1Q16 JANUS EQUITY OUTLOOK Ski Report Variable Conditions, Take It Slowly

Transcription

1 1Q16 JANUS EQUITY OUTLOOK Ski Report Variable Conditions, Take It Slowly

2 We re happy to be away from Wall Street and the consensus views of crowds. And on winter weekends, we re happier yet to be in the heart of ski country. In our regular equity outlook, we combine investing and skiing to map the current market terrain. Like a ski day, markets offer a mixture of riskier paths and easier ones. We ll point out the positive and negative themes driving equities, and tips to navigating those themes more effectively. Black runs are themes that present key risks to equity markets. Be careful and alert before proceeding. The blue runs highlight issues that are less dangerous, but not without pitfalls. These are attractive runs but proceed with care. Green runs signal easier paths, but watch for crowds and stay away from the pack. 2

3 The Black Runs Industrial Sector: Still tough going Commodities and High Yield: A possible signal 3

4 The Blue Runs Emerging Markets: Age of Transition Energy: Better Days Ahead U.S. Market: Growth and Momentum 4

5 The Green Runs Europe: Confidence Rising Central Banks: Accommodation Continues Innovation: The Age of Disruption 5

6 The Ride So Far 8.00% Major U.S. Indices 15.00% U.S. Sectors 6.00% 10.00% 4.00% 5.00% 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% S&P 500 Russell 1000 Index Russell 3000 Index Russell 2000 Index Russell 1000 Growth Index Russell 1000 Value Index 0.00% -5.00% % % S&P 500 Energy S&P 500 Health Care S&P 500 Financials S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary S&P 500 Consumer Staples S&P 500 Information Technology S&P 500 Utilities S&P 500 Industrials S&P 500 Materials S&P 500 Telecommunication Services -4.00% % -6.00% QTD YTD Total&Return&through&12/31/15& % QTD YTD Total&Return&through&12/31/15& 15.00% Non U.S. and Global Indices 5.00% Other assets 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% -5.00% % % MSCI World MSCI ACWI MSCI Europe MSCI EAFE MSCI Asia Pacific MSCI Emerging Markets 0.00% -5.00% % % % % % WTI GOLDS Comdty CRB Commodity Index VIX Index Barclays US Corporate High Yield Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD Barclays Global Agg Corporate Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD EUR-USD USD-YEN % QTD YTD % Total&Return&through&12/31/15& QTD YTD Total&Return&through&12/31/15& Source: Janus, Bloomberg.

7 The Black Runs Black runs are themes that present key risks to equity markets. Be careful and alert before proceeding. 7

8 Industrial Sector: Tough going Industrials and materials have poor earnings season China slowdown and U.S. dollar strength add pressure Cost structures have protected earnings so far, but pressure remains Percent of S&P 500 firms with negative 3Q surprises Oil Price and Energy Capex 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Materials Industrials Utilities Consumer Discretionary Energy All Securities Consumer Staples Financials Information Technology Sales EPS Health Care Telecommunication S&P 500 Exploration & Production Companies' Capital Expenditures (in millions) $ $ $ $ $ $80.00 $60.00 $40.00 $20.00 $0.00 $ $ $80.00 $60.00 $40.00 $20.00 $0.00 West Texas Intermediate Oil Price 12/1/99 7/1/00 2/1/01 9/1/01 4/1/02 11/1/02 6/1/03 1/1/04 8/1/04 3/1/05 10/1/05 5/1/06 12/1/06 7/1/07 2/1/08 9/1/08 4/1/09 11/1/09 6/1/10 1/1/11 8/1/11 3/1/12 10/1/12 5/1/13 12/1/13 7/1/14 2/1/15 9/1/15 Source: Janus, Bloomberg. 8

