Key indicators for Bulgaria*

Transcription

1 Key indicators for Bulgaria* This update: July 1 Next update: 1 October 1 1. Output Dec.-13 Jan.-1 Febr.-1 March-1 April-1 May-1 Industrial confidence 1.1 % -, -, -,7-9,9 -,9 -,3 -, -, -,9 Industrial production 1., -,,,,,9 3,, Q 13Q1 13Q 13Q3 13Q 1Q1 Gross domestic product 1.3 1,,,9,3,,,9 1, 1,. Private cosumption Q 13Q1 13Q 13Q3 13Q 1Q1 Consumer confidence.1 % -1, -,9-39, -, -37,7-39, -,7-3, -3, Dec.-13 Jan.-1 Febr.-1 March-1 April-1 May-1 Turnover in retail trade.,,,9, 7,3 9,3,, Q 13Q1 13Q 13Q3 13Q 1Q1 Private consumption.3 1,7 3, -1, 1, -, -1, -1,3 -,7 1, 3. Investment Q 13Q1 13Q 13Q3 13Q 1Q1 Capacity utilization in industry 3.1 % 7,9 7, 9, 71,, 9, 9, 7, 9, Gross fixed capital formation 3. -,, -,3,, 1 1, 3,1 3, Change in stocks 3.3 % of GDP,,,, -,7,,,,7. Labour market Q 13Q1 13Q 13Q3 13Q 1Q1 Unemployment rate.1 % 11,3 1,3 1,9 1, 13, 1,9 1, 13, 13, Employed persons. -,9-1,1, -,7,1,9 -,1 -,7 1, Labour costs.3 7,1,9, 1,,7, 7,1, 3, Dec.-13 Jan.-1 Febr.-1 March-1 April-1 May-1 Shortage of labour in industry. % 7,,7, 9, 9,7 9,1 1,1 9,9 11,1 Wages.,, 1, 7,,7 1,,1. International transactions Dec.-13 Jan.-1 Febr.-1 March-1 April-1 May-1 Export order books in industry.1 balance -, -, -9, -3, -1, -, -, -1, -1, Exports of goods. mln. EUR,3 77,, 1, 1, 17,9 1,7 173, Imports of goods.3 mln. EUR -, -3, -1, -19, -19, -19,1-197, -9,7 Trade balance. mln. EUR -1,1-3,3-33,3-3, -33, -1,1 -, -31,1 Current account. mln. EUR 33, -333,9 71,3-3, -77, -17,7 3, -11, Direct investment (net). mln. EUR 11,7, 97,3-31,, 1, -9,3 99, Portfolio investment (net).7 mln. EUR -37, -9, -1, -97,7 11, -19,3 1,9-3, Q 13Q1 13Q 13Q3 13Q 1Q1 Exports of goods and services. 1,3 -,,9 -,7 1,, 1,3 9,3 1, Imports of goods and services.9, 3,3,7, 7,,7 7,,9,3. Prices Dec.-13 Jan.-1 Febr.-1 March-1 April-1 May-1 HICP.1 3,,, -,9-1, -,1 -, -1,3-1, Producer prices on domestic market (in industry).,,3-1,3 -,9 -, -, -1, -,9 Selling prices expectations in industry.3 balance, 9,7,,7 3,9 1,,,, Selling prices expectations in retail trade. balance,7,3,, -, -3,9-1,, -,1 7. Monetary and financial indicators Dec.-13 Jan.-1 Febr.-1 March-1 April-1 May-1 SOFIBOR (3 months) 7.1 index 3,,3 1,1 1, 1,,9,, М3 7. 1,,,9,9 1,1 9,,3,3,7 Credit to Non-financial Corporations and Households and NPISHs 7.3 3,3,,, -,,7 1, 1, 1, Exchange rate USD/BGN 7. value 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1,3 1,1 1, 1,3 Nominal effective exchange rate 7. index 13,1 131, 13,1 13,1 13, 13,7 13,3 13, Note: - growth rate compared to the same period of the previous year. * The key indicators are elaborated in accordance with the euro zone indicators system. The analytical document is quarterly updated. Source of the data are the statistical surveys and data. 1

