Schweitzer could win Sen. nom in 14 but maybe not MT in 16

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1 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE December 7, 2011 INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH OF THE PRESS RELEASE Schweitzer could win Sen. nom in 14 but maybe not MT in 16 Raleigh, N.C. Brian Schweitzer, a Democrat in a red state, is one of the most popular governors in the country in fact, his approval spread makes him the seventh bestliked of 37 on which PPP has polled this year, thanks to approval from 30% of Republicans, 55% of independents, and 83% of his own party. Were he to challenge fellow Democrat Max Baucus for the 2014 Senate nomination, he would prevail, Schweitzer leads by 40 points with the most liberal voters, 17 with moderates, and even 23 with the most. But if Schweitzer runs for the White House two years later, he might have a tougher time winning his own state in the general election. 47% say they would not vote for him, and only 32% say they would. Independents mirror the overall results, but while Schweitzer pulls 12% of GOP voters, 22% of his own party says they would not vote for him. Add Montana to the list of states where even opponents of gay marriage a 51% majority still are okay with civil unions. 62% want same-sex couples to have legal equality, including 84% of Democrats, % of independents, and 39% of Republicans, only 10% of whom favor marriage in the two-way question. Montanans are split all over the map when it comes to baseball. A 23% plurality have no affiliate, while 19% favor the Seattle Mariners, 10% each the Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Colorado Rockies, and New York Yankees, 8% the Minnesota Twins, 5% the Atlanta Braves, 4% the Cincinnati Reds, and 2% the Milwaukee Brewers. The state bucks the location trend in the NFL. A 26% plurality roots for some other team or no one, but 19% prefer the Green Bay Packers, 16% the Denver Broncos, 8% each the Seattle Seahawks and Minnesota Vikings, 7% the Dallas Cowboys, 6% the Pittsburgh Steelers, and 5% the Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers. PPP surveyed 1,625 Montana voters, including 573 usual Democratic primary voters, from November 28 th to 30 th. The margin of error for the entire survey is +/-2.4%, and +/- 4.1% for the Democratic primary portion. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates. Public Policy Polling Phone: Web: information@publicpolicypolling.com

2 Montana Survey Results Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Max Baucus job performance? Approve...37%...12% Disapprove... 51% Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Brian Schweitzer s job performance? Approve...55%...13% Disapprove... 33% If the Democratic candidates for Senate in 2014 were Max Baucus and Brian Schweitzer, who would you vote for? (Asked only of 573 Democratic primary voters) Max Baucus...35% Brian Schweitzer...51% Undecided...14% Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal? Legal... 37% Illegal... 51% 12%... Which of the following best describes your opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should be allowed to legally, or gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not legally, or there should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship? Gay couples should There should be no be allowed to legally legal recognition of... 32% a gay couple's 35% Gay couples should relationship... be allowed to form... 3% civil unions but not... 30% Do you support or oppose the goals of the Occupy Wall Street movement? Support...33%...44%...23% Q7 Q8 Do you support or oppose the goals of the Tea movement? Support...40%...44%...17% Do you have a higher opinion of the Occupy Wall Street movement or the Tea movement? Occupy Wall Street...39% Tea...42%...19% Q9 If Brian Schweitzer ran for President in 2016, would you vote for him or not? Would vote Brian President... 32% Would not...47%...21% Q10 Given the choices of the Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, San Francisco 49ers, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Seattle Seahawks, which is your favorite football team? Bears... 5% Cowboys... 7% Broncos...16% Packers...19% Vikings... 8% 49ers... 5% Steelers... 6% Seahawks... 8% Someone else/don't... 26% Survey of 1,625 Montana voters

3 Q11 Given the choices of the Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds, Colorado Rockies, Milwaukee Brewers, Minnesota Twins, New York Yankees, and Seattle Mariners, which is your favorite baseball team? Braves... 5% Red Sox...10% Cubs...10% Reds... 4% Rockies...10% Brewers... 2% Twins... 8% Yankees...10% Mariners...19% Someone else/don't... 23% Q12 Who did you vote for President in 2008?...47% Barack Obama...43% Someone else/don't... 9% Q13 Would you describe yourself as very liberal, somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat, or very? Very liberal... 8% Somewhat liberal...18% Moderate...27% Somewhat...27% Very...19% Q14 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2. Woman...53% Man...47% Q15 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3. Democrat...30% Republican...35% Independent/Other...35% Q16 If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2. White...94% Other... 6% Q17 If you are 29 years old, press 1. If, press 2. If, press 3. If you are older than, press %...26%...43% than...20% Survey of 1,625 Montana voters

