All data in the edition are the last available data as of July 2016

Transcription

1 All data in the edition are the last available data as of July 2016 The quoted data set in this report are the last available data, published in the official source s web sites. The sources are Ministry of Finance, Bulgarian National Bank, National Statistic Institute, National Employment Agency, Bulgarian Industrial Association The electronic system used for collecting the data from the official sources is CEIC Data Manager. United Bulgarian bank Chief Economist Department 5 Sveta Sofia str., Sofia 1040 CHIEF ANALYST HRISTO DIMITROV DIMITROV_HR@UBB.BG BULGARIA: ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS Monthly report as of July 2016 The current and capital account recorded a surplus of EUR million in May 2016, compared with a positive balance of EUR 71.1 million in May 2015 In the period January - May 2016 Bulgarian exports to third countries decreased by 15.4% in comparison with the same period of 2015 and amounted to million BGN Gross external debt amounted to EUR 35,252.9 million (76.1% of GDP) at end-may 2016 According to BNB data in June 2016 Bulgaria's foreign reserves amounted to BGN 43.9 billion (EUR 22.4 billion) and rose by 3.2% m/m and by 16.7% y/y, respectively Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded with 2.9% in the first quarter of 2016 compared to the same quarter of the previous year According to the preliminary data the Industrial Production Index, seasonally adjusted, decreased by 2.0% in May 2016 as compared to April 2016 In May 2016 the working day adjusted turnover in Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles increased by 3.9% in comparison with the same month of the previous year In May 2016 working day adjusted data showed a decrease by 8.1% in the construction production, compared to the same month of 2015 In May 2016, the number of the trips of Bulgarian residents abroad was 564,8 thousand or by 16,8% above the registered in May 2015 In July 2016 the total business climate indicator decreases by 0.9 percentage points compared to previous month Total Producer Price Index in Industry in May 2016 increased by 0.2% compared to the previous month The consumer price index in June 2016 compared to May 2016 was 99.9%, i.e. the monthly inflation was -0.1% In June, the unemployment rate continues to decline to 8.4% The Consolidated Fiscal Programme (CFP) balance on a cash basis as of end-june 2016 is positive, amounting to BGN 3,071.2 million According to the official register kept by the Ministry of Finance, the central government debt as at end-june 2016 stands at EUR 13,363.0 million In June 2016 broad money (monetary aggregate M3) increased annually by 8.9% compared to 8.1% annual growth in May 2016 SOFIX reached record levels for 2016, marking a new high of for the year In the second quarter of 2016 the main financial indicators of the banking system remained at levels ensuring stability and growth of banking business Source: Bulgaria: Key Macroeconomic Indicators 2013 (а) 2014 (а) 2015 (а) 2016 (p) 2017 (p) 2018 (p) 2019 (р) Gross Domestic Product GDP (BGN million) GDP (EUR million) GDP (real growth, %) Consumption Gross capital formation Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Labour market and prices Employment (%) Unemployment rate (%) Compensation of one empoyeed (%) GDP Defflator (%) Average inflation (%) Balance of payments Current account (% of GDP) Trade balance (% of GDP) FDI (% of GDP) Monetary sector М3 (% y/y growth ) Loans to companies (% y/y growth) Loans to households (% y/y growth) Sourcse: MF 2016 Spring Projection

2 2 I. EXTERNAL SECTOR 1. Balance of payments The current and capital account recorded a surplus of EUR million in May 2016, compared with a positive balance of EUR 71.1 million in May 2015 The current and capital account recorded a surplus of EUR million in May 2016, compared with a positive balance of EUR 71.1 million in May In January May 2016 the current and capital account was positive amounting to EUR million (1.9% of GDP), compared with a surplus of EUR million (1.1% of GDP) in January May The current account was positive amounting to EUR 36.5 million in May 2016, compared with a surplus of EUR 16.6 million in May In January May 2016 the current account was positive and amounted to EUR million (0.6% of GDP), compared with a deficit of EUR million (0.4% of GDP) in January May The balance on goods recorded a deficit of EUR million in May 2016, compared with a deficit of EUR 125 million in May In January May 2016 the balance on goods was negative amounting to EUR million (1.1% of GDP), compared with a deficit of EUR million (1.9% of GDP) in January May Exports of goods amounted to EUR 1,814.3 million in May 2016, dropping by EUR 12.7 million (0.7%) from May 2015 (EUR 1,827 million). In January May 2016 exports of goods totalled EUR 8,716.9 million, decreasing by EUR million yearon-year (from EUR 8,960.5 million). In January May 2015 exports grew by 12.4% year-onyear. Imports of goods amounted to EUR 1,991.9 million in May 2016, growing by EUR 39.8 million (2%) from May 2015 (EUR 1,952.1 million). In January