Weekly Review April 14, 2017

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1 Weekly Review April 14, 2017

2 Key Economic News International Domestic According to the Office for National Statistics, U.K. consumer inflation stood at 2.3% YoY in Mar 2017, in line with market forecast. Inflation rate stood at the highest level since Sep The fall in airfare prices caused by the timing of Easter was neutralized by rise in food prices. Sequentially, consumer prices increased 0.4% in Mar 2017, higher than the expected 0.3%. The Labor Department reported U.S. consumer prices surprisingly fell by 0.3% MoM in Mar 2017 compared with a rise of 0.1% in the previous month. Prices have dropped for the first time in the last one year. Annually also consumer prices grew 2.4% in Mar 2017, lower than 2.7% in Feb According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's consumer inflation accelerated to 0.9% YoY in Mar 2017 from an increase of 0.8% in the previous month but was lower than market forecast. In a separate report, producer prices rose 7.6% YoY in Mar 2017, faster than market forecast but slower than an increase of 7.8% a month ago. The slower rise in factory prices was due to moderation in commodity prices. India's Consumer Price index (CPI) based inflation during Mar 2017 accelerated to 3.81% YoY from 3.65% in the previous month, contributed by fuel inflation. Fuel inflation stood at 5.56% in Mar However, Consumer Food Price Index based inflationstoodat1.93%inmar2017,muchslower than 2.01% in Feb India s Index of Industrial Production (IIP) contracted 1.2% YoY in Feb 2017 after rising 1.9% in the corresponding period last year due to fall in production in manufacturing sector. Manufacturing sector output declined 2.0% in Feb 2017 compared with 0.6% rise, a year ago. Cumulatively from Apr 2016 to Feb 2017, industrial output grew 0.4% YoY, slower than 2.6% in the year ago period. Government data showed that India s merchandise exports increased at the fastest pace in almost six years in Mar Exports surged 27.59% in Mar to $29.23 billion. However, imports also rose 45.25% to $ billion during the month under review. This led to a trade deficit of $10.43 billion in Mar 2017 compared to a trade deficit of $4.40 billion in March 2016.

3 Domestic Equity Market Markets remained cautious ahead of the Mar quarter earnings season 9300 Nifty 50 YTD Return : 11.87% 0.52% 9700 S&P BSE 100 YTD Return : 13.07% 0.40% Index Values 9050 Index Values 9400 Movement during the Week Mar Mar Apr 17 Movement during the Week Mar Mar Apr S&P BSE Mid Cap YTD Return : 18.30% 0.83% S&P BSE Small Cap YTD Return : 22.08% 1.36% Index Values Movement during the Week Mar Mar Apr 17 Index Values Movement during the Week Mar Mar Apr 17 Source : BSE and NSE Percentage change are on W o W basis and YTD is absolute return.

4 Domestic Equity Market NSE Advance/Decline Ratio Date Advances Declines Advance/Decline Ratio 10 Apr Apr Apr Apr Source: NSE Ratios S&P BSE Sensex Nifty 50 S&P BSE Midcap S&P BSE Smallcap P/E NA NA P/B NA NA Dividend Yield NA NA Source: Reuters Values as on Apr 13, 2017 Indian equity markets traded lower during the week as investors turned cautious ahead of the Mar quarter earnings season, scheduled to start later during the week. Lower industrial production data in Feb and higher Consumer Price Index in Mar added to the woes, while disappointing revenue guidance, and plan to hand out cash to shareholders by an IT major dampened sentiment at the start of the earnings season. Geopolitical concerns, led by U.S. s cruise missile attack at a Syrian airbase and fears of weapon test by North Korea, further contributed to the losses FII Net Investment MF Net Investment Rs. crore Mar Mar 17 3 Apr Apr 17 Source: SEBI

5 Domestic Equity Market Indices Sectoral Indices Last Returns (in %) Closing 1 Wk 1 Mth S&P BSE Auto S&P BSE Bankex S&P BSE CD S&P BSE CG S&P BSE FMCG S&P BSE HC S&P BSE IT S&P BSE Metal S&P BSE Power S&P BSE Teck Source: MFI Explorer Values as on Apr 13, 2017 On the BSE sectoral front, most indices closed in the red. S&P BSE IT ( 4.11%) was the highest loser, followed by S&P BSE Metal ( 4.10%), S&P BSE Teck ( 3.49%),S&P BSE Auto ( 0.82%), S&P BSE CD ( 0.78%)and S&P BSE Power ( 0.64%). Disappointing earnings results of a major IT company for the Mar quarter triggered IT sector s losses, while power stocks were impacted by industry heavyweights receiving Supreme Court s order on compensatory tariff. S&P BSE HC 1 Week Return as of April 13, 2017 S&P BSE FMCG S&P BSE Bankex S&P BSE CG S&P BSE Power S&P BSE CD S&P BSE Auto S&P BSE Teck S&P BSE Metal S&P BSE IT Source: MFI Explorer Weekly Return in (%)

