Keep Calm and Stay Invested: ifast India Market Outlook Global Indices for 2017

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2 Keep Calm and Stay Invested: ifast India Market Outlook 2018 Author: ifast Research Team January 24, 2018 The bulls on Dalal Street had a proverbial windfall in 2017 with the Indian market being one of the best performing global markets after China and South Korea (Source: ifast Platform). We feel investor enthusiasm showed continued faith in the economic reforms being unleashed in India, despite the expected short term blips in growth. The barely checked northward movement of the market defied expectations, as well as any attempts by traders to time the markets. Global Indices for % 30% 30.09% 28.47% 27.91% 26.79% 25% 20% 15% 20.11% 19.72% 17.95% 17.51% 15.91% 15.29% 13.58% 12.31% 12.17% 10% 8.84% 5% 0% China (HS Mainland 100) South Korea (KOSPI) India (SENSEX) Hong Kong (HSI) Singapore (STI) Brazil (IBOV) Taiwan (Taiwan Weighted) Thailand (SET Index) Japan (Nikkei 225) Europe (Stoxx 600) Malaysia (KLCI) Indonesia (JCI) USA (S&P 500) Australia (S&P/ASX 200) Source: Bloomberg, ifast Compilations Page 1 of 19

3 The year 2016 ended with the bellwether Sensex closing at 26,626 levels. The index touched an all time high of 34,057 on December 29, 2017, registering a growth of 27.91%. Domestic indices like the SmallCap Index and the MidCap Index were on fire and delivered 59.64% and 48.13% during the year. Valuations went overboard and investors became jittery about the expensive nature of Indian markets. Domestic Indices for % 48.13% 59.64% 40.00% 27.91% 28.65% 20.00% 0.00% Sensex Nifty 50 MID CAP SMALL CAP Source: Bloomberg, ifast Compilations Sectoral Indices for % 100% % % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Realty Consumer Durables 47.78% Metal 40.03% 39.08% Capital Goods Bankex 34.00% 32.06% 31.54% Oil & Gas Auto FMCG 19.83% 16.55% Power TECK 10.83% IT 0.49% Healthcare Source: Bloomberg, ifast Compilations Page 2 of 19

4 The leading question asked by investors through the year was, Is India still an attractive investment opportunity? At the time of releasing our market outlook for 2017 titled India Strategy 2017: Favourable Tailwinds Continue for a Substantial Growth Rate in March, the country and global investors were waiting with bated breath for the outcome of the election in Uttar Pradesh (UP), the largest Indian state. The results were expected to be a barometer of the central government s strength in the parliament and thus an indicator for the continuation of economic reforms. Our outlook, however, had concluded that: regardless of the outcome of the election, the central government will manage to implement its most crucial reforms. The passage of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) Bill and surviving the demonetization drive implies that the government will continue to enjoy stable support of the country. However, India is definitely not going to be insulated from the uncertainties that are going to be caused by rising oil prices, FED rate hikes, strengthening of economies like US and China, and FII outflows. All these uncertainties will make the market volatile in the short term and will likely stress investors and their portfolios. The long term story stays intact, though, as we believe that the earnings of India Inc. will improve, which in turn, will see the economy growing at more than 7%. Despite chill winds blowing from within and outside the country, however, the market refused to lose steam through the year as our domestic investors went on a shopping spree. FIIs remained cautious with valuations moving up without improvement in the earnings cycle of India Inc. A big factor in these unprecedented flows was the increased penetration of mutual funds in the country. The whole of India was singing Mutual Funds Sahi Hai, and we even had investors share stories of school children prodding their parents to start investing in mutual funds so that they could go for annual vacations or higher education. Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs) became the norm for our investors as they moved surplus funds away from traditional investment options like fixed deposits (FDs), real estate and even gold. The sharply escalating flows into mutual funds (the average monthly SIP inflows were INR 4,957 crore in 2017) led to a few of our recommended funds in the mid and small cap categories being closed for transactions. While the equity market was euphoric, the bond market wore a gloomy look and was under stress. We saw the 10 year yield on government securities (G-Sec), considered to be the best barometer for the bond market, move from 6.52% on December 30, 2016 to 7.33% as on December 29, Investors wondered whether it would have been better to stick with Fixed Deposits or even try their luck in stocks. The truth is, however, that a conservative investor with no appetite for the volatilities of the equity market would have had a very anxious 2017, despite appearances. This is why we never recommend selecting investments based on market performance and timing. Investments, be it equity or debt, should only depend on goals, investment horizon and risk appetite. Page 3 of 19

