The Banking Industry after the Financial Tsunami: A Hong Kong Perspective
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1 The Banking Industry after the Financial Tsunami: A Hong Kong Perspective Presented by Prof. Frederick Ma
2 Change in Power - Rise of Chinese Bank Top Ten of the Banking Industry by Market Capitalization 1. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China 2. China Construction Bank 3. HSBC Holdings PLC 4. JP Morgan Chase 5. Agricultural Bank of China 6. Bank of China 7. Bank of America 8. Wells Fargo & Co 9. CitiGroup INC 10. Rodovid Bank Source: Bloomberg, as of 31 Aug 2010
3 Change in Power - Rise of Chinese Bank China Presence in Top 500 Banks by Market Capitalization Japan 5.0% Australia Canada 4.4% 4.6% Brazil 4.8% Switzerland 3.0% Others 25.1% UK 8.1% US 13.9% Source: Bloomberg, as of 31 August 2010 Europe 14.7% China 16.5%
4 Change in Power - Rise of Chinese Bank Overseas Acquisition and Expansion of Chinese Bank Acquisition ICBC acquires ICBC Asia (10 Aug 2010) BOC acquires Heritage Fund Management SA (23 Jul 2008) CMB acquires Wing Lung Bank (2 June 2008) ICBC acquires Standard Bank Group (25 Oct 2007) Joint Venture BOC & Temasek Holding (15 Mar 2010) Bank of Beijing & Bank of Nova Scotia (28 Aug 2008) CCB & Bank of America (6 Sep 2007) ABC & Credit Agricole SA (23 Sep 2006) Source: Bloomberg
5 Changes in Business Mix (Global) Trading Activity of Complex Products Trading Activity of Plain Vanilla Products Notional amounts outstanding Notional amounts outstanding (USD, in Billions) Trading Activity of Credit Default Swaps (USD, in Billions) Trading Activity of Foreign Exchange Contracts 65,000 65,000 62,983 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 28,838 42,581 57,894 57,403 41,883 36,046 32,693 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 31,081 31,364 38,091 40,179 48,645 56,238 44,200 48,775 49,196 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 10,211 13,908 20,352 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 5, H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 2009 Notional amounts outstanding (USD, in Billions) Trading Activity of Equity-linked contracts Notional amounts outstanding (USD, in Billions) Trading Activity of Interest Rate Contracts 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 4,551 5,793 6,782 7,485 8,590 8,469 10,177 6,155 6,615 6, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,793 2, ,000 50, H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H H 2009 Source: Bank of International Settlement
6 Changes in Business Mix (Global) Percentage change at annual rate 8.00% Consumer Credit Outstanding in US (Billions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted) 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr 1H % -6.00% -8.00% Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
7 Changes in Business Mix (Global) Fall of Investment Banks De-leveraging & Written Down of Market Capital Market cap by 40% (on average) after crisis I-banks used to be highly leveraged: Bear Stearns 30X (equity) Falls Bear Stearns acquired by JP Morgan Chase (16 Mar 2008) Merrill Lynch acquired by Bank of America (14 Sep 2008) Lehman Brothers bankrupted (15 Sep 2008) Transformation Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley transform from independent investment banks into commercial banking holding companies. (22 Sep 2008) Source: Bloomberg
8 Changes/Challenges of Business Mix (HK) Loan Growth by Type Loan Growth by Sector (Use in HK) 50.0% 40.0% L o a n G r o w t h Y o Y ( % ) 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% L o a n G r o w t h Y o Y ( % ) 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% -30.0% 'Dec 07 'Jun 08 'Dec 08 'Jun 09 'Dec 09 Trade Finance Loan for use in HK Loan for use outside HK Source: HKMA -40.0% 'Dec 07 'Jun 08 'Dec 08 'Jun 09 'Dec 09 Mortgage Financial Concerns Construction, Property Development/Investment Credit Card
9 Changes/Challenges of Business Mix (HK) Low Interest Rate Environment Pressure on Net Interest Margin(%) 2.00% 7.00% Retail Banks Net Interest Margin 1.90% 1.80% 1.70% 1.60% 1.50% 1.40% 6.00% 5.00% 4.00% 3.00% 2.00% 1.00% 1M HIBOR 1.30% 1Q 07 2Q 07 3Q 07 4Q 07 1Q 08 2Q 08 3Q 08 4Q 08 1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q % Source: HKMA Retail banks net interest margin quarterly annualised ( LHS ) 1M HIBOR quarterly average ( RHS ) Year Bank HSBC HSB BOCHK BEA DBS HK Wing Hang Yr % 2.23% 2.07% 1.90% 2.36% 1.90% Yr % 2.36% 2.00% 1.85% 2.02% 1.84% Yr % 1.90% 1.69% 1.80% 2.05% 1.82% Source: Banks & Fitch