4 Baucus Approval Approve Disapprove 37% 15% 62% 31% 51% 75% 26% 51% 12% 11% 12% 18% Schweitzer Approval Approve Disapprove 55% 33% 81% 44% 33% 52% 11% 34% 13% 15% 8% 22% 2014 Dem Sen Prim ary Max Baucus Brian Schweitzer Undecide d 35% 46% 34% 42% 51% % 52% 42% 14% 8% 14% 16% Sam e-sex Legal/Illegal Legal Illegal 37% 12% 66% 24% 51% 79% 20% 60% 12% 10% 13% 17%

5 Gay Marriage/Civ. Unions/No Recognition Gay couples should be allowed to legally Gay couples should be allow ed to form civil unions but not There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship 32% 7% 60% 21% 30% 34% 25% 33% 35% 56% 12% 42% 3% 2% 3% 4% Support/ OWS Goals Support 33% 9% 59% 22% 44% 70% 16% 54% 23% 21% 25% 23% Support/ Tea Goals Support 40% 69% 9% % 44% 11% 79% 34% 17% 20% 13% 21% Higher Opinion of OWS or Tea? Occupy Wall Street Tea 39% 8% 71% 29% 42% 76% 7% 46% 19% 16% 22% 25%

6 Would You Vote for Pres.? Would vote Brian President Would not 32% 13% 52% 29% 47% 70% 25% 44% 21% 17% 23% 28% Fave NFL Team Bears Cowboys Broncos Packers Vikings 49ers Steelers Seahaw ks Someone else/don't 5% 4% 5% 5% 7% 9% 5% 7% 16% 19% 14% 14% 19% 19% 19% 20% 8% 7% 8% 9% 5% 5% 6% 2% 6% 6% 7% 5% 8% 8% 7% 6% 26% 23% 28% 33% Fave MLB Team Braves Red Sox Cubs Reds Rockie s Brewers Twins Yankees Mariners Someone else/don't 5% 4% 6% 7% 10% 7% 13% 4% 10% 8% 9% 21% 4% 6% 2% 4% 10% 12% 8% 6% 2% 2% 2% 2% 8% 9% 7% 6% 10% 10% 10% 8% 19% 18% 21% 16% 23% 24% 22% 26% liberal liberal Moderate Som ew hat Very Baucus Approval Approve 37% 55% 58% 50% 22% 12% Disapprove 51% 33% 29% 36% 66% 81% 12% 12% 13% 15% 12% 7%

7 Schweitzer Approval liberal liberal Moderate Som ew hat Very Approve 55% 79% 78% 68% 42% 21% Disapprove 33% 12% 12% 21% 42% % 13% 8% 10% 11% 17% 13% 2014 Dem Sen Primary Max Baucus Brian Schweitzer Undecide d liberal liberal Moderate Som ew hat Very 35% 25% 39% 35% 39% 12% 51% % 46% 52% 41% 35% 14% 10% 15% 12% 20% 53% liberal liberal Moderate Som ew hat Very Same-sex Legal/Illegal Legal 37% 81% 66% 48% 17% 4% Illegal 51% 13% 22% 34% 72% 90% 12% 6% 13% 18% 12% 6% Gay Marriage/Civ. Unions/No Recognition Gay couples should be allowed to legally Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions but not There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship liberal liberal Moderate Som ew hat Very 32% 79% 59% 42% 12% 1% 30% 8% 23% 36% 38% 27% 35% 12% 15% 19% 47% 70% 3% 1% 3% 3% 3% 2%

8 Support/ OWS Goals Support liberal liberal Moderate Som ew hat Very 33% 67% % 39% 13% 5% 44% 17% 13% 31% 61% 81% 23% 15% 23% 29% 26% 14% Som ew hat Very liberal liberal Moderate Support/ Tea Goals Support 40% 16% 6% 20% 57% 86% 44% 77% 82% 59% 19% 4% 17% 7% 12% 21% 23% 11% Higher Opinion of OWS or Tea? Occupy Wall Street Tea liberal liberal Moderate Som ew hat Very 39% 81% 76% 48% 14% 3% 42% 11% 6% 22% 63% 91% 19% 7% 18% 30% 23% 6% Would You Vote for Pres.? Would vote Brian President Would not liberal liberal Moderate Som ew hat Very 32% 53% 50% 41% 21% 7% 47% 27% 24% 35% 58% 82% 21% 20% 26% 24% 20% 11%

