Bisnode monthly bulletin. Your quick overview of the economy. February 2012

Transcription

1 Bisnode monthly bulletin Your quick overview of the economy

2 Content Editorial Macro Micro Seven Indicators of the Monthly Business Pulse GDP Dynamics Price Increase Dynamics Unemployment Statistics Foreign Trade and the International Environment Newly Established Enterprises Company Deregistration Insolvency Procedures Payment Dynamics, Blockings and Hearings Topic of the Month Natural Health Resorts: Growth, but with the Challenge of Added Value The Bisnode bulletin is free of charge. PUBLISHER: Bisnode d.o.o. LEAD ANALYSTS: Saša Štivan in Sanja Filipič EDITORIAL BOARD Chief editors: Ester Žigon, Bisnode Executive editors: Mediade MANAGER: Maria Anselmi Alen Konjević, Bonitete.si consultant GRAPHIC DESIGN AND PRINT: ad agency Costo PHOTOS: Aleš Beno SOURCES: AJPES, PRS, GVIN archive of business articles, Official Gazette of the Republic of Slovenia, Slovenian Business Register, Bank of Slovenia, Supreme Court of the Republic of Slovenia, Sum, Eurostat, Bisnode's databases HEADLINE PHOTO: Blaž Šager, Bonitete.si consultant

3 Penetrating, Yes. Profitable Not Yet. UVODNIK Natural health resorts represent one of the pillars of Slovenian tourism. The topic of this month focuses on the analysis of natural health resorts' performance in Bisnode's analysis results once again show that Slovenians are in general penetrating in what we do, but rather inefficient. In 21, the analysed companies from the group of natural health resorts on average generated EUR 2,534, in total revenue. In spite of growth, they for the most part concluded the year with a loss: it amounted to a total of EUR 11,112,546. The achieved added value does not give a glamorous image either: the highest averaging somewhat over EUR 31,5 was achieved in 26, while in 21 the analysed companies on average generated EUR 3, value added per employee, which is in spite of the rise after 29 still below the Slovenian average. Maja Pak, Msc., Director of Slovenian Tourist Board, comments on the results in a short interview on page 14: "The increase in added value in tourism is influenced by the development of such tourist products that will exceed tourists' expectations." You are also invited to read the blog at written by Rok Klančnik, an internationally renowned Slovenian expert in tourism. At Bisnode we strive to develop and provide services that exceed your expectations. We will be happy if you present us with a challenge, so that we can prove again and again that Bisnode is your true partner in excellence and boosting of added value. Maria Anselmi, direktorica Seven indicators of the monthly business pulse The table below shows the seven selected indicators of the monthly business pulse for the last three months. The index shows the movement of indicators over the previous month and the same month of the previous year. Contents November December January Index Jan.12/Nov.11 Index J an.12/jan.11 New business start-ups Insolvency proceedings * Consumer bankruptcies Number of blocked entities Number of hearings Average risk score ** Average number of days in default *** to 7 days after the due date Source: gvin.com * This includes the bankruptcies of legal persons, forced settlements, liquidations and deregistrations. ** Risk score are calculated using the methodology developed by Bisnode (Failure Score Model) and are based on 2 different values taken from four segments: financial (balance sheet items, growth, indicators) and demographic information (activity, region, age of the compan y, etc...), the company's payment discipline and public information on legal proceedings, blocked bank accounts, etc. The statistical model calculates the probability of a company collapsing in the next twelve months (bankruptcy, compulsory wind-up, liquidation, deregistration). Risk score can range from to 1 and a higher value indicates a lower possibility of bankruptcy occurring within a year. *** Index of payments indicates the average payment discipline in the Slovenian economy.

