PTT NDR Hongkong - Malaysia July 2016

Transcription

1 PTT NDR Hongkong - Malaysia July 2016

2 1 Contents Overview Performance 2016 Outlook

3 Oil Balance Thailand: Jan Mar 2016 Adequate refining capacity maintains the stability of supply Supply Production Sales Import (78%) 921 KBD Imported Refined Petroleum Products 75 KBD Crude/ Condensate 846 KBD Total Refining Capacity in Thailand: 1,097 KBD Refined Products 1048 KBD* Domestic Indigenous (22%) 279 KBD Crude/ Condensate 258 KBD PTT s Associated Refineries : 635 KBD (TOP, PTTGC, IRPC) Refined Products 166 KBD 953 KBD (**) Export Other Refineries : 462 KBD (SPRC, ESSO, BCP) Crude Export 21 KBD 187 KBD Source: PTIT Remark : (*)Refined product from refineries = 952 KBD, including domestic supply of LPG from GSPs and Petrochemical Plants = 106 KBD (**) Not included Inventory KBD = Thousand Barrels per day 2

4 Natural Gas Balance: Jan Mar 2016 Main driver of the Thai economy Supply Production Sales Gulf of Thailand (72%) Others, 42% Chevron, 28% PTTEP, 30% Onshore (3%) 3,377 MMSCFD Bypass Gas 847 MMSCFD 6 GSPs Total Capacity 2,740 Actual Heat 146 MMSCFD Ethane/ Propane/ LPG/NGL 884 MMSCFD (20%) LPG/NGL Petrochemical Feedstock (12%) Industry Household Transportation (8%) Import (25%) Methane 1,646 MMSCFD Power (60%) Industry (14%) Myanmar 70% LNG 30% 1,141 MMSCFD NGV (6%) Remark: MMSCFD = Million Cubic Heating Value 1,000 Btu/ft 3 3

5 PTT is Thailand s Largest Energy Company PTT Public Limited Company ( PTT ) Largest company on Thai Stock exchange Market cap ~US$50.0bn 1 or ~ THB 1.8 trillion Group companies: 12.8% 1 of Thai Stock Exchange market capitalization Majority owned by Thai government (66%) 51% by Ministry of Finance 15% by Vayupak Fund Fully integrated and highly diversified over the entire O&G value chain International exploration and production business with 738 mmboe of proved reserves in 2015 Sole operator and owner of gas transmission pipelines and GSPs in Thailand Largest refinery group in Thailand with stakes in 3 of 6 refineries in the country Largest petrochemical producer group in Thailand with stakes in 6 of 8 major petrochemical plants Leading oil marketing business with 1,458 retail stations and 40% 2 of market share by volume International oil trading business having traded 81.3 bn liters 3 in 2015 Coal business assets in Indonesia, Madagascar, and Brunei New Power Flagship (GPSC) to capture opportunity in neighboring ASEAN countries 1 As of 30 June 2016 : Avg. BOT selling rate USD/THB of As of 31 March For the year 2015 Robust revenue and Net Income growth since IPO (MMUSD) Revenue Net Income 12, % 19% 81% 142% -42% IPO International and local recognition 180 th in th in th in th in 2011 Thailand best borrower award 2014 Best CEO Best CFO Best Managed Company Best Corporate Governance Best Investor Relations Best Corporate Social Responsibility Best Commitment to Strong Dividend Policy SET Awards CAGR -1% Platts Top 250 Global Energy Company 24th Overall Global Performance in Asia of 2014 Top Corporate Governance Report Award 2010 & 2011 Best Corporate Social Responsibility Awards 2011 & ,922 PTT Affiliate 93 rd Fortune Global 500 in th in st in th in 2012 Dow Jones Sustainability Index (DJSI) DJSI Member (Listed in 2011) 4

6 PTT s Strategic Importance to Thailand Ministry of Finance holds majority stake in PTT PTT ratings at Thai sovereign level Public 34% Foreign 15% Thai 19% Thai Ministry of Finance 51% Kingdom of Thailand FC Baa1 BBB+ BBB+ A- PTT FC Baa1 BBB+ BBB+ A- Vayupak Fund 1 15% PTT LC Baa1 BBB+ A- A Note: As of March 2016 Largest market cap on the Thai Stock Exchange PTT PTTEP PTTGC TOP IRPC GPSC Total Others Market cap (BNUSD) % of SET 6.5% 2.4% 1.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0.4% 12.8% 87.2% Moody s rating Baa1 Baa1 Baa2 Baa1 Ba1 N.A. - - S&P rating BBB+ BBB+ BBB BBB BB+ N.A The Vayupak Fund is a registered investment management fund in Thailand in which the Government is a major unit holder. The Government has rights of first refusal with respect to any of our shares to be sold by the fund. Although the fund s shareholding may be considered to be beneficially owned by the Government under international standards, such shares are not considered to be owned by the Government for the purposes of Thai law or our compliance with certain of our debt covenants 5 2 As of 30 June 2016 : Avg. BOT selling rate USD/THB of

