Money Morning 19 January 2015

Transcription

1 Index Page No. Page No. Corporate News 2 Event Calendar 4 Macro-Economic News 2 Bulk Deals 5 Derivative Corner 3 Price Shockers 5 Indian Indices % Last Close 1 Day MTD YTD Sensex 28, Nifty 8, CNX Midcap 12, CNX IT 11,660 (0.1) Bankex 19,223 (0.1) Auto 19, Metal 10, (6.5) (6.5) FMCG 8, Nifty vs Institutional Movement (` Mn) Provisional Figures for Investments (5000) (10000) 9-Jan 12-Jan 13-Jan 14-Jan 15-Jan 16-Jan FII (LHS) MF (LHS) Nifty (RHS) Source: NSE Nifty vs India VIX Jan 8-Jan 9-Jan 12-Jan 13-Jan 14-Jan 15-Jan 16-Jan Nifty Spot (LHS) INDIA VIX (RHS) Source: NSE Global Indices 1 Day MTD YTD Shanghai 3,376 (3.9) (0.9) (0.9) Nikkei ,864 (0.9) (2.8) (2.8) Straits Times 3,301 (0.9) (1.7) (1.7) Hang Seng 24,104 (1.8) DJIA 17, (1.7) (1.7) S&P 500 2, (1.9) (1.9) FTSE 6, (0.2) (0.2) Dollar Index Live Markets As on 08:15 hours IST Hang Nikkei SGX Nifty Seng Current Quote 3,206 16,958 8,575 23,901 % ( % 0.6% (0.8 Volumes Moving Average (Rs bn) 1 Day 5 Day 30 Day BSE CASH NSE CASH NSE F&O Institutional Activities (Net) 1 Day MTD YTD FII (Rs bn) MF (Rs bn) (7.2) Bond Market 1 Day 1M 1 Yr 10Yr Yield (G-Sec) Currency Market 1day MTD YTD INR/USD INR/EURO INR/GBP Commodities Update Last Close Shanghai Last Close % Spot market Historical Data ( % % Unit Close 1 Day MTD YTD Crude Oil(NYME $/Bbl 48 (0.8) (9.4) (9.4) Gold (OTC) $/Oz 1,277 (0.3) Copper (LME) $/MT 5, (9.4) (9.4) Aluminum (LME) $/MT 1, Sugar (LIFFE) $/MT 399 (0.2) Zinc (LME) $/MT 2, (3.7) (3.7) Baltic Dry Index 741 (1.1) (5.2) (5.2) Source: Bloomberg Page No: 1