9 Ski Tip: Seek Self-Help, Select Industries Auto sales (in millions) Seasonal Adjusted Annual U.S. Auto Sales (millions of units) 9/30/04 1/31/05 5/31/05 9/30/05 1/31/06 5/31/06 9/30/06 1/31/07 5/31/07 9/30/07 1/31/08 5/31/08 9/30/08 1/31/09 5/31/09 9/30/09 1/31/10 5/31/10 9/30/10 1/31/11 5/31/11 9/30/11 1/31/12 5/31/12 9/30/12 1/31/13 5/31/13 9/30/13 1/31/14 5/31/14 9/30/14 1/31/15 5/31/15 9/30/15 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% U.S. Construction Spending Yearly % Change 12/31/05 4/30/06 8/31/06 12/31/06 4/30/07 8/31/07 12/31/07 4/30/08 8/31/08 12/31/08 4/30/09 8/31/09 12/31/09 4/30/10 8/31/10 12/31/10 4/30/11 8/31/11 12/31/11 4/30/12 8/31/12 12/31/12 4/30/13 8/31/13 12/31/13 4/30/14 8/31/14 12/31/14 4/30/15 8/31/15 Way Down Look for recurring revenue, margin expansion from self-help or European exposure. Construction and autos remain pockets of strength within the sector. Be cautious on companies overly exposed to energy or Chinese manufacturing. Source: Janus, Bloomberg. 9

10 Commodities and High Yield: Negative signals for equities? High-yield market weakness can precede problems with equities Weak commodities can also portend weakness This time, the link between equities and high yield or commodities is unclear High Yield vs. S&P 500 Commodities vs. S&P " 1200" S&P 500 Index Level 2000" 1500" 1000" 500" 0" BofA Merrill Lynch High Yield Index S&P 500 1/1/95" 8/1/95" 3/1/96" 10/1/96" 5/1/97" 12/1/97" 7/1/98" 2/1/99" 9/1/99" 4/1/00" 11/1/00" 6/1/01" 1/1/02" 8/1/02" 3/1/03" 10/1/03" 5/1/04" 12/1/04" 7/1/05" 2/1/06" 9/1/06" 4/1/07" 11/1/07" 6/1/08" 1/1/09" 8/1/09" 3/1/10" 10/1/10" 5/1/11" 12/1/11" 7/1/12" 2/1/13" 9/1/13" 4/1/14" 11/1/14" 6/1/15" Bank of America Merrill Lynch High Yield Index 1000" 800" 600" 400" 200" 0" S&P 500 Index Level S&P 500 Thomson Reuters/Core Commodity CRB Commodity Index 1/1/95 9/1/95 5/1/96 1/1/97 9/1/97 5/1/98 1/1/99 9/1/99 5/1/00 1/1/01 9/1/01 5/1/02 1/1/03 9/1/03 5/1/04 1/1/05 9/1/05 5/1/06 1/1/07 9/1/07 5/1/08 1/1/09 9/1/09 5/1/10 1/1/11 9/1/11 5/1/12 1/1/13 9/1/13 5/1/14 1/1/15 9/1/ Thomson Reuters/Core Commodity CRB Commodity Index 10 Source: Janus, Bloomberg.

11 Ski Tip: Don t rely on prior indicators China Consumption as % of World High Yield Index Energy and Corporate 70.00% % % 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% Index&Level& % Copper Zinc Aluminum Nickel 75 12/31/14 1/31/15 2/28/15 3/31/15 4/30/15 5/31/15 6/30/15 7/31/15 8/31/15 9/30/15 10/31/15 11/30/15 12/31/15 Bloomberg USD High Yield Corporate Bond Index (12/31/14 =100) Bloomberg USD High Yield Corporate Bond Index Energy (12/31/14 = 100) Way Down High yield spreads are reasonable. Weakness is limited to the energy and materials sectors. A weak energy sector is a net benefit to consumers. In 2008 high yield markets indicated troubles in the housing market and financial sector, which have a broader impact on the economy. Commodity weakness is due to overcapacity and softening demand from China, which has become a massive consumer of commodities. Source: Janus, Bloomberg. 11

12 The Blue Runs The blue runs highlight issues that are less dangerous, but not without pitfalls. These are attractive runs but proceed with care. 12

