W KL CU`$O` 27 th May R K Global Research Team

Transcription

1 27 th May 213 R K Global Research Team

2 Index Content Slide No. Global Markets Outlook 3 Domestic Market Outlook 4 Market Statistics 5 Fund Flow Analysis 6 Domestic Economic Indicators 7-8 Commodity Prices 9-1 Currencies 11 Global Economic Calendar 12 R K Global Research Coverage Snapshot 13 Contact Us May 213 2

3 Global Market Outlook Indices* (%) 1 W 1 M 3 M 6 M 1 Y YTD Nasdaq Straits Times DAX S&P Bse Sensex Hang Seng Dow Jones CAC Nikkei FTSE Shanghai Source: Ace Equity, R K Global Research; * % return as on 27 May'13 Date Time* Country Event Unit A F P 22-May 7:3pm USD Existing Home Sales Million 4.97M 4.99M 4.94M 22-May 7:3pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies 22-May 11:3pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes 23-May 7:15am CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Index May 12:3pm EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI Index May 1:pm EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI Index May 6:pm USD Unemployment Claims Thousand 34K 347K 363K 23-May 7:3pm USD New Home Sales Thousand 454K 429K 444K 24-May 3:am EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks 24-May 1:3pm EUR German Ifo Business Climate May 6:pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m Percentage 1.3%.6% -1.5% Source: Forex Pros, R K Global Research; A=Actual; F=Forecast; P=Previous, *IST Market This Week Stocks endured their first weekly decline in a month as concerns over monetary policy returned to the forefront. As is often the case, small-cap stocks experienced bigger swings than large-caps, but the S&P MidCap 4 Index fell somewhat further still. Mid-cap stocks have generally outperformed their larger and smaller counterparts over the past few years. The week's most dramatic action in the markets took place in Japan, where the benchmark Nikkei Average tumbled more than 7% before U.S. markets opened Thursday. The decline, one of the worst in decades, followed a rally that had taken the Japanese market over 6% higher in recent months. The gains have largely been based on hopes that economic reforms and a decline in the yen would shake the economy from its deflationary slumber, but fears appeared to grow during the week that the government would be unable to follow through with tough structural reforms and build on the monetary stimulus that has sparked the rally. In a break with recent patterns, the selloff in Japan did not cause a synchronized downturn in other global markets. Domestic policy concerns in the U.S. took their own toll on markets, however. Stocks fell sharply and reversed a morning rally on Wednesday, after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress that the central bank could begin reducing its asset purchases in coming months. The Fed's purchases of long-term Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities have been one factor keeping long-term rates low and heightening the relative appeal of equities. Outlook for Next Week Markets will be hyper-focused on the economy in the week ahead and whether there's any sign it is getting strong enough to encourage the Federal Reserve to start pulling back the security blanket of quantitative easing. In the holiday-shortened week, none of the data will make a huge difference in the Fed's decision-making, but it will add to the picture on the economy. There is consumer confidence, pending home sales, personal income, and revised first-quarter gross domestic product. But weekly jobless claims Thursday could be the most anticipated because of what it might say about the job market, a week before the June 7 release of the crucial May employment report, which is important for the Fed. The May jobs report is the next mile marker for the Fed, since restoring job growth is part of its mandate and it has targeted a 6.5 percent unemployment rate as a point where it may start to roll back its zero-rate policy. 27 May 213 3

