Money Morning 10 May 2013

Transcription

1 Index Page No. Page No. Corporate News 2 Board Meetings 4 Macro Economic News 2 Bulk Deals 5 Derivative Corner 3 Price Shockers 5 Event Calendar 4 Results Corner 5 Corporate Actions 4 Indian Indices % Last Close 1 Day MTD YTD Sensex 19,939 (.3) Nifty 6,5 (.3) CNX Midcap 7,984 (.7) 2.1 (6.1) CNX IT 6, Bankex 12,596 (.4).3 1. Auto 11,21 (.3).6 (3.5) Metal 8,85 (1.5) 1.8 (2.5) FMCG 6, Global Indices % Last Close 1 Day MTD YTD Nifty vs Institutional Movement Shanghai 2,233 (.6) 2.6 (1.2) Nikkei , (` Mn) (4) (8) 5999 Provisional Figures for Investments Straits Times 3, Hang Seng 23,211 (.3) DJIA 15,83 (.1) S&P 5 1,627 (.4) FTSE 6, Dollar Index 83 (.1) Live Markets As on 73 hours IST Shanghai Nikkei SGX Nifty Hang Seng Current Quote 2,233 14,582 6,72 23,179 %.% 2.8%.1% (.1%) (12) 2-May 3-May 6-May 7-May 8-May 9-May 57 Volumes Moving Average (Rs bn) 1 Day 5 Day 3 Day FII (LHS) MF (LHS) Nifty (RHS) BSE CASH NSE CASH NSE F&O Nifty vs India VIX Apr 3-Apr 2-May 3-May 6-May 7-May 8-May 9-May Nifty Spot (LHS) INDIA VIX (RHS) Institutional Activities (Net) Spot market 1 Day MTD YTD FII (Rs bn) MF (Rs bn) (4.8) (41.1) (157.5) Bond Market Historical Data (%) 1 Day 1M 1 Yr 1Yr Yield (G-Sec) Currency Market % Last Close 1day MTD YTD INR/USD (.1) (.8) 1.4 INR/EURO (.3) (1.3) 1.8 INR/GBP (.5) (1.4) 5.3 Commodities Update Unit Close 1 Day % MTD YTD Crude Oil(NYME $/Bbl 96 (.3) Gold (OTC) $/Oz 1,461.1 (1.1) (12.8) Copper (LME) $/MT 7,331 (.9) 4.4 (7.3) Aluminum (LME) $/MT 1,862 (.8) 1.6 (8.8) Sugar (LIFFE) $/MT 486 (.2) (3.7) (7.2) Zinc (LME) $/MT 1,872 (1.2).2 (1.) Baltic Dry Index 889 (.3) Source: Bloomberg Page No: 1

2 Corporate News/Results Corner Jubilant Foodworks (JFW) posted 4QFY13 result below expectation; SSSG moderates to single digit of 7.7% - Stock will react negatively in short term JFW net sales increased by 29.2% YoY to Rs mn led by opening of 24 new stores. SSSG moderated to 7.7%, as against expectation of 14%. EBITDA increased by 16.5% YoY to Rs mn and margin contracted by 18 bps to 16.7%, out of which 8 bps impact was on account of Dunkin Donut. The slowdown in SSG is unable to cover the inefficiencies of new stores, thereby leading to pressure on operating margins. Overall, PAT increased by 11.5% YoY to Rs mn. We believe the stock to negatively in short term. In long term, the business model is robust and we will review our earning estimates, shortly. Yen fell to 4 years low against USD; 1% deprecation in Yen would benefit 27-3 bps improvement in EBITDA margin for Maruti; Positive for Maruti in the short to medium term. Yen has depreciated to a 4 year lows against US dollar ($1=11.12 JPY). On JPY/INR, it stands at.53 INR. As Maruti s dependability on Yen is 19% of sales (components imports and royalty payments); thus 1% deprecation in Yen would directly yield a benefit of 27-3 bps improvement in EBITDA margin. Deprecation would help them to pass on the half of the benefits to customers in the weak environment to boost sales. Macro Economic and Other News International News Government reviews target of doubling exports by 214 Japanese Yen fall past 1, first since 29 The govt. is reviewing the target of $5 bn in exports by March Japanese Yen weakened further to as low as 11.2 per dollar, 214 in view of the global and domestic economic slowdown. first since April 29. Data showed Japanese became net buyers The commerce department has held a review meeting and of foreign bonds, snapping the longest selling streak since Jan 1. decided to float a discussion paper as part of the mid-term review. Jobless claims in U.S. decline below pre-recession low The number of Americans filing claims for jobless claims benefits India 1-yr bond yields dropped to 21 low fell by 4, to 323K for the week ended May 4, fewest since India s bonds yield on the 8.15% notes due June 222 dropped Jan 8, showing employers have enough confidence in the nine basis points to 7.61%, lowest since July 21 on optimism economic outlook to hold onto workers. cooling inflation will allow the central bank to add to this year s three interest-rate cuts. Source: Economic Times, Business Line, Business Standard, Times of India, DNA Money, Mint, Financial Express, Bloomberg Page No: 2

