The yield on 10-Year U.S. Treasuries was little changed during the month, down five basis points to 2.63% as of January 31.
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1 January 2019 Commentary Diversified Real Assets Securities Strategy MARKET REVIEW Global equities rose 7.8% in January, recouping some of the losses incurred during the tumultuous fourth quarter of By region, North America, Europe and Asia Pacific rose 8.5%, 6.6% and 6.5%, respectively. It was the largest one-month gain for the index since October In the U.S., the S&P 500 Index posted a total return of 8.0%, also its best monthly gain since October Markets appeared to be buoyed by a more dovish tone from the U.S. Federal Reserve around monetary tightening. In its January statement, the Federal Open Market Committee indicated it will be patient in determining future adjustments to the target range of the federal funds rate. 1 Optimism around trade talks between the U.S. and China also improved sentiment. 2 Despite improved market optimism globally, the negative impacts of the ongoing trade dispute between the U.S. and China are appearing in some markets across the world. In Europe, for example, the IHS Markit Eurozone PMI Composite Output Index fell for the fifth consecutive month, to its lowest level in more than five years. 3 And in Asia, China reported its economy grew 6.6% in 2018, the slowest pace in 28 years. 4 In the U.S., however, the pace of growth in the manufacturing sector accelerated in January from the prior month. 5 The yield on 10-Year U.S. Treasuries was little changed during the month, down five basis points to 2.63% as of January 31. Real Estate Equities The FTSE EPRA Nareit Developed Index rose 10.9% in January, recovering losses incurred in December. By region, North America, Europe and Asia Pacific rose 11.7%, 10.8% and 9.4%, respectively. All U.S. property types were positive, led by Industrial (+15.4%), followed by Office (+14.3%), Mixed (+13.3%), Healthcare (+12.9%), Hotels (+12.7%), Retail (+11.1%), Diversified (+10.4%), Residential (+10.3%) and Self Storage (+6.4%). 6 Infrastructure Equities The Dow Jones Brookfield Global Infrastructure Index rose 9.4% and the FTSE Global Core Infrastructure 50/50 Index was up 7.9% in January. Within the Dow Jones Brookfield Global Infrastructure Index, all regions were positive, with the Americas up 6.3%, Europe advancing 2.9% and Asia Pacific gaining 0.7%. By sector, Communications was up 8.7%, followed by Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation (+7.5%), Water (+7.4%), Ports (+5.5%), Diversified (+3.2%), Airports (+2.7%) and Toll Roads (+0.1%). Only Electricity Transmission & Distribution ( 4.2%), posted a decline, as PG&E Corporation (PCG, Electricity Transmission & Distribution, U.S.) weighed on overall returns. The Alerian MLP Index rose 12.6% during the month Sector returns represented by the U.S. portion of the FTSE EPRA/Nareit Developed North America Index
2 Fixed Income The ICE BofAML Global High Yield Index rose 4.1% and the ICE BofAML Global Corporate Index advanced 2.2% during the month. ASSET CLASS OUTLOOK Real Estate Equities Despite increased expectations that growth may slow in the coming years, the U.S. economy remains healthy and is expected to outperform developed market peers. We do not believe a recession is imminent, but we see elevated risks that growth is likely to slow. As such, we have positioned the portfolio toward what we believe to be more conservative holdings. Within real estate, supply and demand appear relatively well balanced across most property types, and we are seeing inflationary rental growth. Leverage ratios have declined to the lowest levels ever recorded. In addition, many real estate companies have extended their average debt maturities to lock in lower-forlonger interest expenses moving forward. Our preference for companies with strong balance sheets is unchanged and we remain focused on companies with below average levels of leverage. We believe this is important from a portfolio construction standpoint in the current environment as companies with low leverage are likely to perform better if we experience a downturn in the current business cycle. Despite the rebound in real estate equities in January, we still believe valuations remain compelling. We still see opportunities within multifamily residential real estate. New supply appears muted and jobs growth (which is a demand driver for apartments) remains strong. We are seeing attractive discounts to net asset value (NAV) in the Office sector. In particular, we see compelling opportunities in some West Coast and Sunbelt markets. Conversely, we see fewer opportunities across the broader U.S. Retail sector. Our holdings are focused on what we believe to be the highest quality companies that operate in the most attractive markets. We are also less constructive within the Industrial sector amid lofty valuations and supply concerns. Outside the U.S., we continue to see value in Japan, where we believe Japanese developers present attractive valuations on an absolute basis, as well as in relation to their J-REIT counterparts. We specifically like developers focused on the Tokyo office market, where demand is strong for new buildings. Elsewhere in Asia, we are cautious about Hong Kong, particularly the residential market given the tightening of China s capital controls that have impacted property ownership, as well as uncertainty surrounding the ongoing U.S. trade conflict with China. We continue to be positive on the U.K. market, despite the continued uncertainty on the Brexit resolution although we have reduced retail exposure in favor of office properties where we still see good leasing demand. We have also begun to increase exposure in some Continental European markets as valuations have improved. As volatility increased in the fourth quarter of 2018, global real estate securities meaningfully outperformed global equities. We believe this relative outperformance highlights the importance of a strategic allocation to real estate equities, which may have the potential to offer some downside protection and an attractive level of income generation amid broader market volatility. Infrastructure Equities Fundamentals within energy infrastructure are largely unchanged and remain positive. We therefore remain optimistic and believe the underperformance of the sector in 2018 increased the attractiveness of valuations. Given the volatility within commodity markets, we recently adjusted our holdings away from companies whose cash flows tend to be more sensitive to commodity price changes. In our view, recent take-private transactions highlight the value that exists within the midstream energy sector. We also remain encouraged by the pace at which corporate governance structures are improving and shifting toward models that are less reliant on equity markets to fund growth. Page 2
