harper stated, Really, the housing market in Santa Rosa is very healthy at this point in time. There s a rising number of transactions in the new home market and existing home market. Source: Pensacola News Journal, April 24, 2017 Regulators approve Gulf Power rate settlement Gulf Power in Northwest Florida proposed a base-rate increase of $62 million through 2019 with a target return on equity of 10.25%. This settlement was approved by state utility regulators and will be in effect starting July. This was deemed a reasonable settlement by a variety of parties apart of the decision. Gulf Power originally planned to have a base-rate increase of $106.8 million with an 11% return on equity. 112 Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

113 Pensacola Ferry Pass Brent Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation,Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government % 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% FL Unemployment Rate Pensacola Unemployment Rate Florida & Pensacola Unemployment Rate (percent) Pensacola Payroll Employment (Thousands) Pensacola Payroll Employment Pensacola Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $) Real Gross Metro Product 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% Pensacola Real Personal Income (percent change year ago) -8.0% Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness 113

114 Pensacola Ferry Pass Brent Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

115 Pensacola Ferry Pass Brent Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 115

116 Pensacola Ferry Pass Brent Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

117 Pensacola Ferry Pass Brent Annual Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 117

118 Pensacola Ferry Pass Brent Quarterly Outlook for Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL June Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

119 Tallahassee PROFILES The Tallahassee MSA is comprised of Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, and Wakulla Counties. It is located between Pensacola and Jacksonville. Tallahassee is the capital city of Florida and houses Florida State University and Florida A&M University. QUICK FACTS: Metro population estimate of 373,255 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Gadsden County population estimate of 46,194 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Jefferson County population estimate of 14,194 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Leon County population estimate of 281,845 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Wakulla County population estimate of 31,022 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Civilian labor force of 191,980 in May 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database). An unemployment rate of 3.7% as of May 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 7,180 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: State of Florida 24,599 Florida State University 6,119 Leon County Schools 4,550 Tallahassee Memorial HealthCare, Inc. 3,190 City of Tallahassee 2,736 Publix Supermarket 2,102 Florida A&M University 1,923 Leon County 1,919 Walmart Stores Inc. 1,300 Tallahassee Community College 1,144 Source: Economic Development Council of Tallahassee, 2012 OUTLOOK SUMMARIES The Tallahassee Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show low growth in most of the economic indicators relative to other metro areas forecasted in the state. The area should see personal income growth averaging 6.5 percent each year, the third highest of the studied MSAs. Real per capita income levels should average $38,300. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 4.6 percent, and the average annual wage level will be $49,700. Population growth will average 1.3 percent, and the Gross Metro Product will average at a level of 14, million dollars. Employment growth is expected to average 1.6 percent each year. The unemployment rate will average 3.8 percent. The Professional and Business Services sector will be the fastest growing sector in Tallahassee, averaging 4.6 percent annually. The Construction and Mining follows with an average growth rate of 3.6 percent. The Financial sector follows with an average growth rate of 1.9 percent. No sectors are expected to decline. METRO NEWS SUMMARIES City to offer solar subscriptions to utility customers Construction on the $33.2 millon 20-megawatt solar farm south of Tallahassee International Airport is slated to be completed four months after its start date in early May. The city has created a participation plan that would allow their customers to subscribe for solar power without having to spend thousands of dollars installing panels on their roof. Whether they rent or own their homes, customers can sign up for 25, 50, or 100 percent of their power to come from the solar farm. Open enrollment for this program will run from June 1 to December 31. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, April 7, 2017 Institute for Economic Competitiveness 119

