Analyst Meeting Q1/2016. Synergy Hall 23 May 2016

Transcription

1 Analyst Meeting Q1/2016 Synergy Hall 23 May 2016

2 2 Safety and Sustainability: People and Culture Aspiration = Zero Accident 4 Injury Rate (Injuries/Million hrs) Policy and Standard Process and Platform Technology and Innovation Jan-Apr 2016 * Total Recordable Injury Rate TRIR-employee TRIR-contractor Jan Apr 2016 Performance 1

3 3 Contents Overview Performance Key takeaways

4 Q1/2016 Highlights: Key Events Update (Q1) Performance (YoY) NGV price floating in Jan 16 with capped ceiling at Bht/kg for 6 months Divestment SBECL GAS GSP, TM and NGV performance improved Oil performance increased from stock gain Trading performance improved from domestic condensate Power performance improved from higher sales volume, lower gas cost and dividends received from RPCL ESP major T/A 23 days (1-23 Mar 16) The tribunal rules on PTT to make payment for damages to RPC regarding termination of commercial contract (25 Mar 16) The Chief Ombudsman submitted the complaint regarding PTT not returning the natural gas pipeline assets in accordance with the judgment of the Supreme Administrative Court (4 Apr 16) PTTEP lower performance from decrease in oil price P&R pressured performance from refineries despite improved aromatics and olefins Coal performance declined from low coal price Finance PTTGC Drawdown LT loan ~6,000 MB IRPC - Drawdown LT~ 2,000 MB 4

5 Key Business Drivers: Oil price bottom out & NG further decline Dubai vs FO ($/BBL) 25 NG Prices ($/MMBTU) LNG (JLC) ($/MMBTU) JKM Spot Avg. Pooled Gas ($/MMBTU) 90 Dubai FO Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan HDPE-Naphtha Spread PX-Naphtha Spread HDPE and PX spreads($/ton) HDPE PX 100 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Note: Figures are average * Naphtha (MOPJ) JLC* JKM Avg. Pooled Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 * JLC = Japan LNG Cocktail : Landed LNG price in Japan 32.8 FX (USD/THB) Depreciated 3.0 THB/USD (9.1%) Appreciate 4 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan THB/USD (0.55%) 5

6 Q1/2016 Performance: Strong PTT operations offset loss from affiliates MMTHB Others PTTT: loss from MTM of derivatives PTTER as coal price dropped 23,669 PTTNGD due to squeezed margins Net Income 22,584 Petrochem & Refining Avg. A/C GRM decreased 7% BCP and SPRC divestment on Apr 15 & Dec 15 Others P&R PTTEP 2,286 8,044 5,616 2,278 Margin 408 1,756 FX gain Other Income 905 OPEX* 1,027 Share of income 2,081 Int. & CIT exp. 1,847 6,184 3,671 19% 23% 35% Olefins business better from higher HDPE spreads Aromatics improved from spreads margin and volume increase PTTEP Lower avg. price 28% Cash cost reduced 21% Sales vol. increase 4% Gas GSP margin improved from lower feed cost better NGV performance Increased TM performance PTT 6,638 11,967 Q1/15 Q1/16 80% Oil Vol. increased 5% mainly from increased demand from lower retail prices Performance increased from stock gain Trading Margin increased 33% from domestic condensate Vol. decreased 11% from out-out transactions *including petroleum exploration expenses and royalties 6

7 Contents Overview Performance Key takeaways 7

8 E&P : lower performance from continuing decline in oil price, albeit slowering E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others Product Prices Sales Volume Liquid ($/BBL) Weighted Avg. ($/BOE) Gas ($/MMBTU) % QoQ 36% YoY 10% QoQ 28% YoY 3% QoQ 25% YoY KBOED Liquid Gas 2% QoQ 4% YoY MMUSD Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 * Gas price, if excludes Vietnam 16-1 retroactive sale recording, is 8.08$ for 9M14 ** Average selling price, if excludes Vietnam 16-1 retroactive sale recording is 66.24$ for 9M Q1/15 Net Income (100%) Q4/15 1, Q1/16 19% QoQ 36% YoY Recurring NI Non-recurring*** *** Includes Deferred tax from Functional currency, Current Tax from FX Revaluation, Gain/loss from Financial instruments, Gain/(loss)on FX, H1 incident Insurance Claim, and etc Key Highlights QoQ Avg selling price continued to decline, albeit at a slower pace Sales volume decreased slightly from Zawtika s planned shutdown Recurring NI increased due to the absence of $119m tax expenses as in Q4/15 (reversal of DTA), whilst non-recurring NI decreased due to oil hedging loss in Q1/16 vs gain in Q4/15 YoY Avg selling price significantly declined from slump in oil & gas prices Sales volume increased from Algeria s full production NI declined by 36%, mainly due to selling prices 8