7 Downstream Upstream Intermediate Infrastructure 6 Our Major Businesses & Activities Business Areas Company PTT s holding (%) Activities E&P Coal Gas PTTEP 65.29% Exploration and Production PTT Energy Resources 100% Coal Business PTT PLC Gas Pipeline 100% Sole owner/operator of the Transmission pipeline S&M 100% Supply & Marketing of Natural Gas GSP 100% Extracting Hydrocarbon contents in NG for Petrochemical s feedstock Oil Marketing Oil Marketing 100% Retail service Stations and commercial Marketing Int l Trading Int l Trading 100% Import/Export/Out-Out trading of petroleum and petrochemical products Petrochemical & Refining PTTGC 48.91% Petrochemical Flagship TOP 49.10% Refinery Flagship IRPC 38.51% Integrated Refinery & Petrochemical Power GPSC 22.58% Power Flagship 6

8 7 PTT Aspiration Strategic direction and target to achieve Big-Long-Strong aspiration Thai Premier Multinational Energy Company Strong TOP Quartile ROIC Big Long Ranked Fortune 84 th Listed in DJSI since 2011 Technologically Advanced and Green National Oil Company

9 Pride & Treasure of Thailand 8

10 Q1/2016 Performance: Strong PTT operations offset loss from affiliates MMTHB Others PTTT: loss from MTM of derivatives PTTER as coal price dropped 23,669 PTTNGD due to squeezed margins Net Income 22,584 Petrochem & Refining Avg. A/C GRM decreased 7% BCP and SPRC divestment on Apr 15 & Dec 15 Others P&R PTTEP 2,286 8,044 5,616 2,278 Margin 408 1,756 FX gain Other Income 905 OPEX* 1,027 Share of income 2,087 Int. & CIT exp. 1,847 6,184 3,671 19% 23% 35% Olefins business better from higher HDPE spreads Aromatics improved from spreads margin and volume increase PTTEP Lower avg. price 28% Cash cost reduced 21% Sales vol. increase 4% Gas GSP margin improved from lower feed cost better NGV performance Increased TM performance PTT 6,638 11,967 Q1/15 Q1/16 80% Oil Vol. increased 5% mainly from increased demand from lower retail prices Performance increased from stock gain Trading Margin increased 33% from domestic condensate Vol. decreased 11% from out-out transactions *including petroleum exploration expenses and royalties 9

11 Contents Overview Performance 2016 Outlook 10

12 E&P : lower performance from continuing decline in oil price, albeit slowering E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others Product Prices Sales Volume Liquid ($/BBL) Weighted Avg. ($/BOE) Gas ($/MMBTU) % QoQ 36% YoY 10% QoQ 28% YoY 3% QoQ 25% YoY KBOED Liquid Gas 2% QoQ 4% YoY MMUSD Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 * Gas price, if excludes Vietnam 16-1 retroactive sale recording, is 8.08$ for 9M14 ** Average selling price, if excludes Vietnam 16-1 retroactive sale recording is 66.24$ for 9M Q1/15 Net Income (100%) Q4/15 1, Q1/16 19% QoQ 36% YoY Recurring NI Non-recurring*** *** Includes Deferred tax from Functional currency, Current Tax from FX Revaluation, Gain/loss from Financial instruments, Gain/(loss)on FX, H1 incident Insurance Claim, and etc Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Key Highlights QoQ Avg selling price continued to decline, albeit at a slower pace Sales volume decreased slightly from Zawtika s planned shutdown Recurring NI increased due to the absence of $119m tax expenses as in Q4/15 (reversal of DTA), whilst non-recurring NI decreased due to oil hedging loss in Q1/16 vs gain in Q4/15 YoY Avg selling price significantly declined from slump in oil & gas prices Sales volume increased from Algeria s full production NI declined by 36%, mainly due to selling prices 11

13 E&P Strategy: RESET REFOCUS & RENEW Maintain sales volume Bring down unit cost Progressing on predevelopment candidates Mozambique: focus on finalizing commercial agreement Algeria: access resources and development concept 2016 Full year guidance Avg. Gas Price ($/MMBTU) Avg. Sales Vol. (KBOD/D) EBITDA margin (% of Sale Rev.) Unit Cost ($/BOE) Actual Q1 16 Guidance ~ ~ ~65 29 <34 Exploration in new prospective areas Myanmar: conduct 2D/3D seismic surveys Brazil: prepare for 3D seismic survey Evaluate new investment opportunities Near home Near-term producing assets Prospective exploration blocks LNG value chain: evaluate feasibility 12 partnership with PTTEP 12

14 13 PTT EBITDA Breakdown by BU s: (Unit:MMTHB) Business Unit Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 QoQ YoY Gas- EBITDA 9,204 13,769 14,562 6% 58% S&M 2,495 2,626 1,365 (48%) (45%) TM 6,797 6,956 8,431 21% 24% GSP 842 4,372 3,497 (20%) 315% NGV (3,005) (1,913) (937) 51% 69% Others 2,075 1,728 2,206 28% 6% Oil-EBITDA Trading*-EBITDA 4,015 4,066 5,875 44% 46% 740 1,170 1,108 (5%) 50% Total** 13,959 19,005 21,545 13% 54% *MIS ** Included Gas & Oil subsidiaries

