FLOW AND SHORT INTEREST ANALYSIS 27/04/2015 < Last closing date US Broad Indices 28/04/2015 1:23 AM CET < Report creation date & time
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1 27/4/ < Last closing date US Broad Indices 28/4/ 1:23 AM CET < Report creation date & time ETF Tracking (SI / Daily D_MAV D MAV MSCI World URTH % 2.8%.4% 6.4% Bullish Bullish MSCI Emerging EEM 44..4% 9.7% 12.% 7.8% Bullish Bullish 1. SP SPY % 2.1% % Bullish Bullish 2. Dow Jones DIA % % 1.3% -9.8% 1.7 Bullish Bullish 3. Nasdac 1 QQQ % 4.4% 6.8% 27.9% Bullish Bullish 4. Russel (Small Cap) IWM %.1% 4.1% % 3. Bullish Bullish 1. US-SPY (SP index Tracker) Flow Analysis AUM (SPY): bn USD US-SPY (SP index Tracker) Performance Analysis Change in AUM from IN&OUT Flows, RSI_9D: 64 $, $, $1, $ -$1, -$, -$, -$4, -$, spy equity YTD IN/OUT Flows (RHS) Last days IN/OUT Flows(RHS) Daily IN/OUT Flows (RHS) 2. US-DIA (Dow Jones index Tracker) Flow Analysis AUM (DIA): 11.9 bn USD US-DIA (Dow Jones index Tracker) Performance Analysis $2, 3. US-QQQ (Nasdac1 index Tracker) Flow Analysis AUM (QQQ): 4.3 bn USD US-QQQ (Nasdaq1 index Tracker) Performance Analysis Change in AUM from IN&OUT Flows, RSI_9D: 6.3 dia equity YTD IN/OUT Flows (RHS) Last days IN/OUT Flows(RHS) Daily IN/OUT Flows (RHS) Change in AUM from IN&OUT Flows, RSI_9D: 72. (Currently Overbought) 4. US-IWM (Russel index Tracker) Flow Analysis AUM (IWM): 29.7 bn US-IWM (Russel index(small Cap) Tracker) Flow Analysis $1, $ -$1, -$2, -$3, $1, qqq equity YTD IN/OUT Flows (RHS) Last days IN/OUT Flows(RHS) Daily IN/OUT Flows (RHS) $, $ -$, -$1, -$, spy equity MOV_AVG_D MOV_AVG_D %YTD AUM(RHS) dia equity MOV_AVG_D MOV_AVG_D %YTD AUM(RHS) Last Update: 13-Apr- YTD outflows for SPY, the largest US listed ETF, stands at -19% of NAV (- USDbn), a powerful contrarian performance indicator, suggesting an enhanced probability of outperformance over the short term. There is indeed a high correlation and statistically proven negative correlation between outsized outflows on SPY and positive performance over the near term. DIA and QQQ outflows YTD are at -8% while only small cap ETF IWM stands at even level in terms of NAV so far this year, suggesting investors preference for small caps. qqq equity MOV_AVG_D MOV_AVG_D %YTD AUM(RHS) % % % 1% % - -1% -% -% -% % % 1% % - -1% -% -% % 1% % -1% -% -% -4% Change in AUM from IN&OUT Flows, RSI_9D: $8, $6, $4, $2, $ -$2, -$4, -$6, iwm equity YTD IN/OUT Flows (RHS) Last days IN/OUT Flows(RHS) Daily IN/OUT Flows (RHS) iwm equity MOV_AVG_D MOV_AVG_D %YTD AUM(RHS) 4% % % 1% % -1% -% This communication is provided for informational purposes only and for the recipient's sole use. It is not intended as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security referenced herein or investment advice. P.1