9 E&P Strategy: RESET REFOCUS & RENEW Maintain sales volume Bring down unit cost Progressing on predevelopment candidates Mozambique: focus on finalizing commercial agreement Algeria: access resources and development concept 2016 Full year guidance Avg. Gas Price ($/MMBTU) Avg. Sales Vol. (KBOD/D) EBITDA margin (% of Sale Rev.) Unit Cost ($/BOE) Actual Q1 16 Guidance ~ ~ ~65 29 <34 Exploration in new prospective areas Myanmar: conduct 2D/3D seismic surveys Brazil: prepare for 3D seismic survey Evaluate new investment opportunities Near home Near-term producing assets Prospective exploration blocks LNG value chain: evaluate feasibility 8 partnership with PTTEP 9

10 10 PTT EBITDA Breakdown by BU s: (Unit:MMTHB) Business Unit QoQ YoY Gas- EBITDA 9,204 13,769 14,562 6% 58% S&M 2,495 2,626 1,365 (48%) (45%) TM 6,797 6,956 8,431 21% 24% GSP 842 4,372 3,497 (20%) 315% NGV (3,005) (1,913) (937) 51% 69% Others 2,075 1,728 2,206 28% 6% Oil-EBITDA Trading*-EBITDA 4,015 4,066 5,875 44% 46% 740 1,170 1,108 (5%) 50% Total** 13,959 19,005 21,545 13% 54% *MIS ** Included Gas & Oil subsidiaries

11 Gas BU: NG volume decreased from ESP s T/A, while pooled gas price still trailing $/MMBTU NGV Avg. price Vol. MMCFD 8.6 THB/KG K.Ton/Day Fuel Oil* RHS 9.2 Avg. Pooled gas price 8.82 NG Price VS FO LHS * MOPS HSFO 180 CST Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 NGV Price/Sales Volume E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others $/Ton %QoQ %YoY FO 26% 50% Pooled Price 6% 27% % QoQ 4% YoY 2% QoQ 7% YoY MMSCFD 4,832 NG Customer Breakdown 4,696 4, , , ,129 1,075 1,075 Key Highlights 1% QoQ 4% YoY NGV (7%) Industry (15%) GSP (19%) SPP (17%) IPP (19%) EGAT (23%) QoQ Pooled gas cost further declined, but still lagging selling price, linked to fuel oil NG sales volume maintained, notwithstanding Ethane Separation Plant (ESP) s major T/A. Volume partially offset by increases in SPP s and Industry s demand Slightly higher NGV volume due to one added NGV Station in Q1/16 YoY Overall NG sales decreased from ESP s major T/A and less gas called from EGAT/IPP s NGV volume decreased, as a result of price hikes 11

12 Gas BU: Performance continues to improve from GSP & TM margins and less subsidies E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others GSP Feed Cost vs Petroleum price GSP Sales Volume USD/Ton 1,375 1,234 1, , ,188 1,375 1,234 1,153 1,103 %QoQ HDPE %YoY HDPE -4% -7% LPG Ex-GSP -2% -3% Naphtha -24% -32% Feed Cost -0.3% -19% LPG Ex-GSP* Naphtha Feed Cost** 309 kton 1, ,710 1, % QoQ 8% YoY Pentane (1%) Propane (12%) Ethane (30%) NGL (11%) LPG (46%) Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 * Effective on February 2, 2015 ** Revised feed cost calculation from per sale volume to per GSP production volume MMTHB 9,204 2, Gas - EBITDA 13,769 1,728 14,562 2,206 4,372 3,497 6,797 6,956 8,431 2,495 2,626 1,365 (3,005) (1,913) (937) 6% QoQ 58% YoY Others GSP TM S&M NGV Key Highlights QoQ GSP performance dropped as a result of ESP s T/A and margin squeeze from petchem prices declined more than feed cost TM margin improved due to increased Total Demand Charge (TDC) volume from additional customers Gas EBITDA is better notwithstanding ESP s T/A, mainly from improvement in TM and NGV YoY GSP feed cost decline (-19%) more than selling prices (HDPE -7% & LPG -3%) helped boost GSP margin Lower PTT s subsidies on LPG and NGV, as a result of price liberalization Gas EBITDA continued to improve from GSP, TM and NGV 12