15 Gas BU: NG volume decreased from ESP s T/A, while pooled gas price still trailing $/MMBTU NGV Avg. price Vol. MMCFD 8.6 THB/KG K.Ton/Day Fuel Oil* RHS 9.2 Avg. Pooled gas price 8.82 NG Price VS FO LHS * MOPS HSFO 180 CST Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/ Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 NGV Price/Sales Volume E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others $/Ton %QoQ %YoY FO 26% 50% Pooled Price 6% 27% % QoQ 4% YoY 2% QoQ 7% YoY MMSCFD 4,832 NG Customer Breakdown 4,696 4, , , ,129 1,075 1,075 Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Key Highlights 1% QoQ 4% YoY NGV (7%) Industry (15%) GSP (19%) SPP (17%) IPP (19%) EGAT (23%) QoQ Pooled gas cost further declined, but still lagging selling price, linked to fuel oil NG sales volume maintained, notwithstanding Ethane Separation Plant (ESP) s major T/A. Volume partially offset by increases in SPP s and Industry s demand Slightly higher NGV volume due to one added NGV Station in Q1/16 YoY Overall NG sales decreased from ESP s major T/A and less gas called from EGAT/IPP s NGV volume decreased, as a result of price hikes 14

16 Gas BU: Performance continues to improve from GSP & TM margins and less subsidies E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others GSP Feed Cost vs Petroleum price GSP Sales Volume USD/Ton 1,375 1,234 1, , ,188 1,375 1,234 1,153 1,103 %QoQ HDPE %YoY HDPE -4% -7% LPG Ex-GSP -2% -3% Naphtha -24% -32% Feed Cost -0.3% -19% LPG Ex-GSP* Naphtha Feed Cost** 309 kton 1, ,710 1, % QoQ 8% YoY Pentane (1%) Propane (12%) Ethane (30%) NGL (11%) LPG (46%) Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 * Effective on February 2, 2015 ** Revised feed cost calculation from per sale volume to per GSP production volume MMTHB 9,204 2, Gas - EBITDA 13,769 1,728 14,562 2,206 4,372 3,497 6,797 6,956 8,431 2,495 2,626 1,365 (3,005) (1,913) (937) Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 6% QoQ 58% YoY Others GSP TM S&M NGV Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Key Highlights QoQ GSP performance dropped as a result of ESP s T/A and margin squeeze from petchem prices declined more than feed cost TM margin improved due to increased Total Demand Charge (TDC) volume from additional customers Gas EBITDA is better notwithstanding ESP s T/A, mainly from improvement in TM and NGV YoY GSP feed cost decline (-19%) more than selling prices (HDPE -7% & LPG -3%) helped boost GSP margin Lower PTT s subsidies on LPG and NGV, as a result of price liberalization Gas EBITDA continued to improve from GSP, TM and NGV 15

17 Gas Business Roadmap Overview Performance Key takeaways E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others LNG Projects LNG onshore Terminal 1 Phase 2: Construction completed 85.63%, COD: 2017 New LNG projects approved by Committee on Energy Policy Administration (CEPA), proposing for National Energy Policy Council (NEPC) approval 1) Terminal 1 capacity enhancement (from 10 MTA to 11.5 MTA) Expansion capacity: 1.5 MTA Budget: 1,000 MB COD: ) LNG Onshore Terminal 2 Capacity: (5 or 7.5 MTA), subject to government energy policy and gulf of Thailand gas supply policy Budget: subject to capacity COD: 2022 Additional LNG projects needed for further studies before submitting for CEPA and NEPC for consideration FSRUs (domestic) LNG onshore Terminal 3 FSRU in Myanmar 16

18 Oil BU: Demand continues to adjust following price liberalization K Tons/day NGV - volume continues to fall from price hikes Avg. Sales Vol. (K.Ton/day) Price (THB/Kg) Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others Change Avg QoQ YoY Price % 4% Vol % -7% M.Ton LPG - demand (automobile) and import fall, following price liberalization Industry Auto Household Import THB/kg Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Change Avg. QoQ YoY Price -6% -13% Total vol. -13% -20% Industry 4% 3% Auto -9% -15% Household -0.3% 0.2% Import -52% -66% Gasoline - demand surged, as a result of price drop Diesel - demand improved following price fall M.Litre 1,500 1, Sales Vol. Export THB/Litre Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Change Avg. QoQ YoY 50 Price -5% -14% Vol. 0 2% 12% Export -3% 19% -50 M.Litre 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Sales vol. THB/Litre ,847 1,858 1,871 1,959 1, Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Change Avg. QoQ YoY Price -7% -21% Vol. (10.00) 5% 6% (20.00) (30.00) (40.00) Export -44% -19% (50.00) 17

19 Oil BU : Better performance mainly from stock gain E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others Petroleum Prices Sales volume 1/ Contribution margin 2/ (Average Prices) USD/BBL LPG (Pool) RHS Gasoline LHS Diesel LHS MMTHB Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Oil - EBITDA QoQ YoY Oil 57% 53% Non-oil 0.2% 18% (Average Prices) USD/ton THB/Liter 0.94 MM Liter 6, , ,677 Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 1 / PTT only 2 / Excluded Non-oil and stock gain/loss Key Highlights 26% QoQ 7% YoY 3% QoQ 5% YoY QoQ Volume slightly increased mainly from lower product prices Contribution margin decreased mainly due to the decline in margin for aviation fuel, gasoline, and diesel Stock Gain/Loss (MMTHB) 5,875 4,015 4,066 3,269 3,185 4, Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 (1,229) (1,657) 687 * EBITDA from Operating Oil Non-Oil* YoY Sales volume significantly increased mainly from lower product prices Slightly lower contribution margins mainly from the decline in margin of aviation fuel Higher EBITDA mainly from stock gain and increase in nonoil (Amazon +20%) 18

