CONSUMER TRENDS: ARIZONA EDITION

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Andra Fisher
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1 CONSUMER TRENDS: ARIZONA EDITION Jonathan Smoke Chief Economist March 30,

2 SALES ARE RETURNING TO NORMAL Existing back to pre-boom levels, but new sales remain depressed US Home Sales forecast Existing New 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 Source: National Association of REALTORS Existing Home Sales Report 2

3 EXPLORING THE GROWTH IN SALES Existing home sales grew 6.5% in 2015 Leveraging monthly NAR existing sales data and REALTOR Confidence Survey data, we can see that not all types of sales increased: First-time +12% Normal/Non-distress +10% Relocation/Job Change +8% Second Home -8% Investor -10% International Buyer -12% Distressed Sales -19% 3

4 VOLUME AND REPRESENTATION VARY Older Gen-X and Younger Boomers are MIA 2015 Buyers by Age Group Buying Index 75+, 4% 18 to 24, 3% 18 to to to 74, 14% 25 to 34, 28% 35 to to to 64, 17% 55 to to to 54, 15% 35 to 44, 20%

5 DEMOGRAPHICS SET THE TABLE When viewed by age, importance of Millennials becomes clearer 5,000 4,500 US Population by Age 57 million 83 million 61 million 80 million 38 million Z Y X Boom 4,000 3,500 Thousands 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Source: Realtor.com Analysis of US Census Bureau Population Estimates (2014) 5

6 MILLENNIAL OWNERSHIP VARIES Strong correlation with affordable markets Source: Nielsen Demographics PopFacts 2015, Realtor.com Analysis 6

7 MILLENNIAL OWNERSHIP homeownership rate in Arizona is 42% Source: Nielsen Demographics Pop-Facts

BOOMERS KEEP DISTURBING Boomer wave is causing a major population shift 400,000,000 Population by Age (US) Under 25 25-34 35-54 55-64 65+ 350,000,000 300,000,000 250,000,000 15% Over the next 5

8 BOOMERS KEEP DISTURBING Boomer wave is causing a major population shift 400,000,000 Population by Age (US) Under ,000, ,000, ,000,000 15% Over the next 5 years: Population grows 4% 17% 13% 13% 65+ grows 18% 200,000,000 26% grows 5% 25% 150,000, ,000,000 13% is flat grows 1% 13% 50,000,000 33% Under 25 grows 1% 32% Source: Nielsen Demographics Pop-Facts

9 BOOMERS IMPACTING ARIZONA TOO But every age range has substantial growth 8,000,000 Population by Age (Arizona) Under ,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 16% 12% 25% Over the next 5 years: Population grows 6% 65+ grows 16% grows 5% 18% 12% 24% 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 13% 34% grows 4% grows 5% Under 25 grows 4% 13% 33% Source: Nielsen Demographics Pop-Facts

REASONS FOR PURCHASE VARY Clear patterns emerge from top 12 triggers for 2015 buyers

in income 24 Change of family circumstance/composition 18 Relocated to a new city 16

Change of job/job location Looking for a safer neighborhood Increase in family size 12

10 REASONS FOR PURCHASE VARY Clear patterns emerge from top 12 triggers for 2015 buyers Tired of current home 28 Favorable interest rates 27 Favorable home prices 26 Increase in income 24 Change of family circumstance/composition 18 Relocated to a new city 16 Considering retirement 14 Desire to live closer to family/friends Increasing rent Change of job/job location Looking for a safer neighborhood Increase in family size % of Respondents Source: BDX Home Shopper Insights Panel, Summer

11 INVENTORY HAS BEEN A CONSTRAINT Demand continues to exceed supply Months' Supply of Homes for Sale Existing New Source: National Association of REALTORS, Commerce Department

12 HOME PRICE RECOVERY VARIES Markets not recovered face the most existing inventory challenges Source: Realtor.com 12

13 CONFIDENCE IS STRONG Plans to purchase a home in the next 6 months at 9-year highs Consumer Confidence Index Plans to Purchase % % % 7.0% % % % % 2.0% % 0 0.0% Source: The Conference Board, Moody s Analytics 13

14 CREDIT ACCESS REMAINS TIGHT Mortgage access up only 4% year-over-year in February Mortgage Credit Availability Index Mar-2012= % 13% 30% 25% 13% % 32% Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, Haver Analytics 14

15 STRONG START TO 2016 IN TRAFFIC Traffic up in February 23%yy; year olds up 34% yy Real Estate Web Unique Visitors by Age All Traffic (Right Axis) 60, ,000 50, ,000 40, ,000 80,000 30,000 60,000 20,000 10,000 40,000 20, Thousands Thousands 35% of 55+, 56% of 35-54, and 67% of in February Source: Realtor.com Analysis of comscore Media Metrix Real Estate Category Unique Visitor Data 15

16 EVEN MORTGAGE RATES VARY 30-Year-Fixed in AZ: High 4.18 (Jun 15) Low 3.61 (Feb 16) Source: Realtor.com 16

00 Jan-90 Sep-90 May-91 Jan-92 Sep-92 May-93 Jan-94 Sep-94 May-95 Jan-96 Sep-96 May-97 Jan-98 Sep-98 May-99 Jan-00 Sep-00 May-01 Jan-02 Sep-02