May 2016 imports of goods totalled EUR 9,216.3 million, dropping by EUR million (5.8%) from January May 2015 (EUR 9,782 million). In January May 2015 imports grew by 4.5% year-on-year. Services recorded a positive balance of EUR million in May 2016, compared with a surplus of EUR million in May In January May 2016 services recorded a surplus of EUR million (0.9% of GDP) compared with a positive balance of EUR million (1% of GDP) in the same period of The net primary Income (which reflects the receipt and payment of income related to the use of resources (labor, capital, land), taxes of production and imports and subsidies) recorded a deficit of EUR 1.6 million in May 2016, compared with a deficit of EUR million in May In January May 2016 the balance on primary income was negative and equated to EUR million (0.6% of GDP), against a deficit of EUR 849 million (1.9% of GDP) in January May 2015.The net secondary income (which reflects the redistribution of income) recorded a surplus of EUR million, compared with a surplus of EUR million in May In January May 2016 the net secondary income was positive amounting to EUR million (1.4% of GDP), compared with a positive balance of EUR 1,044.9 million (2.4% of GDP) in the same period of The capital account recorded a surplus of EUR 86.2 million, compared with a positive balance of EUR 54.5 million in May In January May 2016 the capital account recorded a surplus of EUR million (1.3% of GDP), compared with a positive balance of EUR million (1.5% of GDP) in January May The financial account recorded a net inflow of EUR million, compared with a positive balance of EUR million in May In January May 2016 the financial account recorded a net inflow of EUR million (2% of GDP) compared with an inflow of EUR 1,360 million (3.1% of GDP) in January May The net direct investment compiled in accordance with the Sixth Edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual was negative amounting to EUR 75.4 million, compared with a negative balance of EUR 3.8 million in May In January May 2016 the balance was negative and equated to EUR million (1% of GDP), compared with a negative balance of EUR million (1.8% of GDP) million in January May Direct investment - assets decreased by EUR 7.9 million compared with an increase of EUR 91.3 million in May In January May 2016 direct investment - assets rose by EUR 99.7 million, compared with a decrease of EUR million in the same period of Direct investment liabilities recorded a net increase of EUR 67.5 million in May 2016, compared with an increase of EUR 95.1 million in May In January May 2016 direct investment liabilities grew by EUR million, compared with an increase of EUR million in the same period of The balance on portfolio investment was positive amounting to EUR 72.6 million, compared with a negative balance of EUR million in May In January May 2016 the balance was negative and equated to EUR 1,060.9 million (2.3% of GDP), compared with a negative balance of EUR 1,689.6 million (3.8% of GDP) million in January May Portfolio investment assets increased by EUR 35.7 million, compared with a decline of EUR million in May In January May 2016 they grew by EUR 1.4 million compared with a decrease of EUR million in January May Portfolio investment liabilities declined by EUR 36.9 million compared with a decrease of EUR 37.6 million in May In January May 2016 portfolio investment - liabilities grew by EUR 1,062.3 million, compared with an increase of EUR 1,032.9 million in January May The balance on other investment was positive amounting to EUR 175 million, compared with a positive balance of EUR million in May In January May 2016 the balance was positive and equated to EUR 1,195.7 million (2.6% of GDP), compared with a positive balance of EUR 1,195.8 million (2.7% of GDP) in January May Other investment assets increased by EUR million, compared with an increase of EUR 27.1 million in May In January May 2016 they rose by EUR 1,281.7 million compared with a decrease of EUR 1,343.1 million in January May Other investment liabilities decreased by EUR 2.2 million compared with a decrease of EUR 868 million in May In January May 2016 they grew by EUR 85.9 million compared with a decline of EUR 2,538.9 million in January May The BNB reserve assets grew by EUR million, compared with a decline of EUR 39.6 million in May In January May 2016 they rose by EUR 1,289.9 million (2.8% of GDP), compared with an increase of EUR 2,652.1 million (6% of GDP) in the same period of The net errors and omissions were positive amounting to EUR million compared with a positive value of EUR million in May According to preliminary data, the item was positive in January May 2016 and totalled EUR 13.7 million (0.03% of GDP), against a positive value of EUR million (2% of GDP) in the same period of 2015.

