Demographischer Wandel wie lässt sich davon profitieren?

Transcription

1 Demographischer Wandel wie lässt sich davon profitieren? ishares Thematic ETFs Marco Strohmeier, Deputy Head ishares Switzerland SIX ETP Day, 18 th May 2017 FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS / QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY

2 ishares Thematic ETFs 1. Megatrends overview 2. Megatrend investing and thematic ETFs 3. ishares Ageing Population UCITS ETF 4. Index Methodology and Example 5. Appendix FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS / QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY

3 Megatrends overview

4 Megatrends and how you can benefit Megatrends are powerful, transformative forces that could change the global economy, business environment and society. The use of megatrends in investment processes can offer real investment opportunities. Themes that tap into megatrends can provide exposure to these transformative forces. Historically accessed through singles stocks or actively managed strategies, data quality and availability is providing increasing opportunities in the passive space. The use of Thematic ETFs can provide cost effective, flexible access to a theme and have positive effects on the risk/return profile of investment portfolios. FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS / QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY

5 Translating megatrends into investable ideas ishares Healthcare Innovation UCITS ETF ishares Ageing Population UCITS ETF ishares Digitalisation UCITS ETF ishares Automation & Robotics UCITS ETF FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS / QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY

6 Megatrend investing and thematic ETFs

7 Capturing megatrends with investment themes Themes Relevant Business Areas Megatrend Breakthrough Healthcare Personalised Medicines (i.e. human genome) Generic Drugs (e.g. biosimilars) Immunotherapy (e.g. stem cell treatment) Healthcare IT Demographics & Social Change Technological Breakthrough Ageing Population Age-related Conditions (e.g. hearing, vision, mobility) Pension Provision, Health Insurance Elderly Home-Care Consumer/Lifestyle (e.g. security, home automation, travel) Demographics & Social Change Automation & Robotics Artificial Intelligence (e.g. sensors) Agriculture and Mining Technology E-commerce Logistics (e.g. automated warehouse) Manufacturing (e.g. 3-D printing, operating systems) Technological Breakthrough Digitalisation Cybersecurity Retail and Mobile Convergence (i.e. distribution portals) Cloud Computing (e.g. data storage, security) Financial Technology (e.g. robo advisors) Technological Breakthrough Demographics & Social Change Source: Stoxx, BlackRock as of 12 May 2017 FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS / QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY

8 A new approach to thematic investing Innovative & consistent Methodology Smart passive index methodology to access megatrends «Focussed» Portfolio Diversification Diversified portfolios (80+ stocks) across DM and EM Keeping the Story «alive» Monthly reports & thematic check-ins The ETF Advantage Cost-efficient, transparent, liquid and long-term FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS / QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY

9 Ageing population

10 Age (Years) Children Per Person Ageing population The longevity revolution The global population dynamic is shifting towards older people: Global Population Distribution ' ' ' '000 Global Population Distribution ' ' ' '000 Global Population Distribution Age > Age Age ' ' ' '000 People are living longer and are reproducing less: Life expectancy at birth: world and development regions ( ) WORLD Less developed regions More developed regions Least developed countries Total fertility rate ( ) WORLD More developed regions Less developed regions Least developed countries Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS / QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY

11 # Countries Population('000)s Ageing population The longevity revolution The US longevity economy* is to be US$ 15tn by 2020 The global population is undergoing a paradigm shift. The current skew towards the young will be largely eroded over the next 30 years. 54% 46% % % People are living longer and reproducing less, exacerbating the baby-boomer phenomenon. US longevity economy is estimated at US$7.1tn, making it the world s #3 economy it is expected to grow to account for 52% of US GDP by This is a global issue by 2050 close to 80% of people over the age of 60 will be from currently less developed regions. Longevity Economy Other Economy Longevity Economy Other Economy Source: Oxford Economics Ageing is not just a first world problem China already leading and the gap is widening 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% Distribution of world 60+ population by development region 0.0% More Developed Less Developed Number of countries with >30% population aged over 60, Source: United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision at 01/ *Longevity economy defined as all economic activity generated by people aged over ' ' '000 80'000 60'000 40'000 20'000 - Top ten countries with population over 80 in 2015 vs FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS / QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY

12 istoxx Factset Ageing Population Index Index Composition GICS Sector Breakdown vs. MSCI ACWI (%) Country Breakdown vs. MSCI ACWI (%) Financials Information Technology Health Care Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Industrials Energy Materials Telecommunications Utilities 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% MSCI ACWI Index istoxx FactSet Ageing Population Index United States Japan United Kingdom France Canada Switzerland Germany China Australia South Korea Other 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% MSCI ACWI Index istoxx FactSet Ageing Population Index Sample holdings by region Sector Breakdown by no. of constituents Region Large company 1 Level 6 categorisation N. & S. America Express Scripts Holding Co Pharmacy Benefit Management (PBM) Small company 2 Level 6 categorisation BRP Inc. Personal Recreation Vehicle Manufacturing Health and Personal Care Retail 6% Other 21% Insurance 30% Europe APAC Fresenius Diversified Patient Care Ping An Insurance Group Co. of China Life Insurance ION Beam Applications Oncology Devices Modetour Network Inc. Travel Agencies System-Specific Biopharmaceutic als 6% Hospitality Services 9% Investment Services 10% Patient Care 18% *Source: BlackRock, StoxxFactSet, July Market cap greater than $4bn 2 Market cap less than $2bn. Reference to the names of each company mentioned in this communications is merely for explaining the investment strategy, and should not be construed as investment advice or investment recommendation of those companies. FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS / QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY

13 Cumulative Return (%) Annualised Return (%) istoxx Factset Ageing Population Index Performance & Risk Characteristics Cumulative Performance (%) 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% -20.0% -40.0% Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15 Jul 15 Jan 16 Jul 16 istoxx FactSet Ageing Population Index MSCI ACWI Index Calendar Year Returns Annualised Risk and Return istoxx FactSet Ageing Population Index MSCI ACWI Index 13.0% 12.0% 11.0% 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 11.40% 11.60% 11.80% 12.00% 12.20% Annualised Standard Deviation (%) 30 Day Rolling Correlation 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% 28.7% 16.1% 32.7% 22.8% 9.0% 4.2% 5.3% 2.0% -2.4% YTD istoxx FactSet Ageing Population Index MSCI ACWI Index 5.6% Source: Bloomberg, Stoxx as of 31 st July 2016 Figures based on daily net total returns from August 2011 to July Index returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual ishares Fund performance. Index performance returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This analysis contains back-tested index data. Data for time periods prior to the index inception date is hypothetical and is provided for informational purposes only to indicate historical performance had the index been available over the relevant time period. Reference to the names of each company mentioned in this communications is merely for explaining the investment strategy, and should not be construed as investment advice or investment recommendation of those companies Aug 11 Dez 11 Apr 12 Aug 12 Dez 12 Apr 13 Aug 13 Dez 13 Apr 14 Aug 14 Dez 14 Apr 15 Aug 15 Dez 15 Apr 16 FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS / QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY

14 istoxx Factset Ageing Population Index: Stock Example Carnival PLC Carnival PLC is a UK-listed company that owns and operates cruise ships. The company offers cruises globally, has a combined fleet of over 100 vessels across 10 cruise line brands, totalling over 190,000 lower berths. Despite being an established sector, cruise tourism is thriving due to an ageing global population. The industry has seen a global increase in passenger numbers of 68% in the last 10 years (source: Cruise Liners International Association (CLIA). Carnival is expanding into China, which currently represents 5% of global capacity. The company estimates that the Chinese cruise market is expected to grow to over 200 million passengers by 2020.* Carnival share price ( ) 4'500 4'000 3'500 3'000 2'500 2'000 1'500 Dez 10 Mai 11 Okt 11 Mrz 12 Aug 12 Jan 13 Jun 13 Nov 13 Apr 14 Sep 14 Feb 15 Jul 15 Dez 15 Mai 16 RBICS Level Level 1: Economy Level 2: Sector Level 3: Sub-Sector Level 4: Industry Group Level 5: Industry Level 6: Sub-Industry Carnival Corporation & PLC Consumer Services Hospitality Services Hospitality Services Accommodation Providers Cruise Lines Ocean-Going Cruise Lines Source: Bloomberg at 08/08/2016. *Estimates sourced from Carnival Q earnings report. Reference to the names of each company mentioned in this communications is merely for explaining the investment strategy, and should not be construed as investment advice or investment recommendation of those companies. FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS / QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY

