Canada s Oil Sands. Webber Academy November Looking Forward Continuing Responsible Growth
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1 Canada s Oil Sands Webber Academy November 2013 Looking Forward Continuing Responsible Growth 2
2 Oil Sands by Subject 3 Global Primary Energy Demand 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 million tonnes oil equivalent Other Renewables Bioenergy Hydro Nuclear Natural Gas Oil Coal 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Ongoing reliance on fossil fuels (share of energy consumption): 2010: 81% 2035: 75% 0 Source: International Energy Agency New Policies Scenario World Energy Outlook Source: International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook
3 Oil Sands Source: Cenovus Oil Sands Resistance to flow 1,000,000 Room Temperature (cp 100,000 10,000 1, Water Light Crude Oil Olive Oil Pancake Syrup Honey Ketchup Cold Lake Bitumen Peanut Butter Athabasca Bitumen 0 Source: Imperial Oil
4 Global Crude Oil Reserves by Country billion barrels Includes 169 billion barrels of oil sands reserves World Oil Reserves 80 Restricted (81%) Open to Private Sector Open to Private Sector Oil Sands 56% Other 44% Venezuela Saudi Arabia Canada Iran Iraq Kuwait Abu Dhabi Russia Libya Nigeria Kazhakhstan China Qatar United States Source: Oil & Gas Journal Dec Canada s Oil Sands Resource 8
5 Natural exposure of the Oil Sands near Ft. McMurray Courtesy of R.G. Skinner Two Methods of Oil Sands Recovery Photo: ConocoPhillips - Surmont Drilling: 80% of reserves Mining: 20% of reserves 10 Schematic: Devon - Jackfish
6 Canadian Oil Sands (Bitumen and SCO) & Conventional Production 11 Light/Tight Oil Production Thousand b/d 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Jan-2005 Jul-2005 Jan-2006 Jul-2006 Jan ,000,000 b/d in 2 years Jul-2007 Jan-2008 Jul-2008 Jan-2009 Jul-2009 Jan-2010 Jul-2010 Jan-2011 Jul-2011 Jan-2012 Jul-2012 Eagle Ford (Texas) N. Dakota SK Light AB Light Sources: Eagle Ford : Railroad Commission of Texas N. Dakota: EIA SK: Government of SK AB: ERCB 12
7 U.S. Imports of Crude Oil and Petroleum Products by Country of Origin 3,000 #1 Petroleum Products Crude Oil 2,500 thousand barrels per da 2,000 1,500 1,000 Canada is the largest supplier of crude oil and of crude oil and petroleum products to the U.S Canada Saudi Arabia Mexico Venezuela Russia Iraq Nigeria Colombia Kuwait Algeria Source: EIA, Jan-Dec 2012 KXL is intended to meet U.S. needs especially for Gulf Coast Refineries Thousand barrels per day Venezuela Canada Mexico Jan-Nov Mexico s imports are decreasing due to the natural decline of its oil production Venezuela s imports are decreasing due to its political choice to focus on other markets such as China and Cuba Source: EIA
8 2012 Canada and U.S. Demand for Crude Oil by Source Thousand Barrels per Day 15 Access to Markets Pipeline Expansions in Development
9 WCSB Takeaway Capacity vs. Supply Forecast Crude Oil Rail Exports Western Canada vs. North Dakota Opportunities: Relatively quick Flexibility Less diluent Use in both directions Challenges: Recent safety Higher costs Limited loading and tank car availability Source: Peter s & Co. Limited = Sept
10 Changing Global Oil Import Needs 14 Net oil imports in the New Policies Scenario mmb/d China India European Union United States Japan Korea Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012, EIA 19 Canada s Proximity Advantage to Asian Markets Prince Rupert/Kitimat Persian Gulf Korea Japan China Japan Taiwan Taiwan 3,840 ~ 4,500 N Miles ~ 8,600 N Miles 1,400 N Miles Los Angeles Los Angeles 1,790 Jose/ Jose/ SantaCruz La Cruz La Cruz ~ 5,400 N Miles Far East Target Markets U.S West Coast Source: Enbridge Pipelines Competitive travel distances for Canadian supply to both markets
11 Environmental Performance 21 Environmental Performance Production GHG emissions Water quantity & quality Land/tailings reclamation Pipelines, Rail Integrity & operations Marine, Tankers Prevention, response and recovery tankers/ports Regulation and Monitoring Enhanced oil sands monitoring more sites, more transparency Up to $50M/yr paid by industry 22