2 Corporate News/Results Corner RIL s 3QPAT declines as crude oil prices decline sharply. Negative for RIL in the short term. RIL posted sales of ~Rs.802bn while its PAT fell 7.&% YoY to ~Rs.50.9bn led by lower sales and lower GRM. Gross refining margins (GRMs) stood at $7.3 a barrel below street estimates largely led by higher inventory losses. RIL had reported GRMs of $7.6 and $8.3 a barrel in the year-ago and previous quarter, respectively. The profit has been largely supported by higher other income. Overall the company has posted muted set of results and the stock is expected to react negatively in the short term Axis Bank delivers steady performance Positive from medium to long term perspective Axis Bank witnessed all-round steady performance with PAT growth of 18.4% YoY to Rs 19 bn. Credit growth was strong at 23% YoY much higher than industry level of ~11%. Even NIM was maintained at strong level of 3.93% which supported the healthy NII growth of 20.3% YoY to Rs 35.9 bn. Other income surprised positively with 24% YoY growth to Rs 20.4 bn. Treasury gains were strong at with 21% QoQ growth Rs 3.3 bn while the fee income grew at a healthy pace of 16% YoY to Rs 16.9 bn. Asset quality was better than expectations as slippages were lower at Rs 7 bn while fresh restructured assets stood at mere Rs 1.3 bn. Overall, we believe steady performance of the bank to continue with healthy PAT growth trajectory on the back of i) low interest rate cycle and ii) improving economic environment. Positive from medium to long term perspective Symphony posted healthy set of numbers for Dec14-ending qtr Positive in short term for Sumphony; Further details awaited in concall today For 2QFY15 (Dec14-ending qtr), Symphony has posted 30.0% YoY growth in revenue to Rs mn, led by 27.4% YoY growth in sales air coolers units and 3.4% YoY growth in realization to Rs 6277/unit. Sales in Indian operations increased by 33.5% YoY to Rs mn and RoW sales increased by 9.9% YoY to Rs mn. EBIT margin in Indian operations expanded by 487 bps to 34.7%, whereas margins has contracted by 655 bps in RoW operations to 27.8%. EBITDA increased by 48.4% YoY to Rs mn, whereas EBITDA margin expanded by 408 bps to 33.6%. PAT increased by 45% YoY to Rs mn. Overall, the company has posted healthy set of numbers. The stock will react positively in short term and further details are awaited in concall today. Macro-Economic and Other News Rate cut doesn't change sovereign credit profile overnight: Fitch Reserve Bank Governor Raghuram Rajan today lowered the repo rate by a token 0.25%to 7.75% two weeks ahead of the scheduled monetary policy on February 3. "From a rating perspective, what matters is whether a credible low inflation environment will be created in the country. Both the RBI and the government have taken measures in that regard,". It will be interesting to see if the budget will include a clear and credible strategy to improve the fiscal position," he said, adding though the timing of today's rate cut has come as a surprise. SBI Composite Index for January shows declining momentum: The SBI Composite Index, an indicator for tracking India's manufacturing activity, registered declining month-on-month momentum, amid sluggish credit growth and elevated interest rates. On a year-on-year basis however, the index inched up to 52.1 in January (signalling moderate growth) from 50.6 (low growth) in December "Increase in automotive sales, and benign inflation are the positive factors contributing to the index. But, sluggish credit growth to major sectors and elevated interest rate has dragged the index downwards," International News U.S. Industrial Production Shows Modest Pullback In December With utilities output showing a sharp pullback, a modest drop in U.S. industrial production in the month of December. The industrial production edged down by 0.1% in December after surging up by 1.3% in November. The modest pullback matched economist estimates. The drop in industrial production was largely due to a substantial decrease in utilities output, which plunged by 7.3% in December after jumping by 4.2% in November. South Korea PPI Dips 0.9% In December Producer prices in South Korea were down 0.9% on month in December following the 0.3% decline in November. Among the individual components of the data, prices for agricultural, forestry and marine products added 2.6%, while manufacturing industry products dropped 1.6%, electric power, gas and water supply eased 0.1% and services were flat. On a yearly basis, producer prices tumbled 2.0% after losing 0.9% in the previous month. Source: Economic Times, Business Line, Business Standard, Times of India, DNA Money, Mint, Financial Express, Bloomberg, RTT News Page No: 2

3 < Daily Price ( < Money Morning Nifty Grid % in Price Short Covering 2 POWERGRID M&M COALINDIA HINDUNILVR HCLTECH SUNPHARMA BHEL Long Built Up 1 LT CIPLA TECHM DRREDDY 0 ICICIBANK RELIANCE TATAPOWER ITC AXISBANK INDUSINDBK NTPC ONGC NMDC ASIANPAINT HDFCBANK (1) HDFC ACC DLF GRASIM ULTRACEMCO BAJAJ-AUTO BPCL KOTAKBANK TCS RELINFRA TATASTEEL JINDALSTEL AMBUJACEM LUPIN GAIL INFY MARUTI Profit Booking / long Unw ind (2) TATAMOTORS SBIN BANKBARODA IDFC HEROMOTOCO BHARTIARTL CAIRN PNB HINDALCO Short Built Up < > Daily % in Open Interest* (Futures Current month) Note: Summation of three series of future Page No: 3