13 Emerging Markets: Age of Transition China is transitioning to a consumer-led economy The transition occurs amid a slowdown for industrials, manufacturing Emerging market health varies: Brazil struggles but India is improving 12% Brazil and India Inflation Rates 20% Consumer vs. Industrial Activity in China 11% 10% 9% 8% 15% 10% 5% 7% 6% 5% 4% 4/1/14 5/1/14 6/1/14 7/1/14 8/1/14 9/1/14 10/1/14 11/1/14 12/1/14 1/1/15 Brazil 2/1/15 3/1/15 4/1/15 India 5/1/15 6/1/15 7/1/15 8/1/15 9/1/15 10/1/15 11/1/15 12/1/15 Source: Janus, Bloomberg, FactSet, International Data Corp. 13 0% -5% -10% -15% Retail Sales Chg 9/30/12 11/30/12 1/31/13 3/31/13 5/31/13 7/31/13 9/30/13 11/30/13 1/31/14 3/31/14 Electricity Demand 5/31/14 7/31/14 9/30/14 11/30/14 1/31/15 3/31/15 5/31/15 7/31/15 9/30/15 11/30/15

14 Ski Tip: Focus on secular drivers 12/31/13 1/31/14 2/28/14 3/31/14 4/30/14 Way Down China Automobile Sales (Annual % change) 5/31/14 6/30/14 7/31/14 8/31/14 9/30/14 10/31/14 11/30/14 12/31/14 1/31/15 2/28/15 3/31/15 4/30/15 5/31/15 6/30/15 7/31/15 8/31/15 9/30/15 10/31/15 11/30/15 In China, avoid areas tied to manufacturing and infrastructure. Secular themes tied to the Chinese consumer offer opportunity amid volatility. The Chinese consumer remains strong, bolstered by government policy. Government and economic reform in India make it a bright spot among emerging markets. 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 12/1/12 3/1/13 Indian Current Account Deficit (% of GDP) 6/1/13 9/1/13 12/1/13 3/1/14 6/1/14 9/1/14 12/1/14 3/1/15 6/1/15 9/1/15 Source: Janus, Bloomberg, International Data Corp. 14

15 Energy: Better Days Ahead U.S. reduces oil production, slowly Lower maintenance expenditures are leading to steeper oil field decline rates Demand is still growing globally Wait: Supply and demand could come back into balance in 2017 Total U.S. oil rigs /30/05 5/31/06 Source: Janus, Bloomberg U.S. Rig Count vs. U.S. Oil Production US-based rigs U.S. production (millions of barrels per day) 11/30/06 5/31/07 11/30/07 5/30/08 11/28/08 5/29/09 11/30/09 5/31/10 11/30/10 5/31/11 11/30/11 5/31/12 11/30/12 5/31/13 11/29/13 5/30/14 11/28/14 5/29/15 11/30/ Total U.S. Production (millions of barrels per day) Total demand (millions of barrels per day) World Oil Demand (millions of barrels per day) 9/30/2006 3/31/2007 9/30/2007 3/31/2008 9/30/2008 3/31/2009 9/30/2009 3/31/2010 9/30/2010 3/31/2011 9/30/2011 3/31/2012 9/30/2012 3/31/2013 9/30/2013 3/31/2014 9/30/2014 3/31/2015 9/30/

16 Ski Tip: Reduce price sensitivity S&P MLP Index S&P MLP Index Level /31/14 1/31/15 2/28/15 3/31/15 4/30/15 5/31/15 6/30/15 7/31/15 8/31/15 9/30/15 10/31/15 11/30/15 12/31/15 Way Down Be patient, avoid speculation and balance sheet risk. Pipeline companies are more promising but stock prices haven t held up. With a longer term outlook, we believe service companies will benefit from consolidation. Source: Janus, Bloomberg. 16

17 U.S. Market: Growth and Momentum Multiples are reasonable for a low interest rate, low inflation environment P/E multiples do not always reflect underlying earnings growth Momentum around earnings growth have been driving stocks 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% S&P 500 Utilities Healthcare Earnings Growth and PE by S&P Sector Materials Industrials Info Tech Energy Cons Staples Cons Discretionary Telecoms Financials P/E Ratio Momentum(Helps( U.S. Momentum Index Momentum(Hurts( -40.0% EPS 1 YR Growth EPS 3 YR Growth P/E (RHS) /1/05 2/1/06 6/1/06 10/1/06 2/1/07 6/1/07 10/1/07 2/1/08 6/1/08 10/1/08 2/1/09 6/1/09 10/1/09 2/1/10 6/1/10 10/1/10 2/1/11 6/1/11 10/1/11 2/1/12 6/1/12 10/1/12 2/1/13 6/1/13 10/1/13 2/1/14 6/1/14 10/1/14 2/1/15 6/1/15 10/1/15 Source: Janus, Bloomberg Momentum Index combines long position in highest ranked momentum stocks, using Barra Factors, and shorts lowest ranked momentum stocks 17