12 Global GHG Emissions China 25% Global Emissions Canada s 2% USA 18% Other 26% Sources: 1. United Nations Statistics Division (2009 Data) 2. Environment Canada (2011 Data) European Union 12% Russian Federation 5% Japan 4% India 7% Canada 2% Australia/New Zealand 1% Emission Intensive & Trade Exposed Industries 11% Transportation 24% Buildings 12% Electricity 13% Agriculture 10% Other Oil & Gas 4% Waste & Others 7% GHG emissions from oil sands: 0.14% of global CO2 emissions 7.8% of Canada s GHG emissions 26% reduction in intensity from 1990 Oil Sands 7.8% Other Upstream 11% AK North American GHG Emissions (2011) for Coal-fired Power and Oil Sands OR MT ND MN Legend NV AZ UT mtonnes mtonnes 0-15 mtonnes WY NM CO SD NE KS OK TX IA MO AR LA WI IN IL TN AL MS MI KY OH GA WV SC FL VA NC NY NJ NH Canadian oil sands Canadian coal-fired power generating plants U.S. Coal fired power generating plants Sources: U.S. DOE/EIA & Environment Canada
13 The Oil Sands GHG Emissions Challenge Improving to at least the emissions of Similar Crudes U.S. Barrel Refined in the U.S. (2005) Venezuela - Petrozuata US -Kern River Cdn Oil Sands: Mining SCO Nigeria - Bonny Light Canadian Oil Sands: SAGD Dilbit Iraq-Basra Light Cdn Oil Sands: Low SOR SAGD Dilbit US - Mars +5% Venezuela Bachaquero Mexico - Maya Cdn Oil Sands: Mining Dilbit (PFT) Iraq - Kirkuk Blend US Barrel Refined in the U.S. (2005) Saudi Arabia - Arab Light Brazil - Tupi North Sea - Forties +2% Well-to-tank Refined product Combustion kgco 2 e per barrel of refined product Source: IHSCERA Oil Sands Dialogue Getting the Numbers Right Greenhouse Gas Emissions Carbon regulation Alberta Regulation Covers 100% of oil sands Mandatory 12% reduction $15 carbon price since July 2007 Federal Regulation Alignment with US (17% target and vehicle emissions standards) Coal sector done, moving ahead with oil sector regulation in 2013 Reducing GHG Emissions Using energy more efficiently Capturing CO2 Governments investing over $3 billion partners with industry Shell Quest CCS proceeding g co2 eq./mj Oil Sands GHG Emissions/bbl 26%
14 Less Energy, Less Water and Less Land Accelerating innovation environmental performance in the oil sands Canadian Oil Sands Innovation Alliance (COSIA) Reduce water and energy Cogeneration steam and electric power Solvent/steam injection Alternative well configurations for SAGD Electro-thermal technology Water reduction and recycle Use of saline (non-fresh) water for steam Faster waste water recycle Water technology development centre Land reclamation Faster Forests 600,000 seedlings in 2011 Winter wetland planting Ceramic membranes for water treatment Faster Forests 27 Jobs and Economic Benefits
15 World vs. Canadian Oil Prices US$/bbl World Edm Light Cdn Heavy M M J S N 2011 M M J S N 2012 M M J S N 2013 M M J S 29 Oil Sands Supply Costs Project Type Project Size (bbl/d) Capital Cost Range $MM Estimated Supply Costs $US WTI/bbl In Situ SAGD 30,000 $750 1,500 $50 - $78 Standalone mine 100,000 $5,500 7,500 $70 - $91 30 Source: ERCB ST
16 The Oil and Natural Gas Industry A Key Driving Force in the Canadian Economy Industry will invest $67 billion in Canada in 2013 Largest single private sector investor in Canada Payments to governments average about $18 billion per year Oil and gas accounts for 20% of value on Toronto Stock Exchange Oil and Gas accounts for close to 18% of exports Industry employs more than 550,000 in Canada (direct & indirect). Upstream Oil & Gas Auto Manufacturing Forestry & Logging Wheat & Barley Uranium 31 Industry Capital Spending Cdn $billions Northern Canada E 2014F $0.1 $0.5 $0.7 Oil & Gas Investment Spending: 2012: $67 billion 2013: $67 billion (estimate) 2014: $68 (forecast) Oil Sands E 2014F $27 $25 $25 Western Canada E 2014F $37 $39 $39 East Coast Offshore E 2014F $2.4 $3.0 $3.5 Note: Excludes spending on mergers & acquisitions 32
17 Suppliers across Canada 2400 American companies provide goods and services directly to the oil sands 34 34
18 What s in it for us? Aboriginal Participation in Oil Sands Development Aboriginal Companies: value of contracts in 2010 = $1.3 Billion value of contracts = $5 Billion Aboriginal Employees in permanent jobs in 2010 = 1,700+ Contributions to Aboriginal communities in 2010 = $5.5 Million Aboriginal/Metis/non status consultation funding 2010 = $12.3 Million Source: OSDG May 2011
19 Improving Environmental Performance Generating Economic Benefits Being Part of the
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