BG s Wake Up Call. 26th June ASTRAZENECA NEUTRAL, Fair Value 4220p vs. 4230p (-3%) CRH SELL vs. NEUTRAL, Fair Value EUR18 (-7%)

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1 26th June 2014 BG s Wake Up Call Please find our Research on Bloomberg BRYG <GO>) Last close Daily chg (%) Chg YTD (%) Indices Dow Jones % +1.75% S&P % +6.01% Nasdaq % +4.86% Nikkei % -6.29% Stoxx % +4.17% CAC % +3.83% Oil /Gold Crude WTI % +8.06% Gold (once) % +9.18% Currencies/Rates EUR/USD % -1.06% EUR/CHF % -0.75% German 10 years % % French 10 years % % Economic releases : Date 26th-Jun US - Jobless Claims US - Consumer Comfort idnex JP - CPI (3.7% exp.) Upcoming BG events : Date 26th-Jun 3rd-Jul 3rd-Jul 16th-Sept Recent reports : Date 18th-Jun 17th-Jun 17th-Jun 12th-Jun 28th-May 22nd-May Sword Group (BG Paris Roadshow with J. Mottard CEO= Novartis (BG Paris Roadshow with Thimoty Wright Global Head of Development LDR (BG Paris roadshow with CEO) biomerieux (BG Paris CEO Roadshow) Optical & Eyewear Sector ACTELION - No longer the same company QIAGEN - Next on the list of tax inversion M&A? ASK (Corporate,Fair Value EUR 67.7m (pre-money)) A (contactless) passport for growth Pernod Ricard (Neutral, FV EUR94 Coverage initiated) Strong fundamentals overshadowed by short-term weakness Accor (Buy vs. Neutral, FV EUR46 vs. EUR33) Two companies in one 26/06/14 ASTRAZENECA NEUTRAL, Fair Value 4220p vs. 4230p (-3%) Olaparib fails to gain support from AdCom for accelerated approval in ovarian cancer By a 11-2 vote, panel experts from the ODAC yesterday said no to an accelerated approval of olaparib for the maintenance treatment of relapsing gbrcam ovarian cancer, citing efficacy and safety concerns. In doing so they are recommending the FDA to wait for confirmatory phase III trials that are currently ongoing before approving the drug. SOLO-2 interim data permitting a re-submission could be available at best late in The 2-year delay costs 10p/share but likely more for sentiment as AstraZeneca is under pressure to deliver after Pfizer s bid was rejected in May. CRH SELL vs. NEUTRAL, Fair Value EUR18 (-7%) Little catalyst and demanding valuation We are downgrading our recommendation to Sell from Neutral after a rally of 31% in absolute and 8% relative to our light side sample over a year. We believe high expectations of the new CEO have led to a demanding valuation, which should collapse back to an historic average due to: 1) little room for a consensus upgrade with EBITDA growth of 18% p.a. compared to 13% p.a. for our estimates, 2) high acquisition multiples which should limit the ability to use the balance sheet, and 3) little to expect from the disposals programme given the low quality assets being sold especially when compared to Lafarge-Holcim, ESSILOR BUY, Fair Value EUR96 (+23%) Essilor by 2018: upbeat sales guidance and clarification about the EBITDA margin objective At the Investor Day in London yesterday Essilor shared with investors its targets for The sales guidance of EUR8.2bn ( CAGR of 10%) is clearly above our estimates of EUR7.5bn, driven by emerging markets ( CAGR: +20%), sun (+17%) and online retail ( >20%). Although some investors might be disappointed by the implied EBITDA margin improvement (+140bps over to 24.4%), it could be put into perspective as the EBITDA should reach EUR2bn in 2018, or 7% above our forecast (EUR1.8bn for an EBITDA margin of 25%e). HOTELS Positive trend in RevPAR continues In Europe, the positive trend in RevPAR continued in May which registered the best performance since the beginning of the year with an increase of 6.8%. All segments contributed to this figure although the upscale segment reported once again the best performance (+8.1%). By geography, as previously announced, only two countries reported negative figures, i.e. France and Sweden. All in all, RevPAR in the first 5 months was up 2.9% with the best performances from Portugal (+10.5%) and Spain (+8%) and a negative figure for France (-2.3%). In brief... AEGON, 2015 targets confirmed The company is well on track as far as the business transformation is concerned, both in terms of free cash flow Stoxx Europe MAV 50D MAV 200D Source Thomson Reuters