5 10 Year G-Sec Yield for Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Source: Bloomberg, ifast Compilations Market Drivers 2017: Macroeconomic, Political and Social Let s take a quick look at the reasons behind the outperformance and underperformance of the two markets in 2017 before we frame our outlook for the new year. Page 4 of 19

6 Equity Market The year started on a good note with the Union Budget, presented on February 1 maintaining status quo on Long Term Capital Gains Tax on equities, which was one of the biggest worries of market participants. Dalal Street partied hard in March when BJP won the majority in Uttar Pradesh, the largest state in India. The implementation of Goods and Services Tax (GST), the biggest tax reform of India, on the stipulated date - July 1 - added confidence in government execution. Throughout 2017, we saw a very proactive RBI and the Government of India (GOI) working together to solve India s Twin Balance Sheet Problem, a term used to describe the situation wherein both banks and corporates are under stress. While the RBI went out of its way to clean up the Indian banking system by implementing the Banking Regulation (Amendment) Ordinance 2017, GOI decided to support the banks with a huge recapitalization package amounting to INR 2.11 lakh crore. The excitement on Dalal Street continued with India s position in the World Bank s Ease of Doing Business index improving from 130 to 100, and Moody s decision to upgrade India s Government Bond rating from Baa3 to Baa2, changing the outlook from positive to stable. If the Uttar Pradesh election stressed investors in March, then all eyes were on the Gujarat election towards the end of the year. The ruling party s win in Modi s home turf added to the positive vibes among market participants as every victory for the ruling party means lesser resistance from the opposition in the Upper House of Parliament to reform measures. There were some rough patches during the year as well: the RBI changing its monetary policy stance from accommodative to neutral, inflation moving above the 4% target set by RBI, soaring oil prices, worries on the possibility of GOI missing the fiscal deficit target of FY18 and the slowing growth momentum of the economy. In addition to this, tensions along the Indian borders, the geo-political tensions between US and North Korea and the decision of the US FED to raise rates and shrink the size of the balance sheet also kept the markets on tenterhooks for some time. Debt Market The performance of the debt market was disappointing throughout After the budget for was presented, the bond market applauded the government s resolve to maintain fiscal discipline and increase public expenditure while reducing net market borrowing. This was short lived, however, as the central bank went on to change the monetary policy stance from accommodative to neutral in the Sixth Bi-Monthly Monetary Policy Review held in February, citing upside risks to inflation. Throughout the rest of the year, the tone in RBI s policy review documents remained hawkish as it continued to have concerns about inflation and the GOI missing the fiscal deficit target of FY18. The fears seemed well founded as inflation moved from a 6-year low of 1.56% in June, to 5.21% in December, while the GOI decided to go ahead and borrow an additional INR 50,000 crore for FY18. (On January 17, 2018, GOI announced that it would now only borrow INR 20,000 crore instead of INR 50,000 crore.) Page 5 of 19