3 3 2. Foreign Trade In the period January - May 2016 Bulgarian exports to third countries decreased by 15.4% in comparison with the same period of 2015 and amounted to million BGN In the period January - May 2016 Bulgarian exports to third countries decreased by 15.4% in comparison with the same period of 2015 and amounted to million BGN. Main trade partners of Bulgaria were Turkey, China, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Serbia, USA and Russian Federation, which accounted for 50.7% of the exports to non- EU countries. In May 2016 Bulgarian exports to third countries dropped by 21.3% compared to the corresponding month of the previous year and added up to million BGN. Bulgarian imports from third countries in the period January - May 2016 decreased by 17.4% in comparison with the same period of 2015 and added up to million BGN (at CIF prices). The largest amounts were reported for the goods imported from the Russian Federation, Turkey, China and Ukraine. In May 2016 Bulgarian imports from third countries dropped by 9.4% compared to the corresponding month of the previous year and amounted to million BGN. The foreign trade balance of Bulgaria (export FOB - import CIF) with third countries in the period January - May 2016 was negative and added up to Million BGN. The trade balance at FOB/FOB prices (after elimination of transport and insurance costs on imports) was also negative and amounted to million BGN. In May 2016 the foreign trade balance of Bulgaria (export FOB - import CIF) with third countries was negative and added up to million BGN. In the period January - May 2016 the value of all exported goods from Bulgaria amounted to million BGN and in comparison with the corresponding period of 2015 the exports decreased by 3.5%. In May 2016 the total exports added up to million BGN or by 5.4% less than the same month of the previous year. The total value of all the goods imported in the country in the period January - May 2016 amounted to million BGN (at CIF prices), or by 7.0% less than the corresponding period of In May 2016 the total imports decreased by 3.2% compared to the same month of the previous year and added up to million BGN. 3. External debt Gross external debt amounted to EUR 35,252.9 million (76.1% of GDP) at end-may 2016 Gross external debt amounted to EUR 35,252.9 million (76.1% of GDP) at end-may 2016, increasing by EUR 1,161.9 million (3.4%) from end-2015 (EUR 34,090.9 million, 77.2% of GDP). On a year-on-year basis gross external debt dropped by EUR million (1.3%) from May 2015 (EUR 35,702.7 million, 80.8% of GDP). Long-term liabilities totalled EUR 27,695.3 million (78.6% of the total debt, 59.8% of GDP) at end-may 2016, growing by EUR 1,486.9 million (5.7%) from end-2015 (EUR 26,208.4 million, 76.9% of the total debt, 59.3% of GDP). On a year-on-year basis, long-term liabilities declined by EUR million (0.8%) from May 2015 (EUR 27,924.4 million, 63.2% of GDP). Short-term liabilities equalled EUR 7,557.6 million (21.4% of the total debt, 16.3% of GDP), decreasing by EUR 325 million (4.1%) from end-2015 (EUR 7,882.6 million; 23.1% of the total debt, 17.8% of GDP). On a year-on-year basis, short-term liabilities dropped by EUR million (2.8%) from May 2015 (EUR 7,778.3 million, 17.6% of GDP). General government s gross external debt totalled EUR 6,670.9 million (14.4% of GDP) in end-may It rose by EUR 1,094.6 million (19.6%) from end-2015 (EUR 5,576.3 million, 12.6% of GDP), mostly due to the nonresident-held securities from Bulgaria s bond issues on international capital markets in March On a year-on-year basis general government s debt increased by EUR million (8.6%) from May 2015 (EUR 6,142.6 million, 13.9% of GDP). Banks external debt totalled EUR 3,875.9 million (8.4% of GDP). It fell by EUR million (6.1%) from end-2015 (EUR 4,126.4 million, 9.3% of GDP). On a year-on-year basis banks debt decreased by EUR million (4.7%), from EUR 4,066.3 million, 9.2% of GDP in May Other Sectors external debt4 equalled EUR 11,917.5 million (25.7% of GDP). It grew by EUR million (1.5%) from end-2015 (EUR 11,735.9 million, 26.6% of GDP). On a year-on-year basis it grew by EUR 57.2 million (0.5%) from May 2015 (EUR 11,860.3 million, 26.9% of GDP). The stock of intercompany lending amounted to EUR 12,788.5 million (27.6% of GDP) at end-may 2016, growing by EUR million (1.1%) from end-2015 (EUR 12,652.4 million, 28.7% of GDP). On a year-on-year basis it declined by EUR 845 million (6.2%) from May 2015 (EUR 13,633.5 million, 30.9% of GDP). The external financing received from non-residents equalled EUR 3,168.8 million (6.8% of GDP) in January May 2016, compared with EUR 3,267.2 million (7.4% of GDP) in January May They were distributed as follows: general government received EUR 1,362.8 million (43% of the total amount of disbursements), banks received EUR million (15.8%), other sectors received EUR million (26.1%), and intercompany lending totalled EUR million (15.1%). Gross external debt service totalled EUR 1,705.4 million (3.7% of GDP) in January May 2016, compared with EUR 5,196.7 million (11.8% of GDP) in January May Net external debt totalled EUR 5,269.3 million at end-may It dropped by EUR 1,589.8 million (23.2%) from end-2015 (EUR 6,859.1 million). Its decline was due to the larger increase in gross external assets (by EUR 2,751.7 million, 10.1%) in comparison with the increase in gross external debt (by EUR 1,161.9 million, 3.4%). As a percentage of GDP, net external debt equated to 11.4%, from 15.4% at end-2015.

