BBK34133 Investment Analysis Prepared by Dr Khairul Anuar. L7 Portfolio and Risk Management

Transcription

1 BBK34133 Investment Analysis Prepared by Dr Khairul Anuar L7 Portfolio and Risk Management

2 Portfolios A portfolio is a bundle or a combination of individual assets or securities. The portfolio theory provides a normative approach to investors to make decisions to invest their wealth in assets or securities under risk. It is based on the assumption that investors are riskaverse. The second assumption of the portfolio theory is that the returns of assets are normally distributed. 2

3 Portfolios An asset s risk and return are important in how they affect the risk and return of the portfolio The risk-return trade-off for a portfolio is measured by the portfolio expected return and standard deviation, just as with individual assets 3

4 Example: Portfolio Weights Suppose you have $15,000 to invest and you have purchased securities in the following amounts. What are your portfolio weights in each security? $2000 of DCLK $3000 of KO $4000 of INTC $6000 of KEI DCLK: 2/15 =.133 KO: 3/15 =.2 INTC: 4/15 =.267 KEI: 6/15 =.4 DCLK Doubleclick KO Coca-Cola INTC Intel KEI Keithley Industries The sum of the weights = 1 4

5 Example: Expected Portfolio Returns Consider the portfolio weights computed previously. If the individual stocks have the following expected returns, what is the expected return for the portfolio? DCLK: 19.69% KO: 5.25% INTC: 16.65% KEI: 18.24% E(R P ) =.133(19.69) +.2(5.25) +.167(16.65) +.4(18.24) = 13.75% 5

6 Risk Diversification: Systematic and Unsystematic Risk Risk has two parts: Systematic risk Unsystematic risk Total risk = Systematic risk + Unsystematic risk 6

7 Risk Diversification: Systematic and Unsystematic Risk Systematic risk arises on account of the economy-wide uncertainties and the tendency of individual securities to move together with changes in the market. This part of risk cannot be reduced through diversification. It is also known as market risk. Includes such things as changes in GDP, inflation, interest rates, etc.) Unsystematic risk arises from the unique uncertainties of individual securities. It is also called unique risk. Unsystematic risk can be totally reduced through diversification. Also known as unique risk and asset-specific risk Includes such things as labor strikes, part shortages, etc. 7

8 Portfolio Diversification Portfolio diversification is the investment in several different asset classes or sectors Diversification is not just holding a lot of assets For example, if you own 50 internet stocks, you are not diversified However, if you own 50 stocks that span 20 different industries, then you are diversified 8

9 The Principle of Diversification Diversification can substantially reduce the variability of returns without an equivalent reduction in expected returns This reduction in risk arises because worse than expected returns from one asset are offset by better than expected returns from another However, there is a minimum level of risk that cannot be diversified away and that is the systematic portion 9

10 Diversification and risk 10

11 Diversifiable Risk The risk that can be eliminated by combining assets into a portfolio Often considered the same as unsystematic, unique or assetspecific risk If we hold only one asset, or assets in the same industry, then we are exposing ourselves to risk that we could diversify away 11

12 Systematic Risk Principle There is a reward for bearing risk There is not a reward for bearing risk unnecessarily The expected return on a risky asset depends only on that asset s systematic risk since unsystematic risk can be diversified away 12

13 The Investment Process Five steps: Set investment policy Perform security analysis Construct a portfolio Revise the portfolio Evaluate performance 13

14 STEP 1: Investment Policy Identify investor s unique objective Determine amount of investable wealth State objectives in terms of risk and return Identify potential investment categories 14

15 Step 2: Security Analysis Using potential investment categories, find mispriced securities Using fundamental analysis Intrinsic value should equal discounted present value Compare current market price to true market value Identify undervalued securities 15

16 Step 3: Construct a Portfolio Identify specific assets and proportion of wealth in which to invest Address issues of Selectivity Timing Diversification 16

17 Step 4: Portfolio Revision Periodically repeat step 3 Revise if necessary Increase/decrease existing securities Delete some securities Add new securities 17

18 Step 5: Portfolio Performance Evaluation Involves periodic determination of portfolio performance with respect to risk and return Requires appropriate measures of risk and return 18