10 Changes/Challenges of Business Mix (HK) Banks strike for Loan Growth (HKD, in Billions) Loans in HK Loans outside HK Trade Finance Others 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Dec 2004 Dec 2005 Dec 2006 Dec 2007 Dec 2008 Dec 2009 Source: HKMA
11 Changes/Challenges of Business Mix (HK) (RMB, in Millions) Expansion of RMB Business 110, T o t a l R M B D e p o s it s 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Sep-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Jul N o o f A u t h o r iz e d In s t i t u t i o n s Source: HKMA Total RMB Deposit (LHS) No of Authorized Institution (RHS)
12 Challenges from Current Business Mix Growth opportunities: Private Banking Emerging wealth management business from High-Net- Worth-Individuals from Mainland China Industry responses in face of new opportunities: Major banks to increase headcounts in Asia-Pacific to serve the growing high-earning segment
13 Change in Regulatory Environment (US) Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (Effective 21 Jul 2010) Promote the financial stability of the United States by improving accountability and transparency in the financial system To end "too big to fail" To protect the American taxpayer by ending bailouts To protect consumers from abusive financial services practices
14 Change in Regulatory Environment (US) Key provisions: Increasing monitoring, supervision and investor protection Establishment of Financial Stability Oversight Council, Office of Financial Research & of Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection Enhanced capital requirement and leverage limit Expanded scope of liquidation to prevent too big to fail Orderly Liquidation Authority Strengthened Volcker Rule and bank regulation Prohibitions on proprietary trading and investment in & sponsoring PE/ HF Increased regulation of OTC Swap Market From OTC to exchange traded
15 Change in Regulatory Environment (EC) New regulatory bodies created on 23 Sep 2009 with increased regulatory power European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) European System of Financial Supervisors (ESFS) Establishment of European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) Includes provisions to prohibit financial products when there is a risk to investor protection Widens scope of the ability to develop technical binding standards
16 Change in Regulatory Environment (UK) From Financial Services Authority (FSA) to Bank of England (BOE) Announcement on 16 Jun 2010 of the plan to abolish the FSA & separate its responsibilities to new agencies & BOE New bodies that will be in operation by the end of 2012 Financial Policy Committee Prudential Regulation Authority Consumer Protection Markets Authority Banking Commission
17 Change in Regulatory Environment (HK) Guideline on Remuneration System HKMA - Adopt Fixed and Variable Incentives, Mix of instruments or Long Term Performance - Include both financial and non-financial factors - Impact on AI s supervisory CAMEL rating and existing minimum capital requirements - Enhance public disclosure of remuneration - Expect to take prompt action and achieve consistency with its principles within 2010 Source: HKMA & SFC
18 Change in Regulatory Environment (HK) Business practices (Wealth Management) HKMA - Physical Segregation of Business - Full Audio Recording for Investment Transactions - Enhanced Suitability - Pre-investment Cooling Off Period (PICOP) SFC - New Structured Investment Product Handbook - Cooling Off Period for Long Tenor Products - Investors Characterization
19 Latest Development in Regulatory Environment The Basel III Accord (Basel Committee on Banking Supervision) Time Frame phase in from 1 January 2013 through to 1 January 2019 Banks in HK are not much affected in view of current capital level (average Total Capital = 15.7%, Common Equity 10.4%) Source: Bank of International Settlement
20 Conclusions A HK Perspective We are faced with the challenges - To repair professional/industry image - To regain investor/consumer confidence - To adjust business strategies in light of more stringent regulatory & operating environment
21 Conclusions A HK Perspective Yet with the new opportunities - Increased mobility: Cross-border businesses & new potential customer group - Mainlanders - The Internationalization of RMB: - Hong Kong s role as the offshore RMB center - Potential development of a whole range of RMB products What to expect? - Local banking industry will continue to be competitive - Mainland Chinese banks presence will be stronger in the future (M&A?)
22 Thank You
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