4 4 4. Foreign reserves According to BNB data in June 2016 Bulgaria's foreign reserves amounted to BGN 43.9 billion (EUR 22.4 billion) and rose by 3.2% m/m and by 16.7% y/y, respectively According to BNB data in June 2016 Bulgaria's foreign reserves amounted to BGN 43.9 billion (EUR 22.4 billion) and rose by 3.2% m/m and by 16.7% y/y, respectively. At the end of June 2016 the cash within BNB grew up by 5.5% m/m and by 19.8% y/y, respectively. Investments in monetary gold amounted to BGN2 998 billion and increased by 8.9% on a monthly basis and by 12.8% y/y. For the same period the money in circulation increased by 1.8% in monthly terms and by 12.7% y/y to BGN12.7 billion. Liabilities to banks maintain its level from the previous month and reported a growth of 14.2% y/ y to BGN 11.8 billion. Liabilities to government and other budget organizations amounted to BGN12.2 billion and rose by 6.5% m/m and by 23% y/y, respectively. Bulgaria s international liquidity position of calculated as the ratio of short-term external debt to international reserves improved to 285.5% in April 2016 compared to 256.6% in December 2015 and 230.5% in April II. REAL SECTOR 1.GDP Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded with 2.9% in the first quarter of 2016 compared to the same quarter of the previous year Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded with 2.9% in the first quarter of 2016 compared to the same quarter of the previous year and with 0.7% compared to the fourth quarter of 2015 according to the seasonally adjusted data. According to the flash GDP estimates for the first quarter of 2016, the GDP at current prices amounted to BGN million. GVA in the first quarter of 2016 amounted to BGN million. In the structure of GDP by the expenditure approach the largest share has the final consumption (85.2%), which in nominal terms amounted to BGN million. In the first quarter of 2016 gross capital formation is BGN million and has a share of 15.8% in GDP. The external balance (exports minus imports) has a negative sign. According to the seasonally adjusted data, the GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2016 is 0.7% compared to the previous quarter. Gross value added increased in the first quarter of 2016 by 0.9%. According to the flash estimates by final expenditure the GDP growth in the first quarter of 2016 is determined by increase in final consumption with 0.5%. 2. Industrial production According to the preliminary data the Industrial Production Index, seasonally adjusted, decreased by 2.0% in May 2016 as compared to April 2016 According to the preliminary data the Industrial Production Index, seasonally adjusted, decreased by 2.0% in May 2016 as compared to April In May 2016 working day adjusted Industrial Production Index fell by 3.3% in comparison with the same month of In May 2016 as compared to April 2016, the seasonally adjusted Industrial Production Index decreased in the manufacturing by 3.5% and in the mining and quarrying industry by 1.1%, while in the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply an increase by 3.1% was seen. On annual basis in May 2016 Industrial Production Index calculated from working day adjusted data decreased in the mining and quarrying industry by 4.2%, in the manufacturing by 3.7% and in the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply by 0.7%.

5 5 3. Retail sales In May 2016 the working day adjusted turnover in Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles increased by 3.9% in comparison with the same month of the previous year According to the preliminary seasonally adjusted data in May 2016 the turnover in Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles at constant prices increased by 0.2% compared to the previous month. In May 2016 the working day adjusted turnover in Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles increased by 3.9% in comparison with the same month of the previous year. In May 2016 compared to the previous month the turnover increased in the Retail sale via mail order houses or via Internet by 2.0%, in the Retail sale of computers, peripheral units and software; telecommunications equipment by 1.4%, in the Dispensing chemist; retail sale of medical and orthopaedic goods, cosmetic and toilet articles by 1.0% and in the Retail sale of audio and video equipment; hardware, paints and glass; electrical household appliances by 0.6%. In May 2016 compared to the same month of 2015 the turnover increased more significantly in the Retail sale via mail order houses or via Internet by 13.4%, in the Retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco by 9.3% and in the Retail sale of textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods by 7.4%. A decrease was registered in the Retail sale of computers, peripheral units and software; telecommunications equipment - 6.8% and in the Retail sale in non-specialised stores - 5.0%. 4. Construction In May 2016 working day adjusted data showed a decrease by 8.1% in the construction production, compared to the same month of 2015 According to the preliminary data, in May 2016 the index of production in section Construction calculated on the base of seasonally adjusted data kept the level of the previous month. In May 2016 working day adjusted data showed a decrease by 8.1% in the construction production, compared to the same month of In May 2016 the construction production, calculated from the seasonally adjusted data, kept the level of the previous month. Index of production of building construction increased by 0.6%, while the production of civil engineering marked a decrease by 0.6%. On an annual basis in May 2016, the decrease of production in construction, calculated from working day adjusted data, was determined mainly from the negative rate in the building construction, where the drop was by 8.2% and in the civil engineering - by 7.9%. 5. Tourism In May 2016, the number of the trips of Bulgarian residents abroad was 564,8 thousand or by 16,8% above the registered in May 2015 June 2016, the number of the trips of Bulgarian residents abroad was thousand or by 20.7% above the registered in June The trips with other purposes (as a guest, education and visit the cultural and sport events) in June 2016 composed the greatest share of the total number of trips of Bulgarian residents abroad %, followed by the trips with holiday and recreation purpose %, and with professional purpose %. In June 2016, the number of arrivals of visitors from abroad to Bulgaria was thousand or by 19.5% above the level of June An increase was registered in the trips with professional purpose - by 61.4%, and with holiday and recreation purpose - by 24.6%, while the trips with other purposes remained approximately the same level of the previous year.