18 Ski Tip: Stock picking could matter Decomposition of Returns M&A Activity ($ billions) % 30.00% 15.00% 0.00% % Deals above $1 billion estimated % % Div Yld EPS Chg P/E Chg Way Down Don t rely on multiple expansion to drive returns Growth matters but be valuation sensitive. Find the competitively advantaged business M&A can continue. Financial engineering will give way to old-fashion earnings growth. Source: Janus, Bloomberg. 18

19 The Green Runs Green runs signal easier paths. But watch for crowds and stay away from the pack. 19

20 Europe: Confidence rising A valuation discount to the U.S. with higher growth and yield Economy is firming Earnings per share growth can outpace gross domestic product growth Eurozone Growth and Confidence European Loan Growth Annual Percentage Change 1.5% 0 20% 1% 0.5% 0% -0.5% -1% -1.5% -2% -2.5% -3% -3.5% 12/31/05 6/30/06 12/31/06 6/30/07 Source: Janus, Bloomberg. Eurozone GDP Growth 12/31/07 6/30/08 12/31/08 6/30/09 12/31/09 6/30/10 12/31/10 Eurozone Confidence (RHS) 6/30/11 12/31/11 6/30/12 12/31/12 6/30/13 12/31/13 6/30/14 12/31/14 6/30/ % 10% 5% 0% -5% 6/30/06 12/29/06 6/29/07 12/31/07 6/30/08 12/31/08 6/30/09 12/31/09 6/30/10 12/31/10 6/30/11 12/30/11 6/29/12 12/31/12 6/28/13 12/31/13 6/30/14 12/31/14 6/30/15 12/31/15 20

21 Ski Tip: Look for Operating Leverage or Economic Sensitivity 15 Europe vs. U.S. Operating Margins 20% Europe Financials Return Ratios (MSCI European Finacial Index) 1% Operating Margins /29/2002 9/30/2002 3/31/2003 9/30/2003 3/31/2004 9/30/2004 3/31/2005 9/30/2005 3/31/2006 9/29/2006 3/30/2007 9/28/2007 3/31/2008 9/30/2008 3/31/2009 9/30/2009 3/31/2010 9/30/2010 3/31/2011 9/30/2011 3/30/2012 9/28/2012 3/29/2013 9/30/2013 3/31/2014 9/30/2014 3/31/2015 9/30/ /31/2015 Margin Gap MSCI Europe companies S&P 500 Index companies 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Return on Equity Return on Assets 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0% 0% 1/1/07 7/1/07 1/1/08 7/1/08 1/1/09 7/1/09 1/1/10 7/1/10 1/1/11 7/1/11 1/1/12 7/1/12 1/1/13 7/1/13 1/1/14 7/1/14 1/1/15 7/1/15-0.2% Way Down European companies have room to expand margins. Look for operating improvements. Look for beneficiaries of firming property markets and overall economic health. Banks and industrials (autos) appear attractive: Higher dividends and margins. Source: Janus, Bloomberg. 21

22 Central Banks: Accommodation Continues Fed s slow rate increases won t dampen equity outlook We expect two increases not four in next 12 months Central banks around the world remain accommodative Global Policy Rate (%) Source: Janus/Bloomberg. 22

23 Ski Tip: Higher rates often don t impact equities S&P 500 has risen 85% of time in 12 months after increase in Fed Funds Way Down Ignore volatility tied to interest rate speculation. Global equity valuations are attractive. Be selective: Companies must now perform. Source: Janus, Bloomberg. 23

24 Innovation: The age of disruption Health care: Great science meets great demand Technology: Businesses are at an inflection point for moving to the cloud Other industries, such as consumer and media, should also reward innovation FDA Novel Drug Approvals by Year Spending Mix in IT % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Traditional IT Public Cloud Private Cloud Source: Janus/Bloomberg, International Data Corp., Washington Analysis, LLC. (FDA data as of 12/12/2015) 24

25 Ski Tip: Disruption calls for careful selection Way Down Innovators grow regardless of the economic backdrop. Disruption means winners and losers. Be selective. Source: Janus, Bloomberg, Netflix Corp. 25

