Koç Holding 9M15 Earnings Presentation

Transcription

1 Koç Holding Earnings Presentation 9 November 2015

2 Operating Environment 2

3 Risk aversion regarding emerging markets combined with domestic political developments left Turkish financial markets under pressure Nominal Interest Rates (Annually Comp, %) Real Interest Rates (%, ex-ante) Policy Rate (Weekly Repo) Benchmark Bond Exchange Rates (TL) Stock Exchange Market (BIST-100 Index) 97,000 91,000 85,000 79,000 73,000 67,000 61,000 55,000 49,000 43,000 Euro USD 3

4 Weakness in TL keeps inflation above official target Annual Inflation (%) CPI PPI % Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct CPI (Annual) CPI (Monthly) Core Inflation (Annual) PPI (Annual)

5 Consumer Confidence Real Sector Confidence % Billion TL While household and business confidence continued to remain weak in 3Q, industrial production exhibited a more resilient picture GDP Growth (Annual, %) Industrial Production GDP Growth (Annual, %) GDP (Seasonally Adjusted) Growth (%, LHS) Seasonally Adjusted Index (RHS) Confidence Indices Capacity Utilization Rates* (%) Consumer Confidence * Seasonally adjusted Real Sector Confidence* 5

6 Decline in exports limit the improvement in current account balance September 2015 US$ Billion Annual Chg. Last 12 Months US$ Billion Annual Chg. Exports % % Imports % % Trade Balance % % Annualized Current Account Balance (US$bn) 6

7 Koç Group 7

8 Tüpraş Capacity Utilizations & White Product Yield Capacity Utilizations % White Product Yield % Energy Koç Group Companies Tüpraş&Med Complex Margins US$/Barrel Tüpraş Clean Gross Ref. Margin Inventory Effect Tüpraş Gross Ref. Margin 3Q Q RUP became fully operational as of June Med Complex Margin Tüpraş Clean Net Ref. Margin Inventory Effect Tüpraş Net Ref. Margin Med Complex Margin Crude Others 3Q Q Aygaz Net Sales TLmn Opet Station Numbers 1,870 1,440 1,523 1,851 1,279 1,325 1,356 1,393 1, Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q Sunpet Opet 8

9 Sales Units, Domestic Market * Koç Market 14% 14% 52% 52% 21% 25% 23% 23% Share +39% % Passenger Cars +52% Light Commercial Vehicles Automotive Ford Otosan & Tofaş vs Sector Heavy Commercial Vehicles TOTAL 366, ,730 26, , , ,083 30, ,185 * Source: Automotive Manufacturing Association +12% Koç Group Share January-September 2015 Sales Development, Domestic Market * Units, Monthly % +57% +75% +68% +38% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep % +39% +35% -5% Ford Otosan Tofaş Market Share Rank Market Share Rank Total Automotive* 12.6% % 4 PC 6.9% 5 7.1% 3 LCV 26.1% % 1 MCV 32.5% 1 9.0% 3 Heavy Truck 25.0% * Including Heavy Commercial Vehicles 9

10 Consumer Durables Arçelik vs Sector Sales Units, Domestic Market * Sales Development, Domestic Market * Units, Monthly % +5% +11% +4% +15% Refrigerator Washer & Dishwasher Oven TOTAL & Freezer Dryer 1,923,329 1,398,495 1,064, ,608 5,031,296 2,028,787 1,546,162 1,105, ,023 5,419,873 * Source: White Goods Manufacturing Association % -5% +6% +5% +28% +7% +16% +1% +3% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Arçelik Revenues TLmn Arçelik Regional Breakdown of Revenue % +6% % 5,597 5, ,515 4, Domestic International Turkey Western Europe CIS & Eastern Europe Africa Middle East Other 10