6 6 6. Business climate In July 2016 the total business climate indicator decreases by 0.9 percentage points compared to previous month In July 2016 the total business climate indicator decreases by 0.9 percentage points compared to previous month. More unfavourable business climate is registered in service sector, while in industry and retail trade - remains approximately to its June level. Only in construction the business conjuncture is improved. The composite indicator business climate in industry preserves its June level. In industrial entrepreneurs opinion the present production activity is improved, but their expectations about the activity over the next 3 months are more unfavourable. In July the composite indicator business climate in construction increases by 1,3 percentage points as a result of the more favourable construction entrepreneurs assessments about the present business situation of the enterprises. The composite indicator business climate in retail trade remains approximately to its June level. The retailers opinions about the orders placed with suppliers over the next 3 months are improved. In July the composite indicator business climate in service sector decreases by 5,7 percentage points which is due to the shifting of the managers expectations about the business situation of the enterprises over the next 6 months from better towards preserving the same. 7. Producer price index Total Producer Price Index in Industry in May 2016 increased by 0.2% compared to the previous month Total Producer Price Index in Industry in June 2016 increased by 0.6% compared to the previous month. Higher prices were registered in the manufacturing by 1.0%, while the prices fell in the mining and quarrying industry by 2.5% and in the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply by 0.2%. Total Producer Price Index in June 2016 decreased by 4.5% compared to the same month of The prices fell in the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply by 5.4%, in the manufacturing by 4.3% and in the mining and quarrying industry by 4.2%. Producer Price Index on Domestic Market in June 2016 increased by 0.4% compared to the previous month. The domestic prices rose in the manufacturing by 0.7% and in the mining and quarrying industry by 0.1%, while in the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning the prices did not change. Producer Price Index on Domestic Market in June 2016 decreased by 4.2% compared to the same month of Producer Price Index on Non-domestic Market in June 2016 rose by 0.8% compared to the previous month. Producer Price Index on Non-domestic Market in June 2016 decreased by 5.0% compared to the same month of CPI Inflation The consumer price index in June 2016 compared to May 2016 was 99.9%, i.e. the monthly inflation was -0.1% The consumer price index in June 2016 compared to May 2016 was 99.9%, i.e. the monthly inflation was -0.1%. The inflation rate since the beginning of the year (June 2016 compared to December 2015) has been -1.1% and the annual inflation in June 2016 compared to June 2015 was -1.3%. The annual average inflation, measured by CPI, in the last 12 months (July June 2016) compared to the previous 12 months (July June 2015) was -0.8%.The harmonized index of consumer prices in June 2016 compared to May 2016 was 100.1%, i.e. the monthly inflation was 0.1%. The groups Transport and Restaurants and hotels had the biggest upward impact on the total HICP that measures the change in prices of goods and services, consumed by all households (including foreign households) on the economic territory of the country. The inflation rate since the beginning of the year (June 2016 compared to December 2015) has been -1.3% and the annual inflation in June 2016 compared to June 2015 was -1.9%. The price index of a small basket in June 2016 compared to May 2016 was 99.2% and the overall decrease since the beginning of the year (June 2016 compared to December 2015) has been 99.6%.

7 7 BULGARIA: ECONOMIC AND MARKET ANALYSIS, JUNE Unemployment In June, the unemployment rate continues to decline to 8.4% In June, the unemployment rate continues to decline to 8.4%. Compared to June 2015 the unemployment rate is significantly lower - by 1.2 percentage points. The decrease is by 0.3 percentage points compared to May 2016, the trend is typical for the summer season and it was maintains for the third consecutive month. To , at the labor offices registered 274,276 unemployed people. Compared to May they decreased by persons. On an annual basis, compared with June 2015, the unemployed are significantly less - by persons. A total of 22,535 unemployed persons started work in June 2016, of which in the primary market. In the labor offices were announced job vacancies in the primary market. Of these private sector announced 13,434 who are nearly 74% of all vacancies announced during the month. III. FISCAL SECTOR 1. Government budget The Consolidated Fiscal Programme (CFP) balance on a cash basis as of end-june 2016 is positive, amounting to BGN 3,071.2 million Based on the monthly data of first-level spending units, the Consolidated Fiscal Programme (CFP) balance on a cash basis as of end-june 2016 is positive, amounting to BGN 3,071.2 million, or 3.4% of the projected GDP, and is formed by a national budget surplus of BGN 1,665.3 million and a surplus of EU funds of BGN 1,405.9 million. This has been the most considerable excess of revenues over expenditures under the CFP for the first six months of the year since For comparison, a CFP surplus of BGN million (1.0% of GDP) was reported in the first six months of 2015, which means that, as a relative share of GDP, the budget stance has improved by 2.4 percentage points. The factors for the improvement in the budget stance continue to be the higher revenues and the cutting of expenditures in comparison to the same period of the previous year. In addition to the good national budget revenue parameters, the EU fund accounts also influence the current CFP balance, with the excess of revenues over expenditures there accounting for 1.6% of the projected GDP. The CFP revenues and grants in June 2016 stand at BGN 17,709.5 million, or at 53.6% of the annual estimates. Compared to the first half of 2015, revenues and grants have risen by BGN 1,405.9 million, or by 8.6%. The growth in comparison to the previous year is due to the higher tax and non-tax revenues which have grown by BGN 1,472.1 million, whereas grant proceeds (Commission refunds) have dropped by BGN 66.2 million. Nevertheless, the execution of grant proceeds as against the estimates is good, with domestic and foreign grant proceeds, mostly end-2015 certified expenditures reimbursed under the EU