120 Tallahassee City approves Frenchtown land sale to housing developer Despite many Frenchtown residents objections, Tallahassee commissioners unanimously approved the sale of a.87-acre lot on Macomb Street to Landmark Properties for $485,000. This is the final piece of land needed to build a fivestory $50-$70 million student housing complex on a 5-acre lot across from the Renaissance Center. According to an FSU economic impact statement, this project will create over 800 job opportunities and a $106 million impact on goods and services. Ben Pingree, director of the Department of Planning, Land, Management and Community Enhancement, said that the project will also create at least $1 million in property tax revenue, half of which will go back into future projects for the Greater Frenchtown/Southside Community Redevelopment Agency. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, April 26, 2017 Westminster breaks ground on apartment homes Westminster Oaks has begun construction on the largest single project in [its] 35-year history. This project includes a $14 million expansion that will add 40 apartments and a $9 million fourstory, 375-space parking garage to Canopy Oaks. This expansion comes after Canopy Oaks apartments sold out within six weeks. With its offerings of spacious one- to three-bedroom units and a swimming pool, tennis court, and fitness center, there are over 500 people on the waitlist for this complex. Canopy Oaks is set to be completed by fall Source: Tallahassee Democrat, May 2, 2017 Bethel, partners granted time on Frenchtown development proposal The Frenchtown Redevelopment Partners has been given six months to develop a mixed-use development along a high-profile location: the 400 block of West Tennessee Street. The project totals 310,000 square feet and is proposed to include four stories of office space, a grocery store, 20 units of townhouses, and four stories of apartments/condos. This proposal is not complete until the Community Redevelopment Agency approves the overall concept and either sells or donates its CRA-owned property for the project. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, May 25, 2017 FSU researchers receive $2.8M for origin of personality traits impacting longevity study Assistant Professor Angelina Sutin from Florida State University s College of Medicine was granted $2.8 million from the National Institutes of Health to research how our personality forms relative to what we know about its consequences on health across the lifespan. Sutin and her team will be conducting a fiveyear study to identify prenatal and childhood neighborhood risk factors that contribute to the development of personality traits that affect healthy aging. She hopes to achieve a better understanding of how conscientiousness and neuroticism emerge in humans, which could help lead to the discovery of new methods of mitigating unwanted behaviors linked to personality. Source: Tallahassee Democrat, June 2, Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

121 Tallahassee Tallahassee MSA Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government % 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% FL Unemployment Rate Tallahassee Unemployment Rate Florida & Tallahassee Unemployment Rate (percent) Tallahassee Payroll Employment (Thousands) Tallahassee Payroll Employment Tallahassee Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $) Real Gross Metro Product 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Tallahassee Real Personal Income (percent change year ago) -6.0% Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness 121

