ANZ s annual European investor update

Transcription

1 ANZ s annual European investor update January 2011 AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED Graham Hodges, Deputy CEO David Goode, Head of Debt IR

2 Strategy

3 ANZ is structured by Geography & Segment Asia Pacific, Europe & America (APEA) Retail (including partnerships) Wealth Commercial (emerging) Institutional Australia Retail Wealth Commercial Institutional New Zealand Retail Wealth Commercial Institutional Institutional is a global business 3

4 Good progress on Super Regional strategy RESTORE Institutional back to system Restore jaws increase revenue faster than costs Drive Asia profit Capture existing opportunities Strategic cost management OUT PERFORM Quality on par with global leaders in our markets Best of breed customer experience In-fill mergers and acquisitions in Asia (core geographies) Unlock the value of our franchise TRANSFORM Create a leading Super Regional bank Global quality, regional focus 1 to 2 years 2 to 5 years 5+ years Why a Super Regional Strategy? There are 3 compelling reasons : 1. High growth region 2. Increasing connectivity between Asia, Australia and New Zealand 3. Strengthen and broaden the group s balance sheet and funding profile 4

5 Building our presence to take advantage of the strong growth in the region Franchise Markets Core markets for Institutional, Commercial, Retail & Wealth Greater China Greater Mekong 1 India Indonesia Malaysia Pacific Franchise Network Hubs Singapore Institutional Network markets Network markets are crucial to delivering pan-regional integrated solutions to clients Korea Japan Philippines Thailand 1. Focus on Vietnam Regional Business Hubs Hong Kong UAE Europe America 5 India (1) Malaysia Singapore (6) Indonesia (28) () - Number of branches and representative offices in each country Greater China (33) Greater Mekong (31) Pacific (60)

6 Increasing intra-regional trade and investment flows Denotes two way trade flow (2008) FDI inward flow (USDb, 2008) Asia 1 -Europe Trade: US$1.1trn CN 108 TW 5 Asia 1 -USA Trade: US$1.0trn IND 42 VN 8 HK 63 Pacific-Asia 1 Trade: US$7b Intra-Asia 1 Trade: US$2.5trn INDON 8 Aus/NZ-Pacific Trade: US$5b Aus/NZ-Asia 1 Trade: US$235b 1. Asia includes China, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Vietnam Data source: UN Comtrade database; country statistics; ADB website; press searches; Datamonitor, McKinsey Global Banking Pools, APRA, CEIC 6

7 Strong savings coupled with economic growth is building large liquidity pools which will diversify our funding base Growth of wealth and liquidity in Asia Growth of wealth and liquidity in Asia Liquidity in Asia 2 No. of wealthy individuals 1 (m) CAGR 11.5% 6.4% 7.5% 12.6% 0.3% Current Account Surplus USDm % GDP System Loan/Deposit Ratio China 431, Hong Kong 18, % Deposits (USDb) 17,605 22,901 CAGR 12.6% 5.9% 10.3% 13.9% 0.2% Taiwan 42, Japan 141, Korea 42, Singapore 32, Indonesia 10, Malaysia 31, Philippines 8, Thailand 20, Wealthy individuals: AuM>US$60k+ for developing countries and AuM>US$100k+ for developed countries 2. Source - ANZ Economics 7

8 Recent developments in the Australian banking sector Senate enquiry into the level of competition in the banking sector in Australia. The final report is expected in March 2011 with the Government to respond to the recommendations within 6 months. The Government is focused on increasing competition via measures such as ; Facilitating switching between banks Eliminating certain fees and charges (eg exit fees, ATM fees) Covered Bonds to be introduced in Australia Further Government support of the RMBS market to support smaller lenders Facilitate the development of a liquid retail bond market by launching exchange trading of Government Securities The increased Liquid asset requirements for Australian banks under Basle III to be satisfied by way of a committed facility with the RBA backed by repo eligible securities 8