2 27/4/ < Last closing date EMERGING, EUROPE, LATAM 28/4/ 1:23 AM CET < Report creation date & time ETF Tracking (SI / Daily D_MAV D MAV MSCI World URTH % 2.8%.4% 6.4% Bullish Bullish SP SPY % 2.1% % Bullish Bullish. EM Markets (MSCI) EEM 44..4% 9.7% 12.% 7.8% -.3% 2.8 Bullish Bullish 6. Europe (Stoxx) FEZ % 3.2% 8.7% -6.3% Bullish Bullish 7. Europe (Small cap&div) DFE 9..9% 6.% 14.6% -4.3%.% 1.4 Bullish Bullish 8. Latin America (Index4) ILF % 11.9% 3.2% -12.6% -1.9%.7 Bullish Bearish. EM MARKETS (MSCI EMG index Tracker) Flow Analysis AUM : 8 bn USD(EEM+VWO) US-EEM Performance & Flow Analysis (% of NAV) $, 6. EUROPE (SPDR EURO STOXX Tracker) Flow Analysis AUM : 4.9 bn USD US-FEZ Performance & Flow Analysis (% of NAV) 4 7. EUROPE (Small Cap Div. Paying Tracker) Flow Analysis AUM :.9 bn USD US-DFE Performance & Flow Analysis (% of NAV) Change in AUM from IN&OUT Flows, RSI_9D: 64 eem equity Last days IN/OUT Flows EEM+VWO (RHS) Daily Volume EEM (in shares) Daily Volume VWO YTD IN/OUT Flows EEM+VWO (RHS) Daily IN/OUT Flows EEM+VWO (RHS) Change in AUM from IN&OUT Flows, RSI_9D: 74 (Currently Overbought) 8. LATIN AMERICA 4 Index (Latam4 Index) Flow Analysis AUM :.7 bn USD US-ILF Performance & Flow Analysis (% of NAV) $1, $, $ -$, -$1, -$, $4, fez equity YTD IN/OUT Flows (RHS) Last days IN/OUT Flows(RHS) Daily IN/OUT Flows (RHS) Change in AUM from IN&OUT Flows, RSI_9D: 68.2 $3, $2, $1, $ -$1, $1, $1, $8 $6 $4 $ $ -$ -$4 -$6 dfe equity YTD IN/OUT Flows (RHS) Last days IN/OUT Flows(RHS) Daily IN/OUT Flows (RHS) Short Interest EEM (in shares) (RHS) Short Interest VWO (RHS) eem equity MOV_AVG_D MOV_AVG_D %YTD EEM-AUM(RHS) %YTD VWO-AUM(RHS) %YTD EEM+VWO-AUM(RHS) fez equity MOV_AVG_D MOV_AVG_D %YTD AUM(RHS) Last Update: 22-Dec-14 For the second year in a row, EM funds witnessed a 1%+ investment outflows, obviously related to underperformance and which took place in the very last days suggesting portfolio managers have been selling a the last minute ahead of the year end snapshot. dfe equity MOV_AVG_D MOV_AVG_D %YTD AUM(RHS) % % 1% % -1% -% -% % % % 1% % - 18% 16% 14% 1% 1% 8% 6% 4% % % -% 4 1 Change in AUM from IN&OUT Flows, RSI_9D: $1, $7 $ $ $ -$ -$ -$7 -$1, ilf equity YTD IN/OUT Flows (RHS) Last days IN/OUT Flows(RHS) Daily IN/OUT Flows (RHS) ilf equity MOV_AVG_D MOV_AVG_D %YTD AUM(RHS) % % 1% % -1% -% -% This communication is provided for informational purposes only and for the recipient's sole use. It is not intended as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security referenced herein or investment advice. P.2
3 27/4/ < Last closing date PRECIOUS METALS AND SHARES 28/4/ 1:23 AM CET < Report creation date & time ETF Tracking (SI / Daily D_MAV D MAV MSCI World URTH % 2.8%.4% 6.4% Bullish Bullish SP SPY % 2.1% % Bullish Bullish 9. GOLD GLD % % 4.9% 2. Bullish Bearish 1. GOLD MINES GDX % 8.3% % 11.6% 3. Bullish Bearish 11. JUNIOR MINES GDXJ % 9.8% 4.2% -33.4% 9.2%.6 Bullish Bearish 12. SILVER SLV.7 4.% -1.7% 4.