122 Tallahassee Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

123 Tallahassee Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 123

124 Tallahassee Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

125 Tallahassee Annual Outlook for Tallahassee, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 125

126 Tallahassee Quarterly Outlook for Tallahassee, FL June Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

127 Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater PROFILES The Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater MSA is comprised of Hernando, Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas counties. Located centrally on the west coast of Florida, this region includes Tarpon Springs, Sponge Docks, Ybor City, Bush Gardens, the University of South Florida and the University of Tampa. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Tampa Bay Rays call this region home. QUICK FACTS: Metro population estimate of 2,870,569 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Hernando County population estimate of 174,441 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Hillsborough County population estimate of 1,291,578 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Pasco County population estimate of 475,502 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Pinellas County population estimate of 929,048 as of July 1, 2013 (U.S. Census Bureau). Civilian labor force of 1,522,960 in May 2017 (Florida Research and Economic Database). Unemployment rate of 43.8% as of May 2017, not seasonally adjusted. This amounts to 58,039 unemployed people (Florida Research and Economic Database). TOP AREA EMPLOYERS: Hillsborough County School board 29,603 MacDill Air Force Base 15,485 Pinellas County School District 13,905 Hillsborough County Government 9,328 Pasco County School District 9,289 Verizon Communications, Inc. 9,065 University of South Florida 8,353 Tampa International Airport 8,060 Tampa General Hospital 6,900 Publix Food Centers 5,823 Sources: Pasco County School District, Pinellas County School District, 2011 Comprehensive Annual Financial Report: Tampa Port Authority OUTLOOK SUMMARIES The Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is expected to show moderate growth in the economic indicators relative to the other MSAs studied. Personal income growth is expected to be 5.7 percent on average each year, and the real per capita income level will average $42,800. Average annual wage growth is expected to be 3.9 percent, the third highest of the studied MSAs. The average annual wage level will be $57,600. Population growth will average 1.4 percent, and Tampa is forecasted to have the second highest average Gross Metro Product in the studied areas, averaging a level of 132, million dollars. Employment growth is expected to average 2.4 percent annually. The unemployment rate is expected to average 3.5 percent. The fastest growing sector in the Tampa area will be the Construction and Mining sector with a high average annual growth rate of 7.0 percent. This is followed by the Professional and Business Services sector with an average annual growth rate of 4.6 percent, and the Financial and Leisure sectors at 2.4 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively. The Federal Government sector is the only sector expected to see a decline, averaging -0.1 percent. METRO NEWS SUMMARIES Tampa Bay still a leader in home flipping but profits are dropping Although the house-flipping market in Tampa Bay has cooled somewhat, home flippers are still finding success in most Tampa-area ZIP codes. The dip in flips has been widely attributed to rising home prices even for fixer-uppers. This, in turn, has prompted a rise in financing for home flippers as opposed to buying homes with cash. The area ZIP code that saw the highest gross profit was in St. Petersburg, where home flippers bought for a median price of $80,650 and sold for a median price of $279,950. Source: Tampa Bay Times, June 8, 2017 Institute for Economic Competitiveness 127

128 Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater Developers buoyed by sales at Tampa s new Virage condo tower A proposed 24-story condo tower in Tampa has seen robust sales, as it has almost neared the threshold it needs before it can begin construction. Roughly $60 million worth of units are under contract, including a penthouse that is priced at just under $5 million. If the deal goes through, it will be Tampa s most expensive condominium sold in a decade. Developers do worry that their initial success in sales will give the impression that they don t have many units left to offer. In fact, there are a large variety of units still unsold, including a second penthouse. Source: Tampa Bay Times, June 7, 2017 St. Pete Economic Development Corporation lures marketing firm MXTR to town Although it is not yet clear what incentives were used, it appears St. Petersburg Economic Development Corporation has brought its first major business to town as digital marketing company MXTR Automation announced that it will open an office in downtown St. Pete this year. The company plans to fill 20 high-wage creative positions in the next 18 months, which will make up the Pennsylvania company s second location. Mickey Locey, president of MXTR, explained that St. Petersburg s talent pool, downtown lifestyle, and business-friendly tax environment were all factors in the decision. Source: Tampa Bay Times, May 24, 2017 American Arts and Crafts Museum in St. Petersburg ready to build Downtown St. Petersburg is set to see the construction of a new $70 million Museum of the American Arts and Crafts Movement. Construction was expected to begin in January, but permit delays pushed back the start date. The project, designed by Tampa architect Alberto Alfonso, is expected to take over two years to build, but will house a 137,000-square-foot collection of furniture, pottery, tile, metalwork, lighting, photography, and other decorative arts. The museum s founders have already sunk $16 million into the project in property acquisitions and other expenses. Source: Tampa Bay Times, May 11, 2017 Energy company plans solar farm in northeast Pasco Spain-based alternative energy company ESA Renewables has proposed to build and operate a 90-acre solar panel farm in rural Pasco County. The proposed site has previously been hotly contested, as local residents recently prevented the land from being developed for housing by pushing for rural protections. However, some of those same residents have come out in support of the solar farm, which could potentially power some 2,400 homes. Source: Tampa Bay Times, April 27, 2017 Tampa International Airport details $543 million second phase of massive construction plan The newest phase of Tampa International Airport s $2.3 billion renovation and expansion will feature a gas station, a hotel, retail and office space, and a widening of the main road to the airport. Site preparation is scheduled for mid-2018 and should be completed by One of the biggest challenges will be to keep traffic disruption to a minimum, as the airport is still seeing growing passenger numbers. The first phase of the expansion, which will be completed next year, includes a massive rental car facility and a new people mover train. Source: Tampa Bay Times, April 18, Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