9 2010 Full Year Results

10 Overview of financial performance Consolidated Group performance Underlying performance H10 A$m Growth Growth Revenue 15, % + 9% Expense 6, % +15% Profit before provisions 8,811 +6% +4% Provisions 1,820-40% -34% Net Profit After Tax 5, % +19% Underlying EPS (cents) % +18% Statutory Profit 4, % +34% Dividend per share (cents) % Loans and Deposits Customer Deposits 257, % +8% Net Loans and Advances 1 360,816 +4% +4% 1. Including acceptances 10

11 ANZ has continued to invest for growth notwithstanding recent tougher economic conditions Revenue and Expenses Net Profit by region 8% 9% 8% 6% 12% 10% 17% 12% Pro Forma Basis 1 7% 8% FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 Revenue Expenses Provision charges Net Profit after tax 2 1. Pro forma basis assumes ING Australia and New Zealand, Landmark and Royal bank of Scotland Asia acquisitions took effect from 1 October 2008 and also adjusts for exchange rate movements which have impacted the FY10 results. 2. FY06-07 presented on a cash basis, FY08-10 presented on an underlying basis adjusted to reflect the ongoing operations of the Group. 11

12 2010 results - putting the runs on the board A$b Underlying profit 1 Underlying earnings as a % of Group APEA 14% AUSTRALIA 72% NEW ZEALAND 14% 1. For 2008 to 2010, Underlying profit measure. For 2006 and 2007 Cash profit measure, superseded by Underlying Profit from

13 Divisional performance 2010 Divisional Profit Before Provisions (Pro Forma basis) AUD m H10 growth Australia 4,460 11% 2% Institutional 3,173 (4%) 1 (1%) NZD m NZ Businesses 1,343 2% 8% USD m APEA 915 1% (3%) 2010 Divisional Net Profit After Tax (Pro Forma basis) AUD m H10 growth Australia 2,737 26% 9% Institutional 1,758 29% 13% NZD m NZ Businesses % 74% USD m APEA % 21% growth 2010 reduction 1. Growth of 12% ex Markets fx adjusted 13

14 NIM movement FY10 vs FY09 bps Up 16.1 bps Key Drivers of Movement Funding & Asset Mix 14.4 Funding mix benefit from higher capital and reduced reliance on wholesale funding. Asset mix improvement from a reduction in lower margin global institutional lending Funding Costs (10.8) Impact of higher average cost of wholesale funding Deposits (16.1) Largely driven by deposit competition in Australia and New Zealand. Some additional mix impact in Australia from a shift to lower margin deposit products Assets 36.6 Improved asset margins in global institutional and New Zealand businesses. Some mix benefit in continued migration of fixed rate mortgages to variable rates in New Zealand 14

15 Provisions down significantly and trending back to expected longer term averages Total Provision Charge (IP charge by Division and total CP charge) Provision charge back to expected loss levels A$m 1, Expected Range 15

16 Individual Provision Charge Individual Provision (IP) Charge by Segment A$m IP Charge Movement Composition A$m IP Charge by Region A$m 16

17 Balance Sheet

18 Group loans and deposits Group Customer Deposits Group Net Loans and Advances (including acceptances) Growth A$b % 13% 13% 11% % 15% (1%) 4% A$b Includes Wealth and Other 18

19 Diversified lending portfolio, weighted to secured mortgage portfolio Net Loans and Advances (including acceptances) by product line (A$b) (A$b) (A$b) Includes Wealth. 19

20 ANZ s strong capital ratios are fully reflected when measured consistently across various jurisdictions Sep 09 Mar 10 Sep 10 FSA Sep 10 Core Tier 1 (1) 9.0% 8.5% 8.0% 11.3% Tier % 10.7% 10.1% 13.5% Total Capital 13.7% 13.0% 11.9% 15.2% 1. Core Tier 1 = Tier 1 excluding hybrid Tier 1 instruments Potential impact of regulatory reform on ANZ s core Tier 1 ratio 8.0% Core Tier-1 surplus over 7.00% ~9.2% 1 7.0% Capital Buffer: 2.5% 9.5% Counter cyclical buffer % Additional Basel 3 requirements ~ -140bps Full alignment to Basel ~ +260bps Minimum target: 4.5% 2 1. Subject to change pending final form of regulations Counter-cyclical buffer expected to be comprised of Core Tier-1, Tier-1 Hybrids and contingent capital.