11 Finance Yapı Kredi Bank Increasing market shares Resilient fundamentals YKB Private Banks Ytd State Banks Sector Market Share Ytd (bps) Loans 22% 17% 24% 20% 10.5% +24 Consumer Loans 21% 8% 9% 8% 9.9% +108 Companies 1 26% 22% 31% 25% 9.7% % Loans/Deposits Ratio 3 (bank-only) YKB: -3pp ytd (Sector : +1 pp) 109% 109% 110% Capital Adequacy Ratio (bank-only) ~15% 14.0% ~+40bps in Oct 15 ~15% 12.9% Deposits 27% 19% 21% 20% 10.5% +51 Demand 47% 19% 16% 18% 10.7% YKB Sector 1H15 Loan-Deposit Spread (quarterly) Solid commercial performance Core Revenue Growth (y/y) Adjusted T. RoAE k customers acquired in 2.5% +15bps 2.6% 12% 19% 11.2% 11.7% 10.6% 8.6% 2Q15 3Q15 (1) Total loans excluding consumer loans and credit cards (2) T. RoAE adjustments include (post-tax): Fixed asset revaluation (TL-104 mn), Fee rebates (TL+130 mn), One-off specific provisions (TL+84 mn), Additional generic provisions (TL+193 mn) (3) LDR (incl.tl bonds and bank deposits) for sector based on BRSA monthly data as of Aug

12 Financial Results 12

13 Group s Overall Financial Performance TL million Energy Automotive Consumer Durables Finance Other Total Change Over Total Combined Revenues * 47,157 25,045 10,505 15,481 7, ,308 7% Combined Gross Profit 4,025 3,136 3,273 6,425 1,144 18,002 29% Combined Operating Profit ** 2,709 1, , ,489 47% Combined Profit Before Tax 1,268 1, , ,589 19% Combined Net Income 1,805 1, , ,821 13% Consolidated Net Income *** ,214 5% * Before intra-group revenue eliminations ** Excluding FX gains/losses and credit finance income/charges on trade receivables and payables (Combined operating profit reported in financial report is TL 7,078 mn) *** Koç Holding s consolidated net income after the share of JV partners and non-controlling interests 13

14 Combined Revenues Combined Revenues TLmn Segmental Combined Revenues Breakdown % +7% 98, ,308 Automotive 24% Energy 45% Consumer Durables 10% Other 7% Finance 15% Segment Contribution to Combined Revenues TLmn -9% 52,020 47, % 18,494 25,045 9, % 10,505 12, % 15,481 6, % 7,119 Energy Automotive Consumer Durables Finance Other 14

15 Combined Operating Profit * Combined Operating Profit TLmn Segmental Combined Operating Profit Breakdown % +47% 7,489 Energy 36% 5,098 Automotive 23% Other 1% Finance 30% Consumer Durables 11% Segment Contribution to Combined Operating Profit TLmn +197% +4% 2, % 2,124 2, ,216 1, % % Energy Automotive Consumer Durables Finance Other * Excluding FX gains/losses and credit finance income/charges on trade receivables and payables 15

16 Combined Net Income Combined Net Income TLmn Segmental Combined Net Income Breakdown % 5,174 4,798* +13% +21% 5,821 Energy 31% Automotive 23% Other 3% Finance 31% Consumer Durables 12% Segment Contribution to Combined Net Income TLmn +31% 1, % 1,698 +7% 1,819 1,378 1,360 1, % -69% % 142* Energy Automotive Consumer Durables Finance Other 162 * Excluding fair value gain of Koç Holding s asset exchange transaction and Tat Gıda s gain on sale of Maret segment in

17 Consolidated Net Income Consolidated Net Income TLmn Segmental Consolidated Net Income Breakdown % 2,113 +5% 2, % 1,814* Energy 32% Automotive 25% Other 4% Finance 27% Consumer Durables 12% Segment Contribution to Consolidated Net Income TLmn +35% % +6% % % % * Energy Automotive Consumer Durables Finance Other * Excluding fair value gain of Koç Holding s asset exchange transaction and Tat Gıda s gain on sale of Maret segment in

18 Combined Exports & International Sales Combined Exports US$mn Combined International Sales US$mn 11,029-9% 9,991 13,636-14% 11,

19 Combined Investments Combined Investments TLmn Segmental Investments Breakdown % 4,959-12% 4,357 Automotive 47% Energy 31% Other 5% Finance 7% Consumer Durables 10% 19

20 Koç Holding Net Cash Position Koç Holding Stand-Alone Net Cash Position Total Debt: ~US$ 0.76 bn Total Cash: ~US$ 1.41 bn Net Cash: ~US$ 650mn Consolidated Net Debt / Cash Excl. Finance 1H15 ~US$ -4.4bn ~US$ -4.4bn 20