2 Healthcare AstraZeneca Olaparib fails to gain support from AdCom for accelerated approval in ovarian cancer Price 4,362p Fair Value 4220p vs. 4230p (-3%) NEUTRAL Bloomberg AZN LN Reuters AZN.L 12-month High / Low (p) 4,824 / 3,113 Market Cap (GBP) 55,070 Ev (BG Estimates) (GBP) 55,755 Avg. 6m daily volume (000) y EPS CAGR -14.9% 1 M 3 M 6 M 31/12/13 Absolute perf. 0.8% 12.1% 20.8% 22.0% Healthcare 1.8% 7.7% 13.1% 11.5% DJ Stoxx % 4.1% 5.5% 4.2% YEnd Dec. (USDm) e 2014e 2015e Sales 27,862 25,712 25,296 25,676 % change -7.7% -1.6% 1.5% EBITDA 10,555 7,850 7,393 8,481 EBIT 8,148 3,712 4,743 5,831 % change -54.4% 27.8% 22.9% Net income 8,662 6,319 5,083 5,298 % change -27.0% -19.6% 4.2% e 2014e 2015e Operating margin Net margin ROE ROCE Gearing (USD) e 2014e 2015e EPS % change % -19.4% 4.2% P/E 10.8x 14.7x 18.2x 17.5x FCF yield (%) 1.1% 4.7% 1.6% 6.0% Dividends (USD) Div yield (%) 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% EV/Sales 3.5x 3.7x 3.8x 3.7x EV/EBITDA 9.1x 12.1x 13.1x 11.2x EV/EBIT 11.8x 25.5x 20.4x 16.2x By a 11-2 vote, panel experts from the ODAC yesterday said no to an accelerated approval of olaparib for the maintenance treatment of relapsing gbrcam ovarian cancer, citing efficacy and safety concerns. In doing so they are recommending the FDA to wait for confirmatory phase III trials that are currently ongoing before approving the drug. SOLO-2 interim data permitting a resubmission could be available at best late in The 2-year delay costs 10p/share but likely more for sentiment as AstraZeneca is under pressure to deliver after Pfizer s bid was rejected in May. ANALYSIS Yesterday, an FDA s ODAC (Advisory Committee for drugs in oncology) voted 11 to 2 against an accelerated approval of olaparib as a maintenance treatment for women having platiniumsensitive but relapsing ovarian cancer with the germline BRCA mutation. Experts first raised concerns about the reliability and the true significance of the single phase II trial in support of the filing, i.e. a subgroup analysis of 96 patients with gbrcam ovarian cancer. Some also questioned the relevance of the PFS primary endpoint in a maintenance setting as a PFS benefit of 11.2 months (vs. 4.1 months for the placebo arm) did not translate into an overall survival benefit. Because at stake was a recommendation for an accelerated approval of the drug, some have also raised the point that such a path could hinder proper conduct of the ongoing phase III trial. Lastly, safety was also a concerning element as the olaparib arm showed an increased incidence of myelodysplasic syndrome and acute myeloid leukemia (AML) with a reported rate of at least 0.8%. So in conclusion panel experts found it reasonable to wait for additional clinical data from ongoing confirmatory phase III trials before recommending the drug for approval. The SOLO programme is running and in ovarian cancer is composed of two distinct studies, SOLO-1 and SOLO-2 that, respectively in 1 st and 2 nd line, are evaluating the same population of women with gbrcam ovarian cancer as a maintenance monotherapy against placebo. As a reminder a daily dose of 300 mg will be used (with permission to reduce it to 250 or 200 mg if toxicity is confirmed). At the earliest, data can be expected late in 2015 and late in 2016 for SOLO-2 and 1 respectively. VALUATION