operational programmes and funds for the old programming period , and advance payments received by the Commission for the new programming period , amounting to BGN 1,932.4 million, which accounts for 76.0% of the annual estimates. The tax proceeds, including revenues from social security contributions, total BGN 13,488.9 million, which accounts for 51.9% of the revenues planned for the year. Compared to June 2015, tax proceeds have risen in nominal terms by 9.8%, or by BGN 1,202.8 million. In structural terms, the proceeds from indirect taxes report the most considerable growth. The direct tax revenues amount to BGN 2,538.9 million, or 54.2% of those planned in the 2016 State Budget of the Republic of Bulgaria Law, growing by BGN million, or by 7.4%, in comparison to the first half of Revenues from indirect taxes amount to BGN 6,834.6 million, which accounts for 51.5% of the 2016 State Budget of the Republic of Bulgaria Law estimates. Compared to the previous year, the proceeds in this group have grown by BGN million, or by 13.2%. The VAT proceeds in the first six months of the year amount to BGN 4,355.6 million, or 51.8% of those planned for the year. Compared to the previous year, the VAT revenues have risen by BGN million. The amount of the nonrefunded VAT as of end-june is BGN million. There is also a growth in the excise duty revenues which amount to BGN 2,380.6 million, or 51.0% of the annual estimates, while as against June 2015 they have grown by 18.6%, or by BGN million. The customs duty proceeds amount to BGN 83.6 million, or 55.7% of those planned for the year. Proceeds from other taxes, including property taxes and other taxes under the Corporate Income Tax Law, amount to BGN million, or 64.8% of the annual estimates. Revenues from social security and health insurance contributions are BGN 3,524.3 million, which accounts for 49.4% of the estimates for the year. Compared to the previous year, the revenues from social security contributions have risen by 5.1%, or by BGN million, in nominal terms. Non-tax revenues amount to BGN 2,288.2 million, which accounts for 51.1% of the annual estimates, and is by BGN million, or 13.3%, more than end-june The Consolidated Fiscal Programme expenditures, including the contribution of the Republic of Bulgaria to the EU budget for June 2016, amount to BGN 14,638.3 million, which accounts for 42.0% of the annual estimates. For comparison, the CFP expenditures as of June 2015 amount to BGN 15,414.0 million. The lower absorption of expenditures in the first six months of the year is mostly linked to a delay in some capital expenditures (mostly EU fund accounts), which is due, on the one hand, to the low absorption at the initial stage of project implementation during the new programming period , and, on the other hand, to the shifting of the majority of capital expenditures to the last quarter of the year due to some technological and procedural factors. Non-interest expenditures amount to BGN 13,879.7 million, which accounts for 42.6% of the annual estimates. Non-interest current expenditure as of June 2016 amount to BGN 13,012.7 million, or 49.1% of the annual estimates, capital expenditures (including net increment of state reserve) amount to BGN million, or 14.2% of the 2016 State Budget of the Republic Bulgaria Law estimates. Interest payments amount to BGN million, or 45.0% of those planned for The part of Bulgaria's contribution to the EU budget, as paid as of June 2016 from the central budget, amounts to BGN million, which complies with the existing legislation in the area of EU own resources, Council Decision 2007/436/EC, Euratom on the system of the Communities' own resources and Council Regulation No 1150/2000, as amended by Regulation No 2018/2004, Regulation No 105/2009 and Regulation No 1377/2014, implementing Decision 2007/436/EC. Fiscal reserve as of is BGN 14.1 billion, including BGN 12.6 billion of deposits in the BNB and banks and BGN 1.5 billion of receivables under the EU Funds for certified expenditure, advance payments, etc.

8 8 2. Government debt According to the official register kept by the Ministry of Finance, the central government debt as at end-june 2016 stands at EUR 13,363.0 million According to the official register kept by the Ministry of Finance, the central government debt as at end-june 2016 stands at EUR 13,363.0 million. Domestic debt amounts to EUR 3,508.5 million and external debt - to EUR 9,854.6 million. At the end of the reporting period the central government debt/gross domestic product (GDP) ratio is 29.3%, with the share of domestic debt being 7.7% and of external debt % of GDP. In the central government debt structure, domestic debt at the end of the period amounts to 26.3%, and external debt - to 73.7%. The debt currency structure as of the end of the month is as follows: 78.9% in EUR, 20.2% in BGN, 0.6% in USD and 0.2% in other currencies. Central government debt payments as at end-june amount to BGN 1,382.8 million, of which BGN 1,045.5 million principal repayments and BGN million interest payments. In June, the central government guaranteed debt reaches EUR million, of which EUR 31.9 million domestic guarantees, with the government guaranteed debt/gdp ratio being 0.5%. IV. MONETARY SECTOR In June 2016 broad money (monetary aggregate M3) increased annually by 8.9% compared to 8.1% annual growth in May 2016 In June 2016 broad money (monetary aggregate M3) increased annually by 8.9% compared to 8.1% annual growth in May At the end of June 2016 M3 was BGN billion (83.3% of GDP) compared to BGN billion (82.1% of GDP) in May Its most liquid component monetary aggregate M1 increased by 15% annually in June 2016 (14.2% annual growth in May 2016). At the end of June 2016, deposits of the non-government sector were BGN billion (71.6% of GDP), increasing annually by 9.5% (8.8% annual growth in May 2016). Deposits of Non-financial corporations were BGN billion (19.7% of GDP) at the end of June Compared to the same month of the previous year they increased by 12.9% (13.5% annual growth in May 2016). Deposits of financial corporations increased by 28.7% annually in June 2016 (15.9% annual growth in May 2016). At the end of the month they reached BGN billion (4% of GDP). Deposits of Households and NPISHs were BGN billion (47.8% of GDP) at the end of June 2016, increasing by 6.8% compared to the same month of 2015 (6.5% annual growth in May 2016). Net domestic assets were BGN billion at the end of June They decreased by 3.6% compared to the same month of 2015 (2.5% annual decline in May 2016). At the end of the month their basic component domestic credit was BGN billion and decreased by 3.5% compared to June 2015 (2% annual decline in May 