13 Gas Business Roadmap E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others LNG Projects LNG onshore Terminal 1 Phase 2: Construction completed 85.63%, COD: 2017 New LNG projects approved by Committee on Energy Policy Administration (CEPA), proposing for National Energy Policy Council (NEPC) approval 1) Terminal 1 capacity enhancement (from 10 MTA to 11.5 MTA) Expansion capacity: 1.5 MTA Budget: 1,000 MB COD: ) LNG Onshore Terminal 2 Capacity: (5 or 7.5 MTA), subject to government energy policy and gulf of Thailand gas supply policy Budget: subject to capacity COD: 2022 Additional LNG projects needed for further studies before submitting for CEPA and NEPC for consideration FSRUs (domestic) LNG onshore Terminal 3 FSRU in Myanmar 13

14 Oil BU: Demand continues to adjust following price liberalization K Tons/day NGV - volume continues to fall from price hikes Avg. Sales Vol. (K.Ton/day) Price (THB/Kg) Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others Change Avg QoQ YoY Price % 4% Vol % -7% M.Ton LPG - demand (automobile) and import fall, following price liberalization Industry Auto Household Import THB/kg Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Change Avg. QoQ YoY Price -6% -13% Total vol. -13% -20% Industry 4% 3% Auto -9% -15% Household -0.3% 0.2% Import -52% -66% Gasoline - demand surged, as a result of price drop Diesel - demand improved following price fall M.Litre 1,500 1, Sales Vol. Export THB/Litre Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Change Avg. QoQ YoY 50 Price -5% -14% Vol. 0 2% 12% Export -3% 19% -50 M.Litre 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Sales vol. THB/Litre ,847 1,858 1,871 1,959 1, Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Change Avg. QoQ YoY Price -7% -21% Vol. (10.00) 5% 6% (20.00) (30.00) (40.00) Export -44% -19% (50.00) 14

15 Oil BU : Better performance mainly from stock gain E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others Petroleum Prices Sales volume 1/ Contribution margin 2/ (Average Prices) USD/BBL LPG (Pool) RHS Gasoline LHS Diesel LHS MMTHB Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Oil - EBITDA QoQ YoY Oil 57% 53% Non-oil 0.2% 18% (Average Prices) USD/ton THB/Liter 0.94 MM Liter 6, , ,677 1 / PTT only 2 / Excluded Non-oil and stock gain/loss Key Highlights 26% QoQ 7% YoY 3% QoQ 5% YoY QoQ Volume slightly increased mainly from lower product prices Contribution margin decreased mainly due to the decline in margin for aviation fuel, gasoline, and diesel Stock Gain/Loss (MMTHB) 5,875 4,015 4,066 3,269 3,185 4, (1,229) (1,657) 687 * EBITDA from Operating Oil Non-Oil* YoY Sales volume significantly increased mainly from lower product prices Slightly lower contribution margins mainly from the decline in margin of aviation fuel Higher EBITDA mainly from stock gain and increase in nonoil (Amazon +20%) 15

16 Trading BU: Margin improved from domestic condensate E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others Contribution Margin* Sales Volume NWS ($/BBL) Dubai ($/BBL) 0.06 Contribution Margin (THB/Liter) % QoQ 26% YoY 25% QoQ 42% YoY 11% QoQ 33% YoY MM Liter 8% QoQ 11% YoY 21,067 20,438 18,823 * PTT only : FX Adjusted * PTT only : FX Adjusted Trading - EBITDA* MMTHB 5% QoQ 50% YoY 1,170 1, Key Highlights QoQ Volume decreased mainly from lower out-out transactions as low seasonal demand in Q1, compared to peak demand in Q4 Margin slightly decreased from lower domestic crude margin, following lower oil price, despite improved condensate margin YoY Sales volume declined, mainly from decline in out-out trading of petroleum products supplied to Indonesia, following Indonesian s policy change since Q2/15 Better contribution margins, mainly from better domestic condensate margins from higher condensate demand 16

17 17 Trading BU: Geographical coverage expansion continues E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others Major Aromatics Products Exporter from India Become a major aromatics products exporter from More than 50% of total export volume from India in some products, via a strong relationship with 4 main producers Create more flexibility on portfolio optimization.