Best case is now that re-submission of olaparib in this setting will take place in H in 2 nd line thus delaying approval by a touch more than 2 years (PDUFA date was 3 October 2014). BRCAm ovarian cancer in totality only represents 20% of the target non risk-adjusted peak sales that AstraZeneca presented in May 2014, i.e. USD400m out of USD2bn. Thus we are delaying the approval of the drug by two years and are booking first (minor) sales in 2016 vs previously, which impacts our FV by 10p/share. As we see it, the delay does not carry a higher risk of non-approval and so there is no reason to be more pessimistic or cautious than we were before, having only USD750m for olaparib at peak in Nevertheless, it is fair to say that the delay is not welcome by AZN s management as Soriot and team must maintain a high level of confidence among the group s key shareholders that it will deliver on promises and in the end have been right in rejecting Pfizer s offer. NEXT CATALYSTS 31 July 2014 : First-half results Click here to download Analyst : Eric Le Berrigaud 33(0) eleberrigaud@bryangarnier.com Sector Team : Mathieu Chabert Hugo Solvet 26 June

3 ss BG s Wake Up Call Construction & Building Materials CRH Little catalyst and demanding valuation Price EUR19.43 Fair Value EUR18 (-7%) SELL vs. NEUTRAL Bloomberg CRH.ID Reuters CRH.I 12-month High / Low (EUR) 21.8 / 15.2 Market Cap (EURm) 14,361 Ev (BG Estimates) (EURm) 17,214 Avg. 6m daily volume (000) y EPS CAGR 1 M 3 M 6 M 31/12/13 Absolute perf. -3.3% 0.2% 8.2% 6.2% Cons & Mat 0.8% 5.9% 13.3% 11.3% DJ Stoxx % 6.5% 6.6% 5.3% YEnd Dec. (EURm) e 2015e 2016e Sales 18,031 19,074 20,262 21,536 % change 5.8% 6.2% 6.3% EBITDA 1,475 1,710 1,937 2,104 EBIT ,090 1,205 % change NM 19.3% 10.5% Net income % change NS 31.5% 18.1% e 2015e 2016e Operating margin Net margin ROE ROCE Gearing (EUR) e 2015e 2016e EPS % change - NS 31.5% 18.1% P/E NS 30.9x 23.5x 19.9x FCF yield (%) 3.5% 3.4% 5.5% 5.4% Dividends (EUR) Div yield (%) 3.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% EV/Sales 0.9x 0.9x 0.8x 0.8x EV/EBITDA 11.6x 10.1x 8.7x 7.9x EV/EBIT 170.5x 18.8x 15.5x 13.8x We are downgrading our recommendation to Sell from Neutral after a rally of 31% in absolute and 8% relative to our light side sample over a year. We believe high expectations of the new CEO have led to a demanding valuation, which should collapse back to an historic average due to: 1) little room for a consensus upgrade with EBITDA growth of 18% p.a. compared to 13% p.a. for our estimates, 2) high acquisition multiples which should limit the ability to use the balance sheet, and 3) little to expect from the disposals programme given the low quality assets being sold especially when compared to Lafarge-Holcim, ANALYSIS Valuation is way too demanding. CRH is trading at a 2014e EV/EBITDA of 10.1x or an 18% premium to its historic average since 2005 of 8.5x. The multiple is above the first decile, i.e. a 10% more expensive EV/EBITDA multiple since 2005 as shown in the chart below. We expect the multiple to collapse back to the historic average due to few positive catalysts. The group is trading at a 2015e EVEBITDA of 8.7x (7.9x 2016e) which represents a 3% premium to the historic average (7% discount to 2016). CRH EV/EBITDA multiple since 2005 (x) /01/05 01/04/05 01/07/05 01/10/05 01/01/06 01/04/06 01/07/06 01/10/06 01/01/07 01/04/07 01/07/07 01/10/07 01/01/08 01/04/08 01/07/08 01/10/08 01/01/09 01/04/09 01/07/09 01/10/09 01/01/10 01/04/10 01/07/10 01/10/10 01/01/11 01/04/11 01/07/11 01/10/11 01/01/12 01/04/12 01/07/12 01/10/12 01/01/13 01/04/13 01/07/13 01/10/13 01/01/14 01/04/14 Source: Bryan Garnier & Co. ests Last Decil First Decil CRH Historic average Little room for a consensus upgrade but not only