9 Fave NFL Team Bears liberal liberal Moderate Som ew hat Very 5% 5% 9% 3% 4% 4% Cow boys Broncos 7% 16% 6% 15% 3% 13% 9% 16% 5% 18% 9% 18% Packers 19% 12% 16% 22% 21% 18% Vikings 49ers Steelers Seahaw ks 8% 5% 6% 8% 14% 5% 10% 4% 9% 6% 3% 5% 5% 6% 8% 11% 9% 5% 5% 8% 7% 4% 5% 7% Someone else/don't 26% 30% 36% 20% 25% 26% liberal liberal Moderate Som ew hat Very Fave MLB Team Braves 5% 4% 6% 6% 5% 4% Red Sox 10% 16% 11% 9% 9% 7% Cubs 10% 9% 12% 11% 10% 7% Reds 4% 1% 3% 2% 6% 5% Rockies 10% 5% 8% 12% 10% 8% Brewers 2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 1% Twins 8% 5% 7% 6% 9% 8% Yankees 10% 16% 7% 11% 8% 10% Mariners 19% 17% 21% 20% 16% 21% Someone else/don't 23% 26% 23% 18% 24% 28% Baucus Approval Approve Disapprove Wom an Man 37% 38% 36% 51% 49% 54% 12% 13% 10% Wom an Man Schweitzer Approval Approve 55% 53% 57% Disapprove 33% 32% 33% 13% 15% 10%

10 Wom an Man Wom an Man 2014 Dem Sen Prim ary Sam e-sex Legal/Illegal Max Baucus 35% 37% 33% Legal 37% 40% 35% Brian Schweitzer 51% 47% 55% Illegal 51% 47% 55% Unde cided 14% 16% 12% 12% 13% 10% Gay Marriage/Civ. Unions/No Re cognition Gay couples should be allow ed to legally Gay couples should be allow ed to form civil unions but not There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship Wom an Man 32% 36% 29% 30% 29% 31% 35% 32% 37% 3% 3% 3% Support/ OWS Goals Support Wom an Man 33% 34% 32% 44% 43% % 23% 23% 23%

11 Wom an Man Wom an Man Support/ Tea Goals Higher Opinion of OWS or Tea? Support 40% 36% 43% Occupy Wall Street 39% 40% 36% 44% 44% 44% Tea 42% 40% % 17% 20% 13% 19% 20% 19% Would You Vote for Pres.? Would vote Brian President Would not Wom an Man 32% 31% 32% 47% 46% 49% 21% 22% 19% Fave NFL Team Be ars Cow boys Broncos Packers Vikings 49ers Steelers Seahaw ks Someone else/don't Wom an Man 5% 4% 6% 7% 7% 6% 16% 17% 15% 19% 16% 22% 8% 7% 9% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 8% 9% 6% 26% 28% 25%

12 Fave MLB Team Braves Red Sox Cubs Re ds Rockies Brew ers Twins Yankees Mariners Someone else/don't Wom an Man 5% 3% 7% 10% 9% 10% 10% 10% 9% 4% 2% 6% 10% 10% 9% 2% 1% 2% 8% 8% 7% 10% 11% 9% 19% 21% 18% 23% 24% 22% Baucus Approval Approve Disapprove Democrat Republican Independent/Other 37% % 16% 34% 51% 25% 73% 53% 12% 10% 11% 13% Democrat Republican Independent/Other Schweitzer Approval Approve 55% 83% 30% 55% Disapprove 33% 9% 55% 30% 13% 7% 15% 15% Democrat Republican Independent/Other 2014 Dem Sen Prim ary Max Baucus 35% 34% 74% 35% Brian Schweitzer 51% 52% 9% 52% Undecided 14% 14% 16% 13%

13 Same-sex Legal/Illegal Democrat Republican Independent/Other Legal 37% 66% 10% 37% Illegal 51% 22% 80% 49% 12% 12% 10% 14% Democrat Republican Independent/Other Gay Marriage/Civ. Unions/No Recognition Gay couples should 32% 61% 7% 30% be allowed to legally Gay couples should 30% 23% 32% 35% be allowed to form civil unions but not There should be no 35% 13% 58% 32% legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship 3% 3% 2% 3% Democrat Republican Independent/Other Support/ OWS Goals Support 33% 60% 7% 32% 44% 15% 71% % 23% 25% 21% 23% Democrat Republican Independent/Other Support/ Tea Goals Support 40% 9% 70% 39% 44% 82% 9% 43% 17% 10% 21% 19%

14 Higher Opinion of OWS or Tea? Occupy Wall Street Democrat Republican Independent/Other Tea 42% 8% 75% 42% 39% 74% 8% 35% 19% 18% 17% 23% Democrat Republican Independent/Other Would You Vote for Pres.? Would vote Brian 32% 53% 12% 32% President Would not 47% 22% 74% % 21% 24% 14% 24% Democrat Republican Independent/Other Fave NFL Team Bears 5% 6% 5% 3% Cowboys Broncos Packers Vikings 49ers Steelers Seahaw ks Someone else/don't 7% 5% 8% 7% 16% 14% 20% 15% 19% 17% 19% 22% 8% 10% 6% 8% 5% 6% 5% 5% 6% 6% 5% 7% 8% 9% 8% 6% 26% 28% 24% 27% Democrat Republican Independent/Other Fave MLB Team Braves 5% 6% 5% 5% Red Sox 10% 14% 10% 6% Cubs Reds Rockies Brewers Twins Yankees Mariners Someone else/don't 10% 10% 8% 12% 4% 3% 4% 5% 10% 5% 12% 11% 2% 1% 2% 2% 8% 8% 6% 9% 10% 13% 10% 7% 19% 21% 17% 21% 23% 19% 26% 23%