7 Mint street also sent out some mixed signals after changing the monetary policy stance to neutral. In the First Bi-Monthly Monetary Policy Review held in the first week of April, RBI maintained status quo on rates, while the minutes of the meeting released later in the month showed that a member had actually suggested a 25 bps increase in policy rates to achieve the inflation target of 4%. In the Third Bi-Monthly Monetary Policy Review held in August, RBI then went onto reduce the policy rate by 25 bps, continuing to maintain a neutral stance. The reason given for this reduction was that the upside risks to inflation had either reduced or not materialized, while the tone in the document continued to remain hawkish. The implementation of Farm Loan Waivers, states implementation of the Salary and Allowances award, as well as rising international oil prices also made the central bankers restless. RBI was also very proactive in raising their voice about the deteriorating investment climate in the country. In the Fourth Bi-Monthly Monetary Policy Review held in October, RBI went onto state The MPC reiterated that it is imperative to reinvigorate investment activity which, in turn, would revive the demand for bank credit by industry as existing capacities get utilised and the requirements of new capacity open up to be financed. Recapitalising public sector banks adequately will ensure that credit flows to the productive sectors are not impeded and growth impulses not restrained. When the recapitalization package was announced, it seemed like GOI had acted on RBI s advice and we saw the year ending with the RBI endorsing the recent reform measures, which are expected to have a positive impact on growth prospects in the near future. As we wrote in our note Is the Elephant finally slowing down? India Macroeconomic Review Q , The biggest positive that we see for the country is a united North Block and Mint Street working together to resolve one of the biggest issues that is slowing down the growth momentum of the economy: stressed assets of the banking system. Outlook 2018 As we write this note, the equity market is touching all time highs and any announcement by India s finance minister continues to lead to high spirits in the market. On the other hand, international oil prices are moving up, inflation is showing a tendency to move up, and GOI is expected to increase public expenditure all of this is going to cause some stress on the fiscal front. The tone from Mint Street indicates that interest rates could move up further from here. The currency has started showing volatility and the irony is that the market refuses to shy away from touching new peaks. Our Fund Managers are treading cautiously and advising investors to moderate their return expectation for We highlight three parameters that our investors can use to make better sense of market movements in the coming months: valuation, inflows and global indicators. We follow that up with our specific recommendations for equity and debt investors. Page 6 of 19

8 Valuation The rise and rise of the Indian markets has made both, global and domestic investors worried about its expensive valuations. In May 2014, we had predicted that the P/E for would be 11.72X, while we actually ended the year with a P/E of 22X. On the other hand,the P/E as on December 29,2017 stood at 24X. The year defied all estimates and expectations, with the surge in domestic investor flows working as the X factor that our prediction models had not accounted for. Going forward, from a valuation and earnings point of view, the revival of India s credit growth and economic growth are vital concerns. In the article, Is the Elephant finally slowing down? India Macroeconomic Review Q , we had written that A growing economy like India should see its credit growth soaring, which is very essential to maintain the growth momentum of the economy. We saw the non-food bank credit growth moving down from 20.7% in to 8.4% in , which has been a cause of concern for the policy makers in the country. The recent projects undertaken by GOI in infrastructure along with the huge recapitalization package for PSBs are steps in the right direction. In addition to this, the measures undertaken by RBI to clean up the banking system, like the enactment of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016 along with Asset Quality Review and Additional Disclosure Requirements should revive growth in these two crucial sectors. This revival is essential for the economy to grow faster than 8%. According to consensus estimates as on December 29, 2017, the estimated P/E ratios for India s stock market (Sensex) are 22.86X, 17.94X and 14.84X for FY18, FY19 and FY20 respectively. Estimated earnings growth is 13.30%, 27.44% and 20.89% for FY18, FY19 and FY20 respectively. Inflows Reform measures like demonetization and GST were meant to crack down the parallel economy and also create an efficient tax system that will not just boost revenues and investment but even the overall growth of the economy. However, we believe that the most immediate impact of these reforms has been the movement of savings from physical assets to financial assets, along with the formalization of the economy. This could also be cited as one of the reasons for the huge flows of investor surplus into equity markets during The markets thus saw unprecedented flows in and responded in kind. First time investors who have seen bumper returns in the last year should remember, however, that markets are cyclical, and a downturn is inevitable. We advise investors to stay away from churning their portfolios based on market movements. We expect the market to react to various reform measures undertaken by GOI in the different sectors; however, reading the nuances of what this means for specific stocks is a job best left to Fund Managers who will re-define their investment strategies depending upon the prevailing macro-economic environment. Page 7 of 19

