Open Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle

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1 Commodities Daily 9 October 2009 Focus: SHFE Copper forward curves - The return of the Chinese after their extended holiday has seen the SHFE Copper curve start playing catch up with the LME. There is still work to do however, and the shake out will likely continue into the start of next week. It was a busy day for the metals on Thursday, with everything bar tin putting in a very strong performance price wise. The rally was mainly technical in nature. Zinc was by far the biggest beneficiary, climbing over 7%, and on the back of very good turnover, as its gains attracted momentum players. Walter de Wet* CFA +44 (20) Walter.DeWet@standardbank.com Leon Westgate* +44 (20) Leon.Westgate@standardbank.com Manqoba Madinane* +27 (11) Manqoba.Madinane@standardbank.co.za This morning has seen the base metals come off the boil a little, with a stronger dollar sparking a bit of a technical retracement. The currency effect has also offset the impact from stronger Asian equity markets. Copper volumes haven t benefited significantly from the return of the Chinese, however Zinc has continued to be very busy. Buying interest in late NY trade yesterday propelled gold to a new record high at $1,061, reversing an earlier decline. However, gold has since slipped back to $1,044 this morning, amid increased physical selling interest. Thermal coal contracts were firmer in European trade yesterday as crude oil prices held steady in the European session while the Baltic Dry index advanced 3.96% signalling increased global dry bulk trade activity. Commodity price data (8 October 2009) Base metals LME 3-month Open Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle Change in cash settle Cash 3m Aluminium 1,890 1,911 1,925 1, , Copper 6,290 6,331 6,363 6, , Lead 2,280 2,290 2,285 2, , Nickel 19,263 19,495 19,500 18, , , Tin 14,715 14,950 14,950 14, , Zinc 2,005 2,085 2,100 1, , Open Close High Low day/day Change (%) ICE Brent % NYMEX WTI % ICE Gasoil % API2 Q4' % ICE EUA Dec % AM Fix PM Fix High bid Low offer Closing bid Change (d/d) EFPs Gold* 1, , , , , /1.2 Silver /3.5 Platinum 1, , , , , /7 Palladium /3 Sources: Standard Bank; LME; BBG Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of this document.

2 Focus: SHFE Copper forward curves The return of the Chinese after their extended holiday has seen the SHFE Copper curve start playing catch up with the LME. There is still work to do however, and the shake out will likely continue into the start of next week. Looking at the evolution of the SHFE curve vs the LME during the Chinese holiday period (see chart) what is noticeable is that the back end of the SHFE curve has shifted up substantially. The LME curve, by way of contrast, has shifted higher more or less in unison. SHFE Copper Curves vs LME (RMB) The other important thing to note is that the nearby SHFE curve still remains in backwardation, albeit a less pronounced than it was before the holiday started. This suggests that the recent declines in SHFE inventory - down a further 6,897 mt today - is indicative of actual physical demand. Looking ahead, the key factor in terms of the shape of the SHFE curve, and the copper market generally, is at what point Chinese demand for copper is enough to see SHFE copper trade at a premium to LME material again. Leon Westgate Base metals Sources: Standard Bank It was a busy day for the metals on Thursday, with everything bar tin putting in a very strong performance price wise. The rally was kicked off by a combination of stronger Asian equities and very good Australian unemployment numbers. A weaker dollar also played an important part, however after the initial shove, much of the day's move was technical in nature. Zinc was by far the biggest beneficiary, climbing over 7%, and on the back of very good turnover, as its gains attracted momentum players. This morning has seen the base metals come off the boil a little, with a stronger dollar sparking a bit of a technical retracement. The currency effect has also offset the impact from stronger Asian equity markets. Copper volumes haven t benefited significantly from the return of the Chinese, however Zinc has continued to be very busy, with turnover on LME Select outpacing even that of Copper until the early afternoon. Copper closed nearly 4% higher on Thursday, with the move occurring on the back of very strong volumes. After an initial technical rally, which petered out during the late morning, better than expected US unemployment figures and further buying activity when the US markets opened, saw prices shoot up again. Friday has seen the red metal fall back slightly. Interestingly the Chinese initially emerged as sellers this morning, however that downwards momentum faded pretty quickly, with prices picking back up heading into the afternoon. In other news, Reuters - citing a labour union official - are reporting that workers at the Escondida copper mine will probably accept a pay offer from the owners BHP Billiton. We note however that, given that the contract only expires on December 5th, there is still plenty of room for the unions to change their stance. Zinc was that stand out performer on Thursday, climbing over 7%. The move appeared to be technical in nature, with the metal breaking out of its recent range. The rally attracted momentum players which ramped prices up further and saw volumes build up very strongly. While there are supply-side issues at the moment, with production halted at Minmetal s Century mine after a pipeline spillage, we would expect to see impact first start to be felt in the spot concentrates market (still well supplied) before it has an effect on refined metals prices. Aluminium has been one of the steadier metals during Friday morning, with bullish LME inventory data appearing to lend some support to the metal. Headline stocks fell by 7,950 mt, while on-warrant stocks also declined by 1,700 mt. Volumes outside of the big three - Aluminium, Copper and Zinc - have been pretty disappointing, perhaps due to much of the industry being airborne and headed to London for LME Week Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 SHFE 09/10/2009 SHFE 30/09/200 LME 09/10/2009 LME 30/09/2009 Leon Westgate 2