4 Domestic Market Outlook Indices * (%) 1 W 1 M 3 M 6 M 1 Y YTD NSE - Midcap NSE - Nifty Junior NSE - CNX S&P Bse Midcap NSE - CNX Midcap S&P Bse Sensex NSE - CNX NSE - CNX S&P Bse S&P Bse CNX Nifty Index S&P Bse NSE - Smallcap Index S&P Bse Smallcap Source: Ace Equity, R K Global Research; * % return as on 27 May'13 Indices * (%) 1 W 1 M 3 M 6 M 1 Y YTD S&P Bse FMCG S&P Bse Bankex S&P Bse Capital Good S&P Bse Realty S&P Bse Auto S&P Bse Sensex S&P Bse Metal S&P Bse Power S&P Bse Oil S&P Bse IT Source: Ace Equity, R K Global Research; * % return as on 27 May'13 Market this Week Key benchmark indices snapped five-week rising trend as profit booking emerged at higher levels. Sentiment was impacted by poor earnings from frontline companies L&T and SBI. Weak global cues after disappointing data from China and comments from the US Federal Reserve about tapering its stimulus program also dampened sentiment. The market declined in four out of five trading sessions in the week ended Friday, 24 May 213. In the week ended Friday, 24 May 213, the Sensex fell points or 2.87% to 19, The 5-unit Nifty declined points or 3.29% to 5, Weakness persisted on the bourses for the fourth session of trade on Thursday, 23 May 213 as world stocks tumbled after disappointing data from China and comments from the US Federal Reserve about tapering its stimulus program stoked worries about slower global growth and less liquidity. Index heavyweight and cigarette major ITC fell 1.4% to `33. The company's net profit rose 19.43% to ` crore on 19.12% growth in total income to ` crore in Q4 Mar 13. The result was announced on 17 May 213. ITC's net profit rose 2.38% to ` crore on 18.74% growth in total income to ` crore in the year ended Mar 13. Bank stocks edged lower. State Bank of India tumbled 11.28% to ` and was the top weekly loser from the Sensex pack. The state-run bank reported 18.54% fall in net profit to ` crore on 6.98% rise in total income to ` crore in Q4 March 213 over Q4 March 212. SBI's ratio of net non-performing assets to net advances stood at 2.1% as on 31 Mar 13. Capital goods pivotal declined after reporting poor Q4 results. L&T slumped 1.24%. The company reported 6.9% fall in net profit to ` crore on 9.9% rise in total income to ` crore in Q4 March 213 over Q4 March 212. The result was announced during market hours on Wednesday, 22 May 213. BHEL slipped 4.22%. The company reported 4.2% fall in net profit to ` crore on 2.2% decline in net sales to ` crore in Q4 Mar 13. Outlook for Next Week The week ahead will be highly volatile as the government will release January-March quarter GDP on Friday, which is expected to confirm the economy, grew at its slowest pace in a decade in the 212/13 fiscal year. GDP data should also show whether the economy has gained some traction after the government's reforms moves and RBI's rate cuts. Investors will also be eyeing whether strong foreign buying continues. Foreign institutional investors extended their record net purchases of Indian stocks to a 26th consecutive sessions on Thursday, despite sharp falls sparked by worries the Fed would unwind its monetary stimulus earlier than expected. 27 May 213 4

5 Market Statistics Volumes this Week Delivery Volume this Week # Crore 8 BSE NSE # Crore 3 BSE NSE May May May May-13 2-May May May May May-13 2-May-13 Turnover this Week No. of Trades this Week ` Crores 3 F&O NSE BSE 7 BSE NSE May May May May-13 2-May May May May May-13 2-May-13 Source: NSE, BSE, Ace Equity, R K Global Research 27 May 213 5

6 Fund Flow Analysis 3m DIIs Fund Flows 3m FIIs Fund Flows ` Crs 15 DII (LS) Sensex (RS) Index 21 ` Crs 8 FII Equity (LS) FII Debt (LS) Sensex (RS) Index Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May Particulars Units 1 W 1 M 3 M 6 M 1 Y YTD Equity ` Crs FII Debt ` Crs Total ` Crs Equity ` Crs MF Debt ` Crs Total ` Crs DII Total ` Crs Sensex % m Mututal Funds Flows ` Crs Equity (LHS) Debt (LHS) Sensex (RHS) Index Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May Exchange Rate `/$ Source: SEBI, AceEquity, R K Global Research; as on 27 May'13 27 May 213 6

7 Index Index % Indian Economic Indicators Daily Weighted Avg Call Rates Policy Rates 13 Repo Reverse Repo % Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 Source: RBI, R K Global Research May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 Source: RBI, R K Global Research Monthly WPI - PA Index % 1.5% 1.4% % % Index (LHS) 8.8% 8.2% 9.4% Y-o-y (RHS) 1.6% 1.3% 1.5% 8.4% 5.6% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% Monthly WPI Index % 7.2% 7.3% % 8.% 7.8% Index (LHS) 7.5% 7.6% 7.5% Y-o-y (RHS) 7.3% 7.4% 6.8% 5.2% 11% 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 135 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 % 135. Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 5% Source: MOSPI, R K Global Research Source: MOSPI, R K Global Research 27 May 213 7

8 Index % Index % Indian Economic Indicators IIP Y-o-Y Growth (%) Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar Source: MOSPI, R K Global Research Core Industry Index vis-a-vis Y-o-Y Growth Core Industry Index (LHS) Y-o-Y Growth (RHS) Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, R K Global Research HSBC PMI Manufacturing Index 56 Weekly Forex Reserves US$ Billion 298 Weekly Forex Reserves (LS) W-o-W Change (RS) 1.% % 294.6% %.2%.% -.2% -.4% Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr % -.8% -1.% Source: HSBC, Markit, R K Global Research Source: RBI, R K Global Research 27 May 213 8

9 Commodities - Metals MCX Natural Gas Spot Prices ` /mmbtu MCX Crude Oil Spot Prices `/bbl May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 3 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 MCX Zinc Spot Prices ` /kg 12 MCX Nickel Spot Prices `/kg May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Source: MCX, AceEquity, R K Global Research 27 May 213 9