2 Comments 1. Output According to the business inquiries in May 1 the industrial confidence indicator increased by.3% compared to April 1. In April 1 the working day adjusted Industrial Production Index increased by.% compared to the same month of 13 (preliminary data). An increase in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply - by 13.%, in mining and quarrying - by 11.1% and in manufacturing - by 3.% was recorded. According to the preliminary data, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at current prices in the first quarter of 1 amounted to BGN 1 97 million and the GDP per person amounted to BGN. At average exchange rate for the quarter of BGN 1. for 1 US dollar, the GDP amounted to USD million or USD 1 per person. GDP recalculated in Euro was EUR 3 million or EUR 1 13 per person. According to seasonally adjusted data, in the first quarter of 1, the GDP increased by 1.% compared to the same quarter of the previous year.. Private consumption In April 1 the total consumer confidence indicator increased by. percentage points compared to the January level; an increase by.% was registered among urban population and by.% - among rural one. The consumer s views on the overall economic situation in the country during the last 1 months, as well as their expectations for the next 1 months are less negative than the expressed in the previous inquiry and as a result the balance indicators increased by. and. percentage points. In April 1 the working day adjusted turnover in Retail trade increased by.% compared to the same month of the previous year (preliminary data). More significant growth was observed in Retail sale via mail order houses or via Internet - 1.%, Retail sale of computers, peripheral units and software; telecommunications equipment - 1.1%; in Dispensing chemist; retail sale of medical and orthopaedic goods, cosmetic and toilet articles -.3%. A decrease by.% was observed in Retail sale of automotive fuel, in Other retail sale in nonspecialised stores - by.%, in Retail sale of textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods - by.1%. In the first quarter of 1 for individual consumption were spent.7% of the produced GDP. According to seasonally adjusted data, the real increase of the indicator compared to the respective quarter of 13 was 1.% 3. Investment The average capacity utilization in industry decreased in April 1 by 1.3% compared to January and reached 9.%. According to seasonally adjusted data, the gross fixed capital formation in the first quarter of 1 increased in real terms by 3.% compared to the same period of the previous year. The relative share of that category in GDP is 17.%.. Labour market The total number of employed persons aged 1 and more in the first quarter of 1 was 9.1 thousand or.% of the respective population. Compared to the first quarter of 13, the share of employed increased by.9 percentage points. The number of unemployed in the first quarter of 1 was 33. thousand and the unemployment rate - 13.%. Compared to the same quarter of 13, the number of unemployed decreased by.1% and the unemployment rate - by. percentage points. According to the business inquiries in May % of the industrial enterprises pointed out the labour shortage as a factor limiting their activity. In March 1 the average wage and salary was BGN 13 or.% more compared the previous month. Compared to March 13 the increase was.1%.. International transactions According to the industrial managers assessments in May 1 the orders from abroad increased by 1.3% compared to April. The current account in January - April 1 was negative and amounted to EUR 11. million (.% of GDP), against a deficit of EUR. million (.1% of GDP) in January - April 13.

3 The trade balance deficit in January - April 1 amounted to EUR million (.9% of GDP), against a deficit of EUR million (1.% of GDP) for the same period of 13. Exports (FOB) amounted to EUR 1,73. million in April 1, dropping by EUR 9.1 million (11.%) compared to April 13. In January - April 1 exports (FOB) totalled EUR,7 million, decreasing by EUR 73. million (%) compared to the same period of 13. In January - April 13 exports increased by 1% year-on-year. Imports (FOB) amounted to EUR,9.7 million in April 1, decreasing by EUR 37.1 million (1.7%) compared to April 13. In January - April 1 imports (FOB) totalled EUR 7,73.7 million, falling by EUR. million (.1%) compared to the same period of 13. In January - April 13 imports increased by.% on a year-on-year basis. Direct investment abroad increased by EUR 7.1 million compared to an increase of EUR 1. million in April 13. In January - April 1 the direct investment abroad amounted to EUR 37.9 million compared to EUR 7.3 million in the same period of the previous year. The foreign direct investment in Bulgaria amounted to EUR 1. million compared to negative value of EUR 7. million in April 13. The foreign direct investment in January - April 1 amounted to EUR 1. million (.% of GDP), compared to EUR 3.1 million (.% of GDP) in the same period of 13. The portfolio investment assets increased by EUR.3 million compared to an increase of EUR.9 million in April 13. Portfolio investment liabilities decreased by EUR. million, compared to an increase of EUR.1 million in April 13. The external balance (exports - imports of goods and services) is negative. According to the preliminary data, the export and import decreased by.3 and 1.% respectively compared to the first quarter of previous year. Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance and Health remained at the previous month level. The Producer Price Index on Domestic Market in April 1 decreased by.9% compared to April 13. The prices decreased in the mining and quarrying industry by 1.1% and in the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply - by 1.3%, whereas in manufacturing the prices remain at the April 13 level. The conjuncture inquiry in May 1 registered expectations for remaining of the selling prices at the same level during the next three months. 7. Monetary and financial indicators In April 1 the three-month interbank market index SOFIBOR remained.3% as in the previous month and 1.% compared to April 13. In May 1, the annual growth rate of broad money (monetary aggregate M3) was.7% compared to.3% in April 1. At the end of May 1 M3 was BGN.1 billion (.% of GDP3) compared to BGN 7.77 billion (% of GDP) in April 1. The volume of loans to Non-financial corporations, households and NPISHs in May 1 amounted to BGN. billion. In May 1, loans to Nonfinancial corporations increased by.% annually (.3% annual increase in April 1) and at the end of the month amounted to BGN 3.3 billion (.9% of GDP). Loans to Households and NPISHs were BGN 1.1 billion (3.3% of GDP) at the end of May 1. They increased by.3% compared to the same month of 13 (.% annual increase in April 1). At the end of May 1 loans for house purchases were BGN.7 billion and increased by.3% annually (.3% annual increase in April 1). In May 1 the exchange rate BGN against the US dollar increased compared to the previous month - from 1. to Prices In May 1 the harmonized index of consumer prices decreased by -1.% compared to the same month of 13. Compared to the previous month, an increase was registered for Clothing and footwear and Miscellaneous goods and service. The prices of Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, Housing, 3

4 1. OUTPUT. PRIVATE CONSUMPTION % 1 Industrial confidence indicator last value: May-1 % Consumer confidence indicator Long-term average Industrial production last value: April-1 3 Turnover in retail trade last value: April Gross Domestic Product 1 Private consumption Note: - growth rate compared to the same period of the previous year.