4 MACRO Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Dynamics Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the most important aggregate of national accounts and the largest scale for measuring the economic activity of a certain country. It represents the total market value of all final goods and services produced in a country in a given year. Slovenian GDP Dynamics This diagram shows Slovenia's GDP values by quarter for a two-year period. The data are based on the main aggregates of national accounts in current prices and do not account for seasonal fluctuations and the number of business days. 9,6 9,4 9,2 9, 8,8 8,6 8,.4 8,2 8, 7,8 7,6 Slovenian GDP value by quarter (EUR million) Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q IMAD's winter forecast of real growth in GDP for 211 has dropped significantly to.5 percent and for 212 it equals.2 percent. Source: IMAD GDP Source: A Comparison of the GDP Dynamics in Slovenia and the EU The table shows the GDP values for Slovenia and the EU over the last five years. Year GDP EU ( mill. EUR) GDP SLO ( mill. EUR),,,,,,,,,,,,,,, Source: In comparison with the September forecast, the IMF in January slashed its forecast for euro area economic growth, expecting economic activities to shrink by.5-percent during this year. Source: IMAD 4

5 MACRO Price Increase Dynamics Inflation indicates a general rise in price levels, while the inflation rate indicates the change in price levels. The measure for determining inflation in Slovenia is the consumer price index, which is used to measure changes in prices of consumer goods and services purchased by the general population, both nationwide and abroad. Inflation in Slovenia This diagram shows the annual and monthly inflation rates Inflation in Slovenia Annual price growth was 2.3 percent in January (1.8 percent in the same period last year). Average 12-month growth was 1.8-percent (in the same period last year 1.9-percent). Source: SORS Annual Monthly Comparison of Inflation in Slovenia and the EU The diagram below shows the monthly inflation rate in Slovenia and in the EU for the last 12 months Comparison of Inflation in Slovenia and the EU EU annual inflation was 3 percent in December, up from 2.7-percent in the same period the year before. Monthly inflation was.3 percent in December. Source: Eurostat EU Slovenia Source: 5

6 MACRO Unemployment Dynamics Unemployment is the condition of being without official employment. It can be measured in the unemployment rate, which represents unemployed persons as a percentage of the economically active population. The Registered Unemployment Rate in Slovenia Registered unemployed persons are people who have registered with the Employment Service of Slovenia (ZRSZ) and meet the eligibility criteria set by the ZRSZ. The data in the diagram represent the methodology of registered unemployment. 12, Unemployment Rate in Slovenia ,, 11, 15, 1, 95, 9, In December the number of registered unemployed grew further, reaching 112,754 or 2.5 percent more than at the end of 21. Source: IMAD 85, Number of registered unemployed Number of unemployed Source: The Unemployment Rate in Slovenia and the EU The diagram below displays the unemployment rates based on the ILO methodology of survey-based employment figures Unemployment Rate in Slovenia and EU The EU unemployment rate was 9.9 percent in December, which is.4 percentage point more than the year before. Source: Eurostat EU Slovenia Source: 6

7 MACRO The Import and Export of Goods Foreign trade represents goods exchanged with foreign countries: the export of goods abroad or the import of goods from abroad. In the period from January to December 211 exports in Slovenia grew by 12.2 percent and imports by 11.2 percent compared to the same period of 21. The export-to-import ratio was 92.5 percent. Source: SORS (preliminary data) 2,5, 2,, 1,5, 1,, 5, Export Import Source: International Environment Data on the international environment from various sources (Bloomberg, Consensus, The Economist, Eurostat, Bureau of Economic Analysis and the International Monetary Fund for the Projection of Economic Growth) are collected by the Bank of Slovenia. The data on quarterly economic growth are deseasonalised. International environment Content Projections for 212 Economic growth annual values in % quarterly values in % Europe USA Q3 11* 1.5 Q4 11*.2 Q3 11*.7 Q4 11* -.3 ** 2.2 ** Raw materials in USD total primary raw materials Jan.12 - Industrial Jan.12 Food Jan.12 Oil (Brend, USD/barrel) inflation 17.9 Jan.12 Euro area 2.8 Jan.12 USA Dec.11 Central Bank Interest Rates in % at the end of the period Europe 1. Jan.12 USA.-.25 Jan.12 * Deseasonalised data Eurostat for Europe and BEA for USA. ** Consensus, January 212. Source: Monthly Bulletin of the Bank of Slovenia 7

