2015 FIRST HALF YEAR RESULTS ANALYST CALL

Transcription

1 2015 FIRST HALF YEAR RESULTS ANALYST CALL Matthias Hartmann, CEO Christian Diedrich, CFO GfK SE, August 14,

2 Disclaimer This presentation constitutes neither an offer nor recommendation to subscribe or buy in any other way securities of GfK SE or any of the companies that are members of the Group at present or in the future, nor does it form part of such an offer and it should not be understood as such. The presentation or any part thereof should not form the basis for a contract for the purchase or subscription of securities of GfK SE or any of the companies that are members of the Group or represent a guarantee in connection with such contract. All the information contained in this presentation has been established with care. Nevertheless, we cannot guarantee its reliability or completeness and the information contained herein should not be deemed as a guarantee in this respect. The information contained in this presentation may be supplemented, amended and updated. Certain statements made herein may express future expectations, which are based on current opinions and assumptions of the management and are subject to foreseeable and unforeseeable risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance and events may differ considerably from the statements expressed in the present information, partly due to changing business or market conditions and to the growth prospects forecast by the management of GfK SE. These and other factors may have an unfavorable impact on the results and financial consequences described in this presentation. GfK SE does not undertake to update or revise statements on future developments, on the basis of new information, future events or for other reasons. You should not rely on statements made about future developments, which simply express expectations as of the date of this presentation. This document does not constitute an offer of sale of securities in the United States of America. Securities may not be offered or sold in the United States of America without registration or exemption from registration in accordance with the U.S. Securities Act of 1933 in its currently valid form. 2

3 Agenda Business Highlights Matthias Hartmann, CEO Financial Results Christian Diedrich, CFO Guidance Matthias Hartmann, CEO Q&A Matthias Hartmann, CEO Christian Diedrich, CFO 3

4 Business Highlights Matthias Hartmann, CEO 4

5 GfK and its peers in HY Sales growth in % for HY Data Investment Management n/a n/a Ipsos does not report growth at constant FX rates Total Organic At constant currency Nielsen reports no organic growth Q1 results (WPP will announce HY1 results on 26 th August 2015) 1 Data Investment Management segment isolated. Comprises Kantar, TNS, Millward Brown and The Futures Company, among others. Comparison analysis on revenue basis 5

6 Consumer Choices Highlights in HY Growth Organic growth +1.8% (Total growth: +8.5%; FX effect: +6.6%) Solid order book and expected TAM sales indicate stronger growth as of Q Consumer Choices (CC) Point of Sales Tracking All regions with solid growth, exception: Northern Europe (flat) Emerging Markets in Latam and Asia with good growth and positive outlook Business Expansion of the Trends and Forecasting business in North America with good progress Ongoing investments lower the margin Audience Measurement 1 New contract wins in Singapore, Sweden and Poland 2 Radio contract in New Zealand announced by RBA (not yet signed) Panel build-up in Brazil and KSA progressing to secure Q4 sales generation 1 formerly: Retail Tracking 2 Radio Broadcasters Association 6

7 GfK's recent wins demonstrate the success of our media strategy Recent wins in Audience Measurement 2014 TAM Brazil TAM Kingdom of Saudi Arabia RAM Australia (Nielsen as incumbent) 2015 TAM Singapore (Kantar as incumbent) DAM Poland (beating national incumbent) Consultancy Sweden RAM New Zealand (not yet signed) Important developments in 2015 Announcement by AGF (German JIC) that a cross media metric will be offered jointly with Google based on GfK Crossmedia Link DAM = Digital Audience Measurement RAM = Radio Audience Measurement TAM = Television Audience Measurement 7

8 TV Audience Measurement including Digital in Singapore Complete re-launch of TAM Singapore Initial contract is for 3 (+2) years Content: Single Source, HH, 80% UMX, 20% TV Logger LEOtrace will be on 2,000 individuals (mobile, tablet, PC and laptop) Service will be 100% funded by the MDA A government agency led measurement with key stakeholders in the industry involved Contract signed with Media Development Authority (MDA) Singapore Data delivery expected to start in WHAT JIC ONE GfK SUCCESS A collaboration between many elements in GfK with both classic TAM and DAM being combined Full use of all GfK assets to develop the integrated deliverable Great co-ordination between local, regional and global teams HY Complete re-launch of TAM Singapore with 1,200HH TAM panel A move from a broadcaster owned (incumbent Kantar) service to a Government authority owned tender improved business awareness in Asian Region 8

