Modelling the sovereign debt crisis in Europe
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1 Modelling the sovereign debt crisis in Europe National Institute Global Econometric Model Dawn Holland October 211 Project LINK Meeting on the World Economy National Institute of Economic and Social Research
2 Model approaches to crisis analysis Modelling government interest payments under a bailout and under default Alternative scenarios (policy makers are unsuccessful) Risk premium does not recede (muddling through) Default contagion EMU exit
3 Modelling government interest payments GIP t M m 1 ND t m LR t m ND t : new debt issued in period t LR t : market interest rate at time t M: average length to maturity of debt stock at time t Approximate as perpetual inventory: GIP GIP t 1 t M 1 DEBT DEBT LR LR LR t 1 Cover borrowing requirement, plus reissue maturing debt at new interest rate Default is straightforward, but bail-out over estimates t 2 t 1 DEBT M 1 t 1 t M 1
4 Market rate on government debt percentage points year government bond spreads over Germany 1/1/28 1/3/28 1/5/28 1/7/28 1/9/28 1/11/28 1/1/29 1/3/29 1/5/29 1/7/29 1/9/29 1/11/29 1/1/21 1/3/21 1/5/21 1/7/21 1/9/21 1/11/21 1/1/211 1/3/211 1/5/211 1/7/211 1/9/211 Ireland Portugal Greece Cost of borrowing on the open market
5 Model over-estimates interest liabilities Following second Greek bailout, bail-out rate set at 25 bp over Euribor Average interest rates paid on debt issued through EU/IMF Dates of disbursements Greece Ireland Portugal German 1-year govt bond 15 June Sept Dec Mar Jan Jan Jan March June Source: Economic Adjustment Programmes for Greece, Ireland, and Portugal (211), European Union, Occasional Paper Nos. 78, 79 and 82.
6 Without bail-out, debt unsustainable Per cent of GDP General govenment budget balance Greece Ireland Portugal Per cent of GDP Gross general government debt Greece Ireland Portugal With bailout Open market borrowing With bailout Open market borrowing
7 Muddling through Risk premium on government debt doesn t recede following a default Impact on GDP growth in 212 of "muddling through" 1 quarter 2 quarters 3 quarters 4 quarters %point diff from base Greece Portugal
8 With spillovers to European banks Impact on GDP growth in 212, w/spillovers to bank lending %point diff from base Belgium Denmark Euro Area Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Netherlands Austria Portugal Sweden Spain UK
9 Default contagion to Portugal If policy makers are successful, others may demand same treatment Portugal most likely to follow Cumulative Wealth shock (% GDP) Cumulative Wealth shock (% GDP) Belgium Switz Germany Spain France UK Italy Japan US Portugal (rhs) Greece (rhs) Belgium Switz Germany Spain France UK Italy Japan US Portugal (rhs) Greece (rhs)
10 Default contagion to Ireland Ireland far less likely to default, but. Bank losses becoming significant Cumulative Wealth shock (% GDP) Cumulative Wealth shock (% GDP) Belgium Switz Germany Spain France UK Italy Japan US Ireland (rhs) Greece (rhs) Portugal (rhs) Belgium Switz Germany Spain France UK Italy Japan US Ireland (rhs) Greece (rhs) Portugal (rhs)
11 Italy may require a bail-out If risk premium on government borrowing rises 2 bp, debt trajectory is unsustainable Per cent of GDP Government debt projections in Italy under different borrowing rates Baseline +1 bp +2 bp +3 bp
12 Default in Italy??? Major banking crisis would be inevitable Cumulative Wealth shock (% GDP) Cumulative Wealth shock (% GDP) Belgium Switz Germany Spain France UK Japan US Ireland (rhs) Greece (rhs) Portugal (rhs) Italy (rhs) Belgium Switz Germany Spain France UK Japan US Ireland (rhs) Greece (rhs) Portugal (rhs) Italy (rhs)
13 EMU exit High risk strategy No guarantee it will improve Greek outlook Abstract from all political, legal, technical barriers Three scenarios Exit and default through devaluation Exit, devalue and default on all external debt Exit, devalue, external default, lost domestic investment replaced by capital inflows In all scenarios bank lending freezes for 1 quarter
14 Exit EMU 5% devaluation Exchange rate devalues due to risk premium Impact on output is negative %age point diff from base Impact of exchange rate risk premium on GDP in Greece 211Q1 212Q1 213Q1 214Q1 215Q1 216Q1 217Q1 218Q1 219Q1 22Q1 221Q1 222Q1 223Q1 224Q1 225Q1 226Q1 227Q1 228Q1
15 Devalue and default on external debt Greece is isolated with no access to external finance %age point diff from base Impact of exchange rate risk premium on GDP in Greece 211Q1 212Q1 213Q1 214Q1 215Q1 216Q1 217Q1 218Q1 219Q1 22Q1 221Q1 222Q1 223Q1 224Q1 225Q1 226Q1 227Q1 228Q1
16 Devalue, default, capital flows in Extended period above base %age point diff from base Impact of exchange rate risk premium on GDP in Greece 211Q1 212Q1 213Q1 214Q1 215Q1 216Q1 217Q1 218Q1 219Q1 22Q1 221Q1 222Q1 223Q1 224Q1 225Q1 226Q1 227Q1 228Q1
17 High risk policy labour outflows longer freeze on bank lending exit from EU trade tariffs? social turmoil and civil unrest corporate sector external debt reappropriations?
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