6 Domestic Debt Market Bond yields closed steady as devolvement in weekly debt auction wiped out earlier gains following value buying Debt Indicators (%) Current Value 1 Wk Ago 1 Mth Ago 6 Mth Ago Call Rate Day T Bill % 2021, (5 Yr GOI) % 2026, (10 Yr GOI) Source: Reuters Values as on Apr 13, 2017 Yield in % Yr Benchmark Bond ( % ) 10 Apr 11 Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr Bond yields closed unchanged during the week under review. Yields rose amid growing geopolitical tensions following U.S. missile attack on a Syrian airbase and North Korea's advancing nuclear weapons program. An unexpected partial devolvement of the benchmark paper at the weekly debt auction also dampened market sentiment. However, most of the losses were neutralised as market participants in the interim resorted to bargain hunting and bought debt securities at lower prices. Yieldonthe10 year benchmark bond (6.97% GS 2026) closed steady at 6.82%. During the session, bond yields moved in the region of 6.73% to 6.89%. Source: CCIL

7 Domestic Debt Market Maturity G Sec Yield (%) Corporate Yield (%) Spread bps 1 Year Year Year Year Source: Reuters Values as on Apr 13, 2017 Yields on gilt securities fell across the maturities in the range of 3 bps to 16 bps, barring 30 year paper that increased 4 bps. Yieldon10 and 24 year maturities closed steady. Corporate bond yields fell across the maturities in the range of 3 bps to 8 bps. The maximum fall was witnessed on 3 to 5 years maturities and 10 year paper and the minimum on 1 year maturity. Spread between AAA corporate bond and gilt contracted on 5 and 10 year maturity by 2 bps and 5 bps, respectively. Spread across the remaining maturities either closed steady or increased by up to 5 bps India Yield Curve Shift (%) (W o W) 6 Yield in % Change in bps Mths 6 Mths 1 Yr 5 Yrs 10 Yrs 20 Yrs 30 Yrs Source: Reuters Change in bps 13 Apr Apr 17 8

8 International Markets Dow Jones YTD Return : 2.87% 0.98% U.S. markets remained largely under pressure amid lingering geopolitical concerns with the launch of a U.S. missile strike at an airbase in Syria. Index Values Movement during the week Mar Mar Apr 17 Source: Reuters Besides, U.S. hinted at preventive strikes with conventional weapons against North Korea in the event of another nuclear weapons test by the same. Additionally, U.S. President s comments on the strength of U.S. dollar and the Fed s stance on interest rates dampened market sentiments. Europe Indices Last Closing Returns (in %) 1 Wk 1 Mth YTD CAC 40 Index DAX Index FTSE Source: Reuters Values as on Apr 13, 2017 European markets too felt the heat of the ongoing geopolitical tensions. Concerns over the political situation in France further soured investor sentiment. Meanwhile, the U.S. President s comment on the dollar movement and interest rates made investors jittery ahead of the long Easter holiday weekend. On the economic front, a decline in eurozone industrial production in Feb 2017 hit markets.

9 International Markets Return Value as of April 13, 2017 Hang Seng Asian markets were no exception to the adverse effect of the geopolitical tensions. Strait Times Nikkei* Source: MFI Explorer * As on April 14, Weekly Return in (%) % Change YTD % Change week Uncertainty over the French election made investors cautious. Also, data from a government report revealed that Japan s machinery orders rebounded less than expected in Feb 2017, thereby hurting sentiment. Meanwhile, losses were restricted by the upbeat Chinese trade data for Mar 2017.

10 Commodities Global Commodity Prices Rebased to Mar Mar 17 4 Apr Apr 17 Source: Reuters Performance of various commodities Commodities Global Commodity Movement Last Closing 1 Wk Ago Brent Crude($/Barrel) Gold ($/Oz) Gold (Rs/10 gm)* Silver ($/Oz) Silver (Rs/Kg)* % 3.12% 2.52% Gold Spot ($/Oz) Silver Spot ($/Oz) Brent ($/bbl) Source: Reuters Values as on April 14, 2017 *Values as on April 13, 2017 Gold Gold prices remained strong as rising geopolitical tensions in North Korea, Syria, and Afghanistanhelpedboostthesafehavenappeal of the metal. Uncertainty of the first round of French Presidential elections also supported prices. Additionally, the U.S. Federal Reserve chair iterated that the central bank would raise interest rates gradually in order to sustain full employment and near 2% inflation. Crude Brent crude prices traded higher on expectations that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) would extend its output cut programme for another six months. As per reports, Saudi Arabia has told OPEC officials that it wants to extend the agreement to cut output for another six months. American Petroleum Institute further reported that U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly fell 1.3 million barrels at the end of last week. Baltic Dry Index The Baltic Dry Index gained during the week owing to improved capesize and panamax activities.