in the short term. We expect 12% EBITDA growth in H to EUR1.2bn in line with market expectations. This is consistent with guidance of somewhat better than the second half 2013 at EUR1.1bn. At best, we believe the management will reiterate FY guidance. We cannot rule out the magnitude of the H2 EBITDA consensus growth being reduced EBITDA consensus is pricing an 18% EBITDA growth per annum while we see only 13% growth. Don t expect too much from asset disposals after the portfolio review. At this stage, the portfolio review has led to asset disposals of 10% of the assets (3% of EBITDA) while 20% of the assets are still under review (70% of group has been identified as core). The Lafarge-Holcim deal and Heidelbergcement s Building Products has considerably increased the number of building materials assets on the market while CRH is looking to divest non-core assets. We believe the quality of CRH assets are poor especially compared to Lafarge-Holcim. We therefore don t expect disposals to be a catalyst. CRH is unable to use its balance sheet to create value. We estimate CRH has an ability to spend between EUR0.5bn to EUR1bn on acquisitions given its strong balance sheet. At this stage, the group s net debt/ebitda ratio has remained between 2.3x and 2.0x since The current environment with high multiples could drag on CRH s ability to find targets which fit into its disciplined financial criteria (see our Road Show feedback with Saint-Gobain s CFO 26 June

4 underlining high transaction multiples Feedback from breakfast with the CFO). In the first 4 months of the year, CRH bought only 7 acquisitions for a total of EUR60m. CRH is unlikely to buy Lafarge s and Holcim s divestments which in our view should be sold to Private Equity or emerging market players. The current infrastructure bill MAP-21 expires in September. With the general elections scheduled for beginning of November, politics have failed to agree on a new 6-year package. We believe a one year extension is likely which should postpone the new package to At this stage, growth in the US has been disappointing with LFL up 2% in January-April including 6% growth in RMC and flat in Aggregates and Asphalt (these two products account for 60% of CRH s EBITDA in the US). VALUATION Our DCF-derived Fair Value of EUR18 is based on a WACC of 8.4%, a growth rate to perpetuity of 2.5% and a normalised EBITDA margin of 9.8%. NEXT CATALYSTS H1 results on 19 th August Click here to download Analyst : Sven Edelfelt 33(0) sedelfelt@bryangarnier.com 26 June

5 Luxury & Consumer Goods Essilor Essilor by 2018: upbeat sales guidance and clarification about the EBITDA margin objective Price EUR78.21 Fair Value EUR96 (+23%) BUY Bloomberg EF FP Reuters ESSI.PA 12-month High / Low (EUR) 88.7 / 71.1 Market Cap (EURm) 16,793 Ev (BG Estimates) (EURm) 18,763 Avg. 6m daily volume (000) y EPS CAGR 9.8% 1 M 3 M 6 M 31/12/13 Absolute perf. 1.8% 7.5% 4.1% 1.2% Consumer Gds 0.1% 7.0% 7.4% 5.9% DJ Stoxx % 4.1% 5.5% 4.2% YEnd Dec. ( m) e 2015e 2016e Sales 5,065 5,579 6,102 6,529 % change 10.1% 9.4% 7.0% EBITDA 917 1,014 1,153 1,267 EBIT ,088 1,202 % change 11.0% 16.3% 10.4% Net income % change 3.4% 13.7% 12.6% e 2015e 2016e Operating margin Net margin ROE ROCE Gearing ( ) e 2015e 2016e EPS % change - 3.4% 13.7% 12.6% P/E 28.1x 27.2x 23.9x 21.2x FCF yield (%) 3.3% 3.3% 3.9% 4.7% Dividends ( ) Div yield (%) 1.2% 1.3% 1.5% 2.7% EV/Sales 3.4x 3.4x 3.0x 2.8x EV/EBITDA 18.7x 18.5x 16.1x 14.4x EV/EBIT 20.4x 20.1x 17.0x 15.2x At the Investor Day in London yesterday Essilor shared with investors its targets for The sales guidance of EUR8.2bn ( CAGR of 10%) is clearly above our estimates of EUR7.5bn, driven by emerging markets ( CAGR: +20%), sun (+17%) and online retail ( >20%). Although