% -17.3%.3% 1.7 Bullish Bearish 9.US-GLD Flow Analysis AUM (GLD): 28.2 bn USD US-GLD Performance Analysis $1, $, $ -$, -$1, -$, -$, -$, -$, 1. US-GDX (Hui index Tracker) Flow Analysis AUM (GDX): 6.3 bn USD US-GDX Performance Analysis Change in AUM from IN&OUT Flows, RSI_9D: 39.2 gld equity YTD IN/OUT Flows (RHS) Last days IN/OUT Flows(RHS) Daily IN/OUT Flows (RHS) 11. US-GDXJ (Juniors index) Flow Analysis AUM (GDXJ): 1.6 bn USD US-GDXJ Performance Analysis US-SLV (Silver Tracker) Flow Analysis AUM (SLV):.2 bn USD US-SLV Flow Analysis Change in AUM from IN&OUT Flows, RSI_9D: 47.9 $3, gdx equity YTD IN/OUT Flows (RHS) Last days IN/OUT Flows(RHS) Daily IN/OUT Flows (RHS) Change in AUM from IN&OUT Flows, RSI_9D: 48.2 $2, $1, $ -$1, -$2, $1,4 $1, $1, $8 $6 $4 $ $ -$ gdxj equity YTD IN/OUT Flows (RHS) Last days IN/OUT Flows(RHS) Daily IN/OUT Flows (RHS) gld equity MOV_AVG_D MOV_AVG_D %YTD AUM(RHS) gdx equity MOV_AVG_D MOV_AVG_D %YTD AUM(RHS) Last Update: 6-Feb-14 : GLD outstanding are up so fra in while major gold mines and hunior gold mines have seen inflows of 12-18%. gdxj equity MOV_AVG_D MOV_AVG_D %YTD AUM(RHS) % - -% -% -% -4 % % % % % 1% % - -1% -% 14% 1% 1% 8% 6% 4% % % 4 1 Change in AUM from IN&OUT Flows, RSI_9D: 32 $1, $8 $6 $4 $ $ -$ -$4 slv equity YTD IN/OUT Flows (RHS) Last days IN/OUT Flows(RHS) Daily IN/OUT Flows (RHS) slv equity MOV_AVG_D MOV_AVG_D %YTD AUM(RHS) % % 1% % - -1% -% -% This communication is provided for informational purposes only and for the recipient's sole use. It is not intended as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security referenced herein or investment advice. P.3
4 27/4/ < Last closing date COMMODITIES 28/4/ 1:23 AM CET < Report creation date & time ETF Tracking (SI / Daily D_MAV D MAV MSCI World URTH % 2.8%.4% 6.4% Bullish Bullish SP SPY % 2.1% % Bullish Bullish 13. DB COMMOD. FUND DBC 18..%.4% -2.4% -32.3% -21.1% 2.3 Bullish Bearish 14. DB AGR. FUND DBA %.4% -1.7% -23.7% -7.6% 1.3 Bearish Bearish. WTI OIL FUND USO %.9% -4.1% -46.7% 1.8% 2.7 Bullish Bearish 16. US NAT. GAS. FUND UNG % -16.1% -2.% 1.9%.2 Bearish Bearish 13. COMMODITY (Powershare DB Commodity Fund) Flow Analysis AUM : 3 bn USD US-DBC Performance & Flow Analysis (% of NAV) AGRICULTURE (Powershare DB Ag. Fund) Flow Analysis AUM :.8 bn USD US-DBA Performance & Flow Analysis (% of NAV) 1 Change in AUM from IN&OUT Flows, RSI_9D: 2.6 $ dba equity YTD IN/OUT Flows (RHS) Last days IN/OUT Flows(RHS) Daily IN/OUT Flows (RHS). OIL (WTI Crude Oil Fund) Flow Analysis AUM : 2.7 bn USD US-USO Performance & Flow Analysis (% of NAV) 4 Change in AUM from IN&OUT Flows, RSI_9D: 64.4 Change in AUM from IN&OUT Flows, RSI_9D: NATGAS (US Natural Gas Fund) Flow Analysis AUM :.6 bn US-UNG Performance & Flow Analysis (% of NAV) $ -$ -$4 $2,7 $2, $1,7 $1, $7 $ -$ -$8 uso equity YTD IN/OUT Flows (RHS) Last days IN/OUT Flows(RHS) Daily IN/OUT Flows (RHS) $6 $4 $ $ -$ -$4 -$6 -$8 -$1, dbc equity YTD