18 Refining BU: Lower GRM and stock loss, while better Aromatics helped E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others Dubai USD/BBL Mkt GRM Stock Gain/Loss A/C GRM* Aggregated Intake (KBD) A/C GIM* GRM/GIM Refinery Utilization 8.15 U-Rate (%) Aggregated U-Rate *A/C GRM and A/C GIM include effect from hedging gain/(loss) QoQ QoQ TOP IRPC YoY A/C GIM 8% 1% YoY 0.2% 2% Aromatics Aromatics Production 66% 85% 80% QoQ YoY BZ 54% 59% USD/Ton PX 15% 30% PX-ULG BZ-ULG95 Net Income (100%) Unit : MMTHB 11,968 QoQ YoY 2,601 SPRC 25% 35% 1,037 BCP 6,170 7,740 3,832 IRPC 3,014 1, ,498 3,749 4,726 TOP Q1/15 17 Q4/15 Q1/16** ** Sold out of BCP and SPRC 18

19 19 Refineries : Strategic Projects update E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB) Successfully COD on 25 Feb 2016 On technical aspect, plant is successfully test run and capable to run up to 120% (at 120 KTA) On commercial aspect, trial cargo has been delivered to customers for quality testing EVEREST Performance : $300m+ Health : top quartile TOP SPP (2blocks of SPP) Successfully COD 1st block of TOP SPP (124MW) on 1 Apr16 2nd block (115 MW): Trial run in late Apr 16 COD on 1 Jun 2016 Overall progress at 99.9%

20 Petrochemical BU: Pressured Refinery & Olefins, despite better Aromatics USD/BBL CDU U-Rate Mkt GRM 102% 99% 93% BTX 88% 66% U-Rate QoQ YoY A/C GRM* Refineries 7.63 E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others A/C GRM 49% 7% USD/Ton BZ-Cond PX-Cond Aromatics 87% QoQ YoY BZ 17% 25% PX 1% 25% Stock Gain/Loss Net NRV Olefins Olefins 96% 97% U-Rate USD/Ton *A/C GRM include effect from hedging gain/(loss) 1,188 1,149 1,153 1, % QoQ 930 YoY HDPE 4% 7% PP 7% 19% Aromatics Mkt P2F Unit : MMTHB Net Income (100%) 6, ,406 1,263 5, QoQ Others HMC Mkt P2F 20% QoQ 8% YoY YoY 1% 21% HDPE Price PP Price 5,631 4,691 4,707 PTTGC

21 Petrochemical : Strategic Projects update Overview Performance Key takeaway E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others 11,000 MTP Retrofit 10,500 10,000 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 Existing Non Captive Upstream and HDI Monomer 70 KTA Phenol II 405 KTA Aromatics 170 KTA HDI Deriv. 12 KTA mlldpe 400 KTA PO/Polyol 250 KTA MTP Retrofit 761 KTA 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F ARO2 Phenol2 HDI Thailand HDI France MLLDPE PO/Polyol MTP Retrofit CAPEX MUSD 345 MUSD 43 MUSD 18 MUSD MUSD TBC TBC Additional PetChem* (per year) PX 115 KTA BZ 35 KTA OX 20 KTA PH 250 KTA AC 155 KTA HDI Derivative 12 KTA HDI Monomer 70 KTA MLLDPE 400 KTA Hexene-1 34 KTA PO 200 KTA Polyol 130 KTA Ethylene 500 KTA Propylene 261 KTA COD May 2016 May 2016 Q3 16 Q Q EBITDA Uplift/Year** 24 MUSD 63 MUSD 9 MUSD 24 MUSD 59 MUSD 100% stake of additional capacity ** Estimate EBITDA uplift with 100% stake at mid cycle price 21

22 Other Businesses : Coal - SAR Continued under pressure from low coal price, despite cost improvements E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others Avg. Selling Price & Cash cost Sales Volume New Castle Avg. Selling Price Cash Costs USD/Ton QoQ YoY 4% 23% 13% 20% 23% 12% kton 2, ,968 1, % QoQ 19% YoY 2,063 Sebuku 617 1,446 Jembayan EBIT Key Highlights MMUSD 2.4x 70% Operating profit 23 (5) 7 (149) (154) Impairment QoQ YoY QoQ Selling price declined by 13%, however, cash cost declined by 23%, from successful negotiations with contractors and reduction in fuel cost, following lower oil price Volume increased, mainly from effort to sell during annual price peak in Q1, following seasonal contract renewal period YoY Sales volume decreased, as coal price dropped from oversupply Performance dropped, mainly from lower coal price, despite reduction in production costs 22

23 Other Businesses : Power - GPSC Outstanding performance, as a result of higher sales and plant/cost optimization E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others GWh 000 Ton Steam Sales Volume 1,233 1,198 QoQ YoY Power 16% Power 6% Steam 10% Steam 7% 1,320 MMBaht Net Income (100%) >100% QoQ 64% YoY 871 Power Committed Capacity Key Highlights Cogen : SPP 29.5% Renewable 2.4% Combined heat: VSPP 0.4% Operating 1,338 MW Combine Cycle : IPP 67.7% Cogen: SPP 36% Renewable 4% Under construction 584 MW Hydro 60% QoQ Higher sales due to higher sales to EGAT and IRPC-CP full operations NI increased, mainly from lower feed cost, plant optimization and dividend income from RPCL (THB 180m in Q1/16) YoY Higher sales, as a result of Rayong Plant s S/D for Minor Inspection in Q1/15 Better NI, due to higher demand and better cost management 23