9 Audience Measurement global presence Europe Austria (TV, Radio) Belgium (TV, Radio) Germany (TV, Radio) Italy (Radio) Lebanon (TV) Netherlands (TV, Radio) Poland (Online) new Portugal (TV) Romania (Radio) Ukraine (Radio) Switzerland (Radio) Sweden (Consultancy on TV, Radio, Online) new Asia and the Pacific Australia (Radio) New Zealand (Radio) new not yet signed Singapore (TV, digital) new Malaysia (Radio) North America Latin America Africa Middle East USA (MRI) Brazil (TV) Morocco (TV) not yet signed Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (TV) 9

10 Recent Audience Measurement wins will contribute to strong media growth as of Q New Contract signature Set-up phase Sales Option for contract extension H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 Australia RAM Brazil TAM KSA TAM Morocco TAM (contract not yet signed) PBI Poland Online Singapore TAM Sweden Consultancy New Zealand RAM (contract not yet signed) RAM = Radio Audience Measurement TAM = Television Audience Measurement 10

11 Recent renewals in Audience Measurement will secure ongoing sales contribution Contract signature for renewal Former contract Renewed contract Option for contract extension Belgium TAM/RAM H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 Switzerland RAM Netherlands TAM Netherlands RAM RAM = Radio Audience Measurement TAM = Television Audience Measurement 11

12 Consumer Experiences Highlights in HY Topline stabilized, margin further improved Organic growth -0.7% (Total growth: +6.1%; FX effect: +6.8%) Order book supports continued stabilization of sales in HY2 Margin improvement ongoing +0.4 pts Consumer Experiences (CE) Examples of contract wins from global products: Renewal of a Global Customer Satisfaction Study for a global hotel chain based on DRIVE platform Project wins with Market Opportunity & Innovation products for various healthcare companies Headcount reduced by 172 FTE within first six months Global branded products contributing 43% of sector sales 12

13 GfK expands digital portfolio in Shopper research Sector Consumer Experiences Company The company pioneered virtual shopper research by focusing on analyzing behavior Developed software Simstore, a cloud-based software, which creates photo-realistic 2D and 3D shopping environments Clients can optimize their pricing, assortment, packaging, planograms and product Key Figures Shares acquired: 100% FTE 2014: 60 Research in more than 30 countries for clients such as Clients Portfolio fit Strengthen of digital expertise in CE Scalable software is an ideal complement to the GfK portfolio and supports our strategy towards digitalization and global products 13

14 Financial Results HY Christian Diedrich, CFO 14

15 GfK Group HY1 results In m Sales Growth rate in % AOI Margin in % HY1 Actual Acquisitions vs vs 2014 Actual Actual Total Organic FX effect 2015 Consumer Choices % 1.8% 0.2% 6.6% % -1.0pts Consumer Experiences % -0.7% 0.0% 6.8% % 0.4pts Other Group % 0.3% 0.1% 6.7% % -0.3pts Bottom-line sales growth of 0.3% driven by sector Consumer Choices Foreign exchange rate contributed positively to overall growth of 7.1% Adjusted operating income grew by 2.5 m with slight margin decline of -0.3pts Continued investments in sector Consumer Choices resulted in margin decline of -1.0pts Consumer Experiences with continued margin improvement of 0.4pts and stabilized sales growth of -0.7% Rounding differences possible 15

16 5 out of 6 regions growing organically Strong growth in Latin America & APAC, Northern Europe declining Sales in m North America 152 m Northern Europe m CEE/META 62 m In % Q1 Q2 HY1 Total Organic FX In % Q1 Q2 HY1 Total Organic FX In % Q1 Q2 HY1 Total Organic FX Latin America 31 m Southern & Western Europe 134 m Asia and the Pacific 94 m In % Q1 Q2 HY1 Total Organic FX In % Q1 Q2 HY1 Total Organic FX In % Q1 Q2 HY1 Total Organic FX