9 We expect inflows in equities to continue in the coming year as well on account of the uncertainty in physical investment options like gold and real estate, and the moderate returns expected from traditional investments like small savings schemes, provident funds and bank FDs. We believe that this liquidity will bring stability to the market, buffering it to some degree against global movements. Mutual Funds Assets Under Management - Category Wise (INR in Crore) Category Dec 2017 Dec 2016 Change (%) INCOME 8,08,252 7,48, INFRASTRUCTURE DEBT 2,276 1, EQUITY 6,90,153 4,19, BALANCED 1,67,385 64, LIQUID 2,86,305 3,08, GILT 14,593 16, ELSS 80,981 50, GOLD ETF 4,855 5, OTHER ETFs 70,353 28, FOF OVERSEAS 1,512 1, TOTAL 2,126,665 1,646, Source: AMFI, ifast Compilations Page 8 of 19

10 MF Inflows via the SIP route (INR in Crore) Source: AMFI, ifast Compilations Global Indicators 2017 has proved to the world that if the world market sneezes India will not come down with flu anymore. However, as much as our domestic inflows will buffer the markets from changes in foreign fund flows, the changing global economic climate demands a change in the way we manage our investments as well. We have summarized our global desk s outlook on the global economy for 2018 here: With leading indicators across the world suggesting expansion and hard data catching up, we expect corporate earnings growth to strengthen in 2018, lending support to equity markets moving forward. As we head into 2018, we continue to hold our conviction on Asia ex-japan equities whilst believing that developed markets would still be necessary for portfolio diversification although we advocate going underweight on the region. Additionally, we have noticed that following strong returns for both stock and bond markets over the past few years, investors have gravitated towards passively-managed styles of investing and instruments such as index and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). However, with bond yields still at relatively low levels and equity markets valued richer moving into 2018, we think that actively-managed vehicles are appropriate, with active stock pickers able to underweight or shun expensive stocks for more attractively-valued ones, while an era of rising interest rates coupled with historically-low rates means credit selection, flexible positioning and currency expertise will aid in driving overall fixed income returns to a greater extent. Do not underestimate the value of active management! Page 9 of 19

11 We echo the view of our Global Desk on the relevance of continuing to include actively managed funds in Indian portfolios as well. A combination of actively managed funds and ETFs will be the way forward for Indian investors in the long term. Recommendations for 2018: Equity and Debt Our faith in equities as an apt investment opportunity for long term investors continues, and we would view any correction as an opportunity to enter the market. In 2011, when we recommended exposure into mid/small cap funds, the mid cap index was trading at a discount to large caps. As we write this note, mid/small cap valuations are peaking, but this category continues to find a place in our recommended portfolios as we believe that India is a stock picker s market. Mid/small cap funds use purely bottom up strategies to pick un-favoured stocks that show clear earnings visibility and the capability to become large caps in future. Instead of focusing on expensive valuations, ifast Research continues to recommend actively managed funds across the market capitalization spectrum, allowing investors to bet on fundamentally strong companies/sectors on the path to recovery. We also like funds whose focus themes are in line with those at North Block. Fixed income investors should not follow the temptation to increase their exposure into equities. If their investment goals and risk appetite warrant a larger component of fixed income, they should persevere with that. We are of the belief that the RBI will either maintain status quo or increase rates if oil prices or currency decide to play spoilsport in Investors across risk profiles can continue to take an exposure into ultra short term funds or short term funds, while our moderately aggressive and aggressive investors can explore dynamic bond funds. We would like to conclude the note with our usual recommendation: Stay calm while the markets go slant and the very same market will reward you for your patience. Page 10 of 19

