The ECB and its Watchers XIII. Klaus Regling CEO of EFSF Frankfurt, 10 June 2011
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1 The ECB and its Watchers XIII Klaus Regling CEO of EFSF Frankfurt, 10 June 2011
2 Is the real economy disconnected from financial market developments? 3 Real GDP per capita growth (changes in percent) Euro area United States Source: European Commission, Spring Forecast
3 Positive effects of national adjustment measures are already visible 140 Unit Labour Costs relative to Germany, nominal (1998 Q1=100) Q1 1998Q3 1999Q1 1999Q3 Fiscal balance, general government (as % of GDP) Portugal Ireland Greece f 2011f 2012f 2000Q1 2000Q3 2001Q1 2001Q3 2002Q1 2002Q3 2003Q1 2003Q3 2004Q1 2004Q3 2005Q1 2005Q3 2006Q1 2006Q3 2007Q1 2007Q3 2008Q1 2008Q3 Source: European Commission Spring Forecast Unit labour costs: ECB and our own calculations Q1 2009Q Q1 2010Q3 Portugal Greece Ireland Germany Current account balance (as % of GDP) Portugal Ireland Greece f 2011f 2012f
4 Actions taken to improve EMU functioning and prevent future crisis At the national level Fiscal consolidation/debt reduction Structural reforms to enhance growth potential Measures to avoid excessive economic imbalances Improving the health of the banking sector At the European level Strengthening financial market supervision Increasing fiscal policy coordination Broader macro-economic surveillance (Excessive Imbalance Procedure) Euro Plus Pact New crisis resolution mechanism 3
5 Preserving financial stability in Europe European Financial Stability Package 750bn Support in the form of loans European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism EFSM 60 bn Available to all 27 EU member states European Financial Stability Facility EFSF 440 bn (in guarantees by EAMS) For EAMS International Monetary Fund 250 bn max Up to half the amount drawn from EFSF and EFSM 4
6 Financial assistance programme for Ireland Objectives of the programme Immediate strengthening and comprehensive overhaul of the banking sector Ambitious fiscal adjustment to restore fiscal sustainability, correction of excessive deficit by 2015 Growth enhancing reforms, in particular on the labour market, to allow a return to a robust and sustainable growth Financing The total 85 billion of the programme will be financed as follows: 17.5 bn contribution from Ireland (Treasury and NPRF*) 67.5 bn external support 22.5bn from IMF 22.5bn from EFSM 17.7bn from EFSF + bilateral loans from the UK ( 3.8bn), Denmark ( 0.4bn) and Sweden ( 0.6bn) 35 billion 50 billion Ireland IMF EFSM EFSF+bilateral loans Disbursements will be made over 3 years with an average loan maturity of 7½ years * National Pension Reserve Fund 5
7 Financial assistance programme for Portugal Objectives of the programme Restore fiscal sustainability through ambitious fiscal adjustment Enhance growth and competitiveness via reforms and measures, i.e. Freeze govt. sector wages until 2013, reduce pensions over 1500 Reform unemployment benefits and reduce tax deductions Execute an ambitious privatisation programme (TAP, Caixa Seguros ) % of GDP 9.1 The programme s budget deficit objectives Improve liquidity and solvency of financial sector Banking support scheme of up to 12 billion to provide necessary capital for banks to bring Tier 1 capital ratios to 10% by end 2012 in case market solutions cannot be found Financing The total 78 billion of the programme will be financed as follows: 26 billion from IMF 26 billion from the EU (EFSM) 26 billion from EFSF Disbursements will be made over 3 years with an average loan maturity of 7½ years IMF EU EFSF 6
8 European Stability Mechanism (ESM): key features Intergovernmental organisation under public international law, operational from mid-2013 ESM will provide financial assistance in the form of loans (or, exceptionally, through intervention in the primary debt market) to EAMS within a programme of strict conditionality Effective lending capacity of 500 billion Total subscribed capital of 700 billion, with paid-in capital ( 80 billion) and committed callable capital and guarantees ( 620 billion) Private sector involvement Case-by-case based on debt sustainability analysis Following established IMF policies ESM loans will claim preferred creditor status Standardized and Collective Actions Clauses (CACs) will be included for all new euro area government bonds from June
9 The return to stability Challenges Effectiveness Swift implementation Firm application Reform fatigue Financing fatigue Growing scepticism towards the EU Regaining market confidence 8
10 Euro Area Sovereign Yields Euro Area Sovereign 5 Yr Yields - Selected Countries Annual Yield (%) Tim e EUR swap rate Greece P ortugal Ireland Italy S pain Source: Reuters
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