21 Provision balances maintained and coverage ratios remain strong Collective Provision Balance ($m) Total Credit Risk Weighted Assets ($b) CP & Total Provision Balance / Credit Risk Weighted Assets (%) CP coverage Total provision coverage Risk Management: Provisions 21 21

22 Improved funding profile achieved, stable term debt issuance Stable term funding profile Funding Composition Improved Issuance Maturities Short Term Wholesale Funding Term Debt < 1 year Residual Maturity Term Debt > 1 year Residual Maturity Customer Funding Shareholders equity & Hybrid Debt 22

23 ANZ s sources of term funding have been further diversified over recent years FY07 Domestic AUD / NZD Current 30% 26% North America USD / CAD UK & Europe EUR / GBP / CHF 20% 10% 25% 5% Japan JPY 5% 20% 39% Private Placements Multi-currency 20% APEA Deposit Repatriation Multi-currency Offshore public benchmarks account for less than half of ANZ s annual term debt issuance 23

24 Strong Liquidity Position leading into proposed B3 changes Maintaining post GFC liquidity position ($b) Basel III Liquidity Developments Reduction in required core funding of mortgages from 100% to 65% Improved treatment of Retail and SME deposits Allowance for high grade corporate and covered bonds as liquid assets Recognition of jurisdictions (incl. Australia) that have insufficient qualifying liquid assets. Allowance for a committed liquidity facility from a central bank to be used at a fee Extended transition period Composition of liquid asset portfolio ($66.7b) Class 1 Class 2 Class 3 $28.9b $7.3b $30.5b Government/ Semi Govt. / Govt. Guaranteed bank paper, NZ cash with RBNZ, supranational paper Bank or Corporate paper rated AA or better Internal RMBS Impacts Liquidity Coverage Ratio will require additional liquid assets (where available) to be held resulting in higher core funding requirements (remaining deficit meet via central bank facility) This is primarily driven by non-operational deposits from Corporates and Financial Institutions, and short term wholesale debt Australian bank s no longer discouraged from holding mortgages on-balance sheet Given the lack of eligible liquid assets in Australia, APRA will allow banks to meet their LCR requirements through a committed liquidity facility at the RBA backed by repo eligible stock The banks will pay a fee for this facility in line with cost of holding BIII eligible liquid assets Priority of use 24

25 ANZ is a strong and stable AA rated bank S & P : AA / stable / A-1+ The AA issuer credit rating is affirmed, reflecting our expectation that ANZ will remain among the strongest banks globally based on key earnings metrics, earnings stability, and asset quality. The ratings on ANZ continue to reflect its strong market positions in its key markets of Australia and New Zealand. November 28 th, 2010 Moodys : Aa1 / Negative / P-1 ANZ s credit profile continues to be very strong and it is one of the highest rated financial institutions globally. Asset quality remains very sound by global comparison and the economic outlook remains good. Capital is strong and the impact of regulatory change on capital requirements is likely to be subdued. August 13 th,

26 Credit Quality

27 Impaired Asset balance has reduced ex-acquisitions Gross Impaired Assets By type A$m Gross Impaired Assets By size of exposure A$m A$m New Impaired Assets By Segment NPCCD Non Performing Credit Commitments and Contingencies 27

28 90+ days past due Australia Australia Mortgages 90+ day delinquencies Australia Cards 90+ day delinquencies Australia Commercial 90+ day delinquencies 28