some investors might be disappointed by the implied EBITDA margin improvement (+140bps over to 24.4%), it could be put into perspective as the EBITDA should reach EUR2bn in 2018, or 7% above our forecast (EUR1.8bn for an EBITDA margin of 25%e). ANALYSIS Reach sales of ~EUR8.2bn by To reach this aggressive target, Essilor must post a 10% FXneutral sales CAGR during the period with 5-6% LFL growth (vs. BG ests: 5.2% on average), which could accelerate over 6% from Essilor has ambitions to outperform the growth of its three main playing fields : (i) in clear lenses with 8% average growth vs. 3-4% for the market, (ii) in sunglasses with 17% CAGR compared to 6-7% for the industry, and (iii) posting revenue CAGR over 20% in online retail vs. 14% for the market. The emerging markets will naturally be one of the main sales growth catalysts, with an expected 20% CAGR to reach sales of EUR2.8bn by 2018, driven by the emerging middle class, an expansion of a modern optical distribution and the penetration of new markets (Africa, Pakistan, Iran, Venezuela ). These emerging countries should therefore account for ~34% of group sales in 2018 vs. 21% in Online Retail: more than just a new channel. Although it only has a penetration rate of 4% (EUR3bn), the online optical industry should grow by 14% on average to reach EUR5.8bn in 2018, driven by new online and mobile technologies (3D Virtual Try-On, distance measurement system ). Essilor now has a comprehensive offering: in contact lenses (Coastal), in the premium segment (Frames Direct), in white labels (EyeBuyDirect), a virtual store platform for ECPs (MyOnlineOptical) with dedicated supply chain and marketing expertise which enables Essilor to create a complete ecosystem and outperform the market with a CAGR over 20%(EUR m of sales by 2018). Brand building on the four main blockbuster brands. Indeed brand building in optics becomes increasingly strategic to educate consumers and support ECPs in their sales argument, all the more since products are more and more complex. Hence Essilor will ramp up marketing investments on its four main consumer brands: (i) Varilux (progressive lenses), (ii) Transitions (photochromic lenses), (iii) Crizal (coatings) and (iv) Xperio (polarised lenses). Total consumer marketing budget will amount EUR125m/year in 2016 (>EUR125m by 2018) vs. EUR25m spent last year thanks to the EUR100m synergies released from the acquisitions of Transitions and Coastal. A profitable growth story... but not enough for investors? In our view, this sharp increase in marketing expenses can explain why the EBITDA would only increase by 140bps over Despite an evident return on investment (strong brand awareness, high-margin brands), Essilor built this EBITDA guidance from conservative payback assumptions. Although, the group counts on numerous margin enhancers: (i) efficiency programmes and cost management, (ii) supply chain optimisation (sun, Transitions), (iii) high-value key contracts (EyeMed, General Optica, Wal-Mart ) and (iv) ramp-up in the online business profitability (margins of 10-12% by 2018 vs. low single-digit rate currently). Yes Essilor s 2018 guidance of 24.4% is 60bps below our estimates, but this miss must be put into perspective: 1/ the targeted EBITDA for 2018 (EUR2bn) is still 7% above our forecast of EUR1.8bn and 2/ an EBITDA margin of 25% (on top of a revenue of EUR8.2bn) would imply an EBITDA of EUR2,050m, i.e. a difference of only EUR50m compared to the guidance. VALUATION Should the negative market reaction be explained by the cautious EBITDA margin guidance, we consider it as exaggerated considering the implied EUR50m difference on the 2018 EBITDA vs. our forecasts. We note that the management is really confident about the gradual acceleration of the LFL growth by 2018, which is positive as we still think that this is the main performance criterion in the eyes of investors. Management confirmed that current trading was in line with plans and they confirmed that LFL growth should be in the 2.5-4% range, in accordance with the guidance released in February. 26 June