10 Commodities Precious Metals & Energy MCX Gold Spot Prices `/1gm 33 MCX Silver Spot Prices `/kgs , ,558 43, May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 42,847 4 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 MCX Copper Spot Prices ` /kg 48 MCX Aluminium Spot Prices `/kg May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Source: MCX, Ace Equity, R K Global Research 27 May 213 1

11 Currencies EUR-USD USD-JPY May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Source: NW18 database, R K Global Research 73 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Source: NW18 database, R K Global Research USD-INR 59 US Dollar Index May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Source: NW18 database, R K Global Research May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Source: ForexPros, R K Global Research 27 May

12 Global Economic Calendar Date Day IST Currency Event 28-May-13 Tue 12:15pm EUR French Consumer Spending m/m 28-May-13 Tue 7:3pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 29-May-13 Wed All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m 29-May-13 Wed 1:25pm EUR German Unemployment Change 29-May-13 Wed 1:3pm EUR M3 Money Supply y/y 3-May-13 Thu 6:pm USD Prelim GDP q/q 3-May-13 Thu 6:pm USD Unemployment Claims 3-May-13 Thu 7:3pm USD Pending Home Sales m/m 31-May-13 Fri 11:3am EUR German Retail Sales m/m 31-May-13 Fri 2:3pm EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 31-May-13 Fri 2:3pm EUR Unemployment Rate 31-May-13 Fri 6:pm USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 31-May-13 Fri 6:pm USD Personal Spending m/m 31-May-13 Fri 6:3pm USD S&P/CS Composite-2 HPI y/y 31-May-13 Fri 7:15pm USD Chicago PMI 31-May-13 Fri 7:25pm USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 1-Jun-13 Sat 6:3am CNY Manufacturing PMI 2-Jun-13 Sun 11:3pm USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 3-Jun-13 Mon 7:am USD FOMC Member Yellen Speaks 3-Jun-13 Mon 7:15am CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI 3-Jun-13 Mon 12:45pm EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 3-Jun-13 Mon 1:15pm EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI 3-Jun-13 Mon Tentative EUR French 1-y Bond Auction 3-Jun-13 Mon 7:3pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 4-Jun-13 Tue 12:3pm EUR Spanish Unemployment Change 4-Jun-13 Tue 6:pm USD Trade Balance 5-Jun-13 Wed 12:45pm EUR Spanish Services PMI 5-Jun-13 Wed 1:15pm EUR Italian Services PMI 5-Jun-13 Wed 2:3pm EUR Retail Sales m/m 5-Jun-13 Wed 5:45pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 5-Jun-13 Wed 6:pm USD Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q 5-Jun-13 Wed 7:3pm USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 5-Jun-13 Wed 7:3pm USD Factory Orders m/m 5-Jun-13 Wed 11:3pm USD Beige Book 6-Jun-13 Thu Tentative EUR Spanish 1-y Bond Auction 6-Jun-13 Thu 3:3pm EUR German Factory Orders m/m 6-Jun-13 Thu 5:15pm EUR Minimum Bid Rate 6-Jun-13 Thu 6:pm EUR ECB Press Conference 6-Jun-13 Thu 6:pm USD Unemployment Claims 7-Jun-13 Fri 11:3am EUR German Trade Balance 7-Jun-13 Fri 3:3pm EUR German Industrial Production m/m 7-Jun-13 Fri 6:pm USD Non-Farm Employment Change 7-Jun-13 Fri 6:pm USD Unemployment Rate 7-Jun-13 Fri 6:pm USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m Date Day IST Currency Event 8-Jun-13 Sat Tentative CNY Trade Balance 9-Jun-13 Sun 7:am CNY CPI y/y 9-Jun-13 Sun CNY PPI y/y 9-Jun-13 Sun 11:am CNY Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y 9-Jun-13 Sun CNY Industrial Production y/y 1-Jun-13 Mon 1th-15th CNY New Loans 1-Jun-13 Mon 12:15pm EUR French Industrial Production m/m 1-Jun-13 Mon 11:3pm USD Federal Budget Balance 12-Jun-13 Wed 2:3pm EUR Industrial Production m/m 13-Jun-13 Thu 1:3pm EUR ECB Monthly Bulletin 13-Jun-13 Thu 6:pm USD Core Retail Sales m/m 13-Jun-13 Thu 6:pm USD Retail Sales m/m 13-Jun-13 Thu 6:pm USD Unemployment Claims 13-Jun-13 Thu 6:pm USD Import Prices m/m 13-Jun-13 Thu 7:3pm USD Business Inventories m/m 13-Jun-13 Thu 1:3pm USD 1-y Bond Auction 14-Jun-13 Fri 2:3pm EUR CPI y/y 14-Jun-13 Fri 2:3pm EUR Core CPI y/y 14-Jun-13 Fri Tentative EUR French 1-y Bond Auction 14-Jun-13 Fri Tentative EUR Italian 1-y Bond Auction 14-Jun-13 Fri 6:pm USD PPI m/m 14-Jun-13 Fri 6:pm USD Core PPI m/m 14-Jun-13 Fri 6:pm USD Current Account 14-Jun-13 Fri 6:3pm USD TIC Long-Term Purchases 14-Jun-13 Fri 6:45pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate 14-Jun-13 Fri 6:45pm USD Industrial Production m/m 14-Jun-13 Fri 7:25pm USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 17-Jun-13 Mon 1:3pm EUR Current Account 17-Jun-13 Mon 2:3pm EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment 17-Jun-13 Mon EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment 17-Jun-13 Mon 6:pm USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 18-Jun-13 Tue 6:pm USD Building Permits 18-Jun-13 Tue 6:pm USD Core CPI m/m 18-Jun-13 Tue 6:pm USD CPI m/m 18-Jun-13 Tue 6:pm USD Housing Starts 19-Jun-13 Wed Tentative EUR German 1-y Bond Auction 19-Jun-13 Wed 11:3pm USD FOMC Economic Projections 19-Jun-13 Wed 11:3pm USD FOMC Statement 19-Jun-13 Wed 11:3pm USD Federal Funds Rate 2-Jun-13 Thu 12:am USD FOMC Press Conference 2-Jun-13 Thu 11:3am EUR German PPI m/m 2-Jun-13 Thu 6:pm USD Unemployment Claims 2-Jun-13 Thu 7:3pm USD Existing Home Sales 2-Jun-13 Thu 7:3pm USD Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 27 May

