Open Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle. Open Close High Low day/day Change (%) ATM 1-m vol ATM 6-m vol ATM 1-y vol

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1 Commodities Daily 8 July 2009 Focus: Platinum racing towards our target Platinum is fast approaching our target of $1,100, and could fall even further. Palladium has been holding up well relative to platinum. While we maintain that both metals will remain on the defensive, we believe that palladium will outperform platinum. Walter de Wet* CFA +44 (20) Walter.DeWet@standardbank.com Leon Westgate* +44 (20) Leon.Westgate@standardbank.com Manqoba Madinane* +27 (11) Manqoba.Madinane@standardbank.co.za Commodities remain under pressure. Given the high correlation between metals and equities of late, base metals could take strain today. For platinum and palladium, the selling continues. Our initial target was $1,100, and it seems that we might have overshot on the downside. Economic sentiment towards equities remains negative, and we expect this to weigh on especially PGM. We are more bullish on palladium than platinum. Front-month WTI Crude oil prices remain on the back foot pressured by weak US oil demand. More militant attacks on crude oil pipelines belonging to Royal Dutch Shell and Agip emerged in Nigeria this morning. This should support crude oil prices today. Commodity price data (7 July 2009) Base metals LME 3-month Open Close High Low Daily change Change (%) Cash Settle Change in cash settle Cash 3m Aluminium 1,642 1,618 1,648 1, , Copper 5,028 4,881 5,045 4, , Lead 1,730 1,660 1,736 1, , Nickel 16,150 15,655 16,210 15, , Tin 14,350 14,125 14,400 14, , Zinc 1,588 1,569 1,603 1, , Sources: Standard Bank; LME; Bloomberg Open Close High Low day/day Change (%) ATM 1-m vol ATM 6-m vol ATM 1-y vol ICE Brent % NYMEX WTI % ICE Gasoil % API2 Q3' % ICE EUA Dec % AM Fix PM Fix High bid Low offer Closing bid Change (d/d) EFPs Gold /0.10 Silver /0.0 Platinum 1, , , , , /5 Palladium /3 Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of this document.

2 Focus: Platinum racing towards our target Platinum is fast approaching our target of $1,100, and could fall even further. Palladium has been holding up well relative to platinum. While we maintain that both metals will remain on the defensive, we believe that palladium will outperform platinum. A look at the latest CFTC data (which captures data up until Tuesday last week) confirms substantial speculative long positions in platinum on NYMEX. The net speculative position has been building steadily since April when net speculative longs were at 318,550oz. The latest figure is 499,250oz. We believe that some of the longs have already been liquidated over the past week, but could continue as risk aversion rises. This build-up in speculative positions is contrary to what we see in the physical market. Besides auto sales, which remain under pressure, we estimate that between January and May this year, Switzerland imported 227,300oz of platinum. The only sizable demand was from China during this time. But even Chinese demand has been declining. In Q1:09, we estimate China imported on average 131,800oz/month. In May, China imported only 95,643oz of platinum from Switzerland. We believe this figure will much less in June and July. Palladium s net speculative position has also been building steadily since March when net speculative longs were at 441,100oz. The latest figure puts it at 892,700oz. Long positions could also see some liquidations. But the physical market appears stronger Platinum CFTC data oz ('000) Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Net speculative long Speculative short Jul-08 Oct-08 Sources: Standard CIB Global Research; CFTC Jan-09 Apr-09 Speculative long than that for platinum. Russia exported large volumes of palladium to Switzerland in January and February. However, between March and May, Switzerland net exported 287,950oz of palladium. Apart from the physical market, ETF palladium holdings continue to grow and remain more stable than those for platinum. Base metals Commodities remain under pressure. As equity markets come under increasing pressure, risk aversion continue to rise. In this environment, commodities could find it difficult to move higher. Furthermore, in the absence of any macroeconomic news and high stock levels for metals, equity and forex markets are likely to remain the driving force of prices. Indications are that equity markets may continue their bearish trend. European equities are trading lower this morning, while the US futures market signals slight downside for US equities. At the same time, the S&P is on the brink of breaking below key technical support levels at 875/880. Given the high correlation between metals and equities of late, base metals could take strain today. However, despite the sell-off in commodities, base metals are holding up well compared other commodities like oil. Amid increased risk aversion, which supports the dollar, the G8 meeting is on the go in the background. There has been much speculation about the dollar s status as the world s reserve currency. We believe the dollar s status as reserve currency will be confirmed tomorrow. However, there might be more suggestions and comments by non-g8 member countries on their willingness to wean themselves off dollar dependence. This might un-nerve the forex market, but the market seems prepared for this. We see any resultant dollar weakness as temporary. However, we still expect dollar weakness towards yearend but such weakness wouldn t come from reserve currency issues. Aluminium is hanging on to the support level around $1,600, ignoring the slide in front-month Brent crude to below $62. The aluminium market seems to be focusing on the longer-dated oil prices, which, despite the current decline in front month oil prices, remain above $80/bbl. A break below $1,590 could see aluminium test $1,560. Copper is trading slightly lower today but has found support at $4,850. The metal saw another decline of 575mt in LME inventories providing additional support in an otherwise bearish commodities market environment this morning. While we expect nickel, zinc and lead to look to copper for direction. But volumes are low, and movements may be erratic. Under current market conditions, we believe bias for these metals is to the downside. 2