2016). In June 2016 claims on the non-government sector declined by 0.8% annually (1% annual decrease in May 2016) reaching BGN billion. At the end of June 2016, claims on loans to the non-government sector amounted to BGN billion (55.1% of GDP) compared to BGN billion (54.4% of GDP) at the end of May They decreased annually by 0.6% in June 2016 (0.9% annual decline in May 2016). The change of loans to the non-government sector was influenced by net sales of loans by Other monetary financial institutions (Other MFIs) - their volume for the last twelve months was BGN million. On an annual basis, loans sold by Other MFIs were BGN million (of which BGN 33.9 million in June 2016), while the amount of repurchased loans was BGN 32.4 million (of which BGN 3.5 million in June 2016). In June 2016, loans to Non-financial corporations decreased by 1.5% annually (1.1% annual decline in May 2016) and at the end of the month amounted to BGN billion (33.4% of GDP). Loans to Households and NPISHs were BGN billion (20% of GDP) at the end of June They decreased by 0.7% compared to the same month of 2015 (1% annual decline in May 2016). At the end of June 2016 loans for house purchases were BGN billion and increased by 0.2% annually (0.05% annual growth in May 2016). Consumer loans amounted to BGN billion and compared to June 2015 they declined by 1.3% (1.8% annual decrease in May 2016). On an annual basis other loans increased by 4.9% (2.5% annual growth in May 2016) and reached BGN million. Loans granted to financial corporations were BGN billion at the end of June 2016 (1.6% of GDP). Compared to June 2015, they increased by 25% (7.9% annual growth in May 2016). Net foreign assets amounted to BGN billion at the end of the reporting month compared to BGN billion at the end of May They increased by 25.3% on an annual basis compared to 20.6% annual growth in May At the end of June 2016 foreign assets increased by 18.3% annually (14.5% annual growth in May 2016), reaching BGN billion. Foreign liabilities amounted to BGN billion, marking a 9.4% annual decline (10.2% annual decrease in May 2016). V. CAPITAL MARKET SOFIX reached record levels for 2016, marking a new high of for the year The first half of June brought a heavy dose of positivism for the Bulgarian Stock Exchange as the main index SOFIX reached record levels for 2016, marking a new high of for the year. However, investors optimism was cooled down after Great Britain s decision to leave the European Union. The British referendum s outcome was unexpected and triggered a wave of sell offs, however, SOFIX managed to finish the month in the green zone, recording a monthly rise of 3.22%. The other two broader indices, BGBX 40 and BGTR 30, also recorded a monthly increase of 1.57% and 2.48%, respectively. Nevertheless, similarly to SOFIX, these were not enough to compensate the YTD losses. Although BG REIT registered the smallest increase in June, it is the best performer on YTD basis with 5.37% gains since the beginning of The best performing and more liquid shares for the month were the securities of First Investment Bank AD (+29.6%), Albena Invest Holding AD (+19.1%), Chimimport AD (+15.8%) and Oil and Gas Exploration and Production AD (+11.6%).

9 9 VI. BANKING SECTOR In the second quarter of 2016 the main financial indicators of the banking system remained at levels ensuring stability and growth of banking business In the second quarter of 2016 the main financial indicators of the banking system remained at levels ensuring stability and growth of banking business. In the period April June, deposits, loans and balance sheet capital increased, at the same time reporting growth of liquid assets. As of 30 June liquid assets were BGN 27.8 billion, and the ratio calculated under BNB Ordinance No. 11 was 36.64%. In the liquid asset structure, cash and cash balances at the BNB preserved their biggest share (48.0%). In the first half of 2016 the banking sector realized a profit of BGN 773 million, i.e. by BGN 270 million higher than the one reported as of 30 June The improved financial result is mainly owing to the increased profits from financial assets available for sale, lower impairment and reduced interest costs. As of 30 June 2016, the accumulated impairment of loans and receivables in the banking system amounted to BGN 326 million (compared to BGN 416 million a year ago). The total amount of assets in the second quarter increased by BGN 1.5 billion (1.7%), reaching BGN 88.7 billion as of end-june. The most significant growth is registered by loans and advances BGN 974 million (1.8%) with a share of 62.2% in the total amount of banking sector assets. Securities increased by BGN 208 million (1.7%), mainly in the portfolios available for sale and held to maturity. Compared to end-march, the share of debt and of equity instruments in the total amount of banking system assets remained unchanged at 14.3%. The item cash and cash balances at central banks and other demand deposits decreased by BGN 39 million (0.2%), but at the period s end its share remained high 18.5% of the banking sector assets. The quarterly growth of the gross loan portfolio of the banking sector (excluding loans and advances to sectors central banks and credit institutions) amounted to BGN 588 million (1.1%). Loans to non-financial corporations increased by BGN 254 million, and those to other financial corporations by BGN 130 million. Lending to households also registered increase due to the growth in both segments housing mortgage loans (by BGN 58 million) and consumer loans (by BGN 103 million). At the quarter end, the gross amount of non-performing loans and advances in the banking system were to BGN 10,592 million (against BGN 10,735 million as of 31 March 2016). As of end-june the total deposits in the banking system amounted to BGN 75.2 billion, or by BGN 1.5 billion (2.0%) more than at the end of the first quarter of the year. Resources from other financial corporations increased by BGN 627 million (17.9%), and those from non-financial corporations by BGN 590 million (3.1%). Deposits of households increased by BGN 547 million (1.2%). During the period, funds attracted from the general government sector and from credit institutions decreased (by BGN 253 million in total). Funds from local sources (residents), 90.5%, have a determining role in the structure of total deposits, with resources attracted from households having the main share. At the end of the semester equity capital in the balance sheet of the banking system was BGN 11.8 billion. In the period April June it increased by BGN 162 million (1.4%). This growth was owing to the positive contribution of the increase in profit, other reserves and paid-in capital..