8 MICRO New Business Start-ups The number of new business start-ups includes companies, private entrepreneurs and other legal forms of organisation engaged in economic activities. The diagram shows the number of new business start-ups in Slovenia per month for 21 and ,5 Number of new business start-ups in Slovenia 2, 1,5 1, 5 By the end of January 212, 2,152 business entities were founded in Slovenia, which is 22 more than in the same period last year Source: Company Deregistration The chart presents the changes in deletion from the Companies Register of companies, sole proprietors and other organisations engaged in economic activity. It presents all deletions in Slovenia in the current and previous year. 2,5 Company Deregistrations in 211 and 212 2, 1,5 1, The number of entities stricken from the Companies Register dropped to 1,846 from 2,178 in the same period in Source: 8

9 MICRO Insolvency Proceedings Insolvency procedures are procedures against companies and other legal entities that have too much debt or have been insolvent for a longer period of time. Insolvency procedures in Slovenia are bankruptcy, forced settlement and liquidation. Bankruptcies This diagram shows the dynamics of active bankruptcy proceedings of companies, private entrepreneurs and other organisations detected in Slovenia in the current and preceding year Number of Bankruptcies in 211 and In January 212 there were 64 new insolvency proceedings initiated against legal persons, which is 15 percent less than in the same period the year before Source: Forced Settlements This diagram shows the dynamics of active forced settlements in companies, private entrepreneurs and other organisations detected in Slovenia in the current and preceding year Number of Forced Settlements in 211 and Liquidations This diagram shows the dynamics of active liquidations in companies, private entrepreneurs and other organisations detected in Slovenia in the current and preceding year Number of Liquidations in 211 and 212 Source: Source: 9

10 MICRO Blockings and Hearings This part contains information on bank account blockings and the number of hearings in Slovenia. Bank Account Blocking An entity's bank account is blocked because a certain debit has been made to that account and there is a shortfall of funds to cover that debit. Entities are considered to be blocked if all of their current accounts have been blocked for at least four days in the current month. This diagram shows blocked entities for each month in the current and preceding year. 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Number of Blocked Entities in 211 and In January 212 there were 1,548 corporate accounts frozen, down by one third over the respective period in 211, when the respective figure was 2,264. Hearings Source: A hearing is when litigants gather before a court at a date and venue that have been scheduled in a procedure. It can also be defined as a meeting between a court or another decision-making body and litigants where determined procedural acts take place. This diagram shows the number of scheduled hearings in 21 and , Scheduled Hearings in 211 and 212 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 The number of hearings scheduled in January 212 was 149 below the respective 211 figure. 1, Source: 1

11 MICRO Risk score Risk score is calculated according to the methodology developed by Bisnode (Failure Score Model) and are based on 2 different values taken from four segments: financial (balance sheet items, growth, indicators) and demographic information (activity, region, age of a company, etc.), the company's payment culture and public information on legal proceedings, blocked bank accounts, etc. The statistical model calculates the probability of a company collapsing in the next twelve months (bankruptcy, compulsory wind-up, liquidation, deregistration). Risk scores range from to 1 and a higher value indicates a lower possibility of bankruptcy occuring within a year. The diagram below shows the structure of companies over the last five months and correlates the values with the same month of the preceding year. The entities have been sorted into four groups, depending on their risk score: from 76 to 1 points (lowest risk), 51 to 75 points, 26 to 5 points and to 25 points (highest risk of bankruptcy within a year). In January 212, average risk score in the economy was Compared to the same period in 211, the risk in the economy slightly decreased, i.e. by 1.17 risk scores. 1% 9% 6.8% 7.59% 6.7% 7.56% 6.7% 7.51% 6.9% 7.58% 6.5% 7.49% 8% 28.52% 29.42% 28.63% 29.29% 28.76% 29.8% 28.8% 29.2% 28.8% 28.83% 7% 6% 5% 4% 4.58% 41.63% 41.9% 41.44% 41.63% 42.13% 42.26% 42.37% 42.88% 42.46% 3% 2% 1% % 24.81% 21.36% 24.21% 21.71% 23.54% 21.29% 22.86% 2.85% 22.27% 21.22% September October November December January to 25 points 26 to 5 points 51 to 75 points 76 to 1 points Source: Payment Culture The payment culture reveals the average payment discipline in the Slovenian economy. The diagram below offers a monthly overview of parts of the economy that settle their invoices: by or on the due date, up to 3 days after the due date, between 3 and 6 days after the due date, and more than 6 days after the due date. 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 52.46% 52.7% 47.49% 5.7% 52.47% 5.99% According to the latest data, Slovenian companies on average pay 1 to 7 days after the due date. 3% 38.48% 39.8% 43.16% 39.7% 39.27% 41.34% 2% 1% % 5.6% 4.58% 5.38% 5.42% 4.52% 4.69% 4.1% 3.64% 3.97% 4.82% 3.74% 2.98% More than 6 days after the due date Between 3 and 6 days after the due date Up to 3 days after the due date By or on the due date Source: 11