15 Index Methodology and Example

16 istoxx Factset Thematic Indices Construction 1 Starting universe The Stoxx Global Total Market Index - Starting universe of over 8,000 stocks - This includes emerging and developed markets - Includes small cap stocks 2 Screening criteria Companies must have at least 50% of their revenue generated from one or more a predefined sector associated with that theme These sectors use the STOXX Factset Revere Hierarchy methodology that seeks to provide a more granular way of categorising companies by thematic sector Stocks must have a minimum market cap of EUR 200M and a minimum 3 month average daily traded volume 3 Weighting methodology Stocks are equally-weighted, this seeks to ensure a broad exposure to each theme is provided and the basket is not highly concentrated in certain names Source: Stoxx as of 20 May 2016 FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS / QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY

17 Methodology Example Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co The stock example is for the Ageing Population theme. It highlights how Fresenius generates over 50% of its revenue from a level 6 sector (Dialysis Services) defined as being an Ageing Population related sector. Level 1 Healthcare Level 2 Healthcare Services Healthcare Equipment Level 3 Miscellaneous Healthcare Patient Care Other Medical Devices Level 4 Nutritional Health Pharmaceuticals Other Ambulatory and Outpatient Patient Care Specialized Medical Devices Level 5 Nutraceuticals Specialized Ambulatory and Outpatient Patient Care System-Specific Specialized Medical Devices Level 6 Nutraceuticals (0.42% of revenue) Dialysis Services (77.37% of revenue) Urology Devices (22.21% of revenue) Source: Factset as at January For illustrative purposes only, characteristics subject to change. Reference to the names of each company mentioned in this communication is merely for explaining the investment strategy, and should not be construed as investment advice or investment recommendation of those companies FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS / QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY

18 Summary AGED Name ISIN / Valor TER AuM ($m) ishares Ageing Population UCITS ETF IE00BYZK4669 / Inception Date Rebalance Frequency 0.40 % /09/2016 Annual Megatrend Demographics & Social Change Relevant Business Areas Age-related Conditions (e.g. hearing, vision, mobility) Pension Provision, Health Insurance Elderly Home-Care Consumer/Lifestyle (e.g. security, home automation, travel) Source: BlackRock as of 12 May 2017 Contact us under: Hotline: FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS / QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY

19 Appendix istoxx Factset Thematic Indices Methodology Overview and Key Features

20 ishares Thematic Strategies Key Index Features Healthcare Innovation Ageing Population Automation & Robotics Digitalisation Weighting Equal weight Equal weight Equal weight Equal weight Rebalancing frequency Annual Annual Annual Annual Number of RBICS sectors No of Stocks Ticker HEAL AGED RBOT DGTL Valor / ISIN IE00BYZK4776 / IE00BYZK4669 / IE00BYZK4552 / IE00BYZK4883 / TER 0.40% 0.40% 0.40% 0.40% AuM USD$ m Inception Date 08/09/ /09/ /09/ /09/2016 Source: Stoxx as of 12 May FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS / QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY

21 $ ishares Thematic Strategies Performance & Risk Characteristics Cumulative performance Jun 11 Aug 11 Okt 11 Dez 11 Feb 12 Apr 12 Jun 12 Aug 12 Okt 12 Dez 12 Feb 13 Apr 13 Jun 13 Aug 13 Okt 13 Dez 13 Feb 14 Apr 14 Jun 14 Aug 14 Okt 14 Dez 14 Feb 15 Apr 15 Jun 15 Aug 15 Okt 15 Dez 15 Feb 16 Year Ageing Population Automation and Robotics Digitalisation Healthcare Innovation Stoxx Global TMI Performance figures since May 2011 to May 2016 Ann. return % Ann. std % Ratio Max DD % Return/MDD Ageing Population 10.74% 14.18% % 0.43 Automation and Robotics 3.10% 15.92% % 0.11 Digitalisation 9.51% 15.00% % 0.43 Healthcare Innovation 13.30% 14.43% % 0.60 Stoxx Global TMI 6.32% 13.41% % 0.30 Source: Stoxx as of 20 May 2016 Figures based on daily net total returns from June 2011 to May 2016 Index returns are for illustrative purposes only and do not represent actual ishares Fund performance. Index performance returns do not reflect any management fees, transaction costs or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This analysis contains back-tested index data. Data for time periods prior to the index inception date is hypothetical and is provided for informational purposes only to indicate historical performance had the index been available over the relevant time period FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS / QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY

22 ishares Thematic Strategies: Commonality Single name overlap in istoxx Factset thematic indices Active Share of istoxx Factset thematic indices Active Share Global TMI Ageing Population Automation & Robotics Digitalisation Healthcare Innovation Global TMI Ageing Population Automation & Robotics Digitalisation Healthcare Innovation FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS / QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY

23 istoxx Factset Ageing Population Index Composition Top 5 Country Breakdown (%) USA Japan Korea Australia UK GICS Sector Breakdown (%) Consumer Discretionary; Consumer Staples; 8.53 Health Care; Industrials; 0.85 Financials; Top 15 RBICS Sectors (%) Retail Advisory & Brokerage Supplemental Health Insurance General Clinical Laboratories Ocean-Going Cruise Lines Source: Stoxx as at 20 May Characteristics subject to change Diversified Patient Care Travel Agencies High-Net Advisory Finance Health Insurance travel Arrangement and Reservation Oncology Devices FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS / QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY

24 Disclaimers Regulatory Information BlackRock Advisors (UK) Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority ('FCA'), having its registered office at 12 Throgmorton Avenue, London, EC2N 2DL, England, Tel +44 (0) , has issued this document for access by Professional Clients only and no other person should rely upon the information contained within it. For your protection, calls are usually recorded. ishares plc, ishares II plc, ishares III plc, ishares IV plc, ishares V plc, ishares VI plc and ishares VII plc (together 'the Companies') are open-ended investment companies with variable capital having segregated liability between their funds organised under the laws of Ireland and authorised by the Central Bank of Ireland. For investors in Switzerland The ishares ETFs are domiciled in Ireland, Switzerland and Germany. BlackRock Asset Management Schweiz AG, Bahnhofstrasse 39, CH-8001 Zurich, is the Swiss Representative and State Street International GmbH, Munich, Zurich Branch, Beethovenstrasse 19, CH-8002 Zürich the Swiss Paying Agent for the foreign ishares ETFs registered in Switzerland.The Prospectus, the Prospectus with integrated fund contract, the Key Investor Information Document, the general and particular conditions, the Articles of Incorporation, the latest and any previous annual and semi-annual reports of the ishares ETFs domiciled or registered in Switzerland are available free of charge from BlackRock Asset Management Schweiz AG. Investors should read the fund specific risks in the Key Investor Information Document and the Prospectus. Restricted Investors This document is not, and under no circumstances is to be construed as an advertisement or any other step in furtherance of a public offering of shares in the United States or Canada. This document is not aimed at persons who are resident in the United States, Canada or any province or territory thereof, where the companies/securities are not authorised or registered for distribution and where no prospectus has been filed with any securities commission or regulatory authority. The companies/securities may not be acquired or owned by, or acquired with the assets of, an ERISA Plan. Risk Warnings Investment in the products mentioned in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not a guide to future performance and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product. The price of the investments may go up or down and the investor may not get back the amount invested. Your income is not fixed and may fluctuate. The value of investments involving exposure to foreign currencies can be affected by exchange rate movements. We remind you that the levels and bases of, and reliefs from, taxation can change. BlackRock has not considered the suitability of this investment against your individual needs and risk tolerance. The data displayed provides summary information. Investment should be made on the basis of the relevant Prospectus which is available from the manager. In respect of the products mentioned this document is intended for information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities described within. This document may not be distributed without authorisation from BlackRock Advisors (UK) Limited. Index Disclaimers istoxx FactSet Ageing Population Index, istoxx FactSet Automation & Robotics Index, istoxx FactSet Digitalisation Index and istoxx FactSet Breakthrough Healthcare Index are the intellectual property (including registered trademarks) of STOXX Limited and/or of its licensors ( licensors ), and are used under a licence. The ishares ETFs are not sponsored, subscribed, sold or promoted by STOXX and its licensors and none of them bear any liability in this respect BlackRock, Inc. All Rights reserved. BLACKROCK, BLACKROCK SOLUTIONS, ishares, BUILD ON BLACKROCK, SO WHAT DO I DO WITH MY MONEY and the stylized i logo are registered and unregistered trademarks of BlackRock, Inc. or its subsidiaries in the United States and elsewhere. All other trademarks are those of their respective owners. FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS / QUALIFIED INVESTORS ONLY