Southeast Asian Economic Outlook 2010

Transcription

1 Southeast Asian Economic Outlook 2010 Kensuke Tanaka Project Manager and Economist OECD Development Centre Asia and Pacific Desk SAEO Presentation MPDD seminar series UNESCAP Januar 2011 Three regional economic outlooks African Economic Outlook since 2001 Latin American Economic Outlook since 2007 Southeast Asian Economic Outlook since

2 Southeast Asian Economic Outlook An overview of SAEO 2010 Near term macroeconomic prospects Medium term economic outlook Regional integration Transport Infrastructure and Regional Integration Part I: Regional Economic Monitor Part II: Thematic Focus 3 Outline 1. Near term macroeconomic prospects 2. Medium term growth and development outlook Rebalancing growth Regional integration Transport infrastructure development 3. Fiscal frameworks 4 2

3 1. Near term macroeconomic prospects 2. Medium term growth and development outlook Rebalancing growth Regional integration Transport infrastructure development 3. Fiscal frameworks 5 V shape recover in 2010 GDP growth of six ASEAN countries (in %) Source : OECD Development Centre, MPF SAEO 2010 The cut off date for data is 1 October

4 110 Near term outlook: ASEAN recover moderates Asian Business Ccle Indicators: Composite leading ASEAN average indicators Emerging Asia average b e a g v b u o e a 1 1 g v b u o e a 1 1 g v b u o e a g v b F M A N F M A N F M A N F u o e a g v b 1 1 M A N F u o e a g 1 M A N F u M A * ASEAN average includes IDN, MYS, PHL, THA, SGP. Emerging Asia average includes ASEAN average plus China and India. Source : OECD Development Centre, ABCIS, 13 December v 1 o N Export shares of major trading partners of ASEAN countries Malasia Thailand Source: CEIC 8 4

5 Near term polic challenges from SAEO 2010 Shifting macroeconomic policies towards more normal stances is necessar but requires caution Strengthening regional co operation, in particular monitoring and surveillance, is important 9 1. Near term macroeconomic prospects 2. Medium term growth and development outlook Rebalancing growth Regional integration Transport infrastructure development 3. Fiscal frameworks 10 5

6 Medium term outlook in the region is favorable GDP growth of six ASEAN countries (in %) (average) (average) Indonesia Malasia Philippines Singapore Thailand Viet Nam Average of six countries Source : OECD Development Centre, MPF SAEO 2010 The cut off date for data is 1 October Rebalancing of growth is critical to sustaining growth Output gaps of ASEAN countries Source : OECD Development Centre, MPF SAEO

7 Rebalancing growth will differ across countries Current account balance of six ASEAN countries (in % of GDP) Source : OECD Development Centre, MPF SAEO Average tariff rate under AFTA, % Closer integration in ASEAN and East Asia Share of intra regional trade (Percentage of total trade) Source: SAEO

8 ASEAN 6* Trade in ASEAN Priorit Sectors (USD Billion, Average) China EX (blue) IM (red) Source: SAEO 2010 IDN, MYS, PHL, SGP, THA, VNM ( av.) 15 Turning the Region s s Diversit into Opportunities Population in 2009 (p) (Million) GDP per capita in 2009 (e) (US $ PPP) Sources: ASEAN Secretariat; IMF; (p) Preliminar; (e) Estimates 16 8

9 Transport infrastructure Transport infrastructure development is central to promoting ASEAN integration and reducing gaps among and within its member countries. New financing method can promote private infrastructure investment in Southeast Asia (> PPP/revenue bonds in Thailand) Near term macroeconomic prospects 2. Medium term growth and development outlook Rebalancing growth Regional integration Transport infrastructure development 3. Fiscal frameworks 18 9

10 Setting credible fiscal frameworks is important Fiscal balance of general government in six ASEAN countries (in % of GDP) Source : OECD Development Centre, MPF SAEO Strengthening of medium term framework should be guided b Fiscal rules Independent fiscal institutions Medium term budgetar frameworks 20 10

11 Conclusions ASEAN economies have emerged strongl from the global crisis, but rebalancing is critical to sustaining growth in the medium term. In particular, several structural issues need to be addressed. Importance of national development plans Credible fiscal framework Further regional integration in ASEAN; Infrastructure development ( transport infrastructure) 21 Southeast Asian Economic Outlook: A Tool for Polic Dialogue Contact: dev.asia@oecd.org 22 11