IN/OUT Flows (RHS) Last days IN/OUT Flows(RHS) Daily IN/OUT Flows (RHS) uso equity MOV_AVG_D MOV_AVG_D %YTD AUM(RHS) Last Update: 13-Nov-14 : Very large short interest ratio (34) in the NatGas ETF. dbc equity MOV_AVG_D MOV_AVG_D %YTD AUM(RHS) qqq equity MOV_AVG_D MOV_AVG_D %YTD AUM(RHS) 1% % - -1% -% -% -% % 1% % - -1% -% -% % % % % 1% % - -1% 1 Change in AUM from IN&OUT Flows, RSI_9D: 39.9 $4 ung equity YTD IN/OUT Flows (RHS) Last days IN/OUT Flows(RHS) Daily IN/OUT Flows (RHS) $ $ -$ -$4 -$6 -$8 1 1 Date MOV_AVG_D MOV_AVG_D %YTD AUM(RHS) 4% % % 1% % -1% -% -% -4% - -6% This communication is provided for informational purposes only and for the recipient's sole use. It is not intended as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security referenced herein or investment advice. P.4
5 27/4/ < Last closing date FIXED INCOME 1 28/4/ 1:23 AM CET < Report creation date & time ETF Tracking (SI / Daily D_MAV D MAV MSCI World URTH % 2.8%.4% 6.4% Bullish Bullish MSCI Emerging EEM 44..4% 9.7% 12.% 7.8% Bullish Bullish Y US Treas. Fund SHY.9.%.%.. 6.6% 2.3 Bullish Bullish Y US Treas. Fund IEF %.1% 2.3% 6.2% -.4% 2.3 Bullish Bullish 19. Y+ US Treas. Fund TLT % -1.2% 2..9% 1.3% 3.1 Bullish Bullish. US TIPS Fund TIP 1..% 1.3% 2.7% 1.3% 3.% 1.1 Bullish Bullish Y US Treasuries Fund Flow Analysis AUM : 8.6 bn USD US-SHY Performance & Flow Analysis (% of NAV) Y US Treasuries Fund Flow Analysis AUM : 7.1 bn USD US-IEF Performance & Flow Analysis (% of NAV) Change in AUM from IN&OUT Flows, RSI_9D: 7.3 Change in AUM from IN&OUT Flows, RSI_9D: 4.9 $8, $6, $4, $2, $ -$2, -$4, -$6, ief equity YTD IN/OUT Flows (RHS) Last days IN/OUT Flows(RHS) Daily IN/OUT Flows (RHS) $4, $3, $2, $1, $ -$1, -$2, -$3, -$4, shy equity YTD IN/OUT Flows (RHS) Last days IN/OUT Flows(RHS) Daily IN/OUT Flows (RHS) 19. +Y US Treasuries Fund Flow Analysis AUM : 6.6 bn USD US-TLT Performance & Flow Analysis (% of NAV) Last comment: 22-Dec-14 Investors have been piling up on long UST bonds. shy equity MOV_AVG_D MOV_AVG_D %YTD AUM(RHS) ief equity MOV_AVG_D MOV_AVG_D %YTD AUM(RHS) 4% % % 1% % -1% -% -% 18% 16% 14% 1% 1% 8% 6% 4% % % -% -4% Change in AUM from IN&OUT Flows, RSI_9D:. tlt equity YTD IN/OUT Flows (RHS) Last days IN/OUT Flows(RHS) Daily IN/OUT Flows (RHS) $4, $3, $2, $1, $ -$1, -$2, -$3,. US Treasury Inflation Protected Securities Fund Flow Analysis AUM : 13.8 bn US-TIP Performance & Flow Analysis (% of NAV) tlt equity MOV_AVG_D MOV_AVG_D Change in AUM from IN&OUT Flows, RSI_9D: 9.4 $2, $ -$2, -$4, -$6, -$8, tip equity YTD IN/OUT Flows (RHS) Last days IN/OUT Flows(RHS) Daily IN/OUT Flows (RHS) tip equity MOV_AVG_D MOV_AVG_D %YTD AUM(RHS) % 1% % -1% -% -% -4% This communication is provided for informational purposes only and for the recipient's sole use. It is not intended as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security referenced herein or investment advice. P.