13 R K Global Coverage Snapshot Sl No. Company Mkt Cap EPS PAT Growth % PER (X) Price/BV(x) EV/EBITDA(x) ROE(%) (Rs mn) FY12 FY13E FY12 FY13E FY12 FY13E FY12 FY13E FY12 FY13E FY12 FY13E TP LCP Upside % Rating 1 ACC Ltd % 26.1% % 18.6% % Hold 2 Ambuja Cements Ltd % 31.7% % 15.5% % Hold 3 Ashok Leyland Ltd % -11.7% % 16.4% % Achieved 4 Asian Paints Ltd % 19.% % 33.% % Achieved 5 Bajaj Auto Ltd % -.1% % 44.2% % Achieved 7 Coal India Ltd % -2.% % 29.% % Hold 8 Colgate-Palmolive (India) Ltd % -1.% % 36.% % Hold 9 Dabur India Ltd % 42.% % 39.% % Hold 1 DLF Ltd % 26.5% % 5.5% NR 21.7 NR Achieved 11 Exide Industries Ltd % 29.4% % 18.2% % Hold 13 HCL Technologies Ltd % 22.% % 28.9% % Achieved 14 Hero MotoCorp Ltd % 14.% % 58.% % Hold 15 Hindalco Industries Ltd % -6.% % 6.% % Hold 17 Hindustan Unilever Ltd % 6.% % 13.% % Hold 18 Hindustan Zinc Ltd % 11.% % 2.% % Hold 2 Infosys Ltd % 42.% % 27.% % Hold 21 ITC Ltd % 13.8% % 31.% % Hold 23 Maruti Suzuki India Ltd % 26.5% % 1.9% % Hold 24 Nestle India Ltd % 22.% % 42.% % Hold 25 NMDC Ltd % 3.% % 25.% % Buy 28 Sesa Goa Ltd % -2.% % 1.% % Hold 29 Steel Authority Of India Ltd % 2.3% % 9.5% % Hold 3 Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd % -9.% % 6.% % Buy 31 Tata Consultancy Services Ltd % 2.% % 4.% % Hold 32 Tata Global Beverages Ltd % 27.% % 12.% % Hold 33 Tata Steel Ltd % -.1% %.1% % Hold 34 Titan Industries Ltd % 35.% % 37.% % Hold 35 Ultratech Cement Ltd % 21.3% % 18.5% % Hold 37 Wipro Ltd % 21.% % 25.% % Hold 4 MOIL Ltd % 12.% % 17.% % Buy Source: Ace Equity R K Global Research Estimate, LCP-Last Closing Price as on 1 Dec May

14 Contact Us Flat No. B-12, 4 th Floor, Park Tower 67B Ballygunge Circular Road Kolkata 7 19 Phone: research@rkglobal.in 27 May