TRADING TODAY. December 19, Technical Desk. Dealing Desk. Statistical Data. Third Party Products Update

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1 TRADING TODAY December 19, 2016 Indices Today s % close chg Sensex Nifty Nifty Bank Nifty BSE BSE Mid-Cap Technical Desk Dealing Desk Statistical Data Third Party Products Update BSE Small-Cap BSE Auto BSE Health BSE FMCG BSE IT BSE PSU BSE Bankex BSE Oil & Gas BSE Metal BSE Cons Dur Technical Desk Market Outlook: Markets traded within the previous weeks range with a negative bias. Due to lack luster trade, follow-thru buying was missing. Our view, Every Pullback Remains Selling Opportunity remains unchanged. It continues to be Sell on Rallies Market. Nifty remained under selling pressure throughout the session. Resistance is seen at 8230 followed by 8275 level. As long as it sustains below these levels, it is likely to remain under pressure. On sustaining below 8120 level, it can extend down till 8050 level followed 8000 level. Failure to sustain below 8120 can see a pullback toward 8180 level and 8230 level. BSE Cap Good BSE Realty BSE Power Support: 8120 / 8180 Resistance: 8180 / 8230 Levels to Watch Sensex Nifty Day s High Day s Low Nifty Intraday Levels to Watch Support Resistance Nifty 8120 / / DSMA DSMA 8386 Equity Advisory Desk Tel.: Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. December 19,

2 Weekly Technical Outlook Indices Nifty Bank Nifty Range 8330 / / Resistance 8220 / / Support 8050 / / Outlook: Markets traded within the previous weeks range with a negative bias. Due to lack luster trade, follow-thru buying was missing. Our view, Every Pullback Remains Selling Opportunity remains unchanged. It continues to be Sell on Rallies Market. NIFTY On the weekly time frame, Nifty has formed an Inside Bar, i.e. High & Low of the current bar remain within the previous Bar. This shows that the upside pullback has come to a Halt. As long as it holds below Resistance of 8220 (200 Days SMA) followed by 8280 (High of previous bar) & 8330 (cluster of retracements), it is likely to remain under pressure. A break below 8050 (Low of previous bar) will lead to further downside till levels, where support is seen. A decisive break below 7900 (50% retracement of the move from to ) can see further weakness till zone, which can be followed by 7350 levels (over the next few weeks). For Nifty to move higher a weekly close above 8330 is required until then it remains weak & every pullback remains Selling Opportunities. Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. December 19,

3 Bank nifty: Bank Nifty: It also formed an Inside Bar (weekly chart), which means upside can be restricted, unless we see a decisive break & close above the Inside Bar. Bank Nifty closed at , which is the lowest weekly close in past 23 weeks. It is likely to remain under pressure as long as it holds below resistance of zone. Support remains at & (38.20% retracement of the move from to 20575), below which it can extend weakness till zone. Below this, further weakness can be seen. Bank-Nifty / Nifty ratio - remains flat. While the ratio has given a breakdown from an upward-sloping channel, it is likely to remain under pressure. This is another negative data point for the Market s direction as this ratio is directly proportional to Markets Direction. Bank-Nifty / Nifty ratio can weaken another 5-6% over the next few weeks. As expected, ZEELTD, HUL, ITC, HMCL, BHEL, GRASIM, ACC, BPCL, remained nearly 4-5% down in previous week Stock that can under-perform this week EIM, BOSCH, CIPLA, NTPC, SUNPH, BAJAUTO, HMCL, HCLTECH, TATAPOWER Stock that can out-perform this week TAMO, RIL, INFY, PWRGD, INFRATEL 10 Nifty stocks that gave lowest weekly close in past 5 or above months: ITC, ACC, BHEL, UTCEM, HDFCBK, APAINT, SUNPH, AURO, COAL, KMB follow-thru selling in these names can lead to further weakness. Technical Recommendations Positional Calls Date Stocks Action Reco. Price Stop-loss Target Current price % change Comment Biocon Dec 940 PE Buy % Open Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. December 19,

4 Pivot Table Name Daily Close S2 S1 PP R1 R2 ACC 1, , , , , , ADANIPORTS AMBUJACEM ASIANPAINT AUROPHARMA AXISBANK BAJAJ-AUTO 2, , , , , , BANKBARODA BHARTIARTL BHEL BOSCHLTD 20, , , , , , BPCL CIPLA COALINDIA DRREDDY 3, , , , , , EICHERMOT 21, , , , , , GAIL GRASIM HCLTECH HDFC 1, , , , , , HDFCBANK 1, , , , , , HEROMOTOCO 3, , , , , , HINDALCO HINDUNILVR ICICIBANK IDEA INDUSINDBK 1, , , , , , INFRATEL INFY 1, , , , ITC KOTAKBANK LT 1, , , , , , LUPIN 1, , , , , , M&M 1, , , , , , MARUTI 5, , , , , , NTPC ONGC POWERGRID RELIANCE 1, , , , , , SBIN SUNPHARMA TATAMOTORS TATAMTRDVR TATAPOWER TATASTEEL TCS 2, , , , , , TECHM ULTRACEMCO 3, , , , , , WIPRO YESBANK 1, , , , , , Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. December 19,