3 Nifty Grid % in Price Short Covering Daily Price (%) Profit Booking/ long Unwinding < 2 SIEMENS HCLTECH PNB 1 (1) (2) < WIPRO LUPIN MARUTI RANBAXY AMBUJACEM HINDALCO INFY ONGC HDFC HINDUNILVR LT GAIL HEROMOTOCO HDFCBANK DLF TCS SBIN ITC ULTRACEMCO BPCL BHEL NTPC BANKBARODA M&M TATAMOTORS GRASIM IDFC KOTAKBANK BAJAJ-AUTO CAIRN ICICIBANK TATAPOWER BHARTIARTL POWERGRID SESAGOA RELIANCE COALINDIA JPASSOCIAT CIPLA TATASTEEL SUNPHARMA RELINFRA DRREDDY ACC AXISBANK ASIANPAINT JINDALSTEL < > Daily % in Open Interest* (Futures Current month) Long Built Up Short Built Up Note: Summation of three series of future Nifty open interest built up (Current expiry) FII Deri Watch (2) (4) () (8) (1) (12) (14) Apr 29-Apr 3-Apr 2-May 3-May 6-May 7-May 8-May 9-May Put OI Call OI FII FUT B/S FII FUT OI CHNG Nifty Spot Page No: 3

4 Event Calendar Economy Monday 6 May Tuesday 7 May Wednesday 8 May Thursday 9 May Friday 1 May Domestic HSBC Markit Services PMI Apr (Actual 5.7, Prior 51.4) IIP YoY Mar (Exp 2.4%, Prior.6%) Global China HSBC Service PMI Apr (Actual 51.1, Prior 54.3) Euro Zone PMI Composite Apr F (Actual 46.9, Exp 46.6, Prior 46.5) Euro Zone Retail Sales (MoM) Mar (Actual -.1%, Exp.1%, Prior -.2%) Euro Zone Retail Sales (YoY) Mar (Actual - 2.4%, Exp. 2.2%, Prior -1.7%) Australia: RBA Cash Target (Actual 2.75%, Exp 3.%, Prior 3.%) Germany: Factory Orders MoM (sa) Mar (Actual 2.2%, Exp -.5%, Prior 2.2%) YoY (nsa) Mar (Actual -.4%, Exp -2.9%, Prior -.2%) France: Industrial Production (MoM) Mar (Actual -.9%, Exp -.3%, Prior.8%) (YoY) Mar (Actual -2.5%, Exp -1.4%, Prior -2.9%) China: Exports YoY Apr (Actual 14.7%, Exp 1.%, Prior 1.%) China: Imports YoY Apr (Actual 16.8%, Exp 13.%, Prior 14.1%) China: Trade Balance Apr (Actual $18.16B, Exp $15.5B, Prior - $.88B) US: MBA Mortgage Applications (Actual 7.%, Prior 1.8%) Germany: Industrial Production MoM (sa) Mar (Actual 1.2%, Exp -.1%, Prior.6%) YoY (nsa wda) Mar (Actual -2.5%, Exp - 3.9%, Prior -1.7%) China: CPI (YoY) Apr (Actual 2.4%, Exp. 2.3%, Prior 2.1%) China: PPI (YoY) Apr (Actual - 2.6%, Exp. -2.3%, Prior - 1.9%) South Korea: 7-Day Repo Rate (Actual 2.5%, Prior 2.75%) US: Initial Jobless Claims (Actual 323K, Exp 335K, Prior 327K) US: Continuing Claims (Actual 35K, Exp 318K, Prior 332K) UK: Industrial Production (MoM) Mar (Actual.7%, Exp..2%, Prior.9%) (YoY) Mar (Actual -1.4%, Exp. -1.6%, Prior -2.5%) UK: BOE Interest Rates (Actual.5%, Exp..5%, Prior.5%) Japan: Current Account Balance YOY% (Actual - 4.3%, Exp. -5.7%, Prior - 47.%) Hong Kong: GDP sa (QoQ) Apr (Exp..7%, Prior 1.2%) GDP (YoY) Apr (Exp. 2.7%, Prior 2.5%) Germany: Current Account (EURO) Mar (Exp. 19.5B, Prior 16.B) Source: Bloomberg Corporate Actions Ex Date Company Purpose Reliance Industries Annual General Meeting/ 1-May Limited Dividend Rs. 9 Per Equity Share Annual General Meeting/Dividend 1-May Bosch Limited Rs 6 Per Share Board Meetings Date Company Results Dividend 1-May Reliance Communications Limited 1-May Balrampur Chini Mills Limited 1-May Ashok Leyland Limited 1-May Central Bank of India 1-May Punj Lloyd Limited 1-May NTPC Limited 1-May United Bank of India 11-May Dena Bank 13-May Bank of Baroda Page No: 4