12 Performance of our Recommended Funds in 2017 Category Recommended Funds for 2017 Benchmark Fund Performance Benchmark Performance ICICI PRUDENTIAL FOCUSED BLUECHIP EQUITY FUND Nifty % 28.65% ADITYA BIRLA SUN LIFE FRONTLINE EQUITY FUND % 33.26% Equity - Large cap RELIANCE TOP 200 FUND % 33.26% KOTAK 50 Nifty % 28.65% SBI BLUE CHIP FUND % 31.52% BNP PARIBAS EQUITY FUND Nifty % 28.65% MIRAE ASSET EMERGING BLUECHIP FUND Nifty Free Float Midcap % 47.26% CANARA ROBECO EMERGING EQUITIES Nifty Free Float Midcap % 47.26% Equity - Midcap & Small Cap Equity - Multi cap SBI MAGNUM MIDCAP FUND Nifty Midsmall 400 Index 33.49% N/A KOTAK EMERGING EQUITY S & P BSE Mid Small Cap Index 43.00% 54.62% FRANKLIN INDIA PRIMA FUND Nifty % 35.91% RELIANCE SMALL CAP FUND Small-Cap 62.97% 59.64% DSP BLACKROCK MICRO CAP FUND Small-Cap 42.77% 59.64% ADITYA BIRLA SUN LIFE ADVANTAGE FUND % 33.26% IDFC PREMIER EQUITY FUND % 35.94% KOTAK SELECT FOCUS FUND Nifty % 33.43% FRANKLIN INDIA HIGH GROWTH COMPANIES FUND Nifty % 35.91% SBI EMERGING BUSINESSES FUND % 35.94% ICICI PRUDENTIAL VALUE DISCOVERY FUND % 35.94% Equity - Contra & Value L&T INDIA VALUE FUND % 33.26% Equity - Dividend Yield TATA DIVIDEND YIELD FUND Nifty % 35.91% Page 11 of 19

13 Equity - ELSS Category Recommended Funds for 2017 Benchmark Fund Performance Benchmark Performance FRANKLIN INDIA TAXSHIELD Nifty % 35.91% AXIS LONG TERM EQUITY FUND % 33.26% ICICI PRUDENTIAL LONG TERM EQUITY FUND (TAX SAVING) Nifty % 35.91% RELIANCE TAX SAVER (ELSS) FUND % 31.52% TATA INDIA TAX SAVINGS FUND Sensex 46.00% 27.91% DSP BLACKROCK TAX SAVER FUND Nifty % 35.91% Equity - Global ICICI PRUDENTIAL GLOBAL STABLE EQUITY FUND MSCI World - Net Return Index 7.15% N/A FRANKLIN INDIA FEEDER - FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES FUND Russell 3000 growth Index 18.12% N/A Equity - Banking ICICI PRUDENTIAL BANKING & FINANCIAL SERVICES FUND Nifty Financial Service 45.05% 41.42% Equity - Pharmaceuticals SBI PHARMA FUND Healthcare 2.05% 0.49% Equity - Infrastructure CANARA ROBECO INFRASTRUCTURE % 31.52% KOTAK INFRASTRUCTURE & ECONOMIC REFORM FUND % 31.52% Equity - FMCG Fast Moving Consumer SBI FMCG FUND Goods 53.10% 31.54% Equity - Technology ICICI PRUDENTIAL TECHNOLOGY FUND Information Technology 19.80% 10.83% Source: NAV India, ifast Compilations Page 12 of 19