5 3. INVESTMENT. LABOUR MARKET %, Long-term average Capacity utilization in industry 1 % Unemployment rate 7, 1, 1, 1, 1 3,, 1,, Q Gross fixed capital formation Employed persons % of GDP Change in stocks 3 Labour cost index Note: - growth rate compared to the same period of the previous year.

6 . INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS Balance -1 Export order books in industry last value: May-1 1 Mln. euro Exports of goods Trade balance last value: April Trade balance Long-term average Imports of goods Mln. euro Current account last value: April-1 Mln. euro 1 Direct investment (net) last value: April Mln. euro 1 Portfolio investment (net) last value: April-1 7 Exports and imports of goods and services Imports Exports Note: - growth rate compared to the same period of the previous year.

7 . PRICES 7. MONETARY AND FINANCIAL INDICATORS 1 Harmonized index of consumer prices last value: May-1 Index 9, SOFIBOR last value: April-1 1, 1 7, 1,,, 3,, - 1, , Producer prices on domestic market (in industry) last value: April-1 1 last value: May-1 М3 and credit to Non-financial Corporations and Households and NPISHs (loans) Credit to Non-financial Corporations and Households and NPISHs M Balance 1 Selling prices expectations in retail trade last value: May-1 7 Index (1997 = 1) Dynamics of monetary aggregates last value: May-1 Money in circulation 3 М1 Long-term average Note: - growth rate compared to the same period of the previous year. 7

8 Key indicators for Bulgaria - Methodological notes Indicator Note Source 1. Output 1.1. Industrial confidence indicator Business survey in industry. The industrial confidence indicator is an arithmetic average of balances to replies on production expectations, order books and stocks of finished products (the latter with negative sign) 1.. Industrial production Growth rate compared to the same period of the previous year, working day adjusted data (1=1) 1.3. Gross Domestic Product Growth rate compared to the same period of the previous year, seasonally adjusted data corrected. Private consumption.1. Consumer confidence indicator Consumer survey. The consumer confidence indicator is an arithmetic average of balances of the expectations about the economic and financial situation, unemployment and savings of households over the next 1 months.. Turnover in retail trade Turnover in retail trade (excluding motor vehicles), growth rate compared to the same period of the previous year, working day adjusted data (1=1).3. Private consumption Growth rate compared to the same period of the previous year, seasonally adjusted data corrected 3. Investment 3.1. Capacity utilization Average capacity utilization in industry, as a percentage of full capacity (Data are collected each January, April, July and October) 3.. Gross fixed capital formation Growth rate compared to the same period of the previous year, seasonally adjusted data corrected 3.3. Change in stocks As a percentage of GDP. Labour market.1. Unemployment rate Relative share of the unemployed persons of the economically active population in Bulgaria (data from Labour force survey).. Employed persons Growth rate compared to the same period of the previous year (data from Labour force survey).3. Labour costs Index of hourly labour costs incurred by the employers as a result of engaging the workforce, growth rate compared to the same period of previous year, working day adjusted data.. Shortage of labour Percentage of firms in industry pointing out shortage of labour as a constraint to production.. Wages Nominal value, growth rate compared to the same period of the previous year, average montly wages of the employees under labour contract. International transactions.1. Export order books Business survey in industry. Balance of positive and negative replies.. Exports of goods Balance of payment, million EUR.3. Imports of goods Balance of payment, million EUR.. Trade balance Balance of payment, million EUR.. Current account Balance of payment, million EUR.. Direct investment (net) million EUR, balance of payment.7. Portfolio investment (net) million EUR, balance of payment.. Exports of goods and services Growth rate compared to the same period of the previous year, seasonally adjusted data corrected.9. Imports of goods and services Growth rate compared to the same period of the previous year, seasonally adjusted data corrected. Prices.1. Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices Growth rate compared to the same period of the previous year.. Producer prices on domestic market (in industry) Growth rate compared to the same period of the previous year (1=1).3. Selling price expectations in industry Business survey in industry. Balance of positive and negative replies... Selling price expectations in retail trade Business survey in retail trade. Balance of positive and negative replies. 7. Monetary and financial indicators 7.1. SOFIBOR Three-month interbank market index SOFIBOR (SOFIBOR: Sofia Interbank Offered Rate is a fixing of the quotations for unsecured BGN deposits offered in the Bulgarian interbank market) 7.. М3 Growth rate compared to the same period of the previous year (monthly value: value at the end of the month) 7.3. Credit to Non-financial Corporations and Households and NPISHs (loans) Growth rate compared to the same period of the previous year (monthly value: value at the end of the month) 7.. Exchange rate USD/BGN Period averages 7.. Nominal effective exchange rate Index (June 1997=1)