17 AOI bridge GfK Group Q YTD AOI margin compared to Q YTD (in pts) Q YTD Product & System ramp-up Depreciation Restructuring & Productivity Improvement Volume/Sales Mix Q YTD 17

18 Improved sales and AOI development In m 2015 Q2 Changes Yr/Yr in % 2015 HY1 Changes Yr/Yr in % Sales Gross income from sales SGA expenses Other operating expenses (net) Highlighted items Adjusted operating income AOI Margin 11.4% -1.0 pts 9.5% -0.3 pts Highlighted items Operating income Income from participations EBIT EBIT Margin 9.8% -1.2 pts 7.9% -0.7 pts Financial result Income before tax Tax on income Tax rate 43.1% 7.9 pts 40.9% 5.7 pts Consolidated total income Earnings per share

19 Highlighted items In m Write-ups and write-downs of additional assets identified on acquisitions Income and expenses in connection with share and asset deals Income and expenses in connection with reorganization and improvement projects 2014 HY HY Personnel expenses for share-based incentive payments Currency conversion differences Income and expenses related to one-off effects and other exceptional circumstances Total highlighted items Rounding differences possible 19

20 Cash flow In m 2014 HY HY1 Changes Consolidated total income Amortization (incl. reversal) Changes in inventories, receivables, payables Others Interest result Taxes paid Cash flow from operating activity CAPEX Acquisitions, other financial investments and asset disposals Free cash flow after acquisitions, other investments and asset disposals Cash flow from financing activity

21 Net Debt HY 2014 HY 2015 Net Debt (IFRS), in m Net Debt/EBITDA (IFRS) Q / Schuldschein fix Schuldschein floating Bank loans Bond Available lines/rcf Rounding differences possible 1 Always as of year end, incl. extension option of RCF 21

22 Guidance Matthias Hartmann, CEO 22

23 Guidance 2015 and Return to moderate organic growth Adjusted operating income is expected to improve. Margin should increase to a level of between 12.4% and 12.8% Sales coverage as at the end of June 2015 reached 78.5% of planned annual sales (2014: 81.6%), which is well in line with historic range of 77.3% to 81.9% GfK aims at: Outpacing the market in terms of organic growth AOI margin of 14% to 15% 23

24 Q&A Matthias Hartmann, CEO Christian Diedrich, CFO 24

25 STAY IN TOUCH WITH US GfK Investor Relations Team Available on itunes: GfK s Investor Relations ipad App. Download now. 25

26 Key financial dates to remember Q3/ First Nine Months Results November 2015 Available online on gfk.com Trading Statement 29 January 2016 Available online on gfk.com Annual Report 2015 Accounts Press conference 18 March 2016 Available online on gfk.com Q1/ First Quarter Results May 2016 Available online on gfk.com Annual General Meeting 20 May 2016 Fuerth/GE Please contact for further information on any of the publications or events 26

27 Events to remember Roadshow with Deutsche Bank 20 August 2015 Warsaw/PL Roadshow with CITI 3 September 2015 London/UK Commerzbank Sector Week 9 September 2015 Frankfurt/GE UBS Best of Germany Conference 17 September 2015 New York/US Berenberg Goldman Sachs German Corporate Conference 21 September 2015 Munich/GE Baader Investment Conference 22 September 2015 Munich/GE ODDO Mid Cap Conference 7-8 January 2016 Lyon/FR KeplerChevreux German Corporate Conference 18 January 2016 Frankfurt/GE GfK Capital Market Day 4-5 February 2016 Frankfurt/GE Please contact investor.relations@gfk.com for further information on any of the publications or events 27

28 Financial Results HY Back-up 28

29 GfK Group single Q2 In m Actual Acquisitions Q Q2 Actual Actual Single Q2 Total Organic FX effect Q Consumer Choices Consumer Experiences Sales Growth rate in % AOI Margin in % Q vs Q Q vs Q % -0.4% 0.2% 6.4% % -2.3pts % -0.8% 0.0% 6.7% % 0.1pts Other Group % -0.7% 0.1% 6.6% % -1.0pts Both sectors contributed to organic sales decline of -0.7% Foreign exchange rate contributed positively to overall growth of 6.0% Overall margin decline of -1.0pts driven by sector Consumer Choices Rounding differences possible 29