12 TOPIC OF THE MONTH Natural Health Resorts: Growth, but with the Challenge of Added Value Natural health resorts represent one of the pillars of Slovenian tourism. There are 15 natural health resorts in Slovenia, however, the analysis for (payment discipline and risk were analysed for 211) includes 9 Slovenian companies managing resorts: Hotel Sava Rogaška, d.o.o., Istrabenz turizem, d.d., Naravno zdravilišče Topolšica, d.d., Sava Turizem, d.d., Terme Čatež, d.d., Terme Dobrna, Terme Krka, d.o.o., Terme Olimia, d.d., and Thermana, d.d. Two of the above companies manage more than one resort, while the company Unior, d.d., (Terme Zreče) is managing several programmes and has been excluded from the analysis, because the business results of the tourism programme are difficult to discern. And what did the analysis reveal? In a period when the economy was shaken globally, Slovenian natural health resorts recorded growth in revenues. Nevertheless, performance efficiency indicators show that there is still considerable room for progress. The greatest loss in total revenues within the group totalled EUR 7,649,445 and the highest profit EUR 2,916,199. A period of total revenue growth 'in the shadow' of loss Total revenues of the group experienced a stable upward trend in the relevant five years. In 21, the companies from the analysed group on average generated EUR 2,534, in total revenue. From year to year, all companies further increased revenues. In spite of the increasing average of total revenues in the relevant period, the group recorded a loss at 21 year-end. The loss amounted to no less than EUR 11,112,546 and individual companies from the group suffered a loss averaging EUR 1,234, In 21 the highest loss was sustained by the company generating the greatest revenues in the group Istrabenz turizem with a loss of EUR 7,649,445, followed by Terme Krka and Thermana, posting a loss of EUR 4,6,717 and 1,79,464 respectively. Quite different was the 21 year-end for Terme Čatež, which earned the highest profit EUR 2,916,199, Terme Olimia with the profit of EUR 1,184,783 and Terme Dobrna with EUR 25,138 in profits. Average growth in total revenues of the group in Average profit/loss within the group in ,,. 2,,. 15,,. 1,,. 5,, Source: www. gvin.com 2,,. 15,,. 1,,. 5,,.. - 5,,. - 1,,. - 15,, Source: An average company from the analysed group in 26 still operated at a profit. At that time, profit averaged about EUR 2,15,241.8, while in 28 in plummeted to an average of EUR 681,81.22, after which the companies for the most part started incurring loss. 12