20 Trading BU: Margin improved from domestic condensate E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others Contribution Margin* Sales Volume NWS ($/BBL) Dubai ($/BBL) 0.06 Contribution Margin (THB/Liter) % QoQ 26% YoY 25% QoQ 42% YoY 11% QoQ 33% YoY MM Liter 8% QoQ 11% YoY 21,067 20,438 18,823 Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 * PTT only : FX Adjusted Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 * PTT only : FX Adjusted Trading - EBITDA* MMTHB 5% QoQ 50% YoY 1,170 1, Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Key Highlights QoQ Volume decreased mainly from lower out-out transactions as low seasonal demand in Q1, compared to peak demand in Q4 Margin slightly decreased from lower domestic crude margin, following lower oil price, despite improved condensate margin YoY Sales volume declined, mainly from decline in out-out trading of petroleum products supplied to Indonesia, following Indonesian s policy change since Q2/15 Better contribution margins, mainly from better domestic condensate margins from higher condensate demand 19

21 20 Trading BU: Geographical coverage expansion continues E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others Major Aromatics Products Exporter from India Become a major aromatics products exporter from More than 50% of total export volume from India in some products, via a strong relationship with 4 main producers Create more flexibility on portfolio optimization.

22 Refining BU: Lower GRM and stock loss, while better Aromatics helped E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others Dubai USD/BBL Mkt GRM Stock Gain/Loss A/C GRM* Aggregated Intake (KBD) A/C GIM* GRM/GIM Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Refinery Utilization 8.15 U-Rate (%) Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Aggregated U-Rate *A/C GRM and A/C GIM include effect from hedging gain/(loss) QoQ QoQ TOP IRPC YoY A/C GIM 8% 1% YoY 0.2% 2% Aromatics Aromatics Production 66% 85% 80% QoQ YoY BZ 54% 59% USD/Ton PX 15% 30% PX-ULG BZ-ULG95 Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Net Income (100%) Unit : MMTHB 11,968 QoQ YoY 2,601 SPRC 25% 35% 1,037 BCP 6,170 7,740 3,832 IRPC 3,014 1, ,498 3,749 4,726 TOP Q1/15 21 Q4/15 Q1/16** ** Sold out of BCP and SPRC 21

23 22 Refineries : Strategic Projects update E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB) Successfully COD on 25 Feb 2016 On technical aspect, plant is successfully test run and capable to run up to 120% (at 120 KTA) On commercial aspect, trial cargo has been delivered to customers for quality testing EVEREST Performance : $300m+ Health : top quartile TOP SPP (2blocks of SPP) Successfully COD 1st block of TOP SPP (124MW) on 1 Apr16 2nd block (115 MW): Trial run in late Apr 16 COD on 1 Jun 2016 Overall progress at 99.9%

24 Petrochemical BU: Pressured Refinery & Olefins, despite better Aromatics USD/BBL CDU U-Rate Mkt GRM 102% 99% 93% BTX 88% 66% U-Rate QoQ YoY A/C GRM* Refineries 7.63 E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others A/C GRM 49% 7% USD/Ton BZ-Cond PX-Cond Aromatics 87% QoQ YoY BZ 17% 25% PX 1% 25% Stock Gain/Loss Net NRV Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Olefins Olefins 96% 97% U-Rate USD/Ton *A/C GRM include effect from hedging gain/(loss) 1,188 1,149 1,153 1, % QoQ 930 YoY HDPE 4% 7% PP 7% 19% Aromatics Mkt P2F Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Unit : MMTHB Net Income (100%) 6, ,406 1,263 5, QoQ Others HMC Mkt P2F 20% QoQ 8% YoY YoY 1% 21% HDPE Price PP Price 5,631 4,691 4,707 PTTGC -548 Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 23

25 Petrochemical : Strategic Projects update E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others 11,000 MTP Retrofit 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 Existing Non Captive Upstream and HDI Monomer 70 KTA Phenol II 405 KTA Aromatics 170 KTA HDI Deriv. 12 KTA mlldpe 400 KTA PO/Polyol 250 KTA MTP Retrofit 761 KTA 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F ARO2 Phenol2 HDI Thailand HDI France MLLDPE PO/Polyol MTP Retrofit CAPEX MUSD 345 MUSD 43 MUSD 18 MUSD MUSD TBC TBC Additional PetChem* (per year) PX 115 KTA BZ 35 KTA OX 20 KTA PH 250 KTA AC 155 KTA HDI Derivative 12 KTA HDI Monomer 70 KTA MLLDPE 400 KTA Hexene-1 34 KTA PO 200 KTA Polyol 130 KTA Ethylene 500 KTA Propylene 261 KTA COD May 2016 May 2016 Q3 16 Q Q EBITDA Uplift/Year** 24 MUSD 63 MUSD 9 MUSD 24 MUSD 59 MUSD 100% stake of additional capacity ** Estimate EBITDA uplift with 100% stake at mid cycle price 24

26 Other Businesses : Coal - SAR Continued under pressure from low coal price, despite cost improvements E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others Avg. Selling Price & Cash cost Sales Volume New Castle Avg. Selling Price Cash Costs USD/Ton QoQ YoY 4% 23% 13% 20% 23% 12% kton 2, ,968 1, % QoQ 19% YoY 2,063 Sebuku 617 1,446 Jembayan Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 EBIT Key Highlights MMUSD 2.4x 70% Operating profit 23 (5) 7 (149) (154) Impairment Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 QoQ YoY QoQ Selling price declined by 13%, however, cash cost declined by 23%, from successful negotiations with contractors and reduction in fuel cost, following lower oil price Volume increased, mainly from effort to sell during annual price peak in Q1, following seasonal contract renewal period YoY Sales volume decreased, as coal price dropped from oversupply Performance dropped, mainly from lower coal price, despite reduction in production costs 25