6 27/4/ < Last closing date FIXED INCOME 2 28/4/ 1:23 AM CET < Report creation date & time ETF Tracking (SI / Daily D_MAV D MAV MSCI World URTH % 2.8%.4% 6.4% Bullish Bullish MSCI Emerging EEM 44..4% 9.7% 12.% 7.8% Bullish Bullish 21. US Aggr. Invest. Grade AGG 111..%.1% 1.3% 3.% 3.%. Bullish Bullish 22. High Yield Corporates HYG 91.4.%.8% 2.% -3.1% Bullish Bearish 23. Y+ US Treas. Fund MUB % % 1.7% 16.8%.7 Bearish Bullish 24. US TIPS Fund BND %.% 1.2% % 1.1 Bullish Bullish 21. Aggregate US Investment Grade Fund Flow Analysis AUM : 24.2 bn USD US-AGG Performance & Flow Analysis (% of NAV) US High Yield Corporates Fund Flow Analysis AUM : 17.3 bn USD US-HYG Performance & Flow Analysis (% of NAV) Change in AUM from IN&OUT Flows, RSI_9D: 8.8 $4, hyg equity YTD IN/OUT Flows (RHS) Last days IN/OUT Flows(RHS) Daily IN/OUT Flows (RHS) 23. Muni Bond (Investment Grade) Fund Flow Analysis AUM : 4.8 bn USD US-MUB Performance & Flow Analysis (% of NAV) Change in AUM from IN&OUT Flows, RSI_9D: 64.4 Change in AUM from IN&OUT Flows, RSI_9D: US Total Bond Market Fund Flow Analysis AUM : 27.1 bn USD US-BND Performance & Flow Analysis (% of NAV) $2, $ -$2, -$4, $1, $1, $8 $6 $4 $ $ -$ -$4 mub equity YTD IN/OUT Flows (RHS) Last days IN/OUT Flows(RHS) Daily IN/OUT Flows (RHS) $9,4 agg equity YTD IN/OUT Flows (RHS) Last days IN/OUT Flows(RHS) Daily IN/OUT Flows (RHS) $7,4 $,4 $3,4 $1,4 -$ hyg equity MOV_AVG_D MOV_AVG_D %YTD AUM(RHS) Last Update: 18-Feb- : Investors keep piling up on Muni bonds, High yields on in High Yield this year consistent with the search (gasp)for yield. agg equity MOV_AVG_D MOV_AVG_D %YTD AUM(RHS) mub equity MOV_AVG_D MOV_AVG_D %YTD AUM(RHS) 6% 4% % % 1% % -1% 4% % % -% -4% % % % % % 1% % - -1% Change in AUM from IN&OUT Flows, RSI_9D: 2.7 $1, bnd us equity YTD IN/OUT Flows (RHS) Last days IN/OUT Flows(RHS) Daily IN/OUT Flows (RHS) $8, $6, $4, $2, $ -$2, bnd us equity MOV_AVG_D MOV_AVG_D %YTD AUM(RHS) 4% % % 1% % -1% This communication is provided for informational purposes only and for the recipient's sole use. It is not intended as a recommendation, an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security referenced herein or investment advice. P.6
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