13 TOPIC OF THE MONTH After a drop, value added per employee again on the rise In 21 the analysed group employed about 2,932 staff. That year witnessed the first drop, since in 29, the number of employees was 3,1 and had until that year steadily grown in the analysed period. An average company from the analysed group employed about 326 people in 21. The highest number was employed by Terme Krka, i.e. 614, and the smallest by Hotel Sava Rogaška, i.e. 17. Bisnode analysis has shown that on average the companies from the analysed group reached the highest value added per employee in 26, when it stood at somewhat more than EUR In 21 the companies from the group on average generated EUR 3, of value added per employee, significantly less than at the start of the analysed period, but more than in 29. The highest value added per employee was in 21 created by Istrabenz turizem EUR 43,171.88, followed by Terme Čatež with EUR 42,795.3, while the lowest was that of Hotel Sava Rogaška only EUR 19, ,. 31,5. 31,. 3,5. 3,. 29,5. Average value added per employee within the group Source: Payment discipline average, risk within the group lower than the Slovenian average On the basis of available data, Bisnode analysis has shown that in spite of everything the analysed companies in 211 effected payments 1 to 7 days after value date, which is the overall Slovenian average. Within the group, above-average payment discipline was displayed by Istrabenz turizem, Terme Olimia, Thermana and Sava Turizem; these companies in 211 on average made payments at or prior to value date. The poorest payment discipline was that of Naravno zdravilišče Topolšica and Hotel Sava Rogaška, which defaulted on payments 16 to 3 days. In terms of business risks *, Slovenian companies are on average BB-graded with a 6 score. Among the least risky in the analysed group is Terme Olimia, which ranks into AA with a score of 85, followed by Terme Dobrna and Terme Čatež that are A-graded with a score of 76, while the most risky is Naravno zdravilišče Topolšica, ranked CCC with a score of only 37. Compared to an average Slovenian company, the analysed group of companies is still less risky. In 211, the highest value added per employee within the group equalled EUR 43, and the lowest EUR 19, On the whole, with the average BB risk and a score of 6 the companies from the analysed group are less risky than an average Slovenian company. * Risk assessments were made as at 9. 13

14 To Succeed in Tourism You Need to Surprise and Enthuse INTERVIEW Interview with Maja Pak, Msc., Director of Slovenian Tourist Board According to 211 results, Slovenian tourism scores success, at the same time revealing the challenge of profitable operations: of the tourist companies which in 21 generated the highest net operating income only a small number recorded profit. We therefore asked the Director of the Slovenian Tourist Board for her opinion about where is the main potential and room for progress in this area. Photo source: personal archive What do you think is the source of the current nonprofitability of operations? Recently, Slovenian tourism has noted above-average results. In 211, the number of foreign tourists in Slovenia grew by 9 percent and the data of the Bank of Slovenia show that their consumption rose by 1 percent. These results will affect the business results of companies in 211. Naturally, there is a different story behind the business result of every individual company. In the past years, large tourist companies made heavy investments in infrastructure and quality upgrade, which still weighs down their current operations, and ownership restructuring processes took place. Moreover, the consequences of the economic crisis on the one hand led to fierce competition on the global tourist market and pressure on service prices, while on the other they brought about higher costs, financial expenses, etc. Consequently, as indicated by data from AJPES (Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for Public and Legal Records), operating expenses of some companies in 21 grew more than operating revenues. Naturally, there is a different story behind the business result of every individual company. What should be changed to boost added value? The increase in added value in tourism is influenced by the development of such tourist products that will exceed tourists' expectations. This has to be based on competitive advantages of Slovenia, such as intact nature, excellent geo-traffic position in the heart of Europe, rich natural healing resources, etc. It is necessary to integrate imagination, emotions, stories, local specifics and authentic elements into products. Products have to surprise and have a thrilling effect. That requires them to be different and innovative. They have to be based on the principles of sustainability. Which country is the benchmark for Slovenia as regards tourism success? As regards development and marketing in tourism, we like to measure against advanced and innovative destinations ranking among the top in terms of tourism competitiveness according to WEF. These countries are Switzerland, Germany, Austria and also New Zealand and Scotland. Two years ago we made a comparable analysis of Slovenian natural health resorts together with the SSNZ (Society of Natural Spas of Slovenia), comparing them with those in Austria, Italy, Czech Republic and Hungary. We discovered that Slovenian health resorts are compared to the above countries very competitive in infrastructure quality and health care and wellness services, and that they boast a good price-to-quality ratio. In market positioning of Slovenia we have without a doubt set a visible course with very green and sustainable tourism in recent years. In the area of sustainable development and marketing, and introduction of virtual marketing, the Slovenian Tourist Board has in recent years made a number of steps forward, which did not go unnoticed by the international public at last year's World Travel Market in London, where the Slovenian Tourist Board received the "Best Stand for Interacting with Travel Agents" Award as an example of good practice particularly in sustainable marketing. 14