3 We maintain our preference for utilities exposed to low-cost renewables generation, as well as those located in favorable regulatory environments. Regulatory risk remains a concern for us among Chinese utilities, where regulatory changes can be swift and unexpected. We have seen select opportunities emerge, however, as these stocks have sold off in recent months. Despite some potential political risk associated with select European utilities, we have recently added some exposure where we believe company-specific catalysts present attractive risk-adjusted opportunities. Overall traffic trends in Europe remain favorable, where we prefer toll roads over airports. We recently took a more positive view on select toll roads in Brazil after meeting with management teams, in addition to the greater clarity in the market amid the election outcome. The new administration s pro-business stance has improved our outlook for the economy. Conversely, we reduced our exposure to Mexico after the election of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who announced the cancellation of the partially completed $13 billion airport in Mexico City. We have shifted our holdings among U.S. communication tower companies toward those we view to be more defensive in nature. Among satellite operators, we are monitoring developments around the C-band spectrum. The U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) is considering repurposing a portion of that spectrum for next-generation 5G services; and we continue to evaluate the value of these spectrum rights. Given the recent volatility across global equity markets, we believe infrastructure assets are well positioned to generate attractive relative returns. These long-lived assets, which are natural monopolies with significant barriers to entry, tend to be highly cash generative with stable and visible cash flows. As such, they have historically been shown to exhibit positive relative performance when volatility is present and broader equities decline. Fixed Income Our outlook is little changed from last month. While spreads tightened in January, they remain near their long-term average and with U.S. Treasury yields elevated from unusually low levels, we believe investors are adequately compensated for today's credit risk. We continue to prefer high-yield corporate bonds as offering the best risk/return tradeoff, as we are concerned with the deterioration in investment-grade credit. Additionally, we have seen robust activity in the leveraged loan market, which has exhibited more concerning late-cycle issuance than the bond market. OVERALL OUTLOOK Listed real asset equities meaningfully outperformed broader equities in the fourth quarter equity market sell off. We believe this speaks to the defensive characteristics of real assets, with infrastructure providing essential services and real estate benefitting from the stability of long term leases. It also highlights the potential investment benefits of a dedicated real assets allocation, which can provide downside protection, along with attractive income as markets decline. From a macroeconomic perspective, our projections for global growth have been adjusted modestly lower. Notable headwinds are global trade policies, Brexit, Italy and potentially slowing growth in China. We believe the U.S. economy is fundamentally strong and likely to lead developed economies, while growth in China is likely dependent on the success of government stimulus. Recent data suggest that inflation is likely to be lower than previously anticipated. We see potential inflationary pressures from U.S. stimulus, China stimulus and tariffs. Conversely, deflationary pressures are likely to include declining oil prices, a stable U.S. labor market and slowing U.S. home price appreciation. During the month we slightly increased our allocation to Real Asset Debt and decreased our exposure to Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) and REIT Preferreds. We maintain overweight positions within Real Asset Debt, Global Infrastructure Equities and MLPs. Conversely, we are underweight Global Real Estate Equities and REIT Preferreds. Page 3
4 Disclosures As of February Brookfield Public Securities Group LLC. Brookfield Public Securities Group LLC is an SEC-registered investment adviser and represents the Public Securities platform of Brookfield Asset Management Inc. ( BAM ), providing global listed real assets strategies including real estate equities, infrastructure equities, multi-strategy real asset solutions and real asset debt. Brookfield Public Securities Group LLC is a wholly owned subsidiary of BAM. The information in this commentary is not and is not intended as investment advice or prediction of investment performance. This information is deemed to be from reliable sources; however, Brookfield does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. This commentary is not intended to and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security, product or service (nor shall any security, product or service be offered or sold) in any jurisdiction in which Brookfield is not licensed to conduct business, and/or an offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unavailable or unlawful. Performance shown in USD unless otherwise noted. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Opinions expressed herein are current opinions of Brookfield Public Securities Group LLC and are subject to change without notice. The mention of specific securities is not a recommendation or solicitation for any person to buy, sell or hold any particular security. Any outlooks or forecasts presented herein are as of the date appearing on this material only and are also subject to change without notice. Each fund, account and investment vehicle in this strategy is managed individually. No assurance that any specific fund, separate account or other investment vehicle managed by Brookfield Public Securities Group LLC has previously or currently holds the names referenced herein. There is no guarantee that the specific securities discussed herein or held by any specific fund, account, or other investment vehicle managed by Brookfield Public Securities Group LLC were profitable or will be profitable. Information herein contains, includes or is based upon forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws, specifically Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Forward-looking statements include all statements, other than statements of historical fact, that address future activities, events, or developments, including without limitation, business or investment strategy or measures to implement strategy, competitive strengths, goals, expansion and growth of our business, plans, prospects and references to our future success. You can identify these statements by the fact that they do not relate strictly to historical or current facts. Words such as anticipate, estimate, expect, project, intend, plan, believe, and other similar words are intended to identify these forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements can be affected by inaccurate assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. Many such factors will be important in determining our actual future results or outcomes. Consequently, no forward-looking statement can be guaranteed. Our actual results or outcomes may vary materially. Given these uncertainties, you should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. INDEX PROVIDER DISCLAIMER Brookfield Public Securities Group LLC does not own or participate in the construction, or day-to-day management of the indices referenced in this document. The index information provided is for your information only and does not imply or predict that a Brookfield Public Securities Group LLC product will achieve similar results. This information is subject to change without notice. The Indices referenced in this document do not reflect any fees, expenses, sales charges, or taxes. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. The index sponsors permit use of their indices and related data on an "As Is" basis, makes no warranties regarding same, does not guarantee the suitability, quality, accuracy, timeliness, and/ or completeness of their index or any data included in, related to, or derived therefrom, assumes no liability in connection with the use of the foregoing. The index sponsors have no liability for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential, or other damages (including loss profits). The index sponsors do not sponsor, endorse, or recommend Brookfield Public Securities Group LLC or any of its products or services. Page 4
5 For Institutional Use Only and may not be reproduced, shown, quoted to, or used with members of the public. Definitions The MSCI World Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets. The FTSE EPRA/Nareit Developed Index is a free-float adjusted, liquidity, size and revenue screened index designed to track the performance of listed real estate companies and REITs worldwide. The FTSE EPRA/NAREIT North America Index is designed to track the performance of listed real estate companies and REITS in North American markets (US and Canada). The FTSE Global Core Infrastructure 50/50 Index gives participants an industry-defined interpretation of infrastructure and adjusts the exposure to certain infrastructure sub-sectors. The constituent weights are adjusted as part of the semi-annual review according to three broad industry sectors - 50% Utilities, 30% Transportation including capping of 7.5% for railroads/railways and a 20% mix of other sectors including pipelines, satellites and telecommunication towers. Company weights within each group are adjusted in proportion to their investable market capitalization The Dow Jones Brookfield Global Infrastructure Index is calculated and maintained by S&P Dow Jones Indices and comprises infrastructure companies with at least 70% of their annual cash flows derived from the owning and operating infrastructure assets. The Alerian MLP Index is a composite of the 50 most prominent energy master limited partnerships ("MLPs") calculated by Standard & Poor's using a float-adjusted market-capitalization methodology. The index is disseminated by the New York Stock Exchange real-time on a price return basis (NYSE: AMZ) and on a total-return basis. The S&P 500 Total Return Index is the total return version of S&P 500 Index. Dividends are reinvested on a daily basis and the base date for the index is January 1, All regular cash dividends are assumed reinvested in the S&P 500 Index on the ex-date. Special cash dividends trigger a price adjustment in the price return index. The U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note is a debt obligation issued by the United States government that matures in 10 years and pays interest at a fixed rate once every six months and pays the face value to the holder at maturity. The ICE BofA Merrill Lynch Global High Yield Index tracks the performance of below investment-grade, U.S. dollar-denominated corporate bonds publicly issued in the U.S. domestic market, and includes issues with a credit rating of BBB or below, as rated by Moody's and S&P. The ICE BofA Merrill Lynch Global Corporate Index tracks the performance of investment- grade public debt issued in the major domestic and eurobond markets, including global bonds. Page 5
The yield on 10-Year U.S. Treasuries rose nine basis points, to 2.72% on February 28, 2019.
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