4 Event Calendar Economy Monday 19 Jan Tuesday 20 Jan Wednesday 21 Jan Thursday 22Jan Friday 23 Jan Domestic Global US: US: CPI MoM Dec (Exp 0.20%, Prior CPI YoY Dec (Exp 0.70%, Prior 1.00 RPI MoM Dec (Exp 0.20%, Prior RPI YoY Dec (Exp 1.70%, Prior Germany : PPI MoM Dec(Exp %, Prior PPI YoY Dec(Exp %, Prior China: Industrial Production YoY Dec (Exp 7.40%, Prior GDP SA QoQ 4Q(Exp 1.70%, Prior 1.90 GDP YoY 4Q(Exp 7.20%, Prior 7.30 Jobless Claims Dec(Exp -20k, Prior ) Initial jobless claim 17 th Jan (prior 316K) Continuing Claims 10th Jan (prior 2424K) Public Sector Net Borrowing Dec (Exp 8.8 b,prior 13.4 b) Market US Manufacturing PMI Jan P(Exp 54,prior 53.90) Retail Sales Incl. Auto MoM dec(exp- 0.60%,prior 1.90 Retail Sales Incl. Auto YoY Dec(Exp3.00%,prior 6.40 Germany: Market Germany Services PMI Jan P(Exp 52.5,prior 52.10) France : Market France Manufacturing PMI Jan p(exp 48.1,prior47.5) Eurozone: Market Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jan P(Exp51,prior50.6) China: HSBC China Manufacturing PMI Jan P(Exp49.5,prior49.6) Source: Bloomberg Page No: 4

5 Bulk Deal Company Acquirer Qty Price Seller Qty Price Surya Roshni Ltd Vls Finance Ltd N A S.E. Investments Limited Agrim Marketing Private Limited Spring Infradev Pvt Ltd Mahindra Cie Automative L N A India Value Fund Iii - A Mahindcie N A India Value Fund Iii A N.A. = Not Available Source: BSE & NSE Price Shockers Gainers Losers Company Close price (` ) Price (` ) Price ( Company Close price (` ) Price (` ) Price ( SUNTV PMCFIN 54.1 (2.8) (4.9) EDELWEISS RASOYPR 0.9 (0.0) (4.5) TV18BRDCST JETAIRWAYS (18.0) (4.0) SUZLON WELCORP 66.8 (2.2) (3.1) PAGEIND 11, SOUTHBANK 29.9 (0.9) (2.8) IBULHSGFIN POLARIS (4.4) (2.6) INDIACEM J&KBANK (3.9) (2.6) SRTRANSFIN 1, AIAENG 1,057.0 (27.7) (2.6) TUBEINVEST BAJAJHLDNG 1,434.4 (36.3) (2.5) GODREJCP 1, HINDALCO (3.4) (2.4) LICHSGFIN SUPREMEIND (14.1) (2.4) ZEEL GVKPIL 9.8 (0.2) (2.4) NATCOPHARM 1, AJANTPHARM 2,483.1 (60.5) (2.4) PIPAVAVDOC RELIGARE (8.3) (2.4) JPASSOCIAT PNB (4.9) (2.3) Source: BSE Page No: 5

6 Research Team Vivek Mahajan Hemant Thukral Head of Research Head Derivatives Desk Fundamental Team Sunny Agrawal FMCG/Cement/Mid Caps Shreyans Mehta Construction/Real Estate Jaymin Trivedi Banking & Finance Pradeep Parkar Database Analyst Quantitative Team Sudeep Shah Sr.Technical Analyst Rahil Vora Technical Analyst Soni Patnaik Derivative Analyst Advisory Support Suresh Gardas Advisory Desk Salim Hajiani Advisory Desk Mohan Jaiswal Executive Research Support ABML research is also accessible in Bloomberg at ABMR Page No: 6

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