17 <4,000 JOBS AWAY FROM RECOVERY Unemployment down substantially Employment and Unemployment Rate in Arizona Total Nonfarm Employment (SA) Unemployment Rate (% SA) ,500, ,000, ,500, ,000, , Jan-90 Sep-90 May-91 Jan-92 Sep-92 May-93 Jan-94 Sep-94 May-95 Jan-96 Sep-96 May-97 Jan-98 Sep-98 May-99 Jan-00 Sep-00 May-01 Jan-02 Sep-02 May-03 Jan-04 Sep-04 May-05 Jan-06 Sep-06 May-07 Jan-08 Sep-08 May-09 Jan-10 Sep-10 May-11 Jan-12 Sep-12 May-13 Jan-14 Sep-14 May-15 Jan-16 3,000,000 Source: BLS, Moody s Analytics 17

HOTTEST ZIPS IN ARIZONA Q4 2015 Based on

18 HOTTEST ZIPS IN ARIZONA Q Based on Supply and Demand Source: Realtor.com 18

19 CRYSTAL BALL 19

KEY SEGMENT: RETIREES Born 1942-1951, these wild

20 KEY SEGMENT: RETIREES Born , these wild things have rocked the world for decades The youngest of the Silent Generation and the oldest Boomers Wealthiest age cohort, ready to focus on retirement 20

Mix, Active Adult Preference: Newly Constructed Homes Reason: Desires, Cost of Living Focus:

21 KEY SEGMENT: RETIREES 65 is the new 55, and housing is central to their plans Why: Second Age Cohort Most Likely to Buy Timing: Spring Current Tenure: Own But Motivated to Downsize Type: Mix, Active Adult Preference: Newly Constructed Homes Reason: Desires, Cost of Living Focus: Ability to Customize Trigger: Relocation and Retirement Challenges: Selling Current Home; Inventory 21

22 RETIREE HOT SPOTS Where year olds are looking at listings the most 22

KEY SEGMENT: YOUNGER GEN-X ERS Born 1972-1981, music has been central to their experience Dwarfed by the generations before and

23 KEY SEGMENT: YOUNGER GEN-X ERS Born , music has been central to their experience Dwarfed by the generations before and after them, these Gen-X ers are a force in part because they are entering their prime earning years They still love the suburbs 23

Entry-Level to Move-Up Preference: Existing Homes Reason: Driven by Family Needs Focus: Quality

24 KEY SEGMENT: YOUNGER GEN-X ERS The hardest hit by the downturn see solid economic improvements Why: Second Biggest Age Cohort of Buyers Timing: Spring Current Tenure: Own But Want to Trade Up Type: Entry-Level to Move-Up Preference: Existing Homes Reason: Driven by Family Needs Focus: Quality Trigger: Tired of Current Home; Increase in Income Challenges: Selling Current Home, Inventory, Down Payment 24

25 GEN-X HOT SPOTS Where year olds are looking at listings the most 25

KEY SEGMENT: OLDER MILLENNIALS Born 1982-1991,

26 KEY SEGMENT: OLDER MILLENNIALS Born , these social artists continue to break molds The generation that gave us #selfie & #FOMO Starting to experience #RealLife But doing it in their own way 26

KEY SEGMENT: OLDER MILLENNIALS Mainly first-time buyers are already showing their numbers Why: Biggest Cohort of Buyers and Cohort Most Likely to Buy Timing: Spring and Summer Current Tenure:

27 KEY SEGMENT: OLDER MILLENNIALS Mainly first-time buyers are already showing their numbers Why: Biggest Cohort of Buyers and Cohort Most Likely to Buy Timing: Spring and Summer Current Tenure: Renting Type: Entry-Level to Move-Up Preference: Existing Homes Reason: Driven by Family Needs Focus: Safety, Quality Trigger: Increase in Income Challenges: Inventory, Time, Down Payment, Lease 27

28 MILLENNIAL HOT SPOTS Where year olds are looking at listings the most 28

HOUSEHOLD GROWTH 2015-2020 Half of zip codes in AZ should see 4%+

29 HOUSEHOLD GROWTH Half of zip codes in AZ should see 4%+ growth in the next 5 years Source: Nielsen Demographics Pop-Facts

30 THIS IS MY KIND OF SPIN Courtesy of DJ Smokey Smoke 1. Rents are rising, it s cheaper to buy a home in 77% of the country, and real estate is viewed very positively, especially by young people owning is cool again. Welcome to My House! My House by Flo Rida 2. Planning to buy in 2016? Don t mess around. More than 85% of buyers who plan to purchase in 2016 are focused on the spring and summer. Mess Around by Cage the Elephant 3. The world s pain is the real estate market s gain rates have fallen and increased buying power. Whatcha gonna do with that dessert? Dessert by Dawin 4. We all benefit from the occasional Smoke break. Smoke Break by Carrie Underwood 30

Metropolitan Washington Area Key Economic & Demographic Indicators

Metropolitan Washington Area Key Economic & Demographic Indicators Arlington County Community Facilities Study March 11, 2015 Lisa A. Sturtevant, PhD Vice President of Research National Housing Conference