29 Australia Mortgages Portfolio Statistics All lending is on a full recourse basis Dynamic Loan to Valuation Ratio Sep % 12% 4% Approvals require demonstrated serviceability ~830,000 loans on book 65% of portfolio owner occupied lending Average loan size at origination ~$226k Average LVR at origination - 63% Average dynamic LVR 46% Application Quality Average Score New Applications No subprime mortgages LoDoc 80 loans (80% LVR) make up less than circa 1.3% of portfolio and closed to new flows 29

30 New Zealand credit quality Total Impaired Assets and as % Gross Lending Assets Total Provision Charge (NZ$m) (NZ$m) 90+ Days Arrears 30

31 Commercial Property Credit Exposure Commercial Property Exposure GLA by Region (A$b) Commercial Property Exposure by Sector 7.5% of Group GLA s

32 Economic Outlook

33 Economic forecasts Australia New Zealand GDP Inflation ¹ 2.3 Unemployment Current A/C (% GDP) Cash rate year bonds AUD/USD N/A N/A N/A N/A AUD/NZD N/A N/A N/A N/A Credit Housing Business Other Source - ANZ economics team estimates. Based on 30 September bank year. 1. Impacted by an increase in the Goods and Services tax rate from 12.5% to 15% effective 1 October In New Zealand Business includes Rural lending 33

34 Aggressive easing and early retightening % Official Cash Rates RBA Cash Rate US Fed Funds Target Australian variable mortgage rate Forecast Sources: RBA, Federal Reserve and ANZ 34

35 Short-lived and small loss of jobs during the crisis Australian Employment Change in Employment (000s) 40 Employment (trend) Employment rate needed to maintain unemployment rate Sources: ABS and ANZ 35

36 Growing trade links with emerging Asian nations Exports A$B (12 month rolling sum) US Eurozone UK NZ Japan India China East Asia* *East Asia includes South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, Thailand, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines and Vietnam Sources: ABS and ANZ 36

37 Composition and Direction of Trade Exports by Country, 2009 Country Goods Services Total Total $bn $bn $bn Share% 1 China Japan India Korea, Republic of United States United Kingdom New Zealand Singapore Taiwan Indonesia Thailand Malaysia Hong Kong Germany Viet Nam Total all countries Composition of Trade, 2009 Exports ($bn) % share 1 Coal Iron ore Education services Gold Personal travel serv s Natural gas Crude petroleum Aluminium ore & conc Wheat Beef & beef products All exports Sources: ABS and ANZ 37

38 Australia s terms of trade is at 50-year highs and is the critical issue to take a medium term view on 130 Index Terms of Trade 120 Terms of Trade Sources: ABS and ANZ 38

39 Index, =100 USD Index, March 2000 = 100 Terms of trade gains are mainly a coal and iron ore story Export Prices Import Prices Coal (Thermal) Coal (Coking) Iron Ore Gold Crude Petrolem Aluminium Source: ABS and ANZ 39

40 Index, March 2000=100 $bn, (annual rolling sum) Impact: Terms of trade provides massive boost to national income ; Australian economy doubles in size since US Nominal Gross Domestic Product US National Income Aus Nominal Gross Domestic Product Aus Gross National Income Compensation of employees Corporate GoS Source: ABS and ANZ 40

41 Annual % Change Upward pressure on inflation and interest rates Headline vs. Underlying Inflation 6 5 CPI Core CPI Forecasts RBA target range Sources: ABS and ANZ 41

42 Exceptionally strong investment outlook over next few years $bn Uncertainty Communication sub-total Water & sewerage Sub-total Manufacturing Sub-total Gas Pipeline sub-total Electricity Sub-total Mining Sub-total Energy Sub-total Airports Sub-total Rail sub-total Ports sub-total Roads Sub-total Sources: Access Economics and ANZ 42