21 FX Position Koç Holding Stand-Alone FX Position 1H15 US$ + 65mn US$ +46mn Koç Holding Consolidated FX Position FX Position Weighted by Effective Ownership 1H15 1H15 US$ -2.8bn US$ -2.8bn* US$ -1.2bn US$ -1.2bn * The natural hedging mechanisms due to FX linked pricing of Tüpraş inventory account for ~US$0.9bn. Remaining US$ 1.9 billion short FX position comes mainly from Tüpraş RUP financing loans. Tüpraş applies cash flow hedge accounting for these investment loans under the related framework of IFRS. 21

22 Consolidated Main Financial Indicators Mn* US$ Mn* TL Mn TL Mn Change Change 30.Sep Sep Sep Sep.2014 %, TL %, US$ Revenues 17,320 19,309 51,276 51,314 q -0.1 q -19 Gross Profit 2,689 2,997 7,960 5,599 p 42 p 16 Operating Profit 1,447 1,614 4,285 2,625 p 63 p 33 Profit Before Tax 1,057 1,179 3,130 2,626 p 19 q -3 Taxes (net) q -12 q -29 Net Income Before Non-controlling Interest 1,275 1,421 3,774 3,362 p 12 q -9 Non-controlling Interest ,559 1,248 p 25 p 1.8 Net Income After Non-controlling Interest ,214 2,113 p 5 q -15 Total Assets 21,468 24,134 73,447 ** 63,941 p 15 q -12 Total Equity 9,149 10,285 31,300 ** 29,301 p 7 q -19 Shareholders' Equity 6,283 7,063 21,494 20,348 p 6 q -20 ** * EUR and USD amounts presented above are translated from TL for convenience purposes only and do not form part of these consolidated financial statements. Balance sheet items have been converted at the official TL exchange rate announced by the Central Bank of Turkey at 30 September 2015 ( TL=1 EUR and TL =1 USD); income statement items have been converted using the average exchange rate for the nine month period ended 30 September 2015 ( TL=1 EUR and TL=1 USD). ** As of 31 December

23 Q&A 23

24 Disclaimer This presentation does contain forward-looking statements that reflect the Company management s current views with respect to certain future events based on the base-case assumptions. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by a variety of variables and changes in underlying assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially. Neither Koç Holding nor any of its directors, managers or employees nor any other person shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from the use of this presentation. 24

25 Shareholder Structures as of September 2015 Koç Holding Koç Family: 68.51% Free Float: 22.24% Vehbi Koç Foundation: 7.26% Koç Pension Fund: 1.99% Energy Automotive Consumer Durables Finance Other Tüpraş SPV share: 51.00% Free float: 49.00% KH share: 43.70% (*) SPV KH share : 77.00% Aygaz: 20.00% Opet: 3.00% Aygaz KH share: 40.68% Other Koç: 10.53% Liquid Pet. Co.: 24.52% Free float: 24.27% Opet Tüpraş: 40.00% Other Koç: 10.00% Öztürk Group: 50.00% Ford Otosan KH share: 38.46% Ford: 41.04% Other Koç: 2.61% Free float: 17.89% Tofaş KH share: 37.59% Fiat: 37.86% Other Koç: 0.27% Free float: 24.29% TürkTraktör KH share: 37.50% CNH Osterreich GMBH : 37.50% Free float: 24.95% Other: 0.05% Otokar KH share: 44.68% Ünver Hold.: 24.81% Other Koç: 3.29% Free float: 27.22% Arçelik KH share: 40.51% Other Koç: 16.73% Burla Group: 17.61% Free float: 25.15% Koç Financial Services KH share: 37.55% Other Koç: 12.45% Unicredit Bank Austria: 50.0% Yapı Kredi Bank KFS: 81.80% Free float: 18.20% KH share: 32.89% (*) Tat Gıda KH share: 43.65% Other Koç: 9.69% Partner: 5.26% Free float: 41.41% (*) Effective stake indirectly through subsidiaries 25

26 For Further Questions, Please Contact : investorrelations@koc.com.tr Funda Güngör Akpınar, Coordinator Investor Relations fundag@koc.com.tr Gizem Bodur, Manager Investor Relations gizemb@koc.com.tr Neslihan Aycıl, Manager Investor Relations neslihana@koc.com.tr