6 NEXT CATALYSTS Essilor will release its H1 14 results on August 28, Table 1: drivers of the LFL growth acceleration: Table 2: breakdown of the EUR8.2bn sales target for 2018, by business: Table 3: Essilor s 2018 sales and EBITDA targets Click here to download Analyst : Cédric Rossi 33(0) crossi@bryangarnier.com Consumer Analyst Team : Loïc Morvan Virginie Roumage 26 June

7 Sector View Hotels Positive trend in RevPAR continues 1 M 3 M 6 M 31/12/13 Travel&Leisure -0.6% 1.7% 7.3% 5.4% DJ Stoxx % 4.1% 5.5% 4.2% *Stoxx Sector Indices Europe ADR per annum in Europe j f m a m j j a s o n d Occupancy per annum in Europe % 85.0% 80.0% 75.0% 70.0% 65.0% 60.0% 55.0% 50.0% 45.0% j f m a m j j a s o n d Source MKG Spain ADR per annum in Spain j f m a m j j a s o n d In Europe, the positive trend in RevPAR continued in May which registered the best performance since the beginning of the year with an increase of 6.8%. All segments contributed to this figure although the upscale segment reported once again the best performance (+8.1%). By geography, as previously announced, only two countries reported negative figures, i.e. France and Sweden. All in all, RevPAR in the first 5 months was up 2.9% with the best performances from Portugal (+10.5%) and Spain (+8%) and a negative figure for France (-2.3%). ANALYSIS May was the strongest month since the beginning of the year: RevPAR in May in Europe was up 6.8% and like in March largely sustained by ADR (+3.1%). We also highlight that occupancy in May (73%) is higher than the 2007 level while ADR is significantly lower (-22% vs. May 2007) for the first time Regarding occupancy, we highlight in the first 5 months, RevPAR was up 2.9%, o/w ADR up 0.5%. Best recovery from Southern European countries: RevPARs in most of all countries in Europe were up in May except in France and Sweden. Best performances came from Germany (+23.1%), Portugal (+22.8%) and Spain (12.3%) sustained by specific events or fairs. Note that in many countries RevPAR was largely driven by ADR. Since the beginning of the year, Southern European countries have registered the best performance, i.e. Portugal and Spain respectively up 10.5% and 8%. UK and Germany were up 7% and 4.1%. For Accor, Europe excluding France generated c.34% 2013 consolidated EBIT and France c.37%. For Melia Hotels, EBIT 2013 in Spain was broadly flat (EUR-17.1m from Spain city and EUR+18m from the Mediterranean) but representing 45% of the total room offer (our 2014 estimates for Spain are based on 7.1% RevPAR increase for Mediterranean resort and +1% for City). Regarding IHG, the UK and Germany are the two main countries for the group in Europe. NEXT CATALYSTS Accor: H1 revenue on 17 th July. H1 results on 26 th August Melia Hotels: H1 results on 31 st July, IHG: H1 results on 5 th August Click here to download Occupancy per annum in Spain j f m a m j j a s o n d Source MKG Analyst : Bruno de La Rochebrochard 33(0) bdelarochebrochard@bryangarnier.com 26 June