27 Other Businesses : Power - GPSC Outstanding performance, as a result of higher sales and plant/cost optimization E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others GWh 000 Ton Steam Sales Volume 1,233 1,198 QoQ YoY Power 16% Power 6% Steam 10% Steam 7% 1,320 MMBaht Net Income (100%) >100% QoQ 64% YoY 871 Power Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Committed Capacity Key Highlights Cogen : SPP 29.5% Renewable 2.4% Combined heat: VSPP 0.4% Operating 1,338 MW Combine Cycle : IPP 67.7% Cogen: SPP 36% Renewable 4% Under construction 584 MW Hydro 60% QoQ Higher sales due to higher sales to EGAT and IRPC-CP full operations NI increased, mainly from lower feed cost, plant optimization and dividend income from RPCL (THB 180m in Q1/16) YoY Higher sales, as a result of Rayong Plant s S/D for Minor Inspection in Q1/15 Better NI, due to higher demand and better cost management 26

28 Other Businesses : Power GPSC Growth roadmap 8 committed projects E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others Unit: Equity MW GPSC s Committed Capacity Total Capacity by 2019 Electricity Stream 1,922 MW 1,582 (T/h) 27

29 PTT Consolidated Performance: Q1/2016 Avg. Dubai (USD/BBL) Unit : MMTHB Revenue EBITDA , , ,940 Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 70,742 65,607 71,341 Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 25% QoQ 41% YoY 18% QoQ 25% YoY 9% QoQ 1% YoY 28% 6% 28% Q1/15 Revenue 18% 6% 13% 3% 1% EBITDA 47% 50% P&R PTTEP 29% 6% PTT - Gas P&R PTT - Oil & Trading 29% 9% Q1/16 Others 1% Revenue 20% Others 1% EBITDA 21% PTT - Gas 44% 40% PTT - Oil & Trading PTTEP Net Income/ Operating Performance Operating Performance Net Income Operating Performance 22,584 23,669 23,669 18% QoQ 21,497 20,139 10% YoY Net Income >100% QoQ 25% 5% YoY % Net Income 36% 29% PTTEP P&R Others 15% 26% 8% Net Income 51% PTT 28

30 Statement of Financial Position MMTHB 1,805,041 1,818,746 2,173, % 2,176,738 Assets slightly increased : Rise in cash and cash equivalents mainly from operating cash inflow Decrease in A/R & A/P due to lower in product price Cash & S/T Invest Other Current Assets Others Noncurrent Assets 346, , , , , , , , , ,929 Other Liabilities L/T Liabilities (incl. due within 1 yr) Net Debt/EBITDA Net Debt/Equity (0.1) YE15 Q1/ PP&E 1,118,677 1,087,687 1,112,094 1,110,345 Total Equity PTT Ratings at Sovereign Level FC : Moody s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+), JCR (A-), FITCH (BBB+) 1 31 Dec Mar Sep LC : Moody s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+), JCR (A), FITCH (A-) 29

31 Dividend Policy & Historical Payments PTT is firmly committed to pay dividend at no less than 25% of net income 148.6% 32.4% 32.6% 29.8% 30.1% 30.3% 30.8% 33.0% 43.6% 40.4% 34.7% 34.9% 35.5% 40.0% 54.1% 25% PTT s minimum payout ratio 25% Baht / share Dividend payout EPS DPS

32 PTT: CAPEX (PTT and Wholly Owned Subsidiaries) PTT plans to invest ~Bt 297bn* ($8bn) during CAPEX revision Y2016: CAPEX lower by ~ THB 7.5 bn Reduction mainly from: Natural gas: Terminated GSP capacity expansion, Postpone Hybrid NGL project Infrastructure: Delayed Offshore compressor By Strategy 89,085 Green, 1% 2, ,595 Energy Infrastructure 69% JV & Investment in Subsidiaries 23% M&A and Oversea investment 8% Oil & Trading 8% Gas 13% By Business Unit LNG 15% R&D, Others 1% Infrastructure 55% PTT 5-Years CAPEX Plan Bt 297 bn Infrastructure Investment in JV and its subs Head Office and Others Oil and International Trading Natural Gas 50,839 43,307 20,612 18,741 10,967 10, , ,868 11,118 4, (revised) * budget approved by BOD on 17 Jun 16 67,514 68,517 58,306 32,983 34,649 46,042 29,008 17, ,106 5,466 13,245 13,586 4, ,850 3, , ,619 5,698 5, ,473 Unit: MMTHB 5 th pipeline & extension LNG, M&A and Investment Oversea 31