11 1.81% Currency Currency Prices (in terms of INR) Rebased to Source: RBI Movement of Rupee vs. Other Currencies Currency Currency Movement Mar Mar Apr 17 USD GBP Euro JPY Last Closing 1 Wk Ago U.S. Dollar Pound Sterling EURO JPY (per 100 Yen) % 0.71% 0.12% 0.09% Source: RBI Figures in INR, Values as on Apr 13, 2017 Rupee The Indian rupee rose against the greenback after the U.S. President s commented on greenback s strength and suggested keeping interest rates lower. However, gains were capped amid growing geopolitical tensions, which hurt investors appetite for emerging market assets. Euro Euro rose against the U.S. dollar after the U.S. President said that stronger dollar would hurt the economy and stated his preference for keeping interest rates low. However, profit booking capped the gains. Pound Pound gained notably against the weak U.S. dollar after data showed stronger than expected U.K. wage growth in three months to Feb Data showing that U.K. inflation in Mar 2017 remained above Bank of England's 2% target in Mar 2017 further boosted the pound. Yen Yen surged against the weak U.S. dollar as its safe haven appeal improved on concerns over persisting geopolitical risk in the world. Gains were extended after U.S. President suggested to keep interest rates low.

12 Key Mutual Funds News According to data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI), inflows into mutual funds for FY17 stood at Rs lakh crore. Most of the investment was into income and liquid schemes. According to AMFI data, gold ETF section witnessed an outflow of Rs. 775 crore in FY17, while gilt witnessed Rs. 3,306 crore of outflow during the same period. However, highest inflow witnessed by income category (Rs. 120,633 crore) was followed by liquid/money market segment (Rs. 95,826 crore) in FY17. The asset base of gold funds stood at Rs. 5,480 crore at the end of Mar 2017, while the asset under management (AUM) for income and equity segment stood at Rs. 7,43,783 crore and Rs. 4,82,138 crore, respectively, during Mar. According to media reports, the newspapers and distributors remain the major sources of information for mutual fund investors, in spite of mutual fund industry spending a large sum of money on television and digital platforms to spread awareness. The Securities and Exchange Board of India, in a survey called SEBI Investor Survey (SIS) 2015, has found that many investors prefer traditional channels such as newspapers, distributors, and SID to gather information about mutual funds. HDFC Mutual Fund announced change in the provisions of Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) facility and Systematic Withdrawal Advantage Plan (SWAP) in its schemes. Presently, the investors can enrol for SIP and SWAP facility with frequency, only by choosing specified date/s i.e., 1st, 5th, 10th, 15th, 20th, 25th or all 6 dates as SIP debit date and SWAP withdrawal date. However, investors can now choose any date, as applicable, of his / her preference as SIP debit date and SWAP withdrawal date. The changes are effective from Apr 21, HDFC Mutual fund renamed HDFC Short Term Plan as HDFC Regular Savings Fund. All other features including scheme type, investment objective, asset allocation pattern, investment strategy, and terms and conditions of the Scheme shall remain unchanged.

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13 Disclaimer All information contained in this document has been obtained by ICRA Online Limited from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. Although reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information herein is true, such information is provided as is without any warranty of any kind, and ICRA Online Limited in particular, makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of any such information. All information contained herein must be construed solely as statements of opinion, and ICRA Online Limited shall not be liable for any losses incurred by users from any use of this document or its contents in any manner. Opinions expressed in this document are not the opinions of our holding company, ICRA Limited (ICRA), and should not be construed as any indication of credit rating or grading of ICRA for any instruments that have been issued or are to be issued by any entity. This newsletter is for customer information only and does not constitute an investment advice or an offer to purchase or sell securities. Persons accessing this document are advised to obtain independent professional advice wherever necessary. All rights of the newsletter are reserved with ICRA Online Ltd, the provider of the newsletter. Trust Plutus Wealth Managers (India) Private Limited and TrustPlutus Family Office & Investment Advisers (India) Private Limited is not responsible for anyerrororomissioninthedataorforanylossessuffered on account of information contained in this newsletter. Mutual fund investments are subject to market risk. Please read the offer document before investing into mutual funds. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose.

Weekly Review June 29, 2018

Weekly Review June 29, 2018 Key Economic News International Domestic According to the Commerce Department report, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of U.S. rose 2.0% YoY in the Mar quarter of 2018, slower