24 Other Businesses : Power GPSC Growth roadmap 8 committed projects E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others Unit: Equity MW GPSC s Committed Capacity Total Capacity by 2019 Electricity Stream 1,922 MW 1,582 (T/h) 24

25 PTT Consolidated Performance: Q1/2016 Avg. Dubai (USD/BBL) Unit : MMTHB Revenue EBITDA , , ,940 70,742 65,607 71,341 25% QoQ 41% YoY 18% QoQ 25% YoY 9% QoQ 1% YoY 28% 6% 28% Q1/15 Revenue 18% 6% 13% 3% 1% EBITDA 47% 50% P&R PTTEP 29% 6% PTT - Gas P&R PTT - Oil & Trading 29% 9% Q1/16 Others 1% Revenue 20% Others 1% EBITDA 21% PTT - Gas 44% 40% PTT - Oil & Trading PTTEP Net Income/ Operating Performance Operating Performance Net Income Operating Performance 22,584 23,669 23,669 18% QoQ 21,497 20,139 10% YoY Net Income >100% QoQ 25% 5% YoY % Net Income 36% 29% PTTEP P&R Others 16% 26% 8% Net Income 51% PTT 9

26 PTT Group Performance : Q1/2016 (YoY) Unit : MMTHB Performance 100% % PTT holding Equity Method % PTT Q1/15 Q1/16 YoY Q1/15 Q1/16 YoY PTT Net operating Income 6,638 11,967 80% 6,638 11,967 80% E&P - PTTEP 8,616 5,625-35% 65.3% 5,616 3,671-35% - PTTGC 5,631 4,707-16% 49.3% 2,684 2,242-16% - HMC/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC/PTTMCC/PMMA 1, % % Petrochemical 6,908 5,482-21% 3,304 2,572-22% - TOP 4,498 4,726 5% 49.1% 2,217 2,366 7% - IRPC 3,832 3,014-21% 38.5% 1,571 1,246-21% - SPRC 2, % 5.41%* % - BCP 1, % 0%** % Refining 11,968 7,740-35% 4,740 3,612-24% Inter - PTTER, PTTGE % 100% % Gas - PTTLNG/PTTNGD/ TTM(T)/ TTM (M) 1,071 1,349 26% 1,042 1,228 18% Utilities -GPSC/ TP/ DCAP 854 1,311 54% % Oil & Oth. - PTTT/SBECL/THAPPLINE/PTTRB/PTTANK/Others 1,499 1,060-29% 1, % Others Business 2,894 3,372 17% 2,287 1,847-19% Shared of Net Income from Affiliates 30,386 22,219-27% 15,947 11,702-27% PTT Conso. Net Income 37,024 34,186-8% 22,585 23,669 5% *SPRC before disposed = 36%, **BCP divested in April

27 Statement of Financial Position MMTHB 1,805,041 1,818,746 2,173, % 2,176,738 Assets slightly increased : Rise in cash and cash equivalents mainly from operating cash inflow Decrease in A/R & A/P due to lower in product price Cash & S/T Invest Other Current Assets Others Noncurrent Assets 346, , , , , , , , , ,929 Other Liabilities L/T Liabilities (incl. due within 1 yr) Net Debt/EBITDA Net Debt/Equity (0.1) YE15 Q1/ PP&E 1,118,677 1,087,687 1,112,094 1,110,345 Total Equity PTT Ratings at Sovereign Level FC : Moody s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+), JCR (A-), FITCH (BBB+) 1 31 Dec Mar Sep LC : Moody s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+), JCR (A), FITCH (A-) 27

28 Statements of Consolidated Cash Flows : Q1/16 Operating Q1/15 104,337 Q1/16 76,345 Net Income 22,584 23,669 Changes in assets & liabilities 43,082 7,992 Income Tax (2,037) (2,549) Non-Cash Adjustment 40,708 47,233 Investing Q1/15 (87,624) Q1/16 (62,819) CAPEX (PP&E, Intangible asset) (46,059) (32,540) Investment (Sub. &Affiliates) (568) (245) Current investment (44,046) (29,481) Dividend/Interest Received 1,276 1,217 Others 1,773 (1,770) Free Cash flow 16,713 13,526 Adjustment Financing (26,963) (8,008) Repayment Loans (12,858) (12,869) Interest paid (7,835) (7,074) Dividend paid (0) (330) Received from share issue Received from loans/bonds (6,383) 12,265 Others - - 1,018 4,337 Beginning Cash and Cash Equivalents Cash In/(Out) Ending Cash & Cash Equivalents 234, ,978 (9,232) 9, , ,833 28