33 32 Contents Overview Performance 2016 Outlook

34 Summary: Y Forecast Business Y2015 Q1/2016 Y2016(E) VS Q1/2016 Gas Price ($/mmbtu) - Henry Hub - JKM Oil Price ($/bbl) Dubai Price Range Range Reason US export LNG (Sabine Pass LNG) Higher supply and weak demand in North Asia Decline in US oil output in 2H16 but oversupply condition remains Refinery Margin ($/bbl) Singapore GRM Range 6-7 Lower Gasoline crack due to high inventory & slow demand during winter season in Q4 Lower Fuel Oil crack due to weak demand in Japan and reduced Chinese import Petrochemical ($/ton) - Olefins (HDPE, PP) - Aromatics (PX, BZ) HDPE-Naphtha =746 PP Naphtha = 645 PX-Naphtha = 353 BZ-Naphtha = 195 HDPE-Naphtha =762 PP Naphtha = 569 PX-Naphtha = 410 BZ-Naphtha = 233 HDPE-Naphtha = 798 PP Naphtha = 649 PX-Naphtha = 388 BZ-Naphtha = 223 Olefins Supply tight during Turnaround season in Q2 Supported by seasonal demand Aromatics More supply in 2H after plant resumption from unplanned /planned shutdown 33

35 34 Thank you PTT Public Company Limited Investor Relations Department Tel , Fax , ir@pttplc.com Website: Disclaimer The information contained in our presentation is intended solely for your personal reference only. In addition, such information contains projections and forward-looking statements that reflect our current views with respect to future events and financial performance. These views are based on assumptions subject to various risks and uncertainties. No assurance is given that future events will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that our assumptions are correct. Actual results may differ materially from those projected. Petroleum Reserves and Resources Information In this presentation, the Company discloses petroleum reserves and resources that are not included in the Securities Exchange and Commission of Thailand (SEC) Annual Registration Statement Form 56-1 under Supplemental Information on Petroleum Exploration and Production Activities. The reserves and resources data contained in this presentation reflects the Company s best estimates of its reserves and resources. While the Company periodically obtains an independent audit of a portion of its proved reserves, no independent qualified reserves evaluator or auditor was involved in the preparation of reserves and resources data disclosed in this presentation. Unless stated otherwise, reserves and resources are stated at the Company s gross basis. This presentation may contain the terms proved reserves, probable reserves, and/or contingent resources. Unless stated otherwise, the Company adopts similar description as defined by the Society of Petroleum Engineers. Proved Reserves - Proved reserves are defined as those quantities of petroleum which, by analysis of geological and engineering data, can be estimated with reasonable certainty to be commercially recoverable, from a given date forward, from known reservoirs and under current economic conditions, operating methods, and government regulations. Probable Reserves - Probable reserves are defined as those unproved reserves which analysis of geological and engineering data suggests are more likely than not to be recoverable. Contingent Resources Contingent resources are defined as those quantities of petroleum which are estimated, on a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations, but which are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable. The reasons for non commerciality could be economic including market availability, political, environmental, or technological. 34

36 35 Debt Profile : Control Cost & Manage Risk Managed debt according to financial risk and policy Debt Portfolio Unit : MMTHB PTT Only Consolidated : Cost of debts ~ 4.58% : % fixed-rate ~ 73% : Avg. debt life ~ 8.18 years : Cost of debts ~ 4.45% : % fixed-rate ~ 70% : Avg. debt life ~ 7.29 years USD&Other THB 689, ,127 (44%) 625, , , ,621 (41%) (40%) 288,545 83,985 (29%) 265, ,078 81,154 80,495 (31%) 204, , ,583 (71%) (69%) (31%) (69%) 384, , ,696 (56%) (59%) (60%) 31 Dec Dec Mar Dec Dec Mar Note : Data as of 31 Mar 16 (THB/USD = THB/JPY = ) Excluding liabilities from finance leases; Cost of debts includes withholding tax. Cost of debts, % fixed rate, and avg. debt life took into account the derivative transactions. Debt outstanding is reconciled with accounting.

37 Statements of Consolidated Cash Flows : Q1/16 Operating Q1/15 104,337 Q1/16 76,345 Net Income 22,584 23,669 Changes in assets & liabilities 43,082 7,992 Income Tax (2,037) (2,549) Non-Cash Adjustment 40,708 47,233 Investing Q1/15 (87,624) Q1/16 (62,819) CAPEX (PP&E, Intangible asset) (46,059) (32,540) Investment (Sub. &Affiliates) (568) (245) Current investment (44,046) (29,481) Dividend/Interest Received 1,276 1,217 Others 1,773 (1,770) Free Cash flow 16,713 13,526 Adjustment Financing (26,963) (8,008) Repayment Loans (12,858) (12,869) Interest paid (7,835) (7,074) Dividend paid (0) (330) Received from share issue Received from loans/bonds (6,383) 12,265 Others - - 1,018 4,337 Beginning Cash and Cash Equivalents Cash In/(Out) Ending Cash & Cash Equivalents 234, ,978 (9,232) 9, , ,833 36

38 37 Statements of Cash Flows (PTT Only) : Q1/16 Operating Q1/15 Q1/16 18,806 21,480 Net Income 12,083 18,282 Changes in assets & liabilities 8,046 3,443 Income Tax (502) (382) Non-Cash Adjustment (821) 137 Investing CAPEX (PP&E, Intangible asset) Investment (Sub. &Affiliates) Current investment Dividend/Interest Received Others Q1/15 Q1/16 (19,403) (29,743) (8,643) (5,584) (300) (39) (10,312) (21,241) 545) 548) (692) (3,426) Free Cash flow (597) (8,263) Financing (8,378) (4,047) Repayment Loans (6,645) (1,643) Interest paid (2,555) (2,739) Dividend paid 0 0 Received from share issue 0 0 Received from loans/bonds Adjustment (60) 13 Beginning Cash and Cash Equivalents Cash In/(Out) Ending Cash & Cash Equivalents 58,018 67,525 (9,035) (12,297) 37 48,983 55,228