15 Certificate Highest Creditworthiness Rating re you aware that only 3% of Slovenian companies have been awarded the Highest Creditworthiness Rating? re you aware that certificate holders are trustworthy and reliable business partners? re you ready to receive your Highest Creditworthiness Rating Certificate? Call and find out! Bisnode d.o.o., Likozarjeva ulica 3, 1 Ljubljana, T: , E: info@bisnode.si,

16 Sandi Zajc, vodja prodaje Solvis Bisnode d.o.o., Likozarjeva ulica 3, 1 Ljubljana T: F: E: info@bisnode.si W: We enjoy the trust of Companies AMZS D.D. AUTOCOMMERCE D. D. COCA-COLA HBC SLOVENIJA D.O.O. DROGA KOLINSKA D. D. ELEKTRO LJUBLJANA D.D. GEOPLIN D.O.O. GORENJE D.D. HELLA SATURNUS SLOVENIJA D.O.O. HSE D.O.O. IBM SLOVENIJA D.O.O. INTEREUROPA D. D. ISKRATEL, D.O.O. KNAUF INSULATION D.O.O., LEKARNA LJUBLJANA LJUBLJANSKE MLEKARNE D.D. MAVI MARIBOR D.O.O. MERCATOR D.D. OMV SLOVENIJA, D.O.O. PETROL D.D. PIVKA PERUTNINARSTVO D.D. PORSCHE SLOVENIJA D.O.O. POŠTA SLOVENIJE D. O. O. PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS PRISTOP SKUPINA D.O.O. SI.MOBIL D.D. SLOVENSKE ŽELEZNICE D.D. SPAR SLOVENIJA D.O.O. TELEKOM SLOVENIJE D.D. ŽITO D.D. Banks and financial institutions ABANKA VIPA D. D. UNICREDIT BANKA SLOVENIJE D.D., BANKA KOPER D. D. GORENJSKA BANKA D.D. HYPO BANK D.D. KD BANKA D.D. LJUBLJANSKA BORZA D.D. NACIONALNA FINANČNA DRUŽBA D.O.O. NOVA KBM D.D. NOVA LJUBLJANSKA BANKA D.D POŠTNA BANKA SLOVENIJE D.D. PROBANKA D.D. RAIFEISSEN KREKOVA BANKA, D.D. SKB BANKA D. D. SLOVENSKA IZVOZNA DRUŽBA D.D. SUMMIT LEASING SLOVENIJA D.O.O. VBS LEASING D.O.O. VOLKSBANK D.D. ZAVAROVALNICA GENERALI D.D. ZAVAROVALNICA MARIBOR D. D. ZAVAROVALNICA TILIA, D. D. ZAVAROVALNICA TRIGLAV D. D. State agencies TAX ADMINISTRATION OF THE REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIA DARS, MOTORWAY COMPANY IN THE REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIA SLOVENIAN ROADS AGENCY CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY OF SLOVENIA - INFOLINK SLOVENIAN ENVIRONMENTAL PUBLIC FUND JAPTI, PUBLIC AGENCY OF THE REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIA FOR ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND FOREIGN INVESTMENTS MINISTRY OF FINANCE MINISTRY OF THE ECONOMY MINISTRY OF THE INTERIOR MINISTRY OF DEFENCE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS THE CAPITAL ASSETS MANAGEMENT AGENCY STATISTICAL OFFICE OF THE REPUBLIC OF SLOVENIA MARKET INSPECTORATE OF RS SLOVENE ENTERPRISE FUND Foreign Embassies in Slovenia THE EMBASSY OF THE REPUBLIC OF POLAND GERMAN-SLOVENIAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE OFFICE EMBASSY OF NETHERLANDS EMBASSY OF THE UNITED STATES EMBASSY OF FRANCE GERMAN CHAMBERS OF COMMERCE... and others