10 10 METHODOLOGICAL NOTES EXTERNAL SECTOR CURRENT ACCOUNT Starting from April 17th 2015, in accordance with the Statistical Data Realease Calendar, BNB starts the regular dissemination of monthly balance of payments data, compiled in accordance with the Sixth Edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual. The implementation of the new methodological requirements of BPM6 by the EU countries was coordinated by the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) and the European Statistical System (ESS). With the implementation of the Sixth Edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual (IMF,2008) significant methodological changes in the reporting of trade in goods and trade in services were introduced. Based on their economic nature, certain items were reclassified from Goods (exports and imports) to Services (exports and imports), and vice versa. These methodological changes resulted in differences between the data on goods (exports and imports) compiled by the BNB for the balance of payments statistics, and the external trade statistics compiled by the NSI. Thus, the exports, imports and trade balance data compiled by the NSI do not equate to the exports, imports and trade balance data compiled by the BNB for the purposes of balance of payments statistics. According to external trade statistics, exports of goods amounted to EUR 3,483.1 mn in January February 2015, growing by EUR mn (7.7%) year-on-year (compared with EUR 3,234 mn in January February 2014). Imports of goods amounted to EUR 3,856.9 mn in January February 2015, growing by EUR 58.9 mn (1.6%) year-on-year (from EUR 3,797.9 mn in January February 2014). The trade balance recorded a deficit of EUR mn (0.9% of GDP) in the reporting period, dropping by EUR mn year-on-year (from a deficit of EUR 564 mn, 1.3% of GDP in January February 2014). Taking into consideration the analytical importance of the data on goods (exports and imports) in the external trade statistics, the BNB shall continue its practice of preparing a short text on the external trade dynamics, and maintaining the relevant data series. These materials are included in the Balance of Payments publication, and are published on the BNB website. More detailed information on these methodological changes is available in the material Compilation of the balance of payments in accordance with the methodology of the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual. As far as the direct investment data is concerned, the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual introduced principally different approach for their presentation the Asset/Liability presentation. Taking into consideration the analytical importance of the directional principle presentation (based on the direction of the initial investment), the BNB shall continue disseminating the direct investment data according to it in the Annex Direct Investment of the Balance of Payments monthly publication as well as in the direct investment tables. In accordance with the directional principle presentation, foreign direct investment in Bulgaria amounted to EUR 53.9 mn compared with EUR 94.7 mn in February In January February 2015 the foreign direct investment in Bulgaria inflow equated to EUR mn compared with an inflow of EUR mn in January February Direct investment abroad recorded a net increase of EUR 9.4 mn in February 2015, compared with an increase of EUR 5.7 mn in February In January February 2015 the direct investment abroad decreased by EUR 16.6 mn, against an increase of EUR mn in the same period of More detailed information on the direct investment is available in the annex Direct Investment (January-February 2015) and in table 10. Direct Investment of the monthly Balance of Payments publication. The Current Account comprises the acquisition and provision of goods and services, income, and current transfers between the country and the rest of the world. The flows recorded on the credit side represent that part of the gross domestic product, which is provided to the rest of the world (exports of goods and services), as well as the provision of factors of production expressed by income receivable compensation of employees and investment income (interest, dividends, etc.). Recorded are also offsets for non-refundable real and financial resources received (transfers). The flows on the debit side represent the gross product created in the rest of the world and acquired by the domestic economy (imports of goods and services), as well as the acquisition of factors of production expressed by income payable. Recorded are also offsets to non-refundable real and financial resources provided. The Goods component of the BOP Current Account covers movable goods for which changes of ownership between residents and non-residents occur. The data on imports and exports FOB (Free on board) is based on customs declarations, as the codes used in them are after the Harmonized System for Description and Coding of Commodities of the World Customs Organization, introduced in 1988 and supplemented in With the January 2006 data the Bulgarian National Bank and the National Statistics Institute jointly apply developed by them methodology for compilation of imports at FOB prices and receipts and payments regarding the freight transportation.2 The methodology is based on the analysis of the CIF-FOB correlations for the imports of goods depending on the different imports delivery categories, as well as on the different mode of transportation and nationality of the carrier. The geographical breakdown of the Goods item of the BOP is based on the following principles: For the intra EU trade in goods: - In case of exports (or dispatches) is the country (or Member State) of final destination of the goods - In case of imports (or arrivals) is the country (or Member State) of consignment of the goods. For the trade with third countries (outside EU) - In case of exports partner country is the country of final destination of the goods - In case of imports - partner country is the country of origin of the goods. The Services component comprises transportation, travel, and other services. The Bulgarian National Bank derives the data on freight transportation from foreign trade data and the data on passenger transportation from travel data on the basis of estimates. With the January 2006 data the BNB introduced a new methodology for compilation of receipts and payments