14 Category Fund Benchmark Recommended Funds for 2017 Benchmark Performance Performance KOTAK INCOME OPPORTUNITIES FUND Crisil Short-Term Bond Fund Index 6.56% 6.03% HDFC REGULAR SAVINGS FUND Crisil Short-Term Bond Fund Index 6.44% 6.03% Debt - Short Term ADITYA BIRLA SUN LIFE SHORT TERM OPPORTUNITIES FUND Crisil AA Short Term Bond Fund Index 5.60% N/A DSP BLACKROCK INCOME OPPORTUNITIES FUND 50% of CRISIL Short Term Bond Fund Index + 50% of CRISIL Composite Bond Fund Index 6.45% 5.36% ADITYA BIRLA SUN LIFE DYNAMIC BOND FUND Crisil Short-Term Bond Fund Index 2.16% 6.03% UTI DYNAMIC BOND FUND Crisil Composite Bond Fund Index 4.16% 4.69% Debt - Dynamic Bond Fund TATA DYNAMIC BOND FUND I-Sec Composite Index 3.90% N/A DSP BLACKROCK STRATEGIC BOND FUND Crisil Composite Bond Fund Index 1.84% 4.69% FRANKLIN INDIA INCOME BUILDER ACCOUNT Crisil Composite Bond Fund Index 7.67% 4.69% ICICI PRUDENTIAL LONG TERM PLAN Crisil Composite Bond Fund Index 5.10% 4.69% Debt - Income AXIS REGULAR SAVINGS FUND Crisil Composite Bond Fund Index 7.49% 4.69% TATA LONG TERM DEBT FUND Crisil Composite Bond Fund Index 4.05% 4.69% IDFC GOVERNMENT SECURITIES FUND-PROVIDENT FUND PLAN I-Sec Composite Index 3.85% N/A Debt - Gilt (Long Term) Debt - Corporate Bond Fund SBI MAGNUM GILT FUND - LONG TERM PLAN I-Sec Li-BEX 3.87% N/A SBI CORPORATE BOND FUND Crisil Composite Bond Fund Index 6.89% 4.69% Source: NAV India, ifast Compilations Page 13 of 19

15 Category Hybrid - Balanced Recommended Funds for 2017 ICICI PRUDENTIAL BALANCED FUND SBI MAGNUM BALANCED FUND TATA BALANCED FUND Benchmark Fund Performance Benchmark Performance CRISIL Balanced Fund - Aggressive Index 24.78% 19.82% CRISIL Balanced Fund - Aggressive Index 27.66% 19.82% CRISIL Balanced Fund - Aggressive Index 19.41% 19.82% BIRLA SUN LIFE MIP II - WEALTH 25 PLAN Crisil MIP Blended Index 15.52% 8.04% Hybrid - MIP ICICI PRUDENTIAL MIP 25 Crisil MIP Blended Index 12.92% 8.04% N/A - Data Not Available. Source: NAV India, ifast Compilations Page 14 of 19

16 Performance of our Recommended Portfolios in 2017 Portfolio Name Portfolio CAGR Since Inception (February 2010) Returns (November 30, 2016 to December 31, 2017) Portfolio Benchmark Conservative 9.12% 6.96% 10.01% Moderately Conservative 10.16% 12.89% 18.36% Balanced 11.61% 19.99% 23.38% Moderately Aggressive 14.48% 28.60% 26.72% Aggressive 15.99% 33.12% 29.12% Moderately Aggressive (Global) 12.98% 23.88% 15.83% Aggressive (Global) 13.74% 27.07% 16.23% We revamped our Recommended Portfolios on November 30, Page 15 of 19

17 Top & Bottom Performing Equity Funds in 2017 Source: NAV India, ifast Compilations Page 16 of 19

18 Top & Bottom Performing Debt & Hybrid Funds in 2017 Source: NAV India, ifast Compilations Page 17 of 19

19 Disclaimer ifast and/or its content and research team's licensed representatives may own or have positions in the mutual funds of any of the Asset Management Company mentioned or referred to in the article, and may from time to time add or dispose of, or be materially interested in any such. This article is not to be construed as an offer or solicitation for the subscription, purchase or sale of any mutual fund. No investment decision should be taken without first viewing a mutual fund's scheme information document including statement of additional information. Any advice herein is made on a general basis and does not take into account the specific investment objectives of the specific person or group of persons. Investors should seek for professional investment, tax, and legal advice before making an investment or any other decision. Past performance and any forecast is not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of the mutual fund. The value of mutual funds and the income from them may fall as well as rise. Opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Please read our disclaimer on the website. Page 18 of 19