29 29 Contents Overview Performance Key takeaways

30 Summary: Y Forecast Business Y2015 Q1/2016 Y2016(E) VS Q1/2016 Reason Gas Price ($/mmbtu) - Henry Hub - JKM Oil Price ($/bbl) Dubai Price Range Range US export LNG (Sabine Pass LNG) Higher supply and weak demand in North Asia Decline in US oil output in 2H16 but oversupply condition remains Refinery Margin ($/bbl) Singapore GRM Range 6-7 Lower Gasoline crack due to high inventory & slow demand during winter season in Q4 Lower Fuel Oil crack due to weak demand in Japan and reduced Chinese import Petrochemical ($/ton) - Olefins (HDPE, PP) - Aromatics (PX, BZ) HDPE-Naphtha =746 PP Naphtha = 645 PX-Naphtha = 353 BZ-Naphtha = 195 HDPE-Naphtha =762 PP Naphtha = 569 PX-Naphtha = 410 BZ-Naphtha = 233 HDPE-Naphtha = 798 PP Naphtha = 649 PX-Naphtha = 388 BZ-Naphtha = 223 Olefins Supply tight during Turnaround season in Q2 Supported by seasonal demand Aromatics More supply in 2H after plant resumption from unplanned /planned shutdown 30

31 31 Key Takeaways Q1/2016 Oil price bottom out & NG further decline Operating results mostly improved with no impairment Cost reduction relieved PTTEP and Coal performance Lower gas feed cost help improve gas performance NGV price restructuring Enhanced Oil performance from stock gain Looking Forward Global economy slowdown Oil price to remain low at a level of $/bbl from ME production Feed gas cost expected to be further declined Refineries seasonal maintenance in Q2 Petrochemical prices tend to improve from tight supply Pressured refineries and olefins performance despite aromatics Power business improve from sales volume

32 32 Thank you PTT Public Company Limited Investor Relations Department Tel , Fax , ir@pttplc.com Website: Disclaimer The information contained in our presentation is intended solely for your personal reference only. In addition, such information contains projections and forward-looking statements that reflect our current views with respect to future events and financial performance. These views are based on assumptions subject to various risks and uncertainties. No assurance is given that future events will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that our assumptions are correct. Actual results may differ materially from those projected. Petroleum Reserves and Resources Information In this presentation, the Company discloses petroleum reserves and resources that are not included in the Securities Exchange and Commission of Thailand (SEC) Annual Registration Statement Form 56-1 under Supplemental Information on Petroleum Exploration and Production Activities. The reserves and resources data contained in this presentation reflects the Company s best estimates of its reserves and resources. While the Company periodically obtains an independent audit of a portion of its proved reserves, no independent qualified reserves evaluator or auditor was involved in the preparation of reserves and resources data disclosed in this presentation. Unless stated otherwise, reserves and resources are stated at the Company s gross basis. This presentation may contain the terms proved reserves, probable reserves, and/or contingent resources. Unless stated otherwise, the Company adopts similar description as defined by the Society of Petroleum Engineers. Proved Reserves - Proved reserves are defined as those quantities of petroleum which, by analysis of geological and engineering data, can be estimated with reasonable certainty to be commercially recoverable, from a given date forward, from known reservoirs and under current economic conditions, operating methods, and government regulations. Probable Reserves - Probable reserves are defined as those unproved reserves which analysis of geological and engineering data suggests are more likely than not to be recoverable. Contingent Resources Contingent resources are defined as those quantities of petroleum which are estimated, on a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations, but which are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable. The reasons for non commerciality could be economic including market availability, political, environmental, or technological. 31

33 PTT: CAPEX (PTT and Wholly Owned Subsidiaries) PTT plans to invest ~Bt 297bn* ($8bn) during Unit: MMTHB Growth 30% Infrastructure Investment in JV and its subs Head Office and Others Oil and International Trading Natural Gas 89,085 By Strategy Green 1% 2, ,595 50,839 19,619 * budget approved by BOD at YE2015 CAPEX Breakdown : 5 Years Energy Infrastructure 69% 32,983 JV & Investment in Subsidiaries 23% 34,649 M&A and Oversea investment 8% Oil & Trading 8% 67,514 68,517 58,306 46,042 Gas 13% 10,967 17,607 1,817 7, ,106 13,245 13,586 5, ,121 10,850 4, ,191 6,619 3,272 5,698 5, By Business Unit LNG 15% R&D, Others 1% 51,473 29,008 5 th pipeline & extension LNG, M&A and Investment Oversea Infrastructure 55% 33