5 Dealing Desk Investment Ideas Strategy should be to Buy idea like J Kumar Infra projects Ltd JKIL reported 2QFY17 earnings of Rs230m (+5% YoY) which were 5% below our expectations. Revenue declined 6% YoY as the execution suffered owing to heavy monsoons in Jul-Oct 16. EBITDA margin remained stable at 18.2% due to execution of high-margin work. The positives were commencement of Mumbai Metro work and ramp-up of JNPT road orders. Mumbai metro contributed 20% to JKIL s 2Q revenue with quarterly billing of Rs700m. JNPT execution was Rs400m vs Rs300m QoQ. 1HFY17 forms 42% of our full-year earnings forecast of Rs1.2bn (+19% YoY). We maintain our FY17/18 earnings forecasts as we are confident of strong execution ramp in Mumbai Metro (64% of current orderbook) and JNPT Road (17% of orderbook). BMC litigation is still under jurisdiction but it is unlikely to impact JKIL s fundamentals. We maintain BUY with TP of INR312. Stock is available at PER of 9.8x FY18E. Market Cap 1600 cr Year 2017 E 2018 E 2019 E EBITA Margin (%) EPS (Rs) ROE (%) At CMP, trading at EV/EBITDA Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. December 19,

6 Statistical Data Derivatives Update Day before yesterday 15- Dec -16 Yesterday 16- Dec -16 Changes OI Value cr. OI Value cr. OI Value cr. NIFTY DEC 15,584,400 12,745 14,874,900 12,117-7,09, NIFTY JAN 19,04,925 1,565 21,41,025 1,752 2,36, NIFTY FEB 2,54, ,63, ,750 7 MINIFTY DEC BANKNIFTY DEC 20,80,120 3,839 21,27,000 3,900 46, BANKNIFTY JAN 1,16, ,12, ,960-9 CNX IT DEC 37, , NFTYMCAP50 DEC DJIA DEC 26, , S&P500 DEC 2,08, ,08, FTSE100 DEC Index Future Total -- 18, , Stock Future DEC -- 67, , Stock Future JAN -- 2, , Stock Future Total -- 69, , Over All OI -- 88, , Nifty Near Month Future Premium to Cash was avg. 5-6 Rs. Market Turn Over was good to Rs. 2,46,835 Cr. (BSE + NSE + NSE F&O) Advance Decline Ratio Advances Declines Unchanged Ratio 1,118 1, :1 Sector Updates Sectors METAL BANKEX OIL & GAS PSU FMCG % Change -1.58% -0.55% -0.93% -0.87% -0.67% Exchange Volumes Exchange BSE Cash NSE Cash NSE F&O 16- Dec ,140 18,134 2,25,592 Total 2,46,866 Implied Volatility for ATM Options (Dec) Call Put 15- Dec 16- Dec 15- Dec 16- Dec Put Call Ratio for (Open Interest) 15- Dec 16- Dec Nifty C.M All Expiry FII - MF Activity as on 16- Dec (Prov) FII (Cr) DII (Cr) Cash Buy 6,835 2,184 Sell 6,925 2,154 F&O Net FO Ind Fut Ind Options Stock Fut Stk Options World Markets Indices Current Net Change % Change Dow Jones 19, % S & P 500 2, % Nasdaq 5, % FTSE 7, % CAC 4, % DAX 11, % Hang Seng* 21, % * Indices at 7:45 AM Currency Forex Current Net Change % Change US Dollar* % * Current levels at that point of time Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. December 19,

7 Private Wealth Desk Equity Oriented Mutual Funds Absolute (%) CAGR (%) Investment Scheme Name Fund Manager Sub Category 6 M 9 M 1 Y 2 Y 3 Y 5 Y Horizon DSPBR Tax Saver Fund Rohit Singhania Franklin India Taxshield Lakshmikanth Reddy Equity - ELSS Reliance Tax Saver (ELSS) Fund Ashwani Kumar Birla SL Frontline Equity Fund Mahesh Patil ICICI Pru Top 100 Fund Sankaran Naren Large-cap SBI BlueChip Fund Sohini Andani DSPBR Small & Mid Cap Fund Vinit Sambre HDFC Mid-Cap Opportunities Fund Chirag Setalvad Mid-cap Sundaram Select Midcap S. Krishnakumar Birla SL Equity Fund Anil Shah L&T India Value Fund Venugopal M. Multi Cap MOSt Focused Multicap 35 Fund Gautam Sinha Roy Birla SL Balanced '95 Fund Mahesh Patil HDFC Balanced Fund Chirag Setalvad Balanced - Equity Oriented ICICI Pru Balanced Fund Sankaran Naren Franklin Build India Fund Anand Radhakrishnan Infrastructure ICICI Pru Banking & Fin Serv Fund Vinay Sharma Banks & Financial Services ICICI Pru FMCG Fund Vinay Sharma FMCG Reliance Pharma Fund Sailesh Raj Bhan Pharma & Health Care NIFTY NIFTY CRISIL Balanced Fund S&P BSE Mid-Cap NIFTY FMCG S&P BSE BANKEX S&P BSE Health Care Past performance is not indicative of future results Report As on 30th November Years 2 to 3 Years 3 Years Plus 2 to 3 Years 2 Years Plus Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. December 19,

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