43 The outlook for mining investment has rarely been stronger ABARE Advanced Mining Projects, June 2010 Sources: ABARE 43

44 Industry composition Mining is catching up to construction and manufacturing Finance Manufacturing Construction Mining Professional services Health Transport Public admin. Wholesale Retail Education Rental & real estate IT Agriculture Utilities Admin. services Hospitality Other services Arts and rec. GDP by industry Jun-00 Jun % of GDP (industry gross value added contribution to production) Source: ABS and ANZ 44

45 Fears of a Chinese hard landing have eased with Chinese industrial production stabilising at a sustainable rate 14 China - GDP Growth (y/y) Potential Growth Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Sources: Bloomberg and ANZ 45

46 and the China growth story is structural and ongoing China s tiered city structure (2003 and 2025) 2003: 45 tier 1-3 cities 2025: 147 tier 1-3 cities 20 large economic zones 358 cities in total 11 cities ~ 15 million 18 cities ~ 10 million Source: BHP 46

47 Energy use Energy demand is underpinned by demand from China and India as they continue to urbanise and industrialise Primary energy consumption and GDP per capita Primary energy consumption per capita (MTOE) 7.0 United States Korea Australia 4.0 Japan China India Real GDP per capita (PPP basis) - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 Economic development Sources: GGDC Total Economy Database, BP Statistical Review of the World (2009), ANZ 47

48 Meat consumption per capita Agricultural exports the next wave for the terms of trade? Pork, chicken Meat and consumption beef consumption and GDP per capita per capita 150 kg/person/yr 125 USA 100 Italy 75 Singapore 50 China South Korea Japan 25 India Real GDP (at PPP) per capita 1990 US$000 48

49 Are Australian house prices overvalued? Much talk of housing bubble - but fundamentals sound Nominal house prices and ratio to income elevated House price to income ratio ignores interest rates / debt servicing Fundamentals are currently very supportive Housing shortage worsening Cyclical upturn underpinned by resources boom and authorities well placed to respond to any future crisis Household sector well placed Economy/labour market solid, unemployment falling few forced sales (historically a pre-requisite for significant price falls) - Low delinquencies reflect comfortable debt servicing - Lending standards critical to sustainability Financial system solid On balance sheet lending = incentives re. sustainable serviceability Conservative lending = low delinquencies Full recourse lending cf. US = less incentive to default Variable interest rate policy works! 49

50 The Australian housing market has been strong Index Dec 2006 = 100 Median House Prices Australia (-2.8%) UK (-20.8%) US (-36.9%) * Peak to trough Sources: RP Data-Rismark, Datastream 50

51 Conservative lending, supportive policy and strong economy has meant a very resilient housing market Source: RBA 51

52 52 Sources: RP Data-Rismark, RBA, ANZ Economics and Markets Research Australian house prices have broadly tracked incomes since 2004 (incomes rising strongly due to terms of trade) Index House price to income ratio Australia US UK New Zealand

53 Increase in house price to income ratio almost fully accounted for by the halving of mortgage rate Median house price $000's 600 Average household income $000's Mortgage rate % 6 ratio House price to income Sources: ABS, RBA, ANZ Economics and Markets Research 53

54 The under supply of housing is worsening 000's Housing market balance 500 Completions Underlying Demand Surplus Shortage Forecast Sources: ABS, ANZ Economics and Markets Research 54

55 Debt is concentrated in higher income households Household debt up but also total assets held by households Debt largely used to acquire assets Financial assets (i.e. ex housing) now equivalent to 2.75 years of income up from 1.75 years of income in the early 1990 s Increased debt mostly taken on by households in the strongest position to service it (high income quintile) Households in the top two quintiles account for 75% of all outstanding debt Bottom two income quintiles account for 10% of household debt Source: RBA paper Aspects of Australia s finances 15 June