34 34 Statements of Cash Flows (PTT Only) : Q1/16 Operating Q1/15 18,806 Q1/16 21,480 Investing Q1/15 (19,403) Q1/16 (29,743) Net Income 12,083 18,282 Changes in assets & liabilities (502) (382) Income Tax (821) 137 Non-Cash Adjustment 8,046 3,443 CAPEX (PP&E, Intangible asset) (300) (39) Investment (Sub. &Affiliates) (10,313) (21,241) Current investment (8,643) (5,584) Dividend/Interest Received Others (692) (3,427) Free Cash flow (597) (8,263) Financing (8,378) (4,047) Repayment Loans (6,645) (1,643) Interest paid (2,555) (2,739) Dividend paid 0 0 Received from share issue 0 0 Received from loans/bonds Adjustment (60) 13 Beginning Cash and Cash Equivalents Cash In/(Out) Ending Cash & Cash Equivalents 58,018 67,525 (9,035) (12,297) 33 48,983 55,228

35 PTT Group Performance : Q1/2016 (QoQ) Unit : MMTHB Performance 100% % PTT holding Equity Method % PTT Q4/15 Q1/16 QoQ Q4/15 Q1/16 QoQ PTT Net operating Income 9,044 11,967 32% 9,044 11,967 32% E&P - PTTEP 4,694 5,625 20% 65.3% 3,070 3,671 20% - PTTGC 4,691 4,707 0% 49.3% 2,256 2,242-1% - HMC/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC/PTTMCC/PMMA % % Petrochemical 5,406 5,482 1% 2,505 2,572 3% - TOP 3,749 4,726 26% 49.1% 2,038 2,366 16% - IRPC 447 3, % 38.5% 263 1, % - SPRC 1, % 5.41%* % - BCP - - #DIV/0! 0%** - 0 #DIV/0! Refining 6,170 7,740 25% 2,858 3,612 26% Inter - PTTER, PTTGE -18, % 100% -18, % Gas - PTTLNG/PTTNGD/ TTM(T)/ TTM (M) 1,911 1,349-29% 1,487 1,228-17% Utilities -GPSC/ TP/ DCAP 377 1, % % Oil & Oth. - PTTT/SBECL/THAPPLINE/PTTRB/PTTANK/Others 270 1, % % Others Business -15,801 3, % -16,874 1, % Shared of Net Income from Affiliates , % -8,441 11, % PTT Conso. Net Income 9,098 34, % , % *SPRC before disposed = 36%, **BCP divested in April

36 36 Debt Profile : Control Cost & Manage Risk Managed debt according to financial risk and policy Debt Portfolio Unit : MMTHB PTT Only Consolidated : Cost of debts ~ 4.58% : % fixed-rate ~ 73% : Avg. debt life ~ 8.18 years : Cost of debts ~ 4.45% : % fixed-rate ~ 70% : Avg. debt life ~ 7.29 years USD&Other THB 689, ,127 (44%) 625, , , ,621 (41%) (40%) 288,545 83,985 (29%) 265, ,078 81,154 80,495 (31%) 204, , ,583 (71%) (69%) (31%) (69%) 384, , ,696 (56%) (59%) (60%) 31 Dec Dec Mar Dec Dec Mar Note : Data as of 31 Mar 16 (THB/USD = THB/JPY = ) Excluding liabilities from finance leases; Cost of debts includes withholding tax. Cost of debts, % fixed rate, and avg. debt life took into account the derivative transactions. Debt outstanding is reconciled with accounting.