39 PTT Group Performance : Q1/2016 (YoY) Overview Performance Key takeaways Unit : MMTHB Performance 100% % PTT holding Equity Method % PTT Q1/15 Q1/16 YoY Q1/15 Q1/16 YoY PTT Net operating Income 6,638 11,967 80% 6,638 11,967 80% E&P - PTTEP 8,616 5,625-35% 65.3% 5,616 3,671-35% - PTTGC 5,631 4,707-16% 49.3% 2,684 2,242-16% - HMC/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC/PTTMCC/PMMA 1, % % Petrochemical 6,908 5,482-21% 3,304 2,572-22% - TOP 4,498 4,726 5% 49.1% 2,217 2,366 7% - IRPC 3,832 3,014-21% 38.5% 1,571 1,246-21% - SPRC 2, % 5.41%* % - BCP 1, % 0%** % Refining 11,968 7,740-35% 4,740 3,612-24% Inter - PTTER, PTTGE % 100% % Gas - PTTLNG/PTTNGD/ TTM(T)/ TTM (M) 1,071 1,349 26% 1,042 1,228 18% Utilities -GPSC/ TP/ DCAP 854 1,311 54% % Oil & Oth. - PTTT/SBECL/THAPPLINE/PTTRB/PTTANK/Others 1,499 1,060-29% 1, % Others Business 2,894 3,372 17% 2,287 1,847-19% Shared of Net Income from Affiliates 30,386 22,219-27% 15,947 11,702-27% PTT Conso. Net Income 37,024 34,186-8% 22,585 23,669 5% *SPRC before disposed = 36%, **BCP divested in April

40 PTT Group Performance : Q1/2016 (QoQ) Unit : MMTHB Performance 100% % PTT holding Equity Method % PTT Q4/15 Q1/16 QoQ Q4/15 Q1/16 QoQ PTT Net operating Income 9,044 11,967 32% 9,044 11,967 32% E&P - PTTEP 4,694 5,625 20% 65.3% 3,070 3,671 20% - PTTGC 4,691 4,707 0% 49.3% 2,256 2,242-1% - HMC/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC/PTTMCC/PMMA % % Petrochemical 5,406 5,482 1% 2,505 2,572 3% - TOP 3,749 4,726 26% 49.1% 2,038 2,366 16% - IRPC 447 3, % 38.5% 263 1, % - SPRC 1, % 5.41%* % - BCP - - #DIV/0! 0%** - 0 #DIV/0! Refining 6,170 7,740 25% 2,858 3,612 26% Inter - PTTER, PTTGE -18, % 100% -18, % Gas - PTTLNG/PTTNGD/ TTM(T)/ TTM (M) 1,911 1,349-29% 1,487 1,228-17% Utilities -GPSC/ TP/ DCAP 377 1, % % Oil & Oth. - PTTT/SBECL/THAPPLINE/PTTRB/PTTANK/Others 270 1, % % Others Business -15,801 3, % -16,874 1, % Shared of Net Income from Affiliates , % -8,441 11, % PTT Conso. Net Income 9,098 34, % , % *SPRC before disposed = 36%, **BCP divested in April

41 Data as of 31 March 2016 E&P and Gas Business Group Oil Business Group Petrochemicals & Refining Business Group Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT Exploration & Production Plc. PTTEP 65.29% PTT Natural Gas Distribution Co., Ltd. PTTNGD 58.00% PTT LNG Co., Ltd. PTTLNG % Thai Oil Power Co., Ltd.* TP 26.00% Global Power Synergy Co., Ltd* GPSC 22.58% Joint Ventures Equity Trans Thai-Malaysia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. TTM (T) 50.00% Trans Thai-Malaysia (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. TTM (M) 50.00% District Cooling System and Power Plant DCAP 35.00% Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT (Cambodia) Co., Ltd. PTTCL % PTT Retail Business Co., Ltd. PTTRB % Thai Lube Blending Co., Ltd. TLBC** 48.95% PTT Tank Terminal Co., Ltd. PTTTANK % PTT Oil Myanmar Co., Ltd. PTTOM % Associates Equity Keloil-PTT LPG Sdn. Bhd. KPL 40.00% Thai Petroleum Pipeline Co., Ltd.THAPPLINE 40.40% PetroAsia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. PA(Thailand) 35.00% Others Cost PetroAsia (Maoming) Co., Ltd. PA(Maoming) 20.00% PetroAsia (Sanshui) Co., Ltd. PA(Sanshui) 25.00% Intoplane Services Co., Ltd. IPS 16.67% Fuel Pipeline Transportation Co., Ltd.FPT % Others Fair Value Bangkok Aviation Fuel Services Plc. BAFS 7.06% Petrochemical Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT Polymer Marketing Co., Ltd. PTTPM 50.00% PTT Polymer Logistics Co., Ltd. PTTPL**50.00% PTT PMMA Co., Ltd. PTTPMMA % PTT Global Chemical Plc.* PTTGC 49.42% PTT Maintenance and Engineering* PTTME 40.00% PTT Energy Solutions Co., Ltd.* PTTES 40.00% Joint Ventures Equity HMC Polymers Co., Ltd. HMC 41.44% PTT Asahi Chemical Co., Ltd. PTTAC 48.50% PTT MCC Biochem Co., Ltd. PTTMCC 50.00% Refining Subsidiaries Consolidate Thai Oil Plc.* TOP 49.10% IRPC Plc.* IRPC 38.51% Refining Associates Equity Star Petroleum Refining Co., Ltd. SPRC 5.41% International Trading Business Group International Investment Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT International Trading Pte. PTTT % Others Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT Energy Resources Co., Ltd. PTTER % PTT Green Energy Pte. Ltd PTTGE % Subsidiaries Consolidate Others Fair Value Energy Complex Co., Ltd. EnCo 50.00% Dhipaya Insurance Plc. TIP 13.33% Business Service Alliance Co., Ltd. BSA * 25.00% PTT Regional Treasury Center Pte. Ltd. PTTRTC % PTT ICT Solutions Co., Ltd.* PTTICT 20.00% 40 Remark : *The companies have changed their status to subsidiaries due to impact from PACK5 ** Subsidiaries that PTT holds less than 50% but being consolidated because PTT has the power to control the financial and operating policies. 40