3 For platinum and palladium, the selling continues. Our initial target was $1,100, and it seems that we might have overshot on the downside. Economic sentiment towards equities remains negative, and we expect this to weigh on especially PGM. We are more bullish on palladium than platinum. Platinum s next support level is at $1,100 and resistance is at $1,130. Palladium support is at $235 and resistance at $242. With the S&P looking to test key support levels at 875/880, there might be further downside for equities. As equities fall, US Treasuries continue to be bid. Since Monday, the yield on the 10-year government bond has declined from 3.55% to 3.42%. This buying of US Treasuries is supporting the dollar. While we expect dollar strength to weigh on gold, we are seeing good technical support and physical buying interest at the $919 $920 area. But we still see limited upside for gold and selling continues to come through whenever the price closes in on $930. Given that gold remains bid, but with limited upside, while risk aversion continues to rise, we advise buying gold in liquid EM currency. Under conditions of higher risk aversion, EM currencies may come under increased pressure. In fact, since this morning, many EM currencies has already shown some depreciation. Gold support is at 920 and $915, with resistance at $930 and $936. We believe silver, like PGM, will struggle under current conditions, and remains susceptible to lower price movements. However, gold might provide some temporary support. Silver support levels are at $13.01 and $12.91, with resistance at $13.30 and $ Front-month WTI Crude oil prices remain on the back foot pressured by weak US oil demand. US API data, released yesterday, showed a 767K barrel and 3,416K barrel increase in US gasoline and distillate fuels inventories. Although API data showed a 1,398K draw on crude oil inventories, we do not see this as indicating increased demand but rather a result of contracting refinery margins, with the US Gulf coast crack spread falling 8.4% w/w, to $3.82/bbl. Global equity index futures are pricing in losses in Europe and the US today, which may weigh further on nearby crude. Weekly US ABC consumer confidence index continues to disappoint sliding to -52 against market expectations for -50. Indian local car sales fell 5.25% m/m in June, to 107,531 units, boding ill for Indian crude oil demand. Look out for Q1:09 Eurozone GDP data for clues on European crude oil demand. More militant attacks on crude oil pipelines belonging to Royal Dutch Shell and Agip emerged in Nigeria this morning. This should support crude oil prices today. Thermal coal contract prices slipped yesterday amid weaker crude oil prices. API2(CIF ARA) for Q3:09 delivery shed $0.10/mt, to $65.75/mt. API4(FOB) slipped $0.55/mt, to $60.35/mt. Coal export tonnage at the Richards Bay Coal terminal increased 44.7% m/m, to 5.5 million tonnes in June. The higher coal export volume signals improving European thermal coal demand and possibly increasing Asian buying interest especially after rising freight costs and lower Chinese demand pressured the Qinghuangdao-Newcastle arbitrage. According to the Indian coal ministry, India may need to import 43 million tonnes in the year ending March 2010 following a domestic coal production short-fall. This should support thermal coal contract prices. Going against the rest of the energy complex, carbon emissions contract prices firmed yesterday following German base load power prices higher. Active-year ICE EUA gained EUR0.17/mtCO2, to EUR13.11/mtCO2. UN-backed CER for December 2009 delivery gained EUR0.14/mtCO2, to EUR11.96/mtCO2. By Manqoba Madinane 3

4 Base metals Daily LME stock movement (mt) Metal Today Yesterday In Out One day change YTD change (mt) Contract turnover Aluminium 4,397,100 4,399,600 2,000 4,500-2,500 2,068, , ,877 Copper 265, , ,425 14, ,598 Lead 92,950 92, , ,761 Nickel 109, , ,984 2, ,586 Tin 17,695 17, , ,376 Zinc 351, , ,450 7, ,282 Shanghai 3-month forward prices Copper 38,610 38, Cu July' % Zinc 13,220 13, ZAR metal prices (6 July 2009) Aluminium Copper Lead Nickel Tin Zinc ZAR/USD fix Cash 12,833 39,951 13, , ,181 12, month 13,126 39,597 13, , ,589 12, futures pricing Price Change Price Change Price Change Price Change Price Change 1-month forward 2-month forward 3-month forward 6-month forward 1-year forward Sing Gasoil ($/bbbl) Gasoil 0.1% Rdam ($/mt) NWE CIF jet ($/mt) Singapore Kero ($/bbl) % Rdam barges ($/mt) % Fuel Oil FOB ($/mt) Sing FO 380 Cargo ($/mt) Sing FO180 Cargo ($/mt) Thermal coal Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Cal 11 Cal 12 API2 (CIF ARA) API4 (FOB RBCT) Carbon Spot Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 ICE - ECX EUA ( /mt) ICE - ECX CER ( /mt) Forwards (%) 1-month 2-month 3-month 6-month 12-month Gold Silver USD Libor Technical Indicators 30-day RSI 10-day MA 20-day MA 100-day MA 200-day MA Support Resistance Gold Silver Platinum , , , , , , Palladium Active Month Future COMEX GLD COMEX SLV NYMEX PAL NYMEX PLAT DGCX GLD TOCOM GLD CBOT GLD Aug'09 Sep'09 Oct'09 Oct'09 Aug'09 Jun'10 Aug'09 Settlement , , Open Interest 381, ,397 16,849 22, ,403 3,132 Change in Open Interest Date: 6 July 2009 Sources: Standard Bank; LME; Bloomberg Cancelled warrants (mt) COMEX active month future prices Cancelled warrants (%) Metal Open Last 1d Change Open Close Change Change (%) Aluminium 13,440 13, Ali July' % 4

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