3 Gold had a rollercoaster ride on Thursday. The dollar s slide from $ to $ between Asian and London trade propelled gold from $1,043 to $1,058 yesterday, however gold encountered resistance in European trade after the ECB held its policy rate steady at 1.0% stating inflation pressures in the Eurozone are still moderate. Gold declined to $1,043 in early NY trade after US initial jobless claims for the week-ended 4 October signalled some improvement in US labour market conditions, before fund buying interest on the dip propelled gold to a new record high at $1,061 in late NY trade. Gold has since slipped back to $1,044 this morning, amid increased physical selling interest. The greenback has also regained some lost ground today, climbing from $ to $ against the euro, further weighing on prices. Meanwhile, ETF Securities Ltd liquidated 16,745oz from its gold investment holdings this morning. Gold support and resistance are at $1,040 and $1,058 respectively today. In economic data this morning, Germany s CPI contracted 0.4% m/m in September, in-line with market expectations. This data reinforced the ECB s statement of benign inflation pressures in the Eurozone. Platinum also come under pressure this morning despite gains in Asian equity markets slipping from $1,350 to $1,328. Support and resistance are at $1,324 and $1,350 respectively today. In contrast, palladium has seen some aggressive buying interest this morning, with the metal recovering from its morning lows to reach a high of $325/oz. In other news, ETF Securities Ltd liquidated 2,667oz, to 530,814oz, in its palladium investment holdings. Manqoba Madinane Crude oil prices came under pressure in electronic trade throughout the Asian session this morning, ignoring gains in Asian equity markets, as the greenback firmed from $ to $ against the euro. Subsequently, front-month WTI crude oil slipped from $71.50/bbl to $70.96/bbl before jumping back to $71.67/bbl. Support and resistance for front-month WTI crude oil are at $69.50/bbl and $72.88/bbl respectively today. Meanwhile, the IEA, in its latest monthly report, increased its global crude oil demand forecast for 2010 by 350,000 bpd to 86.1 million bpd due to stronger than expected crude oil consumption data in July and August from the US, Latin America and Asia. Thermal coal contracts were firmer in European trade yesterday as crude oil prices held steady in the European session while the Baltic Dry index advanced 3.96% signalling increased global dry bulk trade activity. API2(CIF ARA) and API4(FOB) for Q4:09 delivery gained $0.20/mt to $73.40/mt and $65.65/mt respectively. Carbon contracts came under pressure yesterday amid lower German base load power prices. ICE EUA for December 2009 delivery shed EUR0.25/mtCO2 to EUR13.40/mtCO2; UN-backed CER for December 2009 delivery slipped EUR0.18/mtCO2 to EUR12.22/mtCO2. Manqoba Madinane 3

4 Base metals Daily LME stock movement (mt) Metal Today Yesterday In Out One day change YTD change (mt) Contract turnover Aluminium 4,576,150 4,579,475 3,125 6,450-3,325 2,247, , ,666 Copper 346, , ,075 8, ,877 Lead 127, , ,725 2, ,787 Nickel 121, , ,026 1, ,042 Tin 26,065 26, , ,096 Zinc 434, , ,125 14, ,336 Shanghai 3-month forward prices COMEX active month future prices Metal Open Last 1d Change Open Close Change Change (%) Aluminium 15,050 14, Ali Oct' % Copper 49,570 49,160 1,710 Cu Oct' % Zinc 16,115 15, ZAR metal prices (8 October 2009) Aluminium Copper Lead Nickel Tin Zinc ZAR/USD fix Cash 13,665 45,916 16, , ,591 14, month 14,296 47,360 17, , ,836 15, futures pricing Price Change Price Change Price Change Price Change Price Change 1-month forward 2-month forward 3-month forward 6-month forward 1-year forward Sing Gasoil ($/bbbl) Gasoil 0.1% Rdam ($/mt) NWE CIF jet ($/mt) Singapore Kero ($/bbl) % Rdam barges ($/mt) % Fuel Oil FOB ($/mt) Sing FO 380 Cargo ($/mt) Sing FO180 Cargo ($/mt) Thermal coal Q4:09 Q1:10 Q2:10 Cal 11 Cal 12 API2 (CIF ARA) API4 (FOB RBCT) Carbon Spot Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 ICE - ECX EUA ( /mt) ICE - ECX CER ( /mt) Forwards (%) 1-month 2-month 3-month 6-month 12-month Gold Silver USD Libor Technical Indicators 30-day RSI 10-day MA 20-day MA 100-day MA 200-day MA Support Resistance Gold , , , , Silver Platinum , , , , , , Palladium Active Month Future COMEX GLD COMEX SLV NYMEX PAL NYMEX PLAT DGCX GLD TOCOM GLD CBOT GLD Dec'09 Sep'09 Oct'09 Oct'09 Oct'09 Jun'10 Aug'09 Settlement 1, , , , , Open Interest 482, ,417 21,376 29,904 1,838 92,753 3,884 Change in Open Interest -1, , Date: 8 October 2009 Sources: Standard Bank; LME; Bloomberg Cancelled warrants (mt) Cancelled warrants (%) 4

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