42 Natural Gas Price Structure : Jan-Mar 2016 Gas prices are mostly agreed under long-term contracts and volatility pass-through to ensure stable returns. Customers Sales Price Structure Gas Pool Price + Supply Margins + Pipeline Tariffs Power Producers 60% : EGAT 23% : IPP 19% : SPP 18% GSP 20% Average Purchased Gas Price 1.75% * 1.75% * 9.33% * Charged at the same price structure of power producers 21.9 Bt/MMBtu * EGAT IPP and SPP Supply Margins not more than and respectively Petrochemicals Feedstocks Ethane, Propane, LPG NGL Local Cooking Gas Export Cooking Gas Industry 14% NGV 6% Profit-sharing mechanism based on market prices of petrochemicals Reference to Naphtha market price At GSPs cost (adjusted every 3 months) Reference to Saudi Aramco s contract price Charged at prices comparable to fuel oil 21 Jan -15 Jul 2016: Capped at Baht/Kg. If cost is less than Baht/Kg, retail price will be set to reflect the cost. Contract periods are ~ years or until depletion of gas fields or the expiration of concessions 41 41

43 Natural Gas : A steadily growth of natural gas upon Government fuel diversification policy for power generation Gas demand forecast (CAGR during ) : Total ~ 0.3% : Power ~ 1% : GSP ~ -3% : Industry ~ 2% : NGV ~ -1% Source : PTT 42

44 Thailand s Projected Energy Demand Primary Energy Consumption KBD 3, Hydro/Import 2% ,494 2, % Renewable 26% % 20% 12% 37% 2% 20% 14% 35% 4.1% 3.0% 1.7% Coal/Lignite Natural Gas 15% 32% % 29% 1.4% Oil 25% 0 Source : EPPO/ DEDE/ PDP 2015/ PTT analysis as of May

45 44 Gas Business Generates Stable Returns Overview Gas transmission pipeline capacity Sole owner and operator of entire gas transmission pipelines in Thailand (~ 4,000 km), a regulated business IRROE ranges between 12.5% - 18% for transmission pipeline investment Supply & marketing of natural gas provides fixed margin with long-term contracts of years 6 Gas Separation Plants; Total production 6.7 MTA; are on petrochemical market price-linked profit sharing basis

46 Key Business Drivers: Oil price bottom out & NG further decline Overview Performance Key takeaways Dubai vs FO ($/BBL) 25 NG Prices ($/MMBTU) LNG (JLC) ($/MMBTU) JKM Spot Avg. Pooled Gas ($/MMBTU) 90 Dubai FO Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan HDPE-Naphtha Spread PX-Naphtha Spread HDPE and PX spreads($/ton) HDPE PX 100 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Note: Figures are average * Naphtha (MOPJ) JLC* JKM Avg. Pooled Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 * JLC = Japan LNG Cocktail : Landed LNG price in Japan 32.8 FX (USD/THB) Depreciated 3.0 THB/USD (9.1%) Appreciate 45 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan THB/USD (0.55%) 45

47 Energy Price Reform: LPG Prices Lifted GSP Capped Price from 333 USD/TON to reflect GSP Cost Imported 2.0 Mil. Ton (27%) GSP 3.6 Mil. Ton (48%) Refinery 1.9 Mil. Ton (25%) *CP Jan 15= 443 $/ton CP+85 $/ton or 528 $/ton 498 $/ton CP-20 $/ton or 423 $/ton 488 $/TON or /kg Oil Fund AS CLEARING HOUSE Tax 2.39 /kg Tax 2.39 /kg Margin 3.26 /kg Margin 3.26 /kg Oil Fund 0.63 /kg No oil Fund VAT 1.57 /kg VAT 1.19 /kg Need subsidy 4.82 /kg /kg Cooking Transport Industrial /kg Low income LPG prices for Petchem : not controlled, but linked to market price and/or contract price 46

48 47 PTT strategies to cope with low oil price Corporates Survival Strategy: ROIC strategy to drive strong performance 1. Rationalization 2. Optimization Focus On : - Core Assets/Area - Strategic Direction - Future Potential - Low Cost Rationalization Optimization Operational Excellence Supply Chain Management Optimization Synergy New Technology Development Divest from: - Non Core/Strategic - Small Investment - Non Potential - High Cost Cost Reduction 3. Integration Integration Vertical Integration Increase Stability of fluctuation on business cycle Increase Resilience Consolidation 4. Consolidation Increase Size/Scale Complement Strategic Focus Minimize Unit Cost Increase Competitiveness

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