15 White Other White Other Baucus Approval Schweitzer Approval Approve 37% 36% 51% Approve 55% 55% 56% Disapprove 51% 52% 40% Disapprove 33% 32% 36% 12% 12% 9% 13% 13% 8% 2014 Dem Sen Prim ary Max Baucus Brian Schweitzer Unde cided White Other 35% 34% % 51% 51% 47% 14% 15% 8% Sam e-sex Legal/Illegal Legal Illegal White Other 37% 37% 48% 51% 51% % 12% 12% 8%

16 Gay Marriage/Civ. Unions/No Re cognition Gay couples should be allow ed to legally Gay couples should be allow ed to form civil unions but not There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship White Other 32% 32% 41% 30% 30% 31% 35% 35% 26% 3% 3% 2% Support/ OWS Goals Support White Other 33% 33% 37% 44% % 37% 23% 23% 26% Support/ Tea Goals Support White Other 40% 40% 32% 44% 44% 48% 17% 16% 20% Higher Opinion of OWS or Tea? Occupy Wall Street Tea White Other 39% 39% 35% 42% 43% 30% 19% 18% 36%

17 Would You Vote for Pres.? Would vote Brian President Would not White Other 32% 31% 43% 47% 48% % 21% 21% 11% Fave NFL Team Be ars Cow boys Broncos Packers Vikings 49ers Steelers Seahaw ks Someone else/don't White Other 5% 4% 8% 7% 6% 12% 16% 17% 13% 19% 20% 13% 8% 8% 4% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 10% 8% 8% 9% 26% 26% 25% Fave MLB Team Braves Red Sox Cubs Re ds Rockies Brew ers Twins Yankees Mariners Someone else/don't White Other 5% 5% 4% 10% 10% 13% 10% 10% 11% 4% 4% 2% 10% 9% 11% 2% 2% 3% 8% 8% 7% 10% 10% 8% 19% 19% 24% 23% 24% 17% Baucus Approval Approve Dis approve than 37% % 36% 35% 38% 51% 42% 52% 54% 51% 12% 13% 12% 12% 11%

18 than than Schweitzer Approval Approve Dis approve 55% 56% 48% 56% 60% 33% 26% 36% 34% 31% 13% 18% 16% 11% 9% 2014 Dem Sen Prim ary Max Baucus Brian Schweitzer Undecide d 35% 43% 37% 35% 31% 51% 43% 50% 52% 53% 14% 13% 13% 13% 17% Sam e-sex Legal/Illegal Legal Illegal than 37% 69% 40% 34% 26% 51% 24% 49% 52% 61% 12% 6% 11% 13% 13% Gay Marriage/Civ. Unions/No Re cognition Gay couples should be allow ed to legally Gay couples should be allow ed to form civil unions but not There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship than 32% % 35% 29% 21% 30% 10% 28% 33% 35% 35% 23% 34% 35% 40% 3% 2% 3% 3% 3%

19 than than Support/ OWS Goals Support/ Tea Goals Support 33% 47% 30% 34% 27% Support 40% 26% 42% 41% 39% 44% 28% 48% 44% 47% 44% 57% 42% 43% 42% 23% 26% 23% 21% 27% 17% 17% 16% 16% 18% Higher Opinion of OWS or Tea? Occupy Wall Street Tea than 39% 57% 33% 41% 31% 42% 21% 44% 44% 46% 19% 21% 23% 15% 23% Would You Vote for Pres.? Would vote Brian President Would not than 32% 43% 30% 30% 33% 47% 30% 50% 50% 46% 21% 28% 20% 20% 21%

20 Fave NFL Team Bears Cow boys Broncos Packers Vikings 49ers Steelers Seahaw ks Someone else/don't than 5% 4% 6% 5% 2% 7% 9% 9% 5% 6% 16% 13% 18% 16% 18% 19% 19% 20% 18% 21% 8% 15% 4% 9% 7% 5% 4% 6% 6% 4% 6% 6% 8% 5% 5% 8% 6% 7% 7% 11% 26% 23% 21% 30% 26% Fave MLB Team Braves Red Sox Cubs Reds Rock ie s Brew ers Twins Yankees Mariners Someone else/don't than 5% 7% 8% 4% 4% 10% 9% 11% 10% 8% 10% 7% 9% 11% 9% 4% 7% 4% 4% 3% 10% 11% 10% 9% 10% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 8% 4% 7% 9% 7% 10% 11% 9% 10% 10% 19% 24% 17% 19% 20% 23% 20% 23% 22% 27%