37 Data as of 31 March 2016 E&P and Gas Business Group Oil Business Group Petrochemicals & Refining Business Group Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT Exploration & Production Plc. PTTEP 65.29% PTT Natural Gas Distribution Co., Ltd. PTTNGD 58.00% PTT LNG Co., Ltd. PTTLNG % Thai Oil Power Co., Ltd.* TP 26.00% Global Power Synergy Co., Ltd* GPSC 22.58% Joint Ventures Equity Trans Thai-Malaysia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. TTM (T) 50.00% Trans Thai-Malaysia (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. TTM (M) 50.00% District Cooling System and Power Plant DCAP 35.00% Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT (Cambodia) Co., Ltd. PTTCL % PTT Retail Business Co., Ltd. PTTRB % Thai Lube Blending Co., Ltd. TLBC** 48.95% PTT Tank Terminal Co., Ltd. PTTTANK % PTT Oil Myanmar Co., Ltd. PTTOM % Associates Equity Keloil-PTT LPG Sdn. Bhd. KPL 40.00% Thai Petroleum Pipeline Co., Ltd.THAPPLINE 40.40% PetroAsia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. PA(Thailand) 35.00% Others Cost PetroAsia (Maoming) Co., Ltd. PA(Maoming) 20.00% PetroAsia (Sanshui) Co., Ltd. PA(Sanshui) 25.00% Intoplane Services Co., Ltd. IPS 16.67% Fuel Pipeline Transportation Co., Ltd.FPT % Others Fair Value Bangkok Aviation Fuel Services Plc. BAFS 7.06% Petrochemical Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT Polymer Marketing Co., Ltd. PTTPM 50.00% PTT Polymer Logistics Co., Ltd. PTTPL**50.00% PTT PMMA Co., Ltd. PTTPMMA % PTT Global Chemical Plc.* PTTGC 49.42% PTT Maintenance and Engineering* PTTME 40.00% PTT Energy Solutions Co., Ltd.* PTTES 40.00% Joint Ventures Equity HMC Polymers Co., Ltd. HMC 41.44% PTT Asahi Chemical Co., Ltd. PTTAC 48.50% PTT MCC Biochem Co., Ltd. PTTMCC 50.00% Refining Subsidiaries Consolidate Thai Oil Plc.* TOP 49.10% IRPC Plc.* IRPC 38.51% Refining Associates Equity Star Petroleum Refining Co., Ltd. SPRC 5.41% International Trading Business Group International Investment Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT International Trading Pte. PTTT % Others Subsidiaries Consolidate PTT Energy Resources Co., Ltd. PTTER % PTT Green Energy Pte. Ltd PTTGE % Subsidiaries Consolidate Others Fair Value Energy Complex Co., Ltd. EnCo 50.00% Dhipaya Insurance Plc. TIP 13.33% Business Service Alliance Co., Ltd. BSA * 25.00% PTT Regional Treasury Center Pte. Ltd. PTTRTC % PTT ICT Solutions Co., Ltd.* PTTICT 20.00% 36 Remark : *The companies have changed their status to subsidiaries due to impact from PACK5 ** Subsidiaries that PTT holds less than 50% but being consolidated because PTT has the power to control the financial and operating policies. 37

38 Natural Gas Price Structure : Jan-Mar 2016 Gas prices are mostly agreed under long-term contracts and volatility pass-through to ensure stable returns. Customers Sales Price Structure Gas Pool Price + Supply Margins + Pipeline Tariffs Power Producers 60% : EGAT 23% : IPP 19% : SPP 18% GSP 20% Average Purchased Gas Price 1.75% * 1.75% * 9.33% * Charged at the same price structure of power producers 21.9 Bt/MMBtu * EGAT IPP and SPP Supply Margins not more than and respectively Petrochemicals Feedstocks Ethane, Propane, LPG NGL Local Cooking Gas Export Cooking Gas Industry 14% NGV 6% Profit-sharing mechanism based on market prices of petrochemicals Reference to Naphtha market price At GSPs cost (adjusted every 3 months) Reference to Saudi Aramco s contract price Charged at prices comparable to fuel oil 21 Jan -15 Jul 2016: Capped at Baht/Kg. If cost is less than Baht/Kg, retail price will be set to reflect the cost. Contract periods are ~ years or until depletion of gas fields or the expiration of concessions 37 38

39 Natural Gas : A steadily growth of natural gas upon Government fuel diversification policy for power generation Gas demand forecast (CAGR during ) : Total ~ 0.3% : Power ~ 1% : GSP ~ -3% : Industry ~ 2% : NGV ~ -1% Source : PTT 39

40 Thailand s Projected Energy Demand Primary Energy Consumption KBD 3, Hydro/Import 2% ,494 2, % Renewable 26% % 20% 12% 37% 2% 20% 14% 35% 4.1% 3.0% 1.7% Coal/Lignite Natural Gas 15% 32% % 29% 1.4% Oil 25% 0 Source : EPPO/ DEDE/ PDP 2015/ PTT analysis as of May

41 41 Gas Business Generates Stable Returns Overview Gas transmission pipeline capacity Sole owner and operator of entire gas transmission pipelines in Thailand (~ 4,000 km), a regulated business IRROE ranges between 12.5% - 18% for transmission pipeline investment Supply & marketing of natural gas provides fixed margin with long-term contracts of years 6 Gas Separation Plants; Total production 6.7 MTA; are on petrochemical market price-linked profit sharing basis

42 42