56 The AUD is overvalued compared to PPP, but not based on relative interest rates and the terms of trade. AUD/USD 1.10 AUDUSD PPP Models Kitchen Sink Model Source: 28/01/2011 ANZ 56 56

57 Australia runs a current account deficit : investment requirements exceed national savings Financing Australia s current account deficit 15 % of GDP Current account deficit Net equity Bank net borrowing Govt. Debt (incl NFC) Private Corporate Net debt Securitisers Others sectors (Net accounts payable, RBA, Derivatives) Source: ABS 57

58 NZ: Recovery in growth forecast for 2010/11 NZ GDP growth Annual % change 7 6 ANZ Forecasts Sources: Statistics NZ, ANZ, National Bank RBNZ Official Cash Rate Percent Source: RBNZ % Forecasts for NZ GDP growth RBNZ - September 2010 MPS Treasury - May Budget IMF (April 2010 WEO) Consensus - September Source: RBNZ, Treasury, IMF, Consensus Economics Most forecasters expect growth to average around 2.5 percent this year and 3 percent plus next year The recent earthquake may reduce activity in the September quarter but increase it over 2011 RBNZ has started to remove policy stimulus Fiscal policy changing incentives on saving and investment Personal/business income tax cut Consumption tax increased

59 NZ: Credit growth, unemployment Household debt to GDP % of GDP Sources: ANZ National Bank, RBNZ Unemployment rate % Source: Statistics NZ Annual % change 25 Sector credit growth Agriculture Households Household debt to GDP ratio stabilizing Household credit growth reduced sharply Business deleveraging through recession Agricultural credit growth slowing Unemployment rate easing slightly -5 Business Source: RBNZ 59

60 NZ: External position Percent New Zealand export trade weights % of GDP (annual) Current account balance 25 Australia Services Goods ASEAN 6* * Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam Sources: ANZ National Bank, Statistics NZ China -6-8 Investment income & transfers -10 Current account Source: Statistics NZ Percent New Zealand export trade weights United States Eurozone United Kingdom External position has improved as trade balance moves back into surplus and investment income deficit narrows Long term shift in trade relationships away from traditional markets towards Asian region Sources: ANZ National Bank, Statistics NZ 60

61 NZ: Diversified export sector, weighted towards agriculture Personal Services 12.2% Government 5.1% Finance & Business 22.1% GDP composition Other 9.2% Agriculture 4.9% Transport Communication 6.4% Fishing, Forestry & Mining 2.5% Manufacturing 12.3% Electricity, Gas & Water 2.0% Construction 4.7% Wholesale 7.0% Retail 7.5% 4.5% and by country Exports are diversified by product Crude 2.4% Services 20.6% Manufacturing 23.2% Ag & Seafood 7.8% Dairy 19.7% Forestry & Wood 9.5% Exports 31% of GDP Meat 7.9% Other Food 8.0% UK 4.1% Other Europe Eurozone 2.5% 7.3% Australia 23.5% ASEAN 11.0% Other Nth Asia 7.2% US 8.9% Japan 7.2% China 9.6% Other 18.7% Sources: Statistics NZ; ANZ National Bank 61

62 The material in this presentation is general background information about the Bank s activities current at the date of the presentation. It is information given in summary form and does not purport to be complete. It is not intended to be relied upon as advice to investors or potential investors and does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. These should be considered, with or without professional advice when deciding if an investment is appropriate This presentation may contain forward-looking statements including statements regarding our intent, belief or current expectations with respect to ANZ s business and operations, market conditions, results of operations and financial condition, capital adequacy, specific provisions and risk management practices. When used in this presentation, the words estimate, project, intend, anticipate, believe, expect, should and similar expressions, as they relate to ANZ and its management, are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date hereof. Such statements constitute forward-looking statements for the purposes of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of ANZ does not undertake any obligation to publicly release the result of any revisions to these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date hereof to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. For further information visit or contact David Goode Head of Debt Investor Relations ph: (613) david.goode@anz.com 62