8 Insurance Aegon 2015 targets confirmed Price EUR6.42 Fair Value EUR6.4 (0%) SELL Bloomberg AGN NA Reuters AEGN.AS 12-month High / Low (EUR) 7.0 / 5.0 Market Cap (EURm) 13,786 Avg. 6m daily volume (000) 6,892 1 M 3 M 6 M 31/12/13 Absolute perf. 2.3% -1.2% -5.8% -6.4% Insurance -0.1% 1.2% 0.6% -0.4% DJ Stoxx % 4.1% 5.5% 4.2% e 2014e 2015e P/E 8.9x 8.4x 8.5x 8.0x Div yield (%) 3.3% 3.6% 3.9% 4.5% ANALYSIS Aegon yesterday confirmed its 2015 targets. The company is well on track as far as the business transformation is concerned, both in terms of free cash flow (EUR1.3bn annualised in Q vs. a EUR bn 2015 guidance) and fee-based earnings (37% of operating profit in Q vs. a 2015 guidance of 30-35%). But the profitability target (10-12% ROE vs. 7.4% in 2013) remains challenging to us. The company also expects to present strategic reviews on its French and Canadian businesses before year-end. These businesses have generated respectively EUR21m and EUR14m operating profit in 2013, or 1.1% and 0.7% respectively of total operating profit. Remember that the French footprint is a 35% stake in JV with La Mondiale. We remain a little sceptical on the investment case, but reckon that Aegon is well placed to benefit from the relatively better investment environment in the US compared to Europe (56% of its revenue generating investments in the US) and from the potential strengthening of the Dollar vs. the Euro. VALUATION Based on our current 2014 estimates, our SOTP valuation is EUR6.4. NEXT CATALYSTS Q numbers on 14 August. Click here to download Olivier Pauchaut, opauchaut@bryangarnier.com 26 June

9 26 June 2014 BG s Wake Up Call Bryan Garnier stock rating system For the purposes of this Report, the Bryan Garnier stock rating system is defined as follows: Stock rating Positive opinion for a stock where we expect a favourable performance in absolute terms over a period of 6 months from the publication of a BUY recommendation. This opinion is based not only on the FV (the potential upside based on valuation), but also takes into account a number of elements including a SWOT analysis, positive momentum, technical aspects and the sector backdrop. Every subsequent published update on the stock will feature an introduction outlining the key reasons behind the opinion. Opinion recommending not to trade in a stock short-term, neither as a BUYER or a SELLER, due to a specific set of factors. This view is intended to NEUTRAL be temporary. It may reflect different situations, but in particular those where a fair value shows no significant potential or where an upcoming binary event constitutes a high-risk that is difficult to quantify. Every subsequent published update on the stock will feature an introduction outlining the key reasons behind the opinion. Negative opinion for a stock where we expect an unfavourable performance in absolute terms over a period of 6 months from the publication of a SELL recommendation. This opinion is based not only on the FV (the potential downside based on valuation), but also takes into account a number of elements including a SWOT analysis, positive momentum, technical aspects and the sector backdrop. Every subsequent published update on the stock will feature an introduction outlining the key reasons behind the opinion. Distribution of stock ratings BUY ratings 58.5% NEUTRAL ratings 31.9% SELL ratings 9.6% Bryan Garnier Research Team HealthcareTeam Eric Le Berrigaud 33 (0) eleberrigaud@bryangarnier.com Mathieu Chabert 33 (0) mchabert@bryangarnier.com Martial Descoutures 33 (0) mdescoutures@bryangarnier.com Consumer Goods Loïc Morvan 33 (0) lmorvan@bryangarnier.com Cedric Rossi 33 (0) crossi@bryangarnier.com Beverages Virginie Roumage 33 (0) vroumage@bryangarnier.com IT Services Gregory Ramirez 33 (0) gramirez@bryangarnier.com Insurance Olivier Pauchaut 33 (0) opauchaut@bryangarnier.com Hotels/Business Services Bruno de la Rochebrochard 33 (0) bdelarochebrochard@bryangarnier.com Construction & Concessions Sven Edelfelt 33 (0) sedelfelt@bryangarnier.com A copy of the Bryan Garnier & Co Limited conflicts policy in relation to the production of research is available at

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