129 Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater Industry Location Quotients Total Nonagricultural Employment Total Private Goods Producing Service Producing Private Service Providing Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services Government % 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% Florida & Tampa Unemployment Rate (percent) 2.0% FL Unemployment Rate Tampa Unemployment Rate Tampa Real Gross Metro Product (Millions 2000 $) Real Gross Metro Product Tampa Payroll Employment (Thousands) 10.0% Tampa Real Personal Income (percent change year ago) % % -5.0% Tampa Payroll Employment -10.0% Real Personal Income Institute for Economic Competitiveness 129

130 Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

131 Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 131

132 Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

133 Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater Annual Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL June 2017 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Institute for Economic Competitiveness 133

134 Tampa St. Petersburg Clearwater Quarterly Outlook for Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL June Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 Personal Income (Billions $) Total Personal Income Pct Chg Year Ago Wages and Salaries Nonwage Income Real Personal Income (09$) Pct Chg Year Ago Per Capita Income (Ths) Real Per Capita Income (09$) Average Annual Wage (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Establishment Employment (Place of Work, Thousands, SA) Total Employment Pct Chg Year Ago Manufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Nonmanufacturing Pct Chg Year Ago Construction & Mining Pct Chg Year Ago Trade, Trans, & Utilities Pct Chg Year Ago Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Trans, Wrhsng, & Util Information Pct Chg Year Ago Financial Activities Pct Chg Year Ago Prof & Business Services Pct Chg Year Ago Educ & Health Services Pct Chg Year Ago Leisure & Hospitality Pct Chg Year Ago Other Services Pct Chg Year Ago Federal Government Pct Chg Year Ago State & Local Government Pct Chg Year Ago Other Economic Indicators Population (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Labor Force (Ths) Pct Chg Year Ago Unemployment Rate (%) Total Housing Starts Single-Family Multifamily Florida & Metro Forecast / June 2017

135 Sean Snaith, Ph.D., is the director of the University of Central Florida s Institute for Economic Competitiveness and a nationally recognized economist in the field of business and economic forecasting. Snaith is the recipient of multiple awards for the accuracy of his forecasts, his research and his teaching. He has served as a consultant for local governments and multinational corporations such as Compaq, Dell and IBM. Before joining UCF s College of Business, he held teaching positions at Pennsylvania State University, American University in Cairo, the University of North Dakota and the University of the Pacific. Snaith is frequently interviewed in international, national and regional media. He has been quoted in The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, The New York Times, The Economist and The Guardian and has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business Network, The Nightly News with Brian Williams, Al Jazeera, the BBC and CBC, China Central TV, Sky News, Nippon TV and the Business News Network, based in Toronto. Snaith is a sought-after speaker known for his engaging and humorous presentations. He has built a national reputation for his unique ability to explain complex subject matter in a digestible manner. He earned praise from one business editor for having an uncanny knack of making economics not only understandable but interesting. Sean M. Snaith, PhD Director, Institute for Economic Competitiveness P E ssnaith@ucf.edu Snaith is a member of several economic organizations and national economic forecasting panels, including The Wall Street Journal s Economic Forecasting Survey, the Associated Press Economy Survey, CNNMoney.com s Survey of Leading Economists, USA Today s Survey of Top Economists, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia s Survey of Professional Forecasters, Bloomberg and Reuters. Snaith holds a B.S. in Economics from Allegheny College and an M.A. and Ph.D. in Economics from Pennsylvania State University.

136 UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL FLORIDA INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC COMPETITIVENESS P.O. BOX ORLANDO, FLORIDA PH FX