26 Off piste: Items on the edge to consider Possible Future Headwinds Europe refugee crisis leads to the rise of nationalistic political parties The Fed raises too fast for U.S. economy Chinese wages and job growth slow, leading to unrest Bureaucracy wins in India A strong dollar and weak China squeezes the U.S. market A bond crisis spills to rest of the markets Potential Future Tailwinds European growth surprises to the upside and markets revalue Rising rates signal a strong U.S. economy; housing and wage growth continue China is more inventory correction than sustained slowdown Cyclical rally: Value catches up to growth 26

27 Key Takeaways China: A consuming story Europe: Earnings growth can exceed economic growth U.S.: Stock picking could help Overall: Follow the stocks, not the trends. 27

28 Disclosures The views presented are as of 12/31/15. They are for information purposes only and should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any security or market sector. No forecasts can be guaranteed. The opinions and examples are meant as an illustration of broader themes, are not an indication of trading intent, and are subject to change at any time due to changes in market or economic conditions. There is no guarantee that the information supplied is accurate, complete, or timely, nor are there any warranties with regards to the results obtained from its use. It is not intended to indicate or imply in any manner that any illustration/example mentioned is now or was ever held in any Janus portfolio, or that current or past results are indicative of future profitability or expectations. As with all investments, there are inherent risks to be considered. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal and fluctuation of value. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Statements in this piece that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance of a mutual fund or strategy and of the markets in general and statements of a fund s plans and objectives for future operations are forward-looking statements. Actual results or events may differ materially from those projected, estimated, assumed or anticipated in any such forward-looking statements. Important factors that could result in such differences, in addition to the other factors noted with such forward-looking statements, include general economic conditions such as inflation, recession and interest rates. S&P 500 Index measures broad U.S. equity performance. Russell 1000 Index measures the performance of the 1,000 largest companies in the Russell 3000 Index. Russell 3000 Index measures the performance of the largest 3000 U.S. companies representing approximately 98% of the investable U.S. equity market. Russell 2000 Index is an index that measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index. Russell 1000 Growth Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with higher price-to-book ratios and higher forecasted growth values. Russell 1000 Value Index measures the performance of those Russell 1000 companies with lower price-to-book ratios and lower forecasted growth values. MSCI World IndexSM is a market capitalization weighted index composed of companies representative of the market structure of Developed Market countries in North America, Europe and the Asia/Pacific Region. The index includes reinvestment of dividends, net of foreign withholding taxes. MSCI All Country World IndexSM is an unmanaged, free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index composed of stocks of companies located in countries throughout the world. It is designed to measure equity market performance in global developed and emerging markets. The index includes reinvestment of dividends, net of foreign withholding taxes. MSCI Europe Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of the developed markets in Europe. It consists of the following 16 developed market country indices: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East) Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index designed to measure developed market equity performance. The MSCI EAFE Index is composed of companies representative of the market structure of developed market countries. The index includes reinvestment of dividends, net of foreign withholding taxes. MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets. The Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX ) shows the market s expectation of 30-day volatility. It is constructed using the implied volatilities of a wide range of S&P 500 index options and is a widely used measure of market risk and is often referred to as the investor fear" gauge. The VIX volatility methodology is the property of CBOE, which is not affiliated with Janus. Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Bond Index measures the US dollar-denominated, high yield, fixed-rate corporate bond market. Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based measure of the global investment grade fixed-rate debt markets. The MSCI AC Asia Pacific Index captures large and mid cap representation across 5 Developed Markets countries* and 8 Emerging Markets countries* in the Asia Pacific region. With 1,022 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country. The NASDAQ Biotechnology Index contains securities of NASDAQ-listed companies classified according to the Industry Classification Benchmark as either Biotechnology or Pharmaceuticals which also meet other eligibility criteria. The NASDAQ Biotechnology Index is calculated under a modified capitalization-weighted methodology. The S&P MLP Index includes both master limited partnerships and publicly traded limited liability companies which have a similar legal structure to MLPs and share the same tax benefits as MLPs Janus Capital Group Inc. is a global asset manager offering individual investors and institutional clients complementary asset management disciplines. Janus Capital Management LLC serves as investment adviser. Janus is a registered trademark of Janus International Holding LLC. Janus International Holding LLC. C