5 Bulk Deal Company Acquirer Qty Price Seller Qty Price Pvr Limited Macquarie Bank Limited N.A Lakshmi Mach Works Lakshmi Cargo Company Ltd The Lakshmi Mills Company Limited Mm Forgings Ltd. N.A. = Not Available Source: BSE & NSE N.A Hdfc Mutual Fund A/C Hdfc Midcap Opportunities Fund Price Shockers Gainers Losers Company Close price (`) Price (`) Price (%) Company Close price (`) Price (`) Price (%) National Alum JUBL FOOD 1,18.8 (81.5) (7.4) PNB Sun TV Network (17.1) (3.9) Siemens Indiabulls Real Est 77.4 (3.1) (3.9) JPPOWER Sun Pharma (36.7) (3.7) Berger Paints Wockhardt 1,784.7 (68.5) (3.7) Pidilite Inds Asian Paints 4,673.6 (176.2) (3.6) Reliance Power Jindal Steel 318. (11.3) (3.4) Indian Bank Max India (7.) (3.1) HCL Tech Apollo Tyres 95. (3.1) (3.1) Muthoot Fin NMDC (3.8) (3.) Coromandel Intl TV18 Broadcast 28.9 (.9) (2.9) Bank of India Gitanjali Gems (17.3) (2.8) Century Tex CRISIL (25.6) (2.6) Essar Oil Mphasis 41.9 (1.4) (2.5) MMTC Axis Bank 1,452.8 (37.3) (2.5) Source: BSE Results Corner Revenue Date Company Mar 13E Revenue Mar 12 EBITDA Mar 13E PAT Mar 13E PAT Mar 12 YoY % (Rs. Mn.) (Rs. Mn.) YoY % (Rs. Mn.) (Rs. Mn.) (Rs. Mn.) 1-May Apollo Tyres 32,358 32,314 % 3,757 1,593 1,57 1% 1-May Ashok Leyland* 36,374 42,358-14% 3,379 1,582 2,687-41% 1-May Balrampur Chin* 7,173 5,778 24% 1, ,299-34% 1-May Cummins India* 11,244 1,213 1% 2,63 1,612 1,446 11% 1-May Essar Oil* 239, ,14 39% 12,715 3,587-5,15-1-May NTPC* 17, ,636 5% 42,196 26,34 25,934 1% 1-May Punj Lyd 3,71 3,19 2% 2, % 1-May Rel Comm 54,92 45,78 18% 16,185 1,356 3,32-59% Source: Bloomberg Page No: 5

6 Research Team Vivek Mahajan Hemant Thukral Head of Research Head Derivatives Desk Fundamental Team Avinash Nahata Head of Fundamental Desk Akhil Jain Metals & Mining/Mid Caps Sunny Agrawal FMCG/Cement/Mid Caps Sumit Jatia Banking & Finance Shreyans Mehta Construction/Real Estate Dinesh Kumar Information Technology/Auto Pradeep Parkar Database Analyst Quantitative Team Jyoti Nangrani Sr. Technical Analyst Sudeep Shah Technical Analyst Advisory Support Indranil Dutta Advisory Desk HNI Suresh Gardas Advisory Desk Sandeep Pandey Advisory Desk ABML research is also accessible in Bloomberg at ABMR Page No: 6

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